Cubs right-hander Kyle Hendricks has been dealing with shoulder discomfort for more than a month, and while initial MRIs did not reveal any structural damage, a newer MRI and second opinion revealed a capsular tear, Hendricks explained to reporters yesterday (link via Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune). While capsule tears are often ominous injuries with quite lengthy recovery periods, Hendricks’ tear is relatively small and is not expected to require surgery.
It was already known that Hendricks would not pitch again in 2022, but the diagnosis of the tear obviously adds some additional uncertainty to his long-term outlook. For now, he’ll go through a strengthening program and set his focus on being ready for the 2023 season — the final guaranteed season in a four-year, $55.5MM contract. The Cubs hold a $16MM club option for a fifth season, which comes with a $1.5MM buyout.
From 2016-20, Hendricks was one of the best and most consistent starting pitchers in the National League, logging a combined 3.00 ERA with a 21.1% strikeout rate and an excellent 5.3% walk rate in 787 innings. Hendricks was one of the sport’s most durable arms in that time, requiring only a six-week IL stay in 2017 due to tendinitis in his pitching hand and a minimal 10-day stay in 2019 due to inflammation in his right shoulder.
Since that outstanding half-decade peak, however, Hendricks’ results have tumbled rather quickly. He made 32 starts in 2021 but logged a disappointing 4.77 ERA that was far and away the worst of his career. This year’s 4.80 mark through his first 16 starts was a near identical number. Hendricks, after averaging just 0.89 homers per nine innings pitched through the first seven seasons of his career, has surrendered an average of 1.56 long balls per nine frames since Opening Day 2021. His 17.3% strikeout rate is down nearly four percentage points from that previously mentioned peak, and his 6% walk rate, while still south of the 7.6% league average among starters, is up slightly from Hendricks’ best days as well.
The hope for the Cubs, of course, is that a healthier Hendricks can return to form and rejoin a rotation that also includes veteran Marcus Stroman and 27-year-olds Justin Steele and Keegan Thompson. Right-hander Adrian Sampson, 30, has been solid through 10 starts as well. Former top prospect Adbert Alzolay, who started 21 games for the Cubs last year, has missed the entire 2022 season thus far due to a lat strain. However, he embarked on a minor league rehab assignment just yesterday and could yet return before the end of the year.
The extent to which Hendricks progresses from the tear between now and the onset of free agency will, on some level, inform the Cubs’ approach to addressing their pitching staff over the winter. Solid as Steele (3.25 ERA, 3.75 SIERA in 113 2/3 innings) and Thompson (3.97 ERA, 4.21 SIERA, 104 2/3 innings), there’ll still be a need to bring in some reinforcements. Owner Tom Ricketts recently vowed to be “very active” in free agency, although those comments perhaps deliberately stopped short of forecasting an aggressive pursuit of top-tier free agents.
Cubs starters this season rank 21st in the Majors in ERA (4.33), 24th in FIP (4.41) and 20th in SIERA (4.23). They’re also 19th in strikeout rate (20.4%) but have the game’s 10th-highest walk rate (8%). Left-handers Drew Smyly and Wade Miley are both ticketed for free agency this winter. Smyly does have a mutual option on his one-year contract, but it’s quite rare for both sides of a mutual option to be exercised and Smyly has thrown well enough that he could seek a larger guarantee or perhaps a multi-year deal on the open market.
So you mean next year his fastball will be 82 instead of the usual 88? This is horrifying news!
weren’t you the one spewing nonsense about the rangers ‘see what their spending got them’ oblivious to the rangers timeline to contention and farm situation? having never watched a game or followed the rangers clearly. wait until you learn hendricks is done and steele and sampson are gonna turn back into pumpkins. that’ll be some vicious rotation. cincinnati and pittsburgh about to wave at the cubs in their rear view mirror. the brewers can’t see you in theirs and the cardinals can’t see the brewers. sooo 5 years of last place coming? and this is coming from someone that wants ANYONE to beat the cardinals. their organization outclasses yours in every way 🙁
Huh?
the cubs are in 5th place next year, in the weakest division in baseball
Another dumb comment. The Cubs are in 3rd now. They have tons of money to spend and a lot of prospects coming. What are the Reds and Pirates gonna spend. I’ll tell you. Not a thing . Did your Mom torture you with a Teddy Bear when you were young? Trying to figure out where your Cub hatred comes from. Bet you never go camping for fear of Bears.
i wasn’t addressing you but what confused you?
the pirates and reds are building something. i don’t know if they’ll spend to supplement it, but they have much brighter futures than the cubs
LMAO
Are you from here? And by here I mean Earth.
i place much higher confidence in the pirates and the reds. the cubs could money whip them, i doubt it. as far as building from the ground up, the cubs are definitely in 5th place. in a really bad division
look how proud you are of third place with no future playoff aspirations. lol yea, just be third place in the worst division in baseball. no one will care or notice
For one Mike, the Reds have the 4th best farm in baseball and Pitt is ranked 6th. Cubs are 10th. If the cubs have young guys coming up, it sure seems like the others do as well..
Cant disagree! The Reds and the Pirates have some really good young starters. Not sure their young position players are ready though.
I just dont see the same talent level with Chucago. Madigral, & Hoener are developing in to solid major leaguers. Suzcki and Morel have shown flashes but no one else presently on the 40am roster is a star.
Tell you what else they have. 2 of the most dysfunctional Front Offices and Coaching staffs in Major League Baseball. Keep on hoping for a turnaround but as soon as those guys want to be paid , How did Hawk say it, THEY GONE! And the Pirates and Reds will keep on with their hands out waiting to take in the Revenue Sharing from the Yankees, Red Sox and Dodgers, Just like they always have and putting it in their pockets. Cheap owners make cheap decisions, Just like they always have. Unless you’re Arte Moreno and spend stupidly like a drunken sot.
Except you appear to care and notice.
What do you mean outclasses? What does class have to do with anything?
they have a major league roster that dwarfs you at 8 positions, they have 15 pitchers better than your top 3, what do you want me to say. outclassed. at. every possible. position.. and the next in line prospects, no one expected donovan or edman, they’re considered OK in st louis, when in reality they’re studs and much better than anything coming up through chicago’s pipeline. we won’t get to walker and prospects people expect to be good (in StL they’re somehow great)
were you expecting a different reply? the NL central won’t be in play for 5 years at least. if the ball bounces a certain way the brewers will pretend, the cardinals have a better 1-5, the brewers have a better 1-3, the brewers have a AAA lineup and the cardinals have a lineup with 2 putting up MVP numbers, 1-9 every position is better than the brewers. maybe the brewers in a short series, the cardinals are without question a better team. the cubs are the 5th best team in a garbage division. if ricketts ownership had any intention on winning (he doesn’t care at all) this is the time. there’s only one real team to compete with. i bet they’re 5th next year and the year after
it means being better. in the starting rotation, the bullpen, the 1-9, the farm system. those are the classes, in case you were wondering
windows are short, the cubs used theirs and sold everything off. that’s fine. the astros would have been short, but they signed 4 kids from the DR and venezuela that perform better than almost any team’s 2 starter, and they’re doing it for nothing….for years. no one can replicate that. it was a fluke. i actually don’t think the cubs prematurely closed their window, it’s just how building from the ground up works. and it’s closed. hopefully they rebuild.
Jeez someone’s Jorts all in a bunch this morning!
these are the cubs that i grew up with in st. louis. love them on the schedule. they made a fun run, but unfortunately they are going to prop up teams like the cards for the next 5 years, and propel them to the playoffs. hopefully they get blasted by the teams that had to fight to be there
Oh he’s from St. Louis. Explains the hate but not the complete nonsense he believes. I get it now.
They just found out now???? What kind of trainers and doctors do they have
A small tear can be very difficult to see in an MRI.
MRIs are incredible things but they’re not able to see everything.
A small tear with swelling and inflammation can hid the injury.
I can think of at least 5, 40 man spots that can be opened up right now. Rivas and Schwindel are now the 3rd and fourth stringers at IOWA behind Mervis and Jared Young who is intriguing to me. Bote can go. Yeah I know he’s signed for 2 more years but for peanuts. Why is Miley still here? Pay him what he’s owed and fix him up and pat him on the back and send him on his merry way. Is he still here for the September Playoff push? Mills Ba Bye. Never liked him anyway. There are about 10 other losers that can be released that aren’t on the 40 man. Dewees, Frazier, Roederer, and there are more that should be playing in Korea if nowhere else. To have a good garden, You have to get rid of the weeds.
They should’ve traded him at the deadline in 2020. He was in decline, but still serviceable, and the Cubs were going nowhere. And they should’ve traded Davies on the same day, as he was still capable of maybe being a #3. They wouldn’t have cleared the table, but might’ve landed maybe a #126 for each.
Now you’ve just gotta hope he’s healthy next year and is decent enough to build trade value for the deadline. The Cubs need to sell anything and everything they can for the next 2 seasons, and anyone that won’t be part of the team in 3 seasons should be on the sale rack.
I think you have already traded anything worth something already that doesn’t have a future with the organization.
……and put a garbage product on the field? The Cubs went through all that in the very recent past. Please not again. World Series title or not. Don’t do the rebuild thing again. The owners and management have you believe it’s to rebuild their farm system but all it is is a great way to keep payroll down.
Saw ‘tear’ in the headline before seeing the player name and immediately figured it was about Mike Trout. Fragile guy.
Hilarious.
If you were taught to read properly you would have read how it’s about Kyle Hendricks. Remember, you read left to right from top to bottom.
Saw ‘bottom’ before seeing the rest of the comment and figured you were referring to the fact that Trout is having the worst season of his career with the only remotely possible exceptions being 2020 or last year and how he’s a 1-dimensional shell of the player he used to be and how he will average 2-4 WAR of actual production for the next 3 years with a possible ceiling of 5 WAR in any given season during that time.
From the future comes TrueReality.
I don’t know what learning disability you have but I pity you.
Saw ‘disability’ before seeing the rest of the comment and figured it was referring to Trout’s entrenchment on the IL. PS it’s referred to as ‘injured’ now, not ‘disabled’.
This comment thread is a great reminder the mute button exists. Since you read starting at the end, I’ll finish with goodbye.
“This comment thread is a great reminder the mute button exists. Since you read starting at the end, I’ll finish with goodbye.”
Saw ‘end’ before seeing the rest of the comment and figured it was referring to how Trout’s prime ended with the 2019 season at the latest (arguably 2018 since 2018 was the last season he was a complete player, but definitely no later than 2019).
PS that no-neck having, HGH-using, egomaniac’s career OPS just fell below 1.000 and strong chance it will never reach 1.000 again
Why would you get on a message forum and then hit the Mute Button? That’s what’s wrong with the whole damn country. If you don’t agree with MY opinion then I’ll tune you out. Grow up. Even if I don’t like it, Spew away as long as it’s clean.
They were referring to TrueReality being spewing Trout hatred
How can you call Trout an ego-maniac? The dude is one of the most humble players in the sport. Heck, he’s not marketable because how humble he plays the game. Oh no, his OPS fell below 1.000, now he’ll only be 59 points better than Willie Mays, 12 points better than Mickey Mantle, and 73 points better than Frank Robinson in the same stat. Even if Trout plays left field and DH for the rest of his career and low-ball him with an OPS below .930, he’ll still be a 4-6 WAR player.
Not sure how one mri is clear and the next there is a tear. Might be time to get a new MRI machine.
Time to hang it up Hendricks!
A minor capsular tear. These words don’t seem to go together. Hopefully all goes well and he’s ready for 2023.
There is little difference between his pitching in 2021 and 2022. Basically the same, so unless this tear has been bothering him for two seasons, not sure I’d expect much of a rebound in 2023.
I’m starting to wonder if jed hoyer or the rickett’s family banged knolln’s (nolan such kewl spelling) wife.
I think they all did Cubsfan. He’s awful proud of his favorite team leading the worst division in Baseball by 4 lousy games. His description BTW, not mine.
Lol true!
Reading these replies it looks like all grammar schools haven’t started again yet. Hoping the maturity level rises when the kiddies go back
“Solid as Steele [stats] and Thompson [stats], there’ll still be a need to bring in some reinforcements.”
You tried so hard trying to write in a casual tone that you forgot three key words.