Carlos Carrasco Diagnosed With Low-Grade Oblique Strain

The Mets announced that starter Carlos Carrasco has been diagnosed with a low-grade strain of his left oblique. The team added that recoveries from a strain of this nature typically take three-to-four weeks.

It’s not unexpected news after the right-hander was sent for an MRI this morning. Carrasco departed last night’s start against the Braves after two innings with soreness in his side, immediately raising the possibility of an oblique issue. It’s certainly not ideal that he’ll have to go on the injured list and could miss around a month of action, but the club is also fortunate he’s dodged a more serious strain that would have impacted his availability for the postseason.

Carrasco started last night’s game and made it through one inning before weather forced a 55-minute delay. The 35-year-old stayed in the contest despite the long layoff, throwing inside the facility while waiting for the rain to subside. That Carrasco felt discomfort within an inning of getting back on the mound has led to some speculation that manager Buck Showalter’s decision to stick with the veteran after the delay could’ve played a role in the injury. However, both the skipper and Carrasco told reporters they believed the injury to be coincidental, noting that Carrasco had kept himself loose and felt fine until his final pitch. (Braves manager Brian Snitker also stuck with his starter, Spencer Strider, who ended up throwing five innings and 87 pitches).

Carrasco has been an effective mid-rotation arm during his second season in Queens, pitching to a 3.92 ERA with an above-average 23.4% strikeout rate over 23 starts. He missed most of his first year as a Met with a torn right hamstring, but he’d avoided the IL thus far in 2022. Carrasco had been slated to start one half of a doubleheader against the Phillies on Saturday, but the club now seems likely to turn to swingman Trevor Williams to pair with sixth starter David Peterson, who is expected to be recalled from Triple-A Syracuse, as Anthony DiComo of MLB.com wrote last night.

The Mets hold a 4 1/2 game lead over Atlanta in the NL East. The division winner is all but certain to get the newly-instituted first-round bye in the Wild Card round, with a huge margin between the leaders in the NL East and NL Central. A starting five of Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker and Peterson is still an excellent group, but there’s no question the club would feel better with Carrasco also in the fold. They seem likely to welcome Carrasco back in some capacity before the postseason gets underway, but it remains to be seen to what extent he’ll be able to build his arm strength back up after the layoff. It’s possible he’s limited more to relief or abbreviated starting work heading into the playoffs.

The injury also has important ramifications for Carrasco contractually. The Mets hold a $14MM option on his services for 2023. That provision would vest (become guaranteed) if he throws 170 innings this season and finishes the year healthy. Carrasco has tallied 126 1/3 frames thus far, leaving him 43 2/3 innings shy of the threshold. There’s no chance for him to work that much over the final three weeks of the season, so the injury eliminates any possibility of Carrasco reaching the vesting trigger.

Of course, the Mets could deem a $14MM price point reasonable enough they exercise Carrasco’s option regardless. He’s been a valuable member of a team that could lose deGrom, Bassitt, Walker and Williams to free agency. New York will need to retain or add plenty of starting pitching this winter, and there could be value in simply keeping Carrasco around. At the same time, they already have an estimated $194MM in guaranteed commitments on the 2023 books and are facing a massive free agent class that also includes Brandon Nimmo and Edwin Díaz. Even with a payroll that may be the highest in the majors (and could well tip over $300MM), they’re likely to lose a couple key contributors from this year’s club.