In the upcoming free agent class, there’s no debate about the top available relief pitcher. Mets’ closer Edwin Diaz is arguably the best reliever in the entire sport right now and will be the jewel of that segment of free agency.
Now 28, Diaz burst onto the scene with the Mariners at the age of 22, recording 18 saves as a rookie. After two more excellent seasons as Seattle’s closer, he was traded to the Mets, partly as a way for the Mariners to get out from under Robinson Cano’s contract. Though he struggled in 2019, his first season in Queens, he righted the ship over the next couple of seasons. Coming into this year, Diaz had a career 3.23 ERA with a 38.6% strikeout rate, 8.8% walk rate and 40.2% ground ball rate.
Despite that excellent body of work, he’s somehow found a way to take his game to new heights here in 2022. Through 45 1/3 innings on the year, he has a miniscule 1.39 ERA. 48.5% of batted balls against him are going into the ground, which is a career high and well above the 43.3% league average for relievers. His 7% walk rate is a few points better than the 9.1% rate for relievers around the league. But most impressively, he is striking out 52.9% of batters who come to the plate, well beyond his career high and more than double the 23.4% average for bullpen arms. That rate is easily the best among all pitchers in baseball with at least 20 innings pitched on the year, with Josh Hader coming in a distant second at 41.9%.
Diaz’s Statcast page is blood red, with the hurler coming in the 100th percentile in terms of strikeout rate and whiff rate, 99th percentile in terms of average exit velocity, barrel percentage and chase rate, and 87th percentile in hard hit rate. Hitters aren’t hitting him and rarely inflict any damage when they do. He averages 99 mph on his fastball and 90.7 mph on his slider.
If Diaz continues pitching at this elite level, could he push for a record-breaking contract, either in total dollars or average annual value? The largest contract ever given to a relief pitcher is the five-year deal signed between Aroldis Chapman and the Yankees prior to the 2017 campaign, which was for $86MM over five years, with Chapman eligible to opt out after three. That amounts to an average annual value of $17.2MM. Also worth noting, Liam Hendriks and the White Sox signed a four-year, $54MM contract prior to the 2021 season. The last year of the contract is technically a $15MM club option with a $15MM buyout. If the club chooses to buy him out, they will pay him that $15MM deferred over a ten-year period instead of paying it all out during the 2024 campaign. This unique contract, depending on how you look at it, either has an AAV of $13.5MM over four years or $18MM over three years. For those in the latter camp, Hendriks will be included in the forthcoming analysis.
When Chapman signed his contract, he was going into his age-29 season, which is the same situation as Diaz. Hendriks was going into his age-32 season. But what about performance? Here are all three pitchers in their final year before free agency, for comparison.
- Chapman in 2016: 58 innings, 1.55 ERA, 40.5% strikeout rate, 8.1% walk rate, 46% ground ball rate.
- Hendriks in 2020: 25 1/3 innings, 1.78 ERA, 40.2% strikeout rate, 3.3% walk rate, 32% ground ball rate.
- Diaz in 2022: 45 1/3 innings, 1.39 ERA, 52.9% strikeout rate, 7% walk rate, 48.5% ground ball rate.
Here’s the three seasons leading into free agency:
- Chapman in 2014-2016: 178 1/3 innings, 1.72 ERA, 44.4% strikeout rate, 10.7% walk rate, 41.8% ground ball rate.
- Hendriks in 2018-2020: 134 1/3 innings, 2.21 ERA, 34.7% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate, 33.4% ground ball rate.
- Diaz in 2020-2022: 133 2/3 innings, 2.42 ERA, 42.7% strikeout rate, 9.1% walk rate, 39.8% ground ball rate.
I think it’s fair to say that Diaz will be entering free agency with a less consistent track record than either Hendriks or Chapman. Hendriks’ track record, broadly speaking, was less overpowering but also less wild. The shortened 2020 season was the first time he posted a strikeout rate above 40%, but he also had never posted a double-digit walk rate. Chapman had a double-digit walk rate four times prior to reaching free agency, but also got strikeouts above 40% five straight seasons from 2012 to 2016, including a 52.5% rate in 2014. Diaz had an 11.5% walk rate in 2017 and then 12.7% in the shortened 2020 campaign but hasn’t had alarming numbers of free passes apart from that. He’s also gone beyond a 40% strikeout rate three times prior to this year, though never for two seasons in a row.
Looking just at the platform seasons, Hendriks limited walks in the shortened campaign, but got far less strikeouts and ground balls than the other two. Chapman trails Diaz in every rate category, however, with Diaz just 12 2/3 innings behind in terms of the sample size. If he can maintain this over the season’s final months, he could argue that he’s a better option now than Chapman was in 2017. Also, given that Chapman’s contract will be six years old this winter, there’s an argument that the natural trajectory of inflation should lead to Diaz getting a larger contract than Chapman, if they were considered equally talented. One thing working against Diaz, however, is the qualifying offer. Chapman was traded from the Yankees to the Cubs midseason in 2016, making him ineligible to receive a QO. Diaz, on the other hand, is a lock to receive one, meaning any team that signs him would be subject to draft pick forfeiture and potentially other penalties.
All in all, it seems like Chapman and Diaz make for fairly close comps. Hendriks was a bit older and got a shorter contract, with unique accounting measures inflating the AAV on paper. Diaz will be the same age as Chapman was at the time of his contract, both of them having strong track records and dominant platform seasons. Chapman didn’t have the QO attached but Diaz will have six years of inflationary progress helping push his dollars up.
There’s still some time for Diaz to change the calculus one way or another, and there’s also the postseason to consider, as Chapman pitched for the championship Cubs in 2016. He threw 15 2/3 innings in the playoffs that year, but not quite at his level from the regular season. The competition in the postseason is naturally higher than otherwise, but Chapman put up an ERA of 3.45 in that time, with a diminished 33.9% strikeout rate, a 9.7% walk rate and 43.8% ground ball rate. Since Diaz pitches for the Mets, who have a seven-game lead in the NL East and are almost guaranteed to make the playoffs, Diaz should get a chance to showcase his talents against the game’s highest competition and on its brightest stage. If he thrives there as he’s thrived elsewhere this year, he’ll have a chance to take the throne as the game’s highest-paid reliever ever.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
So many talented Mets players are hitting FA. Some of these contracts are bound to be terrible, but the way Diaz has been pitching, he looks unhittable. Relievers are always a risk year to year, but pay the man.
Yes, they are. The most volatile position on the field.
Case in point for Diaz:
2018: Great
2019 Ugh
2020 Great
2021 Meh
2022 Great
2023 ?
Counter point: how many relievers can even be this elite every other year? Instead of evaluating relievers on a year to year basis, evaluate them per 200 IP which is closer to what a starter puts up.
Diaz from 2016-2018: 191 IP – 2.50 xFIP, 14.2 K/9
Diaz from 2019-2022: 192 IP – 2.55 xFIP, 15.5 K/9
That’s fair. Let me ask a question.
If the Mets have an opportunity to re-sign DeGrom, but it would require money that would otherwise be allocated to Diaz, what should the Mets do?
Which is easier to replace, or more valuable to a team?
Given that I had to merge 3 years to get similar production should be an good indicator of value.
I think that if a SP and a RP put up identical numbers then the SP is worth 2.5x AAV because he throws 2.5x the innings. So for example, if deGrom and Diaz both are expected to put up identical ratios over the next 5 years, then deGrom’s worth per season is 2.5x that of Diaz. If, for the sake of argument, deGrom is valued at $45mm AAV, then I would value Diaz at $18mm AAV.
Obviously, the value amounts will change based on how the Mets (and other teams) value each pitcher, but I think that’s a thorough explanation of my thought process.
Assuming both are healthy and play great down the stretch, I think the Mets, if they had to pick, would sign deGrom and not think twice about it.
But I don’t think they’ll have to pick. Cohen does not seem bothered by spending money, especially if they end up deep into the playoffs or appear in the WS.
I agree, and this was an outstanding explaination.
He’s been uneven throughout his career, and had many a meltdowns when he first arrived with the Metropolitans. No record-breaking deal.
When he first arrived with the Mets the average pro ballplayer his age was still in high A. What he did as a 22 and 23 year old shouldn’t factor into his next contract.
See Superstar’s point above. That’s how we should be judging Diaz.
Eds great, extremely nasty, fun, but to me not consistent enough year to year with his location to even think about touching with a 10 foot pole in free agency. The kind of signing fit for only a team like the Yanks or Sox who can handle it if he tanks on them.
The Mets under Cohen now fall in that group. They can afford the bad deal. That said, very unlikely the Yankees will go for a big contract for a reliever. They manufacture relievers now and will go the cheaper route. At least that’s my guess.
The Mets are about to have a 300M$ payroll – they are the Yanks, Sox, Dodgers, etc.
I think he’ll get 4/$80 million or 5/$100 million. Contingent upon him maintaining this dominance through the end of the season.
5/100 is my guess as well.
Yep, breakdown something like this:
2023: 17M (age 29)
2024: 18M (age 30)
2025: 19M (age 31)
2026: 20M (age 32)
2027: 21M (age 33)
2028: 22M Team Option w/ a 5M buyout (age 34)
Awards him the highest total and AAV contract for a reliever.
Only team I see the Mets bidding against for him is themselves. Teams with dollars already have their closers procured.
Friedman: Hold my beer
He’s good. Great even! I am so glad Helsey has emerged for my team so I can resist being green with envy. Not sarcastic. We both have closers going great right now and it makes life better.
You cardinal fans are literally, not figuratively, all the same.
They are legion. I’m not so sure!
Just saying….Helsey has had a fantastic season with pretty much no fanfare. And he has great secondary numbers. No weird strand rate or 0% HR rate. He has been the best closer in the league. Go ahead and dispute it.
4/85
No.
Hopefully, the Mets bring him back. We all know contract years is the peak of the players performance.
I wonder if this is actually true statistically.
It is. And its not even close.
Source?
bucsfan, that’s the kind of thing we are gonna require some actual statistical backing for. Personally I’m very skeptical. The causation just isn’t there generally speaking. The theory that players don’t work hard every year is borderline slander.
In the limited studies I was able to find in quick googling, there’s only a very small amount of evidence to suggest that it’s true. Although I should say that anything I just found was related to hitters only. Here’s a SABR article from awhile back (2014) if you want to dig in:
sabr.org/journal/article/do-hitters-boost-their-pe…
Michael Conforto disagrees with this comment.
Diaz has had a fabulous season and will get paid by the Mets handsomely, even record breaking, for doing such a great job. Closers are very volatile but Diaz will be worth the risk as he has learned to manage NY. Mets are used too closers that are inconsistent which Diaz has bot been in 2022. It’s Cohen’s money and he’ll want to sign him and I’m very grateful for that as a Mets fan!
LFGM!!!
Another writer with an understanding of baseball that’s limited enough that he believes that walks are definitely “bad”, and that a slightly lower walk rate is definitely “better” than a slightly higher one—all devoid of context. Or even explanation.
I’ll bite. What’s the advantage of an elevated walk rate? More base runners? Higher pitch count? The absence of swing and miss stuff?
My guess is a pitcher with a high walk rate isn’t necessarily worse than a pitcher with a lower walk rate but a higher BAA or more hard contact. However, his point is moot when you consider how volatile relievers are year to year because of the small sample size randomness associated with BABIP and HR/FB%.
@Mule: Why are you here even though the intricacies of baseball have alluded you? Ever hear of the intentional walk? Pitching around superior hitters? Refusing to give in to a batter? Etc.?
It’s all and only about context.
Like how a gidp is more effective than a K. Especially if the gidp requires only a pitch or two while the K might require six or seven.
If scouts and GM’s had been employing the information presented daily by these writers, guys like Bob Lemon, Don Sutton, Greg Maddux, and countless others would have been cut very early in their careers, if they had even been signed at all.
No of course I’ve never heard of an intentional walk. I haven’t heard of the fact that all three of the pitchers mentioned have all issued exactly two IBBs in the past two seasons. So we can rule that out pretty easily as an issue that might skew things. I know you’re big on context and all.
And no, I’ve never heard of pitching around batters either. I’ve certainly never heard about “swing and miss stuff” which I referenced in my original comment. I’ve never learned that pitchers with good stuff who pitch around batters get more strikeouts than pitchers with bad stuff who tend to get more walks because bad stuff doesn’t fool batters.
Walking a guy is giving in. You’ve just given him an OPS for that AB of 1.000. Congrats. Only three hitters have an OPS that high this season.
Your last paragraph is just an appeal to authority so I’ll discount that completely.
The more walks you issue the worse your results. Yes there are other factors but will all things being equal, walks are bad.
Bring him home, Jerry. Bring him home.
Eh bullpen isn’t a need and for 18-25 a year we could improve the rotation or lineup a lot more
Only if someone is willing to pay out the buckaroos.
I think Chapman was also highly regarded since he was breaking records with his fastball and a LHP. I think Díaz gets paid but not as much in total $ as Chapman. He could however challenge the AAV for a relief contract.
Don’t care what type of season he’s having … A “record breaking contract” for a reliever could cost a gm their job when his era could be in the 4’s next season. Nobody in baseball is as inconsistent from season to season as a reliever.. Only the dumb teams give out big contracts for relievers. He’s a good closer, but he’s had seasons with the mets where he wasn’t effective at all. 2019 his era was in the 5’s.. last season his era was in the mid 3’s. It’s a bad idea imo.
Are they going to bet against themselves?
I can’t see any org outside the Mets paying any Rp 20 AAV
Big Market teams like Tb SF Bos NYY Lad are not paying 8 figure AAV’s for Rp’s anymore
They have had far greater success using the Rp allotted 40 span spots taking chances on high upside arms (usually ex starters) and just shuffling thru them at bargain barrel prices
@Cap, I agree. The big-market teams have moved toward low-cost, high-spin-rate relievers. They’ll save the $20 million they were paying closers and direct that money elsewhere.
The only long term contract for a closer in recent memory that arguably aged well was LAD’s deal with Jansen that ended last year. They got relatively even results across the life of the deal. That’s the exception. I think the Mets bring Diaz back, but I’d only do that after seeing what kind of offers he gets – no need to bid against themselves and overpay. Four years ago Kimbrel was untouchable, but over the last year every save opportunity is like watching a drunken baby on a tightrope. Odds are there will be regret sooner rather than later.
I fondly recall Mets fans claiming he was trash after his first year in NY.
They were still calling him trash early last year. This is his signature season with the Mets, but I wouldn’t be counting on a repeat.
Not sure about the whole “he’s not consistent” thing. Outside of an anomalous 2019 season, he’s been a pretty good closer every year.
Anomalous and consistent don’t work together lol.
A couple years ago us Mets fans were questioning the trade and Diaz was shaky. Even when he converted saves, they were mail biters. It’s a different feeling now watching Mets games. He’s lights out. He hasn’t consistently pitched to this level, and he also before this year didn’t pitch to his last couple years in Seattle.
Anyways, that trade looks good now. An owner who can eat the cano contract no problem. Kelenic showing nothing so far and Dunn already gone fading into the pitchers oblivion we call Cincinnati.
Is/was Verlander not consistent overall as a player because he had a bad 2014?
I’ve crunched the numbers. The Mets should sign Diaz to a record-breaking contract, but only for the even-numbered years.
5/110 is my guess.
There’s no way Cohen let’s him go and there’s no way he wouldn’t want to stay a Met. The crowd has embraced him, he’s home now. They won’t low ball him and ruin this.
Thats basically what CY young winner Robbie Ray got. Theres no way any team is giving a reliever that much. I think Diaz gets 5 years at 80 milion at most. The bullpen, despite what most people say, is the most important part of a team. Without Diaz this year, the Mets would be atleast 10 games back of the Braves. They need to resign Diaz but if his price tag is too high, there are plenty other reliever they can
pivot too that can get the job done
Only Cohen gets a deal that big done for a reliever. Don’t think other major market front offices have any appetite for a huge reliever contract. Front offices know better at this point ( or should).
I’m sorry, but the title of this article and the content therein are absurd.
Comparing Chapman’s compensation, based on one of the greatest closers of all time, with a couple good years of Edwin Diaz is ridiculous. It either says you’re young and you don’t know about the hoards, and I mean HOARDS of bad pitching contracts from the likes of Jonathan Papelbon, Carlos Marmol, and Heath Bell (to name a very small few), or you have a short term memory and choose not to acknowledge some of these franchise crippling agreements.
Speaking of franchise crippling agreements, to be fair it’s not just closers, guys like Patrick Corbin and Stephen Strasburg are doing their best to bring down the Washington Nationals franchise. Chris Davis and Anthony Rendon would like to rep the position players. Hey guys.
Edwin Diaz should be celebrated for his accomplishments this year and what he’s doing for the Mets. He’ll get paid. But to immediately vault him into record-breaking contract status is irresponsible journalism. It becomes baseless fodder for his agents to throw at likely suitors and is a bloated exaggeration for empty clicks.
The Nationals franchise is doing just fine, can’t wait to see how many billions it sells for this off-season.
It’s not “baseless fodder” to show an upcoming FA’s best comps. I wish there was a way to downvote your post.
I just liked it for you. I know I’m coming out hot on this article but it slays me that teams repeatedly dole out these horrible contracts. And let’s not confuse the sale price of a professional team with its health within the sport. Nationals aren’t going anywhere. Don’t take my word for it – Soto himself said the uncertainty of new ownership and the teams future were reasons for rejecting the Nats offer.
Soto turned down the offer because it was a low ball offer. He’s going to get a great deal more than that.
The best starters are going to be quickly going for 40M$ per, it’s not far fetched to see the 20M$ per ceiling for relievers broken very soon.
I’m calling Diaz blowing his next save against the Phillies. After Keith’s hilarious comment on the Phillies (which was true), it only makes sense for the Mets to start their freefall against the Phils.
You should maybe think about paying more attention to those Phillies (only 3 games back, and that’s without Harper) and stop obsessing with the Mets on every post (who are 7 games up and waxed the Braves last weekend).
Braves will finish in 3rd. Mark it down.
Reds will sign ONE free agent this year. Edwin Diaz.
He can, but he won’t
I hope Diaz and all the top FA sign record breaking deals in the AL. I’m a huge fan of albatross contracts. It helps my Astros win.
The Mets will have many decisions to make. However, those are off-season issues. Some of it will depend on how the season ends. Does Diaz blow up in the postseason or does he continue his dominance. We’ll see. I don’t think Steve Cohen is sweating it. He’ll get who he wants or needs or he’ll find someone else. The way this team is being run compared to the Wilpons is night and day.