A lot has changed since the last edition of MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings. Joe Musgrove, formerly the No. 5 entrant on the list, has since signed a five-year extension with his hometown Padres, keeping him from reaching the market. Willson Contreras, the No. 9 entrant on that edition of the list, was somewhat stunningly not traded at the deadline, meaning he’ll be subject to draft-pick compensation. Jacob deGrom had yet to pitch at that point in the season but has now made a dominant pair of outings in his 2022 debut. More broadly, several players on the list or on the “honorable mention” portion of the list have altered their stock with strong play or faded.
Here’s a look at where things stand, with a reminder that this list is based on what the MLBTR team believes to be each player’s earning power in free agency — not necessarily a ranking of the “best” free agents or who’ll hold up the best over the life of a major free-agent contract.
1. Aaron Judge, OF, Yankees (Last ranked: 1): While plenty has changed since the May 25 version of these rankings, it’s business as usual for Judge, who boldly turned down a seven-year, $213.5MM extension offer back in Spring Training and now looks prescient for doing so. Judge was hitting .314/.386/.692 at the time of our last rankings and has followed that with a remarkably consistent .292/.390/.654 line in 64 games since. Judge is on pace to top Roger Maris’ 61 home runs from the 1961 season, leading the Majors not only in long balls (44) but also runs scored (93), RBIs (98), slugging percentage (.677), OPS (1.068) and wRC+ (196). He’s leading the AL with 122 hits and has even stolen a career-high 11 bases (without being caught).
Judge has been the best hitter on the planet since Opening Day, and as things currently stand, the only person who could conceivably stand in his way of winning his first AL MVP trophy would be Angels sensation Shohei Ohtani. However, great as Ohtani has been again in 2022, his offense isn’t quite what it was last year (and isn’t anywhere close to Judge’s league-leading dominance). From a pure WAR perspective, Judge has been so good this year that his value with the bat has eclipsed Ohtani’s combined value at the plate and on the mound.
Regardless, Judge is now poised to reach free agency on the heels of the finest season of his already brilliant big league career. He’ll play the 2023 season at age 31, which is about the only strike against him in free agency. Judge will receive and reject a qualifying offer from the Yankees, and even though he’d be 38 by the end of an eight-year deal, that seems plenty plausible. He could very well command the largest annual salary any position player has ever received, too, and a $300MM overall contract doesn’t seem out of the question. This is what it looks like to bet on yourself and win — in resounding, overwhelming fashion, no less.
2. Trea Turner, SS, Dodgers (LR: 3): There’s not much on the baseball field that Turner doesn’t do well. The 29-year-old is the sport’s fastest player, by measure of Statcast’s Average Sprint Speed, and he’s hitting .305/.345/.499 as of this writing. The 28 home runs he popped in 2021 might very well go down as a career-high, but Turner should finish this year around 25 dingers and has twice in the past hit 19 long balls (including in a 2019 season where he played in just 122 games).
That injury shortened ’19 campaign was the only one in the past half decade in which Turner spent significant time on the shelf. Over the past five years, he’s a .303/.358/.493 hitter who’s made a pair of All-Star teams, won a batting title and taken home a World Series ring.
By the end of a long-term deal, Turner will probably move off shortstop, but he’s a solid option there for now who’d be plenty capable of sliding over to second base at some point. Over the past three seasons, he’s been 43% better than league-average with the bat, by measure of wRC+, and this will be his fourth season of at least four wins above replacement in the past five years — with the 60-game 2020 season, when he boasted 2.8 fWAR and bWAR alike, being the lone exception.
If Turner had been born a day later, next year would technically be considered his age-29 season, but he’ll be 30 on June 30, and the July 1 cutoff is (for whatever reason) generally seen as the arbitrary turning point for a player’s age in a given year. A seven-year deal for Turner would run through age-37, and an eight-year deal through age-38. He’ll have to contend with a qualifying offer and another deep class of shortstops, but Turner is one of baseball’s most well-rounded players and figures to be compensated in line with the game’s 10 to 20 best position players.
3. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Cardinals (LR: 6): It’s difficult to directly compare Arenado’s 2022 season and the 2019 season that propelled Anthony Rendon to a seven-year, $245MM contract, given that Rendon’s Herculean ’19 effort came during the juiced-ball season. Offense is down league-wide now, yet Arenado stacks up favorably in terms of batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Metrics like wRC+ and OPS+, which weight for both home park and league environment, feel that Arenado’s 2022 production at the plate has actually been slightly better.
Defensively, Arenado is nearly peerless at his position. Since making his MLB debut in 2013, Arenado ranks second among all players, regardless of position, with 151 Defensive Runs Saved, trailing only Andrelton Simmons. He’s third to Francisco Lindor and Nick Ahmed in Statcast’s Outs Above Average, which tracks defensive data dating back to 2016. Arenado’s numbers aren’t inflated by early-career marks, either. He remains elite this season, ranking third in all of MLB in DRS and second in OAA. Defensive metrics and the eye test agree, as Arenado has been a human highlight reel at the hot corner for his decade-long career.
The age gap between 2022 Arenado (31) and 2019 Rendon (29) can’t be ignored. However, that should be more reflected in the length of a theoretical Arenado contract than in the annual value. It’s also, of course, worth noting that Arenado is technically under contract through 2027. He’s guaranteed $144MM in that time but has the right to opt out of the contract after the current season. Arenado forwent an opt-out clause after the 2021 season, but his 2022 campaign is the best of his career.
Even if he’s capped at a five-year deal in free agency, he should be able to trounce the current $28.8MM annual value remaining on his deal by as much as $5-7MM — and a six-year deal doesn’t seem impossible to imagine coming off such a brilliant effort. (Freddie Freeman scored a six-year deal beginning with his age-32 season, so there’s recent precedent.) Perhaps Arenado and the Cardinals will work out a compromise, and it’s always possible he decides he’s happy in St. Louis and just passes on the opt-out entirely. If he does want to test the market again, however, there could be another $20-60MM in earning power for him on top of his current deal.
4. Carlos Correa, SS, Twins (LR: 2): The 2022 season might not have gone quite as well as either Correa or the Twins hoped, but he’s still enjoying a sound all-around year, hitting .265/.343/.433 (22% better than league average, by measure of wRC+). He got out to a slow start in April and has slumped following the All-Star break, but for a three-month stretch from late April to late July, Correa hit .308/.375/.509. Provided the current slump doesn’t last too long, Correa stands a decent chance to be around 30% better than average at the plate for the second straight season and third time in four years.
Last year’s all-world defensive ratings have taken a dip thus far in 2022 — surprising for a player who has generally been a consistent source of elite glovework. He’s made five throwing errors this season, tied for his most since 2016, but Correa has been plenty sure-handed, booting just two balls hit to him. He’s spent the year throwing to Miguel Sano and a pair of makeshift first baseman who’ve converted from other positions (Luis Arraez, Jose Miranda), so perhaps some of the throwing miscues can be forgiven by a team with a better defensive outlook at first base.
If those first couple paragraphs feel like they’re filled with caveats — well, they are. The simple fact is that Correa hasn’t had as strong a season as he did in 2021 and probably shouldn’t be expected to command the type of contract many (MLBTR included) thought to be possible last offseason. That said, Correa still hasn’t even turned 28 — the age at which he’ll play nearly all of the 2023 season. His youth alone gives him the chance to command the longest contract of any free agent this winter; even a 10-year deal would run through age-37.
That type of contract may not be on the table without a huge finish, but Correa is still a plus defender and well above-average hitter with age on his side. It’s perhaps narrowly more plausible that he could opt into a second year with the Twins, take another $35.1MM salary and hope to hit free agency on the heels of a stronger platform in 2023, but his current earning power is still among the best in this year’s free-agent class.
5. Xander Bogaerts, SS, Red Sox (LR: 4): When the last version of our list was published, Bogaerts had homered just four times in 174 plate appearances while posting a below-average .135 ISO (slugging minus batting average). It was easy enough to overlook as little more than small-sample noise at the time, but Bogaerts has hit just five home runs in 267 plate appearances since that time and now has nine long balls and a tepid .141 ISO in 441 trips to the plate. That’s the worst power output we’ve seen from Bogaerts since 2017 by an overwhelming margin. From 2018-21, he belted 90 homers in 2106 plate appearances while turning in a stout .224 ISO.
Bogaerts is still hitting .311/.383/.452 on the season, but he’s also sporting a career-high .382 average on balls in play that he’s not going to sustain — particularly not when his average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate are at their lowest or near-lowest levels since 2017.
There’s still no doubt that Bogaerts will opt out of the remaining three years and $60MM on his contract, but he’d be higher on this list if not for his power stroke going MIA. Couple that with ongoing questions about his defense — some teams are surely going to see Bogaerts as a player who needs to move off shortstop, perhaps as soon as 2023 — and the current free-agent outlook is a bit murkier than expected.
Nevertheless, Bogaerts has a long track record of excellent offense and well above-average power output. With a strong finish to the season, particularly in the power department, he should have no problem commanding a notable nine-figure deal — and something in excess of $200MM can’t be ruled out.
6. Jacob deGrom, RHP, Mets (LR: 7): The No. 6 ranking here for deGrom factors in something of a best-case scenario, but this list is based on earning power, after all. If deGrom gets hurt again or struggles down the stretch, it’s possible he’ll drop off the list entirely. The latter of those two scenarios seems unlikely, though, as deGrom hasn’t “struggled” since 2017. He’s been dominant through his first two starts of the 2022 season, averaging 99.2 mph with his fastball and holding opponents to three runs on four hits and a walk with 18 punchouts through 10 2/3 innings.
Dating back to 2018, deGrom has a comical 1.95 ERA in 591 2/3 innings with a 34.9% strikeout rate against a 5.3% walk rate. When healthy, deGrom is simply unmatched in terms of starting pitching dominance over that period. He ranks second among all Major League pitchers with 24 wins above replacement dating back to 2018, per FanGraphs, despite the fact that he’s made only 93 starts in that time. Max Scherzer tops the list but has started 24 more games and logged 143 2/3 more innings — about an extra 75% of a season’s worth of work.
If deGrom finishes the season with no red flags, the bidding should be furious. He’ll turn 35 next June, making him nearly three full years younger than Scherzer was when he secured his record-setting three-year, $130MM deal from the Mets. DeGrom could justifiably look to top that AAV on a multi-year deal, and he’s too good for the bidding to stop at two years. The biggest question surrounding deGrom is just how many years someone will be willing to guarantee. A three-year pact in excess of Scherzer’s seems doable, and a fourth year ought to be on the table as well.
7. Dansby Swanson, SS, Braves (LR: Not Ranked): Long a plus defender at shortstop, Swanson is having another strong year with the glove and a career year with the bat. He’s followed up a career-high 27 home runs in 2021 with a .292/.348/.461 showing through 463 trips to the plate. He’s been the beneficiary of a .375 average on balls in play that he surely won’t sustain over a larger sample, but Swanson is also making hard contact at a career-best 44.7% clip and elevating the ball more than he has in years past.
A greater walk rate than his current 7.3% clip or lower strikeout rate than his 26.3% mark would raise Swanson’s floor, but his glove alone will make him an above-average regular and he’s well on his way to his second straight 25-homer season. Add in that Swanson will play all of next season at 29 years old, and a nine-figure deal seems likely. Both Trevor Story and Javier Baez landed six-year, $140MM pacts last winter at the same age. Swanson will have to contend with a qualifying offer and with some more decorated shortstop options ahead of him on the market, but he’ll be in high demand all the same.
8. Carlos Rodon, LHP, Giants (LR: 8): Rodon was the best pitcher in baseball through late July in 2021, but he was capped to five innings per appearance (at most) down the stretch as he battled shoulder fatigue and diminished velocity. For a pitcher with Rodon’s injury history, that limited interest in him to the point that he took a two-year, $44MM deal with a chance to opt out following the 2022 season — provided he reached 110 frames.
Rodon has not only reached 110 innings — he’s shot past it with career-best velocity (95.8 mph average fastball) and another sub-3.00 ERA (2.95 through 128 1/3 frames thus far). Rodon is averaging just shy of six innings per outing and boasts a 31.2% strikeout rate against a 7.6% walk rate. He’s reached double-digit strikeouts in six of his 22 starts and held opponents to three or fewer runs in 18 of 22 tries.
Rodon’s fastball in his past eight starts is down about one mile per hour over his average from his first 14 starts, but it’s still been a healthy 95.1 mph in that stretch. That said, he threw a complete game on July 9, worked seven shutout innings on July 31, and averaged a resurgent 96 mph with his heater in his most recent outing. At least so far, Rodon doesn’t appear to be fading at all. If he can avoid the type of late swoon he experienced in 2021, he ought to find four- and five-year offers at superior annual values to this contract’s $22MM AAV. He’ll receive a qualifying offer and surely reject it, which isn’t ideal, but he has the best combination of age (30 all of next season) and 2022 performance of any starter on this year’s market.
9. Justin Verlander, RHP, Astros (LR: Not Ranked): Simply returning to make a full season’s worth of starts would’ve been a feat for a 39-year-old who had pitched just six innings since the end of the 2019 season due to Tommy John surgery. Verlander, of course, is no ordinary 39-year-old, and he’s not only returned but positioned himself as a front-runner for the AL Cy Young Award.
It’s a jaw-dropping feat, even for one of this generation’s best. Verlander has a 1.73 ERA with a 25.5% strikeout rate against a minuscule 4.6% walk rate. He’s averaging nearly 6 2/3 innings per start, sitting 95.1 mph with his heater — his second-best mark since way back in 2011 — and has thrown a quality start in 16 of his 20 appearances this year. Verlander hasn’t yielded more than one earned run in a start since June 18 and has held opponents to one or zero earned runs in a stunning 15 of 20 starts.
He’ll turn 40 in February, but Verlander has a legitimate case to break Max Scherzer’s $43.33MM AAV, particularly if he’s looking at a two-year deal. He’s said he wants to pitch into his mid-40s and looks as good as ever, though, so we shouldn’t discount the possibility that a team shrugs and goes to three guaranteed years for this generation’s most prolific workhorse. Verlander unlocked a $25MM player option when he reached 130 innings pitched, but he should be able to crush that in free agency even if he prefers to work out an extension with Houston.
10. Edwin Diaz, RHP, Mets (LR: Not Ranked): It’s been six years since Mark Melancon (four years, $62MM), Kenley Jansen (five years, $80MM) and Aroldis Chapman (five years, $85MM) each set new records for relief contracts in the same offseason. Diaz, the most dominant reliever in baseball this season, will have a chance to topple that Chapman record when he heads into free agency in advance of his age-29 season.
After a nightmarish first season in Queens, Diaz has righted the ship and become a spectacle in the best kind of way. He’s averaging 99.1 mph on his heater this season, has punched out 52.9% of his opponents and has an entrance more befitting of a professional wrestler than a Major League closer.
Diaz’s Baseball Savant profile looks like a video game cheat code. He’s leading the Majors in expected ERA, expected wOBA, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, strikeout rate, whiff rate and ranks in the 99th percentile in average exit velocity, opponents’ chase rate, opponents’ barrel rate and fastball velocity. Diaz last allowed an earned run on June 18, and in 18 innings since that time he’s posted a 38-to-1 K/BB ratio while yielding just seven hits.
The 2022 version of Edwin Diaz might be the best reliever we’ve seen since Mariano Rivera. He’ll be hit with a qualifying offer, but it’s doubtful the teams pursuing him are going to even care about that. It’d be a surprise if Diaz doesn’t set a new contract record for relief pitchers this winter, and he could be baseball’s first nine-figure reliever.
Honorable Mentions: Brandon Nimmo, Willson Contreras, Jose Abreu, Josh Bell, Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Benintendi
It will be a LONG WINTER waiting on the SS market to play out.
I’m sensing deja vu all over again with Dansby & agent Casey Close ending up in Dodger Blue trying to get more value out of replacing an outgoing Trea Turner.
Swanson is the iffiest SS in that big money list. One great offensive year does not a 7-8 year, all in commitment make.
Hello Marcus Semien
Corey Seager got $325M over ten years and he did what exactly? You only have to be good these days to get the big contracts you don’t have to be great.
Seager was an all star and the NLCS MVP. What’s your question again?
Arenado is a So Cal guy and Justin Turner is old. I could see a Dodger matchup.
AFTER the Dodgers lock up Trea Turner!!
AFTER the Dodgers sign T. Turner to a long term contract!
It is a shame that Arenado did say he will not opt out of his contract. He also say that he loves St Louis.
Trea Turner will be 30 the 1st year of his next contract and is no superstar- he’s a very good player. His decline will not be graceful and all there is going forward for his career is the decline phase.
@Mystery Team Ludicrous. Seager was a career 0.870 OPS and 131 OPS+ hitter with the Dodgers. Swanson is a career 0.740 OPS and 95 OPS+ hitter.
I didn’t think a Trea Turner signing by the Dodgers was possible, but with Bauer’s contract most likely voided, and Muncy and Bellinger in decline and potential non-tender candidates, it’s more likely today that he could sign with the Dodgers. Again, it depends how long and how much the contract is for and obviously no guarantees that Trea Turner wants to stay if he has other options. Lux has played well and could be a replacement still but obviously a big drop-off in production.
Because, you know, dude can’t say healthy.
If he isn’t then he should be a superstar. Juan Soto for instance is an incredible hitter but if I want to win a game today I’d much rather have the multiple ways Turner can help me win. I do agree that he may not age well though with his speed reliance and hard style of play.
Where did he say that? And even if he did it wouldn’t have been binding. There is no reason for Nolan or any other player with an opt-out to commit one way or the other on the opt-out until the opt-out date actually comes.
I don’t think he’s said it this year (yet), but Arenado did publicly state that he was declining last year’s opt-out months in advance.
He had a down year in 2021. And even then him saying he wasn’t opting out months in advance was not legally or ethically binding.
He is holding up much better than Correa and Xander, Dansby is having his best year but it is an outlier offensively. Turner will be over .300 again, 25-30 steals again, 20-25 hr, 40 doubles, slug over .500, knock in over a 100 rbi. And none of the other shortstops will be close. And none of this 3 will ever be faster than him, maybe a young kid but no SS within 2 years of his age will be. Not the defender Dansby is or where Correa used to be. But he plays everyday every year with the exception of broken bones.
St Louis is called Baseball Heaven for a reason! The Fanbase!
My thoughts as well ! Arenado is the second best hitter on the team! I hope they sign him and give him and Goldy both a bonus!
I have to disagree with you on Dansby. He might not hit like Seager or Turner, but his glove more than makes up for the difference. A team looking for a solid #2 bat for the next half decade+ would find the perfect match with him. Defense wins games and SS is the most important position in a team’s defense. It’s why Ozzie Smith is in the HoF. If the Phillies had him to start the season they would’ve won more close games and Joe would still have a job. He would be the perfect target for the Angels, as well. Swanson, Trout and Ohtani hitting 2-4 would go a long way towards fixing their run production issues. He will command $100m less than the top tier SS and half the years. Turner and Swanson are probably the only 2 free agent SS, barring injuries, that will not have to move off SS before the end of their next contract.
Iffiest? Not more than Carlos Mr.WAR Lover Correa.
Muncy just re-signed for $13.5M guaranteed for next season. I know this comment was posted before the Muncy deal was hammered out but there is no way LA will be able to dip below the CBT threshold next year so they might as well throw big bucks at Trea Turner and keep the machine running. It’s kind of crazy to think that between Betts, Freeman and Trea Turner (if they re-sign him), the Dodgers will be paying (3) offensive players a combined $90M+. It just goes to show how unbalanced MLB payrolls can be compared to all of the other professional sports. There are 2 MLB teams with total team payrolls under $50M total, while the Dodgers are currently paying Betts & Freeman nearly $10M more than that alone.
I do wish the most recent CBA had set a payroll floor for all teams but total money spent does not equate to winning baseball. Just look at the Red Sox this year. Meanwhile, the team with the lowest overall payroll pre trade deadline (Baltimore @ $43M) and the team with the 4th lowest payroll (Cleveland @ $66M) are playoff contenders this year but it still seems a little unfair that some teams can have a payroll nearly 5X the size of the lowest payroll teams in the league.
Dorothy — Completely agree. If it’s allowed to continue MLB will no longer be competitive for most teams. What will happen is that, first, many teams will change ownership with the richest (like Steve Cohen) thinking they can spend their way to a championship. And some will.
But over a decade or so, it will become increasingly obvious that certain cities are uniformly left out of being able to compete. Fans will be disgusted at prices (If they already aren’t) and at the lack of their team’s chances. Fans exit, MLB REDUCES the amount of franchises, and baseball will no longer be The National Pastime.
Despite what the MLBPA and owners are afraid of, a floor and ceiling needs to be introduced.
Arenado still decided on last year’s opt-out (and then followed through on it) months in advance, which still contradicts what you said about such a thing never happening.
This is nothing new. The bigger markets having a significant financial advantage has existed ever since free agency started, and the game hasn’t collapsed in the nearly half century since then, while a number of small to mid market teams have occasionally won the World Series. There have even been improvements to the system over the years with stuff like the luxury tax, revenue sharing, and the competitive balance picks.
A salary floor would be nice, but MLB can get by without a hard salary cap as long as the seniority-based salary system (so that small markets can build through drafting and developing their own cheap young stars) remains intact.
No, but it’s getting worse. The divide getting greater every season.
No he didn’t. Nothing was finalized until his opt-out date. He could have just as easily opted out anyway even after saying that and the Cardinals would have had no recourse.
It wasn’t finalized, but he did still make the decision itself months in advance and then followed through on it. Thus, he still contradicted your statement.
Besides, if you want to be that technical about it, it’s impossible to finalize it in advance, so there was no point in making your statement in the first place.
No, the divide is overall smaller than it used to be for most teams on a percentage basis. It’s just that the teams stuck in the Snowbird State and the A’s in their terrible stadium that’s taking forever to replace are the worst exceptions with extenuating circumstances that are dragging down the averages.
He contradicted nothing. The point is he didn’t have to follow through on it. He still could have opted out and the Cardinals would have had no recourse against him for going back on what he said.
And sure they can finalize it in advance. Players have agreed to waive their opt-out clauses before the actual opt-out date plenty of times before. Justin Upton, Aroldis Chapman, etc.
You think the guy who has shown some power for three straight years and an elite glove the last five years is the ‘iffiest’ of the SSs?
I wouldn’t bet against him landing a 7 or 8-year deal. His floor is a lot higher that you seem to realize.
I yawn at you
From this SS group, go with Turner over the others on a long term contract? They’re all good and deserving of a deal but to me Turner is the one who has a physical body type that can stay healthy over the life of a 7/8 year deal AND with no to little drop off in productivity.
“AND with no to little drop off in productivity”
He’s about to be 30 the 1st year of the next contract and he isn’t great to begin with. And pretty much 100% chance there will be a major decline with his next contract. If he was going to be 28 or younger the 1st year of the contract, then he would be a good signing. Not 30.
@theopener, thanks for the get back. As a general rule, I agree with you. There are exceptions to rules though. IMHO, Trea is an exception here. Agree to disagree on this one?
Agree that Turner seems to be the type who could be an exception, however wouldn’t sign him for that possibility.
@TheOpener; fair enough. Cheers!
Judge “has been the best player on the planet since opening day” because it’s his contract lol. I’m a lifelong Yankee fan too. His next contract has Albert Pujols written all over it. I’d actually prefer the Yankees don’t sign him. They already have Stanton. Judge is miraculously not getting injured because it’s his last season to prove what he’s worth. Guy is made of glass and also fake as they come. I see him signing with the Yankees but I don’t think financially it makes sense
While Judge’s contract is likely to go south over the last couple of years, his health isn’t so much of a concern anymore. Not only has he been healthy this year, he played in 148 games last year. The new strength and conditioning coaches have worked wonders. I just wish Stanton could get in on it as well.
Judge was asking for 10/360. Every player begins to decline from 31 on. Defense goes faster. Judge has already shown that he is injury prone having missed more than 25% of Yankees games due to injury. He will not be the exception. By the time he hits 35 his numbers will be league average or below. Is that the kind of performance you would want the Yankees to spend $36+ million on until he is 40?
@outinleftfield, I didn’t read anything that said 10/360 was Judge’s expectations. I did read some media speculation that he wanted an eight-year extension added to his last arbitration year, taking the total nine-year commitment to around $300 million. That was then. Who knows what he’ll ask and get at his current pace!
You can start by going back and reading the articles about it on this site. They have links to several tweets and articles that mentioned that 10/360 price tag. Lots and Lots and Lots of Yankee fans on here arguing about. Maybe he will ONLY ask for 9/324 this coming offseason because a season has passed. He is going to very rich. Only a handful of teams can afford to do something like that just to get 3-4 good years while eating 5-6 average to bad years.
It doesn’t matter, 36M per in a decade is going to look like 23M per now.
You mean a top 30 AAV contract? Yeah, it will. For a guy that will be producing league average or worse offense and defense. League average contracts will probably be at $6 million in 10 years, so that $36 million is still going to look really bad.
That’s the type of justification you can only use when it’s not your money
Not every player declines that quickly, even when discounting the PED guys. Goldschmidt is having the best year of his career at age 34, Scherzer is 38 and is only now just starting to decline, etc.
I’d agree with you on the health aspect. I think Judge is underrated as a defender too. The only thing I’ve ever been concerned about, is his strike out rate. Up until last year, he was averaging roughly 32% but still managing a decent batting average and good homerun percentage. Probably has to do with his raw strength, Last year and this year, it’s at 25% but it’s growing slowly as the year goes on. His first two months in 2022, he was hovering around 18% strike out rate the last two months are back to being around 30% again. I am curious to what happens when his bat speed slows. Judge hits homeruns today that are pop outs to most players. As a Sox fan, I enjoy watching him hit bombs and chasing yearly homerun records.
Not 32%. 27%.
Disagree on almost every level. Judge has been a top 5 player in the game on both sides of the ball since his rookie season so it’s not just his contract year. He already hit 50+ HR’s his rookie season so this isn’t a fluke. Yes he had some injury plagued seasons that could be perceived as fluky or being injury prone but he put that injury prone reputation to sleep by playing 148 games last year and following it up this year with another healthy season.
Stanton? Dude isn’t in the same class as Judge in any area of the game and talk about being made of glass lol.
It makes financial sense too since Judge is a cash cow when it comes to marketing their brand. Whose the face of the team next year if Judge leaves? Cole? Guy sounds like a condescending Sesame Street character. Stanton? Guy is afraid of the media and always hurt. Cashman and Zieg have messed this up big time from the start and it’s on nobody else besides them.
Why did Jeter gift Stanton to the Yankees! We wanted to pay that contract for him to constantly be on the IL.
Evil Empire!
& the marlins decided they’d save all that bad money and put it towards Avi Garcia and Jorge Soler!
A boon!
Face of the franchise would be Cole, the brats coming up in the minors – Peraza and that other bum, Vlope, plus Torreyes and maybe even Benetindi. Just relax buddy, Judge will be back in pinstripes next year, yankee pinstripes too!
Are you okay? Your stuttering and wetting your diaper all over your comment. I love guys who will never even sniff amateur ball calling minor and major league players bums. What was your WAR oh great one?
Aww buddy are you okay? Did i hurt your feelings
Complaining about Judge being “made of glass” then justifying letting him go because “they already have Stanton” is about the worst take I’ve seen on here in years. Stanton has been on the IL 8 times since joining the Yankees.
Stanton has been in the league for way longer than Judge. It’s Judge’s fault he’ll nearly be 31 when the season starts and his first trip to free agency. Judge came until the league very late. Stanton has already proven he’s HOF worthy
The last time Stanton could be argued to be better or even in the same class as Judge was 2016. Every year since Judge has been the clear cut better player and it’s not even an argument. That’s 5+ years running. Ancient history at this point.
@MarlinsFanBase pulls up chair with beverage and popcorn to watch Yankees fans argue about Stanton and Judge. Contemplates about, after Judge re-signs with Yankees for half a billion, whether or not he should inform MLB to upgrade their PED testing to find out which ones Judge and Stanton are clearly on.
In other news….Why oh why did Jeter gift Stanton and that contract to the Yankees!
Stanton is far from HOF. So very very far.
Stanton can make the HoF if he stays healthy enough to play enough to post numbers for a few more…uh…never mind, I see your point.
About 129 HRs away, and with a guaranteed five years still on his contract to get him there. There’s never been a non-PED-associated player who hit 500 HRs not be be elected. He’s closer than you think.
Your ethics suck.
Rob, while the Crime Dog didn’t technically get 500, he was within 7 and hasn’t gotten in. McGriff does deserve to be in. I’m just pointing out that he isn’t.
109 more than Harold Baines.
He’ll be 33 going into next season. He’ll be lucky to hit 100 more hrs
For a guy done as a star at 27 or 28, with 45 WAR currently in his pocket, he’s close to a lock for the Hall of the Very Good. Missing 50 WAR is more likely than getting into the HOF.
@RobM Over the last 5 years Stanton has hit only 104 HR. Give him 10 more for this season and let him repeat these much younger seasons, and 5 years from now he’ll a horrible DH stuck on 485 HRs.
He could get to 500 HR as a DH and not get to 55 WAR. Stanton is never going to the Hall, even with 500 HR.
His contract situation and his injury status have nothing to do with each other.
His contract does not have Albert Pujols written all over it, it has Giancarlo Stanton written all over it. To me really, it has whatever and whenever Mike Trout’s last contract written all over it. Grow up, bratty Yankees fan.
Have you watched the MV2 (Goldschmidt & Arenaldo), the Cardinals have playing. Plus—- both are Gold Glove winners!! Not as many homer’s, but ahead of Judge in every other category.
All I can hope for is the Giants being in on all of this!
If by “this” you mean realistic targets like Kevin Plawecki and Chasen Shreve, then by all means get your hopes up
Nah, not sure why you think the Giants won’t get after these big names along with any other high market team you must be sorely mistaken. Now weather or not they land one is a different story but they have barely anything on the books and certainly can land two maybe three of those names.
The Giants will “balk” at your hope
Hope never “balks” ha. But keep on keeping on. But seriously, what makes you think the Giants money is different then the yanks or Doyers? It’s sounds more like you HOPE they don’t get involved.
Sounds like you are being racist a bit with that Doyers jab.
Do tell? So you’re saying I missed the real message of the “Los Dodgers” sweatshirt they gave away this year?
Well for one you are not the person i was responding to. Secondly it’s still spelled dodgers not doyers typing it the way Hispanics pronounce the team name could seem a bit egregious to me.
The Latino community in LA has totally appropriated and embraced the “Los Doyers” name, and the team copyrighted it:
remezcla.com/features/sports/los-angeles-doyers-ch…
Correction: the team trademarked “Los Doyers” and they sell “Los Doyers” merchandise.
I don’t think you know me one bit to even come close to calling me a racist bud. Knock that crap off
It literally says racist insult on the front page
Cry baby p body
Did you read the article, authored by a Latino, Gustavo Arellano? Since you’re going to quote a fragment of the headline, let’s quote the entire thing:
‘How LA’s “Los Doyers” Fans Turned a Racist Insult into a Point of Pride’
Did you even look at the huge photo of Latino Dodgers fans in T-shirts spelling out “Los Doyers” at the World Series?
I yawn at you buddy, get a grip
Do the great songwriter Paul Simon the courtesy of changing your screen ID. He doesn’t deserve to be associated even remotely with the likes of you.
And now you’re mad
And now you’re a troll, as before. And, no, I’m not angry at all. Your efforts failed, I guess.
Really bro? In no way shape or form should someone on this site start accusing someone they don’t have a clue about, of being a racist. That’s classless. Are you assuming I’m white?
I didnt assume a race for you big fella.
Please don’t feed the trolls,
Right, BlueSkies. Done with this one.
You just keep typing tough guy in a basement. You’re what’s wrong with the world today. Must be hard finding friends for you huh? I’ve said my piece with you. Get on.
Oh boy…. you triggered the sensitive flower. Woke much? The team trademarked the term! So does that make the Dodgers Org all racists? Lol its pathetic!
Little boys!
Oh man if Arenado opts out, THEN what do we think of that trade? Obviously if the Cards win a title this year, it’s all good. But what if they go out in the first round and he then opts out? They do get a comp pick but not a very high one. Do they try and re-sign him? All of the Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, and, to a lesser extent, the Yankees, could use an upgrade at 3B. I don’t think there are any other significant ones on the market next year either. All that is very, very ominous for Cards fans.
Don’t forget them Giants
Oh yeah. He’s always hit well there.
Arenado probably opt out but only to sign a new contract with the Cardinals.
The fact that he played well enough to opt out means that the trade was worth it for the Cardinals
Well, this year sure. He was just OK last year. That pins an awful lot on how they do in this year’s playoffs.
I know it’s not set in stone, but I believe that Arenado recently said that he doesn’t plan to opt out.
Arenado already said he isn’t opting out of his deal. He is the 2nd highest paid 3B at age 31, and he has found a team that always makes the playoffs. Why would he opt out?
He did say that before the 2021-22 offseason:
mlbtraderumors.com/2021/09/nolan-arenado-wont-exer…
He might still feel that way after a much better MVP-caliber season, but I wouldn’t treat it as a guarantee.
That was in September of last year, he stated he wasn’t opting out before the 2022 season. He hasn’t said anything about his intentions for after this season.
redbirdrants.com/2022/07/17/st-louis-cardinals-nol…
Reported by USA today, he isn’t opting out this year.
Eh, he said he wanted to be a Rockie for life too. Nolan is his own man and generally unreliable. He has also said, repeatedly, when he was younger that his dream was to play in NYC or L.A. I think the Cards are gonna have to fork over even more dough, and they have two superb 3B prospects in Gorman and Walker. I say they spend their money elsewhere (like the pitching staff).
Spot on seam.
Words are wind and he addresses the opt out at beginning of season to keep media from pestering him about it. Odds are he’s gone.
So what do cards do ? Same thing they always do as one of the premier franchises in baseball- not overpay, adapt, and keep rolling. Next 3-4 years, walker will surpass arenado anyway.
I agree. It feels like a Cardinals thing to do to declare victory and let someone else pay for his declining years, It’s interesting to look at the trade in retrospect.
StL paid Arenado $70M for 2021-22. Of that amount, CO paid $20M of that, bringing it down to $50M. Some $26M of that is deep deferrals, bringing the cost down even more. Plus, they pick up a QO.
Nicely played!
They actually paid Arenado about the league minimum last year after Colorado’s payment and deferrals down the road. They will only pay him the full amount a few years on the contract. Then he is on the Bonilla plan.
How Arenado’s Contract breaks down after Colorado’s payments and deferrals.agreed to by Arenado and the Cardinals
2021 – STL – $570,000
COL – $14,429,500
2022 – STL – $25,829,500
COL – $5,570,500
2023 – STL – $31,400,000
2024 – STL – $26,400,000
COL – $5,000,000
2025 – STL – $23,400,000
COL – $5,000,000
2026 – STL – $18,400,000
COL – $5,000,000
2027 – STL – $17,400,000
2028 – 2031 – STL – $2,400,000
2032 – 2041 – STL – $3,000,000
Well, they could start Donovan or Gorman at 3B and spend some of the money they saved to upgrade RF instead. It would certainly be a blow, but they would have some decent alternative options.
deGrom in a SD cap… so you’re saying there’s a chance!
Definitely a chance.
He winters near Pierre for the native blackberry jam and welcoming atmosphere.
That pretty much seals the deal then
Ha! Who knew so many Pierrierreians were Padre fans?! Cool!
Why have the Dodgers not signed Trea Turner to a long-term deal? I think he is a generation all-around player, T. Turner can run, hit for average, and have power. He is so much better than Seager ever was and has a great arm and range..
He probably wants to test the market and there was no discount to be had for extending him early because the Dodgers have only had him for a year.. They’ll be in on him until the end and I’d certainly put my money on the Dodgers keeping him.
Somebody will probably come along & offer him stupid money, plus media rumors say he wants to be back on the east coast.
Bingo. And I also think this slows down the market.
Turner will want to shop and the Dodgers will stay in touch to make the last best offer.
Meanwhile, the agents for every other free agent will want to use the Dodgers as boogeymen saying they are in on their clients as well.
Thankfully Turner is a CAA guy not a Boras guy so this could wrap up fairly quickly.
Twins will sign him to replace Correa!
Because Turner has to actually “agree” to any extension.
I heard that Trea also prefering East Coast teams than West Coast teams in signing FA deals, is that true?
While Turner will obviously be in demand, market forces rule. Something that is never discussed in the articles here.
Below I noted below about Correa. The Twins got him because no one else in MLB was going to give him an outrageous contract such as Tatis and Lindor got. They looked elsewhere.
Many MLB teams have elected to get multiple SS candidates in their farm system for years. The theory being that they could always move one off SS and to 2B, 3B or the OF. For example, Cleveland has Amad Rosario and Andres Gimenez that play SS. Tyler Freeman was just called up, he plays SS. Brayan Rocchio and Gabriel Arias are close to being major league ready. If Correa opts out the Twins simply move Royce Lewis to the position in 2023. Sure he’s no Correa, but he plays for 1/50th of what Correa is due – that money can be spent on multiple players to improve the team.
The point is that teams can find acceptable and possibly quality SS’s today without having to give out long term $35m a year contracts. And they can use that money to shore up multiples areas on their teams. Which is why franchises such as the Red Sox are waking up to the fact that top heavy payrolls may give them stars that fans love, but the 26 man roster is what’s in play; compromising the down roster for a star or four doesn’t often work for long….i.e. “It’s A Young Mans Game”.
Sure he’s no Correa, but he plays for 1/50th of what Correa is due – that money can be spent on multiple players to improve the team.
===============================
This is basically what BB has evolved into. The highest team WAR generally generates the most wins. So the more WAR you have per dollar spent, the better your chances.
IRT the RS, while the writers hammer these guys, if I can get 2 WAR out of Duran for minimum wage, and 2 WAR out of Dalbec/Hosmer at minimum wage, I can live with that. Spend the money on an ace.
IRT specifically to Correa, one of the negatives going into last year was that he cannot stay on the field. He’s really good, but missed 53 in ’17, 52 in ’18, 87 in ’19. He was healthy in ’20, but might not have had the chance to get injured. 2021 was healthy, but still missed 14 games. And this year, he’s missed 24 games in 2/3rds of a season.
For Correa a lot of missed games this year we’re covid iirc so that may count for less of missed games
It was amusing, to say the least, to see Giminez out WAR Lindor until August 1st of this year.
I believe Lindor is making 50x what Giminez is getting. Oh, and CLE has Rosario and 12 controllable years of two minor leaguers. Great job, Cohen.
This is old news. He has stated multiple times that LA has grown on him since he made those statements and would love to stay here. With that said, the Dodgers will probably offer him 5 – 6 years with an extremely generous annual average. If Turner takes it, great. If he doesn’t, the Dodgers are fully prepared to move on without him.
What do you expect him to say during the season? I’m pretty sure every impending free agent has said something similar. Would be stupid not to.
Who knows what’ll happen, but here’s another Dodger fan crawling out of the muck…“The Dodgers are fully prepared to move on…” LOL who talks like this? Are you in the front office? Are they gonna run it by you first?
Because the Dodgers seldom extend anyone, no matter how much they hope to retain them. Their MO for almost all players is to allow them to test free agency, and if they want them back, to pay them what they would have gotten somewhere else. If there’s one player they need to re-sign this winter it’s T. Turner, but if it happens then this is probably how it will happen.
Repeat
I like Carlos Correa a lot. Think when healthy he’s the best and most impactful SS in MLB.
However, he’s missed over 20% of Twins games this year with injuries – a problem he had throughout his Astros career.
If you’re going to rank possible FA players and discuss how attractive they are to other teams, it seems to me that this should have been noted……because that will be the overruling factor in his finding a team to give him anything close to what the Twins are on the line for if he doesn’t opt out….and we’re talking a 10 year contract?
That’s why only the Twins seriously bid on him.
The Tigers offer sure seemed serious, to everyone but him.
Guess he didn’t want to play in Detroit and lose 90-100 until Al Avila gets canned.
Didn’t the Mets give Bassitt a 1 year extension , 2 months ago ?
The Mets need to keep their guys deGrom, Diaz, Bassitt and Nimmo in that order.
Try to trade McCann and bring up Alvarez with Nido backing him up.
Would love to also bring up Baty to play 3b and Vientos to play RF move Marte to LF.
Canha and Escobar bench guys and DH.
The Mets need a left handed starter.
Hoping rotation of deGrom, Scherzer,Bassitt, Lefty and Megill or resign (Carrasco or Walker)..
Batting order: Nimmo,Marte,Lindor,Alonso,McNeil,Vientos,Baty,Alvarez,and ? Canha
Peterson is a lefty that could fit right in there.
Canha is awful, if he gets a hit it’s a single but he’s been brutal all around the last 2 months. Escobar has an OBP under .300 fortunately he plays good defense and hits we’ll from the right side but he’s awful from the left. Baty and Alvarez need to be up next season for sure. They need to keep Diaz, deGrom and Nimmo. Walker and Bassitt are nice pieces too. They’re going to have a lot of free agents to bring back. Diaz is most important to me.
Bassitt and the Mets have a mutual option for $19 million next year, an increase from his $8.65 million salary. The buyout on that option is $150k
Not sure why you would have Canha or Escobar anywhere near DH when you have Vogelbach under contract (Arb) next year to hit RHP.
Baty and Alvarez will be in Syracuse for at least a half a season in 2023. Neither has proven themselves at the AAA level yet. Vientos has a total of 13 minor league games in the Outfield, there is no way he is the Mets right fielder in 2023.
It’s a $19m mutual option with Bassitt, acc to BB-Ref.
The Mets need three starters for 2022. To replace deGrom (possibly with deGrom, but with their payroll if they sign him to all guaranteed money, they’re fools), Walker, and Bassitt (possibly also with Bassitt).
And Megill won’t be around for more than 120 innings, if that.
I thought Judge was dumb for not taking that 7 year/$213.5 million dollar offer initially. I stand corrected. The question is, how much are the Yankees willing to offer now that he’s having a historic season despite being a 31 year old free agent with a history of injuries? I won’t be surprised if he gets a $300 million dollar offer but what if a team offered a shorter deal with a ridiculously high AAV (with an opt out included)? It could be enough to lure him away from the NYY and teams like the Dodgers, Mets and possibly Angels cannot be counted out.
Don’t forget them Giants. Ha
Yessir
Even if he some how got $35mm AAV (which he won’t get), he won’t get more than a 7 year deal. He’s 31 going into next season, doubt anyone will want to sign him for age 38 season. So 7 x 35 would only be $245mm. I wouldn’t be shocked if he signs for pretty close to what he already turned down. He is having a great year, but he was already viewed as an elite player.
You’re correct, that no one wants to pay Judge for his age 38 season. But people do things they don’t want to because it’s something they need to do.
Every PBO/GM knows that the years at the tail end of a mega deal are not going to be anywhere near the price. They’re just hoping the decline is later rather than sooner.
But they do it as the cost of getting the guy they want to sign. It’s the price of doing business. Don’t be surprised when Judge’s contract exceeds your estimate in both dollars, and years.
But they don’t do it, haven’t for a few years now. Contracts are shorter for players on the wrong side of 30. Trout excluded, recent contracts don’t take a player past age 38. Clubs have also shown a cap of around $32.5mm for contracts longer than 7 years for position players. Fans love to fantasize about contracts that never actually come to fruition though.
They don’t? The Dodgers will pay Betts almost $33M for his age 39 season. Harper’s and Trout’s contract include their age 38 season. Lindor will make $34M+ for his age 37 season. Pitchers injury risk is greater than a position player and the Yankees will pay Cole $36M for his age 37 season.
Really, what’s the difference between paying for the 37th year, and the 38th? PBOs/GMs might want to draw the line at age 37, but with multiple bidders, if adding the age 38 season is the difference between signing him or not, some team will do that.
@tad2b13 You may well be right. I thought the sane offer to Kris Bryant was 3/60m for the 3-win, injury prone 30 yo corner guy with below average defense and whose star years are long and forever gone.
What happened? Bryant got 7/$182m. There isn’t always one, but in baseball there’s often one. Most GMs will be gone by the time 2030 rolls around. Short of a serious injury and with the DH in both leagues, Judge will get 8 years.
JackStrawb:
Thanks. I meant to look at Bryant, but I forgot. (I could say I didn’t want my post to get too wordy, but that wouldn’t be true.)
8 years at 40 per. $320. The Yankees should eat that up. They make $20 mil per year on K
Merch, tix and promos from him. A replacement player will cost $20 and offer none of that extra revenue. You’re left with a replacement player and 1/4 of the production , angry fans and no face of baseball. Why wouldn’t you sign him?
Angels would gladly sign Judge to a 10-yr/300MM deal and watch him become the next Albert Pujols after 3 years and then lose Ohtani to free agency and then watch Ohtani be in the MVP conversation for years on another team
You’re not the first one to mention Pujols, but I just don’t see him as a comparable to Judge. Even though he played other positions, Pujols was a best fit at 1B, And even then, his defensive numbers were declining in his last few years before he left StL.
.Judge is much more athletic, and mobile, Though Pujols could still hit late in his career he could hardly run. It was painful to watch him run when he had to. I don’t see that same career arc for Judge given his physical make-up. Plus Pujols is a year older now than Judge would be at the end of a 10 year deal.
Judge is going to wind up becoming a DH 3 or 4 years into his next contract. He’s not going to be a stellar fast outfielder at 35, 36 years old.
Pinole is hitting.350 against left handers 1.207 ops . Ya he sucks????
Tigers need power in the OF, and have money to spend.
Judge wanted a 10/360 extension.
@CravenMoorehead Don’t expect the Mets to be in on Judge. They need a starting CFer, a closer, relievers, and at least 3 starting pitchers, and payroll is already through the roof.
No mention of the fact that Eric Hosmer can opt out of his contract? Lol
That brings up an interesting question, If Hosmer opted out, would that mean the Padres didn’t have to pay the Red Sox any money beyond this season? Yes, I realize he will never do that. Just If he did, what would that mean money wise to the Padres and Red Sox.
With A-Rod, Shields and Stanton they specifically wrote it in that any money the original team paid the acquiring team after the opt-out was only payable if he didn’t opt out. Not sure if the same was true for Nolan Arenado. I want to believe Preller was smart enough to get that written in but he might not have wasted his time because Hosmer is obviously not going to opt out.
Big Daddy Cohen is going to really have to open up the wallet if he wants to keep the Mets together. Nothing significant is coming off the books aside from deGrom’s opt out, and he’ll probably get 4/$160 million if he wants it. Diaz could break $100 million, too.
Plus, Nimmo is a FA. His $7 million salary coming off the books is counter-acted by Marte’s salary increasing from $15.75 million to $20.75 million and McCann’s jumping $4 million ($8.15 million to $12.15 million).
Then there’s Carrasco and Bassitt with mutual options for $14 million and $19 million, which are increases from $12 million and $8.65 million, respectively. Taijuan Walker has a $6 million player option that he’s definitely declining.
Arb-wise, Alonso and McNeil are going to get big increases on their $7.4 million and $3 million respective salaries.
Add up the players who may not come back, due to FA or DFA: Dom Smith ($3.95 million), Trevor May ($7 million), Naquin ($4 million), Ottavino ($4 million), Trevor Williams ($3.95 million), Lugo ($3 million) and that’s only $26 million.
Sorry for the long post, but however you slice it, unless Cohen wants to spend into the stratosphere, this will probably be a much different Mets team next year.
DeGrom is coming off the books, but I suspect he’s going right back on the books with a higher deal.
Yeah, that’s what I think, too. Don’t know how it’ll shake out, but I made that 4/$160 million prediction on the assumption that the Mets will offer it. I think four years of $40 million each might be enough for deGrom.
You may be right but any team will be foolish to sign deGrom to a 40m AAV across 4 years. He’s not averaging 5-6 WAR a year over that deal. There’s probably going to be at least one missing year in that deal.
Imagine carrying two old pitchers for $83-87m a year in 2023-24 with little guarantee you’re getting 230 innings total out of them per year.
Scherzer money?
Cohen should call the Reds, replace Diaz with his little brother who is making league minimum and is team controlled for 5 years. It would take a minor league haul to get him but the Reds won’t need him for at least 2-3 more years. Mets open a lot of payroll space with such a move.
Didn’t know they were brothers.
Have seen the younger Diaz pitch for the Reds. He is impressive. Can be overpowering. A bit inconsistent at times, but assume he’ll iron that over as he gets older.
On top of that – penalty increase goes up when u repeatedly go over cap year in and year out. He’s bound to hit a 400 million dollar payroll in a couple years if they keep everyone. Crazy !
I’ve been hopeful this is the off season the Angels land a shortstop, but we have so many holes to fill and the market will likely get nuts.
Turner, Correa, Xander, Swanson, and likely Tim Anderson will be the pecking order.
Teams needing a shortstop: Dodgers, Red Sox, Braves, White Sox if Anderson’s option is declined, Angels, Twins, Phillies
I could also see the Mariners and Giants snagging one.
Last I checked when demand greatly exceeds supply things get expensive.
I’d be shocked if Dansby isn’t coming back to Atlanta.
Dunno if I’d be so confident. Braves have a history of going only so far and no more. Mostly to their benefit, I’d add.
I’m thinking that Dansby gives them a hometown discount.
Out of curiosity, how many players have actually done that?
By his own admission, Joe Musgrove gave the Padres a hometown discount when he signed an extension a few weeks ago.
Jered Weaver.
The list is short enough that we can recall the few who did, though, which rather proves your point.
The hometown discount is the unicorn of baseball. Lots claim to have seen one, but none can prove it.
Yup. Who’s the last guy the Braves erroneously let walk?
Not sure if it’s erroneous, only time will tell, but they let Freddie Freeman walk.
I’d be shocked if he does. If he was willing to give the Braves a hometown discount, he probably wouldn’t have waited until he was on the verger of free-agency. He would have been extended by now.
And when was the last time the Braves were willing to pay market value? With the exception of Ozuna, I can’t think of one. Morton was a bargain because he wanted to be there.
It seems like if they can’t sign a guy to a team-friendly deal, like Acuna or Albies did, they’re gone. Can’t see them winning the bidding for Swanson.
I hope I’m wrong, but I look for this to be Dansby’s last year in Atlanta. If they wouldn’t go all-in on Freeman, I just can’t see them exceeding their comfort zone for Swanson. I think they’ll have a price point in mind, and if they can’t get him for it they’ll sign a stopgap until Grissom is ready.
Have any of the folks claiming that Grissom is going to be a ss in Atlanta ever seen Grissom throw? He’s got a 2B arm. Don’t believe that he’ll play ss or 3B in the majors. Hope I’m wrong about his arm, but I don’t think so.
I’ve only seen highlights, and they’ve mostly been of him in the box. They’ve got his arm rated as a 55, though.
Dansby is gone. He’s going to a stupidly high offer that Braves will never consider matching. That’s a lock !
If he was gonna sign a home town discount – he would have done that 2-3 years ago.
@Big whiffa Cromulent regular but no more than that having a career year out of the blue in his walk year, and turning 29? Yeah, he’s not coming back to the Braves.
With the latest CBA, they’re trying to get players to free agency sooner. Every one of these guys listed has red flags and it’s just a matter of human aging / breakdown that these 30 something’s will experience a mild to steep statistical drop off.
From guys like Shin Soo Choo to more prominent names like Pujols or Cano, numbers don’t lie.
Both the teams and players should be aiming for shorter contracts with higher AAV. Player legacies benefit, team payrolls and commitments benefit, and it’s a better product on the field for the fans.
What’s the benefit to the player to take a shorter contract when their value is highest? They want longer with a higher AAV.
The shorter the contract, the higher the AAV. A player may be better off bypassing a 7 yr $245M contract ($35M AAV) for a 4 yr $180M ($45M AAV) because they can hit free agency after 4 years.
Most players like the security of a longer deal, even if that means a lower AAV. Anything can happen. Players know their careers can be cut short by injury. Even if an injury isn’t career ending, the impact of it can mean diminished production. And that would be a huge negative looking for a new deal after 4 years.
Plus, using your example, they’ll weigh the guaranteed money. Of course it depends on the specifics of any guy’s situation, but generally, a lot of players will think $245M in guaranteed money is better than $180M, given the unknowns beyond those 4 years.,
Pirates fans wish list:
1. Carlos Rodon
2. Jose Abreu
Pirates fans realistic list:
1. Re-sign Josh Van Meter and Ben Gamel
#FML
Correa would be a fool to enter this free agent market given the season he’s had. Boras will probably push him to opt out regardless since he only got a very small cut from Correa’s current deal but he would be smart to wait another year
He’s guaranteed $70M for 2 years right now, but if he hits the open market he can likely lock down $200M+ on a longer deal.
His AAV might drop a little because of the length, but he wouldn’t be a fool for taking the much bigger guarantee.
He still has the opt-out next year. My number for him is $175M/7, given the number of injuries. If that’s right, then the marginal would be $105M/5. At age 29/30, he’d have to have a pretty decent decline to not get that.
Correa’s a 3 WAR player since the end of 2018 with the exception of his one great year since then, 2021.
Any team that signs him as other than a post-peak 3 win player with some upside is kidding themselves. Correa very much fits the profile of a guy who’s out of the league as of 33.
He’s 27 right now and had a 5.2 WAR year last year. It’s true that he’s on pace for around 3 WAR this year, but I don’t think you can call him “post peak” at that age. Look at the ages on the rest of this class, I’m pretty sure he’s literally the youngest FA available this year.
Many players have their best seasons before their late 20s.
Marlins wish list…any one of the SS’s.
My biggest fear is they’ll sign another corner OF/DH type; not add a closer; not add a CF (if we don’t have an internal solution); not add another 3B (if the solution isn’t internal) then wonder why we can’t hold leads among the many other issues.
Kim Ng has no excuses this year!
Bogaerts to Seattle as a 2B
Turner stays in LA
Judge gets signed by the Angels because…they’re the Angels
Verlander stays in Houston
Rodon to Philly
Diaz gets 20MM AAV
Swanson to the Cubs
Correa to the Braves
Arenado stays in St Louis
deGrom goes to Dodger blue
A NY double switch in the works. Judge signs with the Mets while deGrom signs with the Yankees.
L99: IF* the Yankees truly want to win big, they will sign: Judge, Turner, & DeGrom. They won’t, and that’s a pipe dream for Yankees fans. But, Turner is a perfect bat for any lineup, especially the Yanks. And, he’s as good as anyone they have at SS defensively.
DeGrom or Verlander (I prefer DeGrom) is critical to have in their rotation to bring them to the next level. A true co-ace, if you will, reminiscent of the ‘17 Astros or the ‘20 Dodgers.
I do believe they need two out of the three… even a Swanson/Judge/DeGrom offseason would be wonderful, imo. Then Gleyber & one of Volpe/Peraza are expendable, among others.
Yes, Verlander should be in there too. The path to a world title is greased by shut-down starters.
BTW Haven’t seen you post in a while. Thought maybe you went they way of Ducky!
Yankee Clipper
DeGrom or Verlander (I prefer DeGrom) is critical to have in their rotation to bring them to the next level. A true co-ace,
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100% spot-on correct, imo. My philosophy is good defense, a league-average lineup, 3 decent 3-4-5 SPs, two #1’s, a closer and a setup.
If you have a decent farm, you can produce most of your team at a reasonable price. Then you go all-in on the DeGrom/Verlander and hope for good health.
Like I mentioned above, I don’t mind the RS having some mediocre, low-wage players on the team, provided that the money they save is spent on aces.
The Mets are signing Judge instead of deGrom? Why–to trade for deGrom from the Yankees?
Diaz at $20 million is what I think will happen, too. 5/$100 million, maybe 4/$80 million.
I don’t see the Dodgers, or anyone, getting deGrom. Cohen will pay whatever it takes, especially if deGrom stays healthy down the stretch. Letting deGrom get away would’ve been a Wilpon move. I don’t see Cohen letting it happen.
@rct With the Mets payroll close to $300m __without__ deGrom? They need 3 starters, a closer, a bullpen, and a starting CFer (how did they never extend Nimmo?). You really think they’ll go to $350m plus penalties for the forseeable future?
At $44m AAV, deGrom’s salary in practice borders on what, $70 million per season??
The Mets may or may not re-sign deGrom. That being said, in my opinion if they don’t, they will regret it. The Wilpons made that mistake with Wheeler. Cohen shouldn’t with deGrom. Regardless of the payroll. The Mets opened this door when they extended the half year wonder T Bauer that lucrative contract he turned down (luckily) to go to the Dodgers.
I would take the gamble on Jake all the time. You cannot let him go to a division rival or across town to the Yankees. Re-sign deGrom / Diaz and piece it together from there. Verlander is 39 and still dealing.
I can’t see three quarters of those things happening, You have two of the wealthiest teams in MLB, NYM and SF, not signing anyone, and yet the parsimonious Braves are signing Correa?
I do agree that Bogaerts will be signed to play a position other than SS.
You’re right tad. The Braves won’t sign Correa for 2 reasons. Imo, there’s no way they pay a guy who can’t stay healthy the kind of salary Boras will claim Correa is worth, and #2—the Braves don’t sign Boras clients. Judge to the Angels is also the least likely landing spot possible.
Don’t see Seattle paying Bogaerts SS money to play 2B, and he will want SS money!
I’d rather have Trea Turner than Judge
Even with all the time missed Judge clocks in at 1 win better per season over the past 5 years.
I have no sources nor anything to back this up with other than just a hunch, but I see the Orioles making a strong bid for deGrom.
Camden Yards is now suddenly an attractive destination for starting pitchers. Orioles are headed in the right direction. Winning games. Future looks bright. Tons of money to spend. Makes a lot of sense.
The one argument against that is I doubt the Orioles are thinking they’re in a win-now situation. They’re probably looking more to 2024 at the earliest, and with a guy like deGrom, who’ll be 35 next season, with a significant injury history, who knows how productive he’ll be in 2024-25 when they’re in go mode. I think teams with a real shot at a WS title next season will be the teams more interested.
skinsfandfw;
Like the Astros and Dodgers the Orioles find pitchers that are underperforming. Their scouts/ analysts using video and analytics will recommend candidates to sign. The FO will go maybe 75% of what they think he’ll be worth if they successfully square him away (look at the Dodgers signing of Andrew Heaney which had people here thinking it was a radical overpay). Think buy low / sell high.
So I doubt they pay retail for deGrom or anyone else. Eovaldi might be the best name possibility – he’s been pitching far below what he’s capable of. As Elias said, they’ll “look around”.
Diaz is going to get paid, and his on his on the field performance has been off the charts, but the history of big-money long-term relief signings doesn’t give a lot of room for comfort, A lot of those contracts, no matter how formidable the pitcher was when it was handed out, have meh returns and end up being albatross signings. Mariano, Hoffman, Wagner….
Confused about your last sentence. Rivera earned every penny and then some. Not sure when Hoffman was an albatross, either, as he had only one bad season, which was his last one, and in the first year of that contract, he was dominant. Wagner was fantastic until the end, too.
Yes, I posted in error. Hit post without finishing the sentence that those three were the exceptions, and just came back to it. You are correct
haha, no worries. This commenting system can be rocky at times.
adding to this because I left the wrong impression. Mariano, Hoffman and Wagner were exceptions—they sustained high performance
Agreed, but in Diaz’s favor is that he’ll be 29, and he’s having an historically great season, with a world-record K rate and a FIP that’s half a PEAK Mariano Rivera season.
His ERA+ in 2022, if the season ended today, would be a close third in the context of Rivera’s entire career. He’s really, really good.
Padres got a steal with the early Musgrove ink. It’s going to be a slaughterhouse out there next year in the arms market with low supply/high demand . I think he coulda fetched a 6/150 if he had a good 2 + months …can’t argue his decision tho, San Diego is a nice play to live out your days
I was pretty surprised that it was only 5 years. I thought they were going to try to lower the AAV by going like 7 or 8 years and buying out his age 35-37 seasons at reduced rates.
He would have done better on the open market. Rare example of a hometown discount.
He’s turning 30 and his ERA+ since he turned a corner is still only 124. That’s really good, but it’s also Musgrove’s peak.
If it wasn’t for those pesky Home/Road splits, that Arenado guy would be pretty good.
What does a Rodon contract look like? Am I crazy for thinking he will have trouble getting a much higher AAV for 4-5 years? Like, I’m thinking about him getting 5 years 125m and it seems high risk. 4/100 seems a little better. He’s had a good year but I’m not sure he actually can get the same AAV over 4-5 years. Probably somewhere in between 4/80-5/100 I guess.
People want deDrom with the Braves but AA never does what the fans want.
1. Resign Swanson. I wouldn’t mind any of the SS available, but Swanson is underrated and will likely cost the least. Keep him.
2. Sign deGrom – there is a risk with injury history but if the Mets take the division this season, this might be a big move to fight back. The Braves will need pitching desperately. Do it!
3. Trade/release Ozuna
Judge, Turner, and Correa 8/280
Arenado 7/231
Bogaerts 7/182
DeGrom 4/148
Swanson 6/156
Rodon 4/112
Verlander 3/111 (he’s going to play till he’s 50)
Diaz 5/100
Whew! RIP to the team paying Swanson more than half that. I’d rather devote that to landing deGrom to pitch for his childhood team and allow our top prospect (Vaughn Grissom) to take the reins.
You keep claiming that Grissom is going to be the next SS in Atlanta. Have you ever even seen him play SS? He’s got a 2B arm. He’s a more viable candidate for a position change than being the next Atlanta SS. The Braves aren’t going to outbid Cohen for DeGrom either—especially if the “4 years at 40 mill plus” takes on here are correct. Swanson at less than half of 156 million? Imo, he’ll get multiple offers higher than that. AAV probably in the 18-21 mill range for 5-7 years.
The Mets are likely to issue 4 QOs this year. I know Steve Cohen [and Met fans like myself] would want to re-sign them all but I’m not sure that will happen.
DeGrom, Diaz, Nimmo…, …?
I’d rather the Angels go the smart route, rather than just trying to make a big splash. Try to sign Josh Bell. Bring in a closer. Package Walsh and Stassi with a couple of prospects for Snell. The Padres get someone to play first and a catcher. The Angels get one year of Snell to put behind Ohtani in the rotation. The way Rengifo is playing right now, I’d be ok for the Angels not adding a high price FA middle infielder. Depending on how Adell finishes this season, they Angels could look at a corner outfielder.
Great!
What do they do in 2024 and beyond?
This is exactly the problem with the Angels.
Samuel, the Angels biggest problem this season has been the lack of hitting. The second has been health. Signing Tre Turner or Judge to long term deals, won’t solve all the Angels problems.
I’m hardly suggesting they sign any more players to long-term deals…..
I believe they should quit spending all their time and money building a ML roster each year for the following season and instead put in a scouting / coaching infrastructure to build up the farm system, sign waiver wire guys, and develop multiple quality young players for a core…..as all winning teams do.
Blow it up and be done with it. For all the talk about building around Trout, and now extending Ohtani and building around him? IMHO, the guy to build around is Detmers. The Angels stupidly brought him up in 2021 and blew a year of service time, but he and Sandoval are a pretty good 1/2, with a good amount of control. And maybe Suarez & Silseth are guys that can provide decent innings.
But the idea of continuing to sign big-money guys, when your chances of making the playoffs are small, makes not sense to me.
Or, just for comparison purposes, Oakland has traded almost everyone of value, and are still only 7 games behind the Angels. In three years, I’d bet they pass them.
Arte will never blow it up. So let’s not pretend that will ever happen. Arte will probably go out and sign Judge, which will help the Angels pathetic offense. But without people constantly getting on in front of Trout, Ohtani and if they do sign Judge. No one is beating the Yankees or Astros by hitting solo homers.
All due respect Angelsfan4life, but I don’t believe a package centered around Walsh and Stassi will net you Snell. Pads are deep at 1B and C for ’23. Not to say we couldn’t strike a deal, but the proposed foundation probably wouldn’t tickle any fancies.
That was more of an example, than actually thinking that would be the move they make. Padres will be looking to stay under the luxury tax. That’s why I used him as an example. Ohtani, Sandoval and Detmers are 3 solid rotation pieces. The Angels need to upgrade the bullpen. Chris Rodriguez could be another solid starter or late inning relief pitcher.
Padres aren’t deep at 1B
Ohtani has thrown 294 innings in the equivalent of 2.5 seasons. Not exactly a “solid rotation piece.”
Going to take way more than that to get Snell. You realize we gave up Luis Patiño and Cole Wilcox for him right? He’s also quietly been elite for the last month, maybe month and a half.
Jake Cronenworth can play a mean 1B, perhaps even All-Star worthy. Perhaps they look to address the “issue” further but that can come in FA or extending Bell. Pads have $130m pre-Arb payroll for ’23; the CBT may not be as pressing an issue as some may believe.
Prefer Jake as a superutility. It’s rare to have a guy who can move around the diamond and still hit well. Most of the time you try that you end up with Wil Myers.
And it’s unwise to assume Josh Bell or anyone else automatically signs an extension.
Who assumed Bell doesn’t have a say? Your argumentative and semantic games are really funny LH, especially when you project your contrarian status onto others. I’m merely suggesting that if the Pads don’t feel like Crone is their firstbaseman then they will address the “issue”… I quote issue because it doesn’t seem like that big of one. In the meantime, I’d also suggest that they’re only worried about ’22 for now and we are merely speculating, as usual. I do like Jake as a super-Ute kinda guy, too… so we’ll see what direction the team goes this offseason (but there’s plenty of ’22 ball yet to be played.)
I mean it’s kind of Preller’s job to worry about years that aren’t 2022. Padres could definitely use Jared Walsh after 2022.
The Padres have 2 guys who can and have play super-utility and hit for average or better offense with exceptional defense: Crone and Kim. Both are already under contract next year. Walsh hits for well below average offense and has little defensive utility.
I fail to see how trading 1 of the only 3 starters the Padres have under contract for 2023 and the one currently pitching best, for a position that they already have covered, helps them.
It doesn’t, The Padres still don’t have “depth” at 1st base. They traded all of it away because of Hosmer and then they traded him too.
The Padres currently have 4 starting quality infielders under contract for 2023 for 4 positions. They currently have 3 starting pitchers under contract for 5 starting positions. One is a far bigger need.
Overpaying for Josh Bell’s career year as he enters his 30s WOULD be an Angels’ move, come to think of it.
If Schwarber and Castellanos are, absurdly, getting 20m a year for 4 and 5 year deals, is Bell headed for 6/144m?
Rarely in MLB history has there been a free agent with a higher number of glaring red flags than Aaron Judge. 31 years old the first month of the contract, 6’7 300 lbs, and an already established record of being highly fragile. Any 1 of those 3 facts make it stupid to sign him, the 3 of them combined make it insane. Will likely be Cashman’s next albatross contract (by the way- no World Series title for 13 years and counting and only 1 in the past 22 years- despite staggering payrolls- very often the biggest payroll in MLB- year after year after year). Already 1 of the worst contracts of all time and he isn’t even a free agent yet.
So, let us ask you this regarding Judge…does he have more “red flags” than say Ohtani who is 1 pitch away potentially from TJ while his value is based not only on his pitching but his hitting as well…..and you’d pay a Kings ransom for his services right? Or how about Tatis Jr. whose monster contract just may demand a position change to save his arm and his body right? And the Padres paid a Kings damson long term for him…….its a given that age and size does play into this but look at Randy Johnson during his prime…..couldn’t touch him could you…….
His red flags are the same as any ballplayer playing the game right now…..the issue at hand is the length of the contracts these ballplayers are commanding and the danger in value if/when they can’t play the requisite number of games that the yearly value is based on by the team……
It will be interesting to see what the Yankees eventually offer and the expectations of Yankee fans is that it will get done….but you never know.
No, I wouldn’t want Ohtani either. He will be 30 the 1st year of his next contract and he has only had 2 notable seasons as a pitcher- last year and this year, and the hitting hasn’t been consistent, either (big drop off this year, for example). Too much inconsistency and not only has he only had 2 notable seasons as a pitcher in half a decade in MLB, but those are also his only truly standout seasons at all- highly overrated. Don’t know about Tatis in terms of whether it was smart to sign him because he was already under team control for a long time.
His red flags are not the same as any other player in MLB- he’s one of the biggest people to ever play in MLB, he’s 31 in the 1st season of his next contract, and he’s already established as a highly fragile player. The only way for a free agent to be more of a glaring red flag is to be a Milton Bradley type. Zero chance- I repeat Zero chance- that Aaron Judge’s next contract is a disaster. People also doubted when I posted after Trout’s big decline in 2020 that he was a 4-6 WAR level player from that point and that his prime was definitely over (by the way, he’s no longer a 4-6 WAR player with his latest injury- now he’s a 2-4 level player).
Meant Zero chance that his next contract isn’t a disaster.
Yeah, that seemed obvious given your take on Judge. Good that you fixed it just to be sure, lol.
And even in Ohtani’s great seasons (only 2 of them in half a decade in MLB), his value hasn’t been phenomenal by any means. His value last season would have been tied for Trout’s 5th best season and this year he is significantly worse than that. 1 of the most overrated players I can remember and he’s already middle aged by MLB standards.
Well said. I would have agreed with you on Trout, fwiw.
Tatis is also looking bad, even this early. 4 trips (or is it 5?) to the IL *already*?? Missed half a season, played 59 of 60, missed 30 games, will miss at least 100 games… and they’re on the hook for $340m when the cost of his first 6 seasons would have totaled about 30% of his FA value for those years, plus the possibility of a haul at the final deadline of those seasons?
As for Betts, think the Dodgers will enjoy paying him $315m AFTER his 30th birthday?
Wouldn’t sign anyone 28 or over for more than 5 years. Or anyone at all for more than 7 years.
Folks have been using his height against him forever. I thinks it’s time to realize he’s an outlier and his size doesn’t matter.
Mets will replace deGrom with Verlander, while the Dutchman will take a big Texas cheque…
Lots of talent could potentially be leaving NY next year. Mets and Yankees will both be willing to spend a ton, but the power dynamic can really shift if some of these guys move.
None of those guys are moving unless the owner want them to….and they’ll immediately be replaced by others.
They’ll definitely be replaced with those GMs, but that doesn’t always worked out as planned. I don’t envy those GMs. Some tough calls need to be made. But to your point the Yanks and Mets are both in a good place. They’ll certainly be competing again next year.
The Mets are in a horrifying place, with payroll for 2023 already at $240m, and $277m if options are exercised. They need 3 starting pitchers, a starting CFer, a closer, and half a bullpen, plus some odds and ends. Even a $300m payroll won’t come close to getting it done.
They have almost no one at those positions of need. Alvarez turns McCann into a 10m backup. Baty, maybe, turns Escobar into a 10m backup. Are they going to fake a LFer and pretend Marte can still play CF? Bring back deGrom for Scherzer money, Nimmo at 20m AAV, Diaz at 20m AAV? Then you’re up to something like $323 million with work still to be done, and two old starters who may well struggle to reach 250 innings, combined. .
Saying the Mets are in a good place is like saying the Titanic, after it hit the iceberg, is okay because they have a few hours to fill the lifeboats. Enjoy 2022. 2023-2024 are going to be ugly.
Right, players like Scherzer, Verlander, etc are at a point in their careers of still being great yet also where they could fall off a cliff any time.
JackStrawb18 hours ago
The Mets are in a horrifying place, with payroll for 2023 already at $240m,
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I tried to make that sound more reasonable, but yeah, to keep just Nimmo & Diaz (assuming they opt into Carrasco & Bassitt), I’m up to $340M, and that’s without DeGrom. That almost sounds impossible.
Except their owner can and will spend whatever he wants. He has money unlike any other owner in baseball. I’m not saying he will bring back every free agent but you can’t compare the Mets financially to any other team in baseball because their resources are in another stratosphere. Steve Cohen will not allow the money to get in the way of winning.
Correa opting out after one year seemed like a foregone conclusion before the season, but I gotta think there’s at least a 50% chance he stands pat for a year to try and rebuild his value for a bigger contract next offseason, no? He may get more years if he opts out, but no way he tops his current AAV, and next year would only be his age 28 season, leaving age 29+ for a longer term deal.
Something eclipsing Cole’s contract seems about right for Judge. He’ll want to be the highest paid Yankee, I’d imagine.
That’s not going to happen. No one’s paying $325m for Judge, even if he parks 65 HR this year.
From 2018 through today he was a little more valuable than Marcus Semien. A little more—about 0.4 WAR per season. And even superstars are routinely done by their early 30s. Pujols wasn’t elite past 30, and wasn’t anything special after 32. Miggy was toast after 33. Trout’s last great year came when he was, check this, 27. Betts? 26. Cano had one great year after 31. Votto was done as a star after 33. Longoria peaked at 24-25, and wasn’t worth a lineup slot after 32.
And these are the HOFers, or very close to it. Even his mother won’t pay Judge $325m.
You would think that teams would have learned by now, but some idiot (likely Cashman) will likely still sign Aaron Judge to an albatross contract. And I bet even after this season, there will still be many fans claiming Trout is “still in his prime”. Like you said- his prime is long-gone. 2019 was the last season of his prime at the latest- arguably 2018 since that was his last season as a complete player, but definitely no later than 2019. He’s a complete shell of the player he used to be and can be counted on for 2-4 WAR of actual production going forward (assuming he continues playing). After his across the board decline in 2020 I posted that Trout’s prime was over and that he was a 4-6 WAR player going forward (with the latest injury it has been downgraded to 2-4 WAR), and most were incredulous.
The warning signs of decline with Trout began in 2019 because it was the 1st season of his career that he wasn’t good either defensively or with SB- not to mention the fact that he missed 28 games. He wasn’t good defensively in 2014 however he stole 16 bases, which is basically the minimum required to be a legitimate SB threat. Only 11 SB in 2019 to go along with average defense. Then in 2020, across the board major decline- SB dropped to practically 0 (and have never rebounded at all), defense was horrible, and OPS dropped 100 points. So when I made the statement after 2020, it was also factoring the 2019 season. It became undeniable after 2020- 2 consecutive seasons of major decline in key areas.
Judge is a goner from NYY!
I find it amazing how often players just happen to have career years in contract seasons.
Judge is a heck of a player, but I’d bet he never has another season like this one, but will get paid that way for the next 10 years.
And the 2nd half his next contract will likely become a huge problem for whichever team signs him. He’ll be easily making $30M+ a year, but will he perform that way during his age 36-41 seasons?
I find it amazing how often players just happen to have career years in contract seasons.
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It’s always the same, and with good reason. All it takes is one GM to decide that Judge is finally healthy, and that he averaged 50 HRs over two years because he is finally healthy. It’s just like fans trying to decide for or against a player by looking the numbers from different angles.
Everybody remembers the guys that had big seasons before their walk year, but nobody remembers the guys that had bad seasons. You think Rodon would have had to settle for his deal with the Giants if he’d had a big season in 2021?
With Brandon Belt a FA next season he isn’t exactly lighting it up. Adam Frazier? Wil Myers? I bet you could find a lot of guys in their walk year this season that are underperforming.
Not true, in fact. It’s an easy issue to study, and while players play a hair better, on average, in their walk years, it’s not statistically significant.
You’d expect guys to put up a little more value—the temptation to play through injuries you’d nurse if you had a 5 year deal has to be there—but the myth that players turn it on in their walk years is exactly that.
Think of it this way. Guys know that they’re aiming for a big FA deal, and that multiyear peaks are the way to sell themselves to clubs, not just with a freak season when they’re heading to market. In short, if they could turn it on, they’d turn it on every year, not just prior to their FA year.
But there are some, and the fact that they are one-offs doesn’t seem to faze some GMs. Castellanos was an ordinary player, if that, with a career 1.4 bWAR/650 PAs before 2019. He had a 2.8 in 2019, and most of that was off of 2 good months. Those two good months got him $64M/4.
Then he returned to being the Old Castellanos with a 0.00 WAR. The he had an opt-out, and he returned to being a 3.2 NC. Once he signed for $80M/4, he reverted back to his -0.6 NC.
That said, how many of last year’s top-20 had big seasons?
Correa
Gausman
Semien
Ray
Nick C.
Stroman
Marte
Schwarber
Iglesias
Not to say these were over the top great years, but a lot of these guys have had their best years when they became FAs.
And that would make intuitive sense. I’d like to think I would show up in good shape every year, I am almost certain I’d spend the entire winter getting in the best shape of my life, cutting out fat and alcohol, hitting the weights, the cage and the track every day. Regular folks do this as well.
Grissom just called up by the Braves to play ——2B. Like scouting reports acknowledge, he’s more likely to be a 2Bman in the majors than a SS. This call-up is injury related (Arcia/Albies) but the point remains.
Talk about throwing the kid in the fire. Braves in the middle of a post season run and he’s got to learn a new position
Guess they’re counting on the 7 minor league games he’s played at 2B this season as enough, lol. Braves FO knows a helluva lot more about him than I do. Hoping it works out for them.
Due to expansion players don’t learn all their skills at the minor league level. (Players are called up for short periods of time because they do one or two things well that’s needed due to injury or ML players being exhausted.) Rather teams call them up and (as the phrase was used 7-8 years ago): “Finish them off”.
I believe Ron Washington coaches the infielders (he has for the better part of 40 years that I’m aware of). He can work with Grissom better than anyone the Braves have in their minor league system (and arguably better than any coach that any major league franchise has).
PREDICTIONS:
Aaron Judge: 7 years/$300M- heavily front loaded w/ a hefty signing bonus of like $25M and a hefty buyout of like $10M on an 8th year option of some kind: (probably the Yankees but meh?)
Trea Turner- 7 years/$231M and probably the Dodgers
Nolan Arenado- 5 years/$175M and probably the Cardinals- a straight up contract of $35M annually over 5 seasons.
Carlos Correa- probably stays with the Twins- realizes it’s nicer to be an appreciated and well paid but not-so-scrutinized star player on a mid-market club: 1 year/$35.1M or 2 years/$70.2M or 7 years/$225M or so w/ 5 years/$153.8M tacked on- Either does not opt out and plays for $35.1M in 2023 and 2024 OR restructures the deal for more years at a lower AAV but more overall guaranteed money.
Bogaerts- No idea where he lands, but I think it’ll be for about 5 years/$150M, give or take.
DeGrom- I think he stays with the Mets for a Scherzer-like deal and gets a slight inflation adjusted bump in pay compared to Scherzer with some kind of fail safe stuff written into the contract so that he’s paid fairly but his injury history and potential is acknowledged. So like, potentially 3 years/$150M but only 3 years/$90M guaranteed or something.
Swanson- 6 years/$132M Stays with the Braves- they seem to convince their core guys to stick around on below market deals that are still very healthy salaries.
Rodon- 5 years/$140M and will probably stay with the Giants. Becomes the new Johnny Cueto for them, takes a slightly below market AAV for that extra year.
Verlander- I honestly think he’s gonna get a 2 years/$100M guarantee and he will get it from the Astros….or the Mets…or the Rangers…but someone will give him that deal. Maybe it’ll be 2 years/$90M w/ a $10M buyout on a $45M option or something, but he will get $100M guaranteed over 2 years.
Edwin Diaz- 5 years/$100M from someone- whether it’s straight up, or it’s $95M with a $5M buyout on an option, I dunno, but I think he’ll get a 5 year/$100M guarantee from whomever signs him.
I think Benintendi signs for a ton of years and a lower-ish AAV or surprises us all and gets a lower AAV and less years than one might think. I think Eovaldi gets a 1 year prove it deal or a 2 year market value deal. No strong opinions on the rest of them.
Swanson’s a 2 WAR player having a lucky season at age 28. The chance the Braves sign him for even 5/100m is exactly zero.
NOT signing a guy like him for 6/132m is exactly why the Braves are where they are: namely modest payrolls, typically, while winning the NL East if not the World Series.
Baty reminds me of cross between John Olerud and Austin Riley. He has the talent to be an impact, middle of the order bat and solid defender with plus arm.