Much of the focus in Wrigleyville over the next two weeks will be on Willson Contreras. That’s perfectly understandable. A career-long member of the organization, Contreras is set to don a Cubs uniform in the All-Star Game for the third (and very likely final) time tomorrow. He’s both one of the few remaining ties to the 2016 World Series-winning team and perhaps the game’s top trade candidate. An impending free agent whom the club hasn’t seemingly made much effort to sign long-term, he’s a virtual lock to be dealt by the August 2 deadline.
Contreras’ trade candidacy is so self-explanatory it has been discussed extensively for months. Yet the future of the other Cub headed to the Midsummer Classic will be equally fascinating to follow. Ian Happ is a first-time All-Star, a deserved National League representative amidst another productive year at the plate. The switch-hitting Happ carries a .274/.364/.443 line across 368 plate appearances through the season’s unofficial first half. By measure of wRC+, that production is 25 percentage points better than league average.
Happ had fared similarly in two of the past three years. He posted respective wRC+ marks of 126 and 130 in 2019 and 2020. Both those showings were in limited playing time, however. Happ spent a good chunk of the former season in Triple-A, where his .242/.364/.432 line was less impressive than his .264/.333/.564 work in a smaller MLB sample. The 2020 campaign, of course, was truncated because of the pandemic. Last year was Happ’s first full season of major league action since 2018, and he put together a .226/.323/.434 showing that was only marginally above average.
With Happ having held onto his 2019-20 rate production over a three-plus month stretch, one could argue he’s already had a career year in 2022. Perhaps even more importantly, the 27-year-old (28 next month) is getting to those results in a manner that appears more sustainable than he has in prior seasons. Happ’s game has featured quite a bit of swing-and-miss throughout his big league career, but he’s made notable strides in that department. He’s made contact on just under 76% of his swings this year. That’s four points higher than he has in any previous season, and he’s pulled just shy of league average in that regard. He’s paired that with a slightly more aggressive approach, particularly with regards to attacking pitches inside the strike zone.
Even slightly below-average bat-to-ball skills is workable for Happ, who does most other things well offensively. He’s always had solid strike zone awareness, and this season’s 11.4% walk rate is right in line with his career mark. That patience has consistently been paired with above-average power, with Happ posting higher than typical rates of hard contact in each of his six big league seasons. Traditionally, Happ’s power impact has skewed towards his time in the left-handed batters box. That hasn’t been the case this year, though, as he’s collected eight extra-base hits in 85 plate appearances as a right-handed hitter.
A switch-hitter with above-average patience and power and serviceable contact skills, Happ’s a well-rounded and valuable offensive player. He’s not elite, but he’s certainly a good hitter who’d upgrade plenty of teams’ corner outfield situations. Happ is miscast in center field (and on the infield, where he’d logged sporadic innings earlier in his career), but he’s a solid defender in left field. Statcast has pegged him as roughly league average at that position, while Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating have him a touch above. Left field is far down the defensive spectrum, but Happ’s work at the plate has been plenty sufficient to clear the loftier bar necessary to be a productive regular.
There haven’t yet been substantive reports linking any contenders with Happ, but it stands to reason there have already been clubs in touch with president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and his front office. The Red Sox, Braves, Twins and Dodgers are among the contenders that have gotten average or worse production out of their left fielders this year. Minnesota and L.A. are currently without their top preferred options (Trevor Larnach and Chris Taylor, respectively) due to injury.
The Blue Jays, Yankees and Padres have gotten solid work from left field but are looking for ways to upgrade their outfields generally. That’s perhaps also true of the Rays, who have Randy Arozarena in left but are expected to be without each of Kevin Kiermaier, Manuel Margot and Harold Ramírez for the foreseeable future. Other clubs like the Mariners, Mets and Guardians have solutions in left field but could look into adding another productive bat with question marks at designated hitter. That’s a broad range of possibilities Hoyer and his staff should be able to explore if they make Happ available this summer.
How motivated will the Cubs be to deal him? Trading Happ isn’t as urgent as moving Contreras will be. The latter is headed to the open market two months from now, while Happ is controllable for 2023 via arbitration. He’s playing this season on a $6.85MM salary, around $2.7MM of which will remain owed after the deadline. He’s sure to land a decent arbitration raise — likely putting next year’s tally in the $10-12MM range — before his first trip to the open market. That’s not an insignificant sum, but it’s still a strong bargain for a player of his caliber. Accordingly, the return package the Cubs receive for Happ is unlikely to ever be better than it will be this summer, when the club can market two playoff pushes to contenders. He’s young enough the Cubs could kick around extension possibilities, but there’s been no public indication that’s on the table.
One way or another, it feels like the appropriate time for the front office to pick a longer-term course of action regarding the former ninth overall pick. Merely holding onto Happ via arbitration doesn’t align with the club’s contention window. The Cubs may not intend to punt on 2023 entirely, but it’s hard to see a path to competitiveness. The team is 22 games under .500 at this season’s All-Star Break, and there are enough holes both at the bottom of the lineup and in the starting rotation they’re unlikely to be completely plugged in one offseason. 2024 feels like the more realistic target for a return to respectability, and Happ is slated to be a free agent by that point.
Unless the Cubs are particularly confident about the chances of getting a long-term deal done with his representatives at WME Baseball, the front office should actively explore the trade market over the next couple weeks. The possibility of dealing him next offseason means Hoyer and his staff don’t need to simply accept the top offer presented, but this feels like the best opportunity for the Cubs to land a marquee return. Happ’s remaining window of club control probably makes him a more valuable trade asset than Contreras, so dealing him may be the organization’s clearest path towards adding another Top 100-caliber prospect to the farm system.
Seeing Contreras and Happ depart in rapid succession would be disappointing to some members of the fanbase, but the organization’s massive sell-off last summer firmly signified this is the direction they’re headed. Plenty more change will be afoot in the next couple weeks, with a host of relievers and the franchise catcher all but assured to be moved. Happ very well might join that group in departing the North Side for a near-term contender as the Cubs continue to restock the minor leagues as part of an ongoing retooling effort.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Captain Judge99
My NL team is the Cubs. How about Ian Happ to the Yankees for Domingo German, Randy Vasquez and Miguel Andujar ( who would absolutely rake at Wrigley)
Holy Cow!
First, take out Andujar. That’s not funny anymore. Then get serious with two of either Waldichuk, Wells, or Wesneski plus Vasquez. Then you can fly the W.
Captain Judge99
@DonnyElementary- now we’re going to continue to judge Andujar who doesn’t even play? He would hit a ton of homers at Wrigley. German is like a start away from coming back, and Vasquez is perfect. Not screwing the Cubs at all here. I wouldn’t do that. I know what they need. Waldichuk, Wesneski or Wells is way too much for Mr. Happ.
myaccount2
I think the Cubs are going to want prospects or players with little to no service time in return. I don’t think the Stroman signing was really an intent to compete.
Capi
It’s easier to hit HR’s at Yankees Stadium than Wrigley Field… You know this, right?
Captain Judge99
@Capi- you now that Andujar hasn’t been playing any games at Yankee Stadium, right? He needs a change of scenery, being traded to the Cubs gives him an opportunity to play everyday. He can play third base, left field, lst base, and dh. Cub’s fans would love him.
Dunk Dunkington
There are plenty of times that it is close to impossible to hit one out at Wrigley.
Capi
The Cubs won’t trade Happ for a reclamation project like Andujar.
He’s worth nothing but a player to be named later.
Captain Judge99
@Capi- your more of a reclamation project then Andujar. Miggy can hit 25-30 homeruns playing at Wrigley Field playing everyday. He just needs the at bats. Low risk/High reward. Definitely not a bad throw-in any trade.
jgray6000
If Andujar is so fantastic and can play the same position, why do the Yankees need Happ?
Madilynn Renata
hi
Madilynn Renata
hallo
Gator50
On average, at least 10 major league ballparks yield more HRs than Wrigley. Even in 2016, it only ranked 10th, and that team hit plenty of HRs.
TexasLeaguer
@Donnyelementary
Happ to Rays for Glasnow is interesting
Holy Cow!
That’s interesting but only one year before he hits free agency.
Randomuser4567
Not really…and as mentioned in the article, 2024 is probably earliest for realistic competitiveness. Glasnow is a bad fit
Tom Emansk1
Your all star for my junk, who says no?
Captain Judge99
@Tom Emansk1- junk? Have you looked at the Yankee’s prospects lately? Let’s do Happ a big favor by trading him to the Yankees. The Cubs are going to need another 3 years to turn this all around, unfortunately. Hopefully, Joe Girardi will be managing the Cubs by then.
Manfred’s playing with the balls
Why would the cubs take guys with years of service time who won’t be around when they’re competitive? Yankee fans are getting more delusional everyday
Tom Emansk1
The last time German wasn’t injured or just bad was 2017–no value. Andujar is a fringy utility player who has never put up a 1 win season–minimal value. Vasquez is a legitimate prospect but not a particularly high level one. In totality, yeah, junk. Happ is controllable for another year and is likely gonna require a back end top 100 type or multiple younger higher risk type prospects. 2 AAAA players and a mediocre prospect isn’t close.
Captain Judge99
@forwhomartbelltolled- those players mentioned all have more years of control then Mr. Happ. I’m a Cubs fan also. I watch them everyday. What are you really expecting for Happ? Soto?
mlb1225
You’re not getting a guy who has had an above league average wRC+ every year of his career .808 OPS, .351 wOBA, and 126 wRC+ with positive defensive marks in the outfield this year with another full year of control remaining for a package where two of the three main pieces are a 29-year-old Domingo German who hasn’t pitched a single game this year because he’s on the 60-day IL and only controlled through 2024 and Miguel Andujar who has played a combined 92 games since 2019. It’s going to take at least one top 10 prospect from the Yankees’ system to get Happ.
Captain Judge99
mlb1225- with all that said, keep in mind Happ “is a rental” so no pick in the Yankees top 10 prospects. Maybe 12-20. German is a good pitcher that’s all ready. And Andy can’t be a free agent till 2024. Your really overrating Happy I see him play everyday. This trade would definitely help the Cubs.
mlb1225
He isn’t a rental. He has control another full year after 2022. He’s having the best season of his career. Even if German is ‘ready’ as you proclaim, he still is a back-of-the-rotation arm with only one more year of control left than Happ. Andujar, even if he isn’t a FA until 2024, why would the Cubs have interest? They’re looking for long term assets, not guys who will hit free agency after two years, especially ones who have barely played in the past 4 seasons. It’s going to take a prospect in the 8-10 range as a headliner in any deal involving Happ. It might not take Dominguez, Volpe, or Peraza, but it’ll definitley take someone like Yoendrys Gomez as a headliner.
ChiSoxCity
Yankees fans see these awful one-sided trades (my junk for your stars) as normal, because that’s usually how trades go down anytime the Yankees are involved. It’s an unwritten rule that you gotta bend over and take it whenever you agree to trades with them.
Captain Judge99
@ChiSoxCity- your delusional liking the White Sox alone. It’s just like being a Mets fan in NY. I get it. Keep in mind I like the Cubs not the White Sox.
rememberthecoop
They basically print money at Wrigley Field. A team with such vast resources like the Cubs should never have to rebuild. Oh and meanwhile, ticket prices are the highest in MLB. “Stupid Cubs fans,” says Tom Ricketts, puffing on a Cuban while Jed Hoyer rubs his feet. “They will fill my park whether we win or lose! AHAHAHAHA!!”
Captain Judge99
@rememberthecoop- the Knicks in the NBA, have been doing the same to their loyal fans for almost 30 years now. I love my Cubbie faithful.
Samuel
Teams no longer can buy a WS appearance. They have to have a young core in place before going out and spending big money. That’s why the draft penalties for going over the luxury tax for more that a season or so were put in place. They can literally cripple a franchise for years (and if some such as Mr. Cohen ignores it, rest assured there will be pressure by the majority of the other owners to make the penalties even more severe).
In particular, they need to not only have good pitching, they need to have a coaching staff that can work and develop pitchers at the ML level during the season. I see the Cubs are trying to get there, but they have a long way to go.
TexasLeaguer
@Samuel
Cubs are definitely getting there. They e really overhauled their infrastructure in the minors and are one of the top organizations utilizing pitch labs. Steele and Thompson have taken big steps forward this year. Kilian should make strides next year. A healthy Alzolay and you’ve got 4 home grown starters. Wicks and Herz knocking on door as well.
Dunk Dunkington
Cubs added Cade Horton and Jackson Ferris in the Draft. There is also DJ Herz is looking really good in the minors too.
rondon
They’re seriously focusing on pitching now. So far they’ve taken pitchers in 9 of the first 10 rounds of this year’s draft.
Samuel
TexasLeaguer:
Thanks! I’ll keep an eye on them.
Can’t win without pitching. Deep depth. Get that and defense up the middle (a few of whom can hit) including a Catcher that can call a game and handle a staff, fill in at the corners, have the players under control for 2-4 years, and waaaalaaaa.
Catuli Carl
@TexasLeaguer Are you affiliated with the Texas Leaguer Brewery in Stafford, TX by chance?
Sideline Redwine
How dare fans stay loyal when their team sucks!
(Psst: that makes you a true fan)
Mikel Grady
Love the last game before all star break Cubs 3rd worst record in baseball playing Mets and wrigley is packed and fans going crazy in extra innings. Best fans in all of sports
hiflew
There should be a drinking game where you take a shot every time a sportswriter uses the word “truncated” to describe the 2020 season. On second thought, too many people would die.
Honestly, I don’t think I saw that word used more than a dozen times in my life before 2020. Now it shows up every time the 2020 season is mentioned.
Lloyd Emerson
Abridged too far.
AverageCommenter
Unprecedented. Need I say more?
rondon
I’m partial to partial.
TexasLeaguer
Package him and send him to DC for Soto and Corbin. Cubs can take on the money now and give them MLB ready players.
joev93
What good will that do for the Nationals considering Contreras is a free agent after this year?
TexasLeaguer
@joev93 It would give the Nats an all star they can flip for even more prospects next year. Or use the Soto savings to help sign Happ and other MLB talent they’d send over.
Captain Judge99
If the Yankees don’t trade for Soto, he would be perfect for the Cubs. He’d hit 40 homers at Wrigley easily.
TexasLeaguer
Yanks make the most sense unless the Nats are dead set on getting MLB ready guys and dumping Corbin’s contract. If yanks get Soto, there’s no chance they can keep Judge
Dustyslambchops23
They can keep him but they will be more comfortable to let him walk. Essentially do what the dodgers did with Seager. It allows you to set your limits with Judge and if he wants more he has to go elsewhere.
I’m a jays fan and I’m terrified of seeing Soto and that short porch for the next 10 years. Yanks make the most sense for every possible reason and have the right pieces to move
earmbrister
The NYY prospects are overrated. The stats don’t lie.
rocky7
Whose stats don’t lie…yours? Another expert heard from regarding the Yankees.
Captain Judge99
@earmbrister- NYY prospects are overrated? Please explain how. What stats don’t lie? That makes zero sense.
Dustin 615
They need to keep Contreras and give him a big contract. Bad move on trading him.
TexasLeaguer
I don’t get it either. Makes me think the cubs don’t like how he works with pitchers
Randomuser4567
Or he doesn’t match their window. He’s already 30. Giving a big contract to a 30 year old catcher has proven to be stupid over and over
Samuel
The word I heard that’s going around outside of Chicago is that they want to do a Chapman – get a few good young players; Contreras comes back in 2023 and signs a long term contract. He may have let the cat out of the bag with his public statements.
revolver
Or they can trade him for a nice return then re-sign him in the off-season They are positioned to over pay for him as a free agent if they wish. Get your cake and eat it too.
Captain Judge99
@Dustin 615- the Cubs are going to trade Contreras? Are you really sure?
dshires4
I don’t see a spot on the Mariners with Haniger, Lewis, and Carlos Santana sucking up the DH at bats for the foreseeable future.
signenderinciarte
Cool
Bill M
“Other clubs like the Mariners, Mets and Guardians have solutions in left field but could look into adding another productive bat with question marks at designated hitter.”
Happ would be a HUGE upgrade over Davis for the Mets as DH for the stretch run.
cadagan
Not sold on happ quite as much as many. For his career, he’s mostly the left handed part of a platoon. Including now. This year, he has much more runs and rbi counting stats. Explaining the all star selection. I assume he’s hitting higher in the order. He has value for sure. I think the average fan values 90 run, 90 rbi season more than I do. It could be an outlier for the counting stats.
flamingbagofpoop
He’s on pace for about 3.5-4 fWAR / 600pa, so it’s not just counting stats that are better this year. He’s actually been better as a RHH this year than LHH (granted that’s a sss with only 85 PAAs).
diehardcubbie
Runs and RBI are a horrible way to evaluate a player. He can’t help if his team can’t knock him in when he is in scoring position. I will say I have been skeptical of Happ for years and wanted him dealt pretty much since 2019. However, he has proven me wrong. He had a tremendous second half last season and has been a great player this year. He has been extremely productive from the right side of the plate and has cut down on a lot of swing and miss (especially at pitches in the zone). I will say his approach has cost him a little power, but if playing everyday he still has a good chance of being a 20-25 HR guy with this approach.
ChrisEnvy76
He’s a switch hitter. So, he’s not part of any kind of platoon. He’s been slowly putting together a more consistent approach. He’s finally put it all together and they’d be smart to trade him as they have a gluttony of talent coming up through the minors in the outfield. They should be getting an excellent return.
drasco036
Please tell me all about the “gluttony” of talent the Cubs have that is anywhere near ML ready…
diehardcubbie
Near ML ready they just have one, Davis. However he is not wrong in saying they have a lot of great OF prospects moving up the ranks. The Cubs have 3 OF in the top 100 prospects of all of baseball. Davis, Crow-Armstrong, Alcantara all crack the top 100. Owen Cassie is right outside of the top 100. Canario and Pinango aren’t currently in that realm but are moving up the system as well and look like good prospects. The Cubs have a very deep OF prospect list.
drasco036
Davis had a 40% strike out rate in AA last season. He isn’t “near” or close to being mlb ready, especially not after missing nearly all this year.
Cubs are banking on guys in single A right now, they are not close, two years is an extremely aggressive and optimistic outlook, closer to 3-4 years. PCA, Alcantara and Cassie are what? 19 and 20 years old….
Davis, Canario and Velazquez make Wisdom look like a contact hitter with their 40% k rates in the minors.
diehardcubbie
@drascoo36 you need to double check your stats. He had a 30% K rate last season at AA where he was one of the youngest players at that level. Overall last year across 3 levels he had a K rate of 28%. Average K rate in the minors last year was 24.8%. So he wasn’t far off the average and was much younger than most of the talent he was facing. He will make adjustments and probably be at league average k rate. His wRC+ was above 130 at AA last season, and he had an OBP of .375 across all three levels. Despite a slightly above average k rate he had a fantastic season at just 21 years old last year.
Notice how I said in the above comment Davis was the only close one, and he will be up by mid season next year (barring any injuries). PCA, Alcantara, and Cassie are 2 years at least away. Doesn’t mean my statement isn’t true. We have a lot of talent in the OF.
TexasLeaguer
@drasco036
If 2/4 of Davis, PCA, Alcantara, Caissie end up All stars, the cubs are looking fantastic. Davis is still so raw but he’s made adjustments at every promotion – a sign of a good player. Cubs have the deepest farm system and have had 3 players jump into top 100 this year. Expectations are, another 2-3 will jump into top 100. Their pitching has taken a huge leap forward this year. Cubs are racking up trade chips. With a payroll that historically sits in top 5, the front office will spend when prospects get closer.
ChrisEnvy76
This is such a ridiculous post. Drascoo, a gluttony of talent doesn’t mean that they are near MLB ready and like this year, next year probably won’t matter as much as 2 years from now for the Cubs. PCA, Alcantara, Pinango, Caissie, and more and then Morel is already up. 2/3 of the outfield is made up of guys just called up… Davis would have been up if not for his back issue. Do you know how many actual at-bats Davis has had? There is a reason he was so high up on prospect lists. I’d be rolling my eyes if we were talking in real life and laughing at your uneducated comments.
Voice of Reason
The Cubs will trade Happ and they’ll get a better return for him than Contreras.
drasco036
I actually don’t see the Cubs dealing Happ simply because the Cubs will hedge on talent and other teams will be weary of his track record of inconsistency. If I was the Cubs gm, I’m not dealing Happ for anything short of a top prospect in the 50 up range plus another guy.
Also, if I were the Cubs, I would look to extend Happ to a 5 year 70 million extension (10 million salary for his last arbitration year then 4/60). If he doesn’t agree, then deal him in the off-season.
I personally think the best of Happ is yet to come and I believe over those 5 years he will play like an upper tier player.
mil
Unfortunately Happ is solid but not spectacular. He isnt going to bring a big return. I dont see the Cubs dealing him for a couple low level prospects.
ChiSoxCity
The Cubs screw themselves by waiting too long to trade away star players. They knew they weren’t going to re-sign him 2-3 years ago.
They have one of the worst rosters in the MLB, right? Why not commit fully to the rebuild and maximize your return by trading core guys while they still have time left on their contracts? What they did was stupid, and their front office even admitted this recently (that they made a mistake).
diehardcubbie
The issue with trying to trade him 2-3 years ago is he he was aweful in 2018 which made him start in half the next season in AAA. 2020 Cubs played above what was expected and they weren’t sellers. He was so bad the first half of last season that he looked untradeable. He didn’t have value until this season mainly because of how he has performed this season. I do agree they held on to most of the core too long and Didn’t maximize their trade value. They should have done what the Nats are doing now with Soto (Not that any of those guys are on the same level as Soto) and traded after 2019 and got MLB or close to it talent like the Nats are attempting. They could have got an absolute Haul for Javy after the 2019 season after his 2018 MVP runner up and another spectacular season in 2019. Same with Bryant. They really missed the boat.
drasco036
Win a playoff series this decade and then talk about how other teams should run their organization.
TexasLeaguer
@ChiSoxCity
Stupid? Rizzo trade netted a 19 year old who is already a top 100 prospect. Baez trade netted them a top 50 prospect. Bryant trade netted them a young pitcher who is fringe top 100. Fact is, every cubs player who was traded turned down extensions that were ultimately more money than what they settled for in free agency. Cubs were a playoff team in 2020 and came out hot last year only to capsize in 5-6 weeks leading up to all star break. Cubs gave fans every opportunity to win with that core and received fantastic returns when it came time to trade.
forklift1
Maybe the Sox should start selling their guys off now! Clearly this sack of South side crap is going nowhere
forklift1
What about that time Kingman got picked off to end the game in Cincinnati!!!