The Reds are set to welcome right-hander Tyler Mahle back from the injured list this weekend, as they announced to reporters Wednesday that he’s in line to start Sunday’s game against the visiting Cardinals (Twitter link via Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer). The team also reinstated right-hander Dauri Moreta from the Covid-related injured list and returned righty Ryan Hendrix to Triple-A Louisville.
Mahle, one of the most notable trade candidates on the summer market, hit the injured list with what was deemed a minor shoulder strain earlier this month. The 27-year-old righty said shortly thereafter that he planned to return quickly after the All-Star break, and that will indeed be the case. A Sunday return will give Mahle enough time to make two starts before the Aug. 2 trade deadline, so scouts from opposing clubs will have multiple opportunities to evaluate him on the heels of his recent shoulder issue.
Prior to landing on the injured list, Mahle was trending upward in terms of his performance. The former seventh-rounder got out to a brutal start this season but turned a corner in late May and stringing together a 2.58 ERA over a stretch of seven outings. Dating back to May 1, Mahle has a 3.86 ERA with strikeout and walk rates that fall in line with the standards he set when establishing himself as at least a quality mid-rotation hurler from 2020-21.
While Mahle doesn’t draw as much fanfare as rotation-mate Luis Castillo, he’s quietly built a nice track record at the big league level. Even including a pair of his worst-ever starts earlier this season (combined 15 runs allowed in 7 2/3 frames), Mahle has a 3.94 ERA in 320 innings dating back to the 2020 season. He’s punched out 27.5% of his opponents against an 8.9% walk rate along the way, sitting at 94 mph with his heater and brandishing a splitter and slider that have both graded out as above-average pitches at times. Lately, he’s gravitated more toward the low-spinning splitter — particularly against lefties.
It’s hard not to wonder how Mahle might fare with another club, as his hitter-friendly home park has been a thorn in his side even as he’s found success over the past three seasons. Mahle has a bloated 4.90 ERA and has yielded 1.71 homers per nine innings pitched at Great American Ball Park dating back to 2020. During that same three-year stretch, he’s notched an excellent 2.93 ERA on the road, while yielding an average of just 0.52 homers per nine innings.
Like Castillo, Mahle is controlled not only for the 2022 campaign but also through the 2023 season via arbitration. He’s being paid $5.2MM for the current season and will earn a raise on top of that figure for the 2023 season before hitting the free-agent market in advance of his age-29 campaign.
Good glad to see him back now montas and mahle are both “healthy”
Just in time to be traded to Philly…
…..for painter. U can have drury too. Just make sure painter is working n the deal
I’d rather give up Abel than Painter, but who knows. Dombro is in win-now mode. Could see another deal for a CF involving Rojas.
They at least have Castillo as the “golden egg” if doubts about Mahle prevent getting them 1 decent (not elite) headliner prospect in any sort of trade.
You’re not getting an above average pitcher (Mahle) without giving up an elite prospect in return. Proven vs prospect. For Castillo, one of the best dozen pitchers in baseball, make that 2 elite prospects.
It would require a lot of medical input, but I like this guy for the RS. He’s almost at Castillo’s level, but should be a lot cheaper.
He won’t be. But Red Sox should be all over both of them. Mayer can headline Castillo and bello for mahle.
Same package could get soto too, but he can’t pitch
Same package could get Soto? Pass me what you’re smoking.
A package of Mayer, Bello, Yorke and another young pitcher like Murphy could be very intriguing for the Nats. They may want ask for Casas over Yorke and maybe Mata over Murphy but there’s enough talent there to get a deal done for Soto. I just don’t think Boston has any interest in doing that. They seem to be on a path to build this team through the minors and this package would completely wreck those plans.
IMO, Casas should be the only untouchable prospect in a Soto trade. Give them Mayer, Yorke, Bello, Mata, Groome, Dalbec, and a high-A lottery ticket, and I think that gets it done.
Mayer is on a very short list of headliners I’d consider for soto. His production as a pro has been outstanding. Plus he’s 19 which gives nats time to build around him which is a big advantage vs abrams or whoever sea would offer who’d be already in majors or near enough.
Bello has been outstanding in his own right too. 118ks in 88 innings.
Those 2, as top 2 pieces in deal, surely get the conversation following !
I’m not sure Boston is going to be buyers at the deadline. They are trending in the wrong direction and still have a tough stretch of games against better teams prior to the deadline. I actually see Boston selling off a few pieces and hoping they left enough on the roster to get the 3rd wild card. Losing Sale was the final nail in the coffin if you ask me. They should keep Bello up and let him take his licks so he knows what he needs to work on over the offseason. This Sox team is about to get younger with some exciting prospects; hopefully Chaim can find 1 or 2 more youngsters at the trade deadline who can be a part of the next great Sox team (2024-2025).
@Joe
Have you watched him pitch very often? I would advise buyer beware on Mahle. The stuff is fine and the numbers look good considering the home park, but I still wouldn’t want to see him in the AL East. He throws way too many pitches to ever work deep into games. He falls behind too many hitters and his above average stuff might not save him against a good line up. His approach to pitching is hard to watch.
His approach to pitching is hard to watch? No, no it is not.
119 ERA+ over the past 3 seasons, only 27 years old, making peanuts, cost controlled through 2023.
CY Young candidate if he were in the NL West and not pitching half his games at GABP.
He does throw too many pitches, and gets behind in the count to hitters… at GABP. That’s because he knows he has to be careful in that launching pad so he starts nibbling. On the road he’s a completely different pitcher who has the stuff to go right at hitters and he does…
This is a fair criticism of Mahle, This would matter more 10 – 20 years ago before the type of bullpen use we’re seeing in today’s game. This is a buyers market and I’m certain that enough teams will be in the bidding that the Reds will get a strong package if they decide to trade him.
So basically they shut him down to limit the innings and make him a more attractive trade piece
I believe he’d thrive in a ballpark that holds fly balls in better than Cincy. Baltimore has redone Camden and added the Great Wall of LF….that would be an interesting fit and probably reasonably affordable without losing any of the top 3 to 5 prospects in that system.
Similar to the Sox, Baltimore seems content to build their next competitive team through the minors. While they have had a great season to date, I don’t think they’re quite ready to trade prospects for established veterans. They probably need one more year before they start doing that. I see Baltimore standing pat at the deadline and hoping their youngsters can get hot enough to earn the 3rd wild card. Maybe they add a 5th starter or marginal bullpen arm but I don’t see them playing at the top of the market this trade deadline anyways. Mahle is probably the 3rd best starter available at the deadline so he’s going to cost more than people expect if he can show he is fully healthy over his next couple of starts.
The AL East has a legitimate shot of all 5 teams finishing .500 or better this year. Has this ever happened before?
Unlikely. There are so many inter division games down the stretch, the likely scenario is two of the Sox, rays, jays and O’s fall back.
I’m looking forward to the more balanced schedule next year. CLE and SEA are quality ballclubs, but they have a schedule advantage over the AL East teams. I am glad MLB balanced things out a bit more.
What does Votto want more? To finish his career as a Red or to play in the postseason. Wonder if taking Votto’s contract could be part of a Castillo or a Mahle deal to lessen the prospect package in an exchange.
Finish his career a Red.
With the exception of last year his career has been over for a while
Votto had a damn good season last year…ridiculous.
He wants to finish his career as a red and make the HOF.
That’d be a horrible trade for the Reds. They don’t need to eat more salaries – Lettuce Castellini can afford their payroll. They need premium prospects, and now!
“Mahle said shortly thereafter that he planned to return quickly after the All-Star break”
Translation: Get me the hell out of Cinci. (I need to show Im healthy so I can get traded before Aug 3rd).
Lol the nats making Soto fly commercial to the all star game is so petty.
LOL! He will earn $17,100,000 this year. Maybe we should set up a Gofundagazillionaire page for him.
Mahle has given up 46 earned runs this year in 17 starts giving him a 4.48 ERA on the year.
(1/3rd of those earned runs came in 2 starts that combined for 7 and 2/3rds IP – 3.30 ERA in the other 15 starts)
(over 1/2 of his earned runs came in just 5 starts – has a 2.40 ERA in the other 12 starts).
Depending on what you story you want to buy into, I take the approach that the work stoppage set him back. After his first three starts, he had an ERA/FIP of 3.95/3.79, and a K9/BB9 of 9.72/3.39. That’s close enough to his 2020-21 production to make me think that’s exactly what he will provide.