Martin Perez emphatically told reporters late last month that he hoped to stay with the Rangers long-term (link via Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News), and general manager Chris Young told Grant and others yesterday that the team is indeed open to the possibility of signing the veteran lefty to an extension (Twitter link).
Perez, who returned for a second stint with the Rangers on a one-year, $4MM deal over the winter, appears to be in the midst of the breakout season so many thought possible during his minor league days, when he was regarded as one of the top 30 prospects in all of baseball. It’s coming well later than anyone expected, at 31 years of age, but Perez has pitched to a brilliant 2.68 ERA with a career-high 20.7% strikeout rate, a career-low 6.6% walk rate and a 51.9% ground-ball rate that represents his highest mark since 2016.
Now an 11-year Major League veteran, Perez is throwing fewer four-seam fastballs than at any point in his career (6.6%) and has ramped up the usage of his sinker (37%) and changeup (27.7%) in its place. That changeup usage rate is a career-high, and his sinker usage is at its highest point since 2018. He’s also tamped down the use of the cutter he added with the Twins in 2019 but is still using it frequently as a third offering. His curveball, like his four-seamer, only makes a handful of appearances per start (5.1%). Perez has experimented with many pitch mixes throughout his career, but this is the most aggressively he’s ever leaned on the sinker/cutter/changeup trio, and the results are impressive.
The extent to which the Rangers are willing to spend to keep Perez beyond the current season isn’t yet known, but Perez made his feelings crystal clear in that late June interview, telling the Texas beat: “I want to be here and stay here, 100 percent. No — make it 300 percent.”
As things currently stand, righties Jon Gray and Dane Dunning are the only locks for the rotation beyond the current season. Texas is hopeful that touted prospects Jack Leiter and Cole Winn will emerge as high-end options sooner than later, but both have struggled considerably in the minors this season (Leiter in Double-A, Winn in Triple-A). Even if that pair were to right the ship and break through to the big leagues sometime in 2023, there’d still be room for a solid veteran of Perez’s caliber — and that’s obviously a best-case scenario that’s far from certain, given the volatility of pitching prospects.
Whether it’s a Perez extension or a trade that brings some controllable talent to Globe Life Field, Young expressed yesterday that the Rangers may not wait until the offseason to help solidify the 2023 rotation (Twitter link via The Athletic’s Levi Weaver). “I think that as we are building this and evaluating where we currently sit in the standings, and where we want to be this time next year, finding pieces both for the short term and potential fits beyond 2022 is how we’re approaching it,” Young said of the Rangers’ approach to the trade deadline.
The Rangers are currently five games below .500 at 41-46, which takes them completely out of the running in the American League West, where they trail the Astros by a massive 16.5-game deficit. They’re only four and a half back in the race for the American League’s third Wild Card spot, however, and Texas has played considerably better since a terrible start to the season. Following a 2-9 start to the season, they’ve gone 39-37 with a +25 run differential in that span.
We love Mar-teeeen in Texas! Hope he gets a well deserved 3-4 year extension.
Amazing the results this year compared to last, he was a hot mess with Boston
That’s not entirely fair. Perez was never meant to be a top of the rotation starter but gave them solid innings in the first half of the season and pitched to an ERA under 5.00. The second half he struggled but i wonder if that had anything to do with the ban on sticky substances that a lot of pitchers had to adjust to.
As far as an extension goes, maybe two years with an option but Perez is probably not a guy you want to guarantee a long term deal to, especially in the middle of what is likely a career year
Under 5.00 is not good enough. He was inconsistent in Boston. He does have decent stuff but I wonder if an extension is agreed to, will the Rangers have remorse? This reminds me of Boston and Barnes all over again.
Perez’s numbers with Boston are a bit misleading, as he pitched more than a few excellent games for Boston. His biggest issue was when he didn’t have it on a particular day, he got tattooed for 6-8 ERs over a 4-5 inning effort and that really inflated his ERA, WHIP, etc. It has always been a consistency issue with Perez and it’s great to see him finally be more consistent in Texas. With that said, I do question if this year is more of an outlier rather than a newfound maturity in his command/consistency. Texas should be careful on how many years they extend him for and at what AAV they choose do so at. It would not surprise many if he ‘regressed’ back to his career performance levels next season. In fact it will be more surprising if he continues his 2022 success next year vs. falling back to career-to-date levels. I’m really happy for Perez as he’s a likable guy/teammate but buyer beware!
Fully agree.
Dorothy, your comment reminds me of Mark Melancon when he pitched for Boston in 2012. He got off to a God-awful start, mainly because of a couple of horrendous outings. But if you subtracted the first 5 or 6 appearances of his that year, he actually settled down and did a decent job although his overall ERA wouldn’t reflect it.
Showing even more the rangers wont be sellers
I believe they’ll look to send out players like Kole Calhoun and move on from bench bats like Culberson to open up playing time for the kids like Zeke Duran. That starting rotation is a hot mess, so extending Perez makes a lot more sense then trading him for a prospect or two. I imagine they will look to fortify the pitching staff more in the offseason. Would love a reunion with Lance Lynn.
We’ll see. Rangers are a creak team. There’s something about that stadium…
I don’t see a reunion with Lynn Sox wont be sellers
Don’t believe just watch (15 days)
Rangers don’t need pitching, they need bats. Gallo reunion for them.
Everything you said is wrong
You like boys
And for the record the rangers not being sellers is a mistake
I still don’t trust him as far as I can throw him. I still think he’s a 4.25 ERA pitcher at best but am glad he FINALLY has found success and have enjoyed the run he’s been on.
With league average around at 3.99 this year and 4.26 last year being a 4.25 era pitcher just isn’t all that bad anymore. He’s not very good either though.
I think 2/20 with a team option of 1/8 makes sense. Go ahead and make the trade with Miami for Lopez and a starting group for 23 of Gray, Lopez, Syndergaard, Perez, and Lester, Winn or White would be a good start.
Why do a lot of people feel like Miami is so willing to deal Pablo Lopez? Even with their young pitchers coming up to the majors, Lopez is an extremely valuable member of the Marlins pitching staff and I don’t see them being motivated to move him unless they receive an offer they can’t refuse. He doesn’t become a free agent until 2025 either so they can control him at a reasonable cost over the next 1-2 seasons. I could see them moving him in 2024 (his last year of arbitration), but it feels too soon to make a deal for him now unless they are blown away with the return.
I agree completely. There’s some crazy sentiment that Miami just has to deal a starting pitcher at a discount – like its been decreed from a higher power. Pablo Lopez is a better pitcher than both Frankie Montas and Luis Castillo. He’s under team control for longer than both of those guys. The reported asking price for Montas and Castillo is exorbitant – the price on Pablo Lopez would be even more so.
Not to say the Marlins hang up on an offer – but I can’t think of many teams that have the prospects to bring back Lopez. It would take 3 top 100 prospects – one of whom should be a top 10 overall or so. The Marlins would ask for position players most likely. Other than the Dodgers, Mets and Cardinals, there aren’t many organizations that have the prospect capital for this.
You’ll be sorry.
The Rangers are the Colorado Rockies of the AL.
Love Perez, even liked him his 1st stint but I still say if u can’t extend him by deadline then trade him. This isn’t our year, even if we get hot in next 2 months, u still gotta contend with Houston and New year. So build for next season.
It’s quite disconcerting on how badly Winn has regressed this season in AAA. Beyond his inflated ERA & WHIP, his strikeout rates have fallen close to 40% compared to his 2021 AA/AAA results. I can’t find anything about a drop in velocity but he is not fooling many batters in AAA this season which is concerning. He seemed to be a lock as a solid #2 or #3 starter in the majors but that is really in question now. Hopefully he is just tipping his pitches and they can correct that, but if his velocity is down then I’d be worried about his future as that is often a precursor to surgery.
As far a Leiter goes, his sub-par performance could be chalked up to growing pains but it is still concerning as well. Coming into 2022, it seemed to be a certainty that both Leiter and Winn would be a big part of the Rangers rotation come 2023. Unless they both have major 2nd half turnarounds, neither one appears to be ready to make the jump to the majors next season which means yet another season in Texas of trying to find veteran starting pitchers in free agency that they can sign to short term deals. Not an optimal approach to building a contender in Arlington…
Winn is a Rangers-only kind of story: Early in the season he took a comebacker off his leg. The Rangers, inexplicably, pitched him through the pain. His delivery suffered, which then caused the velocity to go with it. He then proceeded to get hit hard. The Rangers kept rolling him out there, as opposed to shutting him down to get his leg and mechanics right. There’ was some optimism that he was making progress – but in July he’s allowed 12 hits and walked 7 in less than 7 IP. The Rangers seem hellbent on getting him to the majors in 2023 – even if his results, development and health are indicating that is at least a half season too early.
Leiter is another Rangers cautionary tale: He was started at a level too high. College arms are, almost without exception, started at High A the year after the draft. (Gavin Williams as an example). They can get their rhythm and confidence going at this level and, with success, hit AA running midseason or so. Well, the Rangers threw Leiter into the fire and he’s struggled mightily – to the extent he’s only pitched once in the last 3 weeks and that was a debacle that was less than 2 innings with 7 hits and two walks. Reports from BA have his delivery out of whack, which has caused command and control issues. He should be sent to Arizona to work everything out – which would delay his timeline and push him a year or so behind guys like Gavin Williams.
Ya sounds like Texas really shat the bed with this one.. obviously, still early and still an auspicious prospect.
Lightning rarely strikes the same place twice. Get what you can before he turns back into a pumpkin
Perez is doing what he has struggled to do in previous years and that is limit the big innings. He might not have a lot of success doing so the rest of the year as he did the first half but it’s been great to watch. I think they keep him because they literally only have 3 starters including him and the pen is taxed like crazy with Santana and Barlow being used very frequently. He picked Texas over other and higher offers so he wants to be here. I can see a 2/20-25 with a vesting or club option for a 3rd year. They need stability and veteran presence besides Gray in that rotation. Their young guys at the upper levels haven’t pushed enough to be options for the rotation. I think they do make a trade for a MLB controlled starter but who I don’t know. This trade deadline is going to be interesting.
Hot take : The Pirates will be true contenders before the Rangers.