With less than two weeks until the trade deadline, the Rangers will have to make a decision on how to proceed with Martín Pérez. Signed to a one-year deal over the offseason, the left-hander is an impending free agent on a team that currently sits 7 1/2 games out of a playoff spot. That makes him a fairly obvious trade candidate, although both the hurler and Texas general manager Chris Young have expressed interest in working out an extension.
Pérez reiterated his interest when speaking with Robert Murray of FanSided, but he indicated that talks had yet to get underway. “We haven’t talked anything about an extension,” Pérez told Murray. “I signed with Texas again. That was my home for a long time. I feel great there. But I don’t know what their plans are. … I’d like to stay. It’s the same when you go back home and you always want to stay.”
As he suggested, Pérez is plenty familiar with the organization. He began his career as a Ranger, developing into one of the game’s top pitching prospects and reaching the majors for the first time in 2012. He spent six-plus seasons in Arlington before heading to Minnesota in advance of the 2019 campaign. After a year with the Twins and two seasons with the Red Sox, he returned to his original stomping grounds on a buy-low $4MM deal coming out of the lockout.
The Rangers have gotten well beyond their money’s worth on that pact. Pérez pitched his way to the All-Star Game for the first time, tossing 111 innings of 2.68 ERA ball through 18 starts. He hasn’t posted an ERA below 4.00 in any season since 2013, but he appears on his way to achieving that mark this year. That should draw him some attention from pitching-needy contenders over the next couple weeks, particularly given the underwhelming recent runs from some of the other rental arms available.
That said, it’s unlikely that rival teams will view Pérez as the middle or top of the rotation arm that sterling ERA would suggest. He owns a career-best strikeout percentage, but it’s still a couple ticks below average at 20.7%. This year’s 8.4% swinging strike rate isn’t much different than his marks of prior seasons. He’s inducing ground-balls at a greater than 51% clip, but he’s done so in years past without the same kind of run prevention success. Indeed, a minuscule 6.7% home run per fly ball rate looks to be a key catalyst for his better results. A pitcher’s home run rate tends to fluctuate, and clubs will surely be skeptical he can keep the ball in the yard at this extent.
It’s not fair to chalk Pérez’s better numbers up entirely to luck, however. He’s working with career-best control, only walking 6.6% of opponents. He’s also tweaked his repertoire, ramping up the usage of his sinker while scaling back a cutter that had been a particularly homer-prone offering last season. That change has been most dramatic against right-handed batters, who gave Pérez fits last season. After being tattooed at a .308/.368/.514 clip without the platoon advantage, he’s holding righties to a manageable .242/.302/.359 line in 2022. He’s gotten better results against lefty hitters as well, but his improvement against righties has been starker.
There aren’t many recent precedents for pitchers coming off seasons similar to the one Pérez is having. Between 2019-21, only five pitchers (minimum 100 innings) even posted an ERA under 4.00 with strikeout, walk and grounder rates in the realm of those Pérez has posted this season. Brett Anderson hit free agency after the 2019 campaign and signed a one-year, $5MM deal with the Brewers. Anderson, though, had a spottier durability track record than Pérez has had and had an even more extreme low-strikeout approach.
Wade Miley’s 2021 numbers — 3.36 ERA, 18.1% strikeout rate, 7.2% walk percentage, 49.3% ground-ball rate — are probably the closest recent parallel. Miley wasn’t a free agent last winter. He was, however, waived by the Reds and claimed by the Cubs, who promptly exercised a $10MM club option. That kind of annual salary could be a reasonable range for Pérez, but he and his representatives are likely to seek a multi-year deal. Miley’s salary came without the benefit of open market bidding, after all, and he’s playing this season at age 35. Pérez, on the other hand, won’t turn 32 until shortly before Opening Day in 2023.
Texas’ 2023 rotation outlook is largely unclear. Jon Gray will have one spot after signing a four-year deal last offseason. Dane Dunning looks like a serviceable back-of-the-rotation arm. The Rangers haven’t gotten much else beyond that duo and Pérez, with each of Taylor Hearn, Glenn Otto and Spencer Howard struggling mightily. The organization would love if top prospects Cole Winn and Jack Leiter proved ready for the majors early next year, but both righties are scuffling in the upper minors. For the Rangers to contend for a playoff spot next season, they’ll probably need to add at least one starter from outside the organization even if they re-sign Pérez.
Presumably, president of baseball operations Jon Daniels and Young will be in touch with the southpaw’s camp shortly. Assuming there’s truly mutual extension interest, it behooves the club to have an idea of the kind of contract that could be necessary to keep him off the free agent market before August 2. How far the gap is to be bridged in extension talks will surely play a role in the front office’s decision whether to shop him to contenders for the stretch run.
tstats
Who needs a serviceable
Lefty
Putmeincoach12
The Cardinals absolutely think they do if you look at their 2022 draft. Lol
Mo is in love with finding a lefty starter so much he traded away Arozarena for Libertore who still isn’t in the Cards rotation or bullpen.
usafcop
Outlier season on a non-competing team. He has never been more than a 5th starter or long reliever.
Typical swingman type who is serviceable but pitching over his head this season.
Absolutely trade him for the best package. That is if other GM’s buy into the out of no where success.
Get what you can because he won’t pitch like this next season.
astros_fan_84
That’s definitely a solid take, but the Rangers will balance the price of the extension versus the prospect package. If no one offers a good deal and the extension is cheap, the best option might be to keep the player.
baberuthbomber8
The rangers can sign Perez in the off-season if they deal him before the deadline…
Putmeincoach12
Mozeliak is your man.
He loves low hanging fruit and he might trade away a couple of the Cards 5 top 100 prospects for him. Take DeJong too and then cut him and let him rake for the Yankees while you’re at it
Big whiffa
He just might be puttin a lil sumthin on that ball
sox4ever
Rangers should be trying to sell Perez asap. He’s the ultimate sell high player
LordD99
He is what his career says he is. Pay for that pitcher, not the one who had a hot stretch from late April to the end of May. Perez has shown the capability to have a hot stretch, which he then counters with mediocrity or, worse, a horrific stretch.
Sell.
TrillionaireTeamOperator
I’m seeing these comments and it’s like y’all think he should make his currently typical $4.5M-$6.5M on a one year deal regardless of this year’s results.
If he can keep this up to maintain that ERA or close to it through the end of the season, I think he’s earned a sizable 1-year deal with a healthy buyout on a club option or a modest multi year “set for life but not insanely highly paid for the sport” contract, but nothing more than that. A make good/see if this is real contract or a “potentially leave a small fortune on the table but get a small fortune anyway” deal:
1 year/$15M guarantee w/ $12.5M base salary and $2.5M buyout on a $17.5M mutual option or a 2 years/$28M deal w/ an opt out or something.
Or 3 years/$42M up to 4 years/$55M ($13M AAV w/ $3M buyout on a $16M option) straight up, where the total is significant for a player like Perez but the AAV is modest.
I don’t think it’s fair to just say this is such an outlier he shouldn’t get paid for 2023 or not get a multi-year deal, but anything beyond a one year commitment would be risky for a team to overpay and it’s reasonable that Perez doesn’t want to undervalue himself and get stuck being underpaid for very limited prime earning years, unless the team and Perez agreed to a below market value for his numbers on the risk that he regresses or falls apart but he gets the guaranteed salary and playing time.
MLB-1971
Trillion- you are entitled to your opinion even if it is wrong. Perez pitches ok to well in the first 10-15 starts then is brutal the rest of the year and has followed this a number of times.
TrillionaireTeamOperator
JC#1 you’re entitled to go out of your way to reply to my opinion which is just an opinion about a journeyman whose numbers have been up and down prior to this season and who still gets paid $5M-$6M a year with his more typical results and I think it’s reasonable to pay guys for what they’ve done recently.
Lots of players have very up and down careers, parlay a career year into more money, drop back off and get paid less the following season etc so paying him in 2023 for what he did in 2022 isn’t unreasonable.
He’s been paid around $5M a season for his typical production so to think he’d be paid less than $10M for this year’s results next year is silly.
He’s earned at least a 1 year/$12M deal or so. Pretty simple.
ButchAdams
I’ve got mixed feelings on this. 1 part of me says trade him for best available prospect package, if he does well on new team resign in off-season. Another part says this rotation sucks and u need someone to eat innings for remainder of the year, the bullpen was and likely will continue to be overtaxed for the season. This isn’t our year by any stretch, but still got roughly 700 innings to get through with a crop 3,4,5 and overworked bullpen