With Juan Soto on the market, the Nationals will find themselves in plenty of headlines over the next two weeks. Soto is the crown jewel of this year’s potential trade candidates, and the Nats are also expected to part with impending free agent hitters Josh Bell and Nelson Cruz before the August 2 trade deadline.
While that trio (Soto in particular) will be the group that most intrigues fans of rival teams, they’re not the only trade candidates on the roster. The Nats are likely to be open to moving virtually any of their veteran role players, and Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post reports they’re prepared to field offers on reliever Kyle Finnegan. One of Washington’s higher-leverage arms, Finnegan should hold some appeal to bullpen-needy contenders.
Signed to a major league contract over the 2019-20 offseason after a lengthy stint in the A’s farm system, Finnegan has spent the past few years in the nation’s capital. The right-hander has posted an ERA below 4.00 in all three big league seasons, and he’s generally been a durable arm for manager Dave Martinez. Aside from a two-week injured list due to a minor hamstring strain last year, Finnegan has avoided the IL as a big leaguer.
As for his appeal to rival clubs, that’s rather straightforward. Finnegan throws in the mid-90s, and he’s averaging a career-best 96.6 MPH on his sinker this season. Throughout his time in the big leagues, he’s posted slightly above-average strikeout and ground-ball marks, and he’s missing bats at a personal-best rate in 2022. Finnegan has punched out 28.3% of batters faced this year, a solid uptick over the 23.7% career mark he carried into the season. He has generated swinging strikes on 13.1% of his offerings, a bit above the 11.7% league average for relievers. His 47.9% grounder rate is also a few points higher than the typical mark.
While Finnegan has flashed the swing-and-miss and grounder upside in prior years, he’d been plagued by control issues from 2020-21. Finnegan doled out free passes to around 12% of opponents in each of his first two seasons, but he’s shown much improved strike-throwing through this season’s first few months. The Texas State product owns an 8.6% walk rate, a hair below the league average. A spike in home runs has resulted in a career-worst 3.93 ERA across 36 2/3 innings, but Finnegan’s combination of arm strength and solid underlying numbers make him an intriguing target for contenders.
His value is also buoyed by his affordability. Finnegan is making barely more than the league minimum salary, having not yet qualified for arbitration. He’ll reach arbitration for the first time at the end of the year and remains controllable through 2025. That window means the Nationals aren’t going to be as motivated to deal him this summer as they’ll be for some of their rental players, but there’s also little reason for general manager Mike Rizzo and his staff not to discuss him with other teams. Finnegan’s late-blooming status means he’s soon to turn 31 years old. That the Nats are discussing Soto with other clubs suggests they’re open to a multi-year rebuild — and a Soto trade, if it happens, would formally signify they’re embarking on that course — and a good but not elite reliever isn’t going to be the kind of player the franchise prioritizes as a building block.
That would’ve also been true of fellow high-leverage arm Tanner Rainey, a hard-throwing righty who’s likewise arbitration-eligible through 2025. Rainey’s trade candidacy was dashed last week when he landed on the 60-day injured list with a UCL sprain in his throwing elbow. Dougherty writes that the Nationals had been preparing to shop Rainey this month, but he’s not expected to return this season and could require Tommy John surgery. That saps virtually all of his trade value, making Finnegan the undisputed top player in the Washington bullpen.
Presumably, the Nationals will also make their other late-game arms available. Víctor Arano has excellent strikeout and walk numbers but a 5.01 ERA. Steve Cishek, who’s playing this season on a $1.75MM salary, looks likely to move for a modest return. He’s missing bats, holding right-handed hitters to a .212/.307/.313 line, and will hit free agency at the end of the year. Carl Edwards Jr., who cracked the roster after signing a minor league deal, has a solid combination of strikeouts and grounders and could draw a bit of interest himself.
How big of a firesale will the Nationals have? What other potential trade candidates do they have?
They’ll try to trade anybody on a 1-year contract. That means Nelson Cruz will be gone. Cesar Hernandez, Maikel Franco, Alcides Escobar, and Ehire Adrianza were all signed with the hopes of flipping them at the deadline for some prospects, but I don’t see the Nats getting anything valuable for any of those guys.
For the first time in over a decade, the Nats have a bullpen that’s not half bad. Steve Cishek and Carl Edwards Jr are definitely guys they could get value for, even Victor Arano, despite his ERA. Finnegan gets the most value, since he’s young, controllable, and has some potential. Tanner Rainey is a question mark though, because while he’s also controllable and has potential, I don’t know if the Nats want to trade him or not. I think both Finnegan and Rainey reach their full potentials with other teams at this stage in their careers.
To round it out, Soto and Josh Bell are the biggest pieces the Nats can trade, and can get some good prospects/major league players for. Soto can literally bring in prospects that can flip a farm system in terms of talent, and the Nats are in dire need for that. Bell could land some talent too, but since he’d only be a rental, probably not an exorbitant haul.
Tanner is on the 60 day list. He won’t be going anywhere.
Can’t just trade everyone b/c if you do you’re going to have to call up a bunch of prospects, put them on the 40-man and start their clocks.
Most of the Nationals’ top prospects are too far down in the system to even consider calling up.
The Nats are much more likely to ask for near-major league ready prospects as a trade return for some of their veteran rentals, and/or pick up waiver claims to get through 2022.
I’d be inclined to say that Arano has more value than Finnegan. He has a significantly better HR/9 and BB-rate. He’s 3 years younger and has been exceptionally better at limiting hard contact. Finnegan is below the bottom 5th percentile in hard hit rate and exit velo. However, you are taking a greater injury risk and one less year of control with Arano than Finnegan.
There’ll be better options than Finnegan out there
The Nationals took one hard look at the Angels.
Does this mean Finnegan could begin again with a different team?
I’m starting to think nobody in the league wants to trade for Stephen Strasburg or Patrick Corbin. And nor should they. Juan Soto should be traded solo or no deal.
If you want Juan Soto you got to take my garbage out to the curb. Nobody should have to do that. I say Soto or bust.
How about Soto and that episode of him on ice box didnt see that one coming bit like if he gets traded
I agree! If you trade him throw in one or two other bad contracts! Contracts are either + or- assests ,just like prospects, veteran players, and draft picks!
There was an average pitcher named Kyle Finnegan. He just became the Nationals’ closer to begin his career again. Now there’s a chance he’ll be traded away from Washington. Poor ol’ Kyle Finnegan begin again.
You can throw in big contracts and diminish the return. If you’re truly trying to retool with prospects you send Soto alone.
Agreed.
Send Bell, a couple relievers, and Corbin to the Red Sox for a PTBNL or something
The Nationals could take Hosmer’s contract and send Bell in a Soto trade.
I don’t follow the Nats, so Finnegan is an unknown to me. But looking at his stats, I’m wondering if I should want him on my team. He’s got the second-highest rate of home runs per fly balls of all relievers with as many innings. He’s got reverse splits, so maybe he could keep balls hit by lefties from flying into the short porch at Yankee Stadium. Trouble is, righties can homer to the opposite field too.
Nats are not getting anyone to take Corbin with Soto unless its for a greatly diminished return or another bad contract going the other way.
Unfortunately the Nats are in a position where they have to look at multiple scenarios in regards to how to play this. Soto is their ticket/merchandise draw so they could A) meet the insane demand for a half of a billion dollar extension and keep the face of the franchise. B) hold on to him and hope for a (very) quick turnaround back in to contention and either trade him after next season or at the ’24 trade deadline if they are still a 4th/5th place team or keep him and get nothing but draft pick compensation when he leaves (ala Bryce Harper). Or C) go all in (out?) And take the best package they can get now and hope the pieces they get can get them back into contention somewhere around the 2025-’26 seasons.
Expect Finnegan and probably most the Nats bullpen to be dealt as most are veteran arms and not likely to be around next year anyway
I think Rizzo realizes that this is not going to be a quick turn-around. Quite frankly, given the states of the farm and the major league team, I can’t remember a team further away from being just respectable, let alone contending. I say that being a Nats fan.
@kodiak920; yes, pretty bleak. Fortunately for them, other teams have been here and recently. The Astros approach; a full blown rebuild to a contender seems to be the model that other teams in disarray are gravitating to. I’m thinking with the Nats up for sale, potential buyers would want this going on and not yr in yr out mix and match of FAs with prospects?
Forget Soto, this is what the Dodgers really need along with a SP
Finnegans name makes me think Joey Gallo should change his name to Fanagain.
Finnegan, Corbin and $10 million to the Dodgers for a bag of balls…
The Cardinals Paul DeJong for the Nationals Finnegan.
I heard rumblings that the Nationals field box level bratwurst vendor was available to contenders, as well. He had quite the uptick in sales this first half of 2022, after finishing the 2021 season .182 in the red.