10:08pm: In a follow-up piece, Drellich and Rosenthal report a host of additional specifics on each side’s proposals to date. Among the most notable aspects under consideration: the union has proposed to extend the posting window for players coming from Asian professional leagues from the current 30 days to 45 days. Both sides are also proposing the creation of prospect leagues to operate in the Dominican Republic and Venezuela (contingent on U.S. government regulations in the latter nation). MLB’s proposed draft would begin in 2024, while the union has offered to start at some point later in 2023.
Under the MLBPA proposal, teams would be unable to sign players for below slot value but would have the discretion to go above slot. That addresses any concerns the union would’ve had about teams not spending at least their minimum bonus pool. The league’s hard-slotted proposal would prevent teams from going over the allotment, capping overall spending while eliminating the cutting of pre-draft deals.
The Athletic’s piece is worth a read for many more details for those interested in the subject.
9:05pm: Major League Baseball made its latest counterproposal to the Players Association as the sides negotiate the possibility of a draft for international amateurs, report Evan Drellich and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. It’s the league’s response to an offer put forth by the MLBPA last week. For the first time, the union showed a willingness to implement an international draft but only with certain conditions such as a higher bonus pool and the exemption of players from Japan.
The league’s proposal calls for a $181MM signing bonus pool for drafted players, according to the Athletic. That’s the same as the league’s previous offer, while Drellich and Rosenthal note the union has been seeking a $260MM pool. There is also a gap between the parties on the maximum signing bonus that would be available for undrafted players. The league is proposing a $20K cap, while the union’s proposal called for a $40K limit.
Additionally, Alden Gonzalez of ESPN reports there’s a discrepancy in slotting between the two sides. MLB is proposing fixed, hard-slotted bonuses for players depending on with which pick they’re selected. That’d differ from the domestic amateur draft, which features a set overall pool of money teams are freely allowed to spread around to draftees. The domestic draft comes with recommended slot values per pick, but teams can and do ignore those recommendations to pay certain players overslot while cutting below-slot deals with other selections. (Teams are permitted to exceed their bonus pool in the domestic draft, but doing so by more than 5% comes with future pick forfeitures no club has been willing to take on). The union, according to Gonzalez, is pushing for a similar soft-slotting system in the international draft.
Of course, the prospects involved are not perfectly analogous. International players would likely be draft-eligible at age-16, while domestic draft prospects must have graduated high school. Domestically, many high school prospects have the ability to play at a major college if they don’t sign with their drafting team. In contrast, most international amateurs won’t have that fallback.
Hard-slotting would keep teams from not offering to spend their entire allotment to take advantage of the players’ comparative lack of leverage, and it’d eliminate the possibility for teams to cut pre-draft deals with prospects. Yet it’d also reduce the ability to go over-slot for top players in the class. The league’s proposals during negotiations in March came with a $5.5125MM value for the first overall pick, for instance. The #1 pick in the 2022 domestic draft comes with an $8.842MM slot value, according to Jim Callis of MLB.com. Last year’s top selection, Henry Davis, signed for $6.5MM.
The union’s desired bonus pool would close the gap between the slot values of the selections between the international and domestic drafts. According to Gonzalez, MLB counters their proposed bonus pool would pay international players $23MM more collectively than what they received during the 2020-21 signing period, making it an economic improvement over the status quo. Of course, one of the trade-offs would be the forfeiture of players’ abilities to choose their first employer. If no draft is agreed upon, the existing system would remain in place. That features hard-capped bonus pools to limit overall team spending, but players are permitted to negotiate with all 30 clubs.
Gonzalez reports some movement the league made in more minor areas than the overall bonus allotment. The league has withdrawn its push for a mandatory one-year suspension for prospects who test positive for performance-enhancing drugs. MLB also proposed that any prospect who submitted a pre-draft physical would have to be offered the full slot value of their selection. Both sides are in agreement that a draft, if implemented, would last 20 rounds.
The parties have until July 25 to come to an agreement, with the draft likely to go into effect in 2024 if implemented. If a draft is agreed upon, the qualifying offer system would be removed, and teams would no longer have to forfeit selections for signing free agents.
Interestingly, there’ll also be a small change for the upcoming domestic draft. Bonuses for undrafted free agents have been capped at $20K in each of the past two seasons, but Kyle Glaser of Baseball America reports that’ll no longer be the case. Any expenditures north of $125K on a non-drafted player would count against a team’s pool limit, however. That’s a return to the pre-2020 setup.
Doug S.
This might be a dumb question, and I know there’s a posting system, but why is Japan to be excluded? If it’s due to the posting system, why not just institute an additional tax to the league/team for Japanese players?
Col_chestbridge
The union likely wants the exception because Japanese free agents make more. The league might be inclined to allow it because changing it would mean having to put a third party – those pro leagues – into the agreement and thus make it more complicated (less certain is why this wouldn’t also extend to Korean and Taiwanese players).
Also MLB would be foolish to not carve out an exception because the current system currently allows more money to be spent on 25+ year old players. Which means if anyone is dominating the league at a young age – like Roki Sazaki is now – there’s no reason those clubs would post him. They can’t get as much money for him through the international system as it is now, and that would be further hamstrung by the draft. It would effectively mean that any young Japanese phenom can’t come over until they’re 25+
YankeesBleacherCreature
I believe Japan wants to be excluded where they can maximize a posting fee they can receive which isn’t limited by individual team pool money.
elmedius
They also don’t want their top prospects leaving in the MLB draft and skipping NPB all together.
El Duderino
Please excuse and correct me if I’m wrong YBC, but I thought the entire posting fee was modified prior to Ohtani even so that it wasn’t as expensive.
I do feel Japan has more control because they have the Nippon League (pronounced phonetically as NEE-HAHN), but South America typically only has stuff set up by MLB.
I’m sure I’m wrong in some way, and I honestly hope people provide me clear information.
Cheers all!
YankeesBleacherCreature
No worries. Here’s a link: mlb.com/glossary/transactions/japanese-posting-sys…
El Duderino
Very informative, and I greatly appreciate the link, YBK!
I absolutely understand the posting fee more now. That said, I do recall old posting fees hitting the 100 millions if I’m not mistaken.
All that said, I do still feel the NPH has enough control to negotiate.
Thanks again for the response and link.
Cheers all!
phillyphilly4133
You have to look at the international draft and Japanese professionals as two separate units.
The international draft is set up for 16 years olds residing mainly in the DR, Venezuela, Bahamas, etc.
The Japanese/Korea posting system is for more established players. Guys coming over from these leagues have to play professionally for at least 7 years before being eligible for international free agency due to league rules. Their clubs can post them earlier and make them eligible to play in the MLB but it is no guarantee.
The stickler with the international draft will be salary floor. Nothing is in place to protect the 16 year olds if there is no salary floor. For example the A’s can pick a guy 2nd overall in the international draft. That slot may have a 5 mil value. The A’s could draft him then low ball the offer and want to pay him 1 mil. What right so the player have at that point. The A’s hold his rights as a 16 year old and the player has no options. At least with the MLB draft kids have the ability to sign, go to juco and renter the next year or play d-1 for 3 years.
El Duderino
Many great points, Philly!
I honestly should have thought of most prior. I blame the White Russians.
Seriously, thanks for making great points.
Cheers
Jcant
Can’t the 16 year old just sit out and get drafted again next year? What makes it any different? They can play in the Dominican winter league
adc6r
I believe the rational is that Japan already has an “equivalent” Major league system. Most of the players that Post from Japan are not only already MLB level, but are usually the best of Japanese baseball.
tstats
Do you guys think it is going to get done? With the QO absolving likewise?
JoeBrady
Anyone remember all those posters that were quitting baseball forever, because of the strike?
66TheNumberOfTheBest
Attendance is down 5% from pre-pandemic levels.
tstats
My bet is TV viewership is up maybe 5% or so
wes_r
Almost, if not all, MLB teams practice dynamic pricing. The goal is to optimize ticket revenue, which is not necessarily the same thing as optimizing the number of tickets sold. On the other hand, butts in seats generates ancillary spending for F&B, etc., so the number being optimized is not necessarily _just_ ticket revenue. Having said that, since we don’t have access to revenue numbers, I’m not sure a small percentage decrease in attendance is necessarily the same thing as a drop in revenue.
jnorthey
Seems silly to have 20 rounds when most reports seem to have around 300 IFAs signed each year (10 rounds worth). Not to mention many teams seem to not put a ton of effort into it now. Teams that do get rewards, but it takes 5+ years (Jays signing Kirk and Moreno for about $25k each in 2016 for example).
seamaholic 2
The percentage of stars in the big leagues that were originally signed as international free agents has been growing quickly. Teams are now insane not to play big in that scene.
mrkinsm
Not sure where you’re getting your figures but last year nearly 1,000 IFA’s were signed across all 30 teams (the vast majority are from D.R. and Venezuela). That figure is about equal to the number of domestic players that sign via the draft and as NDFA’s every year. About 160M$ league wide was spent on those 1,000 international players.
jnorthey
Sportrac has 346 last year – spotrac.com/mlb/international/ and 102 in 2019. Is there a better source? BR doesn’t list them which is odd given how much else they list.
mrkinsm
This is old, and only deals with one team but you get the point – redlegsbaseball.proboards.com/thread/14052/reds-in…
Not having a minor league season in 2020 and a shortened cycle the next year definitely reduced the figures, but that number will go back up to where it was in the past.
mrkinsm
Last year for example – between January 15th and August 15th, the Reds signed the following 21 IFA’s — keep in mind that doesn’t include the last 4 months of the signing period of which I don’t have up to date info.
C – Isturiz, Eddy –
C – Omana, Diego –
IF – Balcazar, Leonardo –
IF – Jorge, Carlos
IF – Reyes, Luis
IF – Serrano, Jose
OF – Almonte, Ariel
OF – Rijo, Brayan
OF – Valdez, Malvin –
P – Cruz, Raynardo –
P – Castro, Luis
P – Galindo, Cristian
P – Rodriguez, Alejandro –
P – Martinez, Juan
P – Marcano, Brian
OF Javier Velasquez
P Khristian Guevera
OF Reynaldo Cruz
P Eduardo Gonzalez
P Juventino Gonzalez
P Anyer Laureano
jnorthey
Where did you find that list? I’ve hunted for complete lists but haven’t had much luck. The Sportrac one is the most complete I’ve found.
mrkinsm
I used to get the Reds media guide every year, it had my club’s IFA signing list in it. And I used too follow BAmerica which posted regularly on it. COVID really killed any reporting on international signings, but it should come back.
mrkinsm
The vast majority of these guys are singing for peanuts, so nobody cares enough to report on them. Maybe 100 guys sign for what we Americans would consider big money.
mrkinsm
If you’re clamoring for info on the draft as well, here’s a solid wrapup on the Reds draft last year… redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?121938-2021-MLB…
Geebs
MLB should be moving AWAY from drafts not doubling down.
A_Cespedes_For_The_Rest_Of_Us
It benefits the owners and was used as leverage as the players pushed to remove the QO system which more directly impacts current union members — the union has traditionally negotiated away the rights of it’s future members to secure the best possible deal for it’s current members which isn’t all that shocking
That said I think we can all agree (Inc players) there is a major problem w the current system which at times can border on human trafficking and oftentimes sees 13 year old boys enter into binding agreements only to have those deals pulled at the first sign of underperformance prior to signing
SeibuLionsNPB
See I am probably in the minority here but I think there should be one draft. International prospects can still enter at 16 and have the same opportunity as the high school seniors and college players. Just have 40 rounds and allow teams to pick the players they feel are worth taking. But the exception here is that the international players would then be able to enter a league created in the dominican or venezuela that has age ranges from 16-23. That way they can either sign for their slot or enter the league. Then they become eligible again for later drafts. Or if mlb is really serious about the draft league, these players can be added to their rosters before the draft occurs. The kbo, cpbl and npb can still post their players that have already been in their organizations, but players from those countries have the opportunity to enter the draft pool as well from ages 18-23 if they do not have previous pro affiliation. This will probably never fly in the 3 leagues because most of the best players will opt for the draft but I think it would be best for all players involved. Also, I understand the reason for mlb with the slots and the topped out free agent signings but I feel like they should just move the largest amount for free agents to sign would be $125,000. Sure the larger market teams will gladly pay more and have an advantage but every team would have the opportunity to make those offers. The players not selected would still get their money and the opportunity to select their own teams to sign with.
FarhanFan22
I like the hard slot for but think undrafted bonus should be more than $20k.
That won’t even buy a new car or allow someone to live comfortably for a year in the US. $40k cap for undrafted doesn’t seem like a bad deal for team considering they don’t have to use it if they don’t like the talent available.
billybilly
I’d like to thank Anthony Franco for a terrific read! Content and organization of presented material. A+
66TheNumberOfTheBest
Constantly told there is no way baseball can things that hockey, a sport with half the revenues, manages to do just fine.
ONE draft. Yeah, it can be done…been doing it forever. Players from all over the world.
And they actually pay their minor leaguers.
Crazy.
Jcant
The education system isn’t the same
Most Americans finish high school at 18
Most Dominican baseball players finished school at 14
beersy
I’m all for some kind of International draft that goes into affect right after the Padres get Ethan Salas signed.