The Mets are among the teams with interest in Nationals slugger Nelson Cruz, reports the New York Post’s Jon Heyman.
At this stage of his career, Cruz is strictly a designated hitter. Apart from one game at first base with the Rays in 2021, he hasn’t played the field since 2018. The Mets have frequently used their DH slot to give their regulars a half-day off, though the closest things they have to regular designated hitters are J.D. Davis and Dominic Smith. Both players have shown offensive prowess in the past but are having down years so far in 2022, making it fairly logical that the Mets would be thinking about upgrades.
Through 128 plate appearances coming into tonight, Smith is hitting .221/.297/.327 for a wRC+ of 83, a far cry from the 134 he put up in 2019 and the 166 during the shortened 2020 campaign. It’s a second straight season of diminished production for Smith, as he also put up a line of .244/.304/.363 last year, 86 wRC+. As for Davis, he had a wRC+ between 118 and 137 in the previous three seasons but is down to 98 this year, with a line of .240/.328/.338 coming into tonight’s action. There’s a bit more reason for optimism in the case of Davis, as he’s still hitting the ball hard. Statcast gives him good marks on basically every batted ball metric, including placing him in the 98th percentile in terms of average exit velocity. However, it seems the Mets are willing to look outside the organization to consider a change.
The Nationals underwent a big roster teardown last year, trading away many of their best players for prospects. In the offseason, they signed a number of veterans to one-year deals, with Cruz getting the largest and the most notable of the contracts. With the club knowing they were entering a noncompetitive rebuild year, his $15MM deal was clearly designed with a midseason trade in mind. As expected, the club is currently sporting a recording of 30-55, the second-worst in the National League.
However, Cruz isn’t exactly holding up his end of the bargain, as he’s hitting just .241/.322/.369 for a wRC+ of 94. That’s fairly similar to the production he put up with the Rays after last year’s midseason trade from the Twins. His batting line in a Rays’ uniform last year was .226/.283/.442, 96 wRC+. That means it’s been almost a full season’s worth of below average offensive production for the 42-year-old.
It’s still likely that some team takes a shot on Cruz based on his track record, but it’s unlikely the Nats will get the huge return they may have envisioned. Last year, the Twins sent Cruz and Calvin Faucher to the Rays in exchange for Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman. That deal seems to have worked out very well for the Twins, with Ryan emerging as a key piece of their rotation, though Strotman is struggling in the minors. Cruz was hitting .294/.370/.537 at the time of the deal for a wRC+ of 141, which surely helped the Twins net a return that the Nats are unlikely to match.
Since the Nats are so far out of contention and Cruz is heading back into free agency at season’s end, it’s likely that they will take the best prospect package they can find. That means it’s unlikely the Mets and Nats make perfect trading partners, as Heyman’s report notes that the Mets hope to hang onto all of their top prospects. This lines up with reporting from Bob Nightengale of USA Today from a few days ago, which suggested the Mets would prefer to take on large contracts as opposed to giving up important young players. That would seem to suggest the two clubs have misaligned priorities, though it’s possible the Nats aren’t able to get top prospects from any team, based on Cruz’s diminished production over the past year. Heyman adds this lack of willingness to deal top prospects makes it unlikely the Mets land either Josh Bell or Willson Contreras, but makes Cruz and Trey Mancini better fits. The Mets’ interest in Mancini was reported last week.
Given the rebuild, the Nats’ payroll is the lowest it’s been in about a decade, outside the shortened 2020 campaign, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. That presumably means they don’t need to move Cruz just for financial reasons. For their part, the Mets are right up against the new fourth luxury tax line of $290MM. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource estimates that the Mets have already surpassed the line, calculating their luxury tax number to be $290.1MM. The aggressive spending has worked out for them thus far, as they are currently 51-31, trailing only the Dodgers among NL teams and giving them a 2 1/2 game lead over Atlanta in the East. They will surely look to be aggressive between now and the August 2 trade deadline in order to supplement their roster for a postseason run.
Why not mention that Davis has a sky high ground ball rate and his zone contact rate is at 69% while league average is 82%? That’s why he’s bad. No thanks to Cruz he’s done.
Cruz has an xBA of .269 and an xSLG of .500. That would put him almost identical to what he did last year and in 2018. I’d say he is far from done. Just a couple unlucky months.
Funny, the Rays analytics department said the exact same thing about Cruz last year.
But as Darragh accurately pointed out, the Rays got fleeced on that trade. Nelson was a total bust in Tampa, and people are starting to wake up and realize the Rays’ use of analytics is not as successful as they had originally thought.
As a Twins fan, Nelson Cruz or Joe Ryan was a steal!
He’s been bad for a year and a half not just a couple months. At his age I don’t see a revival coming. He’s done.
A 122 wRC+ is bad? An .831 ops is bad? He wasn’t bad last year and all his underlying metrics show he should have been better.
Cosmo is right as usual.
Baseball Reference is your friend.
baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=cruzn…
.717 OPS for the second half of 2021 is bad, especially for a fulltime DH.
He’s not really that good anymore, he’s on Cruz control
Ummm if carpenter can do it then Cruz can. Lol
Davis just hit a grand slam. We dont need Cruz anymore! Seriously, its hard to believe this is a credible rumor.
Mets need a few middle relievers.
We need another bat not Cruz though
I like Mancini. Maybe get a relief pitcher out of the deal too. I have no clue who they are willing to trade at this point? Mancini’s due the remaining portion of this year’s $7.75M salary plus $10M next year. If the Mets take on all of that plus give a wild card prospect or two?
That is the hope. Def need someone around Mancini’s ability, as anything higher will require more prospect value and less wouldn’t really be worth it. They need at least 1 high-leverage BP arm, if not 2, depending on how May looks when he returns.
I’d prefer Mancini or Drury. At least Drury can play multiple positions. F Cruz.
And to think that the Mets had Drury on their roster last year and they let him go.
Yep! Bob you always did have great insight. I think they wait bit to see if JD and or Dom are really turning it around. Either way a trusted reliever is the way to go.
Please no Nelson Cruz. That ship has sailed.
Cruz ships tend to do that.
Ouch.
Yes I do it in a heartbeat
Why? He’s not an improvement over what they have and either Davis or Smith are much more likely to improve at their age.
He’s washed up he’s hunting fastballs struggling big time on sliders away
Cano didn’t work out so they’re pivoting to Cruz?
One walking medicine cabinet to another……
Exactly
Cruz is fairly easy to pitch around in the Nats lineup. He’d hit bombs in the Mets lineup with all that protection.
@Von yes he would, and his splits are encouraging, had a terrible April, but in May & June has a .370 OBP and an .830 OPS, 131 OPS+
Right. But the question is, is he worth giving up a prospect for? And the answer is no.
I don’t think Cruz would merit a significant return. Mostly money.
A few bucks? Maybe.
A human body who can put a uniform on? Absolutely not.
@VonPurpleHays; agreed. Plus, Buck had him in Baltimore where he was an excellent clubhouse guy.
Father Time is catching up to most of the MLB senior citizens this season.
Correct me if I’m wrong, Pujols, Molina, and Cruz oldest players in MLB… None of them are having very good seasons
Add Rich Hill to that list.
But Wainwright and Verlander are having pretty good seasons.
Verlander has surgically reinforced elbow but has otherwise defied Father Time. Waino has perfect mechanics and is the definition of the way to play the game. One of the very best.
Cruz? Only if we don’t give up anything in terms of talent and we just take on the contract. But it does concern me that he’s 42 and it’s been a full season of sub .800 ops.
I’m tired of watching Nedo at bats. If we can’t get Contreras, that’s fine. We have Alvarez for the future. If it costs a top prospect to rent him, no thanks. But I’d like to rent some kind of bat to back up McCann. Or maybe get someone who’s good enough that McCann can back up. Who that is, I don’t know. I’d have to do some research I’m too lazy to do right now.
I’m also interested in improving DH but it has to be a clear cut improvement over what we already have out there. I can also upgrade left and have Cahna come off the bench and DH in spots. Then there’s obviously the pen that needs a little work. What’s the latest on Rosenthal btw?
I’d take Nido over McCann. The pitchers seem to prefer him. That McCann contract is a ball and chain.
It’s not a ball and chain to Cohen. It would have been to the Wilpons.
Rumor has it Mets are considering trading Jorge Velandia straight up for Cruz.
I think that Velandia guy died after he finished playing 15 years ago.
Actually, AGM for Phillies.
From an irrelevant playing career to an irrelevant front office. Got it.
How about George Costanza?
Don’t really want Nellie at this point in his career but if they only want Mel Rojas and Braden Looper I’ll do it. Hell, I’ll throw in Aaron Heilman.
Hard to believe Nelson’s. 691
OPS is 1% better than average on that team. Talk about a lousy hitting team. Magician Manfred needs to release some of those 2019 baseballs back into MLB’s bloodstream…..
.
Cruz would be interesting. Can’t help but see Nats try and squeeze Mets for something better than some no name low level minor leaguer tho.
Not squeezing anyone for a 42 year old with a below .700ops
I like his bat and think he’ll bounce back somewhat, but don’t think adding another struggling bat to the DH mix is a good idea.
Cruz over his career is a good player and good bat but he is not that great now. I rather like that they try to rotate players through there such as alonso and mcneil and others to give them some rest without losing their bat while getting Guillorme’s glove on the field some too. If you have Cruz that will no longer be possible and you lose a little flexibility on the roster. Atleast Smith can handle first to give alonso a day or two of rest a week as i dont think there is a 1st baseman other than smith or alonso. I guess McCann or Canha in a pinch.
That’s why I’d prefer Drury. He can play all over the infield. It worries me that he’s having a breakout year because who knows what it would take to get him? Just would rather have him if they’re not giving up prospects.
Cincinnati might consider offloading salary as an alternative to prospects for Drury. Could maybe even pry away Luis Castillo by taking on Mike Moustakas’ contract.
Or include a 3rd team for Castillo and maybe even net a prospect or two in return for taking Drury plus most of Moustakas’ salary.
Cruz power numbers are down but he’s still productive. It should also be noted that he is the second oldest hitter in Baseball this season. Maybe a change of scenery to a playoff contender might light a spark in his bat.
By what standard is he productive? He’s no better than the players he’s supposed to be replacing. A change of scenery isn’t gonna make him younger and what does geography have to do with it anyway? I guess that, as a sort of lottery ticket he’s an ok idea but I wouldn’t bother.
I’d argue that with a better lineup surrounding him, he’d be an improvement over Davis/Smith and the Mets current DH options. He’d also cost the Mets very little. So I get the logic from one standpoint. Conversely, he’s an aging veteran with a declined skillset. It’d be a low-risk gamble.
If he played a position I’d be more inclined but he’s just not anywhere near enough if an improvement to give up on Smith or Davis, both of whom have at least as good a chance of heating up as he does. I don’t get fans who hate Smith and Davis but are cool with Nido. They can survive with a league average DH. If they do need serious improvement on offense, Cruz ain’t it. I’d rather try to improve at catcher and in the bullpen.
Nido is a solid defensive Catcher and a #9 hitter in the lineup. The Astros have been carrying Martin Maldonado for the same reason. You can live with one easy out in your lineup if the player makes a difference on the other side of the ball.
As for Cruz being better than Davis/Smith: Cruz has more Hits, Runs Scored, Home Runs, RBI’s, Walks, and fewer Strikeouts in 13 more AB’s than Davis/Smith combined. The duo has 1 more Extra-base hit. In that regard Cruz is an upgrade
It’s a slight improvement to your point. I don’t really think it’s a move the Mets need to make, but it’s creative. I assume one of Smith or Davis (not both) would be moved for pitching help so Cruz could potentially fill that void for cheap. Again, the Mets are fine. They don’t need to make these moves, but it’s interesting to think about.
If you are the Mets you are looking back at july 31st last year with a 5 game lead in the NL East and watched it all go away. The Mets may overthink it this year and may make a move or 2 that they don’t necessarily have to but currently sitting with a 3.5 game lead doesn’t mean playoffs even with the expanded format. Sure they could use bullpen help but so could everyone else
The best thing for the Mets would be deGrom coming back and pitching well in the second half and Scherzer staying healthy the rest of the way.
You are right that by the standards of today Nido is an ok catcher, but look at that OPS+, and he’s a negative WAR. Just seems like an easier upgrade. Cruz on the other hand, isn’t even an upgrade.
That’s trying to create a match….NO….if Cohen wanted a Nat’s bat at the deadline he’d get Bell.
No to Cruz; yes to Soto.
Jon Heyman is a hack living off his past accomplishments. When was the last time he was at the front of a truly cutting edge story?
He breaks 3-4 major signings evey offseason.
Prove it.
Just google it yourself. It’s not difficult. I remember he broke the Harper signing.
Burden of proof lies with the accusor.
You literally accused Heyman first
So then the burden is on you, Nottingham.
He accused me of falsehoods and yet we’ve not seen him step up and show evidence of Heyman’s foresight.
Maybe time to head back to The Crusades, Master Robin.
And you’ve shown no evidence that Heyman is a hack. Get it now?
nottinghamforest I literally mentioned him breaking the Harper signing news. I’m not a Heyman fan, but fair is fair. He breaks news constantly. He also spews rumors nonstop. It’s his job.
Guy they should really be after should be Miguel Cabrera from the Tigers.
His batting over 300, doesn’t strike out much and has always been a clutch hitter.
Holy crap no. So much wrong with this. Keep believing in things like clutch, things that every front office have known to be false for decades.
Cosmo – Good thing I said “as usual” instead of “as always”! LOL
So you believe every player is a robot that performs at the exact same level regardless of the situation (tie game, RISP, postseason, etc)?
Emotions, nerves, anxiety, pressure, none of that affects players positively or negatively?
Clearly you’ve never seen Ortiz or Schilling perform in the postseason.
Heh. Even the great ones sometimes disagree. In terms of watching Ortiz, that’s the definition of anecdotal evidence. Once you account for randomness it means nothing. As far as pitchers go, intensity could possibly lead to better performance, ie throwing harder, but with hitters there simply isn’t any causation. Correlation caused by randomness but no causation.
@Feverpitch That can’t be right, RBI’s and Wins are “team” stats, the players with a lot of them just had more opportunity. Lol. They had the opportunity because they earned it by performing.
@Cosmo Clutch is real in every sport. There is a whole other level above talent when games are on the line, it’s what makes the Joe Montana’s, Larry Bird’s, and Reggie Jackson’s so special.
Clutch isn’t real, studies have been done. No front office believes in it. Once you account for randomness it disappears. It’s a fan myth. Montana , for example was always good so therefore he was good in the playoffs. Again, you’re arguing with experts not me. And RBIs are team stats. Talk to a mathematician they’ll tell you. A player doesn’t control who is on base when they get a hit. What you are claiming doesn’t hold up to actual science. Talk radio, sure. Science, math and logic, not so much. Until you account for randomness statistics are very misleading. You’re not accounting for randomness.
With the amount of money owed to Cruz there should be no other return other than the low A player to be named later.
@RJNarvick Exactly. He would cost nothing more than money. The Mets are already over the limit. It’s why I think looking at him makes some sense for the Mets. It’s completely low risk.
Nats will probably want a decent prospect and offer to eat at least half the remaining money to improve the return, which they can afford to do. Whether that would appeal to the Mets is another question.
The Mets have been patient with their hitters and they are starting to improve. Davis, Smith and McCann are slowly showing positive signs. I don’t see where the Mets need another DH. Pitching, yes. Bullpen can always use bolstering.
This is exactly my thinking.
I agree the more I think about it. I like Mancini (if they feel they absolutely need to go after a hitter) though he’s more of a luxury than a necessity.
I’d prefer they bring up a couple of the kids to see if they can inject some energy into the lineup. Alvarez’s bat is just as ready as any of the top prospects who’ve been called up this year. Vientos doesn’t have anything left to prove in the minors – it’s time.
Give the kids a chance and trade for all the pitching we can get (starter + multiple relievers). LFGM
Reasonable post. I wish they gave Vientos a shot to be DH, give him a taste of the majors. I’m wondering if they are keeping him down in the minors to rake, in the event they dangle him as trade bait. If they brought him up and he tanked, that may make him look less valuable near the deadline. I like the kid, but you need to trade talent to get talent.
I think the Cubs could play a good third team in a deal. The Cubs have a number of AA hitting prospects who they will have to add to their 40-man this winter, and they can’t keep them all even after they sell off again.
Meanwhile, the Cubs could easily take on Smith to split 1B with Schwindel the rest of the year, especially if they trade Ian Happ before the ASB as is being rumored. That would let them play Rivas/Velasquez in LF, and Smith/Schwindel at 1B.
So maybe the Mets send an A ball prospect to DC and Smith to Chicago, and the Cubs send a AA/AAA version of Smith (maybe Bryce Ball who they got from the Braves last year) to the Nats. There may need to be some A ball pieces to balance.
Contreras would be the better play for the Mets. This has become a Mets team ‘now,’ and moving an Alvarez may be the play. Improve defensively behind the plate while improving the offense is a no brainer. And at 30 they can still get a few years of solid production out of him.
Getting Cruz wouldn’t exclude other moves. Cruz would cost them nothing more than money.
No way the Mets move Alvarez or any top prospect. Cohen and Eppler have been clear that they are willing to take on money but will not trade top prospects.
Cohen didn’t make his money being honest all the time. I tend to think you’re right, but a bananas trade wouldn’t shock me with Cohen. He’s winning at all cost, luckily, the Mets are good enough that they can win without another huge move. They’re fine.
Epstein moved Torres, the top Cubs prospect for Chapman as a rental. He was a difference maker and they won the WS. Mets moved JK, their top prospect for Diaz, and so far it’s worked out. JK kills the minors but can’t stick the majors. I’m sure he’ll eventually make it, but there’s no guarantee.
And I’d never suggest a deal like this until Cohen took over. Love seeing the kids grow with the team, but Cohen enables ‘now’ as opposed to ‘within the next 5 years’ strategy.
LOL….the Mets aren’t moving Alvarez for anyone. He is the top #1-#2 ranked prospect AND he plays a premium position at catcher. Unlike other catching prospects, he is projecting to stick behind the dish. He has generational talent and is only 20, yet is already mashing. Every team may ask about Alvarez, but there is ZERO chance he is moved. I guess if WAS moved Soto, then Alvarez+ could happen, but that isn’t a realistic move given Soto is a top 5-10 player currently.
maybe we could get brandon drury again….. hes having a fantastic season and who wouldnt want to yell lets go brandon at citifield
Nelson Cruz? Oh, hell no.