The Orioles surprisingly enter deadline season with some questions about the course of action they could take over the next few weeks. Baltimore looked like a slam-dunk seller as recently as ten days ago, but an eight-game win streak that has pulled them within two games of a Wild Card spot at least raises the possibility of the club reconsidering that approach.
It’s unfamiliar territory for general manager Mike Elias, who has been overseeing a complete rebuild since he was hired in November 2018. The baseball operations leader acknowledged as much in a chat with Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic yesterday, saying the O’s could be in position for “one of the more flexible trade deadlines that we’ve encountered.” Elias acknowledged the club’s playoff chances remain low given the strength of the AL East but noted the next few weeks of games could have an impact on the team’s plans.
Even if the O’s continue to play well through the end of the month, the front office is unlikely to push many chips in to add impending free agents. Both Rosenthal and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com float the possibility of Baltimore looking to acquire players under control beyond this season, though. Elias told Rosenthal the front office is of the belief the O’s “2023 picture is increasingly bright,” and Rosenthal writes that team officials have downplayed the chance of parting with controllable core pieces like Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays in the wake of their solid run.
The Orioles are one of a handful of teams in the middle-ground of the standings that could resist strict bucketing into “buyer” or “seller” territory. There’s room for the club to explore dealing away players on shorter-term contracts — particularly if they stumble over the next three weeks and fall a bit out of the playoff picture — while remaining open to opportunities to add more controllable talent. In such a scenario, first baseman Trey Mancini would seemingly be the top trade candidate, as he’s likely to decline his end of a mutual option and hit free agency at the end of the season.
Mancini is the only notable impending free agent on the roster, but Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com notes that starter Jordan Lyles could be made available as well. The right-hander signed a one-year, $7MM guarantee over the offseason. That deal contains an $11MM club option for next season, but that seems likelier to be bought out. Through 17 starts, Lyles has tossed 98 innings of 4.50 ERA ball. He’s thrown plenty of strikes but posted below-average strikeout (18.9%) and ground-ball (40.6%) rates. Lyles is a durable source of innings, and Kubatko writes he’s been a strong veteran mentor for the team’s younger starters. Nevertheless, the Orioles aren’t likely to take him off the table if they field offers on short-term veterans.
As for the possibility of simultaneously looking to add controllable talent, infield and/or rotation pickups could be areas of interest. Rosenthal suggests the O’s may be a fit for Blake Snell if the Padres look to deal a starter to free breathing room against the luxury tax. Whether San Diego is willing to subtract from its rotation depth remains to be seen, but the Friars have virtually no payroll space to accommodate midseason additions if they’re intent on not surpassing the base tax threshold.
San Diego is expected to seek outfield help this summer, and Rosenthal reports they’ve had interest in Baltimore’s Anthony Santander in the past. Santander is playing this season on a $3.15MM salary and is arbitration-eligible through 2024; Snell is counting for $10MM against the Friars’ tax ledger, although his actual salary is a bit higher at $13.1MM. He’s under contract for $16.6MM next year before hitting free agency. Baltimore seems unlikely to accept a straight Snell for Santander swap, but they have virtually no commitments on the books next season and could look into an opportunity to buy low on Snell as part of a larger deal.
Feinsand, meanwhile, hears industry chatter the O’s might try to make a push for Marlins starter Pablo López. Unlike Snell, López is eminently affordable ($2.45MM salary) and arbitration-eligible through 2024. It’s easy to see the appeal for Baltimore, but the vast majority of teams around the league would be involved in Miami were to make López available. The Fish entered play Tuesday four games back in the National League Wild Card race and don’t seem likely to shop the 26-year-old over the next few weeks anyhow.
In either event, Snell and López serve as examples of myriad possibilities Elias and his staff could consider. Baltimore probably won’t be motivated enough to outbid bona fide contenders for top-of-the-market trade candidates like Luis Castillo or Frankie Montas, but they’re at least in position to entertain a wide range of outcomes for the first time in a long while.
Pablo Lopez would be a great addition with the marlins having the pitching depth in the minors Santander and another piece like prieto could get it done
That offer is ass. Not even in the ballpark my man.
It would take Mullins or Hays
Pablo Lopez would require a Top 3 Orioles prospect plus Santander and one other lower-level piece as well.
Yeah I feel like Lopez for Mullins plus Westburg and Juan De Los Santos could get it done. Gives them an OF’er with one more year of control than Lopez, a backend top 100 SS and a SP lottery ticket for 2+ years of a guy who wouldn’t be out of place as the ace of a rotation. Pitching costs talent.
No way that is going to happen
I’d trade Mullins for Lopez personally. I don’t know that it would happen but I’d do it. Top tier pitching is harder to find and the system is loaded with OF’ers. Austin Hays would be a good CF. You can put Cowser, Stowers, or Kjerstad in a corner in the not so distant future. Maybe even Yusniel Diaz
Or we could pony up a little cash for a corner OF this off-season til we deem one of those guys ready.
Actually Lopez only has 2 years left. I’d probably have to hammer out an extension with him before pulling that trigger.
I don’t think that offer comes close. The Marlins would likely hang up the phone.
Doubt the Marlins would hang up the phone considering how actively these two teams have dealt with each other. But I agree Lopez is not being obtained for Santander alone.
I don’t think they should execute a fire sale, but they gotta keep in mind that they are still in the midst of the rebuild. They remind me a bit of the M’s last year, playing way above their head earlier than expected. If I’m in the Orioles front office I’m definitely looking for cheap depth at the deadline. They have a good starting 1-7/8 lineup, they just need some roster cushion and help on the pitching side of things.
But they play hard! Fun squad to watch. They all bust their ass.
Go O’s!
We all should be rooting for Baltimore. It’s a great underdog story and the ahole Sox fans who have been bragging about the wc standings and dismissing the Os need to get a wakeup slap. Your time is over, Baltimores time is here.
It’s just too bad that Baltimore can’t draw any fans to their games. That is going to impact their offseason as they aren’t going to be able to afford to spend at the top of the free agent market. They could get one marquee player but they are not going to ratchet up their payroll to over $120M anytime soon.
It such a shame because Camden Yards is still a Top 3-5 venue in my opinion. The biggest issue they face is their city’s crime rate. Even the Inner Harbor is being affected by crime. If you walk 3-4 blocks from the stadium, you get yourself into some dangerous locations. It’s really sad to see. Parents don’t want to bring their kids there for a night game. The Mayor needs to clean the city up or at least have a much larger police presence so fans feel safe. I’m a pretty big guy and I was very uneasy the last two times I went there and parked 6-7 blocks away from the stadium.
I hated Baltimore as a kid in the late 90’s, they were a perennial thorn in the Mariners side. Robby Alomar, Raffy Palmeiro, Brady Anderson, freaking BJ Suckoff and Cal. They killed us. I’ll never forget them roughing up the Unit game one in the 97 playoffs. Next game they demolished our crappy bullpen and there went our best chance at a Series with that legendary offense.
They have a rich history of success. It feels like they need to be respected as an organization more than they are.
Small sample, but the O’s drew in excess of 90,000 for the four-game series against the Angels this past week. The fans are returning and the more the team wins, the bigger the crowds will be.
Floppy hat and Hawaiian shirt nights certainly helped the attendance. But if they keep winning “they will come”.
Sad but very true..
Progressive DAs like Mosby are ruining big cities. No charges no bail for violent criminals but they go hard prosecuting corrections officers and cops for excessive force. As a kid I thought O Park was heaven but now it’s surrounded by hell. Ain’t worth the risk to attend a game.
DorothyMantooth and RemoveManagerRecords are out of touch whiners
Omar – why? Because its true?
Downtown Baltimore is DRASTICALLY different than it was 25-30 years ago. My father was a major in the BCPD, so I speak from knowledge and memory. The Inner Harbor was untouchable because Schaefer would freak even if someone got pickpocketed there in the 80s to 90s. Little Italy was perfectly safe to be in at night. Fells, Canton, Federal Hill…all fine minus car break ins – which are everywhere – and drunks – understandable. The Pratt St corridor and downtown by the stadiums was added to that safe circle when OPACY opened. I was 17 when it opened – Dad had no problems with me driving or taking the shuttle to attend night games (and no cell phones back then!). Perfectly safe in my early/mid 20s hanging in the above named areas at night. I stopped hanging out down there not because of safety but because I got sick of the bar/club scene….stopped going to games because of the spiraling expense. (To be fair, I did have a friend who worked for the Orioles in the mid 90s I’d get in free a lot, when the freebies ended it coincided with the team stinking and I stopped going)
Completely different now, with a more drastic decline after the Freddie Gray incident and subsequent riots followed by COVID. The Inner Harbor is no longer the protected circle, restaurant attendance around Pratt dropped off significantly with very little post-covid recovery. There are muggings and hold ups and beatings in the blocks immediately surrounding and even in Little Italy, Fells, Canton….you would NEVER see than 25 years ago.
Part of the reason for the attendance drop is the crumbling city and being soft on crime. Baltimore is not alone with that. OPACY’s location was once a huge asset for the club…now it is steadily becoming a liability. Part of the reason is the expense, a day at the ballpark has become more and more unaffordable for a typical family with kids. Part of the reason is the game in general being out of step with the millennials and younger.
Surely the attendance will rise if the Orioles can stay at or above .500 for a couple of years. But the years of selling out every game are gone.
The orioles have no payroll on their roster. They can spend way more than where we currently are. If other ALE teams aren’t thinking about the O’s they should be because the team is already competitive with waiver claims and homegrown prospects.
Uh, blind. O’s had a $168M payroll just six years ago. They offered $300M to Correa over the offseason. Anyone saying the O’s don’t have money is an idiot. And Camden Yards had a good crowd last homestand – the seats will be filled again. Tell us more about how you know nothing about the Orioles.
Mike Elias definitely isn’t selling the farm for a chance at the Wild Card. They are too close to being a powerhouse. If a deal makes sense for Mancini I guess take it. Will probably be better having him ride it out. Only let Jorge Lopez go if a desperate team offers too much to appease their fans. Lyles has been great for this team but no reason to keep him if a mid level prospect is offered. Santander has control. I don’t mind the Snell deal if a prospect is attached. Also do not see any reason to trade him just for the sake of trading him. To summarize I’d be just fine if they made no moves but who knows what these desperate teams will be offering to get that big social media post from jomboy saying that their team is all in.
They need to take advantage of opportunities to add to the Rotation.
If the orioles believe they can fix snell then take him on. We’re talking about a guy who won a CY young for Pennies on the dollar.
I’m all over that. We have the payroll flexibility and the need.
If I’m the O’s, sell your short term pieces. Realistically even though you have a very dependable bullpen and your hitters are starting to come around (even if mullins isn’t currently what he was last year) your starting pitching doesn’t have a track record of sustained success through an entire season. I would love to see them catch lightning in a bottle and make a playoff run but it is a tall order to be without your best starting pitcher and an established starting rotation.
Did u say nine game win streak now. We’re going streaking
They’re still in last place in their division. I guess the other divisions are so bad they could make the playoffs. That’s really the best the O’s can hope for
It’s because the AL East is so good. O’s have 45 wins – Bos and Tor have 47, Rays have 48. That “last place” trope is for morons. Still only 2 games out of WC 3…
Would O’s do straight up Mancini for Dom Smith? He has the ability to turn things around, is a good fielding first baseman, and has years of control remaining. He’s a good change of scenery candidate. Mancini has the bat the Mets need down the stretch, though the Mets wouldn’t be able to offer him a QO if they kept him. The Orioles could if they decide to keep him and he declines the mutual option. That said I think their playoff hopes don’t go significantly down with Dom instead of Trey and it’s unlikely they re-sign Trey.
I could see the Mets adding someone like Thomas Szapucki to that deal, but not any of the top prospects.
I would be shocked if they were interested in someone like Smith. The O’s are stacked with position player quality talent throughout their system. Seems like Elias is looking for starting pitching high prospects that are younger with “show” level possibilities starting in 2024? Another story posted here recently about Mets looking for a hitter and reliever. Would they be interested in a Mancini and Tate type package for someone like Butto?
Smith is an interesting player but the Mets would have to do quite a bit better than that for Mancini.
The Orioles have Ryan Mountcastle to play 1B.
They have a number of players on the team that can DH if they trade Trey. Additionally, they have some prospects that will be called up later this season that can DH as well. They don’t need a guy hitting .203 because maybe they can keep him in 2023.
He’s a career .247 hitter and hit over .300 in 2020. I realize the Orioles wouldn’t do it straight up. Szapucki’s the Mets #16 prospect. He’s been held back by injuries but he does have the ability to make a starting rotation. If the Orioles need an MLB ready, top ten prospect from a team, the Mets have a decent reliever at #10 in their prospect list in Colin Holderman.
phenomenalajs;
They have no reason to give Dom Smith a roster space.
If Szapucki is better than any other prospect they can get from teams interested in Mancini than perhaps they’ll take him. If it’s me I keep Mancini for the year, as I doubt anyone they get for him will ever do much in the majors…..same as happens with most trading deadline deals. The Orioles are loaded with minor league position prospects.
I wish I valued Szap as much as you do. I doubt he pulls in anything.
Phenom; If you are ok trading him as a fan, likely he’s not a guy anybody wants in a deal or another team will have a better offer than that. O’s have a cheaper, more controllable, and better 1st baseman in Mountcastle that makes Dom Smith unappetizing to the O’s. Szap sounds like a prospect that people are starting to lose faith in so I’m sure Elias feels the same.
I think it will take one of Hamel, Ziegler, or Butto for Mancini and maybe some DSL throw in. I’m sure you’ll say that’s too much but Elias has all the leverage with the new option to stand Pat and go for it so if the O’s don’t get a legit SP candidate or hopeful MLB regular for Mancini I don’t see them making a deal.
Bring back Wade Miley for a mid-tier prospect if the Snell deal doesn’t pan out.
So what these articles and posts are saying is that the Orioles should look to deal Jordan Lyles, who’s been eating innings for them (as he did in tonight’s win), and then take on Blake Snell because the Padres need payroll relief to make another trade. That’s why the Orioles exist – to help out a team that needs salary cap relief.
Meanwhile Lyles is having a year similar to Snell, although Lyles has pitched almost double the innings which the Orioles need to save their bullpen. And Lyles is pitching this year for $7m while Snell is getting 13m…almost double. But wait!…there’s more!!!! Next year Snell is guaranteed another $16.6m while Lyles gets $11m if the O’s wan to keep him, or they can buy him out for $1m. And this assumes that either the player they receive for Lyles will be moved to SD or a comparable player will have to be moved.
Don’t think so. Unless the Orioles wind up getting at least one additional quality prospect in return this makes no sense at all.
if blake costs 16 million next season, but for luxury purposes only 10 million, are the pads required to trade the entire contract to get his number to zero?
cause if not, seems like the pads should eat every penny over the 10 million in a trade if it’s to get him off the books (assuming no mlb talent comes over for him, new team pays him 10 million next year while on the hook for same number via tax, pads eat the remaining 6 million).
also, has any cy young winner ever faster than blake has? not counting multi time winners who may have pulled out 1 last big year at like 37 or 38, fell off a cliff after that (steve stone is only one coming to mind offhand. wins it in 1980, wins 4 games in 1981, never throws another pitch again. but even then, totally different era than now).
You heard it hear first Santander and a mid level prospect (Diaz) for Lopez.
I would Like that think we would have to throw in a pitching prospect as well to sweeten the deal
@Orioles Fan, if both teams are looking to win now, Lopez for Mullins? The Ms need a CF desperately. Of course, we need starting pitching. Hayes slides to CF?
Hard to read Elias, but my gut says his focus is on 2024, not now? So; if the Ms want to win now, Sanchez (or maybe Eder) and someone like Fitterer for Mullins and Tate?
C Yards Jeff;
Come ‘on…..
I doubt the O’s trade Tate. And Mullins is simply untouchable unless he turns down an extension in a few years. Everyone in the FO, the coaching staff and the manger love the man.
Hi Samuel – I think Elias has got this, but – it strikes me that the best return for, say, a million bucks a year, might to to contract Luhnow as an advisor – extra set of eyes and analysis. Heck, dude is prob on the phone with him regularly anyway.
@Astros Hot Take; agreed. I’m thinking minutes after Crane lets Luhnow go, Elias is on the phone with John Angelos getting the okay to reach out to his mentor!
Samuel, I hear ya. Lopez for Mullins was in response to Lopez being mentioned in the story and from the first post on this thread by @Orioles Fan whom I enjoy following here. All said; I would be completely shocked if something like this would transpire.
Mullins. Hmm. IMHO, untouchable, yes, unless we get top pitching prospects(s) in return with 24 as launch season (not now or in 23). Sanchez and Fritter younger & highly regarded. Eder a little older but a top 10 Ms prospect. True both Eder and Sanchez are coming off significant injury setbacks, but Elias will invest in this type of career path. IE see T. Wells.
Tate. It’s my feeling that all relievers are trade candidates; not just with O’s, but all MLB teams in general. But that’ me.
Great back n forth. Always a pleasure. Cheers!
Thanks for the compliment @CYardsJeff
Jeff, I’m on board with it personally. I can see a world where A Mullins-Lopez blockbuster can be worked out especially with their needs being the O’s system’s strengths and vice versa.
I just don’t see the Orioles be willing to part with Mullins. The outfield is truly set for years to come. Also with Stowers coming along the only piece would be Santander and Diaz. I don’t see Diaz ever making the Orioles so hopefully they can move him during the trade deadline.
I have the same idea about Elias. I think 2024 the Orioles will be a beast to play against. In my opinion Elias has truly righted the ship. And I don’t see him blowing up the team to maybe get a wild card spot this year.
I don’t think either Mullins, Mancini, Lopez, Santander or Lyles are untouchable for the right return.
Hey Orioles fans. I am surprised that the Orioles have not been able to pickup Rondon who was released last week. Yesterday’s pickup of Head is a bit puzzling to me.
What are everyone’s thoughts on this
Head has an elite pitch (Slider) and recent success in the AL East. They think they can fix pitching now, and they are going to keep fixing pitching..
@Orioles Fan; yes, Rondon, intriguing. And only 24! That said, just scooped up by SF. Note to self to follow him a little closer.
The Padres could trade Snell for peanuts and still add talent just from the guys coming back from injury. Even by doing nothing the Padres will still be adding talent.
Duplan. Not Snell. Mike, see if Marcos is available