The Cubs have been without Kyle Hendricks for a week, as the right-hander landed on the injured list with a shoulder strain last Wednesday. While the team didn’t provide any timetable for his recovery at the time, it seems he’ll be out for an extended stretch.
Manager David Ross told reporters this evening that Hendricks will be shut down from throwing for at least two-to-three weeks (link via Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune). He won’t require surgery, but the shutdown portends a lengthy recovery stint. Given the timeline Ross provided, Hendricks seems unlikely to pick up a ball until around the start of next month.
He’ll surely need multiple weeks thereafter to build up throwing before getting back on the Wrigley Field mound. Hendricks will presumably have to start his progression from flat ground before beginning bullpen sessions and eventually moving towards a minor league rehab stint. It seems likely he’ll be out until mid-late August even in a best-case scenarios.
The shutdown virtually closes the books on whatever small chance there may have been that Hendricks could change hands this summer. Players on the injured list are eligible to be dealt, but it’s hard to envision any team taking a shot on the 32-year-old before the August 2 trade deadline. At that point, he’ll be at the very early stages of a throwing program if he’s begun one at all. He wouldn’t be of immediate assistance to any rotation-needy contenders.
Hendricks was a longshot trade candidate even prior to the injury, as he’d not been having a great season. He’s taken the ball 16 times and given the Cubs 84 1/3 innings, but he owns a career-worst 4.80 ERA. Hendricks had plenty of success in prior years, compensating for subpar velocity and swinging strike numbers with stellar control and high ground-ball rates. He’s seen his grounder numbers decline over the past couple seasons, and that currently sits at a career-low 36.2%. Unsurprisingly, Hendricks has been increasingly prone to home runs as he’s surrendered more airborne contact.
He remains an excellent strike-thrower and has posted serviceable back-of-the-rotation numbers, but it wasn’t likely he’d have a ton of trade value given his contract. Hendricks is playing this season on a $14MM salary, and he’ll make the same amount next year. That’ll be the final guaranteed season of his deal, though he’s due a $1.5MM buyout on a 2024 option.
Going from throwing 88-90mph to 86-88 has made Hendricks go from “Professor” to Flunky.
Unfortunately, much like many of the Cubs players, they held him too long and won’t get much of any value in return for him.
Always remember – it’s better to trade a guy a year too early than a year too late. Too many teams fall in love with their homegrown players – Phillies of 2010, Giants, Royals, Cubs
You are such the expert. You should put together a seminar for GM’s at the winter meetings.
What would you like the comment section to be used for?
A sign-up sheet for your “How to be a GM” seminar.
Here are his last six years of velocit:
Fastball:
2017: 86.0
2018: 87.3
2019: 87.2
2020: 87.4
2021: 87.3
2022: 86.9
Sinker
2017: 85.7
2018: 86.7
2019: 87.3
2020: 87.3
2021: 87.3
2022: 86.5
Hard to go to a “Flunky” with that consistently. He hasn’t been at or over 88 since 2016.
Just throwing out there again—-how about the spike in ERA and the coincidence of the elimination of spider tack. For someone like Hendricks and Dallas Keuchel whose numbers got even worse—what is the effect on the grip for pitchers that rely 100% on pinpoint control.?
At the speeds that guys like Hendricks and Keuchel throw, with the accuracy they did, the slightest of inches in missing the spot on the plate have to be critical.
And, or course, with the slightest change in grip or pressure, perhaps there is the slightest change in delivery/motion which eventually may lead to other things.
I wouldn’t guess that with the spider tack. Kyle had a terrible stretch in April 2021 where he was homer prone. I think it’s just him having more games where he gives up three or four homers the past couple of years. Maybe the shoulder has been bothering him more than we know.
Hendricks was pitching significantly better his last handful of starts which just so happened to be when Yan Gomes took over all of Hendricks starts.
In six starts with Gomes behind the plate, Hendricks was pitching like his old self, a 2.83 era which also included the game he hurt himself and gave up 2 runs in 3 innings.
Typically a solid performer behind the plate, Contreras has been awful this season and the starting rotations stats reflect just that. So much so that Contreras hasn’t caught a Thompson start in over a month.
There has been a shocking difference between Gomes and Wilco:
Sampson 4.76 to 2.70
Thompson 4.67 to 1.67
Steele 4.71 to 1.86 (Contreras has caught 9 more starts than Gomes)
Hendricks 5.96 to 2.83
Stroman 6.30 to 3.55
Smyly 3.62 to 4.11 (however his ba, slugging and obp are all lower with Gomes)
Needless to say, I don’t believe any members of our rotation will miss Contreras behind the plate this year.
Yan Gomes with the .148/.164/.185 slash line for the last 15-20 games. Yep, Contreras won’t be missed at all.
First off, I said he won’t be missed by any members of our ROTATION BEHIND THE PLATE. I know reading is hard but try to keep up.
Second, does Contreras RBI total offset the differences in ERA’s? I know math is harder than reading so I’ll keep it really basic, our starters ERA’s are 2.79 with Gomes and 5.00with Contreras.
As a catcher, Contreras has driven in 21 runs to Gomes 10 but also has a -5 DRS to Gomes +4.
So I repeat, behind the plate, Contreras is not going to be missed by OUR ROTATION.
I don’t think it’s valid to blame Contreras or credit Gomes for the entire difference in ERA. Some of it, but not all of it.
Part of DRS for catchers contains a catcher ERA component. Contreras is -2 for 2022 and Gomes is +1.
Clearly, Contreras is a better player than Gomes and the Cubs will miss him, but it’s better for the Cubs to trade for a prospect and let some other team overpay him in free agency.
Clearly, Steele and Thompson will not maintain sub 2 ERA’s nor will Sampson be a sub 3 pitcher but it’s perfectly valid and acceptable to credit Gomes, who has been highly regarded in his ability to develop pitchers and fault Contreras.
A guy like Gomes can easily lower a pitching staff by a run or more, where a catcher that doesn’t have the intangibles that Gomes, Molina, Maldonado have can raise it. Well ran franchises know this while their fans keep scratching their heads as to why Maldonado and Austin Hedges still are in the line up day in and day out.
Couldn’t agree with ya more Donny. Drastic Drasco is in his Gomes foxhole again.
Putting Gomes in the same sentence as Molina shows how delusional you are. Get off your high horse and come back to earth, ‘drastic’.
Hendricks wouldn’t have been the one to be traded while they were competing. He was the one that signed the team-friendly extension. (Actually, if Kyle had held out for free agency, he would have been paid significantly more after 2020.)
And the Cubs did fine with their trades at last year’s deadline. PCA and Kilian are top 100 prospects. Alcantara will probably join them in the offseason.
PCA and Alcantara both are on mlb.com’s top 100 list at the moment. Alcantara will most likely fall out after the draft.
Can’t call him professor, only one former Cub is worthy of that moniker.
I guess this, plus his poor ERA, kinda eliminates him getting traded or getting a good return. Oh well.
I don’t recall if the writer was from Fangraphs or Baseball America. But, in 2019 a pitching writer predicted that Kyle Hendricks would start having problems in the next couple of years maintaining the movement on his pitches and his control. Because he threw to soft and Hendricks way of pitching would be hard to maintain as he aged. Unfortunately that writer is correct.
I don’t care how bad he is now or is going to be, he’ll always be a legend here in Chicago
The Cubs playoff hopes just took a hit. They still have plenty of talent for a run but it’s going to be tough without the Professor. Getting Montas will help but President Hoyer is aggressive enough that a move to get Sandy Alcantara is most likely already in the works.
Alcantara-Montas-Stroman-Hendricks-Thompson is enough to win the World Series
I don’t think Hendricks will make it back, but Steele will cover for him.
Yes, their playoff chances took a hit…(I wasn’t sure they had any chance..) But the chances of #1 draft pick went up…
Sorry for double entry…