The Brewers have announced a five-year contract extension with left-hander Aaron Ashby, running through the 2027 and including club options for 2028 and 2029. Ashby will earn $20.5MM over the five guaranteed years of his extension, as per Joel Sherman of The New York Post (Twitter link). He can more than double that total if the contract is maxed out, as Sherman notes that another $25.5MM is available if both options are exercised and Ashby hits all his escalators. Ashby is represented by Turner-Gary Sports.
Robert Murray of FanSided reports the specific breakdown of terms (on Twitter). The young southpaw receives a $1MM signing bonus, and the year-by-year salary breakdown is as follows:
2023: $1MM
2024: $1.25MM
2025: $3.25MM
2026: $5.5MM
2027:$7.5MM
There’s a $1MM buyout on the 2028 option, which is valued at $9MM. The ’29 option is valued at $13MM.
The extension only cements Ashby’s place as an important piece of the Brewers’ future, and it also gives the 24-year-old some guaranteed money and security early in his career. Ashby (the nephew of former big leaguer Andy Ashby) was a fourth-round pick in the 2018 draft, and he moved quickly through the minors, winning the Brewers’ minor league Pitcher Of The Year honors in 2019 and then making his MLB debut in 2021.
Pitching as both a starter and reliever over his two seasons in the Show, Ashby has a 4.56 ERA, 58% grounder rate, 27.5% strikeout rate, and 9.9% walk rate. The unimpressive walk total is really the only blemish on Ashby’s resume, as other advanced metrics (including a career 3.40 SIERA and only a .291 xwOBA this season) indicate that his ERA is a bit misleading. A .339 BABIP this year, for instance, weighs heavier on a groundball-heavy pitcher like Ashby.
Still, there is obviously a lot for the Brewers to like with his performance to date, and Ashby has moved from swingman to full-fledged starter in the wake of injuries in Milwaukee’s rotation. Freddy Peralta and Adrian Houser are still on the injured list, though Peralta is set to begin a rehab assignment this weekend and Houser is expected back sometime in August.
With Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff both getting more expensive in their arbitration years and both scheduled for free agency after the 2024 season, it remains to be seen how the Brewers will address their rotation over the long term. Eric Lauer will also be a free agent that same winter, and Lauer is raising his own price tag with a strong performance in 2022. In locking up Ashby and Peralta to extensions, president of baseball operations David Stearns has already planted some cornerstones for a possible future without any of their other three starters, and the franchise’s proven ability to find and develop pitching continues to be a key factor in the Brewers’ ability to compete.
Peralta’s extension is an obvious comp for Ashby’s deal. Signed back in February 2020, Peralta (with just over a year of MLB service time) inked a deal also consisting of five guaranteed years and two club option years, except worth $15.5MM in guaranteed money and $14.5MM more over the option seasons. At the time, Peralta was also a swingman who had yet to fully establish himself as a rotation fixture, and Ashby’s larger guarantee could reflect his better big league results and perhaps simply two-plus years of salary inflation.
☠️5 years?
Likely a dice roll that he ends up being a decent starter and then you have locked in before he hits FA and avoid the nasty arb years too. Doubt the AAV is all that high.
Brewers are probably hoping he ends up being like his Uncle Andy.
Honestly they would be lucky if he did. Andy was never a great frontline pitcher but he was a solid middle of the rotation arm and was pretty durable over the length of his career
That doesn’t bode well for the brewers then. Uncle Andy wasn’t exactly a top Teer pitcher. The brewers are hoping for way better
Fisher I take it you haven’t seen him pitch.
If he’s “just” as good as his Uncle from ages 24 to 29(the 5 years we signed him for a grand total of 20.5M) we probably save 20-30M.
The difference is…he’s got ELITE, top of the rotation type stuff and he JUST turned 24. He’s 8th in MLB in K/9IP…a pretty damn good indicator of what type of stuff a pitcher has.
There’s almost no downside to this contract and only upside. It also makes him MUCH more valuable in trades.
I also think he’ll be a TIER above his uncle.
I don’t get this for a guy like him either. If he plays well he would get that in one year of arbitration. Andrew Heaney got more and he’s always hurt/mediocre. So even if he didn’t pan out he would still be making more than he signed for
I would guess in the range of 5 million a year
I will guess $20 million guaranteed.
I’m going to go a little higher and say $20.5 million
Im guessing another $25.5MM is available if both options are exercised and Ashby hits all his escalators.
I congratulate Fred and Taco for reading the article before posting.
The amount wasn’t there when it was first posted.
Hmmm I sense sourness
They did the same thing with Peralta years ago. They clearly see him improving on his craft. He’s shown glimpses of greatness like Peralta did before getting signed
He has all the tools, just needs to harness them.
Yep, just needs to find himself on the mound and he can probably be a reliable near or sub 4.00 ERA guy for (hopefully) like $5 mill AAV a year depending on this contract. I’ll guess it’ll be like a $1 mill to cover arb then go up to maybe over $5?
he can probably be a reliable near or sub 4.00 ERA guy for (hopefully) like $5 mill AAV a year
But will he have a winning record like Looper? (Sarcasm – sorta)
Putting better defense behind him would really help his results.
Even if he doesn’t improve…this is a good deal. 20.5 million through arby and then option years?
And of course he’s got TOR type stuff if he can just improve his command a little bit. So an obvious extension IMO. Very little risk and the upside is an elite arm on a very cheap deal.
Two FA seasons bought out and they are club options. Decent deal.
Far more than decent for the Brewers.
He’s not even arbitration eligible until 2025 so he wouldn’t be a free agent till 2028 anyway. This just locks him in and gives the franchise a number set in stone going forward.
…yes, AND then two option years. To put it in perspective, if they’d done this with Corbin Burnes or Brandon Woodruff, they’ve be looking at saving 50-60M dollars(though that’d assume they’d have any chance to sign either once they hit free agency).
The Brewers are pretty confident he’s gonna figure it out. Still young and missing spots. If he locks in, they’ll save a ton in arb salaries alone. He has really good stuff and good velo.
Incredible stuff.
Exploding 97mph sinker, plus CH, plus SL, plus CB. That’s 4 plus pitches. Command has slowly been improving the last year and a half, with a trajectory of a TOR starter sometime in the next couple of seasons. Fantastic signing.
Actually hitting 99 MPH.
And the way the Brewers develop pitching, he’s got a chance to finish top 5-10 in Cy Young voting at some point…and maybe he actually wins one.
These deals ALWAYS make sense with young, talented players. If…hypothetically, the Brewers would have signed Peralta, Hiura, Burnes, Woodruff, Nelson, Urias, all of those guys to these types of deals, they likely save money. Even if you take Burnes out(because that slants it too far to one side) these deals are virtually never bad enough for a team that it hurts them and they can end up being absolute steals like Lucroy or Peralta’s.
Now…when you hand out a 9 year extension to a guy coming off a historic 2 year run…those deals can cripple a franchise.
Tip my cap to the Brewers a very well run organization, ownership and Front Office.
Same
Mr. Stearns has done a great job of working within the framework that Mr. Attanasio has set as the owner – be a consistent playoff caliber team with a mid level payroll and give the fans hope every year that they have a shot. Let’s be clear, everything would have to go perfectly to actually win a championship (like the Braves last year), but under his tenure as owner, he’s given us exactly that. One of these years they’ll feel just a piece or 2 away and make another big trade. I don’t think it’ll be this one, however.
Well said. If Yelich and Hiura are the hitters they look like in 2019 or when Yelich was extended, this is a 100+ win team and probably the WS favorites.
I hear fans talk about how cheap Attanasio is, but…this isn’t the NFL where you have revenue sharing to the point where each team gets ~380M from the NFL or the Bucks where you have 3 Billionaire owners.
The Brewers have a TV deal that’s 1/10th the size of the Angels, Dodgers, Yankees, Mets…etc…etc…the big market teams. Attanasio could keep the payroll at 80M, take home another 40-50M a year tax free(for some revenue generated from ownership in the big 4 leagues isn’t taxed per some early 80s law).
I very much appreciate having an owner like Attanasio(not that I’d be upset if Cohen would have bought the Brewers).;…
I mean they were 1 AB or 1 pitch away from being in the World Series in 2018. The last 4 seasons they have lost to the team that the NL sent to the World Series.
Yup. I really don’t know what else Milwaukee fans expect. And frankly…I can’t remember a time when they had more young talent than they do now. They did have the top ranked farm system when they had Weeks and company(Prince, Hardy, etc…) but it wasn’t as deep and it was mostly RHed prospects.
This team has ELITE prospects who are 18 years old and just absolutely raking at HighA, they’ve finally developed a pipeline from LA as the Carolina team IIRC started 9 guys from LA and a Pitcher earlier this year…something that was unheard of just a couple years ago. Their high A roster has some depth.
AA they’ve got the last few 1st rounders and some high-high upside bats who could stick atop the order and in AAA Turang who’s a plus defender, can play any of the 3 up the middle positions, great speed, good hit skill, hits for a high averages, draws a lot of walks.
AND then they’ve got guys like Lauer, Ashby, Houser and other young players.
Everyone’s talking about a 3 year window and…that looks to be the best window right now, but they don’t seem like an organization that’s going to go from those two, Woody and Burnes…and then just go into a 5 year 100 loss a year full on rebuild.
Financial security for him and Financial flexibility for the team. Win/win for both sides.
@Rsox; agreed. Some pretty cool heads sitting across from each other at that negotiating table. Who’s his agent!?
Rex Gary
So I looked up Rex. Been in the biz for a while, but so have many other agents. Now I’m curious. How does a 19/20 year old from Missouri decide to go with an agent based in Philly area?
I have to imagine the Agent’s come to them and do the wine-and-dine full court press to get, especially young amateur athletes to sign with them
Yeah, maybe. He was a 4th round pick though. Not exactly a blue chipper.
Maybe Uncle Andy helped him?
I don’t know…if I’m Ashby, I wouldn’t sign this deal, but as a Brewers fan, I’m glad he did!
Five years of guaranteed money versus five years of Russian Roulette hoping not to get injured or non-tendered isn’t a bad gamble considering that none of his free agent years were bought out
But they were Rsox. Club options in ‘28 & ‘29. Locked-up for 7 more years.
Exactly. He’s only 24, so he’d have hit Free Agency before 30. He can still make a WHOLE lot of money, but look at Peralta. I’m pretty sure he’d rather be heading toward free agency at age 28! But we’ve got him for 3 more years after that.
Of course if that shoulder injury would have been worse, it could have ended his career like Jimmy Nelson’s.
Love it.
Decent deal. Why 5 years ?
With the club options in it, it buys out his arb seasons and 2 FA seasons if the options are excercised.
Seems like a good deal looking at it from a floor/ceiling and cost control basis. Short of significant injury, it’s a tradeable deal. $5M per is not a barrier for a lefty pitcher, and if he progresses, it will be a good deal. .
Since guys with a track record of mediocrity (or worse) can get $8 mil or more now, even if he turns into a long reliever or lefty “specialist” (as much as one can be with the 3 batter minimum) $5ish million is probably a bargain going forward. Even if his arm falls off, it’s not a crippling deal from a team standpoint.
For a small market team like the brewers the arm needs to be on him! Better get good injury insurance!
Why? I would have let him walk. 2 wins 7 loses? Two years with an ERA over 4. This seems like a waste of money.
Hes 24.
I bet you thought they should have kicked Burnes to the curb after 2019 too right?
Burnes is only 7-4 this year. He’s barely average.
You’re the kinda guy who thinks Harvey Haddix had a “good game” because he threw 12 hitless innings before giving up a hit even though he lost the game!
Casual…
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(I…hope it’s obvious I’m being sarcastic).
He barely pitched in 2021, so 2 years is short sided. Dudes arm is electric, just can have control issues at times. This is a win for the brewers
Have you seen him pitch, alumofuf, or just looking at his line? As I mentioned above, he’s just missing spots. Throws hard and nasty breaking stuff.
You’re kidding, right?
LOL…please tell me you’re not actually citing Wins and Losses for a pitcher in 2022?
He’s a young lefty with elite stuff who just turned 24. I can’t imagine a single informed Brewer fan who’d actually be upset with this extension.
Aloumof. Say you don’t know baseball without saying you don’t know baseball. And do you understand arbitration seasons at all?
Too risky for what I see! Sounds like they think he might be the next Sandy Kofax! I hope the incentives are reasonable targets, so he has to perform and just not show up!
There’s ALMOST no risk to this deal. 20.5M for 5 more years of Ashby is…a GREAT deal for the Brewers.
You realize TOR arms are going for 30-40M right now, right? He’s a lefty with an elite slider who touches 99 AND he gets ground ball.
It’s baffling to me how people think this is a bad idea…
Zero risk, hiandtight. Most people only watch their own team and look at guys stats on others. Sure paid off extending Peralta.
Solid bullpen arm in the long term. Good signing.
Just curious…why you have him pegged as a future BP arm?
He’s a starter currently in one of the best rotations in baseball and he’s got an FIP of 3.89 and he’d been a starter his entire minor league career until Nashville when the Brewers started using him out of the pen because they had…Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Lauer, Houser AND Anderson.
He’s got 4 pitches including an upper 90’s fastball, a plus-plus slider, a very good curve and a solid change.
That’s pretty much a left handed Burnes. I suppose he could throw a cutter a little more to make it more analogous, but…in terms of just stuff, he’s got everything you’d want out of a Starter.
How is there risk? Have you seen his stuff? If he breaks out and gets his control set he could be getting 10-15 million a year in arbitration. They buy that out.
Sorry for the duplicates!
Here we go again, being told that a certain walk rate is “high”, and a terrible thing, with zero context to purport to explain it. Classic misuse and lack of understanding of stats, and lack of understanding of the deep nuances of the sport.
Animalize, please elaborate. What is lacking in describing a higher-than-average walk rate as high?
Mets did the same thing with Jon Niese about a decade ago. The contract overall worked out well & could very well for MIL.
Yeah…lots of teams have done this and do this every year. The Brewers did it with Freddy Peralta and Jonathon Lucroy and both have worked out great.
This isn’t rare. This ensures that, IF he’s smart, Ashby never has to work another day in his life…even if he doesn’t become baseball rich(yet).
These are deals that it’s assumed, the Brewers or most teams offer to young players who’ve got a lot of upside. As I said in another thread, you make these types of offers to Hiura(even still IMO), Williams, Lauer, Houser, they’ve made them to Burnes and Woodruff as well as Hader(I believe).
Most players just don’t accept because you’re earning 50% of what you could otherwise earn if not less.
These types of contracts allow teams like the Brewers to stay competitive. And if he reaches his ceiling, if his luck, ie, BABIP levels out and his command improves just a bit, he’s a #1 or #2 pitcher and it’s one of the most valuable contracts in baseball.
Great stuff is great but great results are better. Maybe he can put it together but he’d be worth a lot more than this if he did. Seems more likely to be Hader/Miller than Sale too me.
Only if his control regresses. He’ll be given every chance to start. Even moving to the bullpen the price wouldn’t be THAT bad.
Hader is going to get $25 million a year after next season in Free Agency. So it’s still a pretty good deal if he becomes Hader.
He has 4 really good pitches. He’s a starter.
Interesting deal here. Low risk I suppose.. idk
Good deal for Ashby and Brewers.
I love this and believe this should move more MLB players in the quote “average” not superstar talent to secure a second contract. It takes two but the young man secures himself and the team secured a business savy deal. We need more players on teams longer and commitments from teams of this nature IMO. His age alone he could flourish. If stays average then that’s a fair deal. No overpaying deals that sound like j Heyward, P Corbin, just to name a couple.
Alan Ashby > Andy Ashby and Aaron Ashby
Jealous Cardinals fan here. Great deal for the Brewers, well done.
I don’t understand the brewers backloading him. His deal isn’t overwhelmingly expensive and their payroll as a whole isn’t insane. Just spread it out evenly or front load it honestly.
They owe a lot to Christian Yelich in the next few years, and not dealing with a bottomless pit of payroll money to spend anyway. At some point the Brewers will also need to pony up big-time to keep Burnes, Woodruff or both — so this is a smart move.
You backload guys with upside, You frontload the older guys who’s skills may diminish.
They’re probably just keeping his salary roughly what he would’ve gotten going to year to year through arbitration while leaving some flexibility to add this offseason and next while he’s still cheap.