This week on Big Hype Prospects, we’ll look at more prospects who could find themselves on the move in the next few days. Check out last week’s Juan Soto Edition of Big Hype Prospects for more deadline trade candidates.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Brett Baty, 22, 3B, NYM (AA)
350 PA, 14 HR, 1 SB, .303/.394/.507
The Mets are reportedly trying very hard to hang onto Francisco Alvarez and Baty. To accomplish all of their deadline trade goals, they might not be able to cling to both. Alvarez being the scarcer and flashier talent, I figure he’s less likely to be traded outside of a Juan Soto or Shohei Ohtani deal. Baty, however, would fit in a swap for any of the next tier of trade targets. Names like Luis Castillo, Frankie Montas, or Sean Murphy.
Baty is having a fine season after a bit of a slow start. His performance suggests a readiness for the next challenge. When I see a prospect of this caliber promoted slowly, it leads me to wonder if he’s been held down to ensure his trade value doesn’t take a hit from an untimely slump. Baty makes a ton of hard, low-angle contact. Despite a 26 percent strikeout rate, he regularly hits for a high batting average. He makes the most of his rare air-ball contact thanks to an over 20 percent HR/FB ratio. His batted ball profile reminds me of a slightly better Ryan McMahon.
Bobby Miller, 23, SP, LAD (AA)
76.1 IP, 11.20 K/9, 3.30 BB/9, 4.36 ERA
Miller receives plenty of attention for his triple-digit velocity heater, but his results don’t always match the raw stuff. This season, his ERA is a full point higher than his FIP. In the past, we would have shrugged and assumed better days awaited. Unfortunately, it seems his fastball shape and middling command are the culprits. Both issues, should they remain, will only intensify once he reaches the Majors. They could prevent him from realizing his full potential. While some kind of rotation role is likely with a floor as an elite reliever, now could represent a good time for the Dodgers to sell Miller. Some clubs might believe they can fix him.
If the worst outcomes are reminiscent of Sixto Sanchez or Hunter Greene, that’s not a bad thing. Sanchez, you might recall, was dealt for multiple seasons of J.T. Realmuto (the Phillies also included Jorge Alfaro, Will Stewart, and an international bonus slot in the deal). Miller might not be quite as beloved as Sanchez was at the time. His plus command helped assuage doubts about a modest strikeout rate. Still, that implies the Dodgers can expect to add a substantial player if they part with Miller.
Jasson Dominguez, 19, OF, NYY (A+)
(A) 423 PA, 9 HR, 19 SB, .265/.373/.440
(A+) 27 PA, 1 HR, 2 SB, .292/.370/.500
Dominguez is best-known for having the physique of a mid-20s body builder as a 17-year-old. Now 19, the developmentally mature teenager recently earned a promotion to High-A where he’s one of the youngest players on hand (recently promoted Jackson Chourio is the youngest player at the level). Reports heading into this season were mixed with some notes emphasizing his physicality as potentially detrimental. He’s put those concerns to rest while display above average plate discipline with plenty of blistering contact. Presently, he makes a lot of hard, low-angle, pulled contact. He has time to make adjustments to unlock either a more balanced or more power-centric approach.
Dominguez comes with substantial bust risk so any acquiring team should make sure they feel confident about their development staff.
Colton Cowser, 22, OF, BAL (AA)
(A+) 278 PA, 4 HR, 16 SB, .258/.385/.410
(AA) 98 PA, 7 HR, 1 SB, .324/.480/.689
Cowser is a personal favorite of mine. He has fantastic discipline, a better-than-average swinging strike rate, and a batted ball profile maxed out for high BABIPs. In short, he is the ideal leadoff hitter. His game is a little bit like Alek Thomas – if the DBacks outfielder took a lot more pitches. While an adjustment isn’t strictly necessary, Cowser could probably stand to swing more often. Adding in a little bit loft wouldn’t hurt either. There are a lot of directions this profile can go, and most of them yield some type of really useful ballplayer. To reach a superstar ceiling, he’ll have to take bold risks regarding his approach and mechanics.
Depending on who you talk to, Cowser is the Orioles third- or fourth-best prospect. With their surprise contention, the front office is undoubtedly kicking around ideas. From the perspective of continued employment, it’s safer for Mike Elias to stay the course. If they do spend prospects on reinforcements, they’ll likely either be from the bargain bin or club-controlled for a long period. In the latter scenario, some of their better names like Cowser, Coby Mayo, and Jordan Westburg will need to be in play.
Joey Wiemer, 23, OF, MIL (AA)
364 PA, 15 HR, 24 SB, .243/.321/.446
Wiemer has the look and the size of the notable prospect. At times, he puts up video game numbers as he did in High-A last season. Opinions are divided. Some scouts I spoke with last fall weren’t enamored with his playing style, believing he’d fade into a role player as he advanced through the system. Unaffiliated scouts who are plugged more into the fantasy baseball scene love his combination of power and aggression on the basepaths.
As reported earlier today, the Brewers are looking for mid-tier upgrades like Ramon Laureano. While the club would undoubtedly prefer to hold onto one of their few top prospects, they have one of the weaker farm systems behind Chourio. Their list of attractive trade assets might not extend much beyond Wiemer, Sal Frelick, and Ethan Small.
Five More
Kyle Harrison, SFG (20): In his latest outing – his first appearance since July 8 – Harrison fanned nine of 10 batters faced. It was a masterful performance. The soon-to-be 21-year-old is ready for the next challenge.
Oswald Peraza, NYY (22): With the Yankees eyeballing a late-October run, one of their young shortstops is probably going to wind up joining another club. While Peraza isn’t as impressive as Anthony Volpe, he still profiles as a future above average shortstop. He’s hit 13 home runs with 24 steals and a .258/.329/.446 triple-slash in 319 Triple-A plate appearances.
Royce Lewis, MIN (23): Lewis showed signs of a breakout in the spring of 2021 before missing the entire season. Then, after showing well in Triple-A and a 41 plate appearance stint in the Majors, he again suffered a season-ending injury. The Twins undoubtedly don’t want to sell Lewis. They stuck it out with Byron Buxton so it’s not as if they’re averse to players with the “injury prone” label. If they’re thirsty enough, he’s a highly valuable prospect who happens to be incapable of helping them contend this season.
Michael Busch, LAD (24): A Busch trade is beginning to feel inevitable. The oldest player featured today, Busch is having a decent but unspectacular campaign at Triple-A. He’s on a tear this month, batting .310/.384/.529 in July (125 wRC+). Since he looks like someone who might need awhile to adjust in the Majors, the Dodgers might prefer to skip that portion of his development by cashing out.
Ricky Tiedemann, TOR, (19): A youthful southpaw who has chewed through the competition, Tiedemann might just be the Blue Jays most sellable prospect. He has a bright and promising future after already succeeding in High-A as a teenager. However, TINSTAAPP applies, and the Jays current contention window may well be closed by the time Tiedemann is big league ready.
Mets won’t move Baty. Not for any of those names. More likely to see Vientos or Mauricio move in trade. Baty is their future 3B in NY. I wouldn’t be surprised if they hold onto Vientos and keep him at DH. 22 years old and 162 game pace for about 40 HRs for second straight year. Now I’m AAA. They’ve been using him at DH the past few weeks which indicates their thinking. If they do move Vientos, probably to Boston in a package for JD or possibly Vasquez.
In*
Problem is you may not get the help you want or need without trading him
I guess we couch GM’s will see what happens in the next few days
Only two names I feel they’d Include Baty for are Ohtani and Soto and they won’t land either. Escobar was never the long term solution, but his inconsistency makes it clear that Baty is 1b behind Alvarez. They’re different than even last year in being calculated with their moves. Feels very analytical as opposed to desperate. They don’t need much besides some BP help, possible DH, and a rental at C. Some of those answers may be internally. None of those options out there are going to require Baty. It’ll be Mauricio or Vientos (if they don’t make him DH and decide to go external to fill that hole)
So are you willing to give a shot at a WS ring hinged on a guy who hasnt done anything past AA?
Theres a reason why they are called Prospects
Contreras/Robertson/ Happ/Robertson give Mets a better chance at a Ship than Baty sitting in AA
Do that a couple times and you have no farm system to speak of and you’re only chance to contend every year is overpaying for aging and underwhelming free agents
Again, they won’t trade Baty. It won’t take Baty to get Contreras if they do. You can bank on that. The Mets have other prospects that the Cubs want too. If Contreras had controllable years, sure. But he doesn’t. They also have Alvarez in AAA so they’re not going to be Neanderthals and make that move. Glad you don’t run the team LOL. They also have a 3 year window to win. Baty will be up by then. They don’t need to lose Baty for a need that isn’t THAT much of a need. Watch the Mets more before trying to talk like you understand how they operate now and what their goals are.
Love Baty. Got to see him play. A cool customer. Great plate discipline. I hear ya @Wolf_Kissed95, shocked if he gets moved.
Dig deeper in the Mets Farm down to Brooklyn High A for OF Alex Ramirez.
He is more desirable than others mentioned.
Baty reminds me of Gregg Jefferies.
“Dominguez comes with substantial bust risk”
But he’s not even available as part of ANY trade according to the very smart GMs in the MLBTR comment section!
Show your work on that baseless claim. Or are you just whining?
Don’t be cranky, Joe from the Bronx… it’s a shot at the ridiculous trade proposals you Yankee guys throw around. You obviously aren’t paying attention – better go back to yelling at those kids to get off your lawn.
Yep, you’re just whining. Carry on.
Not ANY trade, just most.
@You Can Put It In The Books- if Dominguez is offered in a trade for Soto and the Nats don’t accept it they will definitely regret it. Dominguez is one of the best top prospects in the game today. He’s flat out toolsy. Your comments show your hatred for the Yankees, and that’s all they show. Hopefully the Nats take the best trade package that’s offered, they deserve that for themselves and for their fans. It’s what the Nationals want. Not what you or I want.
As a second piece maybe. He’s stock is surely down from signing though. Which was inevitable when the #1 international prospect ends up in NY or LA.
He’s a very good prospect a little higher than 38 imo but not a centerpiece for an ohtani or soto
Watching Dominguez’ plate patience rapidly improve has been eye-opening: from a 3:1 K:B ratio to walking more than striking out!
I have a feeling both Peraza and Busch are going to get traded at the deadline. Yankees include Peraza in a deal for a SP and Busch goes in with a trade for a higher-tier player the Dodgers want.
The Dodgers are most likely losing 2 infield starters after this year. Unless they make a blockbuster trade, they are holding onto Busch. I don’t see that front office emptying their minors for one player. My money is on them making minor trades or non at all. The new playoff format is going to inflate the price of players traded at the deadline.
Terrible take on the Mets stuff. Zero chance Baty is traded for Castillo, Montas, or Murphy. Literally zero. Only top prospect they have that might be moved for one of those guys is Mauricio.
The Mets traded Pete Crow-Armstrong for a few months of Javier Baez, and that was after saying they wouldn’t trade him. Not enough track record with Cohen’s ownership to say for sure who they will or won’t trade.
If Mets get Contreras and Robertson or Happ (extra yr control) and Robertson you bet your ass they are asking for Baty in Return
Cubs minors are loaded with OF and this yrs draft they used all but 1 pick on P’s
They have Hoerner locked in at SS or 2B
They should sign 1 of the BIG name FA SS this Offseason which leaves 3B,1B and C as positions of need
@junior
so, just everything else.
Brewers farm system is not that weak. Not sure what this analyst is looking at. Its not Top-10, but its not weak
Great organization and run very well. Draft is a weak point though. There system is pretty weak and lopsided. Weimers got bust wrote all over him.
TINSTAAPP? You had me following and interested in the story until you went ahead and used an acronym which you had never spelled out before in the story and assumed everyone would know. Not a good piece of writing to make an assumption like that. Please explain.
There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect (TINSTAAPP).
It’s a very common term in baseball analytics and has been for some time, often humorous and painful at the same time. That aside, I agree that on a site like MLBTR it should be explained. I’m used to seeing it on sited like BP or Fangraphs, but not on MLBTR.
thanks LordDgg for the explanation.
Please put words to tinstaapp. Don’t assume everyone knows what you mean when you haven’t explained it in the story.
Don’t trade Wiemer for Luareano.
Luareano isn’t postseason eligible either so the Brewers would go back to Taylor in center for the playoffs.
Thats not true. He wasn’t eligible in 2021. He is this year
Nice info on how the hitters hit and how the pitchers are pitching – what pitches they throw, how fast. etc.
I’ve been watching a lot of the Orioles the past month. I keeps writing they’re the most impressive young team I’ve seen since the 2013 Royals. Can’t see an Orioles game without noticing a few plays that young players in MLB today seldom do. From the other day:
Mountcastle on 1B with runner on 2B, one out. Grounder to Choi (Rays) – like Mountcastle a RH throwing 1B. Choi was holding Mountcastle on of course. When the ball was hit Mountcastle could see as he ran to 2B that Choi stepped forward to catch a grounder and knew he would have to pivot as a RH thrower throw in a lane to Mountcastle’s left. Mountcastle ran in the center of the baseline and watched the SS’s eyes that was standing on 2B waiting for the throw. When he saw the 2B reacting that the throw had been made, Mountcastle started running 18 or so inches to his left – still in the baseline. He knew cut off the lane Choi threw in. The ball hit Mountcastle in the upper leg and caromed out to short left-center field. So instead of a double play and getting out of the inning, the runner from 2B scored, and Mountcastle was in scoring position on 2B with one out.
Now I realize that things like this can’t be written in an article where a young player is evaluated on his stats. But it might be nice to know if he’s displayed some baseball IQ on the field. If he’s a pitcher, can he grind it out on a day when his stuff isn’t working well? Is he a player that recognizes the game situation and does what he can to help his team?
I defy anyone to watch 2 games the Orioles play and not recognize that their team of almost total youngsters seldom make mistakes, and wen they do they don’t compound them by trying to compensate. I never read anything about their players knowing how to play winning baseball when I read how they were progressing through the minors in in the majors.
Edit was shut off. Sorry for the grammatical mistakes.
They are great to watch, next year could be a top team.
theve done what they done without, Means and GRod the 2 top pitchers expected for this year
As a Met fan I find Baty to be the one guy I wouldn’t want to trade. He reminds me of David Wright. Parada makes Alvarez far more easy to see go than Baty to me. I’m just one guy but Baty is the real deal in my opinion. His past two months have shown significant growth at the plate.
I agree. If he’s offered as centerpiece for Castillo reds should jump on him
I would not trade either Baty or Alvarez. You’ve made good points about Baty, but Alvarez is too great of a hitter to trade, imo. If he can get up to even average defense behind the plate, he’s going to be something special.
“Dominguez comes with substantial bust risk so any acquiring team should make sure they feel confident about their development staff.”
Please explain this “substantial bust risk” and how it exceeds what might be expected of any 19-year-old prospect.
I’m assuming due to SSS in high A ball which applies to just about all players in the low minors. He also doesn’t have any track record of high school ball. Not a great scouting writeup nonetheless.
What does SSS stand for? I’m not familiar with that one.
Small sample size. No H.S. history isn’t relevant to me either. The fact that he’s 19 in high A ball says enough for me.
I don’t think the lack of high school ball is all that relevant:
“Excelling as a catcher, a shortstop and an outfielder, Dominguez has been part of the Dominican baseball machine since age 8, working with different academies before he signed on with noted buscone Ivan Noboa at age 13. All of that was to prepare him for the day — July 2, 2019 — when the then–16-year-old would be eligible to sign with a Major League organization.”
mlb.com/news/jasson-dominguez-is-ready-for-liftoff
Any player who’s never played AA or higher comes with substantial risk. That said – JD walks enough and his K rate is high due to being young in league he’s playing in.
“Substantial” is a bit of an overstatement
I know there are a lot of baseball card investors that are REALLY hoping Jasson Dominguez does NOT get traded this week. Some of his first autographs sold for BIG BUCKS in the hopes that he will be the next Yankees superstar. But if he ends up in Cincinnati or Washington or Anaheim or just about anywhere else really, those BIG BUCKS will dry up quickly. Yankees autograph collectors are much bigger spenders than just about every other team’s collectors COMBINED.
Baty is going nowhere and certainly not for the likes of Sean Murphy or Montas, maybe for Castillo in a package involving another Reds bat but even then highly doubtful. Plus the Mets are still suffering from seller’s remorse about Pete Crow-Armstrong so they aren’t going to trade a top 5 prospect not named Mauricio (and possibly not even him).
You are right dlw but it’s the A’s who wouldn’t take just Baty for Murphy it would require more then that.
When do the Mets bring Baty up if they hang onto him? Escobar is a fine glove and a professional bat, but if Baty is ready he would certainly be an improvement.
Baty is still in AA. Vientos is currently blocking him at AAA, but I would imagine Vientos will be in the majors after the trade deadline if he’s not traded. At which point, Baty will probably get promoted to AAA. I would not expect to see Baty in the majors until next season.
Big time trade brewing. Bogaerts, Devers (provided Devers comes to an agreement in principle by end of weekend) and Brazier to Dodgers with Gonzo, Betts going other way; Bell also to Boston in exchange for two top Dodgers prospects to the Nationals, one being Miller
This is sarcasm, right? The Red Sox aren’t trading for Betts after trading him away to avoid giving him the big contract LA gave him.
Bogaerts, Devers (provided Devers comes to an agreement in principle by end of weekend) and Brazier to Dodgers with Gonzo, Betts going other way; Bell also to Boston in exchange for two top Dodgers prospects to the Nationals. Miller one
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Speaking of Dominguez, the Mets Alex Ramirez is also only 19 and putting up identical numbers to Dominguez in the same leagues. He’s also a better defender and is not maxed out physically as he is 6’3″ and still has a good 15 lbs of muscle to add. He is seriously tooled up and putting things together rapidly.
The Mets system is quietly getting pretty good and pretty deep.