The old saw that states “you can never have enough pitching” gets bandied about a lot at this time of year. With the trade deadline now three weeks away, just about every contender is looking to bolster its staff by adding an arm or two. Even the Yankees, who have managed to keep their five starters healthy enough to make 15 starts each so far, are in the Luis Castillo bidding.
Naturally, there’s been much attention on Castillo, along with his teammate Tyler Mahle and Oakland’s Frankie Montas. All three of them have been in trade rumors for a long time as their respective clubs have been paring back payroll. With Mahle and Montas both dealing with minor injuries, Castillo has understandably become the primary target, with the Cardinals, Mariners, Dodgers, Twins, Padres, Mets, Yankees and Blue Jays all having been publicly connected to his market in recent days. But even if the Reds do pull the trigger on a deal, only one of these teams will get the headline-grabbing prize, leaving the rest to turn to other options.
For teams that fall short on Castillo or the other big names, they might want to consider calling Kansas City about 26-year-old Brad Keller (turning 27 in a couple of weeks). He hasn’t been the subject of any trade rumors thus far, but he came in at #43 on MLBTR’s list of top trade candidates. While he won’t be able to offer the same kind of ace-like upside, what he can provide is fairly reliable outcomes.
Nabbed by the Royals from the Diamondbacks in the 2017 Rule 5 draft (actually selected by the Reds and promptly traded to KC), Keller has been a mainstay of their pitching staff over the past 4 1/2 seasons. He doesn’t have overwhelming strikeout numbers, but generally avoids barrels and gets ground balls in order to consistently put up solid numbers. He’s appeared in 121 career games, throwing 591 2/3 frames with a 4.03 ERA. His career strikeout rate of 17.4% is a few ticks below average, which is 21.4% for starting pitchers this year. His 9.2% walk rate is a bit above this year’s 7.7% rate among starters. Then his 51.1% ground ball rate is well above the customary average range, which is at 42.6% this season.
Those numbers for Keller have also been fairly consistent year-over-year, with his strikeout rate always falling between 16.3% and 19.6%, his walk rate between 7.8% and 10.4%, with his grounder rate between 47.8% and 54.4%. But as a ground ball pitcher, the one thing that’s not consistent is BABIP, or batting average on balls in play. Strikeout pitchers naturally have more control of their outcomes as they aren’t reliant on batted balls finding gloves and being fielded cleanly. A pitcher like Keller can be helped or harmed by randomness in this regard. For instance, in 2020, Keller’s BABIP dropped to .233, about 50 points below his previous seasons. That led to a career-best 2.47 ERA that year. However, the wheel of fortune spun him round the other way in 2021, as his BABIP shot up to .347 and took his ERA to 5.39.
It doesn’t seem like the BABIP gods can fully explain Keller’s poor 2021 season, as his barrel rate also increased. After limiting barrels to rates between 3.7 and 5.9% in his first three campaigns, it jumped to 10.9% last year. Keller has evened out here in 2022, though, with a .275 BABIP, 5.5% barrel rate and 4.15 ERA, all very close to his career norms. It’s also possible that he could improve on these numbers with a change of scenery to a team with better defense, depending on which advanced metric you prefer. The Royals as a team have -19 Defensive Runs Saved, 26th in the majors, though Outs Above Average has them 13th and Ultimate Zone Rating 6th.
Guys with fairly reliable ERAs just north of 4.00 maybe aren’t as exciting as the 2.92 that Luis Castillo currently owns, but they have the potential to be important pickups nonetheless. It’s worth remembering that while Max Scherzer and Jose Berrios got the headlines last year, the Cardinals were able to pick up veterans Jon Lester and J.A. Happ, who stabilized their rotation and helped the club surge into the postseason.
Financially speaking, Keller is making $4.825MM this year and can be controlled for one more season via arbitration. Once the deadline rolls around, there will be less than $2MM of that to be paid out, making him an easy fit on just about every team’s budget. Of course, the Royals might want to hang onto him for the same reasons, especially considering their young starters have mostly disappointed this year. Of their pitchers that have made more than one start this year, Keller’s 4.15 ERA is actually the lowest among them, followed by Brady Singer’s 4.25 and Zack Greinke’s 4.52. With Greinke a free agent at season’s end, a Keller trade would leave the club with a lot of work to do on their rotation in the offseason.
General manager J.J. Picollo spoke to Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star in the wake of yesterday’s Drew Waters trade and also spoke about the upcoming deadline. “We don’t feel the extreme need that we have to move any players,” he said. “We feel like we’re in a good spot. We know where the interest lies from other teams right now. Now, it’s a matter of them assessing how willing they are.” Based on those comments, it doesn’t seem like they’re planning any kind of drastic selloff. After all, they have been trying to compete in the past couple of seasons, just without success thus far. But with a 34-52 record that has them in the AL Central basement, they could perhaps extract more value from a prospect or two that can help them further into the future than an innings eater that’s approaching the open market.
If they are willing to consider a deal, they should get plenty of interest. The aforementioned Cardinals could look to Keller, like they looked to Lester and Happ last year. Their strong defense should work well with Keller’s ground ball approach and they will be without Jack Flaherty for the next couple of months. The Yankees already have strong upside in their rotation but might want a steady arm to make spot starts, allowing them to control the workloads of their front five and keep them healthy. They’re also leading the league in Defensive Runs Saved this year, making them a solid fit for a contact pitcher. The Giants are two games out of a playoff spot and might not want to give up big prospects to chase a Wild Card, but they could grab Keller to make up for the loss of Anthony DeSclafani and hope to stay in the race. The Blue Jays have a lopsided rotation with Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah at the front, but questions at the back due to the injury to Hyun Jin Ryu and struggles of Yusei Kikuchi. The Brewers are in a similar situation, with Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff at the front, but injuries to Freddy Peralta and Adrian Houser forcing them to lean on their depth for the back end. Ditto for the Phillies who have Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler at the front but have Ranger Suarez and Zach Eflin on the IL. The Twins, Red Sox and Rays have all put starters on the IL in the past week or so, and more injuries are sure to pop up around the league in the weeks to come.
As mentioned, the Cardinals patched holes with Lester and Happ last year and went 22-7 in September. The Braves added Eddie Rosario, Jorge Soler, Joc Pederson and Adam Duvall when they were below .500 but ended up winning the World Series. Keller alone isn’t likely to turn a team’s entire season around, but he’s a decent puzzle piece that could fit in a number of places. Making a splash at the deadline is great fun, but it can sometimes be the little additions that make the biggest difference.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
sean-11
Lol try and find a less flattering picture next time
Dumpster Divin Theo
Prolly the best they could find. He’s a bit of a redass.
GareBear
As a Royals fan, I love Keller. But this looks like every photo ever taken of him
RoyalsFanAmongWolves
It’s likely a stock photo
Louholtz22
If I were the Rangers, I would tell Martin Perez that we want you back. Pick the team you want to go to and will sign you next year. I don’t think Keller or Mahle are really getting any team over the hump
jimthegoat
You can’t have any formal agreement that the player will come back as that would constitute tampering. And no team trades a player to a team he wants to be traded to unless he has no-trade protection.
Louholtz22
They’ll go through Seager. Mob related or Trump
Dumpster Divin Theo
Chapman says hi
Mi Casas es tu Casas
No Chapman says Hola and he’s not a breakfast taco.
Cosmo2
Re-signing with a team after a trade doesn’t mean an agreement was in place before hand. It’s completely forbidden and would be an incredibly risky thing to try.
dixoncayne
Don’t be so formal
chiefnocahoma1
But you think Martin Perez will?
Captain Judge99
@Louholtz22- if I was Marty Perez I definitely wouldn’t want to back to the Rangers, of all places. Anywhere but there. I would trade for Keller or Mahle depending on the cost for sure. Might need to give some of my starters a rest during the playoff drive. I would think one of these pitchers could be had for a mid level prospect 15-30 on a team’s prospect list.
GareBear
Know the Royals, they would probably take 1-2 guys in the 20-30 range and a lottery ticket. Sad but true
Hubert
Neither Keller, Montas or Mahle would be an upgrade in terms of what the Cardinals currently have available. They won’t go after Castillo because the Reds won’t trade within the division, and he would be too expensive in terms of prospects.
YourDreamGM
Reds aren’t too bright then. Nothing better than depleting your competitions farm system.
chiefnocahoma1
Not Liberatore or Pallante? That seem like a championship rotation?
phantomofdb
The click bait article headlines have to go. We aren’t here for surprise celebrity gossip style writing.
YourDreamGM
Yet they got you with it.
phantomofdb
I clicked to comment that. I guarantee you I won’t stick around if that’s the direction this site goes
Cosmo2
If this is getting you in a tizzy you won’t be missed.
compassrose
Dam another guy who will leave if the writers don’t do what he wants. I hope the site can handle losing him.
Poster formerly known as . . .
“We aren’t here for surprise celebrity gossip style writing.”
Care to elaborate on what constitutes that in the article above?
GareBear
Are you talking about the well written article which answers the question asked at the onset of the article and in the headline?
Don’t be a clown, they report on transaction in a matter of fact way which I appreciate but supplement the site with great articles. If you only want transactions you can filter through, but the group who runs this app work hard to bring content to inform their reader base leading up to the deadline and Keller is legitimately an interesting option that is not being talked about by most outlets. So go back to ESPN with your garbage opinions.
The Einheri
THE TOP TEN UNDER-THE-RADAR TRADE PITCHING CANDIDATES: #7 will cause you to lose your feces!
nottinghamforest13
Exactly. It’s a very hacky way of writing and enticing readers.
dirkg
Angel fan officials have already started contacting teams letting them know that our starting owner, Arturo Moreno, is on the trading block.
stymeedone
Won’t you be thrilled when Pittsburgh sends you back Nutting in the deal!
HalosHeavenJJ
Ha ha.
Arte spending foolishly ensures we won’t win but will have guys like Trout to watch.
Nutting’s goal is to pocket as much revenue sharing money as possible.
Two different kinds of suck but I’ll take Arte here.
GarryHarris
PIT is building a good team.
IHLgulls
All of whom will be traded to the Yankees soon
Captain Judge99
@IHLgulls- I hope not after seeing the asking price of Castillo. I am curious about the asking price of the other starters though, they might be worth a look for a contending team. Not sure.
MLB-1971
Yankees Cinderella story may be ready to hit midnight as some of their journeyman players revert to the mean.
Samuel
The best thing about Keller is that he might be able to flourish if he gets out of KC. Their pitching coaches and managers have pretty much mishandled their pitchers for years now. Keller’s best overall year was his first with them.
A team with a record for reworking pitchers may find him to be terrific trade acquisition – although the results in 2022 may be minimal as he makes adjustments, but could be huge in 2023. Look at how well Jakob Junis was pitching for the Giants before he got hurt (4-1, 2.63 ERA) – and the Giants excel at fixing pitchers…as do the Astros, Dodgers, Rays, Brewers, now Orioles and others.
RoyalsFanAmongWolves
Yeah Cal Eldred is terrible! I think he’s worse than Dave Eiland and Dave Eiland got fired by the Mets After the Royals let him go.
GareBear
Never though I would miss the Dave Eiland days
HalosHeavenJJ
Even non contenders should look into him. I’d love to bring him here.
usafcop
Strange how the article says the Blue Jays have a lopsided rotation without mentioning Berrios….
With him they have 3 studs which is more than most teams have….
Lopsided a bit yes but most teams 4th and 5th starters aren’t very good….
GarryHarris
Every time I watch a Jays game the defense lets them down. They can out hit their way out of it but mostly it’s their demise.
bravesfan
Keller should have been part of the deal the Braves just made with KC. It should have been him alone without the draft pick. If the Braves wanted that pick so bad, then throw in an additional prospect or something. He fits a need, especially considering Anderson’s struggles, and I feel like we have up way to much for 1 draft pick. Regardless, Keller would be nice to have
RunDMC
A good GM will be able to get more for Keller in this market. But also, ATL has a rotation of Fried, Morton, Ian Anderson, Kyle Wright, Strider with now-top prospect LHP Kyle Muller at AAA, Ynoa at AAA, Soroka on the mend and Bryce Elder possibly a Sept call-up. Sure, you always need pitching, but there’s more of a need to fill now gaping holes on the farm, while also doing it with picks they normally capitalize on. Yes, Ian has struggled, but look at that postseason record — he’s rounding into form.
And yes, they gained 1 pick, but more importantly, they gained over $2.2M in slot money that now makes them the 10th highest purse, which they’ll go overslot on multiple guys in later rounds, much like they did with Strider (rd. 4) and Elder (rd. 5) in 2020. It’s not about just 1 pick.
ukpadre
Padres aren’t interested. They can’t afford him (no luxury cap room) and they don’t really need him as they already have too many arms. The only way they get involved in bidding is to drive up the price for others, IMO.
ukpadre
Interested in Castillo I mean.
JimmyForum
A rich team could afford Miles Mikolas and plug him into the 4 or 5 to eat some innings. Obviously he’s not a top three on any team and will most likely be left of the acquiring teams playoff roster, but his value is low and may be worth a low level prospect
Cosmo2
What am I missing here? Mikolas is having a great season. Is this an attempt at sarcasm?
Win Cor
Give me a break. Miles almost looks like a Cy Young pitcher this year…
Captain Judge99
@ukpadre- are you really sure about that? Have you seen the absurd asking price for Luis Castillo? I would definitely stay away. Is he worth MacKenzie Gore, Robert Hassell and Luis Campusano? Smh. No way in hell!
nottinghamforest13
This style of headline is a complete turnoff. Tell us what you’re writing about in an articulate manner just as the site has done for many years. Do not stoop to the urge to promote “This 45 year old couldn’t believe what happened when she unlocked her car in the morning.”
RoyalsFanAmongWolves
Trade him to Atlanta! he’s from Georgia and I think he grew up a Braves fan it would be like coming home for him. Ask for Spencer Schwellenbach, #7 prospect, Who won’t be able to Pitch in the minors till 2023 anyway because he had Tommy John.
cubsmetsbrewers
Yeah Keller is a great name
Win Cor
So, now Mo is looked as a genius now while he was laughed at in last years trade deadline. Go figure. Maybe the Cardinals will do it again.
Cosmo2
That’s baseball, Suzyn
notnamed
what saw? or, as the new englanders would say, what sawr? i think you meant, saying. marmol said cardinal pitchers weren’t missing bats. i guess he forgot the cardinals were built around defense.
notnamed
st. louis would be better off trading jack the ass