Click here to read a transcript of Tuesday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
By Steve Adams | at
Click here to read a transcript of Tuesday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
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Dansby Swanson could be the steal of the free agent market. He’s no superstar but he should make way less than Boegarts, Turner or Correa. Those guys are much better players but I wouldn’t be surprised if they each get paid almost 10 times what Swanson gets. I would almost rather have Swanson as long as it saves me financial flexibility by not handing out an albatross contract those other 3 shortstops will require. Not to mention, Boegarts isn’t even really a shortstop so he shouldn’t be in the discussion. He’s only wanted for his bat so any teams who actually specifically need a shortstop would be better off looking elsewhere. Boegarts would be better for a team who already has a shortstop and needs a slugging 2nd baseman.
This sounds like Javy Baez 2.0. Swanson might be more value than other exorbitant contracts, but I wouldn’t want to be the one paying him 9 digits. Will be interesting to see how he adjusts outside the confines of home where those view him with rose-tinted glasses. Up until this year, Dansby has had only one better-than-average (per OPS+) offensive season, and that was 2020 (111 OPS+). He’s become more reliable defensively, but still not one of the best in the league. Glad he’s finally coming into his own, but I wish money wasn’t the greatest motivator.
Run… I think there is pretty close to a 0% chance Swanson gets paid 9 digits. I would be shocked if he gets $80 million. The other players are definitely better but they are all in line for $200+ million. I’m not sure they are 2 or 3 times as valuable as Swanson. If Swanson does get 9 digits then the team that pays him that is not smart. I think a 3-year $60 million deal should be a no brainer to take for Swanson especially since he is going to have draft compensation attached. He might even be better off just accepting the one year QO if he can repeat his performance or get better. That way teams won’t be as hesitant to pay him long term. I agree with you though. No way any team should pay Swanson $100+ million even if they do need a shortstop. The worst case scenario is you get a stopgap and save $99 million in the process until a better shortstop comes along. MLBTR has Swanson ranked below many players who won’t receive 9 digit contracts so there is no reason he should. They go off total contract value. It just seems like he might because all of the 3 shortstops ranked above him definitely will get $200+ million each. Swanson shouldn’t and won’t get even half that. I love Correa and Turner but Swanson will be much cheaper. I don’t care about Boegarts defensive improvements “this year.” If you want a long term shortstop, you don’t sign Boegarts. If you want a long term infield bat, you pay Boegarts out the wazoo. Boegarts is very valuable but he is not a long term answer at shortstop. He isn’t even the best defensive starting caliber shortstop on his own team. Pay him a ton to be a 2nd or third baseman or transition to 2nd or third when your top SS prospect is ready. Don’t sign Boegarts to be the only long term answer at shortstop in your farm system.
I’m glad you changed from the other shortstops getting “almost 10 times what Swanson gets” to Swanson “won’t get even half that.” It’s not like any of the big three shortstops will get a $600M-$800M contract, and Swanson’s not going to settle for $20M.
Bogey is actually having a good year defensively at shortstop and based on what he is doing this year he is most certainly a shortstop. He might not have the most range but has sure hands and a strong arm and makes all the plays he needs to, especially this year, to be an average defensive shortstop.
Bogaerts is not having a good year defensively. So far he hasn’t been bad, but a 0 OAA really isn’t good. And for defensive purposes 66 games is a miniscule sample. Looking at his track record over the last few seasons says he’s not a guy a team wants playing SS.
So Tad I guess Bogey is exactly average this year according to oaa isn’t he that’s exactly what I said. Other defensive metrics are more favorable to his defense and the eye test watching literally every game says he is having a good year defensively.
Xander gets a lot of hate at SS but he’s not that terrible at the position. Same with Devers at 3B, he’s improved dramatically over the past few years defensively.
Swanson is a solid option but is not the offensive player Baez is. I don’t see Swanson getting a $100 million dollar deal unless it’s for five or six years
Rsox – Not only is Xander not that terrible, he’s not terrible at all. He’s average, not great but also not terrible. Just average. And there’s no doubt in my mind there will be teams willing to give him a huge contract to play SS. It’s not necessary to have a good glove at every position.
You’re kidding yourself if you think Bogaerts isn’t terrible. The numbers are clear, he is terrible. -53 DRS for his career. -16 DRS since 2019.
Ever since Statcast started keeping track of the OAA stat in 2016, Bogaerts ranks 4oth with a -39. Only Didi Gregorius is ranked worse.
Swanson won’t get a $100 million deal. Nor should he. Xander might have worked his way up to around average so far this season. He is going to receive a long term contract though. There is no chance Xander stays an average defensive shortstop throughout the length of that long term contract. Any team that signs him has to know they will move him off the shortstop position way before that contract is even half over. That’s the difference between him and Swanson or Correa. The team that signs Swanson or Correa knows for a fact they are signing a shortstop for every single year of the contract. They know they are not doing that with Boegarts.
Rsox;
I do think Bogarts has some shortcomings at SS. He would be best moving to 2B in 2023 when the shifts are outlawed. The 2B will have to cover more ground than today, and Xander will be a high-end 2B. His value is his bat – he’s simply of the the best hitters in MLB. Plus SS is the most stressful mental position to play behind Catcher. The SS is in on every play when the ball is hit and a runner(s) is/are on base (cover a base, backup a base, cut-off man) as well as when the batted ball hits the ground in the OF with nobody on. Has to know the game situation, the runner(s) speed, etc. Xander is older, and his primary value to any team is his hitting. Playing SS wears on a player over the course of a season. He can back off on D some.
As for Devers – I’ve been stunned at his 3B play this year. This is reminiscent of Wade Boggs going from a great hitter but a liability at 3B to a Gold Glove 3B. Another case of a narrative that people that don’t watch games cling to. Devers has worked to make himself into an upper-tier MLB 3B, and is a true upper-level star.
Thank you, Samuel for recognizing Devers ascension into an above average 3rd baseman. I watch nearly every Red Sox game and you are 100% correct. His range has improved at 3rd base too, most of his error at 3rd are due to making a lazy (bad) throw but he’s worked hard on that as well. He has made a couple of bad throws this season resulting in an error but he more than makes up for this by being a Hoover over at 3rd. His price keeps going up for Boston; they should have signed him last year. Given that he’ll only be 27 walking into his free agent season, Devers and his agent will be looking for a 10 year deal at max dollars. I’m thinking 10/$350M is what he’ll be asking for and he’s probably worth that in today’s market.
Devers range has never been in question he is athletic and covers a lot of ground it was simply can he cut down on the mental miscues. In the past he gets himself in trouble when he rushes on his throws and sometimes he boots routine grounders in the past. He has been much better on the mental miscues this years and his throws have been much more accurate I have even seen him eat the ball a few times when there is no chance which he didn’t do before. He seems to be maturing at defense as well as becoming one of the most dangerous hitters in all of baseball.