The Marlins are 7-3 over their past ten games, though the resulting 27-31 record still lands them 11 games out of first place in the National League East and 5.5 games back of a Wild Card spot. Starting pitching, as one would expect for a team with this type of rotation talent, has helped to drive the recent surge. Arguably the biggest catalyst in Miami’s recent surge, however, has been the first baseman/outfielder who’s carried the offense of late: Garrett Cooper. The Marlins recently placed Cooper on the Covid-19-related injured list, but he was hitting .500/.548/.714 through 31 plate appearances amid their recent uptick in play.
If Cooper’s production happened to be a complete anomaly, perhaps it wouldn’t bear much of a mention. Players go on hot streaks all the time, after all. But while Cooper can’t be expected to continue hitting .500 over any meaningful sample, the recent burst should help to shine a light on the fact that the 31-year-old is among the game’s most underrated bats and has been for some time now. Cooper’s sweltering June isn’t any sort of breakout from a slow start to the year; he entered the month hitting .277/.360/.426 and now, after a recent string of six consecutive multi-hit games, is up to .315/.389/.473 on the year.
By measure of wRC+, Cooper has been about 47% better than a league-average hitter so far in 2022 (after weighting for park and league) — his fourth year as a regular in the Marlins’ lineup and his fourth with above-average overall production. Cooper was a solid hitter back in 2019 (.281/.344/.446, 15 home runs, 111 wRC+), but that came in the juiced-ball season, making it easy to overlook the manner in which he established himself. Since that time, he’s maintained a solid walk rate while hitting for average and showing above-average power. The output has come during the shortened 2020 season and an injury-plagued 2021 campaign, which may have prevented it from getting the attention it should have, but Cooper has been one of baseball’s best hitters on a rate basis dating back to 2020.
In that time, Cooper ranks 20th among 265 big league hitters (min. 500 plate appearances) with a 138 wRC+. He’s hitting .295/.377/.476 during that stretch. Of the 19 hitters ranked above him, 17 are former All-Stars, with the exceptions being Kyle Tucker and Ty France — both likely (or at least deserving) 2022 All-Stars. The top 30 names on that leaderboard represent a veritable who’s who of baseball’s most notable bats, with Cooper quietly lumped into the middle of the group. However, it’s unlikely many would think of Cooper when trying to list off the game’s most productive hitters. He may not even be the first Marlin to spring to mind for most, not with Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s outstanding showing so far in 2022.
The lack of recognition for Cooper may not be that difficult to explain. He plays for a Marlins team that struggles to draw fans to the park and has just one winning season since 2010 (when they reached the expanded playoffs with a 31-29 record in the shortened 2020 campaign). Cooper hasn’t produced at this level over the course of a full big league season yet — though his production since 2020 has come over the life of 594 plate appearances, which is nearly a full year’s worth of reps. He also missed time with both a lumbar strain and an elbow sprain last year and has only appeared in 100 games in a season once.
It’s tempting, then, to wonder whether Cooper’s production is fluky in nature or attributable to small sample sizes. That doesn’t appear to be the case. The league-average exit velocities over the past three seasons have been 88.4 mph, 88.8 mph and 88.7 mph, respectively. Cooper, in that time, has posted respective exit velos of 90.1 mph, 91.1 mph and 91.6 mph. His 47.2% hard-hit rate (the percentage of batted balls at 95 mph or more) trounces the league average of 38.3%. He’s “barreled” 10.7% of his batted balls in that time, per Statcast — handily topping the 7.8% MLB average.
There’s a platoon split of note with regard to Cooper, but that’s not to say he is or should be considered a platoon player. Rather, it’s just that since 2020, the right-handed-hitting Cooper has been a very good hitter against fellow righties (.279/.370/.437) and one of the very best in the game against lefties (.336/.398/.575). He’s been a legitimate middle-of-the-order presence regardless of opponent.
Although Cooper has only connected on four home runs through 211 plate appearances so far this season, one could still argue that the 2022 campaign has been his best yet. This year’s 23.2% strikeout rate is the lowest of his career, and his 15 doubles are one off the career-high 16 he smacked in 2019 — in more than twice as many trips to the plate. Cooper is sporting a .403 batting average on balls in play this year, and while that’s sure to regress to an extent, there’s no reason it should be expected to plummet to the .288 league average. Cooper entered the year with a career .362 BABIP, and even though it’s fair to be skeptical he can sustain quite that level, a player with Cooper’s hard-contact profile should carry a BABIP considerably greater than that of the average hitter. Statcast pegs his “expected” batting average in 2022 at .301 — only 14 points lower than its current mark.
Meanwhile, only 10.8% of Cooper’s fly-balls have left the yard for homers this year — a mark well shy of the 21.6% rate at which he entered the season. His 2022 rate will likely begin to move closer to that career level, meaning his slugging can reasonably be expected to tick upward even as his average likely moves south.
At 6’5″ and 235 pounds, Cooper’s defensive options are limited to first base and the outfield corners. He’s rated poorly on the grass (-4 Defensive Runs Saved, -5 Outs Above Average in 615 career innings), but defensive metrics view Cooper as a sound, if unspectacular option at first (4 DRS, 5 OAA, 2.9 Ultimate Zone Rating in 1157 innings). With Jesus Aguilar also on the roster, Miami has given Cooper plenty of time at designated hitter, too.
Aguilar has a 2023 mutual option and will likely be a free agent at season’s end — mutual options are rarely exercised by both parties — which at least ostensibly opens the door for Cooper to step in as the everyday first baseman in 2023 That could happen even sooner, if Aguilar is moved on this summer’s trade market. Then again, Cooper himself figures to see his name pop up in trade rumblings, at least if the Marlins aren’t able to further close the gap in the Wild Card standings.
Cooper himself is only controlled through the 2023 season, and with his 32nd birthday looming in December, he’s something of a late bloomer relative to other big leaguers. The Marlins would surely love to keep his bat in the lineup now that they’ve turned more toward a win-now approach, but Cooper’s bat should be a coveted attribute this summer as contending clubs look to beef up their lineups. Because of the time missed due to injury, Cooper’s arbitration price hasn’t built up too extensively; he’s earning an eminently reasonable $2.5MM in 2022. That makes him affordable for any team, and the advent of the universal designated hitter will only further broaden Cooper’s market.
There’s no guarantee the Marlins will seriously entertain offers on Cooper — or on any of their veteran players, for that matter. They’re by no means completely out of the playoff picture, and with 10 of their next 13 games coming against divisional opponents (three in Philadelphia and seven against the Mets), they have a very immediate opportunity to climb the NL East ladder and make things more interesting.
A poor showing, however, will have the opposite effect and will only magnify the pressure to at least listen on some short-term veterans. And while rental bats like Josh Bell, Nelson Cruz, Willson Contreras, Trey Mancini and Andrew Benintendi will draw more headlines as the trade deadline looms, Cooper might draw more actual trade interest, given his affordable salary, extra year of club control and comparable (if not superior) production.
i remember this dude when he was on the yankees. It was only a blip, but he raked.
The Yankees back in 2017 picked up three 1B’man off the waiver wire or from some other team’s minor leagues as they were considered AAAA hitters. I didn’t think any of them would stick, but all three have played in the majors since. Choi, Cooper and Voit.
2017/2018. One can argue for one over the other. Choi would have provided a platoon lefty bat. Cooper more of a line drive hitter. Voit the more impactful hitter when healthy. I think I was more impressed in retrospect that they found three of them off the scrap heap (not quite) and they’re all still playing.
He can hit, but for such a big body, so little power. What’s up with that… lol
I think the same thing every time I watch heyward slap the ball on the ground to the second baseman. The guys natural body leverage should account for more home runs.
Puig was the same. One of the many reasons he was so infuriating as a player.
Sean Casey?
Big body, big average
High OBP?
I’ll take it every time, tired of all the strike outs
John Olerud comes to mind also
I liked Cooper when he was with the Yanks, but I knew he’d be traded. Cashman is obsessed with power hitters. Cooper would’ve been a nice contact hitting complement to the other power hitters they have/had.
I’ll take King in that deal every time.
I dont know about that. But thank you for making me go down the rabbit hole I just fell into. The Marlins pretty much turned Michael King alone into Cooper while indirectly also bringing them Jesus Luzardo. Not a bad deal for either side all these years later.
I’m sure both teams are happy with what they got in that deal. Cooper is raking with the Marlins and King looks like a shutdown arm. Plus the Marlins got Caleb Smith, who they got two solid years out of before trading him to the D-Backs for Marte, who then got them Jesus Luzardo. Wild how one seemingly small trade at the time can have such a ripple effect.
In my 1st job, I had to research the tax basis for sales of stocks. Usually these were inherited shares from parents, grandparents or older. And ultimately it was all because someone had decided to buy out a mom-and-pop shop that was swapped out 4-5x before becoming GE stock.
Kind of like Casey Kotchman became Mark Teixeira who became Mike Trout.
Is this a MLB rumors site or did I accidentally click onto Fangraphs?
Given the Marlins place in the standings, his age, and his performance; he’s a likely trade chip. It’s nice of them to start building awareness and narratives prior to the deadline.
Agreed, I don’t like MLBTR flailing at doing statistical analysis like they’re chasing a breaking ball. A few years ago they had some Connor guy churning out mediocre stats-based pieces but stopped. Now they’re back at it again, but they’re not even as good as those. I wonder if they’re hurting for readership.
Phillies killer, which is common for most Marlins players.
Meh. Let’s have a follow-up article when his .403 BABIP reverts to .340-.350.
Career .370 BABiP. He won’t maintain .403, but he does seem to be in the class of player who will maintain a higher BABiP. His career numbers indicate he can hit.
I saw that, but very few players can manage even a .350 BABIP. Only 13 of them over the last four years cumulative, and 2 have under 500 PAs (2020-2022).
At least for this season, just a change in approach will boost BABIP. There’s a shift, consciously try and hit everything to right field. When they stop shifting, go back to pulling the ball.
Super duper!!
Might have needed to proofread this. I don’t see La Tortuga mentioned anywhere in the article.
Sad part of it is both Cooper and Aguilar were with the Brewers at one time. Cooper has done nothing but hit no matter the level and team. The Brewers would never give him a shot because they do that with players all the time in there minors. It was a shame
Made worse by the fact that First Base has been a black hole for the Brewers since Prince Fielder left
Good trade by Marlins with the Yankees. Yankees got Michael King out o f it, but Cooper can hit. Reminds me a little bit of right-handed Nick Johnson–big guy, a little injury prone, a bit more power, definitely can make contact.
Loved nick johnson when he was with the Yankees. Had a good showing with the Nats too. Too bad he couldn’t stay healthy. The Yankees have had a lot of “what if” type guys at 1B that they traded away over the last couple decades.
Cooper is underrated. Yankees should’ve kept this guy
I appreciate him very much. He was there for me when the world became dark. His smile, his sincerity, and his kind words really forced me to make a change in my life. It was on a fishing trip in 2019 that he pulled a bass out of the lake and proclaimed that the fish was drawn to my aura. That although things were below the surface I had the ability to bring them up and I should use my talents for something other than handing towels to woman at the casino resort.
Shortly after our fishing adventure, we brought the catch into the local Burger King and asked them to cook it up for the whole restaurant, as the patrons looked desperate and quite honestly, unhygienic.
Mr Cooper, or Big G, as I call him will never be forgotten. To say he is unappreciated is insanely inaccurate and borders on gaslighting.
Unappreciated?? Lol! This dude can’t stay off the IL to save his life. I’ll take King all day every day. It doesn’t matter what Cooper can do with the bat because every season it’s the same thing with him he starts to rake then he gets hurt it’s a guarantee. The question is why bother talking about him even as a trade deadline guy because he’ll be on the IL again by that point he always is. In fact I believe he’s currently on the Covid IL I guess if you can’t get on the regular IL the Covid one will do just fine. I’m laughing reading all the wasted comments about his analytics like it matters. Is there an analytic for the IL? Like maybe how well he responds to treatment or how about time spent in the trainer’s room. Ice baths per week maybe? Time logged on the stimulus machine?
Seems like his injury issues really bother you dude…
Which doesnt make much sense as almost every single one of those injuries were freak accidents that couldn’t be avoided, and werent his fault
Your report is excellent. It’s about time Marlins pay this no longer young, good player a well-deserved rewarding extension contract (of at least $5M per year, like they pay Rojas) that is fair in comparison with the huge bad contracts they gave to Avi Garcia and Jorge Soler. A couple of years ago, they also very much disregarded Harold Ramirez, and look how good he’s doing with Tampa (batting close to .300).now.
No one appreciates you Garrett except me. Remember that.
Marlins as a team were 9th in wRC+ going into last week. They still have the positive run differential, but their bullpen cant hold a lead to save anyone’s life. Another 1 run loss today in brutal fashion. 16 1 run losses…