This year’s Aug. 2 trade deadline is just over seven weeks away, and while some names won’t become obvious candidates to move until five or even six weeks from now, others have been evident for more than a year. That’s more true of Cubs catcher Willson Contreras than arguably any player in baseball. There may not be a likelier player to get traded this summer, and the writing has been on the wall for quite some time. The Cubs looked like probable deadline sellers heading into the 2021 season, and Contreras’ fate looked clear when Chicago sold off Javier Baez, Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, among others. Some fans might’ve held out hope for an extension that would make Contreras the centerpiece of the next contending Cubs core, but no long-term deal came to fruition.
From both the player and team vantage point, Contreras’ current career year has come at the perfect time. He’s hitting .267/.394/.506 with 10 home runs, 10 doubles and a triple through 213 trips to the plate. By measure of wRC+, the only catcher who’s been more productive (min. 100 plate appearances) is Willson’s own brother, William, who is having a breakout campaign over in Atlanta. Willson’s 10 homers are tops among catchers, and he’s on pace for career-highs in several offensive categories. A pending free agent couldn’t ask for a much better walk year, and the Cubs have to be thrilled to see him producing like this at a time when league-wide catcher offense hasn’t been this bad since 2002.
Contreras has acknowledged that a trade appears to be his likely fate at this point, and it’s more a question of when and where than whether it’ll happen at all. Since a trade feels far likelier than not, let’s take some time and run through the possible landing spots for Contreras over the next several weeks.
Obvious Fits
Astros: The only team in Major League Baseball that has gotten worse production from behind the plate is the Orioles, who entered the year trying to lose and have since watched their top prospect struggle upon his initial call to the big leagues. Martin Maldonado has posted an awful .153/.225/.277 batting line, while backup Jason Castro has somehow been even worse at .102/.206/.136. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote this week that the Astros will likely stick with Maldonado despite the complete lack of offense, declining framing marks and increasingly frequent passed balls. The rationale appears to be that Maldonado’s leadership and game-planning skills are too valuable.
That piece, however, did not acknowledge the possibility that the Astros can still go ahead and acquire Contreras, pushing Maldonado to a backup role and jettisoning Castro from the roster. There’s no justification for a supposed World Series hopeful to trot out a pair of catchers that has combined to hit .141/.221/.241 this season. Houston has other needs, be they in center field or at first base where Yuli Gurriel’s bat has cratered, but Astros catchers have been 63% worse than league-average at the plate (by measure of wRC+). Whatever intangible value Maldonado may be providing with his game-planning, he’s giving a lot of it back at the dish. And, again, it’s eminently possible to keep Maldonado on the roster and still install Contreras as the everyday catcher.
Mets: James McCann hasn’t lived up to his four-year, $40.6MM contract in the first place, and he’s currently on the injured list for the foreseeable future owing to a fractured hamate bone that’ll sideline him into July. McCann should be back in action by the time the trade deadline rolls around, but he’s hitting just .196/.266/.286 on the season anyhow and hamate injuries can have lingering effects on a hitter’s production even after they’re cleared to return.
It’s in the Mets’ best interest to get McCann sorted out at some point, but they have two years left to figure that out (or to find a way to unload the contract). Backups Tomas Nido (.245/.277/.274) and Patrick Mazeika (.186/.205/.326) haven’t provided any offense whatsoever in McCann’s absence. Taking on Contreras pushes McCann to a backup role and deepens the lineup considerably — both this summer as the Braves continue to heat up and climb in the standings and in the postseason, when they’ll be facing off against better pitching than they see during the regular season.
Giants: Buster Posey abruptly retired following a resurgent 2021 season, and former No. 2 overall pick Joey Bart hasn’t been able to seize the opportunity as the Giants’ new starter just yet. Optioned to Triple-A last after hitting .156/.296/.300 through 108 plate appearances, Bart could still eventually sort things out and solidify himself as the Giants’ catcher of the future. For now, however, they’re relying on career backup Curt Casali and journeyman Austin Wynns, whom they acquired from the Phillies last week.
The Giants are a deep-pocketed club with a $162MM payroll that’s nowhere near their franchise record and an improved farm system. General manager Scott Harris, formerly an assistant general manager with the Cubs, is plenty familiar with Contreras and all he can bring to the table.
Payroll Concerns
Rays: Only a hair better than the Astros in terms of their overall production, Tampa Bay catchers are batting a combined .169/.195/.305 this season. Mike Zunino’s defense remains highly regarded, but he’s having the worst season of his career at the plate (.148/.195/.304). Backup Francisco Mejia has been a bit better at the plate but much worse behind it.
It’s an open question as to whether the Rays, whose current $83MM payroll sadly constitutes a franchise-record mark, would receive ownership support to take on Contreras and the remainder of his salary. The Cubs could perhaps be persuaded to include some cash to cover some or all of the salary, but doing so on their end would require the Rays to part with a steeper prospect package. The Rays, as always, have a deep system and could afford to make such a move. Perhaps they could sell the Cubs on taking back the remainder of the recently optioned Ryan Yarbrough’s $3.85MM salary to help balance things out a bit. (Chicago could certainly use some more pitching depth.) Specific names aside, there aren’t many more obvious fits for Contreras than Tampa Bay.
Padres: Austin Nola and Jorge Alfaro have combined to bat .239/.298/.326 while logging every inning for the Padres at catcher this season. San Diego has top catching prospect Luis Campusano hitting well in Triple-A, so perhaps the most straightforward path to an upgrade is simply to promote him to the big league roster.
That, paired with the fact that the Friars are just inches below the new $230MM luxury-tax threshold, makes them a tough fit. There’s a clear on-paper need for the Padres to improve their production behind the dish, but the also have needs in the outfield corners and/or at first base, and the bandwidth to take on Contreras doesn’t seem to be there. The Cubs aren’t going to take on Eric Hosmer or another weighty contract in a deal like this, and asking Chicago to pick up all of the remaining tab on Contreras would only up the price.
Guardians: Austin Hedges is one of the best defensive players in baseball, regardless of position … but one of the sport’s worst hitters as well. Maybe Cleveland simply wouldn’t be interested in displacing Hedges and his potential Gold Glove, but it’s hard to look at his .175/.233/.283 batting line and not wonder how the Guardians’ lineup would look upon swapping that out for Contreras and his aforementioned .267/.394/.506 slash. And, as with the Astros, the Guards could certainly keep Hedges as a defensive-minded backup, pushing Bryan Lavastida back to Triple-A and probably pushing Luke Maile off the roster.
Cleveland’s payroll is just under $70MM right now, and one would think that leaves more than enough room to add veterans at the deadline. But payroll has been a major issue in recent seasons, and it’s not clear whether they’ll be close enough to a playoff spot to make a move like this — or whether they’d be willing to part with long-term value for a rental who’d immediately be their second-highest-paid player.
Wait and See
Yankees: The Yankees have received surprising production from trade acquisition Jose Trevino, who’s batted .309/.356/.505 and already matched his career-high five home runs in just 104 plate appearances. Trevino came to the Yankees as a lifetime .245/.270/.364 hitter, however, so it’s fair to be a bit skeptical of his ability to sustain this pace. He’s not striking out much but also isn’t making much in the way of hard contact, either. The trade deadline is still six weeks out, and if Trevino regresses toward his career levels of production, then the Yankees figure to be in this market, particularly with Kyle Higashioka again struggling at the plate.
Mariners: Seattle was getting career-best production from Tom Murphy before he landed on the injured list with a dislocated shoulder. He’s since suffered a setback, and it’s not clear when he’ll be ready to return. Prospect Cal Raleigh is doing his best Zunino impression in place of Murphy, striking out in a third of his plate appearances while showing good power and strong defensive marks. Raleigh, 25, has a .168/.252/.411 batting line with seven long balls in 107 plate appearances. If he can find some more consistency and/or if Murphy can get on track for a return, the Mariners might not feel the need to make this type of move. Beyond that, the M’s have cooled after a hot start and are 4.5 games back from a Wild Card position and six games under .500. They’re close enough to act as buyers right now, but that outlook could change in the coming weeks.
Marlins: Miami hoped to have addressed its catching need this winter when acquiring Jacob Stallings, but he’s hitting .206/.271/.255 in his first season with the Fish. Even more problematic is the team’s overall performance against southpaws: an MLB-worst .205/.280/.315. The Marlins are a fringe contender at the moment and probably have bigger needs even if they were to make a push at the deadline.
Longer Shots
White Sox: The Sox are already paying Yasmani Grandal $18.25MM, and while the resulting .185/.294/.237 batting line can’t sit well with the organization, there’s no indication to this point that they’re prepared to take on a notable veteran like Contreras and push Grandal into the role of MLB’s highest-paid backup. It’d be interesting to see another chapter entered into the story of crosstown Chicago blockbusters, though. The Sox didn’t get what they were hoping for when acquiring Craig Kimbrel last summer, but the prior North Side/South Side swap sent Dylan Cease and Eloy Jimenez to the Sox for Jose Quintana.
Twins: Minnesota’s focus at the trade deadline is going to rightly be pitching help — both in the bullpen and in the rotation — but their catchers have been a middle-of-the-pack unit, at best. Gary Sanchez leads the team in plate appearances at designated hitter and has hit better as a DH than as a catcher. But the Twins feel he’s been better than his reputation with the glove, and they’ve used the DH spot as a means of giving several players off — including Byron Buxton. Sure, the lineup would be deeper and better with Contreras catching, Sanchez at DH and Ryan Jeffers as a backup catcher, but this isn’t going to be a priority.
Red Sox: Christian Vazquez has posted a solid, if unremarkable .271/.315/.374 batting line in 168 plate appearances this season, but neither of Boston’s backup options (Kevin Plawecki, Connor Wong) have provided any offense at all. This doesn’t feel all that likely, as Boston probably has bigger needs to consider when the deadline rolls around — assuming they hang onto (or remain within striking distance of) their current No. 3 Wild Card spot in the American League.
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Contreras has been the best all-around catcher in baseball this offseason, so you could make the argument that he can/should be shoehorned into just about any contender or fringe contender’s lineup. But when looking at the combination of legitimate playoff chances, pure need behind the plate and realistic ability to facilitate a trade of this nature (based on luxury tax, farm system, payroll), it’s hard to look past the Astros, Mets, Rays and Giants as the best fits for a short-term splash behind the plate.
Los gigantes
Well written. It’s kind of a crap shoot, but you have to think he’s being traded somewhere.
It would never happen but love for the brewers to get him and then resign him on a 3-4 year deal and have catcher set for a bit. Narvy is on a 1 year deal anyway.
Also brewers after the yeli disaster contract I don’t think they will spend big outside of resigning Hader and Burnes.
Contreras probably wouldn’t mind going to the Yankees either…. Especially after what he just witnessed in the Bronx.
@Yankee Clipper- Hey you know I love Contreras! Ca$hman make it happen! Trevino has been great, he’s definitely staying. Cubs probably aren’t taking Deivi and Andujar back. Cubies can’t trade him, the fans will all go nuts. I feel they won’t, but it could happen. He’s a rental of course.
They did trade all of those guys last year. I think the bandaid has been ripped already. Don’t see the Yankees getting him based on Trevino holding his own and current standings.
Agree completely YBC. Got a question for all of the Yankee fans out there. Would you rather have Trevino and Benintendi or Contreras and Gallo? Really like Contreras but I’ll take Trevino and Benintendi thank you very much.
In truth, I don’t see us getting either player. I expect unless the Yankees have a big fade to do very little. A bullpen pitcher maybe, but that’s it.
Cubs can’t trade him? They traded an actual fan favorite (Rizzo) and non-tender post season hero Schwarber, Baez was way more popular than Contreras ever could dream to be. Hoyer doesn’t care per say what the fan base thinks/feels…
Truth be told, I wish Epstein had half the sack hoyer has shown in dealing with the “core” guys
Wait are you saying Epstein did hang himself?
Oh Willy is getting traded for sure… The Cubs have not approached him for an extension, they’re going a different direction.
You are correct clip, as usual. I would love to see Contreras in New York. Don’t know if what Trevino is doing a sustainable. Even if it is Higgy needs to be replaced ,he’s just an automatic out and he’s not a particularly good catcher It turns out, what a surprise also
I agree with you guys. Cashman has prospects to spare, ie, Breaux, who will be a Rule 5 selection & is doing well this season (optimal trade timing anyway). Contreras would be a fantastic complement to Trevino, especially if he doesn’t sustain his offensive performance.
How about Stanton’s 120mph bullet to LF off the façade?! Wow…. That’s insane.
Hate to be the one to throw cold water on this but, as Ken Rosenthal pointed out, Cashman has said it was a mistake to trade for a catcher at the deadline when he traded for Pudge.
Also, to me, there’s absolutely no reason to rock the boat on one of the best pitching Yankees teams ever.
No cold water, Joe, I hear you. I was speaking more to his potential contributions to the lineup/roster. I don’t think Cashman will do this trade either, especially with how well the Yanks are performing in all areas. Plus, he clutches prospects like they’re pearls.
Joe,
Yankee improved SP is due to
(1). Health – Severino is back and Taillon is completely over his injured ankle and is in a contract year.
(2) Improved defense with IKF at short, Torres at 2nd rather than short, and most importantly having Rizzo for the entire year at first.
(3) Trevino, Trevino, Trevino!!
Why would you trade for an admittedly talented catcher in Contreras who is coveted by a host of teams(see the article) when the SP has been so good. Why fix something that ain’t broke?
Thank you, Joe. It ain’t broke. Don’t fix it.
The Yankees’ record is dependent on great pitching and improved fielding as much as on the great offense. If the metrics mean anything, Contreras is a poor framer. Trevino is among the best, and both Trevino and Higgy are better defenders this year than Contreras if Baseball Prospectus’s metrics have any validity:
baseballprospectus.com/leaderboards/catching/
Talking about “if Trevino regresses toward his career levels of production” misses the point about Trevino. What he adds to the chemistry of the team can’t be quantified. Higgy credited him yesterday with a batting tip that led to his two home runs.
“I’ve been grinding all year, trying to look for that adjustment to get back to where I know I could be,” Higashioka said. “For some reason, [Trevino’s advice] just clicked everything into place. I’ve got to give credit to my man Trevi.”
mlb.com/yankees/news/kyle-higashioka-hits-home-run…
Jose is living his childhood dream in pinstripes and his enthusiasm and rapport with his teammates is obvious. And his career BA with RISP is .292, so it’s not a partial-season fluke.
Even if they replaced Higgy with Contreras and kept Trevino, it seems likely Contreras would become the default starting catcher, as Sanchez was. Would some added offense (when the team already leads in OPS) make up for a decline in the pitching and defense? I’d be concerned about that.
I had so many Yankee fans lectiure me in years past when I put down Gary Sanchez due to his poor defense. I was called every name in the book. Cleveland has always believed with defense first at catcher. That was one reason for their pitching success. Glad to see that they now appreciate a defensive catcher.
According to the metrics there are 74 catchers who are better than Christian Vazquez? Just proves that the new ‘metrics’ are junk.
He ranks 47th in Fielding Runs Above Average. In Throwing Runs, he’s in the third tier. He’s 86th in Framing Runs, and that lowers his overall rating. Whether or not those are accurate measures, I couldn’t say. I gather that you think Vazquez is a superior catcher.
Agreed…great comment man…..First Cashman will be very concerned about the chemistry of trading for either a starting catcher or platoon catcher, whichever way you look at Contreras addition to the team…..
Secondly, the Yankees made a concerted effort to improve defense and game calling by going with Trevino/Higgy and moving Sanchez.
Thirdly, wasn’t overly impressed with Contreras defense (and who knows pitch calling based on their pitchers performance) during the weekend series….getting him for his bat, while important won’t move the needle in the playoffs as compared to framing, blocking, runners on the bases, and game calling….all much more important as compared to offense.
They are much better served getting a left fielder to replace Gallo, who can keep the line moving, will add to team chemistry and is seasoned in the AL East…..like Benintendi is…….the better choice to improve the team.
The cub the Yankees should target is Ian Happ… he would be a great fit for the Yankees line up, good power, good on base skills, good base running and can steal bag… he also plays a plus corner outfield and can play center.
Happs power comes in spurts but this season he has found a balance where he is hitting a lot of line drives and the occasional home run, his power is going to get hot and he will go off for 15 home runs in a six week stretch.
Happ is actually the only Cub player I want to see them extend at the moment… Nico hoerner I wouldn’t be upset about at all if we could put him at second base and back up short. Nico is an elite defender at second base… not too shabby at short either.
Superior is saying a lot, no Vazquez is not superior. He’s also not awful like these stats portray him to be. I view him as a starter and a contributor to winning. He’s not irreplaceable but he is also not a negative on the team.
It was a mistake, @Joe. Rodriguez was aging, off steroids, and past his prime. His time on the Yankees was forgetable as he didn’t hit, and his defensive skills were in decline. While forgetable, it was significant, but for a bad reason. There is a decent likelihood that the trade for Pudge ended any chance that Joba Chamberlain would reach his potential. It wasn’t the “Joba Rules” that did in Joba. It wasn’t his usage. It was a play and injury that dates to Pudge’s time on the Yankees. Nothing malicious, but an unfortunate injury. During a warm Texas game that Joba was pitching and Pudge catching, Pudge scrambled to catch a ball and throw to 2B to nail a runner. Joba’s motion took him in the path of Pudge’s eventual throw. He ducked to evade the throw and landed heavily on his pitching shoulder. Nothing was immediately evident, but the Yankees noticed something was off. They pulled him from the game and then shut him down for about three weeks. He returned and his velocity was down by about 3 mph. The Yankees shut him down for the season. He rested over the offseason, but when Spring Training arrived, the velocity was still down. His slider had lost some bite, his command was off. All indications of a shoulder injury. Not all injuries lead to surgery, some lead to a loss of of “stuff.”
Joba was always a high-risk, high-reward pitcher who might have been destined for an arm injury with his motion. It might have been a coincidence it happened in that game where he hit the ground hard. I don’t think so though. I believe he injured himself avoiding a throw by Pudge. No one is at fault, but it annoying thinking maybe Joba lost years of dominance for a completely meaningless trade.
I don’t understand the Cashman clutches prospect deal. He’s traded a lot of prospects in the last few years.
Roansy Contreras, Kevin Alcantara, Josh Smith are all 50 FV guys he’s dealt away. A slew of other prospects as well. Perhaps because it’s the Yankees he gets that wrap but it’s not really accurate.
It’s not so much he won’t make trades, it’s he won’t pull the trigger on a blockbuster because of the prospect capital cost.
I think cash man screwed up last season by not trading for Baez… javy would have been a good fit for the Yankees and he tends to shine when the lights are brightest.
With that said, the prospect costs now for star players are not that high, he paid a fairly high cost for Rizzo because the Cubs also paid the entirety of Rizzo remaining salary for 2021… the Yankees had to stay under the luxury tax and the cubs were happy to make cash pay with prospects.
But if you look at trade deadlines “block busters” don’t involve top tier prospects unless it involves at least an extra year of control for a player or multiple players (scherzer/turner). The Cubs were able to land crow-Armstrong only because he was hurt, same with Madrigal. They got canario and kilian primarily because Canario was in A+ ball, still needing several years of development and required a 40 man roster spot.
A Contreras trade for instance, would “only” require a package similar to what Rizzo or Bryant brought back. More if the cubs are salary, add a player (Robertson) or took a bad contract back.
I don’t want to be that guy, which means I’m going to be that guy now, @Clipper. : -).
The Yankees purposely went in a direction of defense at catcher, with a high level of pitch framing this year. It wasn’t an accident. It wasn’t desperation. It was a strategic decision. They’re not going to throw that away mid-season to bring in another version of Gary Sanchez, meaning bat first at the expense of reduced defense. Contreras is better, both with the bat and glove, but it would not represent a step up to a degree that they would change course in midstream at perhaps the most critical position on the field. That is very un-Cashman like. Add in that any new catcher would need to learn the pitching staff and gain their trust while learning the Yankees pitching system, and I’d rate the chances of it happening at less than 5 percent. Maybe less than 1 percent! The Yankees pitching staff, btw, is renowned for being difficult to catch. Lots of velocity and movement, so the hitting would need to outperform the pitch-framing advances that Cashman targeted. Cashman won’t throw out the plan he built in the offseason, especially when it’s led to tremendous success. Remember, before he got injured, Rortvedt was going to have Trevino’s role. He’s also an exceptional pitch framer. This has been Cashman’s plan. I’m not prepared to say it’s the wrong plan! Add in that the Yankees would have to also trade prospect capital and they’d have to cut Higgy, who is very popular in the clubhouse. I don’t see it.
Cashman will add at the trade deadline. If he’s going to add offense, it will come at the Hicks and/or Gallo positions, depending on what they do the next month. History says he’ll also strengthen the pen. That’s where he’ll spend some prospect capital. Our catchers are set. I’d move any chance of a trade from the “wait and see” to the “longer shot” bucket. Very long shot.
Well said, Rob. Not to mention that Contreras is a free agent next year and to keep him wouldn’t come cheap. Trevino is under team control through 2025 and Higgy’s under team control through 2024. Nice tandem to keep around if this season is any indication.
Hey, Rob, I actually agree with you. You may have missed my response to Joe, stuck in the middle, but I was simply speaking to the benefit of him overall to the lineup. My first comment was a reference to the beating they sustained at the hands of the Yankees.
I do agree, for all the reasons you stated, Cashman won’t engage the Cubs in a trade for Willson. Also, below I added that if he does trade (for a position player), I fully anticipate that player fulfilling an OF role, hopefully Hicks’ (but most likely Gallo’s).
Contreras doesn’t have a NTC. It doesn’t matter what he would or wouldn’t mind.
I was referring to the beating he just watched his team take from the Yankees while visiting NY…
The yankees would be stupid to trade for Contreras or any catcher period. They are getting decent production out of Trevino and even if he regreses who cares what he’s doing for the pitching stuff goes beyond what a few more home runs would do for the team. Catcher is just fine why would you even try to mess a good thing up all of our starting pitching is doing great because of it for once in over a decade at least our pitching is a strength why ruin in it. If we need something is a true center fielder an old fashioned CF I should say a guy who can hit .300 steal bases and play good defense who cares If he can’t hit home runs.
Yankees2016: Who would you like for CF that could fit that mold, that’s also available for the assets the Yankees have to offer?
The only qualified center fielder who’s batting at least .300 is Aaron Judge. If you include the unqualified CFs with at least 100 PA, you can add Yonathan Daza and Gilberto Celestino.
Yanks need to save their trade chips for a starter.
King, Schmidt, German, and Man Ban can all fill a slot if needed.
@YankeesBleacherCreature- Nah cuz way too much! Pereira, Deivi, German and Andujar maybe? We’ll see. Willson is just a rental.
I meant the Yankees don’t need to trade for another starter. You only 4 starters in the playoffs.
You are correct. I don’t know if the Yankees biggest need right now is another starter. After all their starters have the best ERA and other stats in the league. They certainly could use an outfielder a centerfielder though or maybe a catcher that can hit a bit
I could see the yanks trading for a cubbie outfielder by the name of Ian Happ. I wouldn’t mind giving up a prospect in top 30 range for him.
Yes, a Hicks replacement…. That’s what the team needs. Pretty sound everywhere else. Hicks isn’t good, simply put. Had the Cubs not been so analytical in their approach in their first game, they would’ve gone after Hicks, not walked him and put the game in Trevino’s hands. Hicks is an auto-out for the most part. That move still baffles me. I’d pitch to Hicks 10/10 times when faced with that decision.
They’re riding high after demolishing the cubs over the weekend. I know it’s the cubs but it can still boost their morale. And I’m a cubs fan.
I’ll be shocked if he’s not a Met by August. The Cubs should have another opportunity to pry away a highly regarded prospect from the Mets in exchange for a rental
It would be foolish for the Mets to spend prospects on rental catcher when they have a stud being groomed in AA and James McCain will be returning. with plenty season remaining.
In the meantime, the Mets are 18 games over ..500 running Nido and Mazeika out there.. Bad enough they lost one of their best prospects, Pete Crow Armstrong to the Cubs last season.. This season they have new GM who hopefully won’t make same mistake.
The Mets current situation at C is atrocious and Alvarez won’t be up this year. With Cohen’s aggressive all in approach, it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if he makes the move to get Contreras. Billy Eppler is nothing more than a figurehead for the front office. If Cohen tells him to make the move he will
Thomas Nido is fourth in Fielding Runs Above Average among all catchers, and McCann is 17th.
baseballprospectus.com/leaderboards/catching/
Without deGrom or Scherzer, the Mets staff has an ERA under 4.00. I don’t follow the Metsies, but that doesn’t look like an atrocious situation.
Don’t count on that, “stud” to produce in 2022…
I dont see the Mets unless they somehow end up taking on Heywards salary as part of the deal. Their top prospects are too good to give up for a rental, but after that there is some significant drop off. Odds are they can get more elsewhere. Giants would be my bet; Tampa would be my second guess.
If the Cubs trade him, I’ll be pisses and throw a tantrum for a few days. She’d a year or two. But eventually get over it. But I really hope they don’t trade him. But I also know they will. Ugh….jerks
Do ppl not understand that wilson contreras is a bad catcher? He ranks as arguably the worst framer in the sport. Sure he can hit but he is not good for a pitching staff. Its crazy that noone is talking about how awesome the yankees pitching is now that gary sanchez is gone. Biggest addition by subtraction in a long time. Its also not a great investment to acquire your #1 catcher at the deadline. Learning an entire pitching staff’s tendencies on the fly is too demanding
People don’t understand that cuz it’s just not true lol.
Astros2017Champs;
Excellent!
I was writing about dumping Sanchez as the Yankees C for over 2 years here (I also was writing to fire Rothschild as pitching coach for 18 months before they did). People – including most MLBTR writers – think of Catchers as if MLB is rotisserie baseball and hitting is what counts. Try this on for size…….
Since most Catchers are not power hitters, lets use the OBP stat. Currently the average OBP in MLB is around .317. Now, take 2 Catchers with 600 PA’s in a year.
Catcher A – Hits .125 with a .175 OPS.
Catcher B – Hits .235 with a .320 OPS.
The difference in OPS over the 600 PA’s -> 84 more times on base. Divide that by 26 (the weeks in a season). Gives 3.23 more times on base each week.
Now…..
Pretending that the Catcher actually catches most games, that means that a team with a hitting Catcher is is getting the man on base one more time every other game……in return for not being able to handle a pitching staff, call and run a game, and block balls in the dirt.
Now you see why Maldanado’s poor hitting means nothing to the Astros. He runs that staff and runs the games.
lol Wilson Contraes doesn’t suck and I’m a white sox fan
Hits good always been clutch you keep talking chemistry him with Baez rizzo would steal a lot of outs throwing behind ppl
Shuts down the running game
Do i think Yankees should go all crazy …… no esp with Trevino
Yankees go after him no
Is higagowshi better than him lol now where drinking the cool aide ……. sign. Cash man to extension one WS in 20 years with 200+ payroll
Astros: That’s partially true. Last season the Yankees pitching performed incredibly well too, and Sanchez was still there. So, I think a bit too much is being attributed to his absence and not enough to Blake (or whomever is controlling their pitching philosophy) & their acquisition of Trevino, who is an elite catcher.
Don’t misunderstand me, Sanchez is certainly addition by subtraction, but I believe it’s a bit more complex than that.
Contreras isn’t a “bad” catcher… he is actually very talented behind the plate, good at blocking balls, great arm but as you said, when it comes to handling a staff Contreras falls short and that is a huge deal. Wilco isn’t Maldonado, Gomes or Molina but he is better than the majority of the league as a well rounded catcher.
Contreras’s, IMO, should not handle a young pitcher. He would be fine with, say the Mets as an example, catching scherzer, degrom etc… guys that are going to get the 50/50 call simply based on reputation and know how to calm themselves, get out jams etc on their own.
Again, IMO, this season wilcos focus has been almost exclusively on hitting and not improving the staff behind the plate. He is looking at dollar signs in his walk year. His agent is pumping up with offensive numbers and dWAR but great teams know that isn’t what matters behind the dish. I’m a Cubs fan and I’ll take Gomes behind the plate any day of the week over contreras and happily slot Wilco at DH.
Lol imagine thinking a catcher who hits like Contreras and throws out runners like Contreras is “a bad catcher” solely because of his framing stat.
Happy birthday James McCann
To the Rays for three prospects if the Cubs also take Zunino to keep the money even. Zunino is also a free agent after the season. So long as the Cubs get the prospects they want, they probably wouldn’t mind taking on Zunino to facilitate the trade.
Some fans are high on Rene Pinto, but he doesn’t seem to be getting long major league looks. Rays also let LHB Brett Sullivan walk and he’s having another nice year for himself. Zunino’s best trade value was after his 2021 All star season but the Rays coaches seem to love him too much to part ways.. Rays and catchers remain a mystery.
I think he could fit well with the Blue Jays. Give the team a veteran catcher with playoff experience to help the staff.
The Blue Jays are arguably the one team in baseball that absolutely does not need or want another catcher. I think Kirk is actually as good or better offensively as Contreas. They are maybe the only contender that does not need a Contreas.
@Bruin1012
It’s not just about offense. It also had to do with handling a rotation and playoff experience. Remind me again when the Jays are knocked out of the playoffs again in the first round.
Ms need this dude.
They don’t.
Cal Raleigh since May 23rd: .245/.296/.531; 136 wRC+ (and solid defense).
Luis Torrens since May 14th: .316/.409/.342; 132 wRC+
Both got off to slow starts, but both have turned it on since mid-May. If Seattle pursues an offensive upgrade it should be a corner outfielder. Winker isn’t hitting the ball hard and RF has been a patch-kit.
Happ might make some sense for Seattle, but I don’t see them acquiring another catcher. Worth noting that Murphy is working out with the club, though he’s still likely several weeks away from a return.
Stevil I completely agree. We don’t need this trade. Raleigh is starting to see the promise he’s been hyped for. Plus, he’s only in his first full year in the bigs. Give the guy some time. I think the article comparing him to Zunino is unfair. If he’s like Zunino in a couple years let’s talk. But people expect Rodriguez type numbers out of people immediately.
Not sure the Giants are an obvious fit, especially compared to the Astros, Rays, and Padres. Despite Bart’s struggles, they’re getting still better production from the position than those teams are.
A bat first catcher isn’t really the Giants type. And why give up a prospect if your team has a good defensive catcher that’s at least close to league average?
Rays are an interesting consideration. They certainly can afford prospects and Zunino isn’t exactly irreplaceable…
I feel like this move makes the most sense for the Guardians…. Jose Ramirez is having an MVP season …. the pitching is there…. It immediately makes them a contender, especially in that division…Cleveland loves their prospects but it’s time to get a couple off the 40-man
I thought the Orioles could use the Bread Man, Marcus Strohman but not after the Shellacking tonight by the Jays
Why would the Yankees tinker?
The fact that Scott Harris knows Contreras from his time with the Cubs, could cut both ways.
Wouldn’t be nice to see the d’arnaud and Contreras brothers as a catching and DH tandem for the Braves next year?
McCann will be the highest paid backup in history. Welcome to the Cohen era.
My first thought was the Mets, however he’d most likely be a pure rental with Alvarez waiting in the wing with an ETA of 2023. Not sure the Mets would be willing to move someone like Batty for half a year of service, and considering the Mets are at the top in Runs scored, Nido’s defense compensates the lack of offense.
Now, if the Cubs were willing to take McAnn’s contract in return – yeah, I see a deal for WC and contract. Can rotate the C with Alvarez while DHing as well.
I agree with all of this but I’m wondering if the Mets just bring Alvarez up and skip AAA. Ordinarily, it would be a silly move, but they’ve gotten absolutely nothing offensively out of the Catcher position. Their hitting for every other position has been great, which has masked how poorly they’ve hit at catcher, but you have to wonder if they haven’t considered it.
Why would the Cubs be willing to take on McCann’s contract? I don’t see that happening
You guys have to look at both sides of what you’re suggesting. If they were willing to take on McAnn’s contract, why in the world would they not just re-sign Contreras? Ain’t gonna happen from the Cub’s side.
You have to look at both sides, McCann is a bad contract the Mets would love to get out of, batty is a top prospect that would be untouchable otherwise (at least for a rental). THAT is why it would make sense from both sides… just like why the Yankees were willing to part with two very good prospects for a couple months of Rizzo… because the cubs ate all his remaining contract to ensure the Yankees stayed below the luxury tax
No offense to anyone, but the Mets are not gonna trade Baty for Wilson Contreras. Their catchers bat ninth, they’ll be ok. Alvarez will be up next year. You don’t trade Baty for half a year of Contreras.
Not straight up but perhaps to get out from that garbage contract they gave McCann and add Contreras for a couple months to help give them an edge in the playoffs.
I know the Mets are well over the luxury tax, but not sure about tier level and what their views are on the luxury tax, surpassing it and for how long so having additional funds is not a small thing.
Draco… IF Batty was included then maybe. But with Gomes and Higgins, McAnn would be dead weight they’d never be able to shed. They already have an albatross in Heyward. And they might get a solid prospect from someone who needs him more without the bad contract. That’s the Cub side.
That’s the whole point in absorbing a bad contract like McCanns… so you can get that elite prospect. Otherwise no, it does not make sense to bring back McCann at all.
Pay attention to trade deadlines, and trades in general… you’re not getting baty unless you make a move like this. You’re not getting a healthy top 100, even in the lower third, for contreras alone. Those moves no longer happen plain and simple.
Like I said, let’s see if they get a better offer. There are other ‘bad’ contracts out there that might bring them someone other than an overpaid catcher they don’t need. Pay attention to that.
I’m not Jed hoyer… I don’t know jed hoyer and I certainly do not have a gun to jed hoyers head telling him to make this move right now… I am simply stating a fact that if the Cubs want to land someone like Baty, they are going to have to eat bad money and probably pay Contreras’s salary as well. And even that is dependent on how a team is looking with their luxury tax situation.
The truth is that neither you or I know that any of what we’ve said is “fact” at all. Something else to consider is that the Cubs have a deeper farm system than they’re currently given credit for and they may have pieces to include that wouldn’t require taking on a bad contract.
Why would they want to get worse at catcher? Yan Gomes has been a pretty good backup. Which is why they signed him to be the back up to Contreras.
Yan Gomes is great at developing pitchers. That is why they signed him and to be the bridge between Contreras and hopefully Amaya, which is why the Cubs hold a third year team option.
How are Yankees not a long shot?!
See NYY’s Catcher’s performance!
If Jose Treveno is batting over .300; & good as they come defensively!
Only if Jose Trevino had Iggy’s line. Yanks’ long shot;
Everything in Trevino’s past says he will be nowhere near .300 by the end of the season. He’s not good offensively.
His career BA is .256. That’s gravy for a top-tier defensive catcher.
Plus, he’s had a total of 586 major league at-bats. It’s not inconceivable that the Yankees’ new pitching coach, Dillon Lawson, unlocked his potential. Higashioka credited Trevino with a batting tip that led to Higgy’s first two home runs in his last game. Sounds like Jose might’ve figured something out with Lawson’s help.
Let’s not forget he just shook Derek Jeter’s hand….that’s an auto-increase of .30 BA points and 3 HRs.
TimC: Although I agree with you, I don’t believe Trevino has ever had:
1) The opportunity or consistency he’s getting in NY, and
2) the protection from the rest of the lineup
I’ll be interested to see what his final line is, however. His defense is unquestionably elite though.
During the Cubs-Yankees radio broadcast on Sunday. Suzyn Waldmen mentioned she’d talked to some “Cubs people before the game,” and that “Contreras will like San Diego.” For whatever that was worth.
Also helps if Contreras is our:
“Aroldis Chapman was to the Cubs”
Admittedly, i dont think Jose’s offense’s sustainable. Defense is as good as it comes; and his offense is icing on the cake.
You didn’t read Ken’s article closely enough. There is NO way Maldonado becomes the backup catcher this year.
Just trade him to the Yankees and be done with it.
Do the Yankees even have the prospects to land him? It’s gonna take a lot to get him.
The biggest thing this told me was investing assets in a catcher is one of the biggest risks a team faces year-to-year.
It’s also one of the highest payoffs given position value scarcity.
Padres (AJP been trying to get Contreras for a while).. make a lotbosmf sense.. they could include the controllable NOLA to bridge the gap and team with Gomes as well as Dimelson Lamet who lost his SP spot and doesn’t seem to pitch well in the BP..in AA now..
So Nola + Lamet *roughly $6mil Combined
ADD a prospect with high upside like SS Acosta + a second like CF Max Ferguson and the Cubbies take on a prorated equivalent to $3 mil (roughly 1.5).. and there you have it.. he can DH 3 x a week with Voit playing 2x at 1B.. and C 3x a week..with Alfaro splitting time.. thus having his bat in the lineup everyday… I like it!
Lamet is a lost cause. I’d be surprised if Jed trades their biggest deadline chip for any part of damaged goods.
Would make more sense to just call up Luis Campusano. And they can’t trade Nola after giving up all that capital to acquire him.
The team that needs him the most won’t get him. The St Louis Cardinals screwed themselves by resigning Yadier just so their stupid sheep fans would keep buying tickets
Yup….should have known doing all this WINNING was going to sell them itself.
The Cubs are forever getting fleeced in trades. It doesn’t matter where Contreras goes from the Cubs perspective.
Hey dude ranch. They got a solid haul for the big 3 last year and 4 or 5 of their top 20 prospects were from those trades.. But then you’d have to actually read and learn to know that .. I know that’s a lot to ask.
Typical Cubbie fandom here. They love hyping unheralded prospects no one has seen play at the big league level.
They got a bunch of projects in return for holding core players until the last possible minute. If you know you’re going to rebuild, why wait to trade guys in the last year of their respective contracts? Makes no sense.
The Mets shouldn’t trade for him, they’ll want a lot for him , especially since the Mets have Alvarez that can come up any day
If Alvarez can come up any day, then why isn’t he up now? Here’s the answer: he’s not ready. And will likely not be ready this season
Kudos to the Yankee fans in here, for recognizing that defense counts. They went from a bad defense to a good defense, and not surprisingly, went from a 114 ERA+ to a 135+. It’s more complicated than that, but I’d love to hear how much of that increase is on defense alone. Voit at 1st, Sanchez at catcher, and Torres at SS was a lot of fun to watch (for the RS fans).
Likewise, my RS went from 111+ to a 117+. Not as dramatic as the NYY, but adding Story & JBJ is meaningful.
It is meaningful. RS also went 21-10 in their last thirty-game stretch and still dropped two more games back – that’s discouraging, but reflects just how good the Yankees are playing right now. It’s remarkable.
In terms of their ERA+, you’re right, it’s more complicated than that. But, the defense has made a notable difference in conjunction with catchers that can, ya know, catch. They’ve set a record for the fewest runs allowed in Yankees history in fifty games, or whatever. Ever! 27 WS championship teams involving some of the greatest dynasties to grace the field of baseball. That’s….impressive.
Defense matters….But, for Cashman to have remade the team like he did? It’s incredible. He certainly demonstrated his talent through this retooling.
@ Yankee Clipper
I’ve enjoyed watching this Yankee lineup. Outside winning being nice. It’s the roster structure. Another thing they always do well (market size helps) is build a strong bench. Flyers on a Matt Carpenter, etc.
It was pretty frustrating to watch over the last couple years because it was blatantly obvious how the defense was hurting this team and staff. There are certain aspects of baseball that hold true, such as defense being important up the middle. A lot of Chads from the Ivy League tried to reinvent the wheel and force square pegs into round holes thinking it was a fantasy baseball lineup. With Judge, Stanton, DJ, Rizzo they are more than a formidable offensive core so you could afford to sacrifice offense at spots like SS and catcher (even a bonus that we are getting offensive production from the catcher spot at the moment).
It really seems like these execs are finally admitting that maybe the analytics are the end all be all and the old school adages ring true.
Interesting and well-written article, but I think the article would be more complete and truly find the best match if it included analysis on what players the Cubs are looking to acquire for Contreras, how they fit their current and future needs, and then whether the Cubs should trade him at the deadline if their asking price isn’t met. Which teams meet that and do they line up with the teams that need a top catcher?
That McCann contract was a horrible idea in the first place. Anyone should have shouted a waste of money. But then again, its the NY MESS!
Raleigh will be a really good C, with a bit more play under his belt.
Many people did shout waste of money. Mets had to get a catcher. They didn’t want to shell out for Realmuto. McCann had them over a barrel and demanded the fourth year. That’s just the way these things work. That “mess” is one of the top teams in the game, despite falling short at the catcher position.
Do the giants or Mets even have the prospects to land Contreras? It’s gonna take at least 3 players. With two being top 15 prospects.
Nido is killing it with RISP so saying he is providing no offense at all is a stupid comment. And he’s hitting .245 which is probably in the top half of catchers in baseball. He doesn’t walk but he has a solid at bat, has hit well and it particularly in the clutch.
Contreras will get moved but highly unlikely to the Mets. Simply put the Mets aren’t desperate enough. Sure if the Cubs did a straight up for Dom Smith, maybe. BUT I suspect the Yankees or Padres have a more pressing need. So they will be willing to give up more. Contreras is a FA so this is a rental.
First, the Mets are 19 games over .500 as is. Second, McCann will be back. As poor as he his offensively, he is a solid defensive catcher. Lastly, Alvarez will not be up this season but his bat makes him a 2023 candidate. When he arrives he will play.
My guess is the Padres but don’t sleep on the Yankees.
Padres already have Luis Campusano, as mentioned in the article.
I see what you are saying but I think you are looking at it wrong, for starters, it’s not about the division, it’s about the World Series… second… look at the way the Mets have been spending. If any team is scream “desperate enough” it’s the Mets.
Yep, it’s time to trade him for while he is hot! Wish the Cubs could get something for Heyward which, is hopefully the last of bad Cubs contracts.
Grandal is always hurt, and last year, even when he was not, he sucked. However, the Whitesox always have at least ONE guy like him on the payroll, but normally it’s a pitcher like Dallas, etc.