TODAY: As expected, Snell was activated from the IL. To create roster space, the Padres also announced that left-hander Ray Kerr was optioned to Triple-A.
MAY 16: The Padres have been without lefty Blake Snell all season due to an adductor strain, but the 2018 AL Cy Young winner is set to make his 2022 debut on Wednesday, acting manager Ryan Christenson told reporters yesterday (Twitter link via Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune). San Diego will roll out Mike Clevinger, Snell and Yu Darvish this Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Snell’s return will temporarily push young lefty MacKenzie Gore into the bullpen, though it seems that’ll simply amount to skipping his turn in the rotation just once before he’s considered for another start. The Friars are lined up for a daunting stretch of 40 games in 42 days, Acee points out.
Snell’s return ought to provide a boost to a San Diego staff that’s already been among the better units in the game. Padres starters are tied with the Twins for the game’s ninth-best ERA at 3.50, which is a dead-on match for their seventh-ranked 3.50 FIP. They’re also fourth in MLB with a 25% strikeout rate and have been a respectable, albeit middle-of-the-pack group in terms of walk rate, ranking 15th with a 7.8% mark.
Snell’s first season in San Diego didn’t go as hoped. The now-29-year-old southpaw turned in a 4.20 ERA over the life of 128 2/3 innings and also had a couple of stints on the injured list — including a late-September stay for the same adductor issue that plagued him earlier this year.
However, while Snell’s composite numbers may not stand out, the lefty was back to his Cy Young-caliber form down the stretch in 2021. Snell scrapped his once-dominant changeup — which had been getting hammered last year — on Aug. 3 and ramped up his usage of sliders and four-seamers. The result was a dominant 1.83 ERA and 39.4% strikeout rate with a solid 8.5% walk rate — all marks that dwarfed his numbers through the end of July (5.44 ERA, 27.3% strikeout rate, 14.3% walk rate). If that’s the version of Snell the Padres welcome back this week, an already-strong rotation could develop into a powerhouse.
A short-term shift to the ’pen for Gore may frustrate some fans after the former No. 3 overall pick has debuted with a 2.42 ERA, 26.4% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk rate through his first 26 innings, but it ostensibly appears to be little more than workload management. Gore pitched just 50 1/3 innings of actual game activity last year, struggling to the point that the Padres sent him to their Spring Training facility in mid-June to sort out his mechanics. He was out of games until the middle of August, when he returned to the Padres’ Rookie-ball affiliate and then worked his way back up to Double-A.
There’s been no issue for Gore thus far in 2022. Once lauded as the game’s top pitching prospect, the 23-year-old has made good on that billing both in Triple-A (five shutout innings, seven strikeouts, no walks) and in the Majors (2.42 ERA, 28-to-9 K/BB ratio in 26 frames). The Padres could take some steps to occasional measures such as this one to prevent too stark an innings increase, but so long as Gore continues to pitch with this level of effectiveness, it’ll be hard to keep him out of the rotation.
San Diego has been deploying a six-man rotation thus far, with Joe Musgrove, Darvish, Sean Manaea, Gore, Clevinger and offseason acquisition Nick Martinez all starting games. Acee tweeted last week that the team “tentatively” planned to continue a six-man rotation following the return of Snell, who’d effectively push Martinez to the bullpen.
That’s notable in and of itself, as Martinez signed a surprising four-year, $25.5MM contract with the Padres this winter on the heels of an outstanding run in Japan. The former Rangers righty not only landed that unexpected guarantee but secured opt-out clauses after each year of the contract. That essentially allows him to become a free agent if he’s able to approximate his NPB excellence in MLB but gives him a hearty sum on which to fall back if he struggles in his return to North American ball. Martinez tossed 378 2/3 innings of 3.02 ERA ball in three seasons overseas, including a dominant 1.60 ERA with a 25% strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate in 140 innings with the SoftBank Hawks last year.
So far in 2022, however, Martinez has had his share of tough outings. He’s pitched 30 2/3 innings with a respectable 4.40 ERA, but his 11.5% walk rate and 1.76 HR/9 mark are both well worse than the league average. He’s posted solid strikeout and ground-ball rates (23.1% and 46.4%, respectively), but he’ll need to curb the free passes and the long balls if he’s to fully establish himself.
Even if Martinez is bullpen-bound for the time being, that shouldn’t be expected to close the book on him as a starter. The Padres made a notable investment in him this winter even amid luxury-tax concerns, and it’s of course likely that other injuries on the pitching staff will pop up and give Martinez further opportunities to start some games. The number of times he takes the hill to start a game is certainly worth monitoring, though; Martinez’s 2023, 2024 and 2025 salaries would all increase by $1MM if he makes 20 starts.
I don’t like the idea of skipping Gore. It took the Padres about a year to unkink whatever went awry. Now that he is back on the star trek, he’d be the last guy I’d mess with.
Word is in local sports talk radio is that they may stack (I think that’s the term they used) Gore up with Snell for a start or two for a sort of bullpen day.
I didn’t think of that, but that would be a good idea. My guess is that Gore should be limited to 130 or less IPs, and he’s at about 30.
I wonder if they would stack him in the entire rotation. Every 5 days, they give a starter a stack day. One week, Darvish throws 3-4 innings, then 5 days later, Musgrove throws 3-4. It could keep the rotation fresh, while keeping Gore on a regular schedule, and controlling his innings.
I’ve heard they want to keep Gore’s inning to about 100.
But the stack idea is a very good strategy JoeBrady, and I’m guessing management would do that if they could get Musgrove and Darvish to agree to it. I doubt they will. Snell or Clevinger are more likely to go with the stack with Gore pre-determined to step in around inning 4 or 5.
If the Friars can get 8 solid outings out of a Snell-Gore piggyback (until Snell builds up his arm strength) every 5th day or so-that will be huge.
It sounds like Gore is basically just going to come in and throw an inning or two during either Clev or Snell’s start just to stay “fresh” more so than to piggy-back them to the end of the game.
Prior to the season they said that Gore’s innings would not be limited since he threw so many “games” at the Peoria facility last season. Still, I would think that if there is a chance to give him a start off while still keeping him on his schedule then the Padres will do that.
Hurry back Blake, Schnell, schnell!
Piggybacking starters messes with their rhythm. Just start them or give them bullpens. None of the piggybacking where you can’t control timing of entering the game
Stacking Gore with Snell makes a lot of sense. Snell hasn’t pitched all year so I’m sure they’ll want to limit his pitch count for his first 3-4 outings and of course this would help limit Gore’s IP totals as well. This would essentially limit Gore’s pitch count for about a month and then they can re-evaluate. Either another starter could go on the IL and Gore moves into that spot or they decide to move Gore to the bullpen as a multi-inning, high leverage pitcher in the same way Boston used Garrett Whitlock before moving him into the rotation.
If they do have a hard limit on total innings pitched by Gore this year then the bullpen spot makes the most sense; they’ll just need to be cognizant of their chances of making the playoffs and how many of those innings they want to reserve for Gore to pitch in the post season. It would be a shame if they shut down Gore in August or September because he reached his innings cap and he doesn’t pitch in the post season at all.
San Diego also expects Drew Pomeranz back soon so if Gore moves into the bullpen, a healthy and effective Pomeranz could help limit his BP innings too and keep enough fuel in Gore’s tank to pitch in the playoffs. So many options to consider. All I know is that year to date, the Padres chances of winning have improved when Gore has been on the mound so they need to figure out how to maximize his value between now and the end of the season.
Great problem to have- unlike last year when the padres were signing toasted arms to get through the season like, Jake arrieta
It’s only mid-May. You never know what the rotation could like like in September.
One rule in baseball that has not changed for 100+ years. You can never have too much pitching.
The innings limit this year was a given.
Either pitch him now and shut him down later or give him a lighter load now and preserve him for later (when an injury may require his full-time use).
The 5-man rotation of Darvish, Musgrove, Snell, Manaea and Clevinger is set, and the team already moved Martinez to long-relief, so it makes sense to reduce Gore’s innings now and see how the set rotation does.
Pads play 40 games in next 42 days so I’m sure we’ll see both Gore and Martinez in plenty of games
They look good so far. I like Bob Melvin. His approach to things. He’s stable. He won’t screw it up.
The whole Padres FO and ownership will have something to say about how they treat Gore going forward – they probably return him to a hermetically sealed case every time he leaves the mound
Next year they’ll have Darvish, Snell, Gore and Martinez in place. Clevenger, Manaea and Musgrove will all be free agents. You would think at least one would be retained. Otherwise that’s a lot of spent prospect capital just walking out the door.
I doubt they’re going to let Musgrove walk. He’s a hometown guy who owns the only no hitter in franchise history, and he’s pitched pretty damned well so far. Clevinger loves San Diego, so he might be back too if his performance merits it.
They don’t get to “let” or “not let” Joe do anything.
That’s what’s called a “figure of speech.” Of course Musgrove can do whatever he wants, but I think there’s a pretty good chance they’ll get something worked out.
Musgrove will go for the biggest money offered. IMO. I see no hometown loyalty in him. It’s win now for the Padres. It will be that way from now on. Ownership wants to win. Big change from the old days. Go Celtics. :).
Obviously they’re going to have to make a serious offer to keep Joe in town, but given Preller’s demonstrated proclivity to throw money around and the goodwill such a move would generate among the fan base, I personally think there’s a good chance it’ll happen.
“hometown loyalty” works both ways.
It’s already spent prospect capital walking out the door. You trade for the amount of control the player comes with.
*FRESNO FIRE FROGS
Martinez is an alright back of the rotation option, but he isn’t good enough to be taking playing time away from the top of the rotation arms. A 6 man rotation over the course of the entire year would theoretically reduce Musgrove/Manaea/Darvish down from 32 starts to 27 with approximately ~30 less innings thrown by each of them.
The problem with Martinez is he allows way too many baserunners. He’s been able to get out of trouble enough to limit the damage somewhat, but barring injury he really shouldn’t start for SD with the other options they have. They’re better off getting those top of the rotation arms out there every 5 days.
Put Gore/ Snell/ Clevinger in some kind of stacking arraignment, All you need is 5 innings from one and 4 from the other and you’ve bought an entire off day for your bullpen and solved your rotation logjam.
The way Darvish, Musgrove and Manaea are going right now I wouldn’t change a thing with them. If they get Pomeranz back to sure up the lefty BP situation the Padres look to have a pretty strong pitching staff.
This is wonderfully ideal: stacking the rotation with so much talent that the Pads can actually disguise the load management. Clev looks solid after his 2nd TJS and would still be on an innings limit himself. Continue slow-playing your poker hand with Gore and ramp up Snell as needed. No-No Joe, Yu and Manaea all look fantastic (and the 2 pending FAs should be extended, imo). Martinez has looked serviceable at worst but should be the odd-man-out for ‘pen duty. The bullpen will get their reinforcements soon… I suppose the only question mark around the team’s arms is Lamet and his “availability” but that would seem to be nipped in the bud with his recent demotion to EP. Looking good Pads, you’re rewarding my lifelong Faith!
Also can stretch out Morejon and Baez, so like the Rays the Padres may re-invent rotation usage. Stacking.
Morejon is making starts for the Storm on his rehab assignment. On decent, one really bad. He has to be called up by June 10th. Baez started his rehab assignment in Lake Elsinore also and he has to be called up by May 30th
I’m pretty sure they allow extensions to the usual 30 days for pitchers when someone is coming back off Tommy John. I believe the team can apply for up to an additional 30 days in that situation, so those two might not have to come back exactly when you’re mentioning and the Padres may try to extend their rehabs out.
It’s going to be tricky for them to manage the roster spots in the pen because a lot of those guys can’t be optioned (i.e. Suarez/Stammen) and then the ones who can, (i.e. Crismatt/Wilson) are typically performing better.
They also have minor league options so if they aren’t allowed to extend the rehab they can just send them down to AAA
The problem is the 40-man roster. Who gets dropped?
Brent Rooker? Kyle Tyler? Robinson Cano? Matt Beaty?
Push the stud to the pen for a schmuck. Stop playing video games all night and get some sleep Snell. Maybe then you won’t be hurt all the time because your body will have the opportunity to heal.
Careful how you use that term – I recall the term ‘Stacking’ being used in reference to racial segregation of NFL players by position. Doesn’t apply here, but still, its a bit of a charged term
how about NOT be careful about any words much less stacking. good grief. there are people out there for whom literally EVERYTHING is about race. except things that are really actually racist. shocking.
Dumbest take I’ve read on this site in a long time.
San Diego definitely has the requisite fire power and the horses in their rotation to get the job done. When they’re all healthy, which we haven’t even witnessed yet, Musgrove, Darvish, Clevinger, Snell, Gore, and Martinez could very easily combine to form the best and most talented 6-man rotation in all of MLB.
Still though, if they aren’t healthy, and their reserves are either injured like Morejon and Pomeranz or haven’t been effective like Lamet and Weathers, their offense better learn to score some more runs and become more consistent on a night in and night out basis.
They have some reinforcements coming later on in the year, so this team could get healthy and hit their stride all at the right time for a solid run, but it’s almost like every single one of their pitchers has dealt with a serious injury or two recently, so it is hard to really count on them to stay healthy and remain reliable…Darvish, Clevinger, and Snell don’t have to be like their former selves and finish near the top for the Cy Young Award, they just need to stay healthy, build off of each quality performance, and you’d be surprised how competition and winning become contagious for a rotation of talented pitchers…
don’t forget Manaea, who has gone at least 6 innings in 6 of 7 starts already (all quality starts)
Really curious to see who they trade out of this group..I’d say Gore is the only one off the table..depending how Musgrove extension talks are going..
If it looks like he won’t sign though, you have to look at dealing him..hometown kid or not..
Perhaps more likely is that no trade happens. It will largely depend on the standings. If they don’t foresee signing FA Musgrove in off-season, but they’re needing him in this year’s playoffs, they won’t deal him. This would apply to any one of their rotation guys who are performing really well.
But I agree with DrDan above, they have every reason to try to keep the hometown ace for many years
@Brew They’re most likely going to have to..They have a huge deficiency in the OF, and their excess of starters are by far their best bargaining chips..not to mention several are FA’s coming up..I’m betting AJ builds a package around 1 for an OF bat, and controllable arm..
@ tippin. Agree they have to address the OF situation, and sadly, it’s even more dire given that Grisham hasn’t hit much at all in his last 500 ABs. I wonder how long they will keep running him out there.
But the question becomes who do they part with? The strength of the team is SP, not necessarily expendable SP. With the middle RP thin (or just bad) and Snell tossing 85 IP in 4 innings, they may need to continue forward with the piggy-back usage of Gore and Martinez. At least until Pomeranz and other RPs get healthy.
If they do deal a SP, Snell is my preference, there might be an AL team with a strong bullpen willing to overlook his inefficiency.
You don’t trade a strong starting pitcher when you’re battling for the playoffs.
You can’t deal Joe if the team is contending, extension or no extension. A team has basically never made the WS after dealing a pitcher of Musgrove’s caliber in-season.
I am thinking they may give a QO to Musgrove, Clevinger or Manaea if they do not trade/extend any of them. I certainly hope they give Musgrove a fair offer by the All-Star break.
Musgrove and Manaea get QO’s for sure. Clevinger is debatable but with the way he pitched today and with them giving up all that capital to acquire him in the first place I’d lean towards yes on him as well.
Agreed Harambe
Cleavinger and/or Snell are the guys to unload… There’s a connection with the Trevor Bauer accuser and Clev. (Tatis does too, but…) Snell came unprepared to spring training.
Snell was probably too busy playing video games during the off-season to worry about baseball. At least he didn’t break a bone while playing interior decorator.
This kid has so much talent, yet he’s incredibly frustrating to watch sometimes.