The Tigers were aggressive this winter in making calculated veteran additions to augment their rising core. It may not be enough to compete for a playoff spot this season, but it signaled the organization was putting the rebuild in the rearview mirror.
Major League Signings
- Javier Baez, SS: six years, $140MM (deal includes opt-out clause after 2023)
- Eduardo Rodriguez, SP: five years, $77MM (deal includes opt-out clause after 2023)
- Andrew Chafin, RP: two years, $13M
- Michael Pineda, SP: one year, $5.5MM
2022 spending: $48MM
Total spending: $238MM
Options Exercised
- None
Trades and Claims
- Acquired C Tucker Barnhart from Reds for IF Nick Quintana
- Acquired OF Austin Meadows from Rays for IF Isaac Paredes and a Competitive Balance Round B selection
- Acquired minor league IF Jamie Westbrook from Brewers for cash
Notable Minor League Signings
- Wily Peralta (selected onto 40-man roster to lock in $2.5MM base salary), Chase Anderson, Drew Hutchison, Ramon Rosso, Miguel Diaz, Jack Lopez, Carlos Sanabria, Chris Rabago, Jacob Barnes (selected onto 40-man roster), Ryan Lavarnway, Shea Spitzbarth, Derek Law
Extensions
Notable Losses
The Tigers had only one losing season from 2006 to 2014, capping off that highly-successful era with a four-year run atop the AL Central. But when the wheels fell off, they fell all the way off. As the wins dried up, so did their spending. Luxury tax payrolls that had drifted over the $200MM mark near the end of that competitive era began decreasing year-by-year to a low of ~$103MM last season.
For a while there, they’d stopped spending almost entirely, going five years from 2016 to 2021 without signing a free agent to a multi-year deal. That stretch ended last winter with Robbie Grossman’s two-year contractl. As they entered this past winter, the Tigers had no plans to sit out the proceedings. In fact, they came into the winter with their roster needs clearly in mind, and they set about immediately to fill them.
The Tigers broke the seal on the offseason with a trade to bring in a veteran defensive catcher in Barnhart who could help usher their young cavalcade of starters into the next era of Tigers’ baseball. Barnhart doesn’t do much with the bat (82 RC+ over 2,584 career plate appearances), but he’s a respected gloveman. He’s also only under contract for one season, so while the Tigers have expressed interest in working out a long-term deal, they can move along at year’s end if the price doesn’t meet their expectations.
Tigers’ GM Al Avila made clear from the beginning of the offseason that bringing in a veteran starter was going to be one of their priorities. They checked that box by inking Eduardo Rodriguez to a five-year, $77MM deal that allows him to opt-out after the second season. Rodriguez brings veteran savvy and World Series experience to an otherwise youthful rotation. Tarik Skubal, Matt Manning, Casey Mize, and company ought to learn much from seeing the example E-Rod sets at the top of the rotation.
From a more practical standpoint, Rodriguez should provide the bulk and stability that a rotation needs at the top. As they manage the workloads of their younger arms, Rodriguez will be asked to be a run-stopper and innings-eater. It might be that one day soon, Skubal, Manning, or Mize might take over in that role, but for the first couple years of the deal, Rodriguez will set the tone.
Javier Baez will serve a similar role on the offense. Though Baez’s bat will have its ups-and-downs, he fits Detroit’s model because of his defensive upside. Like Barnhart and Rodriguez, Baez is meant to supplement and aid the development of their young core. That means supporting them with his glove. His bat will absolutely help, but there is offensive help on the way in Detroit. Namely, in the form of Riley Greene, who began this year on the injured list, and Spencer Torkelson, the former first overall pick who started this season in Detroit.
Of course, El Mago signed for six years (although, like Rodriguez, he can opt-out after 2023), so his bat isn’t inconsequential. It’s a risk spending so much money on a volatile talent like Baez for his age-29 through age-35 seasons. But even if his career arc eventually takes his production back to the 96 wRC+ bat he was from 2015 to 2017, that’s still an above-average talent if the defense holds. Shortstop has been a black hole for the Tigers in recent seasons, and it was clear they were prepared to spend to address it. The Tigers reportedly offered Carlos Correa ten years and $275MM (presumably before settling on Baez as their long-term shortstop), but Correa was still seeking to handily top $300MM at the time.
The Tigers do have some infielders coming up through the system – Ryan Kreidler, Izaac Pacheco, Manuel Sequera, Javier Osorio – but with the exception of Kreidler, who just broke his hand, most of those prospects are many years away from the Majors. El Mago will excite the fanbase, provide defensive support for the young pitching staff, and by all accounts, he’s a positive clubhouse presence. Baez’s plate discipline can be worrisome, but he checks a lot of the supplemental boxes.
Just as the Tigers more-or-less opened the offseason with their trade for Barnhart, they also ended it with another trade. The day before Opening Day, the Tigers jumped to nab Austin Meadows from the Rays. Meadows is a player with warts, but he’s also an obvious upgrade for the Tigers, especially so long as Greene remains sidelined. Meadows turns 27 this year, he’s only making $4MM, and with two more seasons of arbitration beyond this one, the Tigers aren’t on the hook for a long-term commitment. Landing Meadows required parting with young infielder Isaac Paredes, a promising young minor league hitter but a player who has yet to find big league success.
Meadows is an upgrade for the offense this year, pairing with Robbie Grossman to form a reliable veteran corner outfielder tandem. Grossman is a free agent after this season, so the Meadows acquisition protects them somewhat from a potential Grossman departure. Akil Baddoo, if he continues to produce, can earn his reps his center, and if he doesn’t, he can transition to a fourth outfield role when Greene proves ready.
On the pitching side, E-Rod filled the greatest void on the roster, and he was, by far, the biggest addition on that side of the ball. But given the youth of their staff, and the inevitability of injuries these days, the Tigers dipped their toes into the bargain end of the veteran free agent market as well. They signed former Mariners, Yankees, and Twins right-hander Michael Pineda on March 19th to a one-year deal. Pineda has dealt with injuries throughout his career, but he was pretty solid during the three years he spent in Minnesota.
Just a few days prior to inking Pineda, they also brought back Wily Peralta on a one-year, $2.5MM deal that was contingent upon his making the big-league club – which he did. Peralta was a surprising success as a starter for the Tigers last year, posting a 3.07 ERA/4.94 FIP over 93 2/3 innings while making 18 starts. He’s more likely to serve as a bullpen arm this year, but they have him as an option for starter minutes as well.
The bullpen was kept largely intact, but they did add Andrew Chafin on a two-year deal. “The Sheriff” has been an undervalued arm for many years now. With a 3.31 ERA/3.17 FIP over 414 career appearances, he’s been about as reliable as can be expected of any bullpen arm. He’ll slot in with Gregory Soto and Michael Fulmer to take on high-leverage opportunities.
The Tigers weren’t the most active team this past winter, but they set out to fill a couple of holes, they targeted the players they wanted to fill those spots, and they got their targets. The primary growth of their organization will still have to come from the internal development of their core young players, but Baez, Meadows, Barnhart, Pineda, Chafin, and Rodriguez bring a decent jolt of talent and experience to their young core. Miguel Cabrera may have enough veteran experience and clubhouse presence to feed the whole organization, but he’s not the on-field contributor that he used to be. These additions should help in ways that Cabrera, the legend, no longer can.
Is it enough to turn these Tigers into a surprising upstart? Vegas says no, putting them third in the AL Central with 28-1 odds of winning the division. None of ESPN’s staff picked them for the playoffs. Five Thirty Eight pegged their most likely record to land at 71-91.
The Tigers knew they had weaknesses going into the offseason. They surely know they have weaknesses now. But there’s no doubt they have fewer holes on the roster now than they did at the end of last season. For a team looking to emerge from a rebuild, their approach was a reasonable one. They made additions, but they were relatively judicious at the same time. They didn’t blast their window of contention open, but if it’s open a crack, they nudged it open a little further.
Other than Boyd who had surgery and isn’t expected until June, the Tigers lost no one of note. They improved at shortstop (Baez over Goodrum), catcher (Barnhardt over Greiner), and outfield (Meadows over an ensemble). They also added E-Rod and Chafin without losing anyone of note. Yet, they outright stink and can’t hit worth a lick. Very frustrating.
Losing Greene before the season hurt. Three of their hitters are notoriously streaky. They’re all just cold at the same time. They’re doing better than they did to start the year last year.
The Tigers are NOT doing better than last year at this time. Same exact record, and they needed a rather decent finish to end with a not-terribly-disgusting record.
That led to a lot of unrewarded fan optimism.
I don’t see a lot of turnaround available here. The bad start is being blamed on Riley Greene’s injury. Really.
If Mike Trout patrolled CF instead of Badoo or whomever, not a lot would change teamwise. Check the Angels seasonal records for verification.
But if Trout was there, at least Detroiters would have one batter worth viewing in that cesspool lineup,
And, stop with the “Tork is not overmatched” commentary. Sheesh. He’s dead lost out there. Takes them down the middle, and flails outside the zone. Difficulty catching up with elite fastballs…which, while not uncommon is not supposed to be the case with a supposedly-elite hitter.
Still, with Tork, he always starts out brain dead at every new level. Then it clicks…eventually. So, send him out or keep him…whatever. If history holds, he’ll adjust.
But don’t say he’s not overmatched. Too often he looks like a pitcher trying to hit.
A lot of the bats they are relying on to be run producers just aren’t off to great starts. Candelario, Torkelson, Schoop, Badoo, Haase all have sub-80 OPS+’s. Three of those guys have sub-50 OPS+’s. Plus losing Mize after just two starts for an extended period of time was just unlucky, but still affects them greatly.
@loveofgame
Greiner was barely the third string. Rogers had earned the starters job at C and his injury hurts the lineup and club house. If Greene hadn’t gotten hurt, they probably wouldn’t have given up Paredes, who would have had a shot at 2B or 3B perhaps as soon as next year. They seem to have lost confidence in Baddoo. They need to kick start the offence with his speed.
They are performing below expectations so far.
Short Spring Training leading to the injury bug
really hurt them more than most teams.
AJ Hinch teams always finish strong.
It might not be enough to savage this year .
They should get better when healthy. It’s going to be a tough climb out of an 8-19 hole.
Only good news: The whole division is struggling
Torkelson looks overmatched. Can’t believe the front office felt pressure to move one of their best prospects when he obviously wasn’t ready. Now they will have to deal with a PR nightmare when they have to send him back down to AAA where he should have started the year.
He doesn’t look overmatched to me at all. He doesn’t chase. He takes walks. He doesn’t swing at pitchers pitches in the zone. It appears, like most top rookies this year, that he’s getting the shaft with every pitch 4in outta the zone called a strike. He’ll be fine. He’s struggled every new place for about a month before figuring it out.
True. His Walk rate is down a smidge from the minors, but his K rate is way up. He is also suffering on a low BaBIP which suggests he is a bit unlucky.
That said, we are a month into the season so give him another week or two to see what happens. Hopefully he kicks it into gear, but if not, the Tigers cannot let him flail away all season without sending him back to Toledo to get his groove back. Neither he or Greene spent a ton of time in Toledo last year. I had my doubts that they would be ready from the get go.
But the struggles will be to his benefit in the long term, teaching him what it takes to succeed at the highest level. He will be fine
Yeah, there’s definitley some bad luck going on with him. He has a line drive rate just over 25% and is in the top 82nd percentile of exit velo. Currently has a .273 wOBA and .334 xwOBA.
Overall a solid review. I find 538’s prediction interesting. Tigers overachieved last year with 77 wins. Asking for a repeat of that was probably not realistic, yet many fans and media outlets had touted them as a possible playoff contender. That is likely going to take 90 wins even with playoff expansion. While I like Baez, Barnhart, Meadows, Rodriguez, Chafin, and Pineda, they don’t equal 13 wins.
Even IF that group was worth 13 wins, it would also require the Tigers to overachieve again this year with the players left over from last year. Miguel Cabrera is a year older and despite hitting 3000 hits (I was there!) and getting his 600th double, he is pretty much a singles hitter at this stage of his career. Guys like Baddoo and Haase had great years. But were they the start of something or just aberrations and both likely to regress? Haase had a negative OPS+ for his career prior to 2021 and Baddoo had only played as high as high A ball. Both are prime candidates for regression. Schoop has had an up and down career and the Tigers would need the up part.
Tigers would also need the young core of pitchers that debuted last year to continue to step forward. Tork and Green were coming up and we would need them to play well and not struggle like many young players do.
So that is a lot of things to go right for the Tigers to even have a shot at .500 much less contend for the playoffs. Of course we are a month into the season and the Tigers have started very slowly, just like last year. They will play better and win more games, but it makes 77 wins again this year seem like a stretch. Their pitching has actually been one of the bright spot this year despite Manning and Mize going out for a time (they are working their way back) and Chafin starting the year on the IL. The Tigers just haven’t hit a lick. Baddoo and Haase certainly look like the regression candidates they are, Schoop has struggled mightily. Candelario struggling as well but he is starting to finally heat up. Tork has struggled out off the gate, which was predictable. He struggled at first at every level he played last year before eventually getting it rolling. And Greene got hurt and likely won’t see the field in Detroit for a few months. He isn’t on the roster and the Tigers likely have him playing a minimum of 4-6 weeks in the minors once ready to allow him to get his sea legs.
So a lot has not gone right for the Tigers so far this year. Things will improve, this team will likely be fun to watch this summer. But it isn’t a playoff team despite the hype and may not get to the same win total as last year. But there is hope for the future with this team. That future isn’t this year though.
The Tigers had a Pythagorean W/L of 75-87 last year, so the overachieved by 2 wins. Regression by Haase & Badoo wouldn’t have had a significant impact since Baez, Meadows, Tork, Greene would make up the slack. 90 wins was overly optimistic but 82-85 wasn’t. However, with the injuries and slow start 77-80 looks more likely. Hopefully this season will mirror the 2008 season where big additions and changes actually set them back that year but laid the foundation for a long string of success.
The pitching depth being found during early season injuries is promising, but where’s the offence??!! I’d be posting on Indeed to see what options are available for batting coaches. Other than Baez, where’s the power? On paper, this line up looks better than what they’re getting. I still see .500 as a goal, but was not expecting the need to climb out of this deep a hole.
The Tigers seem to alternating between no offense and a strangely unlucky offense. They scored 1 run on 1 hit yesterday bs Houston but posted 11 hits against them on Saturday and only scored 2 runs. Games like Saturday’s should start turning into Ws.
Very sad that with all these expectations and hope we had to start the season it’s already over! And the Tigers haven’t even played 30 games. Not sure who more pissed off, ilitch, Avila, Hinch or us the fans???
The rebuild base wasn’t ready to start acquiring free agents. In fact, there is no plan to establish a base. That’s out the door.
Please. Their top SP prospects have been in the league for a couple of seasons they have Candi at 3B, Tork @ 1B, Meadows in OF, Greene in the OF, Rogers @ C when he returns and/or Barnhart. The gaping hole was at SS which Baez fills. You wait any longer and Mize, Skubal, Candi get too close to FA and get expensive. Now is the perfect time. This team finds its groove, you identify gaps, fill those in the off season while the window is opening.
How many home grown, or acquired while still controllable players does a team need to meet your requirements for a base? 5 starting pitchers with more on the way. (Mize, Skubal, Manning, Brieske, Faedo, and Turnbull) 4 members of the pen (Soto, Fulmer, Lange, Funkhouser, Vest and Jimenez), 4 infielders (Candelario, Torkelson, H. Castro, R.Castro) with more on the way. 4 OFs (Baddoo, Meadows, Greene, Hill, Reyes) and Rogers at C. That’s 20 players that are currently on the major league roster at controllable, low salaries.
I think it’s more of an issue of quality, reliable pieces vs. just quantity of controllable players. I don’t necessarily agree that it was too early for Det to start adding, but a lot of the players that you mentioned aren’t consistent quality players on a playoff team.
Almost none of the players he listed are major league starters on a good team.
Every team can fill bodies w young guys.
Tigers have had some bad luck with the lockout and shortened Spring Training not allowing the proper preparation for the regular season and contributing to early season injuries.
The Tigers will get “untracked” AJ Hinch’s teams always play better than they look on paper and that will eventually help the Tigers again this year.
Their 2nd straight year of slow starts hurts their playoff contention chances.
They played 69-63 to the finish after a slow start last year which would have been good enough for playoffs contention last year without the terrible April start.
The Tigers had a very difficult early schedule also…playing many top playoff teams early.
This becomes a “bridge year” where some of the young talent gets up to speed on the league for 2023 contention. Catchers Rogers and Dillion Dingler will see time in 2023.
Meadows was a good pickup, but I hated to see them give up on Paredes
(should have offered the Rays someone else). I saw Paredes taking over @3B.
Candelario should have been traded at “peak value” in the offseason.
The Tigers will be on the fringes of contention in 2022 and in contention in 2023 as their new window of contention opens up.
Tigers lack power, and Candelario led the league in doubles. It was not the time to move him. Workman is still a year or two away.
Paredes[ couild have taken over @3B.
Tigers should have given the Rays another player for Austin Meadows.
The time to move him was last offseason or before this season started when Candelario was in high demand(all the clubs that missed out on Chapman would have had interest and more)…
C was at “peak value” after last year.
Tigers did not maximize their asset.
Paredes will never amount to anything more than a journeyman MLB player, if that. He got bypassed by several other prospects this spring such as Kreidler, Santana and Clemens so obtaining an impact bat in Meadows like we did is a steal of a deal. I’d want Avila to make that same trade 100 times out of 100
Paredes will be Willy Adames 2.0
OR Eugenio Saurez 2.0
Paredes is already playing 3B and getting key hits for the Rays.
Meadows is terrible. They picked him up for power and he has ZERO Home Runs. Seems like he’s been stuck on 11 RBI for a two weeks. Another wise move by the Rays.
Meadows was a helluva steal.
Isaac Paredes just homered twice in one game against the Tigers. Austin who?
Detroit is just not there yet. A lot of fans overestimated their chances out of the gate.
I thought they came out of their rebuild
1-2 years early.
So many, many missed opportunities this off-season. It is horrendous.