We’re more than a quarter of the way through the 2022 season, which makes a look ahead to the forthcoming offseason and free agent class overdue. The 2022-23 free agent market can’t match this past winter’s market in terms of the sheer volume of available star power, but it’s a strong group nevertheless, with a few MVP candidates slated to reach free agency for the first time.
MLBTR will take periodic looks at the top of the class from now through the remainder of the season, and it’s of course worth noting that with about 75% of games left to be played, a lot can change. Our power rankings, compiled collaboratively by myself, Anthony Franco and MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes, are based on what we believe to be a player’s total earning power in free agency. As such, age plays a prominent factor in that equation. Players with opt-out clauses and player options are included, even if they’ve previously given strong indications they’ll forgo any such opportunity to return to the market (as Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado has in the past). Current performance is also, obviously, crucial. A strong platform year can elevate any player’s status in free agency, just as a poor walk year can tank their stock.
Here’s a look at our current top ten, as well as a handful of honorable mentions who could see themselves climb into the top ten by season’s end…
1. Aaron Judge, RF, Yankees: When Yankees general manager Brian Cashman made the surprising decision to announce the terms of the contract that was offered to (and rejected by) Judge — a seven-year, $213.5MM extension — there were plenty of onlookers convinced Judge had made a sizable misstep. A $30.5MM annual salary over seven years would place him among the game’s top earners but not quite in the elite tier.
A slow start might’ve made the decision look questionable, but Judge has gone the opposite route. He’s been the best qualified hitter in baseball aside from Mike Trout, by measure of wRC+, leading the Majors in homers and trailing only Trout in slugging percentage by the narrowest of margins (.693 to .692). Judge is walking at a 10.7% clip, his strikeouts (26.6%) are down a good bit from his earlier seasons when rates around 31% were his norm, and his batted-ball profile has practically broken Statcast. Judge is averaging a comical 96.9 mph off the bat this season, and he’s ripped 64% of his batted balls at greater than 95 mph.
Judge’s free-agent contract will begin with his age-31 season, and that’s one distinct disadvantage to him — particularly relative to younger free agents like the trio of shortstops who directly follow him on this ranking. That said, there’s simply no discounting the fact that Judge’s offense is on a new level this season, which is saying something given the high bar he’s previously established. If he maintains even 75% of this pace for the remainder of the season, that seven-year term and $30.5MM AAV are both going to feel light. Right now, an eight-year deal at a heartier AAV is easy to imagine, and the longer Judge keeps hitting like this, the more those numbers will increase.
2. Carlos Correa, SS, Twins: Correa was fortunate to dodge a broken finger when he was plunked on the hand recently, instead only sitting out a minimal 10-day stint due to a bone bruise. The former No. 1 overall pick shocked the baseball world by signing the fourth-largest AAV ever with the Twins ($35.1MM) — albeit on a three-year deal laden with opt-out provisions. The commonly held belief is that Correa will opt out after the 2022 season and return to the market in search of the long-term mega-deal that eluded him this past offseason.
Whether that contract is there will hinge both on how many games Correa plays and on how well he performs in his new environs. He got out to a slow start in Minnesota but repeatedly insisted that he wasn’t worried, and his confidence has begun to manifest into production. Correa is hitting .382/.443/.545 over his past 61 plate appearances, and even when he was struggling through poor results before that, he was making loads of hard contact. He’s not on pace to match last year’s career-best defensive numbers, but no one is disputing that the 2021 Platinum Glover is anything less than a top-notch defensive player.
It’s fair to wonder whether Correa will be able to secure a 10-year contract with a premium annual value after the closest he came this past offseason was a reported 10-year, $275MM offer from the Tigers prior to the lockout. Even if Correa “settles” for a seven- or eight-year contract, though, the fact that he’ll play nearly all of the 2023 season at age 28 is a huge point in his favor. An eight-year deal would only run through Correa’s age-35 season, and a lengthier pact can’t be ruled out if he continues to pick up the pace at the plate.
3. Trea Turner, SS, Dodgers: Turner and Correa could arguably be flipped in ordering here, but I’m listing him third due to the fact that he’s more than a year older. While he may be a lesser defender and possess less power than Correa, he’s still a good defensive shortstop with above-average pop. He’s also been more durable in recent years with better contact skills and more value on the basepaths. Some teams will prefer Correa. Some will prefer Turner. Both will be in demand. Both will get paid — a lot.
Broadly speaking, there are very, very few players who present as much all-around value as Turner. He’s unlikely to rip 30 home runs or lead the league in on-base percentage, but Turner is a perennial 20-homer, 40-steal threat with a track record of above-average defensive marks, a lower-than-average strikeout rate and a lifetime .302/.358/.488 batting line. He slugged a career-high 28 home runs in 2021 and was hitting at a similar pace in 2020’s shortened season, but he’s only left the yard thrice in 184 plate appearances this year.
Even if Turner reverts to his prior levels of power, there’s no real weakness in his game. He’s a dependable four- to five-WAR player who showed in 2021 that he has six- to seven-WAR upside when at his absolute best. Turner will turn 30 on June 30 in the first year of his new contract, and it’s reasonable to expect that he could find a lucrative eight-year deal in free agency. One thing worth keeping an eye on: defensive metrics are quite down on his early work (-3 DRS, -6 OAA).
4. Xander Bogaerts, SS, Red Sox: The most consistent hitter among this trio of shortstops, Bogaerts would top Correa and Turner were he even viewed as an average defender at the position. Instead, his glovework has struggled so much that there was a good bit of drama surrounding whether he’d move off the position upon Boston’s signing of Trevor Story.
Bogaerts can opt out of the final three years and $60MM on his contract, and he’s a lock to do so even with the shaky defensive skill set at shortstop. He’s hitting .323/.385/.458 as of this writing and carries a gaudy .300/.372/.518 slash (135 wRC+) dating back to 2018. Bogaerts’ career-high 33 home runs came during the juiced ball season, and he’s otherwise been more of a 20- to 25-homer bat. He’s been remarkably consistent in terms of his solid walk rates, lower-than-average strikeout rates and batting averages, though, and any team that signs him can feel confident it’s getting a true middle-of-the-order threat.
The question will be just what position he plays, as there won’t be many (if any) teams comfortable with the idea of playing Bogaerts at shortstop for the next six-plus years. A team could play him there in the early stages of a new contract, but Bogaerts will likely be viewed by some teams as a second baseman or third baseman only. He’s never posted a positive total in Defensive Runs Saved and only has once in Outs Above Average (back in 2017). For his career, he’s at -58 DRS and -42 OAA. His bat might still carry him to an eight-year deal, but Bogaerts’ days as a shortstop are likely dwindling — and the market could well reflect that reality.
5. Joe Musgrove, RHP, Padres: Musgrove, 30 in December, has improved his stock every year since 2017, either by improving his rate stats or his innings count. It’s been a steady march toward his current top-of-the-rotation status, and he’s now poised to cash in next winter with a blend of youth and general excellence that currently has him as MLBTR’s top-earning starter.
Since Musgrove ramped up his curveball usage in 2020, he’s pitched to a combined 3.03 ERA with a 27.7% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate in 273 innings. He’s not missing as many bats in 2022 as he did in 2020-21, but strikeouts are down leaguewide and he’s offsetting that with a career-best 4.4% walk rate in 52 innings so far. Musgrove currently boasts a microscopic 1.90 ERA in 52 innings. He ranks in the 82nd percentile or better in fastball spin rate (97th), curveball spin rate (82nd), opponents’ chase rate (93rd), walk percentage (89th), average exit velocity (84th), expected ERA (87th), expected wOBA (87th) and expected slugging percentage (83rd), per Statcast.
Musgrove might not be a household name whose track record is littered with All-Star appearances and Cy Young votes, but his current trajectory should change that. A five-year deal feels like the floor, and a healthier six-year pact seems likely.
6. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Cardinals: Arenado has said in the past that he plans to remain in St. Louis for the long haul after being traded over from the Rockies, so this could very well be a moot point. He made good on those promises by forgoing the first opt-out opportunity in his contract this past offseason, but the Cardinals tacked an extra year (at $15MM) and an extra opt-out provision onto his contract upon acquiring him.
If Arenado continues anywhere near his current pace, it’ll at least be more tempting to see what the market might bear. Shedding the “product of Coors Field” narrative in full this year, Arenado is raking at a .288/.351/.545 pace — all with his typical brand of elite defense (5 Defensive Runs Saved, 4 Outs Above Average, 3.5 Ultimate Zone Rating in just 324 innings).
Arenado has five years and $144MM remaining on his contract following the 2022 season and will turn 32 next April. The remaining five years will carry Arenado through his age-36 season at a rate that’s lighter than many of the game’s top-end stars. We’ve seen infielders Freddie Freeman, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Josh Donaldson all sign free-agent deals that run through their age-37 seasons in recent years. Again, the likeliest outcome is that Arenado stays put — based on the infielder’s own wording — but if he does choose to test the market, the earning power will be there.
7. Jacob deGrom, RHP, Mets: If deGrom were healthier, he’d be higher on this list, age be damned. However, deGrom hasn’t pitched since July 7, 2021 due to a forearm strain that ended his 2021 season and a stress reaction in his scapula (shoulder blade) that has prevented him from pitching so far in 2022.
No one needs much of a primer on just how dominant deGrom is when he’s healthy. He’s a two-time Cy Young winner and probably would’ve won a third in 2021 with better health. He posted a superhuman 1.08 ERA, 45.1% strikeout rate and 3.4% walk rate in 92 innings while averaging 99.1 mph on his fastball last year. A healthy deGrom is very arguably the best pitcher on the planet — evidenced by the 1.94 ERA he’s compiled over his past 581 innings.
DeGrom is signed through 2023 (plus a 2024 club option) but has said, even with his injury, that he’ll opt out of the contract and forgo the $30.5MM he’s guaranteed next year. If he can return in late June or early July and dominate down the stretch, a multi-year deal in the neighborhood of teammate Max Scherzer’s record-setting $43.33MM annual salary is in play. Even if deGrom struggles or doesn’t throw a pitch in 2022, a team would likely top that $30.5MM salary to bring him in on a short-term, ultra-high-risk gamble.
8. Carlos Rodon, LHP, Giants: Drafted with the No. 3 overall pick back in 2014, Rodon was heralded as a potential top-of-the-rotation arm for the White Sox He eventually achieved that status, but not until the seventh year of his Major League career. For Rodon’s first six years, he was an oft-injured power arm who’d flash ace potential but lacked both the consistency and the durability to get there.
Durability remains a concern after Rodon pitched just 36 innings over the 2021 season’s final 10 weeks due to shoulder fatigue. He remained effective during that time but worked with a diminished fastball and was not given a qualifying offer by the White Sox — despite his elite production (on a per-inning basis). But what Rodon has done since that 2021 breakout is prove that he is, when healthy, a bona fide No. 1 starter.
Over his past 177 1/3 innings, Rodon has a 2.64 ERA with a dominant 34.5% strikeout rate against just a 7.4% walk rate. Since Opening Day 2021, Rodon leads all Major League pitchers (min. 100 innings) in strikeout percentage. He ranks 10th in swinging-strike rate and owns the eighth-lowest opponents’ contact rate on pitches inside the strike zone. Rodon can opt out of the second year and $22.5MM on his current contract if he pitches 110 innings this season. If he can make 30 starts this year, there’s probably a five-year deal waiting for him in free agency — especially when considering the fact that he won’t turn 30 until December.
9. Willson Contreras, C, Cubs: Clearly the top catcher on next winter’s market, Contreras has gotten out to a strong start in 2022, hitting at a .258/.382/.458 clip with five homers through his first 144 plate appearances. That puts him roughly on pace for what would be the fourth 20-homer season of his career. Contreras, a two-time All-Star, ranks fourth among all catchers (min. 500 plate appearances) in fWAR and fifth in wRC+ dating back to the 2019 season. He just turned 30 earlier this month, making the first season of a new contract his age-31 campaign.
Contreras’ reps will surely be looking to topple Yasmani Grandal’s four-year, $73MM deal with the White Sox. With a strong enough finish, Contreras could reasonably push to join the likes of J.T. Realmuto, Yadier Molina and Buster Posey as catchers who earned $20MM-plus annually during their prime.
10. Brandon Nimmo, CF, Mets: Perennially underrated, Nimmo doesn’t get the love he deserves when looking at his career production. There’s no skirting the huge injury risk associated with him, but when he’s been healthy enough to take the field, Nimmo’s elite plate discipline and above-average power have resulted in production that’s 35% better than that of a league-average hitter, by measure of wRC+. Nimmo has walked in 14.6% of his career plate appearances en route to a .269/.392/.445 batting line. He’s only reached double-digit homers once in his career, though that’s due to injuries and to the shortened 2020 season (when he played in 55 of 60 games and popped eight homers). On a rate basis, however, Nimmo’s career .176 ISO (slugging minus average) is comfortably north of league average.
Like Contreras, Nimmo is the best player at his position and arguably the only free-agent option for a team seeking an everyday center fielder. He hasn’t graded out as an elite defensive center fielder, but Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average all think he’s been an above-average defender there over the past two seasons. He’s not a huge stolen base threat, but Statcast credits Nimmo with 92nd percentile sprint speed dating back to 2021.
Some teams will balk at the injury history, while others may not be keen on promising a weighty guarantee to a player who’s never reached 20 home runs in a season. However, we’ve seen OBP- and defense-driven center fielders like Dexter Fowler and Lorenzo Cain cash in before. A fifth year may be hard to come by, but a strong four-year deal seems attainable. Another prolonged absence could quickly drop Nimmo off this list, but as things stand right now, Nimmo is the type of free agent who’ll probably surprise fans with the contract he ultimately signs.
Honorable Mentions: Justin Verlander, Sean Manaea, Edwin Diaz, Dansby Swanson, Josh Bell, Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi, Zach Eflin
What?!?! How could you not include [Insert name here of one of my favorite players who is actually not that very good and maybe will not even be a free agent after this year]????
How could they not include both Lorenzo Cain AND Kolten Wong?!?!?!?
The nerve.
Judge will be a New York Met
And deGrom will be a Yankee.
No thanks
I wasn’t being serious. Unless you were responding to Hirschen. Hard to tell with the threading.
Contreras will be a Mariner. At least one could hope. Catcher has been a huge hole for us. He could fill it nicely for a few years. Overpay if you must with a front loaded contract so if he slows down or we have something better work their way up we can trade him or use him as a teacher.
I don’t know about the Mariners but any team that signs Contreras needs to make sure he can DH regularly.
Contreras’s offensive numbers on the days he catches are not all that impressive which isn’t surprising giving all the work before the game and physical toll it takes throughout.
Contreras is really good behind the plate so you definitely do not want to sign strictly as DH but you also have to get him at bats at that position.
I would put JV behind Arenado.
To get to that spot, Verlander would need to be able to get a three-year deal, which I don’t think is completely out of the question. I’m the high guy on Verlander, relative to Tim and Anthony, but even I would like to see how he holds up through more than just eight starts, post-TJ at 39 years old, before moving him ahead of the others.
If Verlander keeps going at this rate, or close to it, he’ll probably hit the list at No. 9 or No. 10 by season’s end. The back few spots right now are under $100MM in total earning power, and with a big enough showing it’s not crazy to think Verlander could get a record-setting two-year deal ($90MM?) or a three-year deal that, like Scherzer, vaults him into nine figures.
We haven’t seen it for a 39-going-on-40 pitcher before, but we’ve also never seen a future Hall of Famer like Verlander at near-peak form and vocally expressing a desire to pitch until he’s 45. His will be a fun situation to follow.
Hey Steve, is there any possibility of a “Where are they now?” type of article reviewing the top free agents of this past offseason? Too soon?
That’s a great idea imo but go back a little farther, like 5 years.
Justin Verlander is actually Tom Brady.
I understand his age will restrict the total years of his contract, but he’s on path to win the AL Cy Young, which he won his last full season in 2019. Finished second in 2018. So that would be 2nd, 1st, 1st. Is a 4/160 out of question?he has to be somewhere in that top ten list.
Probably requires Cohen money to get up to the $40 million AAV. I can see certainly see a 3/105 as a minimum if he maintains his current pace, so I’m not seeing 160 million, but more than likely enough to be in the $100 million-plus range to make the top ten list.
JV will be fascinating to watch. Not just his contract, but how he ages. So far he’s not!
4/160 for ages 39-43, after the guy missed two seasons due to a bad arm… after 8 starts? hahaha yeah thats the dumbest contract suggestion in a while here. bravo
People like saying dumb stuff like that because it’s not there money. They live in this fantasy world where money grows on trees and these billionaires got their billionaires but just throwing money at everyone and everything.
Last time I checked, Ward was still out producing both Trout and Judge at the plate.
With that said, Judge is a beast but I wouldn’t want any part of Judge and long term contract.. he struggles staying healthy now and I don’t see if getting better. Sure teams can slap him at DH and hope for the best but that is not a risk vs reward I’m willing to take.
Of that list, I would take Bogarts over anyone as long as he was willing to move off shortstop and then I’d take Turner over Correa.
The fact that Ward is outperforming those players this early in the season means NOTHING in terms of overall assessment.
When the statement was referring to this season is does and right now Ward has a higher OBP, Slugging % and OPS+ than either of those two.
It can be both true and irrelevant.
I suppose I should’ve specified “among qualified hitters,” which Ward is not right now.
“…and then I’d take Turner over Correa.”
Of course you would. Why would anyone want a younger, better fielder, with more power?
Health for starters… but you do realize that Turner has a higher slugging percentage than Correa right? Last season, Turner hit more home runs and more triples, tied Correa in doubles and swiped 32 more bags while playing in two more pitcher friendly ballparks. But you probably already knew that right?
Turner has also lead the league in hits the past two seasons and had 40 more hits than Correa last season.
So far this season, Turner’s triple slash line is stronger than Correa’s…
Turner is higher in both categories (for now), but if you’re measuring extra-base power, ISO (slugging minus average) is far more telling. Turner also has a higher slugging percentage than Corey Seager, who has eight homers to Turner’s three. A high batting average can prop up slugging percentage for awhile, even if it’s a product of lots of singles dropping in at an unsustainable pace.
Historically speaking, Correa’s hit for a bit more power and played much better defense. Turner has been a bit more durable, a much better baserunner and hit for better averages.
We’re a split camp between Turner vs. Correa even on the MLBTR team, though. They’re going to be close in earning power, at least as things stand. Correa’s recent tear at the plate has him trending upward, though, and he’s 15 months younger. Age matters greatly in free agency.
You’re obviously placing too much importance on small samples. Some journeyman can out-perform Mike Trout over a small span of time.
Health? They both debuted in 2015, and Correa has played 51 more games than Turner.
Over their careers Correa has more HRs and 2Bs. Granted, Turner is one of the fastest guys in MLB so it’s not surprising that he has significantly more 3Bs, but then that’s not really about how much power each has.
ISO is a better gauge of power than SLG. Over his career Correa has a .201 ISO, and Turner has a .186. Turner’s career high in ISO was .253, Correa’s was .289.
At SS, Turner has career numbers of 7 DRS and 7 OAA. Correa is at 70 DRS and 26 OAA. Correa is a far superior defender.
Speed is a critical part of Turner’s game. It’s a great skill, but it’s one that may not age as well, and when he loses a step, it may impact all aspects of his game, not just defense. BA, SBs and defense. Correa’s excellent defense isn’t based on speed, and his power likely holds, if not increases, when he enters his 30s. Not a prediction on who would be a better signing, but Turner’s game being so wrapped up in his legs might give me some pause when balancing it against the length of the deal.
Really tad? You’re gonna claim that Turner’s Sept. call up in 2015 is equal to Correa’s 99 games+ ROY? Turner was ROY eligible the following year he played so little in 2015! But hey, facts
Last 4 seasons;
Turner has played in 162, 122, 59(of 60), 148 and 43/44 in 2022
Correa has played in 110, 75, 58(of 60), 148, 30/44 in 2022
Therefore, since 2018, Turner has played in 533 games with 2398 PA. Correa has played in 421 games with 1770 PAs. Literally an entire season of PAs. In fact! Correa has only TWICE taken as many plate appearances (628) as that gap in production, in ANY year.
Nice mental math attempt, but it’s not close
From BB Ref:
Turner: 8 years 781 games. 3213 PAs.
Correa: 8 years, 782 games, 3351 PAs.
Not sure what your problem is with me. That I’m a Giants fan? Well, whatever. You can cherry pick all you want, but the bottom line is, Correa has been just as available as Turner over their careers, which is what I said in my post, and have been saying.
Also, you’re wrong about when Turner got called up. It was 8/21. The difference between that, and when Correa was called up on 6/8, is 74 calendar days. You’re going to tell me that 74 days over 8 years makes Correa hugely unavailable and Turner durable?
You’re Dodger bias is clearly evident.
You think Correa’s power is going to increase when he couldn’t stay on the field, and had middling power in his “prime” 20’s (while hitting in a bandbox home stadium, WITH the benefit of cheating!?)? You also realize that his speed disappeared 5 years ago already? I can’t believe just how brain dead fans can be when they look at Correa and don’t see him for what he is; the most overrated, overhyped, overpaid figure perhaps ever in pro sports.
@htrab waaaaaaaaaaaah! Correa smashed your favorite team and now you are trying to say he’s no good? Freaking hilarious.
My point has been made for me by Correa this year; NO speed, still only middling power, missing time for an ahem, “bruised finger,” and the so-called defensive whiz has 3 DRS and 12%tile among his SS peers defensively to date. 3 years, 105 million for that? Still gonna simp for him, or is real gonna recognize real? And shoot no man, my team hasn’t sniffed a playoff birth in a decade +, so my disdain for Correa is just built on the genuine fact that’s he insanely overrated.
And more speed!
Tad, sorry but Turner is more valuable than Correa, who is scary good but…..
@drascoe, that’s interesting, as Bogaerts is the player I think is the top free agent who will lead to the quickest buyer’s remorse. They’ll be acquiring him knowing he’s likely going to have to move off SS, which will negate part of his value. Defense is a young man’s skill, and Bogaerts was never a premium defender in his 20s, so whomever signs him gets a SS now over 30. Defensively, he doesn’t have any cushion room for decline, unlike a Lindor or Correa who are plus defenders. Now, add in his hitting, which is heavily aided by Fenway. For his career, he’s basically a .310 hitter at home, .270 away. There’s a 130 pt. swing in OPS too. His increased HR power in recent years corresponded with the jacked up ball. So it’s entirely possible a team that signs him to a 7+ year deal may see a .275 hitter with 10 HRs and declining defense in year one with an owner asking his GM “how much did we pay here and why?” I’m not saying he’s a bad player, he’s good, but he’s not great, but he wants great money. He’s a player who can be overvalued.
Bogaerts really should remain in Boston. He plays well there, fans love him, he’s banked a lot of goodwill. He won’t have any of that on his new team. The Red Sox may be banking on his market being more tepid than Bogaerts expects and stepping in to sign him at a lower amount. Or, maybe they always planned to move the superior defensive player in Story to replace Bogaerts at SS and replace Story at 2B with someone from the farm, saving a lot of money. Doesn’t that sound like something Bloom would do? Bogaerts may not even get an offer from the Red Sox.
As I said, I wouldn’t sign Bogaerts to play short stop, third or second however depending on what the scouts think.
I’m not concerned with home/away splits unless I’m looking at moving him to some place like LA, Oakland, Seattle etc. but that is with any hitter, not just Xander. A lot of players hit better at home than on the road.
I don’t think Bogaerts is a guy that is going to all the sudden lose power, his hit tool is too good. He has a good eye at the plate, doesn’t strike out too much and he can hit fastballs, off-speed and breaking pitches.
With all that said, I’m not going to pretend that I follow Bogaerts all that much. I see him play from time to time and he looks solid and his stats back it up. I’m not a red sox fan so I cannot offer a whole lot of insight to his day to day stuff.
As for Story, I think the Red Sox are going to regret that decision…
Although I would normally agree with your Turner over Correa assessment, objectively speaking, I would have to see how Turner finishes at season’s end defensively. His SS play this year is….concerning, to say the least.
Turner had been underrated in the past, imo. He was one of, if not the, top SS in the game. This year his defense is suffering. I would not sign a 30+ guy to man SS, @ SS money, for 8 years who already can’t field the position anymore. And I am a huge Turner fan. Defense excepted, I’d take Turner over just about every other SS in the league, without question.
Clipper:
Defensive metrics are even less telling over small samples than batting stats are. Fangraphs suggested at least 2 full seasons to accurately judge.
While I do think Correa is the far superior defender, I’m skeptical of Turner’s bad defensive numbers this season. Up until this season he had 10 DRS, and 13 OAA. I can’t believe that he’s suddenly lost the ability to field over a span of 42 games.
I’d be curious to see what Dodger fans who see Turner daily think, or what any talent evaluators have to say about Turner’s defense. I look at advanced metrics for guidance, but only guidance. I never make any final decision on them. Also, we’re still dealing with SSS here. A bad stretch, an undisclosed injury, can cause a lot of noise in the data. That’s why it’s important to understand what’s going on with the player, and to lay eyes on the player to see if the defensive metrics match the talent assessment.
Fangraphs suggests three years of defensive metrics, tad, not two. But your point is well taken.
“Beware of sample sizes! If a player only spent 50 innings at a position last season, it’d be a good idea not to draw too many conclusions from their UZR score over that time. Like with any defensive statistic, you should always use three years of UZR data before trying to draw any conclusions on the true talent level of a fielder.”
Despite Correa’s advantage in age, his injury history is much more concerning.
Turner’s two longest IL stints resulted from HBPs. Other than those and 10 days on the Covid IL, he’s only missed 13 days with a barking hammy five years ago.
Correa is taller and heavier, a big man for a shortstop, and that doesn’t bode well for his long-term viability at short, particularly with his history of recurring back problems.
Also, contrary to what some have said in this thread, Turner’s BA, OBP, SLG, and wRC+ are all better than Correa’s, not only this year, but since 2018; and his ISO has been better since 2019.
Fink Ployd:
That 3 years worth of data is specific to UZR, which I don’t use. At one time it had validity, but it does not take into account whether the fielder is in a shift. With shifts so ubiquitous throughout the sport, omitting that aspect, makes their value questionable to me.
I’m not sure about your take on their availability. Correa’s lack is overrated. Both came up in 2015. Turner came up in the 3rd week in August, Correa in the second week in June. Over their careers Correa has played 51 more games. That earlier call up more than accounts for that, but overall their availability has been about equal.
People said the same thing re Correa and Seager. Yet factoring in Seager’s Sept. call up, their availability was also about equal.
Correa has a higher ceiling. As noted in an earlier post. Turner’s career best ISO was .253, a while Correa’s was .289.
Correa is close to the same size as Cal Ripken Jr. and he had a nice long career.
People in general just don’t like Correa. Maybe it’s the Astro’s cheating scandal, maybe something else. but it’s like they look for excuses to prefer a different guy over him. I mean, seriously, preferring a guy like Bogaerts? That makes zero sense.
“Like with any defensive statistic, you should always use three years”
Yes, Ripkin was as tall as Correa and just 20 pounds lighter, but he also played in 2,632 consecutive games until he was 38 years old. He had nothing like Correa’s injury history.
Its not specify to UZR. It also applies to DRS. The guy that developed DRS said 400-450 games of data at a specific position. So roughly 3 seasons full time to get an accurate assessment of defensive performance.
Yup totally a Pads Fans comment
Id go
Turner
Bogs
Carlos
Character matters a lot in this long term pacts to teams nowadays. It’s why Id bet Carlos had a limited market this offseason only fetching a 1 ~3 yr deal
These deals also have some marketing aspects tied into them as well as owners no doubt look at them as an investment and some sort of a ROI is probably factored in
Nobody {really} wants Correa on their billboards outside the stadium …not even Houston
I don’t think that is accurate with Correa, especially not in Houston. The guy was loved by the fan base and his team.
People hate on Correa because his involvement in the “cheating scandal” in what, his rookie year? Second year maybe? They treat him like he was the ring leader as opposed to a guy who owned up to it.
Correa, unlike the rest of his coward teammates at a young age took the leadership role and the criticism that went along with it. Bregman popped off at the mouth in 2018 saying, “we won’t have a World Series hang over like the cubs, we’re better than the cubs” but sat in the corner like the coward he is hoping the smoke would clear. Where was his brash outspokenness then?
Back to Correa and Houston, the guy did a ton of charity work in the Houston area, before he started making tens of millions of dollars. Lots of players donate money after they sign 100 million guaranteed but Correa was donate a lot while he was playing year to year.
With that said, I do think some teams shied away from him due to the negative pr but I fully believe Correa would have won the city over. I wish the cubs would have signed him personally (and I’m the record for saying I prefer Turner) but I formulate my own opinion based on research vs listening to what the media wants to believe. And I also look at perspective, cultural icon (for Correa) Carlos Beltran came up with the sign stealing, Correa was very early in his career, what was he going to say, no. No Carlos, I know better at 21 than you sir. I’ve been in the game long enough… please.
Lastly, Correa, when he was just a nobody prospect went to a kid, introduced himself, and gave him the bat he was using for batting practice. I’ve seen career minor leaguers great fans worse than Correa
Cap & Crunch:
I can understand preferring Turner to Correa, though I disagree about that. They have slightly different games. Correa better D, more power, and Turner much better speed, triple and SB threat.
But to prefer Bogaerts over Correa is delusional. Bogaerts is a liability at SS (-58 DRS, -42 OAA). A huge aspect of their value is playing a premier defensive position.
Take him away from short, as anyone that signs him should do, and his value is significantly less. There’s a reason why the Sox signed Story when they already had Bogaerts.
Correa, lol. We’re all still living in fantasy land, back in 2015? Eventually we’ll all wake up and realize he’s one of the most overrated, overhyped, overpaid scrubs that pro sports has ever seen. Doesn’t stay on the field, phantom injury after phantom injury. When he manages to stay on the field, has shown middling power despite hitting in a bandbox of a stadium in Houston. NO SPEED WHATSOEVER. None. Stole a few bags as a rookie, then Houston locked him down obviously trying to keep he (as well as Altuve and Springer), healthy. He’s carried that onto MN however, and is demonstrating that he’s truly a station to station “athlete” despite his relative “young” baseball age. Solid defender? Sure, I’ll grant him that. Now, how does this amount to someone that feels like they can demand/command 20-30 million per year and a massive contract? Who in the hell is going to pay that? If they do, they may as well just throw the cash in an incinerator right now and save themselves the time.
@drasco036 Sounds right re Judge. If you’re going to pay him significantly more than 7/210m for his age 31+ seasons just because he had a peak year (assuming) at age 30, you deserve what you get.
That offer had to do with Judge’s history with the Yankees, which of course he won’t have with any other team. Judge is the kind of guy who, after he descends into mediocrity and worse, will still have rabid fans who think he’s the cat’s arse—but only in New York and only if he remains on the Yankees. That devotion has value to a team, but only if that team is the Yankees. Judge is simply too old to build that devotion anywhere else.
Otherwise, why would you pay a significant premium to a fine, old ballplayer coming off a career year? Is some GM really deranged enough to go to something like 8/250m? Is Judge really worth 100m more than Freeman, Goldschmidt, and other corner guys?
If Judge doesn’t get hurt or suffer a steep drop in performance, he might get 7/210m away from NY, ie the Freddie Freeman scenario where player gets huffy and is fortunate enough to find some team to give him his original team’s offer.
Bogaerts would fit perfectly on the Phillies at SS as they have a thing about having a lineup with strong bats and below average fielding ability.
Below average?
That is putting it pretty gently.
Thanks, no interest. I think (hope, I guess) the Phils will focus on defense up the middle, even if the corners in the OF and IF aren’t top-notch defensively.
Conforto?
Who knows if Conforto will be a FA next season.
He’s going to sit out most, if not all of the 2022 season due to shoulder surgery after a fairly pedestrian 2021 season. The list is based on earning power, and Conforto won’t be near any of the listed players in terms of market expectations.
Nice try Scott.
Judge’s free-agency is bound to be fascinating. Like Steve’s piece mentions, his age doesn’t help him, but he’s never produced even close to subpar results aside from his 27-game stint in ’16 — consistently well-above avg, teetering on elite at times.
There’s been rumblings by pundits on how his bigger body may age, and paired with a history of nagging injuries that could be a concern. At this rate, he’ll surpass the extension offer, but it will be interesting to see by how much.
I personally would not give over 30 million to a corner outfielder/future DH. A middle infielder who produces like a middle of the order bat and provides plus defense yes, a center fielder with the same, also yes. A corner outfielder, not unless I can pencil in Bonds type numbers.
What corner outfielder not named Ruth has Bonds-type numbers besides Bonds?
How about Ted Williams?
That’s the point.
Mr. Cohen and the Mets will step in here……
If he can steal Judge from the Yankees he wins NYC. The money / a bad long-term contract doesn’t matter to him.
On the other hand if he forces the Yankees to overpay long-term then he wins anyway……the Mets will become the focus of NYC baseball as the Yankees will be limited in what they can pay other players.
NYC sports media drama will take over the off-season.
In all reality, Mets are a better fit for Judge, while Nimmo is a better fit for the Yanks.
Cohen has F* You Money and can pay whatever lux tax it takes.
The Yanks are going to pay Donaldson – Cole – Stanton about 80M with another 30M going to Rizzo/DJ
thats 110M on 5 players right there.
Chapman is a UFA at the end of the year
Gallo is a UFA too
Montgomery is a UFA too
Tallison is a UFA too
IKF is approaching FA too
@Samuel Doubtful, or I should say ‘Cohen shouldn’t.’ The Mets are already an extremely old team. Saddling themselves with a player in his decline phase who gets hurt a lot and will be in his mid30s for most of a 30m+ AVV deal doesn’t make sense for them.
You “win” New York but putting up a perennially good team, or at least a team with the crescendo of the mid-80s Mets; probably not by snagging one of the Yankees best players and winning 83 games with an ancient club.
Is Judge at 31 to 37 the best expenditure of something like $210 million and a 7-year commitment? Probably not.
Teetering on elite?
Do you know how many players have a higher wRC+ than Judge since 2017? One. Mike Trout.
Only Trout, Betts and Ramirez have a higher fWAR; only Trout, Soto and Tatis, Jr. have a higher OPS; Only Trout and Soto have a higher wOBA; and nobody has as many home runs.
Since 2017, he’s fourth in Defensive Runs Saved among all outfielders, and in the 7th rank in Assists..
Small Sample Size Theater. Judge has been consistent in what he has accomplished the last 4 years. This season so far is an outlier. He will regress to close to the numbers he has put up the last 4 seasons. He will be in his age 31 season in 2023 and we know he will decline. We also know that soon he will be a DH only player. All of that says clearly that signing him to a bigger contract than the Yankees offered is not a smart baseball decision.
Although I agree with the modest assessments on what to pay Judge, I don’t agree with the fact he’s going to be DH-only anytime soon. I simply don’t see how or why anyone comes to that conclusion so readily because he has a good glove in RF, he’s athletic, & if he remains healthy, this will be two full healthy seasons.
He’s also made notable adjustments to his plate approach, so I believe those are actual improvements with definitive results, not outliers. Judge is an elite hitter. But, I still don’t think he’s worth what he thinks he is. I thought the Yankees offer was a fair offer for his age & injury history.
The soon to be DH comments comes from his health history. Stanton was a plus defender in Miami but couldn’t stay on the field playing outfield everyday. I think when you are that large, the odds of you being able to play the outfield into your 30’s are not super great.
With that said, he is a solid defender, a lot better than people give him credit for. I just don’t see him being able to hold up at age 33/34 and so on.
I agree about Judge not necessarily being a DH in waiting. He’s always had a good glove.
It’s interesting about the adjustments at the plate. It’s happened before with other players. I thought there might be some possible regression, since his BAbip this season is .344. But then I looked at his career BAbip and it’s .346. So I’d guess, what he’s doing at the plate, is sustainable.
@Clipper, yes. He’s rated as one of the top defensive RFers in the game every year. He’s an excellent athlete, so really it’s a question of how his body will age and health. There are unknowns, beyond the obvious. We all age and physically get worse!
There are few comparisons for someone of Judge’s size and skill set, although some of the ones that are out there would indicated Judge will still be playing in his late 30s. Dave Winfield played into his 40s. Dave Parker played until 40, and Parker did a lot of damage to his body that did not help his latter years. I wouldn’t be surprised if he was still playing well through his mid- to late-30s, more because of his athleticism. And, oh yeah, if they ever bring in robo umps, Judge will be one of the main beneficiaries.
@RobM That was true in 2018-2019, at ages 26 and 27—as it is for many players where physical decline has begun but is supported by increasing smarts—but no longer today. Judge is average now, in the field, in no way elite, Not at 30.
He is tied for the worst RF in baseball in DRS so far this season and is average in OAA. It is a small sample size, but fielding metrics decline faster than hitting metrics and his speed has already shown decline over the past 2 seasons. Judge has been remarkably steady in his production the last 4 seasons and that points to him also being around that level of production at years end. The deadened ball may actually lower his production for 2022 by the time all is said and done. That is why I can say with a good deal of certainty that his hitting will be about league average, which is still good, within the next 5-6 years at the rate of decline that star players experience starting with their age 31 season, which is 2023 for Judge. He will be a DH far longer than he will be a RF in his next contract. All of that screams DON’T sign me to a 7 year deal for shortstop money!! He should have taken the Yankees offer.
“It is a small sample size” — yeah, it is.
Since 2019, there are two right fielders with more Outs Above Average than Judge.
@Find Ployd Thing is, it’s fielding, and he’s 30. In a corner. For 2020-22 he’s at zero wrt OAA and has been, really, for each of the most recent three seasons. 2019 doesn’t matter for a fielder in his post-prime years. He’s an average runner, now. Average speed, average jumps. He’ll probably get worse overall this year. In 2023 he’ll get worse than that. In 2024 a team will have to be hurting at least a little on defense to want to use him in the OF.
If you want to spend 7/210m on a DH, have at it, but it’s not a good idea.
Swanson’s numbers are slowly creeping up, but ATL really needs to make a splash at shortstop. Spoiler alert: sadly, they probably won’t.
Why? They are better off giving Duvall and Ozuna long-term extensions.
What they need more than a splash is to put more runs on the board or take more runs off. Buying 30 yo SS’s for big money on long deals is usually a terrible idea.
Personally I’d have Turner rated above Correa and Nimmo wouldn’t be in the top ten. I sincerely doubt DeGrom signs elsewhere – I believe the Mets will lock him up either way. He’s been the next best thing to Seaver from a club history perspective. Doc had the chance, but literally blew it.
You’re slower than molasses if you believe Nimmo shouldn’t be in top 10. Bad take. Learn baseball better
Ok duck boy. Try watching him. There’s better options.
Among free agents this offseason? Name one.
After on base percentage he is below average to average. A very one stat player and has only played 100 games once. I have seen him play enough to say he will not make any team better.
Nimmo has a career 135 wRC+, 35% better than league average. This season his wRC+ is 144. If the Mets don’t want him, I hope my team takes him off their hands.
Whether or not folks appreciate Nimmo is like a litmus test for if they understand baseball it seems. And the idea of a “one stat” player is just a hilarious misunderstanding of how these stats work.
@tad2b13 But if only OBP didn’t count!
/sarc
The Braves have a ton of money coming off the books. 16 with Jansen, 10 with Dansby,9.7 mil with Duvall, a 13 mil option with Will Smith and a 20 mil Option on Charlie Morton, and they probably will not offer Arb to Luke Jackson who is getting 3.4 mil. Thats near 75 Mil plus the Braves are near top in attendence they are going to be in on some of these FA.
Nimmo is criminally underrated
Not once he hits free agency. Big contract coming.
Facts. I’m gonna say 6 years at 135.
He’s worth that with all the injury shortened seasons.
Mets should offer that as an extension
I believe he remains a Met. He’s one of their own, he’s good, and Cohen will want to keep him.
If Mets pursue judge they will let him walk.
Judge wants his 3 bills.
Great list. Could be another shortstop-rich offseason.
Judge situation seems similar to Freeman’s situation last season with the Braves. Both sides seemingly want to remain married, but they ended up with a bitter divorce. The difference is the Braves wouldn’t budge and immediately implemented plan B. Or was it always plan A?
In Judge’s case, the Yankees have the money and won’t have a hard number that’s a line in the sand as it appeared the Braves did with Freeman. The question then is Judge’s intent. Maybe he’d like to go home and play in California. The problem is a landing spot that will pay him the money. The Dodgers can but won’t go up into that stratosphere with Betts already signed and other commitments. The Angels already have a huge amount of money committed to Trout and Rendon, and they have to figure out a huge deal for Ohtani. That leaves the Giants, and I don’t see the Giants outbidding the Yankees. The Padres, meanwhile, are trying to reduce payroll for luxury tax purposes. So, for Judge, I don’t see an easy path home, unless he’s willing to take a discount, and there’s certainly no evidence that’s what he wants.
That leaves the other team in NY, and the field. Never bet against the field, because all it takes is one owner in that field who wants to make a big splash and spend big money. We saw that with the Rangers this off season. We even saw that with another former Yankee, Cano, when the Mariners decided to go in big. As for Cohen, certainly he personally could afford it, but this is not a Scherzer situation where he could blow the market away on a short-term deal. The Mets seem to have a wise plan they’re putting in motion of spending to be competitive immediately, but building a long-term plan to success that requires a strong minor league system. Their contracts this off season, including Scherzer, were short term. Signing Judge away from the Yankees will require a significant premium above what the Yankees will pay and over a long period, and that will begin to create luxury tax issues that impact amateur and international drafting, which are key to the Mets plans. Judge understands the legacy of being a Yankee. He doesn’t want to turn into Cano, who regretted leaving, so it will take a lot of money to buy out that regret and Judge’s wishes. Not sure the short-term satisfaction will outweigh the long-term issue for the Mets. Judge’s contract would also bleed over into the next CBA, where the Mets penalty might become quite severe if Cohen ramps up above all the thresholds. Cohen is a smart businessman. He’ll stick to his plan. Short-term contracts, long-term development.
That leaves the Yankees or the rest of the field. I’ll stick with the Yankees, as will Judge, which is almost assuredly his preference. The question though is what will it cost?!
Pittsburgh. You heard it here first.
Excellent post !!
@RobM excellent comment, and I think the Mets will be utter fools to sign Judge in contradistinction to the high, but sensibly short-term spending, of this past offseason.
They won’t actually be a sustainably good team for significantly under $300m for another 3 to 5 years, so sinking $32m+ a year into Judge just to watch him in steep decline as you’re about to arrive is a real mistake.
With injuries to their old #1 and #2, with injuries or ineffectiveness doubtless coming to Carrasco and Walker, and to their fragile, elderly OF, they’ll be very lucky to play .475 ball for the next two month. And that’s with a payroll already around $286m.
@RobM The Braves’ Freeman free agency only appeared to be a hard line, as you indicated. We didn’t find out about what offers were made and last offer contracts were tendered, until Olson was on board following the trade. I imagine the Braves lined up the trade with Oakland for the best comparable alternative and it was accepted with a window it might close and someone else would get or keep Olson.
Freeman’s agents were then likely told last offer by the Braves. This was most likely due to the overall timing including the paused free agency window due to the CBA negotiation. The Braves took the assured route and got Olson knowing they could be left looking at other free agent 1B, other than both Freddie and Matt. Negotiations end and so do windows of availability. I doubt the Braves went into the off season planning not to bring Freddie back as the best plan or why make more offers following the CBA signing. I also know there were negotiations on what players Oakland wanted for Olson.
All that said, the Yankees and many other teams have bigger annual payrolls, although none are owned by a publicly traded corporation. These power house spending teams usually eclipse Braves’ spending… Following Ted Turner’s ownership of the team, anyway. There was a time when Ted overspent and made waves with contract offers and his personal involvement in the Braves, including his short tenure as Braves’ on-field manager. It was entertaining, but didn’t always result in better on-field performance.
It seems half of the top 10 are contingent on players opting out of their current deals.
Weak free agent class next winter
What about Brandon Belt? When healthy, he’s one of the top 1B in baseball…
Or maybe he was mentioned and I overlooked it?
Good point. I can understand him not in the top 10, but I’d think an honorable mention would be in order.
I think Houston is in a good spot to get Judge. Get Judge, keep Verlander, and give him the team to get to 300 + wins. Verlander could win both Cy Young, and M.V.P again this year. The guys that keep opting out, may form a future pool of players teams who think their close can go after, for a year or two.
Verlander is awesome but, even if he wins 20 this year, he’d need to average about 15 wins per year for 3 more years to get to 300. It’s still quite a long shot, no matter who his teammates are.
The Tiger’s did good getting Baez over Correa. It’s like they’ve gotten Carlos Guillen back again. It’s been a long decade since Carlos played, and now we’ve finally replaced him. Detroit’s gotten off to a rocky start, but they’ve got some pitching depth.
Going after a hitter is easier than searching for pitching. They can go for J.D.M, or Judge if they decide they need a bat. Once Greene comes up they’ll know better what they need next year.
I’m just trying to figure out, why nolan Syndergaard isn’t on this list? Now don’t get me wrong, I hope and want him to sign a long term extension with the Angels. But as of right now, he will be a FA after this season.
You can argue Thor belongs in the HM group alongside Eflin and Eovaldi, but none of us felt compelled to put him in the top ten while he’s only striking out 17% of opponents.
Who’s Nolan Syndergaard? Chris Paddock and Jason deGrom’s roommate?
Correa, lol. We’re all still living in fantasy land, back in 2015? Eventually we’ll all wake up and realize he’s one of the most overrated, overhyped, overpaid scrubs that pro sports has ever seen. Doesn’t stay on the field, phantom injury after phantom injury. When he manages to stay on the field, has shown middling power despite hitting in a bandbox of a stadium in Houston. NO SPEED WHATSOEVER. None. Stole a few bags as a rookie, then Houston locked him down obviously trying to keep he (as well as Altuve and Springer), healthy. He’s carried that onto MN however, and is demonstrating that he’s truly a station to station “athlete” despite his relative “young” baseball age. Solid defender? Sure, I’ll grant him that. Now, how does this amount to someone that feels like they can demand/command 20-30 million per year and a massive contract? Who in the hell is going to pay that? If they do, they may as well just throw the cash in an incinerator right now and save themselves the time.
Teams will have some buyers remorse over the SS contracts handed out over the last couple years. This class was hyped to be legendary if they all reached their potential and stayed healthy. Those are big if’s. Lindor contract was already an albatross from the start line, Correa is looking he isn’t going to be opting out, Baez was regressing before he even became a free agent etc. etc..
Gave Cashman a lot of crap the last couple years but not going after any of these SS’s was one move I agreed with.
To be honest, this isn’t a great FA class. deGrom might have been the top guy, however, the past few years, he’s struggled to stay on the field. If Nimmo can prove he can stay on the field for a full season, he might be one of the underrated options out there.
Yankees will lose Judge if they don’t break their rule and go over 7 years.
Another title for this list could be “Top 10 most overpaid players of 2023”
I’m really disappointed Musgrove is on this list. Sure he deserves to be. And yes he needs to be paid. But the more he’s touted, the more difficult it will be for the Pads to keep him. And nothing is worse than a hometown guy having to leave hometown to play for the Dodgers or Yankees.
Him being on an internet list isn’t going to make it harder for the Padres to keep him. Although I don’t buy the “He’s going to stay because he’s from there and pitched their first no-hitter” narrative like most Padres fans seem to.
He’ll stay if the Padres offer him the best deal because he’s said he very much wants to stay. Can’t get much simpler than that. But his value keeps going up because he’s pitching so well yes. That used to be a well-kept secret in most media (Forbes and ESPN recently highlighted him) and nationally among fans, looks like it’s not anymore.
He’s not taking a relevant discount to stay tho. And just because national media ignores him doesn’t mean GM’s don’t realize how good he’s been.
I didn’t say he’d take a discount so I’ll assume you are speaking to someone else. But it’s also possible he would take a discount. You don’t know, I sure don’t either.
Didn’t we get past the point of believing what players say about ‘wanting to x’ by, say, 1997?
Just weird to say “he’ll stay if the Padres offer him the best deal.” That’s pretty self explanatory for almost every player.
@JackStrawb People will believe what they want and if something the player or agent said can be construed in such a way that confirms what they want to believe they’ll believe it even harder. You are probably guilty of the same.
Thanks for reading my mind, son. That’s what the internet’s for, really.
Judge I would like to see in a Giants uniform. Giants need some danger in the middle of the lineup.
@Balk They’re third in slugging and OBP in 2022 after finishing 1st and third in those categories in 2021. What they really need is a durable, above average starting pitcher.
Please write a story about the Bottom 10 free agents so I will have a preview of who the Pittsburgh Pirates will be looking to sign next year.
Now this is the best comment in the stream.
Not on the Honorable Mention list, but maybe could be if he turns in a good year moving froward: Clevinger?
This will be an interesting offseason for the Mets. They’re losing deGrom, Bassitt, Walker, and they probably won’t want Carrasco back for $11m. That leaves a rotation of…
= Scherzer, age 38, having missed at least 1/4 of the 2021 season
= Megill
…and some iffy back end starters in Peterson (4.48 career FIP) and Trevor Williams (4.44).
Payroll is already set to go way over $200m in 2023 and they’re in dire need of a #1 and #3 starting pitcher. They also need an entire bullpen. Fortunately the lineup is solid, but they need a real catcher, they need a starting-caliber OFer capable of 140 starts in a season, and they’ll probably need to replace at least one of Dom and JDD,
This is the problem, though, when you get on the Free Agent treadmill. It’s hard to get off unless you’re willing to step back, take the hit and put up 72 win seasons until your minor leaguers develop into MLB-caliber players.
The Mets are unlikely to exercise that kind of patience, and they’ll be spending close to $300 million to keep an old team on the periphery of the postseason race for the next several years. They’ll also apparently be led by Billy Eppler.
It won’t be pretty.
The article claims that if deGrom comes back and ‘dominates down the stretch’ he’ll be in line for a deal similar to what Scherzer got.
So the best pitcher on the planet, who cannot stay healthy, has a mysterious aggregate of injuries keeping him off the mound for a year but is going to make something like 3/$130m for his age 35-37 seasons?
Not without clauses, he’s not. No one’s going to go near that amount unless the deal includes salaries that vest if Jake throws 150 innings each year–clauses like that. It’ll be a very complicated contract, there will be codicils and stipulations for each season, and the guaranteed money won’t come close to $130m. Not if he misses a year-plus between 2021-22.