In the days leading up to the start of the regular season, the Red Sox had extension discussions with star infielders Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers. The team didn’t reach a long-term deal with either player, and it’s not believed they want to continue negotiations during the season.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post now sheds more light on the respective talks, characterizing the sides as being $100MM or more apart in both instances. Heyman reports that Boston offered Bogaerts around $90MM over four seasons. Boston’s offer to Devers isn’t clear, but Heyman suggests there was a rather notable gap on the length of the commitment, with the young star seeking a much longer guarantee than the team put on the table.
Bogaerts’ and Devers’ situations aren’t analogous, so it’s worth considering them separately. The excellent shortstop is the more immediate concern, as Boagerts can reach free agency at the end of this season. The right-handed hitter is signed for $20MM annually between 2023-25, but he can opt out of the final three years on his deal at the end of this season. According to Heyman, the Red Sox offered to tack on around $30MM in 2026 while keeping his salaries for the next three years the same.
It’s no surprise that wasn’t an appealing proposition for the three-time All-Star. He’s just six months away from having a chance to test the open market in advance of his age-30 season. Bogaerts wouldn’t receive the kind of decade-long commitment the younger Corey Seager did, but he could be in position for a deal of seven or even eight years if he performs as expected in 2022.
This offseason, the Rockies signed Kris Bryant to a seven-year deal worth $182MM heading into his age-30 campaign. The Rangers signed Marcus Semien for seven years and $175MM for his age-31 through age-37 seasons. Trevor Story and Javier Báez — each of whom was headed into their age-29 seasons — inked six-year pacts worth $140MM with opt-out opportunities.
It’s fair for Bogaerts and his representatives at the Boras Corporation to argue for a deal that tops all those contracts. Going back to the start of 2019, the four-time Silver Slugger Award winner owns a .302/.375/.523 slash line that translates to a 135 wRC+ (indicating offensive production 35 percentage points above the league average). That’s much better than the respective marks for each of Bryant (123), Semien (128), Story (113) and Báez (104). Bogaerts also has the edge if one looks back two seasons, while Semien was similarly productive last year.
A deal matching Semien’s $25MM average annual value that takes Bogaerts through his age-37 campaign would pay him $200MM over eight seasons. He’ll need a typically strong platform year to land that kind of money on the open market, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility. Bogaerts isn’t the caliber of defender that Semien, Story or Báez are, but he has a longer track record of offensive excellence than any of those players.
Of course, it’s possible that Bogaerts gets injured or underperforms in 2022. In that instance, the remaining $60MM on his deal affords him plenty of security, since he could elect not to opt out. (The deal also contains a $20MM vesting option for 2026). Forgoing an opportunity at $175MM — $200+MM to raise the floor of his existing contract from $60MM to $90MM isn’t a particularly appealing concept. Heyman writes that Bogaerts’ camp decided not to make a counteroffer, with a friend of Bogaerts calling the team’s proposal “a slap in the face.”
Nothing prevents the Sox from upping their offer after the season if Bogaerts tests the open market, and they’d presumably have to do so significantly to keep him in the fold. Whether they’ll have interest remains to be seen, but Boston signed Story to the aforementioned $140MM deal this past offseason. Story was a career-long shortstop with the Rockies, and while he moved to second base in deference to Bogaerts, the Sox could kick him back to his old position next year. Boston has one of the game’s top second base prospects, Nick Yorke, at High-A. Former top prospect Jeter Downs is coming off a rough season in Triple-A but was nevertheless added to the 40-man roster last November.
That could be a precursor to Bogaerts’ eventual departure, but chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom tells Heyman the Story signing “doesn’t change our desire to keep” Bogaerts and Devers. He added “we’re hopeful we can keep both guys,” but declined to discuss the specifics of the team’s offers.
Unlike Bogaerts, the team can unilaterally keep Devers around in 2023. The slugging third baseman is arbitration-eligible once more next winter, when he’ll be due a raise on this year’s $11.2MM salary. With notable earnings already in the bank, Devers shouldn’t have much financial pressure to accept a team-friendly deal. He’s coming off his first All-Star campaign and Silver Slugger after hitting .279/.352/.538 with 38 home runs.
Devers, who debuted in the big leagues as a 20-year-old, is on track to reach free agency in advance of his age-27 campaign. He’ll face some questions about his ability to stick at the hot corner over the long haul given his subpar defensive metrics, but there’s little doubt about his offensive capability. Devers ranks 28th in wRC+ among 159 hitters with 1000+ plate appearances over the past three seasons, with his .290/.350/.537 line translating to a 129 mark.
The Red Sox, it should be noted, have plenty of long-term payroll flexibility. Until last month’s Story pickup, Bloom and his staff had shied away from making free agent splashes since he was hired in October 2019. Boston opened this season with a payroll in the $220MM range, but they’d have just $72MM in 2023 guaranteed commitments (before accounting for arbitration) if Bogaerts opts out. That number would drop to about $57MM in 2024, with Story and Chris Sale the only significant expenditures that year. (Sale himself can opt out after this season, but he looks less likely to do so after his last three years have been dampened by injuries). That sets up some interesting decisions for the front office around which players they’d like to build over the long haul.
That “desire to keep Bogaerts and Devers” will be proven or disproven based on how much each is offered by the Sox.
I don’t think either will be offered market value based on their current defensive positions. If just one is offered an overpay, I hope it’s Devers.
Bold call.
@FPG you got me with adding the second part.
And agreed.
Yeah these are the reasons why I’d choose Devers:
1) He’s 4 years younger
2) He’s capable of improving defensively (think Beltre)
3) His defensive shortcomings aren’t as impactful at 3B
4) He’s a better hitter
5) Sox don’t really have an adequate replacement at 3B in the near future, but they have Story and (hopefully) Mayer for SS
I love Xander, I really do, but he’s not the one I’d keep of the two.
FPG – Wow hard to read these comments
So you think Devers, an overweight DH who hurts the team each time he touches a glove, is likely to outlast a SS in great shape but 4 years older? That makes no sense.. Devers is the next coming of Panda. Bogaerts is likely to be a strong performer late into his 30s like Mookie.
Beltre is a joke for a comparison. That’s a proven bad comp and you know it so why bring it up? It’s absurd!! Devers is NOTHING like Beltre defensively. Idiots used that argument years ago but as Devers conintues his horrendous play that argument got abandoned in 2020!!!
Face it, Devers is NEVER going to improve!!! My goodness you’re losing your mind!!! WOW. How many years of being the worst fielder in baseball does it take to convince you? You try so hard to rationalize the existence of Devers as a fielder. He’s not a good HS level defender!!! His fielding percentage in the minors and the majors mimic each other. 935 IS NOT A GOOD FIELDER and never will be. In 2014, Devers started collecting paychecks to be an atrocious 3B and it hasn’t stopped after 8 seasons of well below league average play. Like the old TV show, EIGHT IS ENOUGH!!!
More crazy comments with regard to the impact of his ineptitude!!
3B fields the 3rd most total chances on the field if you don’t count balls thrown to 1Bs. SS are first and with Bogaerts fielding percentage over league average for his career and recent years and Devers’ fielding percentage more than 20 points below league average for 5 years (his entire career) how can you possibly suggest his shortcomings aren’t as impactful? That’s crazy. His impact is huge and very obvious to any normal baseball fan, probably even to football fans watching baseball!!!.
Check the numbers. 1/4 of all Boston errors since Devers arrived are attributed to him!!! Yes, 9 positions can make errors but 1 makes 1/4 of the errors. Do you want to know the stats on errors since Devers and Bogaerts started playing in Boston. The 9 year (Bogey) versus 5 years (Devers) shows more errors by Devers in roughly half the time and roughly 1/3 the total chances.
HANDS DOWN BOGAERTS IS THE BETTER PLAYER!!!
When Devers’ has a good hitting year the two are comparable and since that is every other year Bogaerts is the better hitter. Let’s compare:
2018 Bogaerts OPB= 135 Devers OPS+ 94!!!! Bogey 41 points higher
2019 Bogaerts OPS+ 139 Devers OPS+ 132
2020 Bogaerts OPS+ 128 Devers OPS+ 107 Bogey 21 points higher
2021 Bogaerts OPS+ 126 Devers OPS+ 131
So 2 out of 4 years Bogey is far better and 2 out of 4 they are similar.
I guess that conclusively proves your point!!! hahahaha
Hands down, Bogey’s the more consistent hitter and far, far, far better fielder!!
Story is on the team RIGHT NOW to play 3B. Have you heard of this guy Story? The Red Sox have a perfectly capable replacement at 3B TODAY. Seriously, where is all this bad information coming from? Story is comparable to Bogey in fielding percentage and with Kiki on the team to maximize the defense, Story should be at 3B, Kiki at 2B and Bogey should be the SS until Mayer is ready. So Bloom goes out and gets a guy who can play 3B to fix the defensive problems and forgets to tell Cora that Story can play 3B? Great front office and manager. It’s the blind leading the blind.
As far as pay goes, Bogaerts is signed through 2026 his 33 year old season. He’s making roughly $10MM a year less than his value. So sit down with him and sign him to a 2023 one time bonus of $40MM to eliminate his opt outs. Then, with a $20MM per year AAV cost to other teams his value will be huge when Mayer is ready to play. The Red Sox can turn him for a lot more with an AAV of $20MM instead of $30MM.
Devers isn’t worth pursuing because he’s unrealistic of his talents. He’s a lesser version of JD as a DH in 2018 who got paid a fair market price of $22MM a year. Devers is going to want $30MM and his market value is between $20MM and $25MM depending on his final 2022 numbers. Until he sheds the every other year success story, he’s an inconsistent hitter who hurts you severely in the field if not playing DH. Tell him he can stay at 3B for $5MM a year or he can play DH for $25MM a year. Help him understand how badly he hurts the team with his selfishness and lack of defensive skills..
As an experiment to prove how little value Devers provides, push his bat down to the 5 hole like Cora did to JD and put JD 3 and Story 1 and Bogey 2 with Dalbec 4. See how much Devers numbers fall hitting in the 5 hole. JD is living proof of the impact!!!
It’s the hole that provides value not the player. Until Kiki gets put 9th and Story bats in the top 4 hitters, the offense isn’t going to be reaching it’s potential. It’s all about where you hit and who hits around you. Devers has been given every break by Cora to maximize his numbers and yet he still hasn’t hit consistently over a two year period. That should be reflected in his pay!!
FPG – It’s like you drank some Cool-Aid and lost all your focus on the facts. Devers over Bogey? Unbelievable. One dimensional every other year hitter over a perennial all-star shortstop? It makes no sense.
When in doubt use Baseball Reference. It clearly explains that Devers is one of the worst ever at fielding and Bogey is above league average. Why in the world would you want to distort those known facts? Again, it makes no sense..
@KD
Bogaerts is that you?!?!
Dude!
Stopped reading as it was way too long. Note to KD:. I assume you speak into the mic. Try typing to control your posts. I don’t take much out of the story. Read the full article which was a comparison to how most others believe the Yankees’ Judge offer was realistic. Bogie set himself up taking the guarantee with the opt out. I hope he stays as his bat does seem to play as he ages. Devers though is no third baseman and no one is paying him years and $$ as a third baseman. By his lack of playing elsewhere in spring training, I’m assuming he’s worse at other positions. That said, he’s amongst the top five lefty hitters in the game. He should get in my eyes a long deal but at shorter or deferred money. $25m x 10 to 11 years?
KD – Sounds like you have confused Devers with 2020 Vlad Jr!
He’s not Panda, not even close. Don’t let the baggy oversized uniform fool you, Manny wore similar and was definitely not fat either.
Look up Beltre’s early career defense, it wasn’t good. But guess what? He worked on it, and he improved. I’m not saying it definitely will happen with Devers, but it certainly could happen.
Personally I’d like to see Devers moved to 1B, but who plays 3B then? Dalbec hasn’t proven himself yet, but he could be an option. I’d love to see Xander try out at 3B, but they haven’t been working him out at any new position … all the more reason why I think his pending departure is a given.
KD really dude?? You’re way off on Devers calling him Panda. His bat is elite so I stopped reading your novel after paragraph one as I assumed the rest would be complete nonsense as well. I’m not sure why some fans feel the need to act like defense is so important. Devers isn’t even close to the liability you make him out to be. I’m not sure why you hate him so much but you clearly do. The Red Sox should try to keep both because Story isn’t half the hitter that either one of them are.
Dewey, I would think Devers would make a solid 1B’man. He easily has the bat. I’m guessing they don’t want to play him there because that eliminates Dalbec, and then Casas. They could move Dalbec into the DH spot after JDM leaves, but Casas will need a position.
KD17: Too long, too many caps, and like most people didnt read past first paragraph. Nice job wasting YOUR time.
Wanna show us on the doll where Devers hurt you?
Truly can’t believe you took time to write this lol
Don’t forget Yorke is in the pipeline. The Sox may have 3 solutions for SS and 2B where there is nothing in the pipe for 3B.
This confuses me just a little. I’ll agree that you can’t guarantee defensive improvements, but it’s possible. Devers is just starting his 25-year-old campaign. If you look at the stats, 2018 was his first real big-league season, where he had to learn to make adjustments. 2020 is a wash for most players, too small of a sample size and most players underperformed or over performed. Dever’s defense doesn’t hurt as bad as you make it. He’s had two 30+ homer years and hits doubles. I’ll say it again, he’s entering this year at 25 and even though he’s been in the league for “6” years, he’s really only had 3 normal length seasons. 2 of those were great.
So cool that Bogaerts mom is in the site defending her son. Hi Mrs. Bogaerts and welcome.
Everything I read has Devers listed at 6’0 240 pounds… that is A LOT of weight carrying around on a 6 foot frame and obviously with Devers, he isn’t carrying around muscle.
For a guy who broke into the league at 210, packing on 30 pounds of bad weight is a huge concern moving forward.
Also, I’m not sure where you are coming off with Beltre being a bad defender early in his career, assuming you mean that Beltre had a lot of errors but Beltre was always a great glove with great range and errors are a terrible way to judge defense. Look at Baez, that dude makes more throwing errors than anyone I’ve seen and yet is still an amazing defender. Look at Beltre’s defensive WAR, even with all his errors he was positive in dWAR in all but one of his early years. He got better because he learned to stop making so many errant throws vs. Devers who simply cannot make plays and doesn’t have the range (and at 240 he isn’t going to improve his range).
And what sense does it make to sign Devers to a long term deal and move him to first when you have Casas who is in AAA now and is an elite prospect? Do you realize how good you have to be for a first baseman to be ranked that high on MLB pipeline?
I was actually a little surprised that the Red Sox with with Story instead of Correa. If I was Boston, Correa would have been my primary focus and then I’d look to move Bogaerts via trade (or shifted him to second). I think the Red Sox could have gotten a really solid prospect haul for Bogaerts, improved their team and gotten a bit younger all in one swoop. That is win/win/win.
And to answer the next question, YES, Correa would have been worth the 10 million or so per season price difference over Story and the 5 million or so over Bogaerts.
@KD You forgot the relevant facts here.
This is not quite factual and doesn’t cut it as it isn’t age adjusted
“2018 Bogaerts OPB= 135 Devers OPS+ 94!!!! Bogey 41 points higher
2019 Bogaerts OPS+ 139 Devers OPS+ 132
2020 Bogaerts OPS+ 128 Devers OPS+ 107 Bogey 21 points higher
2021 Bogaerts OPS+ 126 Devers OPS+ 131”
You should be basing it on this age adjusted comparison instead as they start with first full year for each:
age 21 year Bogaerts OPS+ 84 Devers OPS+ 94!!!! Devers 10 points higher
age 22 Bogaerts OPS+ 107 Devers OPS+ 132 Devers wow
age 23 Bogaerts OPS+ 111 Devers OPS+ 107 Bogey 4 points higher
age 24 Bogaerts OPS+ 95 Devers OPS+ 131 Devers wow
Devers is very Young (25) and Bogey is 29
Bogey’s prime years are 25-31 and he has been exceptional with his OPS+
Devers is just hitting those prime years and has preformed better leading to them with the bat.
Both are at a position they aren’t preforming at and will need a better mapped out strategy to continue as they age.
Devers appears to be a better long term gamble.
To me 11M in 22 15 in 23 then 7 or maybe 8 yrs at 27 extension would be tops for him (Freddie Freeman rate) and should payoff with the declining years tapering off when he reaches 31 or 32 balancing out the contract.
I’m guessing it’s because they don’t want to expose he can’t play it as otherwise he could have been tried there before Dalbec or others.
KD, You prove over and over that you don’t get it. You’re ridiculous.
Oh great, I’m better than he is face off. Good luck Boston
While he is a marginally better hitter than Devers (132 OPS+ to 128 OPS from 2019-2022), Bogaerts is not an above league average defensive player. baseball-reference.com/players/b/bogaexa01.shtml?u…
The Red Sox have a perfectly capable replacement at shortstop on the team right now who is an above average defensive player at SS. Story.
If he opts out, the Red Sox should place a QO on him and let Bogaerts walk. Players start declining after their age 30 season and that is next year for him.
If he does not opt out, then his contract takes him though his age 32 season with a vesting option for his age 33 season. As long as he gets a certain amount of at bats, its vests. Not a team or player choice. Players decline precipitously starting at age 33.
Dalbec, blaze, binelas
@KD17
Even those of us that don’t suffer from ADHD would need to take meds to read your piece.
Wow, Red Sox fans must be fun at parties.
Its those emotional scars that will never heal tho.
KD is not a Red Sox fan. He is a troll. Lol, a very old troll….
@feverpitchguy
Why would you make a market value offer “based on their current defensive position” when any team trying to win would not be playing them at those positions? Even in Boston, the fans know Devers should be at 1B or DH. Bogaerts should be at 2B or 3B. Semien got SS money from Texas because other team were interested in him playing SS. There is not one team, not even Boston, who would be interested in signing Bogaerts to play SS going forward. I wouldn’t consider Semien’s contract a comparable. Even Cano was considered an above average fielder when he signed his contract. You sign both these guys for their bat, unless…they insist on playing their current position.
stymee – I wouldn’t, but there’s no doubt in my mind both are wanting and expecting to get paid market value for their current positions. And whenever stars like them hit the open market, there’s always teams willing to overpay and keep players at positions despite a history of below average glovework. Remember the Yanks keeping Jeter at SS, even though ARod was the better glove?
And once Xander/Devers land the big contract they are seeking, they will then likely agree to try a position change. Just like Story did, and many others.
As great as Bogie is, be doesn’t have the market value of Jeter. That was also twenty years ago. Much more money involved today. Does George pay another $100m on the Jeter deal if this were today? it’s harder to also insure against injuries today. My gut tells me George would let Jeter today test the market if he were demanding $30m for ten. They would then have compromised for $250m in today’s $$$. Bogie seems like the same situation in that after checking out the market, he comes back and agrees to play third. I love JDM but I think he’s done in Boston. Devers is the DH in 23 and Yorke mans second.
@feverpitch
Then they can join Correa and Conforto in the disappointed club. Teams are becoming smarter. Just because they want it, doesn’t mean they will get it.
stymee – All it takes is one out of thirty teams to have an unhealthy obsession with a player.
There’s been lots of stupid overpays the past few years … Scherzer/Lindor (different owners), Tatis, Cole, Strasburg to name a few.
I’m being kind by not including Mookie.
Mookie will not be worth the $360,000,000 the Dodgers are paying him.
Thank you LA for taking:
Betts $27,000,000 for 2020
Price $48,000,000 (2020-2022)
The Red Sox received 6 years of Verdugo, payroll flexibility, and the ability to rebuild enough in one year to make the ALCS in 2021.
Devers is a much better bet than Semien. Semien had a Devers-esque 2021. That got him $175MM after he had 7 out of 8 seasons before that with a below league average OPS+. Sub 100. 7 out of 8 seasons. And you’re comparing that to Devers? Even in 2021, Semien’s career year, Raffy was as good or better. Raffy gets $220-250MM in guarantees when he opts out. He’s only 25 and an established star. Whether Chaim signs up for that amount is another question and it’s one reason I hated the allocation of resources in the Story contract. If the Sox lose Devers it will hurt them a lot, which is why I think he stays.
Since 2017 through 2021, Semien has a 21.0 fWAR and Devers has a 12.9 fWAR.
Since 2019 through 2021, Semien has a 15.4 fWAR and Devers has an 11.1 fWAR.
Last year, Semien had a 6.6 fWAr and Devers had 4.7 fWAR.
From 2019 to 2021, Semien was the best SS or infielder of any kind, in baseball. BR and Fangraphs agree on that. Last season Semien put up a 7.3 bWAR/6.6 fWAR and Devers a 3.5 bWAR/4.7 fWAR. Semien was head and shoulders better than Devers. Its not close
Fink – That’s kinda like beating a dead horse, ain’t it? We all know Devers is defensively challenged, which of course drags down his WAR, but if the money was equal there isn’t a soul that would take Semien over Devers right now.
It says a lot that you’re using a 20yo rookie’s half season in a head-to-head comparison with a veteran’s prime
“if the money was equal there isn’t a soul that would take Semien over Devers right now.”
You say that as if you’re privy to the thinking inside major league front offices. Are you? Do you know for a fact that all analytics departments in baseball devalue defense as much as you do?
Certainly the age difference would be in Devers’ favor; but if their analysts concluded that his defense was problematic and the contracts were short enough, a team still might prefer Semien over Devers.
Some of these people are so hung up on defense for some odd reason. They have to keep Devers his bat is too good and getting better. The trouble with Bogaerts is the same the Yankees are having with Judge, he’s too old to give more than four to six years to. Obviously he wants the big huge long term deal but any smart team would steer clear of doing so just as I suspect we’ll see the Yankees do next off season with Judge. The good thing for guys like them is that teams like the Mets are out there and will always be willing to be stupid.
BTW, from 2019-2021, Devers’ wRC+ was 129 and Semien’s was 128.
Not a big gap there, Fever Pitch Guy.
Semien’s rating in Offensive Runs Above Average (batting runs and base running runs combined) was 68.4, while Devers’ was 62.5.
Neither stat has anything to do with defense.
Teams are “hung up” on defense because it matters. As Casey Stengel sagely observed: “I don’t like them fellas who drive in two runs and let in three.”
Fink – I say that as a poster on a public messageboard in which people express their opinions. LOL
I’m getting slammed from both sides here, which is fine … I’m used to it!
I do take Semien’s defense into consideration. My point is he got that contract based on just two good offensive years over an 8-year career.
Dude had just a .713 OPS from 2013-2018, think about that. He got way more money than he deserved for just two good seasons.
Meanwhile Devers showed signs of an elite hitter his rookie year at Age 20 and became an elite hitter at Age 22.
When anyone decides which player they want for the next 3-5 years, do they base it on what they’ve done in the past or what they are expected to do in the future? Of course the decision is based on future expectations.
Devers is expected to be a .900-1.000 OPS hitter for the next several years, and continue to put up clutch numbers that are off the charts.
Semien? Most wouldn’t be surprised if his numbers come crashing back down, as his current 2-for-22 shows. And his defense isn’t exceptional enough to make up for the disparity in offensive production between him and Devers.
Left: Are you citing yet MORE disinformation today? Do we need to check it?
If a team needs a SS or 2b, why would they want Devers? They’re not comparable players.
If you need a 3b and have a long term need for a 1b, then Devers is the better choice. If you need a 2b/SS, it’s Semien and it’s a no-brainer.
The Phillies exist, hello. 🙂
Fans care only about the hitting, GMs care about overall value for production… I said trade Devers for Arenado last year.
Aw, don’t take it personally, FPG — you’re loved.
Really, my first comment came in reply to this statement by Best Screenname Ever: “Devers is a much better bet than Semien.”
Truth be told, I misread it!
I thought he said flatly: “Devers is much better than Semien.”
My reply wasn’t about Rafael’s value going forward. If I had read more attentively and realized he was talking about future value, I wouldn’t have bothered to respond.
From the standpoint of pure hitting, there’s little doubt in my mind that Devers is better, and the Statcast numbers support that conclusion.
The proviso for any team would be whether they had a place for Devers to play. For instance, with Olson at first and Riley at third, would Atlanta offer a long-term contract to Devers if they thought he’d be limited to DHing? Maybe not. But I think most teams would be as creative as they could be to try to get Devers’ bat into the lineup somehow. The universal DH has to help him a lot.
Texas might disagree. It also depends on where you need to play them, so no, you can’t just ignore defense.
Cohen overpaid in years and dollars with FL to make a statement. He’ll pay more than others short term but is too smart to sign a blank contract.
I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see the Phillies put Schwarber behind the plate if JT misses any time.
In general, there is much to be said for not bothering to respond. As a rule, if I say something once and someone disagrees, that’s fine. I don’t have to write that I disagree and say why because I’ve already said what I think.
FP, your admission that you misread my post is a rare bit of statesmanship, if I may misuse that word, on this board. Many more should follow you instead of those who feel a compulsive need to argue.
Fink – Just saw this, thanks for the kind words. No I don’t take it personally, I come from a family where passionate animated discussions are an everyday thing. LOL
MLB is hurting because corporate entities like MSN Sports run articles by people like Evan Bleier.
I call on ALL BASEBALL FANS AND REAL SPORTS WRITERS TO CALL OUT THESE TOTAL HACKS WHO HAVE AN AGENDA AGAINST BASEBALL.
COMPLAIN TO MSN AND OTHERS WHEN YOU READ STUFF PUTTING DOWN BASEBALL.
Read this guy’s crap.
Make sure people like him are run out of the industry. This person has an agenda.
Evan Bleier – boycott and complain about his horsesh!!!!
You just urged us to “Read this guy’s crap.”
I don’t know who Mr. Bleier is, but he has reason to thank you.
X-Man 150/5 and Devers 210/7 No more! If not traded then for 6-8 prospects
Big future en-Devers for this guy? Apparently he thinks so
I’m not taking Heyman’s word for anything but if THAT’S the best offer for Xander, strap in kids because this team has officially cheaped out! Way to go, we’re becoming Tampa Bay
I don’t think anyone was expecting a strong offer to Xander after the Story signing. You don’t go out and spend that kind of money on a stud defensive SS if you’re expecting to pay up for Xander.
That was an insulting opening offer, to say the least.
Except they needed a second baseman
aggee – Not really. If the Sox had gotten Suzuki, they’d already have a solid 2B in Hernandez. When they first signed him, he was projected to play primarily at 2B.
Oh I agree, it’s an insulting offer, but again it’s Jon Heyman doing the reporting. How often does he actually get anything right?
Mango Tree – I’ll take your word for it, as I really don’t pay much attention to writers/talking heads. And quite often they are intentionally given false information for ulterior motives.
4/90? The Rays would probably offer more than that. Even the Pirates.
2004, 2007, 2013, 2018. I’m not a Red Sox fan but I’m predicting another title by 2025/2026 whether these two are there or not.
Not 1 week ago you had a mix of Braves Pirates in 2025 and 2026. Bong hits wear off? What strain were you on for the name selection? Curious, because that would be a horrendous league.
Well I’d take Heyman’s word on the Bogaerts offer more than what was offered to Devers only because Bogaerts is a Boras client and Heyman has been Boras’ mouthpiece in the baseball media for a while now.
Devers is the present and future. Xander expendable with Jeter Downs coming.
I don’t think Downs will ever make it to the majors with Boston; at least on full time basis
. He looks lost at AAA. Hopefully he can go on a hot streak for a month or so and Boston can trade him this year. The future of Boston’s middle IF lies with Nick Yorke and Marcelo Mayer. Neither will be ready for next season so they might have to get by with an Arroyo type at 2B (Story is moving to SS without question), but the shine has come off of Jeter Downs’ prospect status in a big way. Not only was he awful at the plate last year, he was equally as bad on defense. I believe he had over 30 errors last year. While he did show some improvement over the last 2 months in AAA, he has really become a major disappointment. Perhaps Boston would have better off accepting the original package of Verdugo/Graterol instead.
Dorothy: Jeter Downs only played 12 games in AA in 2019 and missed 2020 due to Covid. I guess they challenged him by putting him in AAA in 2021. So, let’s see how he does in AAA this year.
What the market is worth based on what other players got is coming to an end. Because in free markets a commodity is priced by what a buyer is willing to pay for it.
There are only so many Steven Cohen’s and Texas Rangers out there. Sure, each year there will be some. But when they have 4-6 MLB players a year asking for those outrageous contracts (add Judge to those 2 guys with more coming) – at some point the music stops and there are only so many chairs to sit on..
–
As per Steven Cohen and allowing himself to be boxed in to the Lindor contract which is only beginning to age poorly….
It’s early in the season and not time to draw conclusions. However, from the time Cleveland cut the cord on the Amed Rosario playing CF experiment and put him back at SS in 2021, he outplayed what Lindor did with the Mets. The rap was that Lindor was hurt so he couldn’t hit well, but he was a superior defensive SS….and he does make fancy plays. But the past week I saw the Phillies win a game by a run when Lindor took a cut-off throw from the LF maybe 10 feet on the OF grass behind SS. His throw should have beat the runner trying to score; but it was wide by 3-4 feet so the Catcher had to gather it then dove to the plate missing the runner sliding in. Today I watched a ball hit off the wall in CF to the deepest part of Reds park. Straw played the carom perfectly, and threw the ball to Rosario cutting it off 20-25 feet behind the 2B bag. Rosario immediately spun around and rifled a ball that 2 hopped perfectly to the plate. Hedges caught it with both hands and applied it to the runner sliding in.
Sure, the above is anecdotal and no public statistic shows that. Nor does one show that with Cleveland Rosario is no longer is being treated as an immature player that needs to unlock his talents, but instead has joined Jose Rameriz and Franmil Reyes as team leaders setting the tone for a talented group of young players. This is important because giving older players long-term multi-hundred million dollar contracts as opposed to bringing out the best in young veterans is slowly going away. Quality FO and their owners are wising up.
Sameul – Great theories but April is not the time to suggest Amed Rosario is comparable to Lindor. Most folks do that after the season. It may be true at that point which makes your argument stronger but as of right now it’s nothing more than a nice observation.
Next, consider how many fans came to watch Rosario versus Lindor. Whether it’s right or wrong, if a player puts fans in the seats his value is higher even if his numbers are not that particular year. Remember, Lindor still has a reputation for greatness that Rosario does NOT have. Thus, Lindor’s ticket sales value is far, far higher and helps justify the higher pay.
You suggest things are changing yet I’m not seeing that trend. Please point to the instances that suggest the players with great reputations are going to be paid less. The speed bump called the 1st threshold of the Luxury Tax just went up $20MM and is increasing. Teams like the Red Sox are making over $300MM a year and could exceed the luxury cap for the next decade without drying up profits. Which quality FO is trending towards spending less on the elite players? LAD? Nope NYM? Nope PHI? Nope CWS? Nope and of course NYY? Nope.
Teams with big profits don’t concern themselves much with the money. The Yankees acquired Cole after they were already over the first threshold in their third consecutive year.
Think about supply and demand. There are between 12 and 24 elite players in baseball. There are 30 teams in baseball. The teams that want to win want to hoard the precious gems so they do. Betts, Bellinger, Freeman, T Turner Kershaw Buehler and now Kimbrel all are elite players from a fan value perspective. LAD is hoarding and that doesn’t seem to be slowing. In fact, with the Scherzer and Turner acquisition last year it seems to be growing in popularity in LA.
I agree it’s not what I want to see as a fan but it’s the way it’s always been in baseball. The rich get richer and the poor get lucky or get nothing. Great draft picks or timely acquisitions coupled with UP years by many players on the team allow KC, PIT, MIN and all the other small market teams to have an occasional anomaly happen but for the most part money talks in baseball.
The Yankees won half the World Series from the time they got Ruth until 1962. That wasn’t good for baseball but it happened. Only the ineptitude of the rich front offices keep the playing field a bit more level than in the early years of baseball. LA and NY are doing everything they can to keep the advantage over the other teams but the inequities in payroll don’t always lead to rings.
From where I’m sitting I don’t see the big market teams not getting the elite players now and in the future. Much like the fans that come to see a Lindor when a Rosario might be as good or better, players prefer to play in LA or NY for similar reasons. If nothing else, it’s a shorter road to the HOF playing in LA or NY. Jeter plays in KC and he’s not considered for the HOF on the first ballet. Trevor Hoffman closes for the Yankees and he’s voted in immediately like Rivera.
So as much as I wish your observation was a true reflection of the future, I don’t think it will be. I think the big four or five teams will continue to dominate the elite players with long, lavish contracts.
Too long. Didnt read. Wasted MORE of your time. Tip: no one else is reading this keyboard diarrhea either.
I often wonder about people like you, who presume to speak for everybody.
His post above got six upvotes, so clearly people are reading his comments.
Do you have difficulty scrolling that makes it onerous for you to simply ignore his posts and read the posts that follow? If not, why do you care about the length of his comments?
by my count there are only two and I’d wager all are just him and other accounts he has on this site
Fink – Muting works well too.
Unfortunately these days too many people aren’t content with ignoring, they’d rather make decisions for others by “cancelling”.
I didn’t even notice the grayed-out Mute option. Good to know, FPG. Thanks.
You’re welcome Fink, hopefully I don’t write anything that makes you want to use it on me. LOL
Naw, we cool.
Downvoter. – If you learn to read it’s really not that hard but since you also are ignorant I guess it would be hard to comprehend. Go away troll.
@KD17
Cleveland traded Lindor because the team, with him on it, did not put enough butts in the seats. His time for putting butts in the seats in Queens was short-lived as he got off to a poor start last year and never recovered. In April-May there were people buying his jersey. By July, as he continued to look like a bust, I guarantee the stores were considering markdowns. This year, he’s an after thought. Scherzer and Marte and DeGrom are the draws. Until he starts to perform like the Lindor of old, he’s not selling tickets for the Mets!
Lindor certainly earned some fan admiration with the 3-homer game that also included him calling out the Yanks for their sign-stealing whistling.
stymeedone – It sounds like you agree with me. It takes performance to put fans in the seats and with that performance there is a need for it to continue to keep fans coming back. Many places other than NY are a bit more forgiving of a bad start but I think by year end Lindor will be back in their hearts and he’s lucky to be playing with deGrom and Scherzer because they DO put fans in the stands. I’m a huge Marte fan too so the Mets have found a way to compete with the Yankees by having a more talented team.
More than any city I can think of NY is the toughest to go to and perform well. Many, many excellent players have failed badly as a Yankee and now with the improved team it’s likely the pressure of NY baseball will be impacting new Mets players too..
It’s an easy trap to fall into when a big priced player has a bad year to bad mouth him as if the contract will be bad for the other 9 years but great players are great players so Lindor will be fine. Just like Betts will be fine in LA, Arenado will be fine in St. Louis and Story will be fine in Boston.
It’s the borderline players that get big/long contracts that you have to worry about. I remember questioning what the Cubs were thinking when they signed Heyward or the Yankees Stanton or the Red Sox Panda. To break even on big/long contracts you must pick an ELITE player only. Borderline elite isn’t good enough. Miggy, Pujols and Trout were worth keeping and paying big bucks. Seats were filled and performance in the early years more than off-set the drop offs in the later years. Total contract is all that matters. The tail off at the end needs to be expected because the early years are going to be great.
Red Sox reportedly offered Devers a 6/$200 million extension according to Ken Laird of WEEI and Devers was asking for over $300 million. Several other people on the radio in Boston have pegged his ask at 10/350. He is not a FA until the end of next season, so it’s time for them to trade him while he has max value. Unless he opts out, Bogaerts is not a free agent until after the 2025 season with a vesting option for 2026. The Red Sox already have his replacement in Story, so if he walks, they are covered. 2025 will be Bogaerts age 32 season, so no real reason to extend him after that at all.
outinleftfield – Great comments. The Devers ask is absurd. One dimensional players don’t command $30MM a year especially when they have yet to have two back to back above average years hitting as a DH. Devers won’t be able to market himself to contenders as a 3B. Good teams wouldn’t put up with what Boston allows him to do. He’s heading for a massive reality check in 2023.
Bloom needs to do a simple chart:
DH – Devers 2023 OR trade Devers and use Dalbec and/or Casas long term
C – Insignificant will fill year to year
1B – Dalbec and/or Casas long term with the other being the DH
2B – Kiki until Yorke is ready
SS – Bogey until Mayer is ready OR Story when Bogey opts out
3B – Story through 2022 then a FA in 2023
LF – Verdugo through 2024 then FA or farm player
CF – Duran when he’s ready, fillers until then, FA if Duran can’t cut it
RF – FA big power hitter who can handle Fenway’s right field
When the team gets a DH like Schwarber when they needed a SP or CL it worries me there is no plan. When the team gets Story a SS when they need a 3B I hope it’s to use Story at 3B but instead they leave the Butcher at 3B. That’s worrisome too. The team spent $23MM on an all-star SS when they had one and spent $22MM on three “wish for a miracle’ starting pitchers rather than one really good SP. That’s concerning!! Lots of problems and they aren’t limited to these contracts.
FYI…Story and Bogey are the same age so getting a $23MM SS to replace the $20MM SS because he’s going to opt out makes sense as a gap filler until Mayer is ready. Bogey is not likely to be resigned based on what normal people would conclude from Bloom’s move.
Devers, to me, is far less valuable than Bogey and wants far more money so he needs to be traded as soon as he makes the all-star team for the second year in a row. Let his defense be some other team’s problem not Boston’s. Use Story at 3B for the rest of the season then get a new 3B in 2023 with Bogey’s money and move Story to SS in 2023. Mayer should be up by 2025 so when he arrives there will be a new 3B, Yorke at 2B, Dalbec and Casas at 1B/DH and Story can be dealt to fix the outfield or the pitching.
My god…do you know what the word succinct means?
KD – I admire your passion. Lets just try to take it down a notch though. Sale missed the majority of last season, yet somehow the Sox were able to play their way to the ALCS. This might sound counter to what you feel, but Bloom has a plan and I think he’s executed very well and here’s why:
1- investing in 3 pitchers over 1 pitcher is considered hedging your bets. If you spend the same total amount on 3 capable SPs vs 1 great one then the team is less likely to retain 0 value if the 1 great pitcher gets hurt. Plus the guys they signed have pretty high upside if it works out.
2- Relief is still an issue, particularly finding a lefty, but I don’t mind Schwarber deal. Sometimes you have to take what the market gives you and last year I am fine with the Red Sox not trading a top prospect while they try to continue to build the farm
3- this is Bloom excelled… the farm. There was just about no one left in the farm when DD left. He’s built a solid farm in very short amount of time through savvy drafting (Yorke in the first round to be able to draft Jordan in the 3rd without having a 2nd rounder in the pandemic year), some good luck (Mayer falling to #4 even though he was largely projected top-3), underrated managerial hires to enhance development on the farm (see development of players like Murphy, Groome, Duran), and some pretty good steals in trades (Mazza for the C in AAA).
Are things perfect? No. The task was balance the cap, field a competitor by trading long-term commitments/good players, and build the farm. I mean, that’s actually a joke of a job and borderline unrealistic but yet somehow through trading Mookie, Price, letting Porcello walk.. signing Renfroe, Kike, getting years of control on Verdugo and getting better production from your core the Sox were able to be competitive while shedding payroll.
Here’s a comp: look at Renfroe’s numbers last year vs Giancarlo Stanton. Then look at the money they each made last year.
Moving forward the decisions don’t get any easier with Bogey and Devers. I’ve said that if both want $30+MM/year let them walk. Yes they are above average players, but their request is asking to paid as the BEST players, which they are not. Internally, the top prospects shouldn’t have to be rushed through. They may not even pan out but committing too much of your salary to 2 players will prevent the Sox from approaching any unique opportunities that might pop up down the road.
I’m interested to see how things shape up, who lands on market next year, what kind replacement options are available and for what price. I love both players. Hope to see them stay but not if they’re going to twist the arms of the Sox just because the Sox can afford to.
Pounds – I’m sorry I can’t remain silent for revisionist history.
The Red Sox success last year was largely due to a core group of players who Bloom had absolutely nothing to do with acquiring. There were five Sox players on the All-Star team, none of which were acquired by Bloom.
1 – Your “three capable SP’s” consist of a 42-year-old, a guy with a 5.11 ERA over the past three years, and a guy who likely won’t pitch until August at the earliest.
3 – Duran, Houck, Dalbec, Casas, Groome, Chatham …. all inherited by Bloom. And how did Bloom acquire Downs, Wong and Verdugo? Oh yeah, by trading a star player he inherited. And why didn’t Dombrowski have strong drafts in 2017-2019? Oh yeah, because the Sox won 3 consecutive division titles and a World Championship.
Did I mention one of Dombrowski’s top prospects died of cancer at age 17. I’m sure that’s Dombrowski’s fault too.
I like the way you give credit to Bloom for “developing” Dombrowski’s draft picks. I guess that means Dombrowski gets credit for “developing” players like Kopech and Moncada that were used to acquire Sale, as well as the prospects used to acquire Kimbrel. And Beeks for Eovaldi.
A young Red Sox executive being wrongly credited for players that were acquired thanks to a predecessor with the initials DD … why does that sound familiar? Hmmmm …
That’s the same with every GM. You can only work with the payroll structure and farm you inherited. I would judge any GM until at least 5 years in.
But that said, I’m very pleased with the direction we’ve taken.
Poundsy24 – I just read Fever Pitch Guy’s response which was excellent so I won’t double down on his points but I agree with everything.
I simply see an inexperienced GM struggling to find his way in a big market. It takes 30 months to contract an all-star but it took 3 months to give away two all-stars. The time table is backwards to help a team win.
Other than Mayer and Yorke, I don’t see any plan by Bloom. I think he’s going in the direction of Tampa Bay because that’s what he is comfortable with and knows how to do. The big market approach escapes him. So, until he acts in a new manner, I am projecting that the Red Sox will be patchwork as they have been since he took over. They are without a detailed plan. They have a concept only and the concept is winning consistently which they have not achieved in nearly 3 years.
If I was a fan anywhere else the 3 years of failure would be more acceptable but this GM is following a GM who showed up and won three straight Division Titles which was unheard of until he did it. That type of success sets expectations high. That GM planned a 2017 to 2022 window of success which included plans at every position.
Bloom is secretive so if he does have a plan he’s not transparent with it to the fans. That’s not smart because a man without a plan is perceived to be flying by the seat of his pants. That’s a very dangerous approach when following a legendary GM or two or three!!!
With DD we knew Benny would be in LF, JBJ in CF until Duran was ready, Mookie was going to be in Right Field. Under Bloom we thought Verdugo was going to be in Right Field and he’s now in Left Field. When Renfroe did so well it looked like the future was Renfroe in RF, Kiki in CF and Verdugo in LF but that changed too. Devers is still playing 3B despite his atrocious defense and that would be an easy fix for Bloom but it hasn’t happened.
Most importantly, 2019 was a year that started with a bonehead move by Cora in Spring Training, then an injury to Nate, then another error by Cora when he flip flopped Benny and Mookie, then another mistake when he moved JD down in the batting order and by the time Cora tried to right the ship the team was 10 out. It had nothing to do with DD. Cora failed miserably and we had a couple of key injuries. A championship team was dismantled because of the Cora mistakes and it was never really made clear why. The team won three straight years so success wasn’t an issue. The money spent by DD was under the cap each of his four years and was actually less than Bloom’s spending so money shouldn’t have been the issue. What does that leave? DD getting too much credit for the Red Sox success rather than the owners? The Patriot’s owner always was right there center stage after wins so maybe the Red Sox owners felt slighted. Or maybe, it just came down to them not liking DD and Mookie and Price and anyone else that felt they had the upper hand when dealing with them. Who knows? In the end, having a strong GM that knew what he was doing wasn’t working for them and they needed a gopher or puppet to command so they always got their way.
That doesn’t sound like much of a plan. Sounds like some ignorant owners that don’t understand why their franchise was so successful. Well, after 3 miserable years I would hope they are learning now!! Cheap doesn’t win rings. Smart spending means rings. Smart spending means higher Benefits from a player than his costs. The Wachas and Richards and Paxtons and Perezes and Hills and Santanas that have been acquired for the same amount of money it would have taken to replace Mookie and Price with quality players is Bloom’s legacy at this point. Story, Whitlock and Pivetta are his three big wins. The losses are too numerous to list. DD got Price, Sale and JD and overnight rejuvenated a team that had just saw Papi retire and had lost their luster.
We need an experienced person who has big market experience to come in and set a plan by position and a window for building this highly competitive team so fans can once again feel the team will compete in the coming year. Right now, it’s hope not confidence that fans have. We need to get back to having confidence.
Devers wants 12-15 year’s at 300M.. That’s not a bad deal for a generational player like him…
Why is this so hard for some of you to understand? The Boston Red Sox are simply not going to be giving ANYONE mega contracts of the length Harper, Seager, Betts, Cole, etc. received.
Nor should they. There is no reason you can’t build a winner without paying a player $200+MM. I’m much happier having my team pay a reasonable price for Verdugo instead of spending what the Dodgers are paying Betts — for only marginally better production, if that.
Devers & Bogaerts will have to make their fortunes elsewhere.
If Judge had taken that deal (like he should have), New York would have had over $90MM going to just three guys for a helluva long time. A team has 26 players! No way I’d want my team resources allocated like that. I’ll take the Bloom/Tampa approach any day of the week and twice on Sunday.
pt24601;
B I N G O
A hitter is only AB once every 9 batters.
A starting pitcher only throws 100 pitches once every 5-6 days. Workhorses pitch less then 200 innings; a team throws around 1,400 innings a year. A relief pitcher throws 60-70 innings a year. A great defender cannot control the ball being hit to him.
What Tampa, Milwaukee, Cleveland and even San Francisco have succeeded in doing is to spread the money around to a group on the 35-37 man roster (including the virtual roster from minor league callups). They can afford a few high priced players on long term contracts – but even then they will not commit to hundreds millions of dollars. Spread the downside risk around to avoid being boxed into a corner if an expensive player gets hurt. Avoid filling the roster with too many cheap players to offset the outrageous salaries; instead fill the roster out with players that can be used in situation they can produce in. A team has a much better chance of winning that way.
Agreed. It seems the game might be evolving. Difficult for a star coveting culture to come around too, but it certainly looks like an emphasis on the wider team and remaining nimble is the trend.
I’d also add that an uptick in club supplied support and player preparation has entered the fray. Less reliance on the individual just rocking up and being individually awesome. They rock up and a whole lot of people have been spending the preceding hours working on how they can best approach their day.
pt – I think you must have missed the $182M guaranteed contract the Rays just gave Wander Franco.
Superstars don’t grow on trees, in order to be competitive nearly every year AND justify the most expensive ticket prices, you’ve got to retain stars for several years. Where would the Sox have been if not for the mega-contracts given to Pedro and Manny?
I wrote: [a team] “can afford a few high priced players on long term contracts”.
Franco is getting a 12 year contract with and AAV of $15.5m.
You think the players being discussed want an AAV of $15.6m?
To be fair in the complex case of Franco, AVV is probably not the best way to measure it rather taking post ARB earning and AAV that. But your point does still stand
I was responding to the comment “There is no reason you can’t build a winner without paying a player $200+MM” in which pt also mentioned Tampa as a supposed example.
Approx $200M contracts are still $200M risk, whether it’s over 6 years or 12 years they can still burn a team badly. At least with the 6-year deal there’s a greater chance the player will still be playing and contributing throughout the life of the contract. Imagine the final 6 years of the Tatis contract if his health forces him into an early bench position or retirement, it would be totally dead money for the final six years and create a financial burden for a much longer period of time.
I agree with your general premise, but Betts is more than marginally better than Verdugo.
pt24601 – To each his own but your team isn’t winning anything. History proves that!! I’ll take the team with the expensive Betts over the average Verdugo any day. If this team was in Pittsburgh rather than Boston and couldn’t pay for a guy like Betts I might buy into your poor man’s philosophy but since the Red Sox make enormous profits EXPENSIVE PLAYERS WORK IN BOSTON!!! Cheap will always be cheap. You don’t win with cheap.
DD had it right when he built the team. You take 2/3 of your available money and get 6 elite players for big bucks then you fill out the rest of your roster with players under team control or who are inexpensive yet talented.
A dozen team controlled players cost roughly $10MM. If you have 6 players making $150MM that leaves $50MM to fill out the remaining 20 players. Take $10 for the dozen controllable players and that leaves 8 players making $40MM in total or an average of $5MM per player. Ideally, the six elite players are 3 elite hitters that are excellent fielders and 3 elite starting pitchers. I’ll use the $200MM that way and beat any team with 26 players making $12MM or less. Bloom is running the team into the ground by limiting the number of elite players that carry the team to the playoffs and WS championships.
I’ll take the DD way and let the TBs and other small market teams be the little engine that couldn’t.
They need to offer Devers a minimum of 8 years given his age. An 8 year, $250M deal should be their ceiling. If he wants more than that then they may need to trade him as I don’t see Boston giving him a $300M deal.
As far as Bogaerts goes, they should max out at a 6 year deal. 6/$150M seems reasonable to me. While Bogaerts is a great hitter, he’s not a $30M/yr. player as his defense is average at best and he’s turning 30 next year. The good news is that a ton of payroll comes off the Red Sox ledger next year so they can afford both guys if they really want to, but it would block both Mayers & Yorke now that Story is here. As painful as it would be, I could see them let Xander walk after this year, Story moves to SS and they re-sign Kike to fill in at 2B until Yorke or Mayer is ready. Hate to lose Xander but if he wants too much money, he’s not worth it.
Sorry if this posts twice. For some reason, my first post has been awaiting moderation for over an hour.
Boston needs to offer Devers a minimum of 8 years given his age. I understand why Devers is asking for a 10 year deal, but an 8-year, $250M feels like the most they’d be willing to go. They could throw in a vesting option as well. If he wants more than this then they may need to trade him as I don’t see Boston giving him a $300M deal regardless of how good he is offensively. His defense is suspect and he’s a candidate to put on weight as he ages. Hopefully not as much as Panda did while ‘playing’ for Boston, but he has the body type where he’ll need to work harder each year to keep the extra pounds off of his frame. Losing Devers would be extremely painful as he is a Top 10 offensive player in the league right now and he’s just hitting his prime.
As far as Bogaerts goes, they should max out at a 6 year deal. As with Devers, they could include a vesting option for year 7. 6/$150M seems reasonable to me. While Bogaerts is a great hitter, he’s not a $30M/yr. player. His defense is slightly below average at age 29 and he turns 30 next year. All of the comps they added to the article are for players who are much better defenders than Xander, or in Bryant’s case, much more flexible position-wise. With all of that payroll coming off of the Red Sox ledger next year, Boston can easily afford both guys if they really want to but (3) long-term, IF contracts (Devers, Bogaerts, Story) would block both Mayer & Yorke. As painful as it would be, I could see them letting Xander walk after this year. Story moves to SS and they either go with Arroyo or re-sign Kiké to fill in at 2B until Yorke or Mayer is ready. As a Sox fan, I’d hate to lose Xander but if he wants too much money and/or too many years, he’s not worth it even if he agrees to move to 1B or a corner OF position. There’s the Casas ‘problem’ too should they move Xander over to 1B. Not a bad problem for Boston to have. They have (3) Top 100 prospects in Mayer, Yorke and Casas ready to fill the void should one or both of there players leave.
Any1 c VladdieMVP 2nite .?! X10shunn time!!
“a friend of Bogaerts calling the team’s proposal “a slap in the face.”
Just looking out for his sugar daddy
They should have extended Bogaerts instead of signing Story. They took more of a risk with signing Story, as he was coming off a down season and his career splits away from Coors are not great. There’s no guarantee that he’s going to be the level of player that he was with the Rockies, especially as he enters his 30s. Bogaerts has proven to be an elite hitter who has finally reached his full potential the past few seasons, and while his defense isn’t very good, he has a better arm than Story and thus could shift to 3B when Marcelo Mayer is ready to take over SS. As a Red Sox fan, I hate that they spent all that money on Story instead of re-signing their franchise player who should remain a top hitter for years to come. Bloom’s first huge mistake as GM.
Bogaerts is a sensational hitter, He’s a poor SS, the most important defensive position next to C.
He reminds me of the classic line Pete Axthelm wrote after a playoff series between the Royals and Yankees:
“George Brett’s bat and glove kept both teams in the games”.
Samuel – If you dig into the faulty metrics that suggest Bogey is anything less than an above average shortstop you will find that there is a very distinct bias in the modern metrics. Put an overly aggressive player situated in front of another player and the over aggressive player can hurt the team mates numbers significantly by using bad baseball acumen to decide which ground balls to pursue. Devers destroys Bogaerts modern metrics but Bogey’s normal defensive metrics are above average.
How does this happen? Each time Devers cuts in front of Bogaerts on a play that should go to Bogaerts he reduces Bogaerts range factor. If there is a runner on 3B and he cuts in front to make the play at the plate and doesn’t get the runner when Bogey would have he’s reduced Bogey’s Runs Saved metric. Devers impacts so many of Bogey’s metrics it’s a crime. The modern metrics need to add baseball acumen to their equations and penalize bad choices by a player when it comes to attempting to field a ball not meant for them. Devers realizes he can artificially pump up his defense by simply being far more over aggressive than he should be. He literally pumps up his defense by making more mistakes and in turn reduces Bogeys ranking in the process!! That’s a huge problem with fielding metrics as they exist today.
So Bogaerts is NOT a bad defender, he simply plays next to the worst defender in the history of the Red Sox and his bad play affects Bogey’s modern metric numbers. The long standing measure of defensive success, the fielding percentage, still documents the success rate of balls fielded by him and his success rate of retiring the batter. From that perspective, Bogey is above league average and 3rd among the elite SSs in baseball.
KD – You just backed yourself into a corner my friend.
Xander has played alongside Devers for only the past 4+ seasons.
What’s his excuse from 2014 thru mid-2017? Do you not remember Xander’s moving to 3B for 50 games started in 2013/2014? Do you not remember why they did it, and how it didn’t work out?
On to hour #3 type time. Keyboard is tired.
FPG – I believe you have the facts wrong.
2013 Bogey was called up and played in just 18 games. He was at shortstop in 9 and 3B in 8 so one game he played both positions. He had NO ERRORS in 18 chances at 3B and NO ERRORS in 26 chances at SS. Clearly he had no fielding issues in 2013!! I have no idea what the modern metrics suggest about 2013 and frankly since they are bogus I don’t really care.
In 2014 they started Bogey at 3B as a carry over from the previous season but his defense was equivalent to Devers so after 44 games he replaced Drew at shortstop and never played 3B again. His fielding percentage at 3B was .910 but his fielding percentage at SS in 2014 was .975 when league average was .973. Yes, he was above league average as a 21 year old starting SS. FYI.. Bogey played only 10 of his 356 minor league games at 3B the rest were at SS!!
In 2015 at 22 years old his fielding percentage was .984 and league average was .972 so he was far above league average by his second full season at SS.
From 2016 through 2021 Bogey was above league average every year except 2017. So yes, Bogey’s defense wasn’t great in 1 of his 9 seasons at shortstop!! Devers showed up that year!!!
After Devers showed up Bogey consistently provided fielding percentages comparable to his early years so for his career his fielding percentage is .978 and league average is .973.
I guess I’m confused by your comments. I’m not backed into a corner at all. I pointed out that Bogey was error less at age 20 at SS then above league average every year throughout the rest of his career except the year Devers got promoted to the majors.
I don’t follow modern metrics so if you have a point about the years before Devers was promoted I missed it. All I know is that the REAL metric for fielding shows Bogey has been excellent throughout his career except for the year Devers arrived in Boston.
So please enlighten me. How am I backed into a corner?
“Bloom’s first huge mistake as GM.”
So you think that trading Refroe for Bradley was a good idea?
Actually, it’s funny you mention the Renfroe trade because that is the one other move I absolutely hated at the time and still do. If they had signed Seiya Suzuki to replace Renfroe, it would have made plenty of sense… but they didn’t. I was extremely disappointed with Bloom’s offseason. Signing Trevor Story over extending Bogaerts or upgrading the pitching more was just stupid.
Renfroe’s 3-for-21 is right where he left off last year. I think we got lucky with his performance in 2021, obviously it’s way too soon to judge that trade but I’m fine with Bloom making it.
Paxton could be a huge win, especially next year.
FPG – You like to gamble don’t you? Paxton is a gamble, a big gamble. You know he is costing $10MM in 2022 and if the Red Sox exercise his option for 2023 it will be for another $10MM..
It’s not very likely he will contribute in 2022 so Bloom would need your gambler’s perspective to renew his contract. If he does, then in 2023 Boston would have a pitcher who hasn’t pitched a full season or put up good numbers for at least 3 years. Could he be good in 2023? Sure and he could be horrible or hurt in 2023 as well.
The Renfroe trade took a player under control for 2 years at $3MM per year and traded him for an ex-player we released making $11MM a year and we got back for $12MM per year. So the net cost per year is $9MM to have a lesser player and two prospects that won’t arrive in the next 3 years if ever. So, just on money alone we gave up $18MM for those two prospects. To put that into perspective. If Mookie was paid $36MM by Boston it would have been a $9MM raise in 2021. Not doing the JBJ deal would have paid for that raise in 2022 and 2023!! Leaving only 8 years of $9MM to cover the Mookie deal.
Neither the JBJ deal nor the Paxton deal are financially sound moves AND neither provides a quality player which means they don’t help the team.
THREE WINS for Bloom – Whitlock, Story and Pivetta. That’s it in nearly 3 years. To make things worse, the bad talent provided by Bloom is being given opportunities they don’t deserve by Cora. A .250 hitter in 2021 and a .241 lifetime hitter batting lead off is absurd especially when you acquire a guy like Story who is fast and hits for a much higher average or even Verdugo who is off to a fast start but appears to trending toward a career batting average close to .300. See when you couple bad resource choices with a manager who has no clue you get a Red Sox line-up that has to work twice as hard to win. Think about what that means in relation to 2021!!! Kudos to Bogey, JD, Devers and others for winning despite Cora’s mistakes and without any assistance from their GM. That’s what makes 2021 impressive to me. The players rose up and tried to do it themselves but fell short. Valiant effort on their part.
I know you didn’t like Renfroe much but his price was good even if he failed in 2022. JBJ’s is 4 times as expensive and he’s likely to finish well below Renfroe, much closer to Kiki in that .240 to .250 range.
“Bloom’s first huge mistake as GM.”
So you think that trading Refroe for Bradley was a good idea?
====================================
It’s super early, and the stats are almost meaningless, but as of today, we are absolutely killing it.
JBJ is outperforming Renfroe, so far, but that’s kind of meaningless.
But Binelas & Hamilton are doing great, inasmuch as a 25 ABs count for anything.
Binelas has a 9/6 K/W with 3 HRs.
Hamilton has a 4/4 K/W, with 2 HRs and an 8/0 SB/CS.
If they can continue that development, they can both be pros.
What an insulting offer to Bogaerts. Why even bother making it?
The front office has to understand they cannot afford, in terms of fan capital, to lose both players, and after trading Mookie, it might be a bad idea to let one walk.
Yeah, this Bogaerts thing isn’t going to sit well with the fans at all. I totally understand not giving Mookie almost $400 million through age 40, but not being willing to give Bogaerts a Semien type deal when he’s still an elite bat right in the middle of his prime and when the fans still have a bad taste in their mouths over losing the previous face of the team… it’s just not a good look to lowball him and potentially make him want to leave.
People will forget they’re mad if the team wins
OK, I’ll stop after this……
This is like the nonsensical media saying: “It just looks bad”.
Here’s what large market teams have to decide – do you want to primarily sell entertainment or winning?
–
Get it straight – the stars fans want to keep so badly have a track record of walking out on them for more money more often than not.
Loyalty works 2 ways.
There is already quite a bit of chatter here about Tampa Bay lite, ownership caring more about their hockey team/other ventures, etc, *before* losing either of X and Devers. The days of the multiyear sellout streak are long over. There is very real potential for long term damage to the market and ability to recapture those prior attendance records. I think it’s a mistake to wave it away as just media noise.
Players notice front office/ownership patterns as well. Mishandling something can lead to implications for potential moves or non moves down the road. In the case of Xander, he’s been in the organization for 13 years and is widely regarded as a core team leader. I understand the spreadsheet baseball flavored algorithm concerns about the player, but it’s irrational to place no value whatsoever on what the player brings to the table – which, by the way, is a silver slugger, so let’s not act like it’s some over-the-hill bit player either.
Also, the player the lineup collapses without, is Devers. And if I see the team dick around with my buddy/mentor X, screw it, I don’t owe these guys nothin’.
There is already quite a bit of chatter here about Tampa Bay lite, ownership caring more about their hockey team/other ventures, etc,
=========================================
That’s just hack writers trying to get hits. All the real know fans know we are over the cap.
There’s a lot more people considering going to games beyond “real fans”
Sox begin next offseason over 100m under luxury tax threshold, letting big pieces walk while patching holes with 1yr reclamation projects, is not going to go over well.
Both Bogaerts & Devers are generational players & they deserve to be payed like it as well.. what the Red Sox are banking on is that their prospects are going to be just as good or better than both of them & that’s a big risk for the future of the organization.. very bold.. too bold in my opinion & I don’t think any of our prospects are anywhere near close to being the generational players Bogaerts & Devers are.. Period…
Generational hitters…..
Devers is essentially this generation’s Edgar Martinez in the making.
Bucketbrew35 – No offense but that’s crazy talk!!
Edgar Martinez is legendary. For 18 years he averaged a 147 OPS+.
Devers’ best two years are 132 and 131 in 2019 and 2021..
The other three years were 94, 107 (2020 in 57 games) and 112 (2017 58 games)
Devers MIGHT some day be as good at DHing as JD was in his prime. Maybe.
Before you put him in the HOF, lets see if Devers can have two good years in a row!!
I don’t think it’s too much of a stretch. Devers defense hurts his value. Both started in the league at a very young age but Martinez shifted to full time DH much sooner than Devers.
If Devers focused completely on hitting I could absolutely see him ascending to Martinez’ s level. He’s already approached that ceiling with his bat before age 25, which is insane to think about.
Did you even look at the huge difference between their good years? Devers would need to take it up a notch or two to be at Edgar’s level of success hitting. The guys had 2 of 4 years that were above league average. Edgar far exceeds anything Devers has done so far. This is an even year so we don’t even know if Devers will be good or bad this year. Yes, he’s had a fast start but he’s a streaky hitter so his May numbers could more than off set his fast start in April. After the season, we should at least know if he can put two good years together back to back. As of now, he’s not done that.
From an age perspective, there are lots of players doing much better than him at younger ages. Off the top of my head we have Franco, Tatis, Acuna, Guerrero, Bichette and Alvarez. Devers isn’t in their rarified air. He’s a tier 2 guy who has had just 2 good years by age 25.
Guerrero is 2 years younger and far outshines Devers on offense. Bichette is one year younger and outshines him. Wander Franco has played just 80 games and outshines him and he’s four years younger. Devers is not that special. He’s above average like so many others. He’s not an elite player deserving elite money like Bogey.
Edgar was elite too so I stand by my viewpoint that Devers won’t be a modern day Edgar. Edgar was a hitting machine. Devers won’t win any batting titles but Edgar did.
Devers’ range and mobility isn’t the problem. Very good on quick reaction picks to the side. Many of his errors come on wild throws and routine plays. He beats himself up and will take a strikeout with him into the field, or an error with him to the plate. It’s been frustrating because if you actually watch instead of just looking at the statistics, the building blocks for a solid third baseman are absolutely there. It’s a matter of putting it together.
I completely agree rhswanzey Devers can be a decent defensive third baseman from an athletic standpoint.
If you look at Devers footwork in the past few years it was suboptimal lots of throws where his feet weren’t in the correct position. So far this year his footwork looks excellent and hopefully this will help him become the defender some of believe he can become.
I think he has some athletic ADD going on. I’ve seen him make some plays that very few 3Bs can make, followed a throw that just sails away.
Be fair. The guy has positional vertigo when he fields a ground ball. He can’t keep his balance. He falls down on most of his backhand plays, he’s horrendous on charging ground balls, his reaction time is terrible, he has no idea which balls to go for and which to let Bogaerts field, he can’t hit the broad side of barn with his throws, his hands are hard, his footwork is atrocious and I’m not sure his vision is all that good since so many balls hit him in the feet and wrist.
Thinking Devers isn’t a butcher is silly. All the data supports that he’s never been good at fielding. He’s just as bad as he was at 16. To think there will be a sudden change in year 9 after the first 8 years have been a disaster is the definition of insanity!! His impact on the pitching staff is unforgivable. ERAs, WHIPs, pitches thrown, stress innings and even pitch location are all impacted by his ineptitude.
There is no justification for allowing Devers to have a glove!!
Bogie gets traded at the deadline.
Bogarts is a good player, but not a great one. He is not worth more than they are already paying him. Look forward to seeing him walk. He wants a long contract which will end up blocking out phenom prospect at that position. Let him go join the Dodgers or the Yankees and he can strike out with bases loaded in the games that matter with them. Bye bye.
X is gone… and that’s fine
Boston will need to sink its monies everywhere next year so with the upcoming inf prospects they have no choice but to bet on the come here
I expect this team to attack the SP market very aggressively next year
Their going to need an identity and slugging it out over the few offensive players next year in free agency isn’t the path. Build the staff, that pens young, cheap, and nasty and your right in line for a playoff spot
* I’d take the under on X 8/200 on the market and I like X
I don’t see a team giving Bogaerts anything vaguely close to 8/200.
Bogaerts is a Fenway creation. Bogaerts away from Fenway hits .268/.333/.420. Those numbers are during his peak years throughout his 20s. He’s not a great defensive SS and as he enters his 30s he will need to move off SS to 2B. Not enough bat for third. Even a team signing him at a 5/90 will be profoundly disappointed.
His legacy and hopes of producing decent batting lines remains in Boston. If he stays, put Story at SS and X at 2B.
They should focus on signing Devers.
Wow .. I never thought anyone would surpass Samuel in WPP ( words per post ) but my hat is off to you KD17. I have no idea if you know what you are talking about because if I wanted to read a book I’d..go get a book. but congrats!
I wasn’t sure who you were talking about until I scrolled upwards. Sometimes I can get wordy, but nothing approaching those two.
Lorddgg – everyone gets wordy from time to time not a big deal – I’m sure I’m guilty of it myself on occasion but some take it to the extreme on a regular basis. Imagine how many posts they would have to do if MLBTR put a 150 character limit on each post
You know who really wrote long posts was that Missed War/Hammer guy. I haven’t seen him recently though.
Ditto! I’ve been known to be verbose at times, but I have my limits. It’s just not worth the time and effort for me to go that long. Not that there’s anything wrong with writing a book, to each their own.
No issues at all. We’re all baseball obsessives, having a good time for the most part. I’ve gone off on many a jag, so I try not to criticize long notes hoping others will be kind when I get wordy. Fortunately, I’m usually typing on a mobile preventing me from going overboard. I enjoy well thought out posts from commenters, and sometimes we just feel better letting thoughts fly.
Lord – I agree.
I’ll take the extra-long maximum effort post over the one-sentence insult post any day of the week.
Samuel is at least rational in his posts and explains things well. KD is just a troll who doesn’t understand modern baseball
Red Sox management has been very smart about who they decide not to sign/extend, but less successful with who they decide to sign/extend. I think they will target one of these two and make a legitimate effort on that one, but I don’t think they are going to break the bank for either of the two. There’s talent in the farm system, and they don’t have to have either.
I believe Henry wants Bloom to build a sustainable model, even out some of the boom-and-bust cycles. Maintain a high payroll, but make hard choices. Granted, I speak from the other side of the rivalry, but I actually wanted to see Mookie playing RF for the Red Sox for the next decade. Having faces of a franchise makes fandom more fun whether you’re rooting for a team or against. I want Judge to remain a Yankee, but I fear what he’ll be post 34/35. I’ve said my thoughts on Bogaerts. He’s a fine player, but I’m not sure how he’ll do in his 30s away from Fenway. Devers is another story. That bat plays. I’d focus on signing him and figuring out his long-term position. The Red Sox signing Story (good deal) may indicate they’re planing to move on from Bogaerts. Just an outside opinion.
Faces of a franchise is also essential for revenue. When fans are familiar with certain players and grow to really like them, they are more likely to buy tickets and watch games on TV. Lots of Sox fans bought tickets and tuned in just to see Papi and Pedro.
The Rays attendance and ratings dropped significantly after Longoria was traded, even when the team was winning. I think they realized that which is why they locked up Wander so early.
I’m on the other side of the divide as well. A lot of fans talk about the Tampa model, but it isn’t truly applicable to big market teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, etc, The small market teams have structural advantages built into the CBA that are difficult to replicate….not only do they get a lot money regardless of whether they choose to compete, but they get better draft pick placement. Longer term, the things that most moderate salary increases are talent in the pipeline. Even the Yankees showed that this offseason, when they didn’t bid on the big name shortstops. Would Correa’s contract been different if the Yankees were in?
You know there is a very good chance that Heyman got it twisted. I think the Sox offered to add $30 million to the last 3 yrs of the contract making it 3/$90 million and Heyman just assumed it was a fourth year at $30 million added. X could be upset that it doesn’t add years and thus is “far apart” from what he wants. Just a thought. – .it doesn’t make sense that the Sox would think that adding a year would appease X.
I doubt Heyman has any idea of what the offer was. I don’t know if Bloom wants to keep eithen, neither, or both. But I doubt he offered Bogaerts $90M/4. There is no way he’d sign that. He’ll be looking for $180M/6, and we’ll be looking at $150M/6.
You have two defensively questionable players.
Bogaerts has a few disadvantages:
1) Story on the roster and he is a better SS.
2) Mayer and Yorke are in the pipe. Odds are one will be good enough to keep Story at 2B or be the 2B of the future.
3) Age. Being 4 years older do they want to tie up long term to a player at a defensive position who is more a plus hitter and a mediocre defender?
Devers makes sense. If he does slide he either becomes a DH or if Dalbec or Casas aren’t the long term fit then 1B.
There is flexibility with Devers where there isn’t with Bogaerts.
This is probably the first time I’ve ever heard that there is more flexibility with a third baseman (a 240 third baseman at that) than a short stop. (insert crying with laughter emoji).
Breaking news, if a guy has the athleticism to play short stop, he can play pretty much anywhere on the field. Arm strength to play third or outfield, range to play second base, and Bogaerts is plenty tall enough to play first base.
Your not factoring in budget, options and practicality. Your assumption is sign Bogaerts and hope he accepts a move. You are also going to have to pay a premium SS price when you have cheaper options in the pipeline. Devers also has one more controllable year where Bogaerts is an upcoming FA. You have to factor in the team as a whole. The team has plenty of hitting. Losing one and shifting that payroll to a quality starting pitcher is a bigger need right now.
I love when people change their argument when they lose.
But with that said, shortstops have a premium price? In the ten highest paid position players, 3 are short stops, 3 are third basemen, 2 are first basemen, 2 outfielders. Shortstops only get paid a premium when they are premium defenders with premium bats, Correa, Lindor and Seager.
If you want to argue total contract, it’s because the three mentioned shortstops (and a lot of shortstops in general) reach free agency at a younger age because they are generally getting called up earlier due to their ability and athleticism.
If you are factoring in budget, it’s important to know what your future spending is other wise you are having the same conversation next season with Devers and you have no idea what the long term outlook looks like.
The team has plenty of hitting now but how is that offense looking without Bogaerts and Martinez next season… or did you get too wrapped around the axle and assume Martinez is going to be there next year as well? I’m going to be the barer of bad news for you, Story is NOT a fit for Boston. Story has a ton of red flags offensively and Boston chose to ignore all of them.
I’m assuming Bogaerts accepts a move… you are assuming Devers does. Unless you really think a 240 pound third baseman who was a poor defender at 210 is the solution…
I feel as if you are not looking at the red flags with Devers, the dude has gained 30 pounds since entering the league, his defense is not improving at all, as a matter of fact, last season was his worst defensive season by far. He isn’t taking care of his body now, I would be greatly concerned about his work ethic once he signs a mega contract.
Bogaerts already signed a large contract with lots of guarenteed money and continues to come to camp in shape and produces at a high offensive level. I think there is a little more stability with him than RD.
But DH and 1B don’t pay like they once did. You’re talking Miguel Cabrera money. What was the most they paid Big Papi?
See Freddie Freeman
I guess it depends on what your definition of 2b of the future is, but even for guys ranked in that 15-25ish area, their history of being even average MLB players (2.0 fwar) is about 50/50.
I know there have been some writers that have taken a look at this over the years. I’m not sure if there are any more recent looks done, but the past ones have shown just how rare it really is for prospects, even good ones, to be good MLB players.
X reluctance to move off SS is the driving force in the offer made to him. Were he to embrace positional change, the money would be there.
We don’t know what his long-term views are. Sticking at SS for 2022 makes perfect sense, since he is playing for a contract. If/when he signs, he might be more than willing to move to 3rd, with Story at SS.
True, we don’t know what his long term views are. We do know that when Stephen Drew came back that he was not pleased. There was reluctance to play third at that juncture, and he was vocal concerning it. He clearly stated earlier this year that he was a shortstop. One can argue that he is playing for a contract, and will most likely walk at year’s end. Were he to get what he wants monetarily, could he be happy not being at SS for the Sox? One way or the other, Story, if healthy, will be at short in 23.
If I asked you which team leads the majors in Runs, RBI, BA and OPS, would you know without looking it up that it’s the Cleveland Guardians?
How about that? I know — it’s only six games. But it’s nice to see after reading all the put-downs of that low-budget franchise.
Most fans ave shiny object syndrome. Same as writers. They tend to value acquisitions of big-name players with no regard for the costs. When players like Straw are acquired and extended, they don’t even notice.
This site did notice and write about Straw’s 5-year extension, but among those who didn’t waste everyone’s time including their own by still obsessing over the name of the team, the appreciation for Straw was mixed, at best. I pointed out to one commenter who called him one-dimensional that one of the best defenders in the league is not a one-dimensional player.
The appreciation was mixed because casual fans don’t understand the importance of fielding, nor can they contextualize a mix of fielding and hitting. Straw actually had an OPS+ of 93. Below average, but for a glove-first CF, that’s pretty good.
But there is no reason to try to explain that to the folks that rely on the back of the BB card stats.
Back in my day, instead of “dimensional” it was “tools”.
A player like Straw would be at least a 2-tool player. Someone who is good at catching and throwing the ball.
The best players, like Mookie, would be called a 5-tool player:
Great glove
Great arm
Great speed
Hits for average
Hits for power
These long term contracts work out 5% of the time and Bloom is way too smart
As a die hard Red Sox fan it will be hard to watch Bogey go but I don’t think they are going to give him the contract he is gong to want and quite frankly deserve. I am guessing that Bogey is going to want something maybe a little north of what Semien got since he will be a year younger when he hits free agency. I also believe that Semien contract will age poorly.
The argument about just looking at errors is just ridiculous. Bogey is pretty sure handed and he does an excellent job of converting the chances he gets to into outs but his range is easily, this is generous, bottom 1/3 of all shortstops. His range is terrible and he should no longer be a shortstop. If you have watched any of the games this season watching Story in the field now there is a guy with range it makes Bogey look like he has cement galoshes for shoes. Bogey really should be a second baseman at this point he is clearly not the best defensive option at shortstop for the Red Sox. This is the biggest reason that if Bogey wants to be paid like a top of line shortstop then the Red Sox are going to have to let him walk.
Rafael Devers is an excellent hitter he is now the most feared hitter in the Boston Red Sox lineup. He is only 25 and he seems to be getting better and better offensively. It is possible that he he will make the leap to a truly elite hitter this year. Rafael has been a very good hitter and I believe out all of the Red Sox hitters right now he has a good chance of improving his offense and becoming truly elite as a hitter. I know that there is an argument that he is an every other year hitter but after this year that ridiculous argument will be laid to rest completely.
The elephant in the room is of course Devers defense which has been truly awful. I am in the camp that Devers can easily handle the hot corner from an athletic standpoint, the argument that he is fat is truly ridiculous. He looks like he is in the best shape of his life to me and is moving very well let me repeat he is not fat and unathletic that couldn’t be further from the truth. what Devers does have is lapses in concentration where he makes bucket loads of silly errors, mostly throwing, to this point he has not shown he is a long term third baseman. I don’t believe you can just look at somebody’s fielding percentage and say they are good or bad defensively. If you just look at Story and Bogey defensively Bogey actually has a higher career fielding percentage does that mean he is better defensively then Story absolutely not its not even close Story is a far superior and I mean far superior defender then Bogey.
The problem with Devers defensively is he simply makes to many errors you just cant make that many errors and remain viable at the position. It would be irresponsible of Bloom’s stewardship of the Red Sox to sign Devers to multi year mega contract at this point. He has not shown the ability to reduce his errors and be truly viable at third long term. At this point Devers contract is a bargain because of his offense but, due to his defense, it would be a poor use of funds to give 30-35 million over 10 years. The ball is in Devers court he needs to show he is viable at third if he wants that big contract. He isn’t a free agent until after next season show the improvement defensively if you want to be paid that much. If he doesn’t he will be a very expensive DH the clock is ticking he better improve or he won’t come close to that contract that he wants.
My guess is that Bogey walks and unless Devers improves immensely defensively he will probably not be signed to an extension either. Now if Devers does cut his errors in half and becomes what I think he is capable of at third then you sign him to an extension all day long.
Thank you for that dose of rationality.
The Devers situation is actually quite simple and easy for Bloom to address. He simply tells Devers and his agent improve defensively at third show that you are worth the long term investment as viable position player or not. If you don’t show the necessary defensive improvement then you aren’t getting that 10 year 300-350 million contract from not just us but no team will.
I think the best way to look at Devers long-term is probably as a DH and pay him as a DH. I doubt he will agree to that right now unfortunately.
That offer to Bogaerts is Jon Lester redux. Any offer to him should have guaranteed he’d end his career in Boston. Six years, minimum.
They offered Lester $70M/4yrs ….. that ridiculous lowball offer is burned in my memory.
$120M/6yrs would have got it done and would have still been a bargain, but the arrogant Sox were coming off a WS championship and they knew how bad Lester wanted to stay in Boston.
Neither applies to Devers or Xander. They will both go for max dollars just like Mookie did … and besides, Xander already gave them a hometown discount when he signed the extension with Dombrowski.
If sale opts out, they should let him walk
They would, but there’s zero chance he will.
What ever happened to when you signed a contract, you honored the contract. If Xander had blown out a knee like Dustin, he would still be paid. The Sox gave him a deal he was more than happy with back a few years ago. Now, after other SS’s get big $$ he wants to opt out, basically he wanted his cake now he wants more cake and eat that too. Will he reimburse Sox when he has two good years and sucks the last five? Boy, look at Sale’s deal he signed, what a great move that was for the team. These opt out options built into deals, by greedy agents and players need to end. If you sign a deal, you sign it. If you want to get out of the deal you previously signed a couple years ago, just because the market for your services has got bigger, Screw you. You signed the deal. There’s ZERO integrity with these players today. You want to hear cheers from a crowd, go buy yourself a sound effects box. Otherwise, players that sign deals and want opt out clauses, fine! When you begin to suck and your skills deteriorate, find another sucker and enjoy the deal you get then. Any player that decides to use their opt out option, have a great career, ELSEWHERE!!
db – You’re missing a huge point. Players take less money than what they want, and often what they deserve, in lieu of opt outs. The only reason Xander gave Dombrowski a hometown discount was because of the opt outs, no different than JD and a slew of other players.
Yes players and agents are often greedy, but opt outs are not a good example of that.
FPG – I agree BUT the word greedy is unfair. Self serving is ok. Asking for fair market value isn’t greedy to me it’s smart but it is self serving.
My issue is that we get rid of guys like Mookie and Bogey and pretend their is a risk of poor performance but that risk is the same on a one year versus a 10 year contract. Any year could be bad it’s got nothing to do with the contract. It’s the total value of the contribution over the contract versus the total cost of the contract that needs to be weighed and since Boston practically prints money with it’s franchise any player that provides more value for a contract than it costs is a good player to add no matter how many years or how many dollars. Treat this like a business and set a desired rate of return on you money.and spend as much as you want because your profits are exorbitant!
Some folks try to use OPS+ to determine the break even on a contract and others try to use WAR. I always look at the OPS+ of a guy like Verdugo or Benny and peg them as slightly above league average. How much do you pay a guy with a 110 to 115 OPS+ versus a guy with a 130 OPS+ versus a guy with a 150 or higher OPS+.?
Also, how many years do you go back to determine their projected OPS+ using a past average and a projection of change to that average. For example, Bogey averaged a 132 OPS+ over the last four years and so far is at 131 in 2022. If he got 6 more years he would be 35 when the contract completed. How many standard deviations above the 100 norm is Bogey and how does that translate to money? Or do we simply compare using fair market theory and look at the OPS+ of the elite shortstops and their current pay?.
OPS+ Data for 2018 to 2022 (Current salary after name)
Bogey(20MM) – 135, 139, 128, 126 and so far in 2022 it’s 131
Lindor(34.1MM) – 131, 118, 104, 101 and so far in 2022 it’s 197
Seager(32.5 MM) – 103, 112, 150, 145 and so far in 2022 it’s 127 in Texas
Tatis(24.3MM*) – DNP, 154, 156, 166 and is hurt in 2022
T Turner(21MM*) – 100, 117, 162, 145 and so far in 2022 it’s 124 with LAD
Baez(23.3MM) – 129, 115, 59, 115 and so far in 2022 it’s 159 in DET
Correa(35.1MM) – 99, 137, 93, 131 and so far in 2022 it’s 52 in MIN
Bichette(0.9MM*) – DNP, 144, 127, 120 and so far in 2022 it’s 61
What does this show? Tatis is in a bracket by himself!! But he needs to stay healthy to earn it.
Bogey is better than the guys making $30MM+ so paying him $20MM a year is a gross under pay. Considering Mayer is supposed to be ready by 2025 why not offer Bogey 4 years for $120M with no opt outs. Unfortunately, with Story on the books for even longer Bloom has boxed himself into a corner because Story will need to play elsewhere after 2024. Yorke should be up by then so it can’t be 2B. That leaves 3B but people argue with me that his arm isn’t healthy enough to play 3B but I think it is. So in 2025 the infield could be Story at 3B, Mayer at SS and Yorke at 2B. Where would Bogey play in 2025?
So it makes no sense to offer anything to Bogey now that Story is here to be the stopgap until Mayer is ready. Thus, Bogey is gone by the end of the season and fans will be even more unhappy if he has a huge 2022. Bloom handled throwing away Mookie so I’m sure another one or two won’t be any big deal. He came to Boston as the Grim Reaper and will leave Boston as the guy that destroyed the franchise. Yes, many will argue the ownership made him do it but either way the franchise will be destroyed and at least 3 home grown stars will have been sent packing with the message don’t let the door hit you in your hind quarters!!
As a fan I dread these upcoming years. Lost stars and bad teams that won’t win the division let alone a ring. Lots of false promises as we’ve already seen. There is no sustained greatness after nearly three years but after 3 years with DD there was yet some folks still sing Bloom’s praises and are apologists for his lack of success. They also promise things will be better in the future.. I say how could they be worse? That doesn’t mean things will be good if we follow the unpublicized path of Bloom. It’s got more of a religious undertone. We need to put all our trust in Bloom without a defined plan and have faith that the promises will happen. Yeah, not going to happen for me.
You would do the same thing, as would I, and as would everyone in here. Options are a financial asset that are bought and sold. It’s like buying something, and paying extra for a warranty. The warranty is an asset for you because you paid for it.