In an about-face from an earlier report, it appears one of the Red Sox’ best starters is destined to reach free agency at season’s end after all. Right-handed pitcher Nathan Eovaldi was previously thought to be open to mid-season extension talks, but WEEI’s Rob Bradford reports that Eovaldi has no desire to discuss contract matters during the season. Bradford adds that there is an expectation the righty’s camp will be in contact with the team after the 2022 campaign concludes.
It’s commonplace for players in walk years to halt extension talks after Opening Day— look no further than the division rival Yankees for recent evidence of that— though it registers as a mild surprise that Eovaldi’s self-imposed deadline has come and gone without much talking at all. Eovaldi is coming off the finest season of his career: a 182-inning showing of 3.75 ERA ball with elite command (4.6% walk rate), Cy Young votes, and a bevy of underlying metrics that indicate his performance was even better than his ERA lets on. With just one season to go before a healthy payday awaits the righty in free agency, however, it’s possible Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom and the front office didn’t see the cost upside in writing up a new contract now.
Alternatively, the Red Sox front office may have simply been too preoccupied post-lockout trying to assemble a team with playoff aspirations. Though the club did kick the tires on extensions with franchise players Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts, neither discussion got very far. The front office engaged sophomore pitcher Garrett Whitlock in extension talks, agreeing to an extension this past Sunday, though that’s a value play that was unlikely to be afforded in the veteran Eovaldi’s case. Due to either consistent high-end performance or financial upside it’s easy to see why extension talks were prioritized in all three of these cases over the one with a 32-year-old pitcher.
With Eovaldi all but certain to reach free agency, he’ll join a group teeming with upside (and for the Red Sox, potential replacements). Assuming some opt-outs are exercised and some player options are not, the 2022-23 free agent market stands to contain elite names like Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander, and Clayton Kershaw. With more than $100MM worth of commitments likely headed off the books after the season, the Red Sox should have no shortage of options to explore this offseason, be it by re-upping some familiar faces or by inviting some new ones into the fold.
Eovaldi won’t discuss an extension? Laughable. No disrespect to his 2018 post-season performance, but he’s old now and oft-injured. The Sox should be looking to upgrade, anyway
Well, part of the problem with many of these guys is they are so self-absorbed they can’t view their situations objectively. Nonetheless, as a successful SP he will get a nice offer, just maybe not what he think he could/should a la Judge. Look at Rodon’s offer for a good illustration, although he is younger.
Eventually, smart teams will completely pivot to signing young stars to long-term, and everyone else will be short-term. It’s nearly that way now, & Judge is going to find out the hard way that nobody but his wife wants him until he’s 40.
I’ll go ahead and echo bucsfan’s comment because I was about to say the same thing. WTF is Eovoldi talking about? He’s the paper boy for a player getting overpaid based on one playoff performance (welcome to the fold, Jorge Soler). This guy hasn’t been worth his money. It was a bad contract for any team. Then he has 1 season with an ERA of 3.75 and that’s been his best year but now he’s supposed to be some kind of star because of his underlying metrics? What about the bad years? The injury prone years? Those don’t count anymore because of one season with a 3.75 ERA and better underlying metrics?
My theory:
Both reports were very true. Eovaldi WAS willing to discuss an extension during the season. Then he realized the Red Sox weren’t going to extend him unless he proved himself for at least one more season. They don’t trust him to stay that consistent based on his past. Once he figured that out he changed his tune to make it sound like he’s the one who won’t do it because he knows they won’t anyway. He’s basically saying, “You better pay me a lot of money now because I MIGHT get good. Then you will want me. If I become a good pitcher before you pay me a ton of money it will cost you more.”
Sorry, Nate. The Red Sox aren’t that stupid and they don’t work that way. They have spent 2 of the last 3 years regretting the last contract they gave you. No reason to do it again unless you absolutely ball out this season. Underlying metrics or not, if a pitchers best year is a 3.75 ERA and the worst years are far worse than that… Teams can do a lot better. Eovaldi would be lucky to get an extension offer and it’s no surprise he hasn’t. He has let the fact that he is purely a default #1 starter for a team like Boston get to his head too much. He never should have been given that position in the first place. There just wasn’t anyone else that deserved it more who was healthy. That doesn’t mean Eovaldi is actually anything great. Players of his caliber should never get consideration for extension prior to free agency. They just aren’t worth it. Too much risk and too many players who are way better out there to replace him.
This guy is a #3 starter for teams who won’t win the world series. For teams who actually might win a world series, he’s a #4 starter at best. That’s only if he stays healthy. Why would anyone ever extend a player like that who is injury prone a full season before they have to?
Not to mention that Bloom would simply rather shop in the BBB bin and sign pitchers on low risk -high reward SHORT TERM contracts just like he did in Tampa.
I agree completely. Let’s see what he does this year before signing him.
To present the other side of the coin, he is now with a team with a budget. It looks like he is trying to rebuild from the farm and through trade. THEN we will see if he signs his young talent early. The Whitlock deal was a good first step.
“They have spent 2 of the last 3 years regretting the contract they gave you.”
I don’t agree. Eovaldi pitched great during the shortened 2020 season. While on that subject…Eovaldi (like all other players) lost money during the Pandemic during play stoppage. That 67 million dollar contract was more like 55 million dollars. Irregardless, if you look at Eovaldi’s worth to the Red Sox on Fangraphs, you will see that he has been more than worth the contract that the Sox gave him (2021 alone was worth over 40 million per Fangraphs).
I do agree that the Red Sox are wise to hold back on an extension offer in order to see how things go in 2022 (Eovaldi has a history of injury followed byy long rehab), but let’s not make the mistake of calling that previous extension a mistake because it has worked out (furthermore, the way he exerted himself in 2018 post-season probably also entitled him to some extra cash consideration.. that exertion no doubt played a role in his 2019 injury struggles).
“They are so self-absorbed they can’t view their situations objectively.”
That sounds like a lot of bias from a fan. Maybe there is substance to that perspective, but I suspect not (based on the allusion to Judge). Athletes make money that seems almost infinitely more than most of us make as an annual salary. Is it a self-absorbed perspective to bet on oneself and try to earn as much as possible?
More likely, it’s what most of us would do if we are elite at what we do and have worked very hard to achieve that success in a particular industry.
To add to what Clipper referenced to as far the contract length Judge was seeking. It is likely longer than what most PoBO’s would agree to; but isn’t that part of negotiations? Each side goes further than they think they might actually get. If your first proposal is what you realistically think you might get, you are already undercutting yourself.
*get or agree to*
I think a better way to phrase it is “these guys have immense self belief that clouds their judgment.”
It takes insane confidence to get to this level.
paddy – Thanks for bringing some sanity to the discussion.
Yes, the age-old saying is to always ask for more than what you want.
I challenge anyone to give an example of the last time a player’s agent opened negotiations by saying “This is what we want” and his team’s management responded with “Sure, you’ve got it”.
I don’t know about that. Just ask Baker Mayfield how that self absorbed attitude is working for him
Old? Eovaldi is 32. I agree with most of the rest, but it’s not like he’s some bum. He could have a 5 ERA this year and he’d still likely land a multi-year deal.
Sure but I don’t want the Red Sox to take that risk and I suspect they don’t either. Doesn’t make a ton of sense to invest big money in a player entering his age 33 season with Eovaldi’s injury history which is on the older side for pitchers. He’s a good number 3 starter but will probably expect to be paid above that in years and dollars. Not take to anything from last year and 2018 but I’d rather the Sox targeted a different player
yeah maybe they cn sign Garrett Richards again
He has had injury problems but believes a solid 2022 after 21 will lead to a bigger deal than what the Sox are planning on now offering. They could still privately negotiate but I think his thought process changed after hearing of the Bogie and Devers negotiations. Just my updated take.
Eovaldi has been BY FAR the Sox’s best SP the past 2 years. Not saying he should be re-signed either way but he may the best option of the 3 presented here. Verlander and Kershaw are both on the very end of their careers and Degrom has been hurt often the past few seasons and will command a VERY HEFTY and VERY LENGTHY deal. Not worth the risk. Sox will let Eovaldi walk and Bloom will simply bring in a few more low risk high SP like Richards and Wacha on short term deals.
32 is now considered “old”?
What does that make Kershaw, Verlander, Scherzer, Greinke? Dead?
Three and a half years ago Eovaldi was just two years removed from TJ surgery, and yet during free agency he had massive interest from many teams.
But now, 6 years removed, he’s more of an injury risk? Seriously?
Ageism: The one “ism” that is still acceptable in society today.
It makes them anomalies. You also might want to note the injuries and marginal years that group has racked up. Go look at aging curves for pitchers and get back to us on crying about “ageism”.
Random – So you’re acknowledging that anomalies do, in fact, exist which means a pitcher such as Eovaldi shouldn’t automatically be written off just because he turned 32 two months ago … ESPECIALLY a pitcher who has logged less than 1,200 innings in the majors. Thank you for agreeing it’s idiotic to write off every 32-year-old pitcher just because of his age.
And BTW if you read Baseball Prospectus you’ll find that JC Bradbury has the peak age for players at 29. So Age 32 is not some kind of career death sentence.
Nailed it, fever.
Pipe down, gramps
Vinny – It saddens me when people can’t comprehend supporting a demographic to which they don’t belong.
I recently advocated for African American players, you gonna assume I’m African American too?
Yeah comparing Eovaldi to those guys who are still pitching at a higher level than Eovaldi now…come on Fever
kmm – I never said Eovaldi is as good as those guys were at Age 32, all I’m saying is there’s plenty of evidence to support the fact that pitchers can be highly effective in their early to mid 30’s.
If anybody wants to pick apart Eovaldi’s game, that’s fine. Using his age as an excuse to write him off is absurd.
FPG: What “massive interest” are you talking about? And yes he is an injury risk He’s two years removed from missing half the season due to injury and for that matter the half he did pitch he was terrible
acell – Eovaldi was one of the most sought-after free agents after the 2018 World Series.
boston.cbslocal.com/2018/11/19/nathan-eovaldi-red-…
“There are plenty of suitors lining up for the 28-year-old righty this offseason, with nearly a third of Major League Baseball looking to add Eovaldi to their pitching staff.
That list will likely grow too, as other teams are expected to enter the mix when the Eovaldi sweepstakes really gets going at the start of the winter meetings in three weeks.”
so one local report equals massive interest. Either way he’s still injury prone. Furthermore to your point about pitchers being effective into their late 30s there’s equally if not larger body of evidence to support the contrary. Either way investing big money for what amounts to a number 3 starter at his peak for a guy with his injury history entering his age 33 season is a massive risk. Comparing him to players who were much more accomplished at the same age is making a false equivalency
acell – Your first sentence makes no sense. It’s one of hundreds of articles indicating a large number of teams wanted him, including some to be their closer. I backed up what I wrote, you haven’t provided anything to support your claim that I’m wrong.
And calling him a “Number 3 starter at his peak” after he just had a season in which he was an All-Star, came in 4th for Cy Young, and got MVP votes … all while pitching in the toughest division in MLB, well you’ve made it super clear you’re a hater who is a stranger to reality. So no point wasting any more time here, good day.
Ageism: The one “ism” that is still acceptable in society today.
=====================================
It’s acceptable because we can prove that people get older and break down.
Joe – Of course people get older, if they didn’t they’d be dead.
And are you saying people in their 20’s don’t break down?
You know what’s hysterical about your comment, Eovaldi’s two TJ surgeries were at Age 17 and Age 26. Imagine that, it’s not just “older” players who break down. Guess your algorithm didn’t provide that bit of data to you.
What’s even more hysterical is that you strongly approved of both the Hill and Paxton signings. One is a 42-year-old with a long history of hand blisters and injuries to his shoulder, elbow, knee and forearm.
And the other is just as old as Eovaldi and has a long history of stints on the IL for injuries to his back, knee, forearm and elbow. But you LIKED those signings because they were Bloom’s.
Joe you’ve complained a lot in the past about KD’s hatred of Bloom, but you’ve become a total mirror image of him with your nonsensical defense of everything Bloom does. It’s too bad because you were at least somewhat reasonable a year ago, but now there’s no middle ground with you. Making excuses for Bloom’s lack of interest in retaining Eovaldi (up to now anyway) by saying Eovaldi is too old and therefore automatically injury prone, that’s not a good look my friend.
What’s even more hysterical is that you strongly approved of both the Hill and Paxton signings.
===========================================
I didn’t “strongly approve”. I was alright with both. But the difference is the level of risk. With Hill, we risk $5M. With Paxton, we risk $10M. Eovaldi will cost a lot more than that.
And I am not even arguing against extending him. I’m arguing against the idea that he is a low-risk player.
He’s only 32 and that’s not old unless your one of those people who consider people born in the 90’s old.as for the oft injured.the last time he was on the IL was in 2019
He had only 9 starts in 2020, which projects to 24.3 over a full season. In his entire career, he’s only had two seasons with more than 27 GS,
The potential free agent pitchers list is really not teeming with upside. Kershaw is either signing in LA or Texas. Verlander 90% with Houston. deGrom is injured as often as Eovaldi. Is there a team with money to burn that wants to roll the dice with the injured? Even Kluber was a roll of the dice type and he got hurt in the dice year.
Keep in mind the Red Sox have James Paxton ‘signed’ through 2024 (via 2 team options at $13M a piece). Provided that he recovers from TJS, Paxton @ $13M should be a great value for Boston and he’s an instant replacement for Eovaldi should he depart in free agency.
Also, one of their (3) best pitching prospects should be ready for the major leagues in 2023 as well: Bello, Mata or Groome. Losing Mata to TJS last year really hurt them as he was on track to pitch in the majors in 2022. Hopefully, his nasty stuff returns upon healing from surgery. They also have the enigma, Chris Sale, who can also opt out at the end of this season but it’s highly unlikely he does so. The top 3 in the rotation for next year appears to be Sale, Paxton & Houck with at least one of the youngsters breaking camp with the team. I’m sure they’d like to have Eovaldi back next year but only at the right price. A 3 year, $50M deal is probably as high of an offer they would give him, and it could be closer to $45M. They could tack on a vesting option as well if Nate wants a longer deal, but they are not going to overpay for him. Sox fans love Nate for his toughness and as do his teammates so he’ll be welcomed back with open arms. Eovaldi is pitching the best he ever has in his career so perhaps he’s finally found his recipe for success.
Connor Seabold?
Seabold had a surprisingly good outing the other day in Worcester, but that was the first time he has thrown well since his injury mid-season last year. Remember, when Sale was rehabbing in the minors last season, he saw Seabold pitch and proclaimed him “filthy.” Shortly thereafter, Seabold was injured and has looked awful since then. At the moment, it’s impossible to know what to expect from him.
@dorothy
That’s a lot of ifs. Evoldi sees Devers and Bogaerts and JDM all leaving, and its like rats on a ship. Bloom is about to start his molding of the team to how he wants to move forward. Would you want to stay?
@stymee
Would I want to stay in Boston with a guy like Bloom running things? absolutely.
A team with the capacity to spend money and a GM committed to building a sustainable minor league pipeline of a talent—that sounds pretty damn good to me.
@ jbigz
He may have the capacity to spend, but he doesn’t spend at the top of the market. You may have noticed that. Boston may be going thru a transition period as they wait for that pipeline to become sustainable.
Given his injury history this is a big gamble on his part.
As a baseball fan, this does ad another storyline to the season.
It’s amazing how some commenters get semi-erect when discussing a often injured pitcher with a sub-.500 career record and an ERA above 4.00 who’s managed to find teams to pay him $82m. Un-bucking-felievable.
Settle down Bart. I don’t think anyones getting “semi-erect” in here.
slim,
I said only ‘semi’, but your concern is much appreciated.
See john below.
I can cherrypick too. He was 4th in Cy young voting last year and led the league in FIP.
He’s a solid number 3 starter. Hyperbole works both ways and you are just as guilty as those you criticize
once the MLB starts deciding games on expected runs rather than real runs get back to us. and Rick Porcello won a Cy Young not that long ago and can’t find a job. That’s terribly more cherrypicking. Eovaldi is a pretty good SP, but the injuries and inconsistency are real.
This is what I meant by ‘semi-erect’.
Ownership and Bloom have a plan. No more players are going to retire as Red Sox farm hands that spent their career in Boston. Bogaerts is gone because Story was the $10MM cost of procuring a quality player to precede Mayer at SS. Rather than paying Bogey a fair market value they got Story to take a discount with an opt out so when Mayer is ready Story will be positioned to opt out due to the low pay. Very frugal. Very ownership oriented and non fan friendly of them. Boston fans get to see Bogey walk and after a couple years of Story they will get to see him walk as well.
Eovaldi walks at year end but shouldn’t based on performance He’s performed to a level that will cost the Red Sox much more per year so it’s not likely they will spend the additional money.
The future is bleak because fans need to be ready for a new open door policy with this ownership group. It mimics what happens in Tampa Bay. A player comes in to the farm system then graduates, plays the six years and if good enough gets a medium range extension through no more than age 35 and then he plays elsewhere for the remainder of his career.
If the players are the product in the baseball industry, it will be hard to maintain fan loyalty with an ever changing product. There is a reason nobody shows up for Rays games. Everyone needs a score card to identify the home players. Franco may end up setting a record for most years playing for TB. Now Boston has chosen to do a similar approach that prevents farm system players form graduating to the majors and playing their whole career in one place if they are the stars you hope for.
I can’t remember a time in Boston Red Sox history when being a fan meant watching the organization do business rather than joining Red Sox Nation to feel like a family of baseball lovers enjoying their home grown players. With such high prices and a new transient player pool I think it will be very challenging to maintain levels of brand loyalty that have existed for over a century.
Boy I hope this ownership group sells the Red Sox soon. Take the massive profits from the escalated value and sell the team to someone who knows what the world loyalty means. When Bogey departs after this season, the two best farm system players in the last 20 years will be gone. These are the very guys we all hope will retire a Red Sox. These are the guys we follow through multiple levels of the farm system. These are they guys we watch break in with the club and eventually carry the team to a championship. Jettisoned from the organization so profits can be maximized.
If you don’t think baseball is a business, watch Bogey follow Mookie out the door for no reason other than a few more coins in the owner’s pocket.
I can’t believe I’m saying this. Nicely put KD. It’s not the length of the games that will ruin MLB it’s exactly what you pointed out that will.
Lonborg, Scott, Andrews, Foy, Smith, Fisk, Burleson, Lynn, Cooper, Oglivie, Gedman, Tudor, Ojeida, Hurst, etc. etc. etc.
Nothing new here.
I hafta admit, I’m surprised Geddy is a Sox HOF’er. He’s not worthy IMO.
@KD17
Bogaerts is only slightly below market value for a SS, which will be his market as a 2B or 3B option for teams in FA.
If you can’t play D, you are not a SS.
stymeedone – We obviously use different measuring sticks for defense.
The factual stats say conclusively that Bogaerts is an above league average defender. All balls hit to a fielder have a binary result of success or failure. The success rate of Bogaerts is 3rd among elite SSs and above league average according to Baseball Reference..
The flawed modern metrics suggest he isn’t above league average BUT dig into the formula and you will find there are huge flaws in their calculations. I’ll only address one here to keep it short.
Put an over aggressive player with very poor baseball acumen next to a star player who plays behind and to the left of him and you have opened a bias that gets reflected in the modern defensive metrics.
How does an over aggressive 3B impact a SS? By cutting off plays that would routinely be handled by the shortstop. Starting 10 to 20 feet behind the 3B the shortstop has traditionally been subject to the aggressiveness of the 3B. If the 3B has the range and skills of an Arenado (like Story had) then balls that are hit to his left are fielded and end in outs. Also, Arenado has the knowledge of the game to decide when he should and when he shouldn’t try to cut off a ball heading to the shortstop. Devers has no filter because he has no baseball acumen and his people have obviously told him that he can fool the new metrics by being overly aggressive therefore reducing his ineptitude on their measuring scale. Yes overly aggressive play is highly rewarded regardless of the success of the player..
So, how does this work? By going after balls that are clearly Bogie’s Devers is able to build his range portion of the defensive metric. The resulting impact on Bogaerts is a reduced range despite him being in position to handle far more range to his right, he doesn’t get the opportunities. That negatively impacts Bogey’s range without ever taking into account that he COULD have gotten to balls but Devers hogged the opportunity to improve his metrics.
There is a domino effect to Devers behavior. Put a runner on 3B and the ball Devers cuts off that he has no business cutting off changes who gets the Run Saved. Rather than Bogey getting a chance at the run saved, it could go to Devers or be lost when Devers contacts the ball but doesn’t make the play and no error is assessed.
Go through all the negative defensive metrics provided by statcast with regard to Bogey and you will find it’s a result of Devers and not within the scope of what Bogey can control To me, that’s a fatal flaw in the metric not in Bogey.
I TRULY BELIEVE, someone or something, probably foreign, is deliberately trying to ruin baseball, because it is American.
Crosby, Sinatra, Elvis, The Beatles, the Stones, Justin Bieber – all marketed their products to the kids , not middle aged men. That’s how they had life long careers.
How do you feel about all the ED commercials on MLBTV? Says to the youth, hey got ED? This is the game for you.
Nothing says, this is boring, I hope its over soon MORE THAN A GHOST RUNNER on second.
Have you read any baseball articles on MS news lately? They’ve got an agenda. And it is an anti-baseball agenda!
Every article is about racism or bad business or about how boring baseball is.
Wake up Americans! Our country is under attack!
Manfred is huge part of the problem.
Laugh react
yeah, where is the eye roll reaction when you need it. sheesh.
So I’m guessing the MLB Network reception is okay in @The Saber-tooth’s bunker?
Nobody showing up for the Rays has little to nothing to do with player turnover.
The cubs have basically an entirely new team this year and there’s still assses in the stands.
Then tell us, what changed with the Rays? Why has their attendance and ratings dropped so much despite quite a bit of success over the past few years?
Cubs are different because Wrigley itself is a major draw, certainly can’t say anybody attends Rays games because of The Trop.
Wait until he gets hurt in June. Look for the “Eovaldi says he’s ‘Open to extension talks with Sox’ article.
Never understood the “won’t talk during a season strategy”…. Get ur money
I mean, guy has $80mm in the bank. He can afford to gamble. Worst case he has a career ending injury. More likely, if he has a down year he gets another $30 mm or so. If this year goes well, he might be in line for another $70 mm. Sure, there’s a huge difference between $30mm and $70mm, but he’s not going broke on this bet no matter how the dice roll.
Yes, I agree get your $ now. What happens if you get seriously injured during the season? When Eovaldi is pitching his best, there’s no reason why he can’t be a #2 or a #3 in any rotation.
At most he’d be worth a 1 year extension at the qualifying offer level or somewhere around there. Like others said, he had one really good post season in 2018 and one good post season appearance in 2021 and outside of that he’s been quite average.
I honestly think this stems from his appearances against the Yankees. Eovaldi has pitched either very well or phenomenally against the Yankees, for whatever reason- maybe bitterness fueling him in those starts- and he seems to think that represents who he is in general as a pitcher and it does not.
So you take like 90 total innings of really phenomenal pitching against over 1,200 innings of league average to below average pitching and….
Lets say in those 90 innings he was worth the pro-rated portion of $32M per season and in those other 1,200 innings he’s been worth around $9.74M per season at best…. etc.
Basically he’s being paid exactly what he’s worth overall.
When he’s bad or his average self, he’s worth about $8-14M a season and when he’s phenomenal, he’s worth $30-35M a season, but only for about 5 games and 32.2 innings total out of an average of 185 innings per season, or about 201.1 innings per season if you include the post season.
His post season performances are worth about $2.6M a year overall and his regular season performances are worth about $9M a year overall.
If I was paying him exactly what he’s worth, I’d offer him $11.6M a season, maybe I’d be generous and bump it up to $12.5M a season and maybe I’d give him that extra veteran “thank you for what you did that one time years ago” extra money and bump that up to… $17M a season.
He’s already overpaid for what he brings in the regular season and he’s already paid very fairly for what he brings in the post season.
I’d give him a slight pay bump due to inflation (not actual real inflation, just general basic in-game inflation) and offer him 2 years/$38.5M, giving him a 6 year/$106.5M overall deal with the Red Sox and have a team option for 1 year/$26.5M that could take it up to 3 years/$65M or 7 years/$133M or $19M AAV- which, if he’s as good as he thinks he is, the Red Sox will exercise or it will vest or whatever and he gets the equivalent of a 3 year/$65M deal, which would be a very fair price point.
Anything more than that would be insane.
You forgot the Salary Adjustment Factor for beating the Yankees in your calculation. Also known as the Nipper Number, for those who remember 1986. Speaking of Nipper, never mind, your numbers are probably fine.
How did he do in the wild card game? Massively outpitched Foreign Substance Man who makes a bizillion dollars. He had the Astros down 3-1 as well until the ump handed them back the game. So there’s that. Yes, he’s limited innings wise, but I think he’s over the injuries. At some point, it’s no longer an issue. Then it just becomes how much longer he can remain effective. I want this guy on my team, but we’ll see if it makes sense.
This is just another sign that last year was a ‘happy accident’. My suspicion is the Red Sox are trying to get back to the 2007 team formula. Rebuild the farm to where it delivers talent and trade assets to the big club. Then sign your young nucleus players and don’t get tied to overpaying. They competed last year when they shouldn’t have. The rotation and pen was patchwork at best.
I think we are seeing the Red Sox in a tough spot. Do they tie up Devers, Bogaerts and Eovaldi at big contracts for long term? Devers is young, so there is an argument there. Do they want to tie Bogaerts to a 6 – 10 year contract, knowing the last half of the contract will be an overpayment and most likely he isn’t a SS in 2 to 3 years? Eovaldi is a good #3/passable #2 but he is 32, injury risk and only has pitched over 180 innings twice.
The Whitlock signing and Renfroe trade is really the direction they are going in. Adding young talent and rebuild the foundation of the team.
I would not be shocked to see all three walk or in Devers case, traded, with an aim to compete in 2024.
All this talk of extensions brings to mind when the MLB network guys were asking DD if he was going to re-sign Nate, A HALF FLIPPING HOUR AFTER THE SOX WON THE SERIES!!!! His response, something like “C’mon guys, it took me a long time to get back here; can I get a DAY??????”
Enough about extensions already. MOST are silly” “Is he (fill in the blank) worth it?” PROBABLY NOT; very few are.
Just watch some baseball this weekend. Let the accountants figure out the rest of the stuff.
And while I’m ranting, PLEASE: Extensions don’t mean the player is on a team for x number of years. The Bucs can trade Kebryan TODAY, with all those 8 years of control. And I know most people realize this; but teams keep saying it anyway.
Bob, the accountants are SWAMPED today!
Just saying. 😉
They are all grateful for Emancipation Day!
For those not paying attention, the Sox’ personnel decisions are occurring exactly as BB operated the Patriots for the last 20+ years…
I never paid any attention to the Patriots. So I have no idea what’s going on. Even though I have been paying attention to the Red Sox. But I also wasn’t paying attention in Language Arts class as well, either.
If the Red Sox are unwilling to pony up the money to resign Eovaldi then there is no way they get near Kershaw, Verlander, or deGrom.
Different quality of pitcher between that group and Eovaldi…but agreed they certainly won’t. The Price and Sale contracts I think have scared them off on big pitching contracts.
Eovaldi has just had four years at $17MM each, so he will want a raise. I expect his connections will be asking for 6/120 or 130. When I saw E-Rod leave with barely a wave goodbye from the Sox FO last year, I felt like I was seeing what Eovaldi’s departure would look like after this season. The Sox are not going to pay Eovaldi $20MM a year. Assuming that the MLBPA does not accept an international draft this July, the QO will be in place and the Sox will happily hang one on Eovaldi (and JDM and Bogaerts if he opts out).
I would have thought Eovaldi would want to sign ASAP….maybe checking in with his teammate Matt Barnes might be a good reality check….Barnes would not have got anywhere close to that extension had he not signed in-season.
Good point about Barnes.
& the guy above said the RS have no loyalty.
Loyalty sinks ships. The Astros just let Carlos Correa take a hike and replaced him with Jeremy Peña. Smart teams know value.
jb – Correa took a hike because he’s very egotistical and was asking for a lot more than what he’s worth. We are talking about a guy with a .809 OPS since his tainted 2017 season (compare that to Xander’s .890 OPS over the same time period).
Correa can point to his imaginary watch all he wants, it’s not his time for a $300M+ contract.
Let him walk, focus on Xander and Devers
Don’t worry man, keep letting up dingers and they won’t even discuss it in the offseason either.
It’s a gamble on Eovaldi’s part but its also a distraction and it’s understandable he doesn’t want to deal with it during the season and constantly be asked about it til it’s resolved
They had plenty of time to talk with him prior to the start of the season, and apparently they didn’t. If a team really wants to keep a player, they will move quickly on trying to keep him. Unless the player has questionable health, which he doesn’t.
Same thing with Xander, his asking price went up because of the contracts that were given over the offseason. So either Bloom was an idiot for waiting until after all the other free agent shortstops signed, or he simply had no intention of making a serious attempt to extend Xander.
By that standard, then Judge and Stanton don’t have questionable health either.
FPG – So here is my take. The Red Sox need to bridge from now until Mayer arrives in the majors. To bridge the time Bloom could take Bogey’s $20MM and bump it by $10MM to be a fair value market price OR he could go after Story and sell him on a contact that is back-end loaded with an opt out when Bloom thinks Mayer will be in the majors. That way, he doesn’t have to pay the Bogey mark=up in 2023 and he might get a draft pick out of it AND he pays roughly what he’s paying Bogey for a comparable all-star quality player until Mayer is ready. Expect Story to opt out in 2025 because the higher priced years ahead will still be below market value at that time. Financially, the plan is very frugal and saves the owners a bunch of money. On the other hand, this move like the Mookie move may create more profits for the owners but it stings the fan base. The owners clearly are willing to take that risk because the noise level is low thanks to the way they hired people to squash the backlash over Mookie.using the new media culture and influencers.
Bogey is gone and it’s not clear if he knows it or not but I think he does. Since he and Devers are close and Devers ego will demand pay comparable to a player that can actually field, I see Bloom needing to trade Devers before season’s end UNLESS there is a chance at a playoff run. If Boston is failing at the trade deadline, Bloom will have a chance to cash in on Devers and get something in return. What he gets better be more than Verdugo, Downs and Wong!!!
KD – Great post, I agree with much of what you said. There’s no doubt in my mind if the Sox are realistically out of contention by the trade deadline, there will be a fire sale. Xander, Hernandez, Hill, Plawecki, Wacha, Vazquez, Eovaldi, JD, JBJ and multiple relievers would all be made available. I still think Devers will be kept until next offseason, and then either traded or extended.
Story opting out would depend on his performance up to that point. I’m still skeptical about his ability to hit outside of Coors, and I would need reassurance that his arm injury is fully healed.
Chaim has a budget. Guessing that they may be willing to exceed the CBT this year for purposes of acquiring pieces at or near the trade deadline.They could then duck back under it next season. Considering that Eovaldi, Bogarets, and Devers are under contract at present, and cannot negotiate with other teams, the signing extension sense of urgency is moot. If this team doesn’t meet expectations before the deadline, these and others could be moved to bolster 23 and beyond. Why handcuff oneself early on? Lets see what is going to play out and adjust as necessity dictates. At seasons end, if it’s prudent to bring these guys back, as well as add free agents, they will at least have a better handle on costs moving into the future.
The urgency is also moot since we can outbid everyone but the Yankees and Dodgers. If Eovaldi is theoretically a $66M/3 player, then we can pay that $66M next offseason. The only reason to pay him now is if he offers us a discount.
Bobby smac9 – When you say “bolster 23 and beyond” don’t you really mean that ANYTHING Bloom might get for these all-stars will be years from providing comparable value to the MLB team immediately?
Nobody trades a Devers at the deadline to get back an Arenado or another player that would help much in 2023, they give prospects and maybe a mediocre player since we hoard those.
Do you remember Bloom preaching “sustained success”? Well, 2022 is his opportunity to push what was thought to be immediate sustained success even farther into the future!!! Yep and he’ll sell the concept as if it was somehow good for the organization!!
As a old fan, I’m not too keen on pushing things into the future continuously like we have for nearly 3 years. We had a team in it’s prime that could have won in 2021 and 2022 with Mookie, Price, Benny and Chavis rather than “the replacements” (what an appropriate name for Bloom’s guys based on the movie of the same name!). Now, nearly 3 years later no success and certainly no sustained success just more promises and the opportunity to watch Bloom rid himself of the last DD’s all-stars.
You suggest in your comments that we need to watch this play out and adjust as necessity dictates. Do you have concrete evidence that Bloom is being fired? If not, then that’s not going to happen. Bloom has nearly $220MM to throw away on mediocre players like he has since he started!! At least he can’t blame DD for his lack of success after this year. Especially, if Sale opts out to get away from Cora.
Just sit for a minute and digest the fact that the 2023 Red Sox likely will be without Benny, Betts, Devers, Bogaerts, Chavis, JD, Vazquez, Price, Eovaldi and Holt (one of my favorite for the clubhouse) but they will have JBJ and Barnes!!
Does that sound like a successful 3 years? NOT TO ME!!!
Bloom should set the future NOW by moving Devers for a young, fast lead-off hitting center fielder. He should trade JD for a young 3B who can field so when Story takes over SS next year after Bogey opts out the left side can finally play defense. If he wants to maximize trade value for Bogey he should trade him now as well so the other team gets 4 months of him rather than a little over 2 months. Remember, trading Bogey means giving the other team and opportunity to do something bright like LAD did with Mookie. They can pay him fair market value and he won’t opt out. He’s a top 5 SS and is grossly under paid right now.
Chaim does have a budget and he’s spent every dollar of it on mediocre players other than Story. He’s going to have a truck load of money in 2023 and he could end up with a truck load of mediocre talent. This the most risk the Red Sox organization has had since they brought in Theo as GM!! Bloom could screw the organization for years with continued bad choices with all the new available money. He could also finally figure things out and use the money wisely. Where do you think the betting money is on that question? hahaha Yep!! Boston could be in an even bigger hole than the one he created with the Mookie deal. That truly is scary!!
everyone in this comment section just doesn’t watch Nate pitch every week. He’s the best starter on the Red Sox, whether you like it or not.
that’s damning with faint praise as someone who has watched him start every week. It’s more a product of how inconsistent the rest of the staff is vs how good Eovalid is…