Free agent outfielder Michael Conforto “is on [the Rockies’] list of possible free agents,” The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders hears from sources inside the Rox organization. Conforto joins Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber as prominent outfield-capable names Colorado has been linked to since the start of the offseason, as the Rockies were known to be looking for some more pop in the lineup.
The 2015-20 version of Conforto would certainly fit that description, as the former All-Star hit .259/.358/.484 with 118 homers over that six-season run with the Mets. Last year, however, Conforto was far less effective at the plate, hitting a modest .232/.344/.384 with 14 homers over 479 PA while also missing about five weeks of action due to a strained hamstring.
Apart from a dropoff in barrels and barrel rate, there wasn’t much difference in Conforto’s 2021 season from his 2015-20 seasons, from a Statcast perspective. His .322 wOBA was much lower than his above-average .350 xwOBA, so Conforto might have simply had a hard-luck season at the worst possible time as he was about to enter the free agent market.
A move to a more hitter-friendly ballpark like Coors Field might spark a revival in Conforto’s numbers, though it remains to be seen exactly what his down year will cost him on the open market. Saunders suggests that the Rockies would be open to inking Conforto to three or four years, yet it isn’t clear whether or not Conforto would necessarily want that type of longer commitment (at what would surely be less than top dollar) if he views 2021 as an aberration. MLBTR projected that Conforto would take just a one-year pillow contract in order to re-establish himself and then test free agency again next winter, and Saunders writes that some executives around baseball feel the outfielder might indeed take this path.
The other wrinkle involved in this scenario is the draft pick compensation attached to Conforto, since he rejected the Mets’ qualifying offer. If Conforto is only looking for a one-year deal, some teams may not be willing to give up a pick just for one season of his services — especially since the 2022 season now may be shortened due to the lockout. While Conforto’s former teammate Noah Syndergaard landed a one-year deal from the Angels despite also rejecting a QO, it can argued that Syndergaard’s scenario was different in many respects.
Syndergaard is coming off essentially two lost seasons due to Tommy John surgery and wasn’t in great position for a longer-term deal, and an Angels team desperate for pitching felt giving up the pick was a risk worth taking if Syndergaard can help them finally end their playoff drought. While the Rockies seemingly always think they’re closer to contention than they actually are, the club still faces a lot of competition within the NL West alone, to say nothing of the rest of the National League (even if more postseason spots are available).
Signing Conforto to a one-year deal and surrendering a draft pick in order to make a push in 2022 alone doesn’t seem too realistic, though the Rox might also feel they have something of a bonus pick to work with since Trevor Story is also a QO free agent. Since the Rockies are a team that receives revenue-sharing funds, their compensatory pick for Story would fall just after the draft’s first round, assuming Story signed for more than $50MM. Signing a QO free agent would cost Colorado its third-highest pick of the draft, for comparison’s sake.
The Rockies have plenty of room for Conforto in their outfield, as he could slot into either corner spot and even play center field in a pinch (though not on a consistent basis). An already-inconsistent Colorado lineup will now be losing Story, and the outfield has been seen as a natural spot to add a big bat to the mix. Charlie Blackmon will continue to get some time in right field, but could also get some DH time to accommodate Conforto if he is moved between both corner spots.
Over a dozen teams had some initial interest in Conforto at the start of the offseason, though only the Marlins and now the Rockies are the only known teams linked to the 29-year-old. It isn’t clear whether or not Miami could still be in the running, as the Fish already signed Avisail Garcia, and recent reports (and the sudden departure of Derek Jeter from the organization) have hinted that the club might not be willing to spend much more in the wake of the lockout.
To do what? The owner of the Rockies is one of the main guys who’s destroying baseball.
How do other than overpaying for players they absolutely don’t need especially when the player has a draft pick attached to him. And yes he’ll obviously still will have a draft pick attached to him after the new cba is signed because it will be stupid for all the players who signed prior with a pick attached and then change the rule half way thru the offseason.
Another left handed hitting OF…. Exactly what they need and at the cost of a draft pick and salary space they don’t have. Genius idea in Colorado….again.
Someone giving a job opportunity for a person to play a game, while paying well above cost of living, is destroying baseball? Okay. I guess sometimes it really is that simple.
No one is stopping these players from playing elsewhere. Your blaming one man, for another man’s choice.
DO NOT EVER sign a former Met. They will bring the Queens curse with them.
Conforto is a good bounce-back candidate even without a Coors lift. I suspect he’ll get offer elsewhere.
The Rockies just have no idea what they are doing.
I like the fit. Conforto would become an annual 30 HR player in Coors.
Any above average player would be for far less than 20 mil conforto thinks he’s worth. 30 hrs isn’t as valuable as it used to be because there’s like 100 guys able to hit 30 depending on what baseball mlb wants to use.
I don’t know how these Conforto articles keep coming out with no mention of his defense.
He went from a guy who was okay in cf in 2019 to a lower tier defender in rf in 2021.
This was my thought when I got to the part talking about how he can cover CF part time…I’m not sure I’d want to see that in Coors’ huge OF.
Hope the Rockies enjoy having the least clutch player in the whole National League on their roster. Most of his homeruns are hit when the Mets were up or down by 8 runs. If you ever need a hit when you have a guy on second he strikes out
Newsflash; Conforto, along with his greedy fellow players, aren’t playing anywhere this year. It’s for the “good of the game” and it’s because “they have to get this CBA right” according to brainiacs Scherzer & Trout.
Great fit. If conforto stays healthy he could pop off at Coors on a team affordable one year prove it deal and then really cash in
They’ll sign him and the give him away, like Arenado.
*then*