Just over one year ago, the Toronto Blue Jays signed George Springer to a six-year, $150MM contract, the largest deal in franchise history. After that signing, it was speculated by many that a trade could follow, given that they already had three other capable outfielders in Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Teoscar Hernandez and Randal Grichuk. Instead, they ended up hanging onto all four players, which may have been the wise choice, as Springer spent significant time on the IL, appearing in just 78 games and only playing center field in 40 of those.
In his absence, center field was largely manned by Grichuk, who spent parts of 96 games there, including 87 starts. Unfortunately, he had arguably the worst season of his career. He’s never been an on-base guy, with a 6.3% walk rate back in 2015 marking his career high. But he slipped even lower in 2021, landing at 5.0%, his lowest since his debut season in 2014. On the positive side, he dropped his strikeout rate to 20.9%, a career best. He also still showed some power by hitting 22 home runs. His center field defense was passable, being rated as just below average by all three of DRS, UZR and OAA. But in the end, his line for the season was .241/.281/.423. His wRC+ of 85 was five points lower than his previous career low, and his 0.4 fWAR was his lowest since his 47-game debut in 2014.
Back in early December, it was reported that the Blue Jays and Brewers had discussions on a trade centered around Grichuk and Jackie Bradley Jr., before the Brewers and Red Sox agreed to a deal with a framework of Bradley and Hunter Renfroe. This suggests the Jays have at least some openness to moving on from the two years and $20.67MM remaining on the extension they inked with Grichuk in April of 2019.
Trading Grichuk now is awkward for a couple reasons, even beyond the lockout. His value is surely at a low ebb, given the disappointing season he just had in 2021. There’s also the fact that the club would be lacking in outfield depth without him. Outside of the aforementioned group of Springer, Gurriel and Hernandez, the only other regular outfielder on the 40-man roster is Josh Palacios, who also missed significant time with injury last year and has only played 16 career Triple-A games and 13 MLB games. Cavan Biggio has seen a bit of time in the outfield, but he’s still pencilled in for significant infield time at the moment. He also dealt with injuries last year, appearing in just 79 games. However, the team could also add some outfield depth after a Grichuk trade, perhaps by bringing back Corey Dickerson, who recently spoke highly of his time with the Jays last year.
One thing that could potentially work in the Jays’ favour is the lack of available free agent center fielders, with the best remaining options being bench/platoon types like Brett Gardner or Kevin Pillar. Grichuk’s poor 2021 notwithstanding, center fielders who play cromulent defense and reliably hit 20-plus home runs per season don’t grow on trees. Teams with designs on competing and questions in center field could perhaps take a chance on him, especially considering he isn’t likely to demand much of a return. The Phillies need help in the outfield and elsewhere, but likely don’t have a ton of money or young talent to trade. The Rockies have designs on competing and need outfield upgrades, having been connected to Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber this offseason. If they fail to lure in one of those high profile options, they’ll have to consider alternatives. The Marlins are known to be looking for center field help and don’t usually throw around big bucks in free agency, making them theoretical suitors for a lower-cost option like Grichuk.
Given Grichuk’s contract and mediocre 2021 season, it’s unlikely the Jays are able to line up a trade during what will surely be a frenzy of transactions between the theoretical end of the lockout and the beginning of the season. However, if they can, it would free up some payroll space for them to upgrade their infield and pitching staff, as they look to build off a 91-win campaign in 2021.
Maybe the Jays are the team where Grichuk’s value is at its highest.
We net more Value trading Gurriel, Probably could get something decent for Teo as well. Grichuk can still be the 4th OF in those scenarios if Biggio goes to the OF full time, Espinal taking 2B or 3B (depending on what’s acquired in those hypothetical deals)
Trading Grichuk Probably means another FA expenditure (Bryant or Schwarber)
Trading Gurriel or Teo (plus things) Probably brings in Chapman or SP from Oak/Cin/Col
Trading Gurriel & Teo weakens the team. Trading Grichuk doesn’t. The Jays can bring back Dickerson for cheaper than what they’re paying Grichuk now. Dickerson is also a better fit roster wise as he is a left handed bat & the Jays’ lineup is right handed heavy. I’m not trading Teo at all. I only trade Gurriel if he is part of a package for a star. I’d trade Grichuk for whatever you can get for him.
Dickerson gets hurt a lot and probably shouldn’t be allowed in center field. The value of Grichuk is that any of the 3 other outfielders being out for a long time needn’t kill the team’s chances of contending.
Realistically, as a 4th outfielder Grichuk is going to get 300-400 ABs. Dickerson would only be able to cover maybe 200 of those, less if Springer is the one hurt, and then you’ve got a minor leaguer covering several hundred at bats. That wouldn’t be so bad if they had a prospect, but Palacios is not the answer. And signing another veteran to supplement Dickerson isn’t an option because carrying 5 outfielders until the injuries pile up creates roster construction problems.
Most teams do carry 5 outfielders! It will especially become the norm now that there are 26 man rosters limited to 13 pitchers. Besides, doesn’t Biggio count as the 5th one, anyway?
In any case, it doesn’t have to be Dickerson. The point is that there are plenty of free agent bench outfielders who could fill Grichuk’s role at a fraction of the price, especially if they’re lefties. They probably won’t hit quite as well and/or play lesser defense, but the Blue Jays don’t really need more than that to fill out their bench if they can save money for better use elsewhere on the roster.
I don’t know why they they gave Grichuk such a big extension in the first place, since he’s never been good enough to be a starter on a contending team. He’s either a bench guy on a contender or a starter on a non-contender, and he should’ve paid as such.
They can’t afford to weaken their defence any further. If Springer is injured, who you going to play in Centre if it’s not Grichuk? Gurriel or Hernandez? That a disaster waiting to happen. Both are bad fielders EHO can just about get away with it in a corner. Not centre.
So they sign a left-handed bench player who can play CF. Those guys aren’t that hard to find.
Jays really missed the boat on the grichuk for Bradley swap. Bradley fits the jays roster much better. The really need a everyday LH CF is what they need. Springer has never been and won’t be in the future a everyday CF.
Bradley is one of my favourite players. No way do we want a hole in the eight or nine hole.
Did you look at JBJ numbers from last year? Jays didn’t miss out on anything.
No way, you do not trade Gurriel and Teoscar at this point, not when both of them are coming off some of their best seasons, and are entering their prime, Col does not have any SP’s they want to trade, Castilo, or Gray, or Mahle is not worth those two guys, Why on earth would Oak want two MLB Ready guys that are soon to hit FA, you best bet is keeping the whole outfield and resigning Dickerson.
It’s crazy how often Gurriel in particular gets mentioned as a trade candidate, as though he were some prospect to flip for a right-now piece. He’s 28 years old, he’s in the middle of his prime, a contending team should sit back and enjoy him. Particularly as he plays a position where they have very little depth.
Personally I don’t like the idea of 5 guaranteed contract outfielders to start a season though, because it limits your roster. Let Dickerson go since he’s not really suited to CF or staying healthy.
And an incredibly friendly team deal where they see all their other big name players about to make bank
Ya grichuk is a perfectly decent 4th of’er / back up power bat.
He’s just overpaid.
As the op mentioned, he might be more valuable to the jays off the bench and then as an expiring trade chip next offseason
Except the A’s do not want Teoscar Hernandez. That completely defeats the purpose. If you’re trading Chapman you’re not trying to win this season. Teo is an expensive arb player so there’s no cost savings.
The A’s may want near MLB ready prospects but they definitely don’t want guys 2 years away from FA.
If the Jays are to trade any of Teo or Jr., And would say ; trade it to Cleveland as part of a deal for Ramirez, followed by the signing of Bryant and why not, even Freeman !
1.Springer CF
2.Ramirez 3B
3.Vladimir Jr. 1B-DH
4.Bichette SS
5.Freeman DH-1B
6.Bryant LF-RF
7.Teoscar/Lourdes Jr. LF
8.Moreno C
9.Biggio 2B
That’ll be the only way I’ll see some sense into a Lourdes or Teoscar trade, but certainly not both !
Lmao to4
Now that was a pretty uncromulent analysis.
Jeb
Cromulent defense sounds like a chess strategy.
As Grichuk once said: “A noble spirit embiggens the smallest man.”
If only Altuve had a noble spirit.
Pretty sure that quote from from his ancestor, Jebediah Jedidiah Grichuk.
Not sure why anyone would want to trade for Grichuk. Expensive, passable in center but probably at this stage more a corner OF, terrible on-base pct and not even that impressive power. Everyone’s got a guy or two like that who cost much less. The Phillies do. The Rockies more than do. Why would they grab another one unless the Jays add value to entice them?
The Phillies could play Haseley, Moniak, or Vierling there and possibly get the same production. They don’t seem inclined to do that. So they’re looking for someone. As you rightly point out you don’t need to pay $21 million over 2 years for Grichuk.
If the Phillies could swap Didi (who is actually still owed $23 million due to deferrals) for him then they’d be salary neutral and address a need. And if Grichuk fails they can still go to Haseley, Moniak, or Vierling.
This is the trade that I think makes the most sense and I think the Jays would need to eat half of Grichuk’s salary to pull it off. They could move Didi to 3rd and sign Dickerson to be the 4th outfielder.
You’d want the Jays to take all of Didi’s money and eat half of Grichuk’s? I think the Jays would rather have 2 seasons of Grichuk for $20m than one season of DiDi for $25m.
The Jays would totally take that deal, they need infield depth, It looks like the Phillies are done with Didi, He needs a change of scenery.
I seriously doubt the Jays would even consider this deal. Why would they want to pay Didi $25M to be a depth piece? In that case you just hold onto Grich and hope he has a good season.
@TBJ12
Didi is making ~15 million, not 25.
plus Grichuk’s 10 million (in the above trade scenario)
Ooh… I like that Didi idea!
Toronto gets: Didi and Phillies Prospect (Probably a mlb ready pitcher that Phillies see as a number 5 long term)
Phillies get: Grichuk
@Coast1
Cots has Didi making 14.5 million in ’22. There are deferrals and a signing bonus to consider but it isn’t close to the 23 million you suggest.
He/she’s complaining about the idea that the Blue Jays would have to eat half of Grichuk’s salary to make the trade for Didi.
The Jays would add value by paying salary. They have very often sent the money with the player. The reason a team might want Grichuk is that he’s not a pylon defensively and if you were a team that looked at his numbers in context, you could see an opportunity to get an AJ Pollock type season by playing him in favourable matchups. He goes on hot streaks so there is something there, but he’s not a complete hitter so for him to do well, he needs to be used when the matchups are right. He hits lefties so there’s a simple platoon/bench bat type role. He also hits sinker heavy approaches more so than the 4 seam approach. The problem with his Toronto context is that good matchups for him were also good matchups for the other outfielders. He doesn’t do much differently than them.
A contract swap like the JBJ framework where Toronto takes on more salary this year but is out from it after this year makes sense as ’23 is the year where Toronto might look for more flexibility. Or they pay all of his ’22 salary to a team that needs to find budget room this year and has some salary relief on the way to cover his ’23 salary.
Yeah if he costs a few million then sign me up. Good 4th OF who can play center and has some power.
Favour is not in favor in the states.
But he was talking about the Jays, eh, and used their language.
Bigger question is the use of “cromulent.” Had to look that one up and I think I have a good vocabulary. It means “adequate.”
I thought it was another French morning snack roll thingy
For the Love of the Game – I too had to look up “cromulent” even though I have a good vocabulary. I expected it to be a Simpsons-esque word akin to “craptacular” but was surprised to learn it is a genuine word. I guess it’s true you learn something new every day.
It became a genuine word after being coined by Simpsons writer.
Grichuk has never quite lived up to what I thought he would become as a player? If he’d sharpen his hit tool and pitch recognition, I wonder what that would do for him? He’s obviously very strong generating 20 plus homeruns and slugging around .430-.500, while also striking out 130-160 times in a season? And not walking much? He will give you plus to average defense, with some speed? I’d think the right teams might have interest especially if the Blue Jays are willing to eat a small percentage of his salary?
To be fair, you guys had a pretty crowded infield during his time in SL, he averaged 101 games a season with SL. He did not get too much playing time to delevop.
His power comes from bat speed but it’s in and out of the zone quick so it’s definitely a power over hit approach. But he tried as you said to improve the hit tool this year and he did add a little bit more contact but at the expense of quality of contact. He was on a radio show/podcast recently and suggested the team was asking that of him and he didn’t feel that was his identity. He’s happy to be a 30 HR guy with high strikeouts it would seem. Ultimately, it seems like you can change the numbers in one area but it all adds up to the same thing. The pitch recognition part would be where an outbreak of sorts would come from. If he leaned into the power over hit approach but could lay off and get his pitch to hit or take his walks, the profile would be intriguing. I’m not sure he’s suddenly going to start seeing the ball better at this stage of his career though.
At some point every year, Grichuk suddenly learns plate discipline and has a great month. Everyone talks about how he’s a changed player and going to be a superstar. Then he forgets it and goes back to normal.
So you’re hoping his pulls off a similar breakout to Tyler O’Neill did this past season, only not as fast and average CF defense instead of Gold Glove LF defense? Grichuk’s been around long enough that such sudden development is highly unlikely at this point.
Perfectly capable OF option on a non competing team, or a solid 4OFer off the bench. But if you’re in a tough division, competing for a playoff spot… you probably don’t want him in the lineup. CFer is a premium position and he in no way brings that.
But, as a fourth OFer even large-market competitive teams are going to be hesitant because of costs now.
yep, don’t disagree at all
The Jays have made a lot of good moves but I couldn’t understand 50 million to Grichuk from day 1.
At the time their outfield was awful, like one of the worst in the league. It wasn’t known yet whether Teo, or Gurriel would be good players, they had alot of money to go around, he was a good power bat on a team that needed one.
On a rebuilding team before he was a hitting free agency no less. It was and is a head scratcher.
It was a bet on talent above evidence. Grichuk was supposed to be a star, first round draft pick, showed all the tools, and put together tantalizing hot streaks. It would’ve been a fantastic bargain if he’d lived up to his abilities.
True, but you generally don’t want to bet that kind of money on mere potential.
Besides, the Cardinals had already given up on him after giving him multiple opportunities to develop that potential, so it wasn’t that likely that the Blue Jays were suddenly going to pull it off.
Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion say hi.
Grichuk was 27 and coming off a 117 OPS+ season. If he’d merely maintained that, it would’ve been a solid value deal. If he’d fulfilled his potential it would’ve been a steal.
Bautista and Encarnacion didn’t get paid well until after they broke out.
That was one of Grichuk’s better years up to that point (with a 95 OPS+ the year before), and he still would’ve been somewhat overpaid even if he had maintained that.
So I guess I am not as educated as some. Thank you for educating me on cromulent. I would have been so disappointed if you used acceptable or adequate.
If it is at the Simpson family level I am sure you can get it. LOL.
The biggest issue here is the writer’s use of “cromulent”. From the Simpsons to MLBTR this exciting neologism is much more than cromulent!
Traded for didi gregorius (probably spelled wrong) would make a lot of sense from the jays end…5th infielder that hits left, has been there before, and gets them freed up from 2023 $ considerations
Then supplement with outfielders via free agency.
Ideally they’re getting an impact third baseman and starting pitcher Before the season gets going, and that’s not coming from free agency at this point, so you’d have to expect one of the outfielders to go, with Gurriel Junior having more value I’m sure for Cleveland and Oakland than Hernandez given their contract status
I guess the real question is how many games can Freddie Freeman play in left field?
The Jays still need a CF, preferably a LH hitting CF and a 3B.
Other than their cromulent IF Santiago Espinal, the Jays are trying out all their available MiLB switch hitters at 3B. That. may have been fueling the trade rumors for Jose Ramirez to move from CLE to TOR. I think the Jays could end up with Adalberto Mondesi and Carlos Santana from KCR for Randall Grichuk and some.
Springer is heading into the Hosmer dive.
Springer is a better hitter than Hosmer ever was. He might not be healthy, but on basic hitting ability, a big difference. OPS+of 132 over eight seasons. 30BWAR in 3900 PA. Compare that with Hosmer OPS+ of 108, 18.1 BWAR in 5875 PA.
Lmaooo Hosmer is not even close to being as good as Springer is. A fully healthy Hosmer is not even as good as a half a season of springer.
If the Jays trade Grichuk and sign a 4th OF type, it needs to be someone who can play CF. That rules out Dickerson who is only cromulent in LF and DH. Maybe the Rockies could send back Sam Hilliard or Raimel Tapia as part of a trade.
They used Dickerson in CF last year. Not ideal, but other than Fenway, AL east parks aren’t that tricky to play CF. They have Mallex Smith on a minor league contract who could be the Dyson like 5th OF or they have another power over hit super speedy CF option in Samad Taylor if he makes it through the Rule 5. Those guys probably wouldn’t fill in for a lengthy period as everyday guys, but could be defensive replacements. I personally don’t mind Teoscar in CF the odd day.
From the years I watched him with the Rockies, Dickerson has enough speed to play CF and is passable at chasing fly balls. But he has the worst OF arm I’ve seen since Johnny Damon, and teams generally prefer a decent arm in CF.
I was about to hit the author with a faux incredulous “favoUr?! favoUr!?We speak English here, American style, it’s called favor!” Then I saw the word “cromulent” in the very next sentence and just sat back and applauded quietly.
Grichuk is not good enough to net anything of value. He’s most valuable staying on the Jays
A good example of a low results performer who expects to have a job. Guys like him had a good run, made big money but it’s time to step off gracefully.
Grichuck isn’t that bad. He isn’t an all-star and he’s overpaid, but he’s a career above average hitter who plays capable defense in the outfield and gives 20+ HRS a year. You’re making it sound like he’s Chris Davis.
No one is Chris Davis but he is a sub optimal option who only makes sense if he is cheap. There is no meaningful upside that cannot be provided by a hundred or more other sub optimal options.
Grichuk isn’t consistently an above average or even average hitter because his approach leads to high variance outcomes. If he’s not making a lot of hard contact he’s useless.
Trading for Didi is moronic. Grichuk can be amazing at the plate for a month and then go into the tank for three months. That is the way. He is a spare part and nothing more.
Grichuk has no value on the trade market no matter how much salary is retained by the Jays. He’s at best a 4th outfielder for anyone. He is very inconsistent to say the least.
He’s probably the worst contract the jays have made since Vernon Wells. Wells could play at least though. Grichuk has basically been untradeable through his tenure and I don’t see that changing anytime soon without a decent prospect attached along with him.
It still amazes me how he got that contract. He never performed in Toronto and prior to that the Cardinals demoted him to their 4th OF. He should’ve been a minimum salary or slightly more player. He’s a fringe MLB player at best.
I wouldn’t say a fringe player. He’s good enough to be worth a few $M a year as either a bench player or a starter on a non-contender.
However, yes, that contract never made sense.
Grichuk had 81 RBI in 2021. No fourth outfielder does that.
@terrymesmer
If you’re hanging your hat on RBI’s having some sort of value, let’s see what gravity does to it.
Grichuk isnt a CF. Expanding his defense in CF over the past 2 seasons (1135 innings or about a full season) he put up a -10 DRS/-6.2 UZR. He’s a cromulent corner with the glove masquerading as CF.
The Jays need a real 4th OF. Someone that can play CF at an above average clip.
Now that Castreau has enacted the emergency powers act, I am willing to move on. Maybe Tampa
Ok, Clearly when It comes down to it,, As most agree, and call out here,, for all the many good reasons provided and secured by the fact that the team already tried to trade already for Bradley Jr., Grischuk is the logical choice to move if possible. vs. the other 3 OF options. This sure seems like a no brainer to me as well!
Hard to believe that they only signed him to that $10mm deal just a year ago now I read recently. Crazy how fast all can change.
I read yesterday the Rays will entertain offers for Meadows who could be a nice fit and for a longer look as well. He is only 26, bats Left, hit 26 HR’s last year, and is under control for 3 more years. So, he maybe a better value, or maybe not as much to part with vs. other older alternatives mentioned. We all agree that there appears to be a trade here yet to come.. I would prefer Meadows, but as always, I would like to hear the cost first. Dickerson would be a cheap pick up and at no prospect cost, But he is also 32 and although clutch, he has not played everyday for a couple of years now already.. I would say go for it! trade Grischck for a Left bat option, and hopefully one that can contribute well.