On February 13th, 2018 the Cubs officially announced a six-year, $126MM agreement with free agent Yu Darvish. After splitting the 2017 season between the Rangers and Dodgers, Darvish was the top free agent on MLBTR’s list of available players that winter. Little did we know at the time that Darvish would spent only half the length of that contract in a Cubs uniform.
At the time, Darvish seemed like a much-needed injection of frontline rotation talent for the Cubs. After falling to the Dodgers in the NLCS in their title defense season, swiping Darvish from the Dodgers had the potential to swing a potential rematch in seasons to come.
That rematch wouldn’t come to pass, however. Darvish would make just nine starts for the Cubs in the 2018 season. Though they won 95 games, Joe Maddon’s club stumbled into a wild card spot before losing the wild card game to the Rockies on a Tony Wolters RBI single in the 13th inning.
The timing was never quite right for Darvish and the Cubs. He was better in his second season in Chicago, but not good enough to change the fortunes of their fledgling contender. Darvish finished second for the NL Cy Young during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, but they fell in the first round of the playoffs to the Marlins.
Though Darvish was incredible during that 2020 season (2.01 ERA/2.23 FIP over 76 innings), the Cubs chose to sell high on their one-time free agent prize, sending him to the Padres for a quartet of teenagers. The Cubs were largely criticized at the time of the deal, though the full impact of the move won’t be known for many years yet. There’s no doubt that Chicago needed an injection of youth for a system that had largely stagnated during their years of contention. Further, in terms of maximizing their assets, Darvish was their most valuable trade piece at the time.
And though Darvish’s arsenal is robust, and he’s among the strikeout leaders on a per batter basis year-by-year, his bottom line run prevention numbers don’t necessarily paint him as one of the best pitchers in the league.
He was certainly a touch disappointing in his first season with the Padres, posting just 1.4 rWAR/2.9 fWAR despite making 30 starts and tossing 166 1/3 innings. The 34-year-old wasn’t bad in 2021, but with a 4.22 ERA/3.90 FIP, Darvish looks more like a solid mid-rotation arm than a true frontline ace, even with an impressive 29.2 percent strikeout rate and 6.5 percent walk rate.
The fact is, outside of his tremendous 2020 season, Darvish has been closer to this 2021 self for most of his Major League career – at least since missing the 2015 season. Still, that makes for a valuable rotation arm that ought to play a valuable role for the Padres over the next two seasons, even in his age-35 and age-36 seasons.
At the same time, it’s hard to fault the Cubs now for selling when they did. MLBTR readers did not like the deal, with the most popular grades being a C and D at the time. But in retrospect, the Cubs were clearly more than a Darvish away from competing last season.
On the whole, even though they traded him halfway through the deal, the Cubs probably still feel pretty good about their decision to sign Darvish. On the field, he gave them 294 2/3 innings over three seasons with a 3.60 ERA/3.77 FIP, totaling 5.8 fWAR. Those aggregate numbers are solid, though they came in the shape of one subpar season, one stellar season, and one middle-of-the-road year in 2019.
Taking a more holistic approach, you can give Darvish credit for also netting the organization four prospects who may still provide a boost to Cubs teams down the road. As of right now, Fangraphs has the four prospects the Cubs got for Darvish ranked as their #3, #5, #37, and #48 ranked prospects in their system. Will those four prospects end up being more valuable than the final three years of Darvish’s free agent deal? That’s a question for a future date. In terms of the free agent deal that was signed four years ago today, the move didn’t turn out exactly the way the Cubs perhaps wanted, but they should count it as a win nonetheless.
Curly Was The Smart Stooge
The ebb & flow of baseball, you gotta love it
Deadguy
Your black and white also, from another time I suppose??
I for one certainly do enjoy the ebb and flow of baseball. Darvish signed with a good team, seems like Chicago got two pretty talented players in the deal that sent him to San Diego? Anytime you turn a aging player signed to a huge deal into two top 10 farm hands, you are doing good. Better than just one draft pick?
The Padres certainly needed pitching at the time? But maybe this is the reversal of Shileds for Tatis Jr?
I Like Big Bunts
I remember all those negative comments well. Those who made them will be the same people saying it was a great trade in a few years.
User 4245925809
Just looked over the young kids well and it looks like is going to age well in favor of the Cubs. Granted, all those kids are 18-9 and not past low-A ball at the highest, but it sure looks like a good one for them.
ruckus727
Owen Cassie is the truth
JerryBird
I’d wait until the prospects actually do make a difference in the big leagues before I go patting the Cubs on the back. Too many top prospects don’t make it to the majors at all. They go home and become high school coaches instead. Darvish’s contract was too expensive to end up taking a chance on kids. As of now, nobody has “won” this trade.
JoeBrady
JerryBird4 hours ago
As of now, nobody has “won” this trade.
====================================
Sure, but as of 2/13/22, the Cubs are well ahead.
Deleted Userr
@JoeBrady And considering it was a “win now” move for SD and a “win later” more for Chicago that’s not promising.
fred-3
Yu Darvish has had a strange career
amk1920
The Padres got absolutely destroyed in trading for Darvish. Caissie and Preciado are legit. Darvish is a 4 ERA pitcher without sticky stuff.
VegasSDfan
Darvish is really good. Padres prospects rarely work out, so we got the better end of this trade
Deleted Userr
You mean they rarely work out in San Diego.
amk1920
A 4.22 ERA for two top 100 prospects and two others with decent upside. In what world is that the better end
JoeBrady
so we got the better end of this trade
=============================
Not even close right now,
mike127
Vegas—-Darvish was a rotational piece to help the Padres win a World Series—they didn’t even finish .500 this year. They are nowhere close to getting the better end of the trade. They literally finished 28 games out of first place. 28!!!!!
David Barista
Darvish is solid, but his contract is outrageous…. The Cubs signing was awful, and they were forced to sell low after agreeing to a deal that they never should have… owners should negotiate a 5 yr maximum cap on free agent contracts because the majority of these 6-10yr contracts are poison
SpendNuttinWinNuttin
90% Of the time when a guy signs a say 8 year deal the club is paying really for the first 4-5 years knowing the back end will probably net a loss. The hope is that during the first 4-5 they help bring a title, or revenue by selling jerseys. This one just didn’t pan out
jessaumodesto
Man he’s going to be so good for them! Can’t wait to see him on the mound
Deleted Userr
Wish there was an “old comments exposed” Twitter page for this site or something. Like, a lot of people championed the Hosmer signing for SD or slammed the Cubs for trading Darvish.
Texas Outlaw
I remember that deal well. Why? Cause Xiable wouldn’t shut up for months that he predicted it. I wonder is he us metsfan22.
citizen
I remember this signing of darvish as it was a too little too late moves by the cubs to add to their contending window. Multi year deal when the rest of the group less years left on their contracts. The justin wilson trade was inefective, the scrap heap signings never panned out. Never made the splashy trade needed for this group. Castelanos was the only cub hitting down the stretch at one point when he was on the roster.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
I was hoping that this would be a win-win trade. Have to wait and see.
Weasel 2
Cubs benefitted from the Houston cheating scam. The dodgers decided to move on from him after his failure in the WS. He was seen as damaged goods who was questionable in big games.
All because the Astros cheated but weren’t “caught” until much later even though the rumors had been floating.
jjd002
Wasn’t he legitimately tipping his pitches and then got hit hard in LA in game 7? Being it was a league wide issue, every team knew what they were getting with him.
Cubneck
Actually he wasn’t tipping pitches. The Trashtros were stealing signs during that World Series. I remember him dominating the Cubs in the NLCS.
fred-3
Game 3 (Darvish) and Game 5 (Kershaw), the Astros were definitely stealing signs. Alex Wood and Austin Barnes switched up the signs in Game 4 and the Astros couldn’t hit anything. They asked Kershaw to do the same, but he didn’t want to mess up his routine and the rest is history
ChiSoxCity
That’s Cubs fans—overly optimistic about ALL players throughout their system and big league roster. Those prospects will be unknown commodities for a good long time. That’s just the way the front office wants it.