Just over a week ago, MLBTR ran a poll asking for your predictions on when the season would start. The most optimistic option, that the season would start on March 31st as scheduled, was selected by just over 16% of respondents. The next most optimistic choice, that the season would begin between April 1st and 15th, garnered just over 18% of the vote. That means that almost two-thirds of voters expected a delay of two weeks or more.
Whether the situation has meaningfully changed in that time is a matter of opinion. For those on the pessimistic side of the spectrum, they could point to the fact that the two sides remain far apart in their respective positions, the most recent meeting lasting just 15 minutes and MLB announcing that Spring Training games won’t begin until March 5th at the earliest.
For those looking for glimmers of hope, they could point to the fact that both sides are planning to meet with greater frequency, perhaps daily, perhaps as soon as tomorrow. Maybe the stall tactics have been exhausted and the time for serious engagement has begun. Ben Nicholson-Smith hears that the MLB is willing to be flexible on some issues and that the MLBPA has said that there won’t be expanded playoffs if a full season is not played. Given that the owners are known to be seeking the extra revenue from those added playoff games, perhaps this ticking clock scenario will finally provide the urgency needed to make real progress.
Are the sleeves getting rolled up? Or is this all just for show? Is the ice about to crack? Or are we just seeing PR moves? After almost three months of mostly wasted time, can the next five years of baseball be ironed out in the next week or two?
What say you? Are you drowning in despair or does your hope spring eternal? Let us know in the poll below.
(link to poll for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users)
Well, we all know how voice of reason feels.
Lolol
My prediction is the same. Lost season no MLB baseball in 2022.
I just got off the phone with Manfred. I ignored his call a bunch, but he went to stalker mode – so, I told him I voted May and he said he will make it happen. Take it for what it’s worth but I got it right from the donkey’s mouth.
Clip – Thanks, I owe you one!
Not just because my prediction will then come true, but because opening the season with a 4-game series against the O’s in Fenway means my hopes and dreams for the season won’t be dashed until at least June. And Big Maple won’t miss as much of the season.
@YC, we’re going to have baseball in April, damn it! : -)
Spring Training was supposed to start last week. It did not, and hardly anyone noticed. That sentiment should ring loudly in the ears of everyone who involved in ending the lockout and agreeing on a new CBA.
Sadly, I don’t think they have a clue. There’s an old marketing maxim that rings true right now: “Ignore your customers long enough and they won’t be your customers any longer!”
Remember last season when you opened against the O’s in Fenway? You got swept.
markakis – Not that I needed the reminder, but thanks! LOL
I voted increased optimism for the same thing.
Who cares. DH and interleauge did me in. Done after 66 years, I can watch in beer league softball. Joke.
Dice – somehow I don’t believe you, seeing as how you’re still obviously following and commenting on baseball news
I guess I’m the lucky one because I don’t. LOL
My prediction still stands, CBA on May 4th and regular season games by Memorial Day weekend.
I have thought Memorial Day as well, but it’s a harder agreement to reach than one reached now. The union is going to have to climb down on reducing revenue sharing and earlier arbitration.
The best time to get a deal for the union is now. After Opening Day, there is going to be a significant penalty in salary for reduced games and for reduced revenues. The MLBPA has banked on a strategy of trying to ‘win on the internet’ and damage the MLB brand. I imagine that a majority of the clubs will want to see not only a pro-ration of salaries for games missed, but also a further reduction for reduced per-game revenue for 2022 at least.
I also anticipate that 2022 service will also be pro-rated. In 2020, the clubs agreed to give players a full years service for playing 60 games. It’s hard to see the clubs agreeing to that this time around, after a work stoppage caused entirely by MLBPA’s Clown Car bargaining agenda and bargaining antics.
So if the union doesn’t reach an agreement this week, it makes sense for MLB to announce the cancelation of the season, leaving open the possibility of a Memorial Day start if the union provides written proposals by April 1 which are good enough to re-start bargaining.. The choice then for the MLBPA will be to abandon in April what it wouldn’t abandon in February, or else risk the loss of the season and possible decertification by players who are happy to sing ‘Solidarity Forever’ right now, but not when they are watching their careers slip by. .
Ummm… the owners caused the work stoppage with their lockout and refused to negotiate for over a month.
best – I just can’t see MLB drawing a line on the amount of revenue sharing. Nearly half of all teams would probably like to have it reduced anyway, and it’s not like money is guaranteed to be handed from the owners to the players because of it.
The arbitration issue, I can see why owners would fight that. 80% of Two Plus players is a huge jump from 22%.
I don’t think MLB would announce a season cancellation before July, it would be a huge PR hit against the league if they did.
The fact that 37 years after mlbpa caved and gave MLB the roll back on arbitration from 2 years to 3, we are saying that even moving to 80% is an unrealistic goal shows why the players are flat out refusing to make concessions on hardening the cap…
Out of line – One of the biggest problems these days with society in general is an unwillingness to consider other people’s viewpoints.
Yes, MLBPA “caved” in 1985 by giving MLB a rollback from 2 years to 3 years on arbitration.
What you fail to mention are all the things that MLB also “caved on” at the same time:
1) MLB “caved” by ending the free agent draft, which allowed free agents to negotiate with all teams
2) MLB “caved” by ending professional player compensation for teams losing free agents.
3) MLB “caved” by more than doubling their contribution to the pension plan
4) MLB “caved” on their proposal of a salary cap
5) MLB “caved” on their proposal of a cap on arbitration awards
It’s called give and take, don’t point out the give without also acknowledging the take.
And how much service time was awarded to all players for the 2020 season? Was it just a half year for the less than two and a half months they played? Who “caved” in 2020?
I predicted the lockout will end on April 15th. Once regular season games start being missed, they should be able to hammer something out in two weeks or the season is really in trouble.
suit – Regular season games will start being missed on March 10 if there’s no CBA by then.
Fever: Good point. Actually, I should have added two weeks to March 10th and predicted the lockout would end on March 24th.
suit – Thanks, I do think if there’s a CBA by March 17th they could reschedule the March 31-April 6 games. That’s what they did in 1990, but keep in mind there were no Wild Card games or Divisional Series games back then so not sure if they could extend the regular season a few more days this year.
That actually worked out very well for me in 1990, because of the rescheduling I was able to snag field box seats just a few rows directly behind home plate. We sat right next to the two Debbies (Clemens and Boggs) who for some reason didn’t share with us any of the drinks that were being delivered to them on a nice tray.
That game also had the sliding Bruno catch in the right field corner that clinched the division for the Red Sox. Good times, one of the best nights ever.
Fever: That was a great night to be at Fenway. Wish I was there too. What a great catch.
suit – That night was so surreal, after the game as fans packed the streets around Fenway, there was a car trying to navigate through it all. And who was in the car? Billy Buckner, who earlier that season had played his last MLB game with the Sox. The fans were so delirious about the huge win, they didn’t give him any garbage and let him get through.
Fever: That’s great. You really never know who you will see outside Fenway. I saw Luis Tiant out there one night and shook his hand.
suit – That is awesome, El Tiante was the Pedro of his time popularity-wise back then. Every kid I knew copied his one-foot spin move.
The comment section here is much more reasonable since I muted that clown.
Which clown? Because there’s a car full of em in here…
yes as well as the many other accounts he operates on this site…
It’s great they’re going to meet more frequently. I’d also like to see them keep the dirty laundry out of the media. We’re tired of the snarky comments and sniping. Just get in the dang room, hammer out an agreement and then release the details.
If Boras is calling the shots for the players, this could take a while.
If Boras were the MLBPA negotiator, the owners probably would’ve surrendered everything the players want already. He’s very good at what he does, unlike the current negotiators on both sides.
Great article, Darragh- thanks.
I did not think they would do what’s best for baseball and I still don’t. Each side is going to continue to just do what’s best for themselves leaving us fans behind and disappointed.
^^ this ^^
Prices are going up due to inflation. Non-player personnel probably want a raise. Add on a raise for players and prices may be crazy obscene at the ball park.
suit – Concession prices have been going up for one reason, because fans continue to pay said prices. I know plenty of fans who during the course of a game spend more money on beer than they did for their ticket.
I do my part to stop the insanity, never buying anything at the park and bringing in what is permissible.
As for ticket prices, I’ll wait for the team or third party seller to lower prices as the game date gets closer. Other than the Rays, teams want to sell tickets and with dynamic pricing will lower prices if prices are set too high to begin with.
Fever: Yeah. I eat before I go to the stadium. Good point about tickets.
I always pregame before going in. I still get 2 tall boys. Expensive but what’s the point of being on vacation and not overpay for beer. The nachos at Coors Field are worth every cent.
I won’t go anymore, they quit taking cash here in Arlington. What a shame. Is this even America anymore?
green – I said the same thing when The Trop became the first major sports venue to go cashless. Taking away a payment option that many people still prefer is ludicrous.
As long as owners insist on turning the CBT into a salary cap, there will be no baseball, and they know that. All the other issues can be split down the middle without doing too much damage to either side. There’s plenty of money in the revenue pot to get there.
A one percent increase in the tax thresholds, from 210 to 214 million doesn’t cut it.
Increasing the tax rates by more than double, from 20 to 50 percent on the lowest tier is ludicrous. It’s a deliberate stalling tactic by MLB.
They’re trying to run out the clock so they don’t have to pay the players, just like they did in 2020.
Do you really think the CBT is just because the owners are mean and greedy? Other leagues have a cap. It is necessary to ensure fairness and order. Only greedy players and their agents want unlimited free agent salaries. Something has to keep teams like the Yankees or Dodgers from spoiling the game for everyone. Unfortunately, the legacy of baseball already has.
Greedy players? Sorry Bob, if the players are greedy, the owners are a 1000 fold more. Yes, other leagues have a cap but the monetary structures of those sports are much different than in baseball. Plus the gap between the cap and the floor is rather narrow compared to what baseball has with the CBT. At it’s current form, it has acted like a de facto cap, though a soft one. The changes the owners are proposing would make it a hard cap. They also want to increase it at a rate below the growth of league revenues and inflation. The CBT in the just expired CBA grew at a rate less than inflation and growth of league revenues as well. So from the players perspective the owners proposal just puts them further and further behind.
NOTHING proposed, either by the owners or the players will keep the Dodgers or the Yankees from “spoiling” the game, though not sure what you mean by that. The big clubs have been always been able to afford to spend more than the smaller clubs. Yankees have been outspending the league pretty much since their inception.
I agree, AlienBob, about competitive balance. I don’t want to see the same few large-market teams in the World Series every year. I think that would be bad for baseball and I think the owners have competitive balance in mind while the players do not.
I’m not going to throw adjectives around. Mean and greedy are your words.
The owners know very well that the players will never, ever agree to a salary cap.
It is abundantly clear that they have a strategy of stalling negotiations until players are missing pay checks so they can get them to accept as little as possible.
They did the same thing in 2020 and they showed that they are willing to cancel regular season games to get what they want.
Owners know that there will be no deal as long as they’re pushing for those draconian penalties. and players know that owners will never go for a blanket reduction in revenue sharing or 2.0 year arbitration.
Owners know that players will not agree to fix minimum salaries for five years or convert the minimums into maximums. They know this, yet they present this farce as if they’re trying to reach a deal. They’re not.
Patrick: It may be that the owners do not want to change much from the status quo and are just waiting for the players to realize they have a choice between basically the status quo or nothing. I’m just speculating. I’m ok with the status quo. I’m not really pulling for either side. If one side has competitive balance in mind more than the other, I will pull for that side. Each side makes way more money than me. $615,000 per year is fine with me for a minimum player salary.
The owners want mostly status quo, but they want expanded playoffs which will net them $100 million from ESPN plus their share of the gate.
They want advertising patches on uniforms.
They want to renew the CBT which sunset at the end of the last CBA, and players have conceded that point, but not the increased penalties.
Owners propose $635 minimum salary, but no increases over five years.
They proposed an alternative three tier minimum, which the players should seize on even if the numbers are different, but then they want to convert those to fixed salaries, so they act as maximums as well.
It’s all tactical up to this point. Owners are stalling to maximize their leverage and players can’t budge unless they negotiate against themselves.
Just adjusting for inflation would put the CBT threshold at $225 million. Then the players’ number of $245M doesn’t seem so outrageous and they should be able to close that gap. The increased penalties are a non starter.
Patrick: Thanks for the good summary. It sounds like they should be able to work through those differences at some point in the near future.
Exactly! Owners have their main ask, expanded playoffs whether it be 12 or 14 teams. They know what they can agree to and afford. This is nothing more than a way to punish the players and squeeze as many concessions out of them as possible. But I don’t think they want to cancel the entire 2020 season, just enough to really hurt the players and still have their playoffs come fall.
It’s not a salary cap at all. For a salary cap, see: Salary Cap.
The clubs have agreed to remove draft pick penalties for signing free agents. The only draft penalties now would arise from exceeding the SECOND and THIRD degree CBT penalties.
I agree with the MLB proposal. I want to see a penalty for teams that ignore the CBT, because I don’t want to see the Dodgers or the Yankees, or even the Sox, using their tremendous market advantage to the disadvantage of other teams, without paying any price. Other than the internet echo chamber supporting everything the MLBPA/Boras propose, I haven’t heard a good reason why there shouldn’t be a penalty.
Moreover, the players have gained already by the clubs agreeing to eliminated draft penalties for signing free agents. It’s a bit rich to have a work stoppage over the supposed ‘right’ of a few teams to blow thought the CBT thresholds without any penalty.
When the last CBA was signed, six teams were over the CBT threshold. All of them slashed payroll to get under it within two years.
Last year, five teams were within $4 million of the lowest tax threshold without going over, including the Yankees, Red Sox, and Astros. They’re treating it like a de facto salary cap.
Owners are still butt hurt that they lost the salary cap issue in 1994 when a federal court found that they negotiated in bad faith. They’ve been trying to get a de facto salary cap ever since.
Now they propose to more than double the tax rates, and add draft pick penalties, and only increase thresholds by one percent per year.
They want a harder salary cap.
The players will never trade the free agent compensation that affects on average seven players each year, for draft penalties on the CBT. Never. it’s not a net gain for players.
It”s also not a net gain to increase the minimum salary by less than the rate of inflation, and then not raise it again for five years.
This is the crap that owners are proposing. Bad faith 100%
Patrick, from reading your posts I think the fundamental issue is that you don’t know what a ‘Salary Cap’ is. A salary cap is a club salary level that a club CANNOT exceed. It’s not something that you exceed for a few years, then get back under as you write about. That is not a salary cap. That is a CBT level that teams can exceed if they want to, but with a penalty. That is what the clubs propose, that is what I and most fans want and that is what will come out of the negotiations.
Even the union doesn’t really believe that it will get the clubs to give up BOTH draft pick penalties for signing mega-contracts AND CBT levels with a penalty for breaking the second and third levels. That is just grist for the internet mill Patrick that they peddle looking for suckers. Don’t fall for it. And don’t pretend to the rest of us that this MLBPA nonsense is anything but. Thanks.
I know what a salary cap is. What MLB has now is a de facto soft salary cap. It is that because several teams treat it as such.
When the penalties for going over the threshold are so severe that teams will not cross the threshold, then it is a cap.
The owners propose more than doubling the tax rates and adding first and second round draft pick penalties for teams that go over the thresholds.
They want a harder de facto salary cap.
You can call it something else, but if it walks like a cap and quacks like a cap, what is it?
The draft pick compensation for free agents was sold as a way to compensate smaller market teams who can’t afford to keep their home grown players. In fact, it was designed as a deterrent to signing some of the best free agent players. It hasn’t worked.
Most of the draft compensation picks have gone to larger market teams who keep their players for six years. Teams that are not contending would much rather trade those players than get a comp pick.
Since it was first implemented, they have removed any player who has been previously given a QO, and any player who has been traded during the season. It now applies to an average of seven players per season over the past five years. That’s it. It’s not a huge concession at all.
Players will never swap that for draft penalties in the CBT. Never.
Screen name, “that is what I and most fans want.” What is your basis for this statement?
No change here.I figure they’ll get it right next week and we’ll have a season.
I’ve said that here on Trade Rumors, but didn’t get any upvotes.
Oh well. I still say it’ll be a “go” just in time.
… I hope you’re correct, Fred. But, I’m not optimistic.
30 Parks, that’s a great screen name and avatar.
One of the best.
The poll here (and the comments) show a lot of pessimism about the ending of the lockout.
I believe that because of the pandemic and other world conditions,
the prevailing sentiment right now is pessimism. It sours everything we think or do.
But, I also believe that one nice medicine for the pessimism might be a good, active baseball season with some “normal” stuff going on.
One more reason to hope!
I agree, Fred. I’m up here in eastern Canada (Nova Scotia) and I’d usually be heading off to Spring Training in a few weeks. As you said, with all the trouble in the world, I could certainly use some sunny days & baseball right about now (I can often be found in the RF berm seats in Clearwater). Again, I hope you’re right, we could all handle some good vibes. Thanks for the kind words, Fred.
I feel the same way but I’m not not going to let it bother me either way.
Many previous comments here have been so unbelievably pessimistic. It’s all a bit ridiculous.
I mean, we all have favorite teams and players but none of them care about us. They don’t care about “fans,” in general, and they certainly don’t care about any of us individually. I’m sure as hell not going to get worked up over any of this. Life’s too short.
Not yet.. soon though.
For years running up to the end of the last CBA, my position was “a work stoppage that would result in lost games would be so bad for both sides that nobody would be dumb enough to even get close to it”.
Even when negotiations over the 2020 season were not productive, my position was “haha well they’re just posturing for 2022, and actually maybe having them unexpectedly negotiate over 2020 will make 2022 go smoother”.
Even when owners locked out the players, my position was “well this is just posturing and PR, unless you are an injured MLB player a lockout in the offseason doesn’t really change anything I’m sure they’ll get it done before we miss any games”.
But now, I am forced to conclude that, oh my god, they actually are that dumb. We’re going to miss games. Players will go down with injuries because they didn’t have enough of a warm-up period. ACLs will be torn, UCLs will be removed from cadavers, the playoff hopes of teams will be lost to this.
I generally side with the owners because I think that tanking, long periods of exclusive control, and service time manipulation have all resulted in extremely entertaining teams that have made baseball so watchable in the last decade, but it’s hard to not argue that the owners have been acting in bad faith here.
No change, thought this was going to be a long slog from the beginning, players ain’t about to cave this time, and the threat of no playoff revenue will be the only thing forcing ownership to realistically bargain with the give and take needed to come to an agreement.
Less optimistic the season starts on time, but a delay of a week to 10 days could still get 162 games in.
IDK, probably dealing with some dark triad personality traits among the billionaire owners who are use to winning at any cost.
Love when either side uses fair, good for the game or fans in their arguments.
You might have it backwards, considering the fact that MLB players are the most bigoted and generally unsavory ‘individuals’ of all the major sports.
I’m not inclined to agree there. I’m very reluctant to assign a strong term, like “bigoted,” to entire group of sportsmen (or any other) without knowing they are, in fact, bigots. I don’t believe they are. We can do better than that.
Name another sport where they recently had the equivalence of a player making fun of a race’s eye shape and a coach performing the hitler salute. Just to name 2 recent examples. Baseball players are the worst ‘individuals’ of all the major sports, of course with many exceptions to that general rule. And anti-semitism is still rampant in MLB clubhouses, just for a 3rd example. Baseball players are the worst.
So, two individuals doing two separate actions subjectively interpreted as “racist” or ethnically biased represent a bigoted league? I cannot agree with you on either point and believe this is the type of stigma / classification misnomer that is highly problematic in our society today. One action = extreme labeling and results in complete annihilation or cancellation.
It’s an insult to people who actually have been victims of racially discriminatory behavior.
It’s your opinion, I just completely & vehemently disagree.
Right, sure… Mocking a race’s eye shape and performing an action that glorifies someone who was responsible for the genocide of millions isn’t racist/bigoted. Ok…
I don’t know their intent or what they did, but even if they did those actions, that does not make the whole baseball community bigots, which is what you said. That’s completely inappropriate and dangerously ignorant.
Other members of the team joked with him as he performed the salute multiple times and it reflects a cultural problem in baseball. It really is fitting that baseball is such an irrelevant and dying sport.
Even one whole team (which this doesn’t sound like) does not represent baseball as a whole & you seem to be the only one aware of this team function. Nevertheless, baseball’s culture has nothing to do with what you described. That’s a culture people are bringing in to a clubhouse.
Baseball is incredibly inclusive & widely celebrates Jackie Robinson and other barrier-breakers for those specific reasons. Baseball breaks down these walls, it doesn’t put them up – people do that.
Look, I can’t engage in this with you because your view is so….different on this issue. I’m am fundamentally opposed to classifying people with such inflammatory language simply because it furthers my point. I don’t believe what you say is accurate, sir, and I think baseball players are better than that as a whole. Just one opinion.
I’d love to see A’s fans opinions of this scenario because I think they may disagree with the assessment too.
I’m not the only one aware of it, just because others aren’t chiming in. It was the Oakland A’s and it definitely reflects the well known bigotry problem in baseball that has been talked about many times over the years. Much more than the other sports. Really is fitting that baseball is so irrelevant and such a dying game.
Labeling the actions of two individuals (although to be fair, the action of the coach is a management issue) as endemic of the whole sport is narrow-minded and divisive. No sport is free of incidents of racism, by both management and the players. Calling out baseball players solely on this issue shows a bigger problem as you are cherry-picking random incidents to support your argument. May I remind you that some owners hold some reprehensible views, also. I know she is no longer with us, but Marge Schott collected Nazi memorabilia or that the minority hiring practices of all four major leagues in the US is poor, at best.
I highly doubt you are American. I was roommates with an Asian American in college…..
Your antiwhite, antiaAmerican attitude is laughable……
You are acting more offended than possible……
Wanna hear Asian race jokes?….roommate with an Asian dude
Your name makes me think you might be a tad biased.
Not to mention his avatar…
By the way, the joke will ultimately be on ryan christenson for that. Although he might not realize it until the next existence. he completely screwed himself.
I can think of at least two incidents involving professional hockey players making racist gestures and remarks that happened within the last two months…
Once the teams, players, league and networks realize how much $$$$$$$$ they are losing they’ll get a deal done in an hour.
Yeah, exactly; that sword that cuts both ways. They reap huge profits from TV, etc, but they also have a responsibility now to provide the service for TV. So, when they don’t provide the product TV has paid for, pressure begins.
Been a fan for too long, but how many of you have wondered what it would look like to have all 30 principle owners in a room…discussing this lock out…..?
It would make a great r-rated mini-series….
I’d like to see less public posturing and more negotiating, but I can’t really say I expected better from either side. This feels like 1994, where ownership brought in Richard Ravitch to play hard ball. This theatre has to do with hundreds of millions and possibly even billions of dollars. It’s not going to just end in a group hug.
I haven’t changed my prediction. This will be settled by March 1st, camp opens march 15th, regular season starts April 15th
Once the Union Said no expended playoffs if players don’t get a full 162 game pay, I got much more hopeful this gets done to start on time. Then the news that the owners want to meet everyday next week, and they had room to move on CBT and pay for young players. Gave me even more hope. Owners want the extra $100 million from expanded playoffs. So if they are going to have to pay through players for a full season to get it, then they might as well play the games.
About f****** time. The owners have always felt they had this in the bag. Pulling it back was the right thing for the MLBPA to do if they wanted to play this season. Without it there would be absolutely no hope that this season gets started anywhere on time.
14 postseason teams is too many but I can live with 12.
I don’t like the “picking your opponents” thing though. This isn’t a playground fight…regardless of how much these “negotiations” make it appear that it is.
Prediction: unless the market size revenue disparity is fixed, baseball will continue to suck.
Why is it that only baseball has this issue? NFL teams in Tampa, Miami, Pittsburgh and other so called “small market” cities have no problem paying for talent with their ‘large market’ brethren. Same with the NBA. It would seem that certain teams use this as an excuse for their other shortcomings. Why is it that Tampa is always competitive in a brutal division and the Pirates are usually also rans in a fairly weak division? It just seems like an excuse used by teams which are run poorly.
That is exactly correct. They’ve just seen it for so long the fans buy into it. For example, if the argument is true that money doesn’t buy championships, why are so many of those same folks in favor of a cap? Are they concerned the Yankees are going to overspend Hal’s money?
Meanwhile, if one thinks money does buy championships, how is one okay with a team (say Pirates) not even spending their total revenue share, but pocketing it?!
It’s the greatest scam these owners have developed. That’s why a $7B team like the Yankees are striving to operate like the “impoverished” Rays, right? Or could it be that the owner is making a killing?
TV contracts in the NFL are 100% national, split 32 ways evenly.
MLB contracts for the regular season are much more local, and vary greatly depending on the market size. The disparity is enormous between the largest and smallest markets.
ekrog, the Rays routinely finishing ahead of the Yankees and Sox doesn’t help your argument very much.
The Rays have finished ahead of the Yankees and Red Sox several times but they are almost always overmatched in the postseason while Boston and NYY have a bunch of trophies. I think that’s the main argument.
While the Sox have won a few in recent years, the Yankees have won one in the last 20 and the Dodgers have one in the last 30.
@joe. In the Dodgers *asterisk* 60 regular game 2020 season…
This is a great point. What I find most often when people talk about greater financial dispersement, using the Yankees (or similar) as their case in point for lack of disparity, what they’re really saying is, “I want the tables set so my team wins the WS and I think giving them more money will do that.” But it won’t. Neither will a cap.
Baseball already has the greatest parity among all sports. It’s just a fact if one reviews the numbers. @JoeSays brings up the most important point about the Yankees & LAD having only one championship in several decades, yet they’re often attacked the most because of spending.
The Dodgers are choke artists. Anyway, Tampa Bay has only advanced beyond the ALDS twice in franchise history and one of those times was in a fake season. The Yankees and Red Sox have made deeper postseason runs than the Rays for the most part.
No change. I’ve been pessimistic in the extreme since the beginning and I”ll stay that way until they’re actually playing games.
By the end of the month. Again, the PA really isn’t asking for anything of any substance. Service time will still be totally a management tool to use, the increases in minimum wage are minimal, some kind of draft lottery was inevitable, etc.,
They had a chance to really do something this year, drastically changing Free Agency and Arbitration guidelines, and they caved. Marvin Miller must be doing back flips in his grave. Any additional costs the owners have to pay is more than washed by forthcoming gaming revenues, which the union hasn’t even mentioned. It took them years to participate in the cable revenue run-ups, and now it’ll probably take another 10 years to share in the Draft Kings, et al bonanza.
Don’t kid yourself; the “animosity” between owners and players is like the “animosity” between Democrats and Republicans. They all eat dinner at the same restaurants, laughing at the rank and file.
I mostly agree. The changes the players would have “won” hardly amount to an improvement over the last CBA, and all the while the owners continue to rake in TV and BAM revenues that in the case of several teams, outweighs their entire annual payroll.
Where I disagree is the idea the 2 parties view one another as equals who are “laughing at the rank and file.” Even in the cases of the absolute riches players, make no mistake – the billionaire owners who pay them do not view them as equals. There is still a very clear distinction between management and labor in MLB, even for the best-compensated players.
Gotta agree with you there; the owners may take the players out to dinner but wouldn’t want their daughters to marry one. Employer/employee relations will always be adversarial.
I’m just truly surprised more substantive changes aren’t being sought by the PA. Service time ought to be a function of when the player signed his contract, ESPECIALLY now that the owners in reality control the minor leagues. Instead, we get promotions to the 40 or the 26 based on some extremely nebulous criteria, by its nature a procedure bound to be fraught with dishonesty. I’ve noted before that it’s bizarre to think Joe Burrows can lead his team to the Super Bowl two or three years after college, but Adley Rutchman can’t decide on whether his pitcher should throw a fastball or curveball without “seasoning”.
And yes, promotions are always to some degree subjective. But the shelf life of a ball player is a heck of a lot shorter than just about any other profession.
But my original point still stands; there just isn’t enough landscape between the two to prevent the season getting started either on time, or with minimal delay. Few teams (big boys like the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox) actually make money in Spring Training; for most, it’s a loss, albeit not a huge one. And by week 5, the players can’t wait to get it over with. So few, only the cities that depend on the additional revenues, will cry if it’s shortened by a week or 10 days. And if they’re forced to add some double headers, they can move to the 7-inning types, which IMO they both really want anyway.
The players act like the owners making more money is pushing them into poverty.
Crying poverty with a suitcase of money under each arm.
The players are fairly paid. Want to fix the system for young players not eligible for FA, create that money pool that owner/union invest in at a 2-1 ratio, and give such players who have an outstanding year a reward from it and dump arbitration
Yeah, let’s go back to an era where the big market teams spent recklessly and small-market teams had firesales every season.
Let’s just be thankful for one thing. Once this madness is done with, we won’t have to deal with it until the 2026-2027 offseason in which we might have a new commissioner?
No change for me until the urgency picks up, at least. I do think that the PA saying no expanded playoffs if there isn’t a full season was a pretty good tactic. We shall see, I guess.
I said back on the prediction article in December Beware the Ides of March. Could be
If an agreement isn’t reached by 02/28 it’s because MLBPA never intended to negotiate in good faith with MLB. It’s also MLBPA doesn’t want to be in the same room with MLB for fear the owners might strike up a conversation that could reach a quick settlement. MLBPA is using Scott Boras’ playbook – drag negotiations out to the very end in hopes of the owners giving into their demands.
MLBPA remember demands may lead to unexpected consequences – NON-TENDER!
This is absurd
Owners are proposing more than double the CBT tax rates
Owners are proposing only one percent increase in CBT thresholds
Owners are proposing no increase in minimum salaries over a five year deal
Owners are proposing converting minimum salaries to maximum
Owners are proposing increase in minimum salaries less than the rate of inflation
Owners demand advertising patches on uniforms
Owners demand 14 teams in the playoffs
Owners offer $15 million to make the arbitration deadline issue go away
Owners refused to make any offer in December unless players took free agency, arbitration and revenue sharing off the table
Owners unilaterally implemented a lockout
Owners unilaterally implemented a freeze on all player transactions
Owners refused to negotiate for six weeks after implementing a lockout
And you say the players are stalling? That’s absurd.
$615,000 is a GREAT minimum salary. I would love to make $615,000 per year.
suit, become one of the 780 best in the world at what you do in an $11B a year industry, and you probably can get at least $615k per year.
gbs42: Yep and that’s fine with me. I never said it didn’t make sense. I’m not really supporting players getting a raise because I think the owners will pass that cost onto the fans. I am rooting for competitive balance and keeping costs down for fans. I think $615,000 is great for a minimum salary, knowing they can make a lot more than the minimum.
From a purely monetary and strategic viewpoint, giving the players a substantial increase in the minimum wage is the preferred method of sharing more of the revenues.
For example, if the minimum salary was increased to $750K, that’s 179,500 raise per player. If half the roster is minimum salaried players, that’s $2.33 million. That will tend to be a bit more for teams with smaller payrolls and less for teams with larger payrolls.
Now take the CBT threshold. Owners will have to come up from $214 million, but say the increase is to $230M, which is the mid point with the players’ $245M. That’s $16 million more that a team just under the threshold can spend. There were half a dozen of those teams in 2021, so if they all pushed up just under the threshold, that’s almost $100 million in net salary increase.
Now take the arbitration cutoff. If it were to go from the current 22% super two cutoff, which fell at 2.116 this year, to 2.5 seasons which is 2.086- a difference of 30 days, another 35 players or so would be eligible for arbitration. Super two’s can get up to $7.5 million for a Vlad Guererro and a starting player a floor of $2 million. That’s a lot more money than $3 mil per team.
IN addition, the great majority of the players would be instantly gratified with an increase in the minimum salary, in a way that no other perk could benefit them so immediately and directly.
So I would expect the minimum salary to be the area where owners give the most of the issues remaining, other than dropping the CBT penalties
Patrick: I see what you saying. The owners could give a lot of that. What would the players give? I think the owners would want something in return. Perhaps the higher CBT penalties as you mention. Wouldn’t all those gives by the owners offset the added revenue from expanded playoffs?
I’m not sure you can say the owners are demanding the things you say they are demanding.
I don’t think the owner’s proposals are fair, and I’m sure they are going to change.
Once again Patrick is singing faithfully from the MLBPA hymnbook, but the lines of the hymns don’t ring true.
1. “Owners refused to negotiate for six weeks”. Simply untrue. As Rob Manfred said, phones work both ways. No one, except Patrick, has ever suggested that the union tried to negotiate in those 6 weeks but the clubs refused.
2. “Owners unilaterally implemented a lockout”. Who does Patrick think implements a lockout? Of course it’s the clubs. And of course, it’s unilateral, they don’t ask the players to vote on it. The same with a strike. Unions “unilaterally” implement strikes. The clubs don’t have a say.
3. The clubs have told the players from the outset that they’re not going to change the free agency threshold, in place almost 50 years, arbitration eligibility (40 years) or reduce or end revenue sharing. Yet two of these three non-starters remain outstianding. The players could have pulled these losers in December and there wouldn’t have been a lockout.
They got what they deserve.
4. As Peter Gammons wrote this week, players are starting to say that this is about finding a $300MM landing spot for Correa. Anyone who believes that MLBPA or Boras is concerned about competitiveness or the integrity of the game is a sad soul indeed. Scott and now the MLBPA don’t want teams to have to pay a penalty for exceeding the CBT. That’s what this is all about at this point. Anyone with an open mind properly informed, can no longer support the MLBPA in this.
1. I never said that the players tried to negotiate during the six weeks, but the players made the last proposal and owners refused to counter unless players took three huge issues off the table. Your statement is false.
3. Arbitration eligibility was actually two years for the first 15 years that it was implemented. It was then three years, then two years with 17 percent in super two status, then 22 percent in super two status. 40 years unchanged?
Your statement is false.
4. I never said that anyone wants competitive balance. Both sides want to keep a larger share of the revenue. They talk about competitive balance, but follow the money.
In FACT the players have proposed keeping exactly the same tax rates as the current agreement. Their proposal for thresholds is $20 million more than the rate of inflation. Sure, the players would like to have higher salaries, but “no penalties”? Your statement is false again.
The players are concerned about much more than Carlos Correa.
The median salary declined by over 30 percent during the last CBA.
The average salary declined, while MLB revenues increased from 6.3 billion to 10.7 billion during the last two CBA’s.
I am not fully on board with what the players are asking for. They’re not getting a huge change in the arbitration eligibility cutoff, nor a straight cut in revenue sharing. Their numbers are high on a number of other points, but those can be compromised once they get to that point.
But the owners are stalling, not making any significant moves. And the moves that they do make are sold as huge concessions, while they’re actually offsetting them with other demands that will never fly.
Owners are proposing more than double the CBT tax rates
Owners are proposing only one percent increase in CBT thresholds
Owners are proposing no increase in minimum salaries over a five year deal
Owners are proposing converting minimum salaries to maximum
Owners are proposing increase in minimum salaries less than the rate of inflation
Owners demand advertising patches on uniforms
Owners demand 14 teams in the playoffs
Owners offer $15 million to make the arbitration deadline issue go away
Owners refused to make any offer in December unless players took free agency, arbitration and revenue sharing off the table
Owners unilaterally implemented a lockout
Owners unilaterally implemented a freeze on all player transactions
Owners refused to negotiate for six weeks after implementing a lockout
Patrick, I enjoy reading your posts as it is, but you tend to lay things out like I would, point-by-point. It makes me wonder what your profession is ….seems very lawyerly/Justice-system. I gravitate toward legal prose so I take notice when others habitually write in like manner.
Either way, you detailed your argument nicely and I think you and I agree on nearly all points as we are consistent on the following overarching points:
1) Owners did not negotiate in good faith from the start & have not respond in a timely manner until recently.
2) We do not excuse or justify the players requests as reasonable or expectant; rather, we believe they will inevitably have to compromise in full on their rather high requests too in order to achieve the reasonable ones.
Clipper, I am an attorney and I write about baseball for a hobby.
If we are to be optimistic, we would think that the owners’ current positions are just part of their stalling game to give the players as little as possible.
If MLB owners want the status quo with expanded playoffs, they could easily drop their more offensive positions and hope to get a deal done, but there is a certain amount that the players will want back.
Owners would be wise to be generous on the minimum salaries, as that will be immediately very satisfying to over 60 percent of players.
The two sides know what the other is not willing to do, and those things should be dropped this coming week, then it’s just a matter of splitting the numbers. Nothing worth missing games over.
Interesting, and I didn’t mean to call you out on that it’s just….noticeable to me (in a good & familiar way).
I hope you’re right. I believe you’ve said as much before as well, but I think the owners could’ve received a favorable contract by compromising on some key positions, while maintaining an appearance of sincerity/compassion.
Nevertheless, I’m curious to see what the coming week(s) hold as we endeavor to start the season before April.
@Patrick, this is in essence my view and why I’m more optimistic than most here.
I am more pessimistic than I have ever been. But if correct, the fact that the MLBPA is taking expanded playoffs off the table if we miss games this season gives at least a glimmer of hope that we can start this season with a minimum of lost games. It is the only thing that will force the owners to the table and seriously negotiate.
And in the End… crazy thing is they are all greedy … they are deciding how to divvy up our money, not theirs. In the end whatever they decide , the cash comes from us.
Really what they’re figuring out is how much more can they get from us.
Yes. That’s why I don’t care if the players or the owners get a raise.
It’s presented to us as owners vs the players. Make the fans take sides. As evident in the comments. It’s the old “divide and conquer “.
Keeps the fans from uniting.
Too busy taking sides so we don’t realize the reality is they’re fu…ing around with our money.
I think I guessed March 11. I’m still sticking with that.
I am curious. Is anyone on here a former big leaguer or one with intimate knowledge of what it’s like to be a player from a labor standpoint? In my mind I’m thinking “As someone who is just a fairly normal middle class American, making a BASE salary of over half a million a year, it seems unreasonable to me that players be demanding more money”. I cannot comprehend making $500,000 or more every year. I could if I wanted to, but it would take me nearly 20 years to obtain that in my line of work. And that’s minimum! They are already payed higher than any other professional sport (if I’m not mistaken, could be wrong). Now, I’m not saying owners aren’t greedy, but if I’m getting paid millions to play baseball, I’m happy. But that’s just me. Can anyone shed some REAL light, not just speculation, as to why the players are supporting a labor union that absolutely sucks at bargaining?
I should clarify, I am not making 500k. The players are making at least that much.
You can compare the minimum players make to what most of us make, or you can compare the minimum MLB players to minimums in the NBA, NFL, and NHL. MLB ranks 4th in terms of minimums.
Players argument on a bigger piece of the pie is based on increased revenue from tv contracts since the last CBA.
My prediction is by the end of next week, we’ll all be optimistic.
Baseball will have its first Spring Training game March 5th.
I hope you’re right Halos11Fan.
Instead of the owners versus the players, why not have each side decide within themselves. Get the owners of the 15 poorest franchises to come to an agreement and get all the players below median salary to reach an agreement, Then bring those two groups together to reach a final agreement between the two sides. The rich can learn to live with it, they’re already rolling in it anyway. Take them out of the room and finally have real progress for the game of the baseball. A game we all could afford and enjoy. Let the little guy breathe life back into the game.
Considering my pick was yesterday, yes.
The closer it gets the more optimistic i am because neither side wants to lose money
All this is music to the ears of everyone connected with the USFL. Baseball drives fans back to football…. The new national past time.
No one cares about spring football except year round gamblers.
I will care about football when Penn State and the Steelers return. It is like the WNBA or other minor league sports
Late May or Early June was my guess. I think the tension between the 2 sides isn’t getting resolved until we have some give on both ends and both sides seem to be willing to lose about 30-60 games off the schedule to get each point across.
Feb 29 baseball will resume!
I would hope that some kind of reason can be brought into these negotiations, but I am not confident. There was too much time wasted after some agreement was reached during 2020. Both sides should’ve been at the table trying to hammer together an agreement at that point as they had some common ground. No, they wait until the eleventh hour to start talking and then neither side seems willing to move on the major issue now. Look, I have my view on this issue, but as a fan, my views are not important to either side and more is the pity. Both sides are more interested in getting the “win” than what is good for the sport.
My thoughts haven’t changed at all. They are millionaires and billionaires who are more concerned about which side “wins” than they are about the fans or the sport itself.
June 15th is the start of the season.
To quote Dr. Evil…
HOW ‘BOUT NO!?
Stil the same. Half season.
I would honestly rather have no season than have another shortened season. I mean significantly shortened. If they play over 140 games then I’ll consider it legitimate enough.
I am thinking a 60 game season like 2020. The Dodgers can win again and think again they won a title.
Braves champs again in a full 2023 season?
The season will start whenever the MLBPA wants it to.
My opinion hasn’t changed. We knew going in to this it was going to be a war of attrition and so far neither side has disappointed
I feel like with a deadline now set, given with the fact that neither side wants to miss games, they’ll get something done this week and maybe the season will start on time. I’m probably crazy but that’s where I am.
I’m surprised that there is so little optimism given the narrowing of the issues and the greater intensity of meetings. Most of us are baseball fans with little exposure to collective bargaining in any context. That’s something I did in an earlier life decades ago. While I don’t see a rush to a solution, I do see a clearer path to an agreement. Many of the remaining issues are not yes or no, but rather how much kinds of questions. Those kinds of questions have a lot of room for compromise and horse trading. Once they get close, it could go very quickly. That’ why I said I’m slightly more optimistic than I was a week ago.
Correct. That’s sort of the point of my note below. They have the framework on key issues, now they need to converge on numbers. They will.
My lockout prediction hasn’t changed, but I’m more optimistic for a near-term settlement since both sides will be meeting regularly. It’s good that some owners will be showing up too.
The owners can not really afford a significant shutdown after 2020 and the financial commitments they have to the TV networks in 2022, plus the potential for other revenue. The MLBPA’s threat to not have an expanded postseason in 2022 if a single game is lost has put significant fear in ownership. The MLBPA played a card ownership didn’t expect, and it’s a good one, because trying to outlast the players will be extremely costly to ownership.
As long as the players come off a few of their requests and focus on a couple key wins, this will be settled within 10 to 14 days max. They’ll get a meaningful increase in the luxury tax, they’ll get an increased minimum league salary, they’ll get additional money in the arbitration player pool that both sides seem to want, and hopefully both sides can begin to focus on the stain of tanking. Players need to come off of players getting arbitration in two years and significantly decreasing revenue sharing. A reasonable approach will lead to a reasonable deal. It’s closer than most fans realize.
Rob, You sound very optimistic. I expect the luxury tax is an axis that MLB will hold tight. I don’t think it maters as much to the PA as bumping up pay for current pre-arb players both through earlier arbitration eligibility and higher minimums. Raising their pay helps the short timers and the middle class vets (by making them relatively less expensive). That’s the focus for the PA this time around.
@HankJ, Yes, for the most part I am, although I will occasionally throw a fit! I certainly could be wrong, but I believe both sides want to avoid a shutdown. There are also more than enough people on management’s side who remember the damage ’94-’95 caused. The last couple months have mostly been about posturing in advance of getting serious. We’re at that point now where the two sides will work to close the dollar gaps now that they’ll be meeting regularly.
I believe the CBT is important to MLB in the sense they won’t give it up, but the MLBPA has seen how its lack of growth has created downward pressure. It originally was the “Yankee tax.” In 2021, five teams had CBT payrolls over more than $200M. It’s one of the contributing factors to the middle-class players getting squeezed, so the MLBPA would like it to increase and I don’t think management will fight a higher increase too hard, especially since it doesn’t directly cost them anything.
Anyway, it’s these type of dollars and thresholds the two sides need to converge on to reach an agreement. I will be optimistic this will happen sooner rather than later.
I think it’s hard to overstate how important the “salary cap” issue is to players, and they view the current CBT proposals from owners as an attempt to harden the de facto salary cap. The players feel that much blood has spent defending that hill, including the 1994 strike that resulted in the world series being canceled, the court battles and two years played without a CBA when they got no increases in anything.
They talk the talk about improving the lot of younger players, but they’re not going to go for those harsh penalties and tax increases that the owners want in the CBT proposal.
Also, I suspect the owners want the players to use as much of their bargaining energy as possible on that issue so they make less progress on others, before finally keeping the CBT basically the same with a modest increase in the thresholds.
If the owners truly are dug in on that issue, expect a long summer without baseball.
Ever the optimist, RobM. You are truly a glass half-full, my friend.
Changed? Nah, I still believe both sides suck.
Baseball is not a career
Not like someone going into the medical field, or becoming an engineer and doing that for the rest of their working days.
Baseball is chasing a dream and just like people who go to Hollywood in hopes of becoming a big star, some do and most don’t but those that do get paid at a level few of us can even dream about, but do we owe everyone a living just for trying?!
Hypothetically, if it resumed by Memorial Day would they still use their spring training sites?
My feelings haven’t changed significantly. There won’t be a season unless there are replacement players and someone on here said MLB can’t use replacement players in a lockout so I don’t see a season happening.
If the union really wants to win over the fans, which they may need to since the owners can hold out longer and not pay anyone a dime, they should publicly negotiate for concessions for those attending games. I can’t imagine any rules limiting beer or ticket prices would fly, but wow would the fans flock to the side proposing it.
There are a few things that players could request that would be very popular with fans.
– End blackouts
– Guarantee minor league players $1000 per week for 26 weeks minimum, plus housing and meals on game days
– Require teams to spend $100 million on payroll
The first two would not be mandatory issues for bargaining, so the owners could just refuse to entertain them. The salary floor we’ve covered- players see it as the flip side of a salary cap and won’t go there (which I think is a huge mistake)
It is always the owners thst drive up the salaries, not the players. This may all end just like it did the last time in the 95 – 96 owner imposed lockout when one of the biggest advocates for the lockout, Risendorf owner of the Chisox suddenly signed Albert Bell to the first evet $10mm contract. after that signing, the rest of the owners lockout collasped and it eas back to Game On!
Late start with post season rule changes: home team starts game with bases loaded, away teams’ pitcher can only throw with opposing arm, managers who argue balls and strikes must wear diapers.
Last year was the first year I paid any attention to MLB in over 20 years, and now they are playing games arguing over how to divvy up millions of dollars. Not a good look. Thankfully, I have college basketball, softball, and baseball to keep me occupied well into June. After that? I don’t know — time will tell.