In a Monday mailbag, Dennis Lin of The Athletic poured cold water on pre-lockout reports that the Padres had targeted Nick Castellanos to fill an outfield/DH vacancy, but he did suggest the club might enter the sweepstakes for Japanese slugger Seiya Suzuki when free agency resumes. While fitting Suzuki into their payroll might require finding a taker for at least a portion of the salary due to Eric Hosmer or Wil Myers on the trade market, principal owner Peter Seidler has indicated the club’s budget has at least a bit of room for growth, though this could depend on luxury tax provisions in the new CBA (the Padres slightly exceeded the threshold last season, and the previous deal included escalating penalties for repeat offenders). The longtime Hiroshima Toyo Carp outfielder, who might offer the highest bang-for-the-buck potential among remaining free agent outfielders, won’t command nearly the salary sought by Castellanos or Kris Bryant (MLBTR projects Suzuki will sign for five years and $55MM). Including projections for arbitration-eligible players, the Padres are presently on the hook for just shy of $199MM in 2022 salary (via Jason Martinez of Roster Resource).
Though the Giants and Mariners appear to be the industry favorites to sign Suzuki, Padres fans have learned never to put anything past GM and president of baseball operations A. J. Preller, particularly given Seidler’s repeated willingness to green-light moves that commit the club to significant years and dollars. As Lin notes, the Padres had only three above-average lineup regulars (Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Jake Cronenworth) in 2021. Suzuki’s bat is hardly a sure thing — Friars fans will note the significant adjustment difficulties of KBO import Ha-Seong Kim in 2021, though the versatile infielder did provide significant value with his glove — but his career .315/.414/.541 line at Japan’s highest level (.317/.433/.539 in 2021) offers plenty to dream on.
A few other Padres notes as we wait out the (rather bleak) CBA negotiations:
- In the same mailbag, Lin discussed the Padres’ closer situation, which remains unsettled following the departure of 2021 NL saves leader Mark Melancon to the Diamondbacks. Drew Pomeranz is the obvious choice for a ninth-inning role, but he’s coming off surgery to repair a torn flexor tendon that ended his 2021 season in August. Lin notes that both Emilio Pagan and the recently signed Robert Suarez have experience in the role, but Pagan had a less-than-stellar 2021 (4.83 ERA, 5.22 FIP) and all of Suarez’s 68 career saves came in Japan, where he’s played since 2016. Should the Padres no longer view him as a starter, Dinelson Lamet could also be an option, though new manager Bob Melvin may prefer to use him in a multi-inning role. In any event, Lin expects the Padres to address lineup questions before turning to the bullpen. They could turn to one or several of low-cost options with histories of big-league success, a list that includes Brad Hand, Chris Martin, Archie Bradley, Adam Ottavino, Sergio Romo, Yusmeiro Petit, Mychal Givens, Sean Doolittle, Pedro Strop, Richard Rodriguez, and Tyler Clippard.
- Consensus top-10 prospect CJ Abrams, who missed the second half of the 2021 season after suffering a broken tibia and torn MCL in late-June infield collision and had recently dealt with shoulder issues, has been cleared to resume baseball activities, reports Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Prior to the injury, the 21-year-old shortstop compiled a .296/.363/.420 batting line in a 42-game sample at Double-A San Antonio. As he’s not yet on the Padres’ 40-man roster, Abrams is not affected by the lockout and could play in mini-camp games in short order. Though he’s certain to begin 2022 in the minors, Abrams is a potential candidate for a late-season call-up should his bat continue to show life in the upper minors, particularly if Fernando Tatis Jr.’s shoulder issues persist or manager Bob Melvin revisits plans to deploy Tatis in the outfield.
The only way I see Suzuki is being a good fit for the mariners, is if he can play a decent center field.
I agree.
Also, happy Black History Month to everyone.
A dude named CravenMoorhead saying “Happy BHM” can’t make this stuff up ahahahhaah
Nobody sees him as a MLB CF.
Trading Hosmer should be seen as a high priority for the Padres, before the conclusion of this coming season. After that his 10 and 5 rights kick in, and they will surely be stuck with his nearly $40 million in salary after that point.
Also, and I previously mentioned this in a chat, I think the Padres should trade for Kimbrel. They can send Myers to CHW which fills their RF hole, and a decent pitching prospect. Some money may have to change hands too, but this would solve a need for both the Padres and the White Sox.
Trading Hosmer is much easier said than done. Between his 10 team no-trade list and his drop off in production a top prospect will almost certainly have to be included. However, once Freddie Freeman signs the 1B market becomes drastically different so you never know…
He’s going to be tough to move. Think Scwarber could eventually become a FT 1b, Castellanos as well.
Speaking of Castellanos.. Typical Boras misread of the market looking at more years than any chance possible for him (8). Maybe not best of years with a strike/lockout looking eminent before he had a chance to sign trying this ploy.
Does he end up with just a 1y deal now, then go back as a to be 31yo for ’23 season?
JD Matinez got 5y, but had entire offseason and 1 team with interest. Think Boras made another boo-boo here.
Boras generally sets the market, not misreads it. There’s been more than a few studies over the years on how much more his players get compared to similar players with other agents. It’s significant. He also pushes the market higher for other players.
I don’t see Castellanos getting eight years, but if he ends up with five then he wins…biggly!
Keep in mind once there’s a new CBA, historically teams spend big because they know the financial guidelines for the next five years. We’ll also see teams who will want to get some positive news out there after a lousy offseason from the lockout.
I am looking forward to the explosion of activity with free agent signings and trades that will occur in a compressed time period after a couple months of nothing.
No one wants Hosmer unless Preller throws in a top prospect. He does that often so maybe it’s possible
So WHO would take Hosmer, if they threw in a top prospect? Also expecting the Pad’s eat abunch of the salary.
If the DH becomes universal quite a lot of teams.
Red Sox would make some sense if the Padres attach Campusano to Hosmers contract and take back Bradley Jr.
Red Sox would make some sense
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I doubt. In order to entice a team into trading for Hosmer, you really need an opening at 1B. Hosmer has a 102 OPS+ with SD, and everyone has a DH that can do that.
The 4 years is the real problem. With Myers, there will always be a team that needs a RF for one year. Then it is just a question of a couple million $$$. With Hosmer, every team in BB either has a 1B as good as him, or has a prospect as good as him.
Weathers and Hostetler to Texas for a bag of peanuts
I wish we could edit these; Wethers and Hosmer; dang autocorrect
You can. You have 5 minutes after posting to do so in fact.
Ya can! That’s what the lil clock under your comment once it’s posted is.
We already have an underperforming player from the AAAA Asian leagues (Kim) we don’t need another long term contract. Pads need to do the one and two year market like the Brewers and Giants have been so good at. There will be plenty of options and the Pads can also play Kim, Cronenworth, Nola, and if he can stay healthy Abrams in Outfield. I think they have closers in house too. Team health is the biggest need/question
Kim posted a 2.1 WAR. That is almost exactly league average. His bat was below average, but his defense was outstanding.
WAR? The guy could not hit a big league fastball. Period. Yes, his defense is exceptional, but you should spend more time watching him play than scouring fake stats.
I think the Padres will need to pony-up a massive prospect package to get rid of Hosmer, like CJ Abrams and Mackenzie Gore, or pay the remaining of his salary. Hosmer has hit .264/.323/.415 with a .316 wOBA, and 99 wRC+ since joining the Padres. Colin Moran, who the Pirates non-tendered, hit .269/.331/.419 with a .321 wOBA, and 100 wRC+ since joining the Pirates. Moran actually has the higher fWAR at 1.0 to Hosmer’s .6. Heck, Asdrubal Cabrera even has a higher OPS since 2019.
Doubt Padres move Abrams.
Hes either gonna play OF or SS.
Grisham LF Abrams CF Myers RF
Or Tatis Jr LF Grisham CF Myers RF
Their most expendable prospect is Luis Campusano. If theyre trying to move Hosmer hed be the one most likely to go.
If they wait a year itd cost less to move him when Hosmers contract converts to 3 years 39 mill. In the interim they should sign a platoon partner for him.
No such thing as an expendable 22 year old catcher. No one is blocking Campusano in San Diego. All of the catchers there are expendable. Either they are terrible or they are always injured.
There is when youre trying to move a contract like Hosmers
@outinleftfield There is if you have, say, a prime Buster Posey or Joe Mauer on your roster.
Problem is Hosmer gets 10-5 rights after this year which would make it even more difficult to move him then it is now.
It seems that BTV has CJ Abrams alone with $68.3 million in positive value while Hosmer has $50.7 million negative value. Now I hate BTV as much as the next guy, but in this case they are correct and you are way off.
baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-71822/
If you hate it so much why are you citing it?
Eric Hosmer: Not the 1B Pobres fans want, but the one they deserve.
Tatis isn’t going to the outfield. They won’t get Suzuki. He’s going to the Giants. Not paying for Castellanos either. Schwarber and Hand maybe. Can see Schwarber taking a three year with less in the first year combined with an increase in the luxury tax threshold.
Trading Hosmer is next to impossible? And I’m sure that’s what many people said about Jackie Bradley Jr
Bradley Jr. is only owed $11 million through 2022. Hosmer is owed $60 million for the next 4 years. It is much easier to move a one year deal only worth $11 mil compared to a 4 year deal that averages $15 mil a year.
Imagine thinking the two are comparable
Technically true. You can get rid of anyone. But if SD made the same trade, and got Renfroe, they would have to give the equivalent of Binelas & Hamilton, plus additional prospects that equal the additional ~ $40M that Hosmer will make.
“Suzuki’s bat is hardly a sure thing — Friars fans will note the significant adjustment difficulties of KBO import Ha-Seong Kim in 2021, though the versatile infielder did provide significant value with his glove — but his career .315/.414/.541 line at Japan’s highest level (.317/.433/.539 in 2021) offers plenty to dream on.”
Maybe it’s just me, but the wording/structure of this is weird. Why reference Kim’s poor triple slash and say he made up for it with defense when saying Suzuki isn’t a sure thing, then reference Suzuki’s NPB stats?
The two aren’t related, except for the fact they played in abroad and are Asian. NPB and KBO are not the same thing, so why just compare those two players because they are asian players signed by the padres? Maybe I’m seeing something that isn’t there, but I’ve never seen MLBTR compare triple slashes of South America players because they were from South America and on the same team.
Edit: I get transitions are difficult for anyone coming from a foreign league. Why not make it a separate sentence or paragraph, rather than combining them? Again, maybe it’s me reading too much into it. But that statement seems strange in structure/wording.
The point was about the transition from a foreign league and Kim is the recent comp for the Padres. I get how it seems like I made the comparison because both are Asian — not my intention and not my best writing!
And the defense thing was just to try to give Kim his due, because he did have value even though he didn’t hit a lick.
@Jame Hicks. Thanks for the response. I figured that is what you were going for with that, I hope I didn’t come off as accusatory. I just thought that part could be taken in the wrong way with how it was written.
I would have went with the wording below, not like it matters haha. Keep up the great work everyone at MLBTR!
“Suzuki’s career .315/.414/.541 line at Japan’s highest level (.317/.433/.539 in 2021) offers plenty to dream on, although his bat is hardly a sure thing at the MLB level. Friars fans will note KBO import, Ha Seong Kim, struggled mightily with the bat in 2021 (although he made significant contributions on defense).”
The KBO is way below NPB. And NPB is closer to AAA than MLB. Any comparisons or projections are virtually worthless.
Here is a fun game, name one contract currently on the Padres roster that any team would trade for without cash involved.
I’ll wait.
The last thing the Padres need to be doing is exploring options that involve long term contracts and $$$. What kind of track history do they have that would make them think a 5 year contract to a foreign player is a good idea?
Kim was a train wreck last year. They don’t need more where that came from.
What they need is to actually get production from their own players. Wil Myers is a good enough player to endure one more year. Just get something out of him for god sake. The amount of dudes going there and underperforming is alarming.
Hopefully Melvin can fix it, or maybe he can clue ownership in on what a clown Preller is.
Kim was a league average player. Kim was a bad hitter and exceptional defensive player at multiple positions.
He was indeed exceptional on defense but he hit .202
You simply can’t put him in the lineup at that clip, Especially when it means sitting Machado, Tatis or Cronenworth todo it.
Maybe he can turn it around in year two, but as it sits its $28,000,000 basically taken out in the street and set on fire.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa and even Nick Ahmed are above Kim. Kim is a backup who plays great defense, filled in ok for Tatis when Fernando was injured.
Typical Padre fan dude hits .202 he’s league average
I agree Padres should keep Myers and Hosmer. only if the Padres by mid-season are out of contention for playoffs should they trade Myers. If playoffs are expanded, I think Padres will be in the hunt for a wild card, they may miss it, but by less than in 2021.