The Blue Jays made one of the biggest free agent signings before the start of the lockout, landing Kevin Gausman on a five-year deal. He stepped into the rotation spot vacated when reigning Cy Young award winner Robbie Ray signed with the Mariners. So while the Jays have already made a notable offseason strike, there’s certainly room for more whenever the transactions freeze comes to a close.
Adding an infielder has long been known to be a priority after Marcus Semien headed to the Rangers via free agency. That can take the form of a pickup at either third or second base, thus pushing Cavan Biggio and/or Santiago Espinal to the other position. Along with their desire for infield help, the Jays are likely to prioritize further rotation pickups and adding a high-leverage reliever, writes Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.
It’s arguable the Jays only need look for depth pickups in the starting staff. The top four of Gausman, José Berríos, Hyun-jin Ryu and Alek Manoah is among the stronger around the game. Veteran Ross Stripling looks to be the favorite for the #5 starter role at the moment. After beginning his MLB career with four consecutive sub-4.00 ERA seasons, Stripling has seen his production slip over the past two years. Going back to the start of 2020, he owns a 5.14 ERA/5.52 FIP over 150 2/3 innings with a 20.6% strikeout rate that checks in a couple points below the league average. As he has throughout his career, Stripling has continued to pound the strike zone (7.4% walk rate) but he’s been tagged for an untenable 2.2 home runs per nine innings over that stretch.
Stripling’s early-career run of success with the Dodgers probably reflects a loftier ceiling than that of most nominal #5 starters around the game, but another rotation pickup could push him into an overqualified sixth starter/swing role. The Jays also have top prospect Nate Pearson in the fold, although it remains to be seen how many innings they could reasonably expect from the righty in 2022. He was limited to just 45 2/3 frames between Toronto and Triple-A Buffalo by injuries last year. Pearson is still a highly-regarded young arm — he checked in 2nd among Jays farmhands on Baseball America’s recent organizational ranking — but it remains to be seen if the club might prefer to keep tabs on his workload by having him pitch as a multi-inning reliever next season.
That’s particularly true given the middle-of-the-road relief group the Jays are hoping to augment after the lockout. Toronto relievers ranked 16th in MLB last season in ERA (4.08), 13th in strikeout/walk rate differential (14.9 percentage points) and 12th in SIERA (3.92). Jordan Romano broke out as an excellent late-game weapon, and Toronto has already added Yimi García on a two-year free agent deal. Yet there’s still some room for a high-leverage arm among a group that also includes Tim Mayza, Adam Cimber and the talented but oft-injured Julian Merryweather.
Romano took hold of the ninth inning last season, so Toronto needn’t land a proven closer. Still, that shouldn’t automatically take them out of the running for someone like Kenley Jansen, the top remaining free agent reliever. Acquiring a veteran closer — to be clear, Jansen’s just one speculative example — would allow skipper Charlie Montoyo more flexibility to deploy Romano in a situational high-leverage role. Other notable free agent relief arms include Collin McHugh, old friend Ryan Tepera, Andrew Chafin and Joe Kelly. Potential late-inning relievers who might be attainable via trade include Lou Trivino, Cole Sulser and David Bednar.
Davidi writes that a left-handed hitting outfielder might also be on the wish list, albeit perhaps not at the priority level of some of the club’s other areas of need. Toronto’s projected regular outfield of Lourdes Gurriel Jr., George Springer and Teoscar Hernández all hit right-handed. So too does fourth outfielder Randal Grichuk. The Jays would surely like to find a taker for the nearly $21MM in guaranteed money remaining on the latter’s deal through 2023. That’ll be easier said than done, but pulling off a Grichuk trade could make the search for additional outfield help more pressing.
The Jays aren’t going to spend on a top-of-the-market outfielder given the strength of their current group. Joc Pederson and Eddie Rosario are likely to be affordable but may prefer to sign with a club offering a clearer path to everyday reps. Corey Dickerson, whom the Jays acquired alongside Cimber from the Marlins last summer, also hit the open market and is likely to be limited to one-year deals.
Dickerson hit .282/.329/.450 in 140 plate appearances with the Jays down the stretch. That’s in line with his general production over the past two seasons — high batting averages but a low walk rate and decent but unspectacular power production. His overall offensive output has checked in right around league average, by measure of wRC+, but he was a reliably productive bat for most of the early part of his career. Dickerson, who spoke glowingly of his time in Toronto as part of a wider-ranging interview with Davidi, indicated he’s heading into 2022 with a goal of rediscovering some of the extra-base impact he’d made during his time with the Rockies, Rays, Pirates and Phillies between 2013-19.
It’s not clear whether the Jays will reengage with Dickerson whenever club personnel is allowed to speak with free agents. Whatever course of action team president Mark Shapiro, general manager Ross Atkins and the rest of the front office choose, it seems they should have a fair amount of financial flexibility to address the various holes on the roster. Coming off a 91-win season that nevertheless was a touch short of the playoffs, there’s little reason not to be aggressive.
No Freddie Freeman mention? To me if he’s interested and the dollars are right it would be the game changing move where Toronto becomes a group of 5 favourites for a title. They need that scary left handed bat and people should realize Ross will be all over this. He and Vlad can split time at dh and first, everyone will be happy when they’re dominating at the top of the division.
They’re going to be winning the AL East this year or the next.
Also, Rams by 4.
Of course, the Rays, Yankees, Red Sox, and an improving Orioles team should just give them the AL East pennant right now….why even play?
Hey look, we all think our favorite clubs are going to win and don’t mean to burst your bubble but the AL East is arguably the most competitive in the American League……Each of the 5 teams but the hell out of each other for 18-19 games each season…..generally it depends on who they fare against the rest of the league.
Yeah, I really like the Jays as a title contender this year, especially with a full year of Berrios, but this thread has THE most optimistic fans I’ve seen of any team. It’s like they’re all pulling a Namath
Yanks will lay an 80-82 egg.
Nah man, the Rays are gonna MacGyver 95 wins out of two wavier claims and a minor league signee.
Bullpen isn’t that big of a especially issue if Pearson is in it. Ranked 16th last year despite being one of the worst until they traded for Cimber and Richards, kicking those bums Chatwood and Dolis to the curb.
Health from pearson and merryweather would go a long way to making that bullpen elite. However, thats a big if. Cimber and richards really solidified the pen last year, perhaps adding more arms via free agency, and making the the injury plauged arms pitch their way back into the majors is the way to go.
That’s it.
There were so many AAAA guys pitching high leverage innings for this team until the trade deadline last year. It was a mess.
Much stronger bullpen to start the year should be a big help.
Well, 16th is pretty much middle of the pack and if you think bullpens don’t matter…well many would beg to differ…..every team coming out of the lockout will be all in on acquiring every relief pitcher of note…….
The bullpen is the one part of a team you can fix on the fly mid-season without giving up top prospects, though.
Can you? I don’t think fixing a bad bullpen is that easy if a thing to do mid season.
It’s not easy in May and June unless you luck out on a waiver pickup. It’ll be especially more difficult if there’s an expanded playoff format. But it’s also hard to do in the offseason if the majority of your bullpen is locked in with no options remaining or on guaranteed contracts. You need to find the right minor league contracts and have development successes on the farm so your reinforcements can contribute instead of just washing through your roster.
They did a decent job last year adding Cimber and Richards well before the deadline. And they have added one more arm already in free agency (Garcia). They could probably use one more starter to push Stripling into the pen. Then likely just some depth type signings are needed. If they can afford to do it another top end guy awesome. But its not a glaring need.
It’s probably 5th or 6th on the list of priorities.
Thing is jays have a ton of young arms to call up as well. Everyone points to Pearson bad the obvious boon to the pen but putting Hatch into the pen where he was very very good in 20 could help if the bullpen has early season struggles
Toronto also added Trevor Richards to the bullpen last year, pretty sure he’s still with the team.
Me and my stubble will remain in Canada.
As a Jays fan, I really want to see an end to this labour dispute. I’m 40 and I’ve had a hard time finding my way back to baseball over the years after 1994 and the 20 year drought and Richardi era.
AA gave me a reason to be interested again. Vlad and Bo give me a reason to be interested again.
Give these players their due. They are the product!
Jram means Moreno is traded
Marte Means Groshans is traded.
If I was running the team, I find a way to do both deals.
Moreno, Gurriel and peices for Jram
Groshans Teo and peices for Marte.
Biggio takes LF, sign Dickerson back as 4th OF, while Grichuk becomes your 8th or 9 hole RF
You can sign Freeman to split time at 1st and DH. Boom your LHH problem is solved,
The DH spot is a bit of a problem with Springer probably needing 60 plus games there. But that lineup is Scary.
1. Marte. 2b
2. Bichette SS
3. Jram 3b
4. Vlad 1st
5. Freeman DH
6. Springer CF
7. Biggio LF
8. Grichuk RF
9. Jansen/Mcguire C
Espinal and Dickerson on the bench.
With our top 4 SP and a much improved BP (mid season and on) the Jays would be a disappointment if they didn’t at least win yhe division and a few rounds
Is that worth gutting the farm?
I say yes!!!!!
Jays are giving up too much for both those trades. Moreno has so much value now as a Top 10 overall prospect he could almost do a 1 for 1 ( a couple guys in the 12-20 range added on )
Teo and Groshans is an overpay for Marte. Plus you are making a hole to fix another. Dickerson does not come close to replacing Hernandez production. Groshans and Kirk or Biggio + a lesser piece likely gets you in the room on Marte .
I would do the Marte deal I would not give up Moreno unless its a bigger package that includes one of Clevelands young pitchers..
I want a return to the Jays teams 83-93 and we won’t get an extended competitive window like that by trading all our top prospects for a 3-4 yr window.
I like the idea of getting those players. Gurriel would be on the table as I think his contract gives him a lot of value. Hernandez and Moreno need to stay though. Only other minor leaguers I don’t want to part with are some of the higher end pitchers and Orelvis Martinez. But that list is pretty short.
Sign Suzuki and Dickerson. Trade Grichuk for anything to save some money. Add to the pitching side of the roster, either another elite bullpen arm or mid to back end starter and a decent pen arm.
That team has one more spot for position players that I think depends on the budget. Maybe it’s used on a younger player with the eye towards Moreno filling it in season? If he isn’t ready and mid-season add?
I think that would be a really good and deep team.
Sounds like a fantasy baseball team, not reality
Lots of people seem to think Freeman is the guy the Jays should get. Sure he’s great, but he’s not a good fit and they have other needs they can address much more cheaply. They’ll probably trade one of their catchers for what they need, no reason to hang on to 3 or 4 good catchers when there’s a demand out there.
I think the appeal, despite the “Canadian” aspect of Freeman, is that while he doesn’t check every box, he certainly checks a lot, and it’s only money and one of their two supplemental round picks, Where a lot of the other scenarios are exhausting Prospect Capital.
We have become used to the idea that the Jays are only going to spend a certain amount, there really is no reason that they can’t spend $230 million on payroll.
So, if you remove the economics, why wouldn’t you take him as a free agent. It would not preclude your ability to find a fifth starter, depth starters, bullpen support, or your third baseman.
Just money
Would like to see thw Jays get an impact left-handed bat in the lineup. If Guerrero really want to go back to 3B, bring Freeman in at 1st.
Or go all out and trade for Ramirez and Marte.
Vlad can’t play 3b anymore. Lol
I thought I read that he wanted to play 3b.
Vladdy probably wants to steal 40 bags this year too. He can want all he wants, he doesn’t have the body for third base.
Not anymore. He not only accepted the job he has improved a lot from his first season there.
I can see him stealing 100 bases this year and hitting 100 HRs.
The team had him working out at third in winter ball, not that far of a stretch that a slimmed down vlad could play third again, making Freddie a reality.
Bullpen, I believe Pearson is going to end up being a Reliever, too many injuries. In house options exsist to fill some holes
So….Kris Bryant?
That would be the insanely obvious move. A lot of people don’t seem to take into account that the Guardians might actually want to compete their first year as a new team. You know give their fans something to watch, and not trade Ramirez. Plus he’s still pretty cheap.
Bryant will want $160 million over 6 yrs.
That doesn’t make sense for the Jays who have most of their top prospects capable of playing 3B. And he is 30 and doesn’t play great defense
The Jays are more likely to find a shorter term deal with someone who may rebound. See Ray and Semien
i am so glad diputo signed robbie ray for that much with full no trade clause!
Ray’s contract has a full no trade clause but only in the 1st and 2nd year, he was also given an opt out clause before year 3
Probably not a popular opinion here but I’m hoping they come out of the lockout and just tinker, be opportunistic of course and see if anything falls in their lap but avoid Bryant and story and any other middle to top tier FAs still out there.
The team is super competitive to start the season but does have some questions and holes will absolutely open up. They then can use their dollars or assets mid season or at the deadline to close those holes, we really don’t know what they’re going to be.
Can Springer stay on the field, is Ryu’s second half a sign that his decline is going to be drastic, can Moreno field 3b passably, can Pearson and Merryweather stay healthy and contribute, can Biggio and Espinal be 3 WAR players, and will all games be in Toronto.
I’d like to see all of the above play out a bit and then use what’s available to fix whatever isn’t working. Just an opinion of one though, I’m optimistic about the season, if there is one
They are kind of getting to the all in point. Springer is not getting younger, Ryu is certainly not getting any better and Biggio is not going to cut it as Semien replacement.
Tinkering would be the way I go. Grab a #4 type SP for the 5 spot on a one year. It pushes Stripling to the long man and Thornton to the minors.
I’d mostly agree with this.
Adding a #5 starter and a reliever would make sense. I thought Kyle Seager was a good fit as a short term lefty bat before he retired. Can’t see them going after Freeman unless he came at a real bargain… which he won’t. Bryant/Story likely cost more than they want to spend.
Don’t see the Guardians moving Ramirez for anything more than a gigantic haul that the Jays won’t do. Same for Marte.
The wildcard here is the trade market. I don’t see any way a competing team can justifiably keep Jansen, Kirk and Moreno all at C…. Especially with a quality backup like McGuire on the roster. I think Kirk is more valuable than most people recognize and could bring back a solid IF.
I agree. The lineup is mostly made out. They need infield help. Josh Harrison and maybe even the Gregorius for Grichuk type thing. Bring back Dickerson or any of the other better LH one year outfielders. Then they’d have the ability to play matchups and the hot hand.
The only multi year deals that make sense to me are for a left handed hitting regular if the market leads them that way. I don’t like the idea of a Bryant type contract aging alongside Springer’s but for a LH bat that would profile in the top half of the lineup, they should think about it. There aren’t really LH bats likely to graduate to the majors soon and have a regular MLB role in their system. Unfortunately, the best of them this year are Freeman who is an odd positional fit, Schwarber who is also an odd positional fit, and Conforto whose market is tough to really understand though at a one year prove it deal or a buy low 3 year price, I’d be all over it. I think the media has made so much about positional needs that they’ve missed that Atkins himself stated lineup balance was going to be a priority this offseason. There just aren’t a lot of left handed hitting 3B available. But there are at other positions. I just don’t see Grichuk standing in the way of them adding Conforto, Dickerson, Pederson or whoever they like in that role. Heck, I’d even bet that Mallex Smith will get the nod over Grichuk at times in the way Dyson did last year.
Dusty
I agree on the tinkering. Lets not give up high end prospects or tie up $$ on a top FA . A SP and another RP. I would not be against Rodon on a 1 yr deal.
As for the infield- no one has mentioned this but we will have Lopez, Smith and Groshans all in AAA. Groshans is unlikely for 22 but the other 2 are. I am curious what Smith might do if there is an injury or one of Espinal or Biggio struggle.
Our SP pitching is in better shape now then the start last year and so is the pen. A healthy Springer- Hernandez not missing time at the start- and any rebound from Biggio will go a long way in replacing Semiens production. There is no rule that says one guy has to replace Semien- heck Semien likely would not replace 21 Semien.
Right now if everyone stayed reasonable healthy and there are no major regression id peg them 91-93 wins. ( With the tinkering )
I wonder if we packaged 5m , with one of Hidalgo-Lopez with Grich if we could get a RP with 2 or more yrs of control .
“heck Semien likely would not replace 21 Semien.”
Thank you – glad someone realized that 45 homers from a middle infielder isn’t just easily replaceable by Springers presence or even easily repeatable. That being said, I like their chances as much as anyone to win it all.
You’re overly fixated on homers.
Semien’s projection have him at 4.5 WAR next year, Springers at 4. Now projections are projections and I’m not trying to use them ask fact, it’s just a simple reality that they don’t need to replace Semien’s 21 production, because who can really? But collectively as a team unit they can replace that production with A healthy season from Springer taking the biggest chunk
Jay need a left handed bat and all signs point to them wanting to buy it rather than trade for it. It’s pretty clear that trading players like Moreno and Martinez is a last resort if they see it as an option at all. The only hitter that fits that mould right now is Freeman. There have been plenty of strong rumours linking him to the team. I think it is a real possibility. Vladdy was pretty horrible at third when he played there, but that was a 20 year old overweight version of what we have now. It is not out of the realm of possibility that he can become an adequate 3rd baseman. The risk is that he stinks it up and you have to move him to DH full time. Not sure why anyone would suggest that Vladdy and Freddy share the position in any kind of equal way. Freeman makes your whole infield better at first.. Vladdy is still a liability there.
If they don’t get Freeman then a play for an outfielder that hits left handed may be the correct play. That require moving around a few pieces and would probably mean losing Gurriel. If they fail to make any of those moves then I think we could see a trade for Ramirez or Marte. Though I still think Ramirez isn’t going anywhere.
Then there is the possibility of trading for a player like McNeil and signing Bryant or Story. Trading for Chapman and McNeil may also be a play. There are still a fair few options available.
I also keep hearing everyone saying that they have to replace Semien’s production. They really don’t. The run differential last year was over 150. The jays don’t need to add runs or even keep up that pace if they can prevent more runs. With one of the best projected rotations in the American League right now, and a much better bullpen, they are projected to do that. On paper the Jays are the best team in the AL East and possibly the best team in the American League. It isn’t overly optimistic to see them as favourites in the division.
Jays can trade for Stratton or Trivino at a low prospect cost, this would cover the bullpen needs.
Should the Jays require a LHRP than sign Chacin for 2+1 agreement similar to Garcia deal and save the prospect.
Finally trade for Chapman + Manaea or Bassitt..
The trade of Groshans + Gurriel + Lopez + Kloffenstein + McGuire.
Should the Jays trade for Manaea offer him an extension, and than consider trading RYu ,mid season!
Than Jays trade for Marte
The cost would be Martinez + Kirk.
Sign Dickerson.
Jays trades plus the signing of Chacin
The net cost to the Jays is a net additional $25 Million, and Jays open the season at $162 Million.
Cheaper than spending the monies on Freeman.
If the Jays trade Grichuk for an OF prospect , than Jays open the season at $152 Million, and sign Joc Pederson for 3/$12 Million.
Jays than open the season at $155 Million, and consider extending Teoscar for an additional 3 years and than do the decade long contracts for Bichette and Guerrero.
Don’t care if Jays exceed the CbT this year.
@jensan
“…trade Grichuk for an OF prospect…”. Because that’s the way it works. Trade an underperforming, dead money contract for a prospect. GM’s are continually asking to acquire players like these. Preller had to change his phone number because of the calls he was getting about Hosmer. Same thing with Rizzo being asked about Corbin.
Grichuk gets moved for an equally bad contract, or the Jays add talent, or they eat a significant chunk of the 20 million left.
Expect regression from Guerrero and the Blue Jays won’t ever win a World Series in the next 10 years, No chance.
In the alternative ,
Trade Kirk + Lopez for Winker
Sign Joc Pederson 4/$22 Million
Trade Groshans + Gurriel + Pearson + Jimenez for Chapman + Manaea
Than trade Hernandez + Biggio + Kloffenstein for Marte .
New Outfield :
Winker, Pederson, Springer, Marte, Grichuk.
Chapman, Bichette, Marte, Guerrero, sign Josh Harrison as 5th infielder
Berrios, Gausman, Manaea , Ryu, Manoah
Jansen, McGuire,
Jays add $20 Million in Salary and an upgrade a net of 9 WAR.
Only player to extend next year would be Manaea and go looking for a Pitcher to replace Ryu.
It will be interesting to see who comes back to the Toronto club in 2 years when the players have decertified the MLBPA and baseball opens up again. They have a few nice young players whose career arcs will be ruined by the work stoppage. One thing I wonder is whether in 2023 players like Vlad Jr or Bichette will be permitted to play in the minors and retain some of their skills, or whether by 2024 almost everyone will be a graduating minor leaguer.
If they really think this is a possibility, I’m sure a ton of players would be trying to go to Japan. Japan would have their pick of talent and the quality of baseball is pretty good.
As a Red Sox fan, I hope the Jays screw this up. Putting my bias aside you can’t have Stripling in your rotation in this division. The Red Sox last year pretty much at this dude’s lunch and he had to be bailed out by the incredible offense they had. I would call up Pearson because I view the #5 spot in a rotation as the developmental spot for top prospects. They should let both Biggio and Espinal play everyday and throw their money at relievers. You can’t replace Semien, but you could keep the same run differential by fixing this bullpen. This is where the Blue Jays lost games last year. So I hope they are in the Trevor Story sweepstakes and they keep Stripling as the #5. It’s less money to fix their real weakness the bullpen.
Let’s go blue jays
Toronto’s post lockout blitz
Move 1: Ramirez and Hedges and their 15.75 mill in 2022 go to Toronto for Gurriel Jr, Kirk, 2 pitching prospects and a prospect bat
Move 2: Manaea and his 1 year 10 million for 2022 for Danny Jansen and a pitching prospect. If it’s Montez instead of Manaea throw in Groshans
Move 3: Gritchuk for Gregarious (assuming Phil’s don’t get Kris Bryant, if so then to Colorado for something while eating some Salary but ideally get the vet left handed bat)
Move 4: Freeman signed to 5×30, with 40 coming as salary for 2022 and 20 for 2026. Vlad plays a few at third, freeman plays a few in a corner outfield and third and you balance 1b/dh. Between them
Move 5: Dickerson signed for 1 year 4 million as 4th outfielder
Move 6-8: 3 value bullpen signings/lottery tickets (which the jays have been known to make good on over the years….David Phelps is already on a minor league deal)
Move 9: a value signing outfielder or a good deal for Seiya Suzuki to fit that bill nicely (assuming you traded Gurriel jr)
Move 10: extend Vladdy, Bo, and Teoscar and sit back and watch this thing go
Move 11: get stripling and Thornton’s 5.4 mill off the books
Hedges and McGuire start the year as catchers until Moreno is ready to come up then you cut bait on one of the 2
This would have the jays at 220m approx for 2022 (-$5 mill if it’s Montez over Manaea) with their first competitive balance tax payment in team history and a roster that would be a favourite to win it all (IMO)
It would be like a video game:
Springer CF
Bichette SS
Vladdy 1B/DH/3B (maybe some LF?)
Freeman DH/1B/3B/LF
Ramirez 3B/2B/DH
Hernandez LF/RF/CF
Suzuki RF/CF/LF
Gregarious/Biggio/Espinol 2B/inf
Hedges/McGuire/Moreno C
Dickerson on bench
Kevin Smith on bench (assuming 26 man roster)
Biggio
Espinol
McGuire
Berrios
Gausman
Manoah
Manaea or Montez
Ryu
Pearson
TBD free agent (they also have Julian Merryweather)
Borucki
Cimber
Richards
Garcia
Mayza
Romano
And only Manaea would be qualifying offer effected so jays won’t be same spot as Mets next year with draft/luxury tax penalties.