As bullpen usage has increased in recent years, starting pitching may not be as vital to a team’s success as it used to be. Still, a team’s ability to draft and develop a player into a good starting pitcher remains important. Let’s take a look at how recently each team had a good starting pitcher that they drafted or signed as an international free agent.
First, a few ground rules. I’ll define “good starting pitcher” as at least 3 FanGraphs WAR in a season. I’ll exclude big money international signings, like the Rangers and Yu Darvish. And I will include pitchers who began a season with the team that drafted and developed them and were traded that same year. I also included players who were drafted and developed by a team and eventually signed an extension to stay there, like Clayton Kershaw.
13 different teams had a 3+ WAR starter they drafted or signed as an international free agent in 2021:
- Brewers: Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff
- White Sox: Carlos Rodon. It should be noted that Rodon did technically become a free agent after the 2020 season because the White Sox non-tendered him, but he did not ultimately sign elsewhere. If you don’t want to count Rodon for the White Sox for that reason, you have to go back to Chris Sale’s 2016 campaign to find a homegrown 3 WAR starter.
- Reds: Tyler Mahle
- Rockies: Antonio Senzatela
- Astros: Lance McCullers Jr., Luis Garcia
- Angels: Shohei Ohtani. Though the Angels did sign Ohtani as an amateur free agent in December 2017, his contract was limited due to his age. The club still paid a $20MM posting fee for Ohtani. Given that Ohtani had been a star in Japan and just about every MLB team wanted him, he’s not a testament to the Angels’ drafting and developing prowess. So if you’re seeking a more typical example of them having a homegrown 3 WAR starter, it’s Matt Shoemaker in 2016.
- Dodgers: Walker Buehler, Julio Urias, Clayton Kershaw
- Marlins: Trevor Rogers
- Twins: Jose Berrios (traded midseason)
- Mets: Jacob deGrom
- Yankees: Jordan Montgomery
- Phillies: Aaron Nola
- Giants: Logan Webb
4 more teams had their most recent 3 WAR homegrown starter in 2020 – if you are on board with my choice to prorate starting pitchers as if they played a full 162 games instead of just 60.
- Indians/Guardians: Shane Bieber, Zach Plesac, Aaron Civale. If you reject the pro-rating premise, it’s Bieber in 2019.
- Padres: Dinelson Lamet. Otherwise you have to go all the way back to Mat Latos in 2011.
- Tigers: Spencer Turnbull. Otherwise it’s Justin Verlander back in 2016.
- Braves: Ian Anderson. Otherwise it’s Mike Soroka in 2019.
4 teams had their most recent homegrown 3 WAR starter in 2019:
- Nationals: Stephen Strasburg
- Cardinals: Jack Flaherty
- Blue Jays: Marcus Stroman
- Orioles: John Means
3 teams date back to 2018 for their most recent homegrown 3 WAR starter:
- Rays: Blake Snell
- Pirates: Jameson Taillon
- Mariners: James Paxton
A look at the six remaining teams, who haven’t enjoyed a homegrown 3+ WAR starter in at least four years:
- Royals: Danny Duffy in 2017
- Athletics: Sonny Gray in 2015
- Red Sox: Clay Buchholz in 2015
- Cubs: Jeff Samardzija in 2014 (traded midseason)
- Rangers: Derek Holland in 2013
- Diamondbacks: Wade Miley in 2012
Of course, it is quite possible to win a World Series with no homegrown 3 WAR starting pitchers. Let’s see how many were on each of the last 10 World Series winners:
- 2012 Giants: Matt Cain
- 2013 Red Sox: Jon Lester
- 2014 Giants: Madison Bumgarner
- 2015 Royals: None
- 2016 Cubs: None. I didn’t for this exercise, but you may want to give a team credit for acquiring a player before he reached the Majors and developing him into a 3 WAR starter, like the Cubs did with Kyle Hendricks.
- 2017 Astros: None
- 2018 Red Sox: None
- 2019 Nationals: Stephen Strasburg
- 2020 Dodgers: Tony Gonsolin, Clayton Kershaw
- 2021 Braves: None
Some teams can make up for a lack of draft/international success on starting pitching with trades or free agent signings. While the Diamondbacks may have the longest drought here, their 2017 rotation actually had four 3+ WAR starters, none of whom they drafted: Zack Greinke, Zack Godley, Robbie Ray, and Patrick Corbin. The Cubs won a World Series in part because they signed Jon Lester and traded for Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks.
John Means for the O’s?
Mike Mussina
“2016 Cubs: None. I didn’t for this exercise, but you may want to give a team credit for acquiring a player before he reached the Majors and developing him into a 3 WAR starter, like the Cubs did with Kyle Hendricks.”
Hendricks is mentioned and not ERod?
Who is ERod?
Who is ERod???
He means ERod for the RSOX
Thanks. That was the only name I could find when I Googled it. Thank you for the clarification.
Sorry guys, I should have been more clear. I can see how my not mentioning the team could have caused confusion, my bad.
tstats – Thanks for backing me up. Yeah I’m just surprised Hendricks got an honorable mention and not the guy with the 3.0 WAR for the 2018 champions who also had a 6.1 WAR in 2019.
ERod came from the Orioles system, Buccholz should count for 2013
Hilarious that they forgot Means. Or maybe intentionally excluded. It’s hip to hate on the Os
Means had a 4.9 WAR in 2019, was ROY Runnerup and also an All-Star.
He was drafted by the Orioles on June 7, 2014 and signed by them on June 18, 2014.
Hey everyone makes mistakes, overall Tim is excellent when it comes to facts.
I think what may have tripped him up is that the Braves also drafted Means.
Not coincidentally, the two franchises that have 3 pitchers are also two of the most successful in the last decade.
the Dodgers could arguably have 4, too, if you count Dustin May (or when he’s back).
Walker Bueler and Dustin May
Successful how exactly? The ultimate prize is winning it all and teams farther down the lists have won more WS than the ones with multiple “home grown” starters. Overall it’s a bit of a nonsense stat.
While this may be true, only 1 World Series winning team in the last 10 years had more than one pitcher with an over 3 WAR season, and half of those teams had none. Evidently, acquiring successful pitchers via a trade or free agency, yields more World Series than developing drafted pitchers in this day and age.
Great article. That homegrown WS breakdown is quite surprising.
I think Turnbull is a fine pitcher, and I love the guy as a fan.. But, I can’t imagine any Tiger fan, who watches a majority of the games, would say Turnbull is better than Case Mize.
And I would argue BR’s war with Fangraphs. Both are fantastic sites for us nerds though!
Turnbull has had time, and is more polished. Its yet to be seen who has the most talent. It might be Skubal.
Very true. A good problem to have
I’m not on the Casey Mize fan wagon as of yet. His BB count is reasonable but I don’t see anything that makes me see a future ace. I do like Tarik Skubal but he has very high BB and HR count so he’s throwing too many pitches. Spencer Turnball is not HR prone but for some reason, the Tigers haven’t played defense while he’s pitching. I wish the Tigers would make a run at John Means.
The Tigers have so many IFs and extra OFs they don’t seem to be able to develop.
I’m sorry but choosing Ohtani for the Angels is a cop out. He was already a veteran in Japan and wasn’t drafted or developed by the Angels organization. Jered Weaver would be a better choice
Yeah, I can’t reconcile Ohtani when as they stated they “exclude big money international signings, like the Rangers and Yu Darvish.” Neither should be included. They were known, high-talent international free agents already playing professional baseball.
It may be a copout, but a year ago many were saying he was a flop. Many were saying he should give up pitching. When he came over people were also saying he couldn’t hit. The Angels have done a lot with Ohtani, including changing his hitting mechanics. Coming up with a system to allow him to do both is an amazing accomplishment. You may not be wrong, but you are not entirely right either.
He shouldn’t be treated any differently than any other international signing. Many many many players were not drafted.
Tim acknowledged this and said Matt Shoemaker was next chronologically.
True, but thats sort of bending his own rule in his own article.
I would be bitter too if 7 year old stats of Clay Buchholz represented my team.
Thats ok. Ohtani and Trout can win MVP’s while the Sox win championships
Rsox, it’s not like those two things are mutually exclusive.
I addressed all that, if you read it
If you prorate, Alek Manoah absolutely had 3+ WAR season in 2021.
You can’t prorate 2021. It was a 162 game season.
The point was that Manoah didnt play a whole season as he was brought up during the season (May27). 2.8 WAR is close enough
But, you can’t say, “close enough” because you’re now predicting what it would’ve been had he been promoted prior. He wasn’t a 3-WAR player, that’s it. What if he completely tanked in his first outings prior to May? He would’ve been lower, potentially.
@clipper
Well duh. That’s the same argument against the pro rated stats from the pandemic shortened season.
Where’s Dustin May?
On the IL?
Kevin Gausman or John Means?
SMH
Kevin Gausman isn’t on the Orioles that’s why he’s not on the list.
Blake Snell isn’t on the Rays, yet he’s on the list. I might be missing something.
There’s no requirement that the player still has to be on the team. Tim made it pretty clear, last homegrown starting pitcher to have a 3.0 for the team that drafted/signed him.
Great article, thanks Tim! Love this stuff as we hunker down during this lockout.
John Means: 2021 WAR: 4.0 Drafted by the Baltimore Orioles in the 11th round of the 2014 MLB June Amateur Draft from West Virginia University (Morgantown, WV).
That is BRef WAR. FA graphs had him at 2.5 WAR in 2021. But he did have 3.1WAR in 2019 according to fangraphs so either way it’s John Means and not Gausman.
Great List!!!
I’d like to see a list of each franchise’s last hitter at or above .335. That list is certainly becoming a thing of the past as .300 hitters seem to be greatly undervalued.
Your definition of “Homegrown” is lacking. Max Fried would be considered Homegrown by any measure other than not being initially drafted by the Braves, he was in their minor league system and had his first start as a Brave…to me that is “Homegrown” as well!?
Homegrown doesn’t mean adopted.
Also just to add, Fried was a 5+ WAR player in 2021.
And they must have forgot that Charlie Morton was drafted by the Braves in like 2002 and had a 4 WAR year in 2021…so what gives?
I’ll give you Fried because 100% of his development occurred with the Braves but Morton spent time with several other teams between 2002 and 2021.
Morton doesn’t make sense here as a guy with a bunch of stops in-between.
You can’t have it both ways though, Morton was drafted, came up and had his initial stint with the Braves. “Homegrown”!?
So Jake Peavy and Mat Latos are basically it for the Padres in this millennium.
that’s sad although it’s frankly plain rare in this day and age. I believe most teams concentrate on developing a position player core and plan to supplement that core when it’s good enough to compete with pitchers in fa or through trades. I believe it’s the common strategy although certainly not the only strategy for team building
Tony Gonsolin has never had a 3+ WAR season…
Proration.
Check out the stuff about pro-rating 2020
Tim, you’re missing Dallas Keuchel who had a 3.9 WAR the 2017 season for the Astros. He was homegrown, being drafted by the Astros.
It’s the most recent, they had some in 2021.
On your last 10 Championship teams you left him off for the 2017 Astros team.
It’s interesting that the Indians are the only team with 3 3 WAR homegrown starters recently — in 2020 (all were injured in 2021) — but their greatest success in their pitching factory used to come almost exclusively from trades. Kluber (32 WAR), Carrasco (20), Bauer (16 w/Indians) and Clevinger (15) were all acquired through trades. Only the talented but ultimately disappointing Danny Salazar (10 WAR) was homegrown on those pitching rich teams from several years ago.
Any news on Danny Salazar?
I forgot about Derek “peach fuzz” Holland. I thought the last great homegrown Rangers pitcher was Kenny Rogers.
The only other Ranger I can even think of being homegrown and having a 3 war season would be 2011 Alexi Ogando and I think he was 2 years removed from being an outfielder. And C.J. Wilson 2010-11 after begging the organization to become a starter. Probably the worst franchise ever at developing pitching
Every start in the 2020 playoffs for the Dodgers was started by a homegrown starter
Padres are so mediocre at developing their own players. Gore was really called the next Kershaw.
He will be
Kershaw already had his 1st Cy Young award at age 23. Not struggling in AAA.
“Let’s take a look at how recently each team had a good starting pitcher that they drafted or signed as an international free agent.”… I wonder when the last ACE the Twins drafted and developed is…?????????
How ‘bout them Pirates?
Quality article.
Cubs have Kyle Hendricks who had 3+ WAR seasons in 2017, 2018 and 2019, and also in 2020 if you prorate. Hendricks has been with the Cubs organization exclusively since A ball. If that’s not homegrown then I don’t know what is.
Otani is not home grown he came from the japanese league how could you say that?
Justin Verlander broke in, was Rookie of the Year, in 2006 not 2016.
First of all, Fried should be considered for the Braves. So should Charlie Morton, since he was raised in the Braves MiL system..
Anyways, in 2022, the Braves could theoretically have Morton, Soroka, Fried, Anderson, and Wright all who were brought up through their own MiL clubs..Or if you don’t want to include Soroka, they could stillbhave Kyle Muller, Tucker Davidson, Bryce Elder, or Spencer Strider…
The Marlins rotation will also soon be loaded with their own homegrown talent. Although, some might have been traded for early on but brought up through their system..
Tim answered this in responses above.
Go Yankees! Monty bringing it home in ‘21. Take that all you people that say Yankees buy everyone! Fiscally responsible NYY showing’ the Rays how to home grow prospects.
Detroit- “Spencer Turnbull, otherwise it’s Verlander.” UUUHHHH…ITS VERLANDER
Dallas Keuchel was homegrown and had a bWAR of 3.9 for the Astros in 2017.
BlueJays announce they just signed Mat Latos to put them over the top.
Way to go Cubs!!!
Didn’t Waino put up a 3plus win season last season for the cardinals?