The baseball world’s focus continues to fixate on the MLB lockout and today’s MLB-imposed deadline, but whenever the lockout lifts, the ensuing flurry of free-agent and trade activity has the potential to be historic. One of the most notable names among the yet-unsigned players on the market is three-time Cy Young winner and 2014 NL MVP Clayton Kershaw, who became a free agent for the first time at season’s end. The prevailing wisdom since he hit the market has been that Kershaw would either return to the Dodgers or sign with the Rangers, as Kershaw’s Dallas home is a short drive from Arlington’s Globe Life Field.
Bob Nightengale of USA Today touched on that fact in his latest MLB notebook over the weekend, writing that a former teammate of Kershaw’s expects him to either sign with the Rangers or retire. That’s just one third party’s opinion, of course, and that identifier itself is rather vague. (“Former teammate” could range from Corey Seager to Ted Lilly, after all.) It’s perhaps an anecdotal note, but any clues as to the eventual decision of a future Hall of Famer (and any shreds of offseason normalcy) are of particular intrigue.
It’s already been a huge offseason for the Rangers, who’ve signed Seager, Marcus Semien, Jon Gray and Kole Calhoun as they shift gears from an abbreviated rebuild to a clear win-now approach. Despite doling out a more than a half-billion dollars in free agent contracts, however, the Rangers still ought to have the financial wherewithal to add Kershaw.
The Rangers are projected for a payroll of roughly $127MM, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez, and they have only $80.25MM in guaranteed 2023 contracts to consider. Texas ran a $165MM payroll as recently as 2017 and, from 2014-18, averaged a $146.5MM Opening Day payroll. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News suggested multiple times in recent weeks that a Kershaw match could be in the cards, though the implication in Grant’s latest mailbag piece was that Kershaw would be their final major free-agent expenditure if he did sign (likely at an annual salary north of $20MM).
All that said, while the possibility of Kershaw changing teams is a fascinating one on which to speculate, there’s been no firm indicator that he won’t return to the Dodgers. Kershaw himself appeared on the Dan Patrick Show earlier this month and spoke broadly about the allure of playing on a perennial contender, even if it came with the difficulty of enduring repeated playoff exits (YouTube link).
Kershaw didn’t do much to tip his hand, but he did note that for the Dodgers, “the World Series is the expectation” every year. Dodger fans hoping for a reunion will surely point out the obvious: that has not been the case for the Rangers. Of course, there are broader factors at play. Kershaw noted in that interview with Patrick that he and his wife welcomed their fourth child over the winter, and proximity to his young family will naturally play a major role in Kershaw’s decision.
It’s worth noting, too, that Kershaw certainly didn’t sound like a player who had retirement on his mind.
“We have to continue to prepare like we’re going to play,” Kershaw said when asked how the lockout impacts his preparation for the season. “…I’m continuing to prepare like we’re going to start on time, but each day it just seems like we’re getting further and further from that.”
Going back home is overrated.
I wonder if he mentioned his arm injury during the interview. I am more curious to find out how healthy he is before I would worry about which team he lands with.
What’s he gonna say right before he signs with a squad? “My arm is hanging from a tendon, and no way can I pitch a full season?”
I just mean, I am more curious about his current health than I am speculation about where he will land. If he’s not healthy he won’t be landing anywhere anytime soon. That should come first. If everything had gone as planned, Spring training would be starting up right now. Shouldn’t he be healthy by now if anyone expected him to play a full season? IS his arm in bad shape? Is that why he’s not talking about it? Or is he so obviously healthy that he didn’t even feel like it needed to be mentioned? It seems like he needs to prove he’s healthy before he signs and that should have happened by now if he were truly going to be a full season asset. Talking about his landing spot when he doesn’t even update his own health in a personal interview seems like putting the cart before the horse. Don’t we need to know IF Kershaw can pitch at all before we speculate on where he will do it?
The team that he’s planning on going to will surely determine that before hand.
Go home to THE NEW YORK METS
It’s about the restraining order against you, isn’t it?
Return to the Dodgers or retire. I’d question the competitive drive of any athlete who simply wants to be near his home while pitching for a mediocre team.
Rangers just spent a ton of money on quality players. I’d say they are more than mediocre my guy.
@stevecohenMVP, they have, but they lost 102 games last year. They would have lost as many or more in 2020 when they had an even lower winning percentage. We don’t know how a full 2020 would have played out, but they were targeted for 98-104 loses. They’ve lost for four straight seasons. With all the improvements they’ve made, most models have them as somewhere in the 72 win range. Last year they weren’t mediocre. They were far worse. So saying they’re mediocre now is an improvement, but it’s also reality.
If he wants to win, then get his butt back to L.A. They contend every year. He’s a legend in L.A. The Dodgers are a historic organization. The Rangers won’t contend in 2022. If he wants to spend time with his family, then retire and spend time with his family. He’s going for the half-pregnant approach. Pick a lane. The fact he’s accepting a lower team, both competitive wise and prestige wise, is troubling. It suggests a loss of edge. I don’t want an athlete mailing it in, if indeed he does that.
My guess is he pitches and he’s back with the Dodgers. If he can’t suck it up to pitch in the “horrors” of LA, then I’d question adding him if I was in the Rangers front office.
Lord-You’re a Yankee fan and you call LA a horror show? You are a entitled Yankee. A Yankee fan who thinks NY is the end all to see all. SMH
Winslow, you need to understand what the various uses of quotes around a word can mean. In this case, it’s mocking those who think LA is a horror.
@LordD, I got your quotes. Something about the warm weather and the beach in SoCal. The media and fans aren’t as obsessed in many sports compared to places that actually have a winter.
Maybe it’s just sports news media; A Niners fan and a Giants fan have been severely attacked in the parking lots of Rams and Dodgers in the last 10 years. Probably outliers as examples of extreme fanatical behavior.
I agree with your whole post except that Kershaw has done the right to do whatever he wants. Dodgers fans will honor him no matter what.
He may just wanna do both (fam and baseball) & the only way would be to sign with the Rangers.
Astros, Mariners, A’s, Angels, Rangers
If you cannot rank the Rangers’ starting pitcher higher than third in their own weak division, then yes, I would call them mediocre until they prove otherwise.
Kudos to their ownership in making some moves to take them UP to mediocre.
All the more reason why the Rangers should and probably would make a push for Kershaw. Plus Oakland’s been signaling that they’re going to tear down once the lockout lifts so get ready to drop their ranking as soon as they sell off Montas, Bassitt, and Manaea!
The Rangers thought the same thing when they signed Alex Rodriguez and Chan Ho Park…
Spoken like an entitled Dodgers fan.
MC Tim C, silly. I’m an entitled Yankees fan!
Competitive drive? Rangers future is promising and he wants to spend time at home with his family.
Is Clayton a close personal friend of yours?
Having the opportunity to play close to home, help a team get back into contention, see your family and friends more often, pay less in taxes, and get out of the cesspool of California. Sounds pretty good if you ask me
no matter how much they spend they would not contend in upcoming season. need to gel as a team.
Lots of CA is nice. Just don’t visit the downtown areas of any big city.
For every person who prefers living in Texas, there is another who prefers living in California. Why not try to bring us all together instead of trying to divide us apart? We are one nation.
I would say both Texas and California produce some of the most exquisite looking women you will ever see in your life…and that is worth bringing us together right there.
Questioning the competitive drive of a 3x cy winner, ws champ and one the best pitchers of his generation.
I’d say Dodgers still the favorites but a good chance he goes to the Rangers. I have no issues if he decided that. He still has strong ties there and most likely lives there post playing career. Dodgers need to get more clarity on starting rotation. Only two knowns right now, Buehler and Urias. Lots of question marks, including Kershaw (if he stays and health) and Bauer.
It boils down to money. I doubt the Dodgers are willing to shovel another 30+ million a year into his bank account given his decline and health concerns. They have a lot of money on the books still. He’s still a good pitcher, and would immediately help any team who signs him, and he’s well within his right to ask for a ton of money and/or move closer to his hometown. Rangers have decided to augment their roster, signing two of the top infielders, Kole Calhoun as a DH/RF option, and Jon Gray. While they’ve been bad the last 4 years, they do have a great farm system with a lot of young talent close to breaking out. Not every team is like the Yankees or Dodgers, who can spend a ton of money and stay competitive forever. Every 3-5 years teams go through rebuilding and contending cycles. Rangers seem poised to climb out of their rebuild.
They can’t let him walk after declining to extend the QO. That’s not something smart teams do.
But if he chooses the Rangers is it letting him walk? If he chooses Rangers I don’t think it’s about money. Friedman has said Kershaw has earned the right to determine where he’ll pitch next season. If he wants to stay in LA the Dodgers will offer him a fair market deal and Kershaw will pitch for the Dodgers. It’s all up to Kershaw.
He has earned the right to determine where he’ll play next season as has every player who reaches free agency. What he has not earned the right to do is sign elsewhere while the Dodgers get no draft pick as compensation. Nothing he could have done would have changed that.
And unless another team verifiably offered him more money than whatever he ends up signing for then yes, choosing that team was indubitably about money.
Ridiculous. Kershaw is not just some free agent. He’s a first ballot HOF who was drafted by the Dodgers and has been with one team. He could have taken more money elsewhere. If he wants to play for his hometown I have no issues. And yes even if that means not getting a stupid draft pick. Get real. He’ll decide what is best for him and his family. He doesn’t owe the Dodgers anything. I don’t think the Dodgers offered him a QO out of respect for him. You’re putting too much stock in a draft pick.
@mlbdodgerfan2015…
“And yes even if that means not getting a stupid draft pick.”
Stupid? With how well your team drafts and develops? That’s a potential future ROY you just threw away! And for what?
“He doesn’t owe the Dodgers anything.”
Nor do they owe him anything.
“I don’t think the Dodgers offered him a QO out of respect for him.”
That is the type of suggestion we make fun of people for suggesting on here. Extending a player is QO is not disrespectful. Never has been, never will be. It is a contractual procedure jointly agreed upon by both the league and the MLBPA.
“You’re putting too much stock in a draft pick.”
You’re not putting enough stock into it. It HAS to be worth more than the nothing the Dodgers get by letting him walk without a QO.
God forbid a team actually allows a player some time before making a big decision. It has to be that Kershaw is staying because the Dodgers didn’t offer him a QO. That is stupid talk. Not sure if you’ve followed baseball before but most draft picks don’t amount to much. Even first round picks have a high degree of failures. Let alone a QO draft pick. That is why many teams sign players every year that have been offered QOs. They must be so scared of losing a draft pick.
“God forbid a team actually allows a player some time before making a big decision.”
Silly rabbit. The QO DOESN’T mean they aren’t allowing him time before making a big decision. He can always decline it. Then he’s free to take as long as he wants to sign with whomever he wants for as much $ as they are willing to throw at him. Only difference is they get a draft pick if that someone isn’t them and that team also loses a draft pick.
“It has to be that Kershaw is staying because the Dodgers didn’t offer him a QO.”
Yeah. No point in not offering it if he doesn’t stay.
“Not sure if you’ve followed baseball before but most draft picks don’t amount to much.”
The Dodgers’ picks do.
“Even first round picks have a high degree of failures. Let alone a QO draft pick.”
That pick has a 100% greater chance of succeeding than the nothing the Dodgers get by letting Kershaw walk without a QO.
“That is why many teams sign players every year that have been offered QOs. They must be so scared of losing a draft pick.”
Absolutely teams take the QO into account when signing a FA. Even if it doesn’t deter them from signing him entirely, they certainly don’t offer as much as they would have with no QO.
MLBDodger……Ya say that Kershaw must be staying in LA because he hasn’t signed yet. I’m not sure about Kershaw, but I’m still thinking that Freeman will resign with Atlanta. I believe that Freeman hasn’t signed yet because he’s waiting for Atlanta to come off the 6th year. I’d be willing to bet that Freeman has at least one 6-yr offer before the lockout started. He hasn’t signed yet because he wants to stay with the Braves. However, the longer he remains unsigned, the more chance the Braves take losing him, imho. Then again, Kershaw could simply still be deciding on whether he wants to retire or not, too. Either way, if he plays, it’ll be either LA or Texas, obviously.
Wrong. There is no way any team offers him anywhere close to $30mm per season nor is Kershaw asking for that. Though he’s been compensated very well, he’s never been a money guy and seemed more concerned about living up to expectations and competing at the highest level. He could have received a longer contract elsewhere if it was about money. I think a lot of truth to whether he’s worth the pay now, but I think you’re closer to $20mm per season and maybe even lower than that due to slipping performance and health.
@Lord, a little harsh, but I see what and why you’re questioning. I don’t see his competitive edge being lower simply because he’s left the Dodgers for the Rangers. I’d be more concerned about his back and the milage on his arm if I was making the decision for the Rangers.
I don’t believe he’s leaving the Dodgers unless he’s leaving to retire. That’s probably what he’s weighing in his mind. If I was in his situation, I’d value my association with the Dodgers, including being a lifetime Dodger. The pull of the family is at play, so I’d take a year off. Spend time with wife and kids, and then re-evaluate heading into 2023. He may get a recharge, both emotionally and physically.
Mediocre? What do you think the Dodgers will be this year?
Can’t see it that way. As has already been pointed out the Rangers are clearly making an effort to compete. That by itself has to mean something toward someone who wants to compete.
Also, I don’t think there always has to be a conflict between your devotion to family and to competition.
@LordD99
Nolan Ryan did it for several years
Kershaw will not be ready to start the season. Look for a mid-season return in best case. Given that, his history with the Dodgers – including medical staff, etc., prediction: He returns to Dodgers – 1 year, 10-15m with incentives. Maybe 2 year to mitigate his downside – 2/40-45?
I agree with your 2 yr deal hunch. He’s plenty familiar with staff. FO, management and staff has treated him well. I hope he stays with them.
Mets will overpay for his bad back.
deGrom
Scherzer
Kershaw
Of that trio, only Scherzer has the best chance to make 30 starts.
I always thought that the “Kershaw will sign with the Rangers because he’s from/lives there” narrative was ridiculous. Now that Bob Nightengale is pushing it I know that that is true.
And as has been said before, declining to extend the QO is not a move you make if you aren’t 110% sure he’s staying.
^^ This. ^^
Sure he’s like to spend more time with his family, but in a few years at most he’ll have all the time in the world, and his family will still be there.
Do you have kids? I ask because I do, and I think what you said is really stupid.
Players get 4-5 months a year to be with their families full-time. Not a lot of professions are afforded that luxury. They also have the luxury of having their families travel with them, particularly in the summer when most baseball is played. We Dodger fans have seen Kershaw’s wife and kids at Dodger Stadium any number of times. So a huge hardship? Hardly.
4-5?
If you’re on a playoff team you’re not done until close to November, you then get November and December to relax, January you start training and February you report early.
Offseason training can be at or near the player’s home. So even a player on a playoff team will have all of November, December, January and all or part of February to be at home. Not on a playoff team, add October, and only two teams play all the way through October. Some make it sound like playing baseball is like being in the Army on overseas deployment for years on end. Which, in the real world, people actually do. Now that’s a hardship.
Nowhere near deployment but childhood goes by so quickly. I’d never fault a guy for wanting to soak up every moment of his kids early lives. You just can’t get it back.
And as the kids start going to school and AYSO etc you also want to be there for those moments.
I’m a pretty close friend of our former play by play guy Victor Rojas and we’ve talked about this. For men who want to be fully engaged parents, baseball is tougher than the “usual” job where you are home every night.
Not faulting anyone, especially since no public decision has been made, I’m just looking at player who’s been the face of a franchise for 14 years, and is coming to the end of his storied career one place or another. I believe the Dodgers are pretty confident that he wants to finish in it LA, and not in the way he ended last season. A lot of things are in the mix. His family for sure, but also the pride he shows in his game.
For what it’s worth, during all the press he did at the Super Bowl Clayton mentioned LA and the Dodgers a good bit as if he was still a member, talked about how he was ready to get to spring training, etc.
I bet he would be swooning home living and rangers a bit if it was played in Dallas.
The whole it’s close to his home narrative is floated every time his contract has come up. It’s just to leverage the Dodgers into overpaying for a formerly awesome pitcher. That said JD will probably overpay him.
Life long dodger fan of almost 50 years.
The best Dodger pitcher in that time by far. Pedro would have been, but Tommy was a really bad GM (Delino Deshields).
Anyway he deserves to go wherever he wants.
If wants to stay the dodgers should be willing to overpay a bit to reward him for past services
If wants to leave we should give him our thanks and wish him well.
They shouldn’t overpay him a penny. He has already been paid more than a quarter of a billion dollars and he is half a decade removed from his last star season and 7 years removed from his last superstar season. And he already made a point of playing hardball for the most possible money the last time around, on top of that. Enough is enough. No way.
The Rangers spent money, but I’m not certain that’s a good ball club.
With Jung going down, how fun would it be if the Rangers signed Kyle Seager for a season to play with his brother.
He’s retired. Otherwise I’d say that’s a great idea.
How about… if Kershaw signs with the Rangers I’ll renounce everything and delete my account. And if he signs with anyone else everyone has to give up saying “Player X will sign with Team Y because he’s from there/lives there” forever. That sound fair to you?
My favorite was when some Padres fans were saying Bryce Harper would sign with them because he got married at the San Diego LDS temple.
Does Houston count as home cooking if he goes there?
Im old enough to remember Dodger fans saying it was Dodgers or bust for Kershaw and were pretty upset about any counter narrative speculation, i.e. him going to the Rangers.
It hardly matters.
yeah, coming back to home team worked so well for cole!
He want to join the Mets.
Actually my cousin is a realtor and she sold him a house in Miami so he’s probably signing with the Marlins.
My nephew sold Edgar Allen Poe’s Museum and home to Kershaw so he’s probably going to Baltimore. =))
Whatever contract he ends up getting, he won’t be worth it (since it will almost definitely be huge in terms of yearly and/or overall salary). Age 34 season and hasn’t been a star in half a decade and hasn’t been a superstar in 7 years.
Voice: I am beginning to understand why the mute button is available for trolls like you. You are fingernails on a chalkboard.
As a father with a young son I can definitely see the appeal of playing at home.
As a guy who has followed baseball for a long time, I put absolutely no stock into anything Nightengale predicts.
The biggest determining factor of Kershaw signing anywhere are his medicals.
He really hasn’t won a World Series with the Dodgers just a 40% tournament. With the current GM and Mgr calling the shots during the playoffs they won’t be winning anytime soon. How many years can you change your pitching and make God awful decisions on who is starting and relieving and really expect to win? The Rangers or Dodgers should have about the same results.
Hey, I just spotted a troll!
Oh stop the whining
Dallas bound. Book it.
who really want to go to texux?
Kershaw will anchor the staff of the 2023 world champion Rangers. In a corresponding move, longtime buddy Matthew Stafford buys a neighboring house in Highland Park and leads the Cowboys to the Superbowl.
He’s retiring a Dodger. If his rehab is going as well as expected I think Kershaw is the kind of guy that would pull the plug instead of playing too long. Either that or he resigns with the Dodgers
Kershaw has said often enough that he wants to continue playing for as long as he able to contribute. Taking him at his word, this means to me he will stop playing the moment he no longer can.
This is really hard to say as there isn’t any type of official negotiation going on. My thought is that he loves to compete for a championship. No reason to leave a franchise that spends money, and is going for it all every season. Especially to leave the Dodgers to go to a club like the Rangers (no disrespect) probably aren’t that close to competing for a World Series on paper at the present time. If the Dodgers window had closed I would think it’s possible, or if the Dodgers offer something low due to injury risk would be the only reasons why Kershaw would leave LA.
Well the window is slowly closing unless they can get more younger cheaper talent to sustain a longer run. Depending on if the Dodgers go for it or not in 2022, it’s probably their last big push for the WS. Can’t fault a guy for wanting to pitch for the hometown team, especially if he thinks his career is coming to end sooner than later.
lol
He’s a first ballot HOF.Dodgers will continue to support Clayton.If he can get paid multiple guaranteed yrs at 20-25 million a yr.He has the cities blessing and if he comes home and retires a Dodger he will be elevated into Koufax legendary status forever.