After being drafted by the Astros in 2014, J.D. Davis utterly mashed in the minors but couldn’t contribute much in his first couple of MLB seasons for Houston. From 2014 to 2018, Davis produced a wRC+ of at least 134 at each stop from Low-A up to Triple-A. Those tantalizing offensive skills were enough to get him a taste of MLB action in 2017 and 2018, playing 67 total games over those two seasons, but hitting just .194/.260/.321.
Prior to the 2019 season, the Mets took a chance on Davis, acquiring him from the Astros in the hope that his bat would eventually click in the Majors. The gamble paid off immediately, as Davis had an excellent year at the plate in 2019, hitting 22 home runs and slashing .307/.369/.527, producing a wRC+ of 137 and 2.4 fWAR over 140 games. He slipped a bit in the shortened 2020 campaign, tallying just six homers but still hitting above league average with a line of .247/.371/.389, wRC+ of 118. In 2021, he made multiple trips to the IL due to issues with his left hand, but still hit well when he was healthy, as he produced a line of .285/.384/.436 for a wRC+ of 130 in 73 games.
As the season was winding down and the Mets were clearly not going to be a factor in the postseason, Davis underwent surgery to address the hand issue, with the expectation that he would be ready to go for spring training. At the time, Davis was quoted as saying that he felt he only had a 50/50 chance of returning to the Mets in 2022. “I know there’s going to be plenty of changes up and down from the front office all the way down to here,” Davis said. “My gut feeling? I could be out of here. That’s what it’s kind of leaning towards. But there’s a possibility that I could come back. I love New York. I love the fans. I love the city. It’s a flip of the coin.”
Davis likely suspected his name to come up in trade talks due to the crowded infield situation in Queens. Robinson Cano sat out 2021 due to his PED suspension but will be returning for 2022. If Cano were to get significant playing time at second base, that could have meant Jeff McNeil or Luis Guillorme getting some time at third base with Davis. But then to complicate things further, the Mets went on a wild spending spree before the lockout, which included adding Eduardo Escobar into the second/third base jumble. If the National League were to implement the designated hitter for 2022, that could theoretically open up at-bats for someone in this group. However, the Mets also added Mark Canha and Starling Marte to their outfield, alongside Brandon Nimmo, which bumps Dominic Smith into the DH conversation, as Pete Alonso should have most of the playing time at first base. All of that would seemingly only increase the odds of Davis, or someone else, being squeezed out.
Davis has played a little bit of first base and left field in his big league career but is primarily a third baseman. Most metrics consider him a poor defender, even at his primary position, with all of DRS, UZR and OAA making heavy use of the minus sign in assessing his glovework. The addition of the DH to the NL, if it comes to fruition, should theoretically help the Mets find a taker for Davis, as it would increase the ability of some team to utilize his bat without exposing themselves to his weakness in the field.
Despite his flaws, Davis has produced 4.5 fWAR over 269 games in the last three seasons, which should give him plenty of appeal around the league. He turns 29 in April and has between three and four years’ service time, meaning he is under club control through the 2024 season, unless the new CBA makes significant changes to the previous service time structure. He’s already gone through arbitration once, as he reached Super Two status prior to last year, and earned $2.1MM in 2021. Due to his injury-hampered season, he is projected to earn a modest raise to $2.7MM for 2022, in the estimation of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. With his ability to hit, that affordable salary and years of control, he could potentially be a useful piece for any team in the league, including the Mets.
Rays would be a good place for him, since he could basically replace Wendle, if his salary is cheap enough this year.
He has good wRC+ numbers. Why is his WAR so low? I know he’s missed some time but over the last 3 seasons he’s averaging less than 1.5 WAR per season. That seems really low for a guy that supposedly hits that well.
Cant field
The article mentions games and not at bats. He pinch hit or game in/out of games early/late. Not always playing full games so the plate appearances are deceptive next to games played. Guy can rake. Can’t field. But for the life of me I can’t figure out why everyone wants dom over davis as dh. Or neither because cano is going to be dh potentially anyway.
ajrodz13355 hours ago
Rays would be a good place for him, since he could basically replace Wendle
=================================
Wendle has a career 4.6 bWAR/650 PAs, and was an AS last year. Davis has a career 0.9 bWAR/650.
In what world is Davis a replacement for Wendle?
The rays cheap world that gets the most out of all 26 spots (well the 35 that they cycle through)
Mets fans think all of their players are replaceable for all-stars. It’s a New York delusional fan thing…
LOL. Yeah, like every other teams fans are rational about their teams player value.
Rays fan here. I like Davis, but in a DH capacity. He doesn’t play 3B well enough to play that position for the Rays.
White Sox might want to take a flyer. Could be a good platoon with Gavin Sheets. Just a thought
I’ve wondered if he might be a dark horse on Seattle’s radar.
They obviously need a third baseman and an impact-bat (well, more than one), and they have the game’s most brilliant and effective infield coaches in Perry Hill.
Perhaps Davis would makes sense if they fail to land one of the known free agents, or a more established defensive third baseman such as Chapman.
Toro is better defensively at both 2B and 3B. Their bats are about even. Toro is four years younger. So, I don’t see any upgrade. Whomever we bring in needs to fill the backup spot at SS.
Davis is an established slugger. Toro is not.
Toro is the better defender, and there’s no guarantee that Davis could improve defensively (though I’m a believer in Hill’s ability to squeeze the best out of players), but I’d rather see Seattle add than do nothing.
Toro has only had 500 plate appearances in his career. That is fewer than Kelenic. He is all upside at this point. We haven’t seen what he can do at 3B or at the plate.
Unless we get a proven free agent like Story, Correa or Freeman, I think 3B is going to be Toro’s this year. I think his hitting will improve if we give him the opportunity. I am sure they anticipated Seager leaving when they traded for him. He soldiered up at 2B. Now he should be given his chance at 3B barring a blockbuster acquisition.
Established hitter > non-established hitter.
Free Agent
Trade acquisition
Toro
I think they wanted to see more from Toro last season. They may still be willing to give him more regular playing time, but without an alternative?
I think that would be plan C or D.
@stevil
The problem with that line of thought is that every established hitter was once a non-established hitter.
Wow. Very naive.
You two guys ought to do a little more homework.
Toro is a good player.
How nany teams have you seen with considerable postseason droughts bank on a team full of inexperience to end a drought?
It’s not about disliking Toro, it’s about understanding what Seattle needs and what they can bank on.
They are not going to win unless all of these inexperienced guys hit. One big bat in the lineup will not do it. It could derail their progress.
The team did not trade Graveman for Toro to have him sit. Knowing Seager and Graveman were not coming back, Dipoto went after Toro as the infield replacement. Toro only got 140 AB’s in 3 seasons in Houston. He got more than that in two months in Seattle. Now Dipoto has added Frazier knowing Toro prefers 3B. Toro hit and played good defense. Moving Toro to 3B in 2022 was the plan in the beginning. Only if they find a huge upgrade will they put him on the bench again. Give the kid a chance.
I think it was a cheap gamble in an effort to win last season, and if he held his own…one less thing to worry about in 2022. They might still be willing to give him a few months, but they they need bats and Toro is still very much a question mark.
Jerry himself stated that they’d like to move him around and get him around 400 PAs. That doesn’t sound like he was a lock for 3B.
AlienBob- I’m intrigued by Toro playing 3B or Utility. I haven’t seen enough of JD Davis to comment on his defense at the hot corner. However re: Toro’s 2B work either you didn’t see Toro play 2B under Perry Hill’s tutelage or you watched him on his one half decent night! He looked so stiff and uncomfortable there, his range was limited, he didn’t have the best throws nor cleanest transfers. He was a liability, tbh he just looked like a young 3B lost trying to play 2B at the ML level. Contrast that with how Ty France adjusted to playing his new position (in the ML) at 1B. Night and day, and it’s prob why Adam Frazier was brought in to handle 2B (and OF) for this yr.
You’re not wrong on Perry Hill tho- he is a huge asset to the ball club. If anyone can improve Toro’s bad D at 2B it’s him.
Besides If Seattle can meet their offseason plans that surely puts Toro into the Utility role. He’s not a premium bat. Yet! If the M’s can get a 3B like Chapman, maybe (wild card) Kiner-Falefa, K Bryant or convert someone like T Story then Toro surely becomes the Utility role and back-up at his natural position-3B.
Re your comment on Toro’s bat being equivalent to Davis- don’t confuse Toro’s projected offense with his actual production. He was “Jekyll and Hyde” for the M’s- amazing over the first few weeks then absolutely terrible for the 2nd month. JD Davis may not have had a good 60g in 2020 but at least Davis has proven he can produce at the ML level. The same cannot be said for Toro. IMO JD Davis would def make that lineup better- if ‘the price is right’ surely he has to be considered.
Uh, I was the one who cited Perry Hill. Given Toro’s limited experience at 2B before the acquisition, I think Hill did a good job with him and he could improve (2B or 3B). I just think a bat-first third baseman with the possibility of modest defensive improvement is a better option than a mediocre defensive third baseman without an established bat.
If push comes to shove, I think OF defense and INF offense should be prioritized. Seattle can’t really afford to gambie much.
Baseball Reference shows Davis’ fielding percentage at 3B as .955 over 1100 innings. Toro’s fielding percentage is ..970 over half as many innings. I haven’t seen Davis play. Seager’s fielding percentage was .966 over his career. Toro got off to a strong start with the bat. Kelenic finished strong. Both Toro and Kelenic are about where Seager was his first 800 AB’s. It his hard to say where they end up but I think it is too early to give up on them. Davis’s numbers are similar enough to Toro to leave me believing he isn’t a big upgrade.
You can’t look at just one stat to get an understanding of what a player offers (especially in small samples), but there are a number of questions with Toro and the gap defensively may not be what you think it is.
Seattle should be taking as little risk as possible. They’ll have enough risk spread out amongst a number of younger players, inexperienced players and rookies.
I’m not advocating for Davis specifically, though. I think Chapman or Story would be a better fit. I just think they need to prioritize offense with any infielder they bring in.
JD Davis is a definite upgrade over Toro offensively. Toro has potential but it’s still not proven and since Seattle has the longest playoff drought in all the 4 major sports, they need to do something.
The Mets aren’t giving him away either. He is a valuable asset and would fit in nicely with the Mariners but the Mets would need a good offer.
Davis is a butcher in the field , coming from a Mets fan, no range no hands & loves to double clutch on throws to 1st
Thanks for the insight- no thanks then!
As much as ‘my M’s’ need an upgrade in the lineup I just don’t see them trading away young prospects for a 3B that is a poor defender. Esp at that position.
If Seattle is interested it’s likely because they’re unable to sign Story or Bryant, the price for Chapman is too high, and Perry believes he can make a passable defender out of him.
If I wasn’t clear before, let me stress now that this wouldn’t likely be Seattle’s plan A, B, or C.
But they absolutely cannot do nothing. They need impact bats.
Fielding percentage??? What is this 1950
Forget it! He isn’t going anywhere. Guy is a born hitter.
I wouldn’t pencil Robinson Cano into the lineup yet, he’s currently slugging .325 in the Dominican Winter League. The Mets could very well have plenty of PAs for Davis out of the DH spot if they decide to just cut bait with sunk cost Cano.
And he barely even played in DoWL. Just 10 games total, and six of those games were in October, before the AAA and AA players have even started playing there.
He’s more likely to get released than he is to get meaningful playing time.
I thought Cano wasn’t even playing anymore.
I think I speak for almost all Mets fans when I say….WE WISH!! Cano is a bum & twice busted PEDs user.
For some reason it feels like he has been out of baseball for like 5 years.
Dude, he’s played TEN games in winter league and has a .300 average. You shouldn’t be reading anything into it. He’s under contract both this and next year. He’s not going anywhere unless he utterly embarrasses himself over the first month or two. You can go ahead and pencil him right in barring injury.
Mets are going to ‘cut bait’ on $50 million because of 40 at bats in Winter ball. Come on.
In the New CBA they should address these types of situations. If a player gets caught with PEDs more than once their contract should nulled.
I’m pretty sure the Mets’ commitment to Cano is $40.5M, not $50M.
I know it’s only a few games, but he doesn’t look good. He’s a singles hitter at this point (that’s about as empty a batting average as you’ll see) against pitching well below the level of what he’d be seeing in the majors, with no speed and little positional flexibility. And his games played total is because he missed a chunk of time with a back injury. The Mets dumped a ton of money into the roster to win now, but they’re going to hand a starting spot to Cano because they owe him $40M? Not buying it. I think he’ll be in Spring Training, but he’s far from a sure thing to be a Met in 2022.
‘He’s a singles hitter at this point (that’s about as empty a batting average as you’ll see)’
Dude, it’s TEN games in Winter Ball. I cannot believe you’re seriously evaluating him off of that. Guys use Winter Ball to stay in shape or get ready or tweak things or experiment with their swing. Absolutely ludicrous to diagnose him as a player off of 40+ Winter League at bats.
Thank you, Mets for taking Cano and giving the M’s Kelenic and Dunn.
If the Mets decide to release him do the Mariners still have to pay part of his salary? How does that work?
Mariners are still on the hook for money owed. In fact, Mariners paid Mets last year even though Cano was suspended and he wasn’t paid.
Mets can’t just release him without a financial settlement with Cano. That money is guaranteed. Mariners still pay part they owe. All part of the deal.
Cano is due $48M over the next two seasons of which the Mets are responsible for $40.5M; Seattle is still paying some of his contract as part of the trade. I don’t think the Mets will choose to just release Cano unless he completely tanks for the first two full months of the 2022 season. Even then, it would be tough even for Cohen to eat that much salary. It seems more likely that they trade Smith or Davis and use Cano as a DH and part time 2nd baseman. Do the Mets have an established 3rd baseman? Maybe Escobar plays 3rd and McNeil & Cano split the keystone? They are going to give Cano every possible chance to make a positive impact on the club in 2022. If not, they have more than enough bench depth to cover for a down year from Cano.
I think they’ll see what he’s got left in Spring Training, but I don’t think they’ll waste a roster spot on him if he looks done.
There are 20,000,000 reasons why Cano will be a regular in the next Mets season.
Cool, now add up all the reasons why they’re not going to let him get in the way of winning. They spent a LOT of money this winter, but they’re going to potential sabotage some success by playing a toasted Cano just because they owe him $40M? Not buying it.
Jd davis to a team for cash straight up or a player to be named is fair value !
The idea that this guy and or dom smith can land them a meaningful pitcher is just as stupid as Yankees fans proposing Miguel andujar and Clint Frazier for Juan soto ! Exactly like that!
Mets and fans should be happy just to get a player to be named for each if they don’t want the cash
Then the Mets just keep Davis and Smith. They’re actually good players so there’s no need to trade them anyway.
They should keep them ! They are much more valuable to Mets then other teams ! Like for instance reds don’t need and wouldn’t want either in a luis Castillo trade !
You don’t know that.
I know what the reds would be looking for if they trade Castillo which is debatable if they should or would ! What they don’t need is two guys like smith and Davis who have about the same control as Castillo and can’t really help the reds ! If Mets end up with Castillo it’s gonna cost a couple guys you would actually before the fact say you would never give up ! I know this bs interest in Castillo isn’t restricted to Mets , that’s not the reds only option
Again jd davis and dom smith is the new clint Frazier and Miguel andujar package of dookie
Davis and Smith are both penciled in as Cano’s backups at DH.
What an ignorant comment Noel1982.
@cosmo2
The reason might be they don’t have roster spots for everyone.
They have the roster spots for everyone. If they make no trades, one guy may be left without a clear role, but the spot will be there. So no reason to trade anyone unless the return is valuable enough.
I don’t look at 19 due to the ball. Not counting it, Davis has had a half a season that would be considered good at the plate. Given his lousy defense and increasing cost, how is he worth much to another team? If there’s a DH in the NL, he’s worth more to the Mets and if he proves himself leading up to the trade deadline, either the Mets keep him or flip him then for a solid reliever. Right now he just doesn’t in my view have much value.
Lmao maybe it is a little optimistic to think they’d get an impact pitcher for Davis or Smith, but it’s definitely not as dumb as some Yankee fans thinking they can unload their trash for Soto or deGrom.
The whole idea of teams interest in dom smith or jd davis seems purely as a reclamation project or flyer definitely not as some key need to have piece ! What do those guys usually bring in trade ? A lotto ticket minor leaguer ! I know I’m typing in a condescending tone but it fits here !
They’re not really reclamation projects. Smith is an unproven, high pedigree, young first baseman. Davis is a very good hitter but his only position is DH. That’s them.
Smith seems to have more upside because he can play first base. That said, be lacks the power normally associated with the position. Thus, the Mets might hang on to him and while no one wants others to get hurt, it may be wise to see if an injury in spring training opens up an unexpected need from another team.
Smith definitely has more of the upside bc he has an above average glove. Davis is a very good hitter who can get hot. He’s largely been a butcher at 3B, but he seemed a little better this past season. Very much a DH and pinch hitter. In regard to value, they have upside, but I’d rather keep them and trade mid-season if they are producing.
The other side to this equation is McNeil, who is probably more attractive to other teams and would bring back the most value. With Escobar able to play 2B, McNeil could be dealt. The other option is holding onto a deep bench which is evidently needed with Covid absences, putting the Mets into a decent situation. For now, I’d assume that he is going to be the starting 3B, or at least in a platoon.
I’m curious to see what McNeil would bring back. While I agree he will return more than Davis and Smith (probably combined), I’m on record saying I believe Mets fans are severely over evaluating his return potential.
Coming off a down year McNeil would not bring back what most think. Of course, that is why Mets probably won’t trade him hoping he bounces back.
Mets fans severely over evaluating his return potential? You don’t say? Like other teams fans are different? Hell front offices do this too. Nothing unique there.
He has a 1.5 rWAR in nearly 1000 PAs. Most of that from the 2019 and the jacked ball. He has value, but minimal.
His value is cash or a player to be named late and nobody really has the right to disagree with that as his value
I would rather pay off Canó, dump him and keep Davis around. Better numbers and much younger as well.
1.McNeil 2B
2.Marte CF
3.Lindor SS
4.Alonso 1B
5.Escobar 3B
6.Canha RF
7.Smith/Davis DH
8.McCann C
9.Nimmo LF
I would rather go with this mix assuming they don’t land another major bat, than to keep Canó and his PED’s around the club house!
I agree. You don’t start Cano just because he’s expensive
He gets the first shot like Hanley I. 18. With Cohen’s money, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Cano fails to produce, that they then cut bait. Initially at least though the job is his.
Switch McNeil and NimmOBP in your lineup
McNeil hits for high BA and is a contact hitter with a low SO per BB ratio. He and Marte are the perfect 1-2 punch ahead of the heart of the order. Nimmo serves as another lead off guy from the number 9 hole and with his OBP, More R for him and RBI chances for Mc, Marte, Lindor and Alonso.
To be fair to Cano, he is beloved by many young players bc he was in his prime when they were in HS/college.
Too bad those young players remember his cheating results (including $$) and not his getting caught.
Would be an okay addition to the Orioles. He could play 3b for them.
Agreed
Davis’ best position is DH. But with a $20mm commitment to Cano, the Mets best option might be moving him in a trade for pitching.
Of course, that assumes there is a 2022 season.
Keep Davis, he’s a natural hitter. Rotate him at DH and backup at 3B and LF. Trade McNeil & Smith before their trade value decreases even more. They’re stuck with Cano, at least for now. Rotate him at DH & 2B. Get a legit 4th outfielder who can play CF. Sure up the bullpen and get a mid or back end starter.
So you want to trade McNeil and keep Canó around?
I keep Canó as an expensive bench piece/ocasional starter given his PED’s scandals and suspensions and make McNeil my starting 2B while making Smith/Davis my main DH and back up LF/1B/3B options as Escobar could play 2B as well to give Mc a better atrial day off the field at DH. I’ll say keep it as is, and Focus on pitching and may one more inexpensive Bat and Super Utility Guy like Kike Hernández for example!
I don’t want to keep Cano around. I’m saying the Mets are stuck with him
They should just keep Cano as a bench bat/ play on sundays
I’m reluctant to trade Smith, especially now. We’ve seen that he can be a plus defender at first and a solid avg/power bat when you don’t mess with his positioning or mechanics. Trading now would be selling low.
The Mets need more pitching but the free agent market has thinned out They may have to trade one of their young hitters
Trade Davis to the Rockies for Kyle Freeland. Mets get another starter and Davis would probably hit some bombs in Denver
This would be SUCH a mistake. I hate when you can see the mistake coming a mile away and can’t stop it.
I’m just going to data dump now. I realize I’m in the minority, but I’d consider trading Pete for a great young starter to solidify the rotation and then sign Freeman away from the Braves. Finally, grab Zack Greinke to fill the rotation out and provide some insurance.
McNeil should be given one more shot at 2B under Showalter and Davis should be the full time DH. I would definitely be ok with trading Dom for a bullpen piece and let Cano be a bat off the bench.
I think those moves, coupled with hurting the Braves gets the Mets the division.
Keep him. I doubt the Mets will get much for him.
I’d like to see h stay, but could be a very good back-up for the Dodgers, he’s from the west coast.
This guy is underrated (when healthy). Really think a change of scenery will help him tons.
I’ve said this before. Depending on whether the rule changes, I think his best opportunity could be as a two-way player. He was a closer in college and threw in the 90s in the few chances he got with the Astros. Right now, it’s based on the previous season, but I think this could be negotiated in the CBA to give players the best opportunities to make rosters.
I agree with the guy saying Smith and Davis are not worth much. Decent pen arm or lottery ticket. Like another poster said, if you disagree, give some reasons why. In this case, give an example of a bat first 1b like either Smith or Davis fetching an exciting return in the last couple years.
Yea, positioning is the issue. If Dom could legit play left, or if Davis was an actual third baseman they’d have more value, even though Dom is a plus fielding first baseman.
The story seems to forget that while JD was “struggling” with his minor play in 2018 in Houston, he won the AAA batting title, batting .342, 80 points higher than Alonso in the same league.
The he came to the Mets in 2019 and had the highest CitiField OPS in its history. Since coming to the Mets he has the second highest batting average, the second highest SLG percentage, and the second highest OBP.
He is a no-brainer at DH. Pen him in, bat him 5th and check back in 2 years
MMO Fan Shot: J.D. Davis Should Be Mets’ DH metsmerizedonline.com/2021/12/mmo-fan-shot-j-d-dav…
A steal for 2.7 million.
He didn’t hit in Houston because he didn’t get regular playing time. He can hit, but is a first baseman/DH playing third…
Sports
I would keep Davis, he is a legit bat that will play out better than Dominic. Dominic on the other hand is a solid first baseman and should not be delegated to DH. With that said, the best case scenario is to trade Dominic and keep JD as the DH. Cano is an afterthought right now and this team just made some serious acquisitions to win, they are not going to let Cano derail that by making him the DH when Davis will provide better offense with more power. Again, the right move here is to keep Davis and send Dominic on his way so that he can play regularly and develop into the star I believe he can be. I’ve been a Met fan for over 55 years and I’ve witnessed some trades the Mets have done that are complete blunders; trading Davis would fall into that category as well.