On this date three years ago, the Reds, Mariners and Yankees reached agreement on a complex deal. Not only was it a fairly uncommon three-team trade, the deal pushed across the finish line only when the most notable player involved agreed to a three-year contract extension with his new club.
As part of that January 21, 2019 agreement, the Reds landed Sonny Gray. Cincinnati agreed to take on the right-hander’s $7.5MM salary for that season and promised him an additional $30.5MM through 2022. (The deal also included a $12.5MM club option for 2023). The Reds also landed left-handed pitching prospect Reiver Sanmartín from New York. In exchange, they sent infielder Shed Long Jr. to Seattle, who flipped their recent second-round draftee, Josh Stowers, to the Yankees.
Gray, an All-Star and AL Cy Young award finalist in 2015, was the obvious headliner of the deal. After a generally strong run in Oakland, he was sent to the Yankees at the 2017 trade deadline. Yet Gray didn’t fare as well during his year-plus in the Bronx, posting a mediocre 4.51 ERA/4.40 FIP across 195 2/3 innings. He dealt with particular struggles in the hitter-friendly confines of Yankee Stadium, managing a 6.55 ERA in home contests during his time in pinstripes.
The Reds identified Gray as a target as they neared the end of a rebuild that had landed them in the basement in the NL Central for four straight seasons. They were rewarded for that decision, as Gray immediately turned things around in his new environs. He twirled 175 1/3 frames with a 2.87 ERA during his first season with the Reds, earning his second All-Star nod and some down ballot Cy Young votes in the process. Both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference pegged Gray as the most valuable player on the team that year by Wins Above Replacement.
Gray’s excellent debut season wasn’t enough to get the Reds to the postseason, but Cincinnati did qualify for an expanded playoff the next year. His 56 innings of 3.70 ERA ball in the shortened season weren’t quite as impressive as his first-year numbers, but it was still solidly above-average output that contributed to a decent 31-29 team showing. The Reds didn’t make the playoffs over a full schedule last year, but Gray had another nice showing. The 32-year-old’s 4.19 ERA marked a bit of a step back, but a 27% strikeout rate, 47.2% ground-ball percentage and 3.85 SIERA suggest he may have been adversely affected by a poor defense behind him.
Cincinnati hasn’t had the team success they’d no doubt hoped to achieve over the past three seasons. That’s not any fault of Gray’s, though. Over 366 2/3 innings with the Reds, the Vanderbilt product has posted a 3.49 ERA/3.57 FIP, holding opposing hitters to a meager .208/.292/.345 line. Buying low after his struggles with the Yankees proved a shrewd move for former president Dick Williams, general manager Nick Krall, and the rest of the Cincinnati front office.
It remains to be seen whether Gray’s tenure with the Reds is finished. He’s still controllable for two seasons under the terms of the extension he signed at the time of the trade. The organization may be looking to cut payroll after the lockout, and Gray perhaps offers the best blend of recent productivity, availability in trade and 2022 salary (around $10.167MM) of anyone on the roster.
Whether Gray winds up dealt for a third time or opens next season in Cincinnati, the deal counts as a win for the Reds in retrospect. In fact, of the three prospects involved in the trade, Sanmartín is the only one who remains with the club that acquired him. He made his first two MLB starts during the final week of last season and could be a depth starter or long reliever for Cincinnati this year.
The other two prospects — Long and Stowers — were more well-regarded than Sanmartín at the time of the trade. Neither emerged as a long-term option in their new organizations, though. Long tallied 412 plate appearances over three years with Seattle. He hit well as a rookie but struggled between 2020-21, dealing with recurring injury issues around his right shin. Outrighted off the Mariners 40-man roster at the end of last season, the 26-year-old elected minor league free agency and has yet to sign elsewhere. Long figures to get another opportunity — even if just via minors pact — and he’s young enough to have a real chance at turning things around, but he didn’t make the kind of impact in Seattle their front office no doubt hoped he would.
Stowers, meanwhile, has yet to crack the majors. He spent two years in the New York farm system, then was traded to the Rangers last April as part of the deal that sent Rougned Odor to the Bronx. The 24-year-old outfielder (25 next month) then hit .220/.311/.466 across 351 plate appearances in Double-A. Not added to the Texas 40-man roster after the season, he’ll be eligible for selection in the Rule 5 draft once the lockout wraps up. As with Long, it’s far too early to close the books on Stowers’ career, but he’ll be available to the rest of the league for little more than an active roster spot in the coming months.
The deal also netted the Yankees the Reds’ Competitive Balance pick in the upcoming draft. New York used that selection (#38 overall) to nab left-hander T.J. Sikkema from the University of Missouri. Sikkema, who missed the entire 2021 campaign due to injury, was ranked by Baseball America as the #23 prospect in the Yankees’ system midseason. Between the lost minor league season in 2020 and last year’s injury-wrecked campaign, he’s still yet to advance to full season ball. Sikkema will be eligible for next offseason’s Rule 5 draft if not added to the New York 40-man roster, making the 2022 campaign a particularly important one for his future in the organization.
Note: This article was updated to reflect that the Yankees also acquired a Competitive Balance Selection from the Reds.
The Reds also sent their #38 pick in the next years draft to the Yankees. They picked T.J. Sikkema a LHP, who is still in A ball in the Yankees organization.
Indeed, dumb oversight on my part. Thanks for the heads up, article’s been updated.
Unfortunately, due to injury and the 2020 cancellation of minor league ball, Sikkema will not have the time or reps to prove himself to the Yankee organization before going into the Rule 5 draft.
Bottom line: Cashman, who gave up top prospect James Kaprelian for Gray, got ZERO in return in the second deal.
Sikkema isn’t Rule 5 eligible until next year. Not out of the question he gets protected if he is healthy and has a solid year in the minors.
Sonny Gray is a good pitcher. There will be a lot of interest in him from teams other than the A’s and Yankees. I could easily see the Reds trading Sonny Gray and Eugenio Suarez (along with a couple million in cash to buy down Eugenio’s contract), in return for Taylor Trammell or Kyle Lewis.
I could also see the Reds trading Sonny Gray straight up for a Dodgers’ top ten team prospect or two, maybe Eddys Leonard or Andy Pages.
It’ll be a top ten and a lotto off the top 30 with LAD
Eugenie Suarez contract is only a problem for Cincinnati or Tampa Bay. For every other team, it is not a hindrance, and with his record of performance, he is likely to bounce back. With the loss of Castellanos, a bounce back from Suarez is their best chance of making up that offence. I don’t see them trading him, and I definitely don’t see them paying for the privilege to do so.
Styme:
What you are saying should be true (well add Pittsburgh, Florida, Baltimore and Cleveland to your list), but Reds have publicly implied that they will be cutting payroll. There will be more demand for Suarez than for Moose. If they can trade Suarez without any sweeteners, and without including any cash, maybe then they can keep Sonny Gray, and re-evaluate at the trade deadline.
Excellent trade for the Reds, who knew that could happen. Sonny Gray has thrived in Cincinnati.
Surprised no story on the Rangers snagging 2 international signees.. stole one from Washington
I forgot Sanmartin was in the Gray trade. Oooof
So Yankees got stowers and sikkema out of gray, sanmartin, and shed long?
Sort of. BRef says Long went to the Yankees from the Reds then was flipped to the M’s, but I always understood it how Anthony did, as a true 3-team trade with Shed coming from the Reds who drafted him.
I would say Stowers and Sikkema for Gray and Sanmartin, but they gave up Kaprelian for Gray.
Oh man I didn’t even track it as far back as the Gray Oakland trade. Crazy how these “spiderweb” out to become so significant. Thanks for the clarification.
There are pitchers who just don’t thrive in New York’s environment. Gray reminded me of Javy Vazquez…AJ Burnett, good before, good after, But the Yankees haven’t always handed situations that well, selling really low just to get them off the roster.
@mike I do think the “can’t handle pitching in xyz city” is overblown and is sometimes more of a reflection on the team for a. Not utilizing a player properly b. Making a player fit a organizational approach that gets them away from what made them great.
Vazquez with the Yankees were some of, if not the worst seasons of his career (allstar selection excluded). But those two seasons were like half a decade apart. The fact he goes from good, to yankee, to good again should probably rest with the team.
It’s not the Yankees fault that vasquez, gray and others pitched scared here. If you saw them daily you would have seen this. These big market teams are not for everyone
Rothschild kept trying to make Sonny change his delivery and repertoire. Sonny reluctantly did as he was told and he got hit hard. When he got to the Reds, he went back to what he had always done in Oakland and he became successful again.
I take your point, but it’s also up to the Yankees to evaluate personality traits before trading for or signing a player (Pavano being an awful example). This isn’t to aggrandize the experience of playing in NY–it’s actually the opposite. But there are plenty of players (pitchers and position) who thrive here. You have to be able to shut it out.
Been years now but I recall in Newsday that him dating Alyssa Milano shows he’s ready for the big city life.
Fair point @mike. The team needs to properly evaluate players and how suitable they are for the environment. It’s not entirely on the team, too. (I don’t want to make it seem like it’s only the teams fault), we all overvalue our abilities and athletes definitely aren’t the exception. So, I’m sure players (like your example of pavano) underestimate the pressure or overestimate their ability to deal with it.
Cheers for the exchange.
It was also just one season which he’s had before. It seems like a good excuse to shift the blame from the organization to the player.
They had to sell low on them, those guys traded had absolutely zero value due to their awful seasons here
Anthony, I was the person in the subscriber chat that brought up the idea of you guys doing more of these. This is exactly the kind of article I was talking about…great work, thanks Anthony!
Wow, this well written article has only ten responses? Man? That lockout already killed the fan base? They see the 1994 writing on the wall?
Anyways what doesn’t quite make sense to me is why Grey struggled in the hitter friendly confinds of Yankee stadium as mentioned, but has had fairly decent success in the equally hitter friendly confinds that is Great American Ballpark? That is perplexing and puzzling to me? Maybe Grey went through some anxiety in New York, and only after channeling his inner Zack Grineke did he win the 2009 AL Cy Young?
Maybe the Reds are better with identifying pitcher strengths and putting them in a position to succeed? Maybe the Yankees have deficiencies when it comes to identifying talent that will excel in their system? If Gray has been solid for Oakland and Cincinnati with NY in between being poor, then the onus might just be on the Yankees coaching.
With your logic all pitchers would have struggled here, not just gray. Gray was literally scared out there daily. This environment just was not for him period
No, with his logic, some, not all pitchers, respond to the coaching there. It may be their style looks to have the pitcher adapt to their way, where another club may work with to get the most out of that particular pitchers strengths.
That’s what you got from my statement @Joseph? You couldn’t even cogently argue against the imaginary argument you placed upon me.
Iirc it was about the slider usage. Grays curveball is his better breaking ball yet the Yankees wanted him to throw more sliders and they just didn’t work.
This is correct. Yankee fans love to say that Gray was scared by the intensity of NYC. His pitch selection has changed dramatically since coming to Cincinnati. I’m pretty sure that’s the more likely explanation rather than this self-aggrandizing theory about what was going on in his head.
I hope the Mariners re-sign Shed to a minor league deal. As a utility guy, he could easily make it back to the bigs. Moore will likely be on a short leash and Frazier struggled in the second half, plus he is not favorable in the OF.
I keep getting all these spam emails about Shed plans.