2018 was a tremendous season for Andrew Benintendi. The outfielder hit 16 home runs, stole 21 bases and slashed .290/.366/.465. His walk rate and strikeout rate were both better than league average, coming in at 10.7% and 16%, respectively. His wRC+ was 123 and he was worth 4.4 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs. He was part of an utterly dominant Red Sox team that went 108-54 in the regular season and then cruised to a World Series title by going 11-3 in the postseason. To top it all off, that was just his age-23 season, suggesting that there was still time for him to soar to even greater heights.
Unfortunately, things have gone in the opposite direction since then, with his numbers slipping slightly from the heights of 2018. The following year, he hit 13 homers, stole 10 bases and slashed .266/.343/.431, for a wRC+ of 100 and 2.0 fWAR. The pandemic-shortened 2020 season was especially short for Benintendi, as a ribcage strain limited him to just 14 games. After a trade to the Royals, his 2021 season saw him bounce back to roughly his 2019 level of production. He hit 17 dingers, stole 8 bags and hit .276/.324/.442 for a wRC+ of 106 and 2.1 fWAR. That means that Benintendi has now played four full seasons, with three of them being solid campaigns of either 2.0 or 2.1 fWAR, as he also produced 2.0 fWAR in 2017.
Now Benintendi is entering his final year before reaching free agency, assuming the new CBA doesn’t drastically alter the previous service time structure. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected he’ll earn a salary of $9.3MM via arbitration. He’ll be playing for a Royals team with an uncertain short-term outlook, as their attempt to emerge out of rebuilding in 2021 came up short. They went 74-88, finishing 19 games behind the White Sox in the Central and just one game ahead of the basement-dwelling Twins. It was a relatively quiet pre-lockout offseason for them, as their biggest move so far was signing Taylor Clarke to a deal for less than $1MM. They should be able to improve by virtue of their young players continuing to develop, but it’s unclear how aggressive they will be in what could be Benintendi’s final year with the team. That leaves a wide variety of potential outcomes for him in the coming year.
If the Royals want Benintendi to stick around as they open a new competitive window, they could always offer him an extension, as they did with Michael A. Taylor in September. Taylor was headed into free agency in about a month, but agreed to a two-year extension that will keep him in KC through 2023. However, Benintendi will likely require a lengthier commitment than that, given that he is more than three years younger than Taylor and comes with a higher ceiling.
Benintendi is currently slated to reach free agency as a 28-year-old, similar to Kyle Schwarber, who was predicted by MLBTR to get a contract of $70MM over four years. They don’t produce in the same way, as Schwarber typically hits more but without much defensive contribution. However, they are still fairly analogous in terms of overall production. Over the past five years, Schwarber’s 10.8 fWAR in 593 games just barely eclipses Benintendi’s 10.1 fWAR in 585 games.
It would be something of a surprise for the Royals to give out an extension in that ballpark to Benintendi, as it would be fairly close to the four-year, $82MM extension they gave to Salvador Perez a year ago. Having close to $40MM committed to just two players would be a risky maneuver for a team that’s only rarely run a payroll over $100MM.
There’s also the possibility that Benintendi’s job in the outfield gets filled internally in the next year. The club currently has an infield mix that includes Adalberto Mondesi, Nicky Lopez, Whit Merrifield, Carlos Santana and Hunter Dozier, with prospects Bobby Witt Jr. and Nick Pratto likely to debut in 2022. That crowded mix could lead to Merrifield and Dozier getting pushed to the outfield, alongside Taylor, Kyle Isbel and Edward Olivares. Considering all those options, perhaps they’d think it best to spend their money elsewhere.
With just one year of club control remaining, Benintendi will be a logical trade candidate if the Royals struggle to compete again in 2022. With the aforementioned glut of position players, the outfield could be covered by Taylor, Isbel, Merrifield, Dozier and Olivares after his departure. If Benintendi is having another season similar to what he did in 2017, 2019 and 2021, he should garner plenty of interest at the deadline, especially given that his affordable salary will be even less onerous by midseason. If he can go a notch higher and start to resemble his 2018 production, even better.
There’s also the chance that the Royals are able to take a step forward and get into the postseason mix, especially considering that the new CBA is expected to include an expanded postseason. A player like Benintendi could certainly be useful in a postseason chase, especially given his experience. If he were to stick on the Royals roster until the end of 2022 season, there’s a chance he could be a candidate for a qualifying offer, depending on how his season went. A one-year contract around $19MM or so could perhaps be a bit high for a 2-win player, but Benintendi has shown he is capable of more. Considering he will be hitting free agency at a young age, he would likely be inclined to turn down the QO and try to secure himself a long-term deal. Of course, that’s dependent on a healthy and productive season in 2022.
However, there is also the great unknown of the next CBA. There’s a chance that the qualifying offer system is scrapped or somehow altered in a way that would change all of these calculations for Benintendi and the Royals. There’s also the chance that Benintendi’s free agency trajectory is altered by the new CBA. It was reported back in August that one of the proposals made by MLB involved altering the free agency rules to be based on age instead of service time. Under this proposed structure, players would reach free agency at age 29 1/2, as opposed to the previous system of accruing six years of service time. Benintendi was born July 6th, 1994, meaning he wouldn’t reach 29 1/2 years of age until 2024. (July 1st was proposed as the cutoff date, meaning Benintendi would just miss.) The MLBPA reportedly wanted nothing to do with this proposal, but the course of the negotiations is difficult to predict at the moment. In a prolonged standoff, resolution will likely require a bit of compromise on both sides. It’s impossible to know which items will wind up back on the table as part of a larger deal.
There are a great many unknowns for baseball in 2022. We don’t know when the lockout will end, if a full season will be played or what the rules will be. For Benintendi and the Royals, there are even more questions remaining to be answered.
Royals won that trade with the Red Sox.
Benintendi is a bit of an enigma, though. He seems super talented but I don’t think he will ever reach his early career production again. Outside of injuries I don’t see what his problem is. He’s basically a hair above a league average hitter when he’s healthy enough to play. He’s a year away from free agency and I see him as a $10 million AAV player at the most. He should get 3 years and $30 million tops. These comparisons to Schwarber and $70 million blow my mind. Any team that does that will be making a mistake. Schwarber can absolutely carry a team for weeks on end. Benintendi will never do that and he spends more time on the injured list. He’s a respectable player but I wouldn’t call him particularly good at anything.
He just won a gold glove didn’t he?
After putting on an Alex Gordon mask and superimposing a number four on his jersey. Yes he did and I’m so glad that left-field still has a gold glove caliber player.
@hammer
Are you referring to the same Schwarber that was non tendered a year ago? Or the Schwarber that played half a season in 2021? Never mind, they are one and the same. Hope he carries your team for what he’s projected at.
@stymee: I wouldn’t want to pay Schwarber the $70 million projection. I would just much rather have him over Benintendi. Schwarber has had a couple bad years but also some really great ones. There is at least a chance Schwarber will be a huge difference maker and that can’t be said about Benintendi. The players like Schwarber who can go on these 2-3 week insane power surges can really make a huge difference for teams even if they slump other times. Look at how the Braves won it all last year. It was Schwarberesque hot streaks from Eddie Rosario and Jorge Soler. Schwarber is very capable of putting streaks like that together several times a season. I can never imagine Benintendi ever hitting like that for more than a game or 2. Benintendi is plenty serviceable and he’s not a hole in your lineup. Just not being a hole in the lineup isn’t worth anywhere near $70 million to me. Give me the guy who has the upside to hit 15 home runs in a month over an injury prone league average hitter anyway.
What blows my mind is that you think Kyle Schwarber is worth more. Neither guy is worth a multi year deal as Schwarber hasn’t done much since his breakout in the World Series for the Cubs. He had a couple of good runs but it ends there. The dude is a defensive liability anywhere on the field and his bat disappears for long stretches at a time. I’d take Benintendi at least you know his glove is solid.
Not too mention Schwarber spends a good chunk of every season injured. Benintendi is by far the better bet.
Benintendi was unfortunately rushed through the minors. That’s another thing he and Schwarber have in common.
Age based FA is ridiculous and the union will never let it happen. The players that always hit FA at an early age are the players that always set the bar higher for contracts. Not to mention the arbitration raises players like Stanton, Machado and Harper would have gotten with 2-3 years of additional control. Machado alone would probably have approached $40m with 3 extra years. Doubtful players would ever agree to 3 additional rookie contracts. It will never happen.
How? They gave up Khalil Lee who has massive upside and 6 years team control to get Andrew when they aren’t in playoff contention.
“massive” is a stretch. the guy profiles as a 40 grade hitter with average to above average pop.. Has a good arm and average+ defense. Decent, sure, massive? Not likely
Khalil Lee looked absolutely major league ready when I watched him play against Lehigh Valley last year. The kid looked nothing like the player who struggled so badly his first time up.
I saw him toward the end of the minor league season and what struck me the most was his hustle. He just looked like a player trying to get noticed who wanted another shot at the highest level. Truth be told, his effort was the polar opposite of the Phil’s Moniak.
With any kind of decent spring and continued effort, he could stick as the 4th outfielder when the team goes north. Heck, he might even push Nimmo for at bats, which could make him (Nimmo) a valuable trade chip. He looked that good.
Hopefully with the DH in the NL, they can give Lee some at bats without taking from Nimmo. Go look at nimmo’s stats and compare him to say….Byron Buxton. No joke. Go look. Nimmo is maybe the most underrated, under appreciated offensive player in baseball because of his injury history. He is sneaky good with elite on base skills. If Nimmo is healthy to play, he should be playing everyday. I’d rather rotate out the two older free agent outfielders we signed this off season than Nimmo
Lee strikes out ALOT…..
If compared to the only guy Boston acquired to appear in the majors last year.. The hapless Cordero, then yes.. thing is, Boston received Winckowski, who will probably end up as a swingman/middle reliever type at the MLB level and show up in 2022, then 3 others who are very young. It was about building up the farm system and not moving Benny for Cordero alone.
“Kansas City won that trade”.
KC Win Pct 2020 .433 vs 2021 .457, Benintendi;s 2.4 WAR didn’t do much to help them in the win department. Now a look at what they gave up:
–Khalil Lee: 6th ranked prospect in Mets minors (14 hrs, .951 ops at AAA)
–Josh Winckowski: 20th ranked prospect in Red Sox minors (3.94 ERA, 3.06 k/w at AAA and AA)
–Luis De La Rosa: Unranked, only 19yo (3.04 ERA, 2.33 k/w at Rookie lvl)
It far too early to tell, but considering Benintendi didn’t do much to help Royals improve and they only have one more year of control, he would have to do a lot this year to be able to say “Royals Won this Trade”.
Also, before you say “Cordero . . .” Parts of a trade that don’t work do not invalidate the rest of the trade. If any one of these players turns into a productive Major Leaguer, the trade should be considered a Loss for KC, due to the fact a productive young, cheap player with 6 years of control far outweighs 2 years.
A lot of this was also predicated on wanting Verdugo to play LF. They had already signed Renfroe to play RF. And while Renfroe and Verdugo are both good gloves, neither can play CF for any extended period.
Rumor, not sure how you say the Royals win that trade when it’s only one year in, the Sox went the league finals in part because his defacto replacement out performed him at half the salary. AB will never be forgotten for that catch but otherwise disappointed in Boston. I would have traded him one year earlier but am glad he’s gone.
He’s not worth 80 million/4 years he’s not that good
Benintendi is the epitome of mediocre.
Wasn’t he being hyped as a “once-in-a-generation talent” at one point?
Cohn Joppolella
Wasn’t he being hyped as a “once-in-a-generation talent” at one point?
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No, never. In his first full year, there were probably at least 20 players in the league that he would never be as good as. Starting with maybe 2013, there were never going to be a once-in-a-generation player outside of Trout.
A career OPS+ of 107 says otherwise but let’s ignore the facts, right? Many teams would be happy with an OFer with a consistent 2.0 fWAR floor and not have to pay superstar money.
Where did “once-in . . .” quote come from? College? Certainly wasn’t Boston.
The Red Sox gave up too early on Benintendi, and the next few years will show how they underrated his contributions on the field. I would take him over the moribund Hunter Renfroe, who died at the plate in the post season. Benintendi’s bat and glove, where clear plusses, versus Renfroe, who is clearly a -WAR player.
Boston received 5 players for Beni, and they received another 2 prospects for Renfroe all for less than what Beni would have cost. Beni walks after next year, but the players the Red Sox received have years of controllability. Beni was easily replaced by Renfroe, and Renfroe will easily replaced by some FA after the lockout while the prospects could net additional value.
Boston got 5 players 2 from the mets and 3 from the Royals I’d say they did ok for a player they didn’t have room for, and whether we think hes worth 80 over 4, thats the value for what he provides
I see the Royals offering him 5/70.
Dude was so dirty in his Golden Spikes season Arkansas was must watch.
I don’t see the Royals extending Benintendi at any point in the upcoming season unless he’s willing to take a below market deal. He is a slightly above average OF and nothing more. He’s not a player that moves the needle much in either direction or puts you over the top. He’s a nice piece of the puzzle for sure, but he’s an $8M-$10M player per year. If the Royals can lock him up for 4/$40M then it might be worth the gamble but I assume he’ll be looking for at least 4/$60 if not more than that. They should either trade him at the deadline or if they are in the playoff hunt, keep him for the season and let him walk at the end of the year. He’s not worth tendering a QO offer to in my opinion. Even his best season in Boston was somewhat underwhelming compared to the other players on the team.
Benintende is very replaceable by someone at league minimum wage. Ok, he’s a nice player. But you need more production from a corner outfield spot. He produces as a 4th outfielder on true contender. .275/15/70 with 10 steals? Statistically, that’s Kevin Pillar or Odubel Herrera, not a 20 million dollar man.
If the Royals don’t want him past ’22, I’d gladly take him to man left field in Pittsburgh.
Starving Pirates fan-
Pittsburg won 90+ games in 2013 and 2015, but otherwise has had only 4 seasons above .500 in the last 30 years!
I wonder why the ownership don’t just sell the team and ride off into the sunset with their millions. If the new owners move the team to a city that would support it better then maybe the Pirates could be more competitive. Nashville Pirates…Riverside Pirates….Orlando Pirates…..Charlotte Pirates
I would change the name though Nashville Guitarists….Riverside Riots….Orlando Olafs….Charlotte Bankers
would like to see him in Philly. is his CF play passable?
In short, no, even adjusting for moving from Kauffman to CBP. He is an above-average LF, but the eye test tells me he’d provide negative defensive value in Philly’s CF. This is corroborated–to the extent possible given limited data–by his CF experience in Boston. I’ll allow, though, I”ve been spoiled by years of Alex Gordon in LF and Michael A. Taylor’s GG in CF last year (with the likes of Lorenzo Cain before him).
That’s fair. I just ask because CF should be a harder get than LF. I’ not concerned about negative value as much as how much. Chances are whoever comes in won’t be a stellar CF anyways, so if Benintendi can be better than Odubel Herrera (he should hit better) than that’s an upgrade.
My family in Massachusetts loved this guy.They wore his Jersey at the cape during vacation.Serious fall from grace but last yr wasn’t bad at all.He quit tring to pull everything and is spraying seeds again.He’s not the best outfielder on defense but he hussles.Redsox totally gave up on him and I think it was a mistake.
“Red Sox totally game up on him and I think it was a mistake”
Why? Red Sox got 5 prospects for trading him, and got Verdugo, Kiki and Renfroe to replace him. All three put up better numbers and cost less.
Red Sox fans will have to hear the same thing about Renfroe all year. Yet they still find a way to win.
Those prospects better pan out for Boston because if they don’t, this will go as one of those trades Red Sox fans will hear about for awhile. JBJ can’t hit water falling off a boat and as a lot of people are saying Renfroe will regress but not to JBJ levels and JBJ gets paid more.
So you think the experiment that was Hunter Renfroe, was a plus??? REALLY??? He who completely tanked in the postseason. His zero contributions, left a huge hole, that the Astros gladly attacked, to win that series.
Benny is a very good player; Solid. ‘Sox had better shot at beating ‘stros, with him in the OF, with Verdugo and Kike.
Interesting article but I’m not a full believer in fWAR stat. Schwarber and Benintendi are comparable by that stat but not at all in real life or salaries. Other typical information should have been added with this assessment for a better comparison and analysis of any player.
Benintendi is a solid two way player but his best year was probably 2018. At his young age there is a decent possibility he has a career year and improved which team will be looking for in his future production.
Decent player, maybe he re-discovered something in KC. But even in this last season, his OPS+ was only 104. That’s not particularly high for a LF. JBJ had a 101 from 2015-2020, and some RS fans acted like he couldn’t hit the ball at all.
Atrocious trade for Boston – inexcusable. The Sox supposed organizational shift to acquiring prospects is smoke-and-mirrors. There’s a lack of accountability that comes with unfounded optimism. Don’t spill the kool-aid, Chaim.
But Red Sox made ALCS. Whats inexcusable about it? They are competing while still being able to stocking a farm system that was terrible. MLB.com called Red Sox the most improved Farm System in the majors (search: here are the 5 most improved farm systems mlb.com, Dec 2021)
ALCS Visit + Vastly Improved Farm System = Success for any team that was in such bad shape as Red Sox were coming out of 2019 season.
The Red Sox were in bad shape in 2019 because their manager skipped Spring Training. They moved Benni for nothing – I find that puzzling. I’m not appeased by being told the acquired prospects are worthy of praise. I enjoyed watching AB.
2019 can’t all be blamed on Cora. He did not play one inning on the field.
Anything the Red Sox do will be horrible in your eyes. That’s been proven over the last two years on your posts. And that’s okay your opinion is respected.
But the facts are benintendi was an extra guy who you knew what you would get.. and that’s average. Why not dump average before he gets paid for Five Guys? I think it was a great move. That’s my opinion.
I hold my team accountable. I’m not one for blind faith. I don’t like the direction Bloom is taking – at all.
Another reminder that the idea, “all young players will continue to improve”, narrative is wrong. Peaked at 23.
1984wasntamanual
Another reminder that the idea, “all young players will continue to improve”
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There is actually some interesting science behind this. Part of what scouts look at is projectibility. I used to try this myself, figuring how much gain a rookie would make from having one year of experience, plus how much gain he would make by being more physically mature, maybe putting on ten pounds of muscle in the off-season.
In Benni’s case, the scouting reports mentioned that he had already peaked physically. At 5’9″, he wasn’t going to put on any more muscle. In other words, he wasn’t a 180 pound kid that was going to grow into a 190 pound frame. he was already there. So him peaking at age 23 doesn’t surprise me.
It might also explain why he only had 570 minor league ABs.
Does the scouting report factor in how hard they work ?
I’m thinking a 180 pound 23 yo can easily make himself 190 if he wants to do the work. What’s natural should be just the start point for a professional athlete.
If you are peaking at anything at 23. Chances are you aren’t putting enough effort into getting better.
foppert
Does the scouting report factor in how hard they work ?
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Probably, but I doubt that has a huge influence. If you have a choice between two identical players, at the same age, and one if 5’9″ and 195, and the other is 6’2″ and 195, the taller guy has more potential to add muscle.
For sure. The 5’9” guy has to out work him. Plenty do. I’d take the 5’9” guy if it was a longer team situation and there was a clear work ethic difference. I’m a massive fan of guys and gals who get past more naturally talented rivals by being more dedicated. Long live the hard working underdog.
Team should be term.
“all” young players will continue to improve? Who says that? I’ll agree with “most” or “usually” but “all”. You created a fake quote that no one has ever said.
He’s a decent player, and young enough to still have a higher peak. But last year’s numbers look like Hosmer numbers….OK, but not enough to set the heart beating and certainly not enough for a rational GM to be spending 15-20M per year over the long term.
Benintendi was the player I wanted the Yankees to get instead of Gallo. I guess KC demands were too high.
Benitendi is such an interesting case…as someone stated earlier, he’s a bit of an enigma. I think he will continue posting fractionally above solid offense, and gold glove capable defense. He’s a solid piece to include on your team, but not for numbers that would equal what Schwarber will get. He’s more of a 4 year/$50 million guy. I just don’t know if the Royals will feel that’s a worthy investment, if they’re still 2-3 years away from contending (I think it’ll be that long, with Detroit and CHW taking those spots in the AL Central in that time frame). I think they flip at the trade deadline, and try to make up some of the prospects they lost in getting him. Unless they push for a wild card this coming season….then they hold.
He’ll be traded mid-season.
Beni still got plenty of time. He did hit for a .276 BA and 17 Hr which is not that bad considering a Royal team that is starting to put the pieces together to compete again! There should be room for him even with the promotion of those two prospects.
1.Merrifield CF
2.Witt Jr. SS
3.Mondesi 3B
4.Perez C
5.Santana 1B
6.Lopez 2B
7.Benintendi LF
8.Dorzier DH
9.Olivares/Pratto RF
That is still a talented lineup if Mondesi can stay healthy and Santana can return to form. Also, If the young SP Staff can take the next step as well!
1.Singer
2.Keller
3.Hernández
4.Bulbic
5.Lynch/Minor
Too bad there’s not an edit button!
I’ll say maybe Merrifield in RF and a combination of Pratto/Taylor/Olivares in CF with Beni in LF and Dorzier as the main DH.
Pratto is a first baseman and has never played in the outfield. why do you have him in the outfield?
It’s easier to hit when you know what’s coming. What, did you think the Astros were the only team to figure out how to use video to steal signs? I’m not saying the Sox and others were wearing buzzers and banging on trash cans like the Strohs; but it’s certainly naive for anyone to think they were the only ones cheating.
Agree. No one likes to play fair now a days!
Benintendi is never going to hit for big power but he is a solid Alex Gordon-type player. Plays good defense and will hit 15-20 HR’s. Not every player is going to be a superstar.
Interesting comp. Gordon had a impressive peak between 2011 and 2014, but otherwise was fairly mediocre.
His 2021 season is what he is. A good, better than average but not great OF. He’s a #6-7 hitter on a good team or a #2 hitter on a bad team.
If I was KC I would look at trading Merrifield for some pitching help. He is their best player but can be replaced if the prospects perform as advertised. He has trade value and it is doubtful that he will be signed to a big extension due to his age and the amount of money with someone that produces as he does would get on the open market.
The Royals don’t have ANYONE as versatile in the minors that can replace Merrifield. There’s no player that can play every position though they have never played him at Catcher because they don’t need to and that’s his least favorite position.