Thanks to the year-round work of people like Ben Badler over at Baseball America, we have a pretty clear sense already of how the international signing period has kicked off. Although this is technically an 11-month period, many teams will be mostly done with their international signings after today.
Of course, that’s largely because there’s a cap on how much each team can spend. Because teams are limited to their league-allotted international spending pool, we end up with a fairly egalitarian distribution of prospects to the 30 MLB teams. That said, there are still different approaches.
The Nationals, for instance, in typical Nationals fashion, identified a star and did everything in their power to sign him. They’ll end up with one of the smaller classes of international free agents in the league, but they got their guy in Cuban outfielder Cristhian Vaquero. Still, though they spent the bulk of their money on Vaquero, they spread around the remainder, currently with a list of ten new players for their system.
On the other end of the spectrum, the Orioles have continued to spread their money around with large classes of international signees. They have more than 20 new farmhands as of today, headlined by the 18th-ranked prospect of this class (per Baseball America), outfielder Braylin Tavera out of the Dominican Republic.
Of course, volume in this case presupposes foregoing a certain degree of quality. Or at least, it would, if scouting were a linear and objective process (it absolutely is not). The frustrating truth is: What we can’t know about the future of these players far outweighs what we do know.
Still, of the players who sign today, among them are future superstars. For example, let’s go back to 2018, when the Blue Jays signed Orelvis Martinez for $3.5MM, now one of their top prospects who is quickly approaching the Majors. The Dodgers signed catching prospect Diego Cartaya, whose presence made the trade of Keibert Ruiz all the more palatable. Ruiz, of course, was the centerpiece of the deal that brought Max Scherzer to Los Angeles at the trade deadline. Ruiz himself was part of the Dodgers’ international signing class in 2014.
Other future top prospects joined their current clubs on that 2018 signing day as well, players like catcher Francisco Alvarez of the Mets, who signed for $2.7MM, and Marco Luciano, signed by the Giants for $2.6MM.
The most impact doesn’t always come from the top of the class, of course, as Ronald Acuna Jr. continually reminds us. He signed with the Braves for $100K on signing day back in 2014. Juan Soto signed with the Nationals the next year for $1.5MM, a significant, but hardly groundbreaking sum.
The point is a simple one, perhaps an obvious one: today marks an important day for the game of baseball and its future stars, one that will undoubtedly change the sport, even if we can’t see exactly how.
Why Bloom take 2 more SS?? No one pitcher!! Now Boston have like 4 or 5 SS
Best available talent.
So you’d want him to pass on the next Wander Franco for a mediocre pitcher?
SS’s are the most athletic and can move to pretty much any position, and have the most value in trades.
Why mediocre pitcher?? The next Max or Kershaw!!
Yeah this was a horrific take.
Pay better attention in English class youngster.
As these kids grow, they may move to different positions like 3B or OF. They have signed at least one pitcher so far.
Because you don’t really see too much standout pitching from these kinds of guys, between the age and lack of experience, to say nothing of how difficult it is to identify good pitching at this age anyway beyond velocity. For example, with MLB Pipeline, out of their top 50, there’s a whopping two pitchers.
Plus, if you really think you can pick out the next Kershaw with how far they likely are from the majors and all the different ways their development can go, you’re nuts.
RobM is correct. No team drafts, or signs, for need at this level. They all go for the best available talent. Why sign a pitcher who might be a 40 or 45 FV, when a SS that might be a 55 FV is available. That SS has a better chance to bring back a better pitcher in trade, than one they passed up.
Every prospect is a SS, C, CF or P. Miguel Sano was signed as a SS. Don’t get hung up on what position a 16 year old plays. It’s not uncommon for guys to sign as a SS or C and end up a SP
Agents have their best prospects play SS or CF regardless if they are expected to stay at the position as they age and grow. Makes sense as it’s hard to get a team excited about a 16 year old kid that’s already presumably limited to first base.
Chaim is a strong believer in the defensive shift.
Success rate for high bonus international pitchers is poor.
Hitters are easier to project and less of an injury risk
Most of these guys are 16 years old. They won’t sniff the majors for seven years. The majority of teams pretty much turn over their entire roster in that time frame.
There probably isn’t a such thing as too much of anything at the age of 16.If you spend a high draft pick on a 21 year old college SS, when you already had a ML SS, then maybe you’d have an issue.
It’ll be 5+ years before either of these guys are ready for the show. And Encarnacion is already 6’2″ and 190. Decent chance he moves off of SS.
There are likely future superstars, but none mentioned are guaranteed. This is the riskiest pool of players as many of these kids come to agreement a year or two prior.
Acuna is a great example of why this set up is ridiculous. Sure some times teams will hit on a top rated international and top dollars will be worth it.
Acuna signs for 100k, by the time he was 18 he was already holding his own in the minors, have to assume had he been American he would have been a top 10 pick with a huge signing bonus.
drafting 16 year old is a complete crapshoot and is typically only going to be a huge waste of money or a massive bargain.
if he was thought to be a top 10 pick calibre player when he signed he would have gotten well more than 100K.
You don’t get it. That’s the difference 2 years makes when comparing kids. So you missed the point
Two years did make a difference – which is why you’re wrong. Acuña wasn’t a guy who was regarded that high until after he signed with Atlanta.
I think the point @Dustylambchops is trying to make is that assigning values to players is even more of a crapshoot when they are 16 than when they are 18 (especially given disparities in available competition for foreign players). And even more so when many of these signings are agreed upon, but not official ,when the players are younger than 16, sometimes only 13 or 14.
And he thinks this high degree of uncertainty makes the international signing system “ridiculous”, which can frequently result in low signing bonuses for players who turn out to be great while handing out large bonuses to players who don’t pan out.
Of course, that is also the case when drafting North American players out of high school or college. I’m not sure how different the correlation is between signing bonuses and MLB success at the international level compared to the Rule 4 draft. Maybe it is ridiculously worse, maybe not.
0 for 2 darkside
at least he doesn’t need someone else to better articulate his own points, which is clearly what you’ve got here.
Uncertainty does make things challenging. The shadiness that goes on behind the scenes is what makes this really bad.
the point @Dustylambchops is trying to make is that assigning values to players is even more of a crapshoot when they are 16 than when they are 18
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Then it is not really much of a point then. I don’t think anyone denies that signing kids is a gamble. College kids and HS kids are a gamble. Signing Suzuki will be a gamble. Signing Scherzer is a gamble.
Well yes. It’s difficult to project development in 18-20 year-olds, so it’s obviously harder for 16 year-olds. But what else is there to base a decision on who to sign other than ranking per a scouting report? It is a crapshoot, but it’s a crapshoot for everyone.
But, Darkside is correct. The scouting report for Acuna, at age 16 wasn’t exceptional if he could be signed for $100K. By age 18, his development had accelerated to the point that he became much more highly regarded.
It sounds like @Dustyslambchops23 is saying 16 year-olds shouldn’t be evaluated, but that sounds naïve. Or maybe it’s that 16 year-olds shouldn’t be signed. But that penalized teams that projected development better than other teams. And it would prevent 16 year-olds from getting the professional development assistance for them to become ML players.
Not sure Braves fans, of which I am not one BTW, would have liked it if Acuna couldn’t be signed until age 18, when everyone and his brother was more aware of his potential.
These kids agree to deals at age 13, 14, and 15 years old. Once a deal is agreed to the players train out of the eyes of scouts.
Maybe Acuna locked up early or he was a late Bloomer and there was little money left over.
Why Boston take 2 more SS? No one pitcher
In my head, you’re answering your own question.
Did you not read the responses to your first post? Multiple responses tell you exactly why.
All the good international players are SS or CF. That’s just how it works. Most of them will move positions almost right away when they get stateside.
Braylin Tavera is sixteen years old. Why aren’t international signings held to the same limits as kids playing in the US?
If this were China or India and Nike was drafting kids to make shoes, I can only imagine the Child Labor and Human Rights critics going nuts.
It’s a ridiculous system. As I posted elsewhere, let them sign at 16 to a MLB affiliated league in their country. They play for two years, then enter the draft.
Undrafted players can be signed as FAs or return to their league for another year or two and reenter the draft.
Their trainers (the real winners in this system) will lose out the most.
sign at 16 to a MLB affiliated league in their country. They play for two years, then enter the draft.
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Why would a team want to sign a kid and then have to draft him? The RS aren’t going to sign Encarnacion for $1.2M, and if he is successful, watch the Orioles draft him.
it’s called a contract
Rick Pernell:
It’s a good point that I am sympathetic to, but those two examples aren’t really comparable. 16 year-old kids making shoes are being exploited to a far greater extent than athletes are playing pro ball.
In China or India they have little choice. It’s survival at a subsistence level. For these kids being signed by MLB, they have a choice not to sign, but do so because it’s a chance to greatly improve their situation.
Jobs with US companies are good gigs in a lot of the world. When folks complain about the pay they get, I think they imagine a world that is different than it is. They can work in a factory for $1-2/hour, or they can work in the fields for a fraction of that.
Back when I use to check this stuff, a German would get paid 5x as much as a Chinese, and a Chinese would get paid 5x as much as someone from Malaysia.
These folks aren’t working at an American factory because they love us. They do so because it is the best alternative.
I would imagine the Orioles have every interest in treating him very well.
It because Nike has had 12-13 year old children making their shoes for years. Mr Perfect LeBron James doesn’t seem bothered by that at all. Child slave labor. I knew this 30 years ago. It’s why I don’t buy Nike.
Id typically care about such things, but based on history, the Angels have no idea what they are doing when signing such players.
I agree. Aside from the year they signed Arol Vera, placencia, and Bonilla, I always come away disappointed with their international signings. It’s frustrating that they’re not more aggressive in this market or the draft.
For most of these kids signing a contract for even $100K is a life changing event for their whole family. For those that think this is not fair, get over your US cultural bias. These days every industry is taking advantage of the lower wages outside the US. That is what
off-shoring jobs and H-1B visas are all about.
Wage savings is the cover story and has been for two decades. Offshoring industries seek developing nations with little or no workforce legal rights. Therefore no lawsuits, frivolous or not.
I agree AlienBob. These teams are providing an once in a lifetime opportunity for these kids; will forever be the common denominator. Claim all the downsides, sure, they are valid. But, it’s still a choice that most accept.
For manufacturing, as often as not, environmental laws are as important as low wages.
AlienBob18 hours ago
For most of these kids signing a contract for even $100K is a life changing event for their whole family.
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I was a couple of days away from completing my MBA, and I had put in a fair amount of time going to school at night. At that point, some HS kid signed a $10M basketball contract. Some people were complaining that he was missing ‘the college experience’. My reply was that, if someone were to offer me $10M, I’d leave school a couple of days short of my MBA.
Literally, I’d have gotten up, left my books there, and never returned.
Either you have a system where the International guys wanna sign, or you don’t. Complain about your garbage organization on another day. My team, the Nats, fight to sign guys, during regular FA, and during International. We have the worst TV deal in baseball because of Satan Peter Angelos, but our owners keep going all in. I think we have one of the best owners in baseball given our constraints.
The alternative is not having a team at all. Gotta love people who say they will do anything just to get their foot in the door, and once you do they complain about the terms of the agreement they agreed to. Plenty of teams have done more with less against far better competition the last 12-15 years see rays for example.
And before some simpleton says how many titles do the rays have because the nats have one, while they drool all over themselves attempting to say something smart. Success is measured in more than just one year where the team got lucky and won the World Series.
I bet that “El fenómeno” will be better than Robles but not as good as Soto. LOL
To be fair I had heard of few of the IFA players until yesterday, but one team that stood out with the WTF did you do is Baltimore. Not only did they spend all their money on quantity, but they signed the 22nd ranked player for $1.7m while the Pirates signed the 11th and 12th ranked players for $900k and $1.2m respectively: Very strange.
These are all individuals. Just because the 11th and 12th ranked players signed for what they did, doesn’t mean the 22nd ranked player would sign for less. Clearly that 22nd pick thinks he worth more. I like the confidence he shows in himself.
And, I don’t mind the Orioles’ quantity approach. As mentioned above, Acuna signed for $100K, so maybe one of their multiple signings might progress beyond projection, like Acuna did.
My Oakland A’s took an interesting prospect from the DR . 1b Kevin Dume who was 6″5 at 15 years old . YouTube video shows a nice swing with loud contact . I hate when they take these bony speed guys who end up hitting .213 at Stockton . Go big specimen , or go home .