The Red Sox made a somewhat surprising run to the ALCS in 2021. They’ve been fairly quiet to this point in the offseason, making a series of low-cost additions on the pitching staff. Yet they could be poised for some more impactful activity once the new collective bargaining agreement is in place.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Chris Sale, LHP: $82MM through 2024 (Sale can opt out of final two years and $55MM after 2022; contract also contains a 2025 vesting option based on Cy Young voting)
- Xander Bogaerts, SS: $80MM through 2025 (Bogaerts can opt out of final three years and $60MM after 2022; contract also contains a 2026 vesting option based on plate appearances)
- J.D. Martinez, DH: $19.375MM through 2022
- Matt Barnes, RHP: $18.75MM through 2023 (including buyout of $8MM club option for 2024)
- Jackie Bradley Jr., CF: $17.5MM through 2022 (including buyout of $12MM mutual option for 2023)
- Nathan Eovaldi, RHP: $17MM through 2022
- James Paxton, LHP: $10MM through 2023 (deal contains club option for 2023-24; Paxton can exercise 2023 player option if club declines their option)
- Enrique Hernández, 2B: $8MM through 2022
- Christian Vázquez, C: $7MM through 2022
- Michael Wacha, RHP: $7MM through 2022
- Rich Hill, LHP: $5MM through 2022
- Hirokazu Sawamura, RHP: $2.2MM through 2022 (including buyout of $3MM club option for 2023)
- Franchy Cordero, CF: $825K through 2022
Owe $16MM to Dodgers as part of David Price trade
Total 2022 commitments: $155MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Rafael Devers — $11.1MM
- Nick Pivetta — $3.2MM
- Alex Verdugo — $3.2MM
- Kevin Plawecki — $2.25MM (settled to avoid arbitration)
- Ryan Brasier — $1.4MM (settled to avoid arbitration)
- Christian Arroyo — $1.1MM
- Josh Taylor — $1.1MM
Option Decisions
- Exercised $7MM club option on Christian Vázquez
- Kyle Schwarber declined his end of $11.5MM mutual option in favor of $3MM buyout
- Team declined $10MM option on Garrett Richards in favor of $1.5MM buyout
- Team declined $6MM option on Martín Pérez in favor of $500K buyout
Free Agents
- Kyle Schwarber, Eduardo Rodríguez, Garrett Richards, Martín Pérez, Adam Ottavino, Hansel Robles, Danny Santana, José Iglesias, Yacksel Ríos, Travis Shaw, Brad Peacock, Stephen Gonsalves, Jack Lopez, Yairo Muñoz, Raynel Espinal
After coming up a couple wins shy of a pennant, the Red Sox opened the winter facing the departure of a few important members of last year’s club. Most notable among them: longtime rotation cog Eduardo Rodríguez and midseason trade pick-up Kyle Schwarber.
Boston expressed interest in retaining both players, but Rodríguez departed fairly quickly. The southpaw signed a five-year deal with the Tigers in the first marquee free agent move of the offseason, leaving the Sox to turn elsewhere for starting pitching. Boston was loosely tied to top-of-the-market options like Robbie Ray and Kevin Gausman, and they reportedly had strong interest in Steven Matz. Yet in all three cases — as with Rodríguez — those hurlers ended up landing multi-year deals elsewhere.
With no long-term rotation deals finalized, chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and his front office pivoted to a bulk approach to the pitching staff. Rather than concentrating their resources into a mid-rotation innings eater, the Sox have spread money around on a few lower-cost arms.
They began by inking Michael Wacha to a $7MM guarantee, making them the latest team to roll the dice on a hopeful bounceback from the righty. As the lockout neared, Boston reunited with veteran Rich Hill, who’s remarkably coming off his highest innings total since 2007. The Massachusetts native is entering his age-42 campaign, yet he’s continued to produce at an average or better level every season, adding to an incredible late-career renaissance that began in Boston in 2015.
Wacha and Hill are each options for the season-opening starting staff. Boston’s other free agent rotation pickup, James Paxton, is not. He’s still recovering from an April 2021 Tommy John surgery and likely won’t be ready until the middle of the season. Paxton’s a very good pitcher when healthy, though, and for a $10MM guarantee, the Sox picked up a two-year club option that could keep him around through 2024.
The Red Sox’s choice to eschew a huge rotation investment minimizes their long-term financial downside, but it’s not without risk in 2022. There’s plenty of upside among Boston’s in-house rotation options, but it’s a high-variance unit. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if Chris Sale returns to his ace-caliber form, but it’s tough to treat that as a given after Sale missed most of the past two years recovering from Tommy John surgery. Nathan Eovaldi was excellent last season and could be a high-end #2 behind Sale, but he’s had ups and downs throughout his career. Nick Pivetta has great raw stuff but inconsistent production.
Boston seems comfortable with that volatility. The free agent rotation market has been mostly picked through to this point. There are still some interesting trade possibilities, but it’d register as a bit of a surprise if Boston lands someone like Sonny Gray or Sean Manaea after signing three free agent starters. That’s particularly true given the presence of Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock, each of whom the club will seemingly consider for the rotation mix.
The latter two hurlers might also find themselves in the bullpen. Whitlock, in particular, was downright excellent in shorter stints as a rookie. While he’d had some success as a starter in the minors and has spoken about his desire to land a rotation role, it’s arguable the Sox should keep him in relief.
The late inning mix is uncertain, largely thanks to the second half struggles of Matt Barnes. Signed to a two-year extension after an All-Star first half, Barnes was awful during the season’s final couple months and was left off the initial playoff roster. As he struggled to find his footing, Whitlock emerged as the top late-game option for manager Alex Cora. Getting Barnes back on track is no doubt a key focus for the Boston coaching staff and front office, but it’s tough to pencil him back into a high-leverage role at the moment.
In addition to Barnes’ downturn, the Sox are facing the free agent departures of a few of their most relied-upon relievers. Garrett Richards and Martín Pérez were both kicked to the bullpen midseason after struggling as starters; their contracts have since been bought out. Adam Ottavino hit free agency, as did midseason pickup Hansel Robles. Those aren’t impact arms, and Boston could look to bring one or more back on affordable deals. But it’s a lot of relief innings to potentially walk out the door, and with a high-risk, high-reward rotation, having a reliable bullpen takes on all the more importance.
Some of the Red Sox’s bullpen work may have already been addressed by their rotation signings. Adding enough starters to have the flexibility to use Whitlock and/or Houck later in games helps, and Wacha might eventually be a bullpen option himself. Yet there’s more work to be done, particularly from the right side. Josh Taylor, Darwinzon Hernández and midseason trade acquisition Austin Davis make for a solid trio of southpaws. The right-handed group — likely anchored by Whitlock, Ryan Brasier, Barnes and Hirokazu Sawamura — looks a bit thinner.
At least one big league addition to the mix seems likely, whether via free agency, trade or the Rule 5 draft. Just minutes before the lockout, Bloom told reporters the club was hoping to “add more pitching,” noting that they’d “yet to address (the bullpen) in meaningful fashion.” Kenley Jansen is the biggest-name free agent closer still available, while players like Ryan Tepera and Collin McHugh could step into set-up roles.
Bloom also indicated the Red Sox would like to add a right-handed bat whenever teams are again permitted to make moves. That came on the heels of the club trading away one of their top righty hitters, outfielder Hunter Renfroe. With the transactions freeze fast approaching, Boston sent Renfroe to Milwaukee to bring back Jackie Bradley Jr. and a pair of fairly well-regarded prospects.
The deal, which essentially amounted to taking on a few million dollars in salary to bolster the farm system while parting with Renfroe, registered as a surprise for a win-now Red Sox club. Bradley’s coming off the worst offensive season of any regular in MLB. The front office is no doubt hoping a return to familiar environs can help to reinvigorate his bat, and Bradley’s still a high-end center fielder. But while the front office may not believe the downgrade from Renfroe to Bradley is as significant as their respective 2021 numbers would indicate, it’s unquestionably a blow to the club’s offense.
Renfroe was fifth on the team in park-adjusted hitting last season (minimum 100 plate appearances). His loss, coupled with Schwarber’s potential free agent departure, could make it hard for the Sox to again run out a top-five run scoring unit in 2022. The deal does, however, make for a sizable defensive improvement, much needed for a team that was by far the league’s worst at turning balls in play into outs.
Strong team defenses were behind a lot of the Rays’ success during Bloom’s tenure in the Tampa Bay front office, and it seems that’ll be a priority for his clubs in Boston. That might diminish the possibility of a Schwarber reunion, since he’s a bat-first corner outfielder who struggled to acclimate to first base down the stretch. There’s room on the roster for a position player pickup of some form, though, and there’s enough flexibility that that addition could come in a number of areas.
That’s largely thanks to the presence of utilityman Enrique Hernández, who had an excellent season after signing a two-year deal last winter. Hernández is a plus defensive option at a number of positions, and his ability to bounce between the infield and outfield serves the front office well. If the Red Sox add an outfielder from outside the organization (or re-sign Schwarber), then they’d have that player, top prospect Jarren Duran, Alex Verdugo and Bradley as options on the grass. Hernández, meanwhile, could slide to second base, where there’s not a whole lot of certainty internally. Alternatively, Boston could acquire a second baseman (the Mets are reportedly likely to make Jeff McNeil available, to name one speculative possibility) and rely on Hernández primarily in center with Bradley pushed into fourth outfield duty.
It’s also worth mentioning the possibility of the Red Sox going all out for one of the two remaining star free agent shortstops. Reports have tied Boston to each of Carlos Correa and Trevor Story this winter, and owner John Henry has shown a willingness to make a significant splash in years past.
Boston certainly doesn’t need a shortstop. Xander Bogaerts is one of the sport’s best players, and the Sox could feel good about him keeping the job entering the season. He can opt out of his current contract at the end of next season, though, and Boston could see a Correa or Story signing as a way to preemptively guard against Bogaerts’ possible departure (as the Dodgers did in acquiring Trea Turner with Corey Seager’s free agency looming).
Signing Correa or Story could push Bogaerts over to second base. While he’s an excellent hitter, Bogaerts hasn’t rated highly as a defender in the eyes of most public advanced metrics. A move to the keystone could help address Boston’s aforementioned team-wide defensive issues, particularly if the Red Sox signed the Gold Glove-winning Correa. (Advanced metrics have been mixed on Story, who has a strong glove and range but has had some issues with throwing errors in recent years).
As things currently stand, Hernández and Christian Arroyo look like the favorites for playing time at second base. Prospect Jeter Downs was added to the 40-man roster and might factor into the mix as well, but he’ll first need to rebound from a dismal Triple-A season. The remaining free agent options at the position aren’t great, leaving a run at Story/Correa or a trade as the best ways for an upgrade.
Boston could also be a dark horse suitor for either of Kris Bryant or Freddie Freeman if they’re content with their current middle infield. Bryant could play primarily in the corner outfield while seeing some action at third base, perhaps allowing Rafael Devers to spend more time across the diamond at first base. Devers is an impact hitter but has had his share of defensive woes as well. Bryant’s among the best right-handed bats still available, and his ability to bounce between the infield and outfield would fit with the Red Sox’s seeming penchant for defensive versatility.
Freeman would be a first base solution only, supplanting Bobby Dalbec on the depth chart there. Top first base prospect Triston Casas isn’t far off major league readiness, but Freeman and Casas could split first base/designated hitter duties in 2023 and beyond. J.D. Martinez forewent an opt-out possibility and will return as the DH next season, but he’ll be a free agent at the end of the year. A run at Freeman would be an outside-the-box move and would probably lead to a Dalbec trade that skews the lineup even more left-handed. But Freeman’s the type of impact player teams should be willing to creatively accommodate, if negotiations between he and the Braves stall out over his reported desire for a sixth guaranteed year.
There are myriad infield possibilities for Bloom and his front office. Adding to the roster in some form makes sense, although it’s also possible the organization prioritizes a long-term deal for one of their current stars. Perhaps Boston could try to supersede Bogaerts’ opt-out by exploring another contract extension with the three-time All-Star. Presumably, the club would love to to work out a deal with Devers, controllable through 2023 via arbitration. Both players are far enough along in their careers that they may prefer to just wait out free agency, but the Red Sox at least figure to be in touch with their respective representatives.
The final area of the roster — the catching corps — already seems in place. The Red Sox exercised a $7MM option on Christian Vázquez to open the winter. After avoiding arbitration with backup Kevin Plawecki, they look to have that duo locked in with Connor Wong and Ronaldo Hernández as depth options. The Sox reportedly looked into a Jacob Stallings deal before the Pirates traded him to the Marlins, indicating at least some willingness to make a move behind the plate. Stallings is no longer available, though, and a Vázquez – Plawecki pairing should be capable if unspectacular.
The roster is versatile enough that the opportunities are numerous — if ownership is willing to sign off on another significant expenditure. That the Red Sox have been loosely tied to Correa and Story might suggest there’s money to be spent once the new CBA is in place and the team has more information about the luxury tax thresholds. They haven’t made any huge offseason splashes since Bloom took over the front office, but an impact move or two may be necessary to keep pace in a loaded American League East.
Think they will miss Renfroe.
Yes
Maybe?
Simply depends on the final lineup configuration. If it includes an impact righty bat, he won’t be missed as much. That said, even with his defensive miscues, him not being in right will be missed. Forget saberstats. His hustle backing up and cannon simply cannot be accurately measured in extra bases not taken. it’s just not possible to accurately measure such subjective “data”.
To some degree, that depends on how we replace him. Suzuki is supposed to have a good arm.
Waiting has never been my strength. Wish the networks would put pressure on both sides to start the season on time. I realize the lockout was the only leverage ownership has but what about a pledge to negotiate in good faith, no lockout and no labor stoppage? MLBPA already has the right to grieve for not negotiating in good faith so an agreement would be mostly for the fans. I realize there’s more to the equation but it would be great for those that in the end pay the freight.
I agree with JoeBrady, first choice is Suzuki and Plan B is Schwarber.
What do you guys think Chris Sale would fetch on the market if he returns to form and opts out? Would it be worth it to him to opt out of that kind of money with his injury history? He has to be considered a better bet that Strasburg and that guy opted out and still got $245 million. I think Boegarts is a virtual lock to opt out unless he has a surprisingly terrible or injury riddled season.
If he returns to form, yes, he will opt out. He’d have to beat $55M. A peak, or near peak Sale easily beats that total number.
That aside, no guarantee he approaches his former brilliance. His surface stats looked okay after he returned, but they managed his return and he faced almost all weak offenses. He faced the anemic Orioles three times. A bad Twins team. A bad Rangers team. A collapsing Mets team. He did face the Rays twice. Had one a good game, and the second time they handled him easily once they realized what he had…or didn’t have. His last game against the Nats almost cost the Red Sox a shot at the postseason. His fastball command just wasn’t there.
Now, I’m not saying this is who Sale is. He was still working his way back from TJS, so he might be quite good after getting those innings under his belt in 2021.. I’m simply saying don’t judge him his 2021 stats. Dig under them and there were concerning trends.
Rob M: that’s interesting. I didn’t know he was so so-so against decent lineups. It would be crazy next offseason if Kershaw signs a one year deal and does well. We could have Sale, Kershaw and deGrom all on the free agent market at the same time. At peak form those 3 guys could turn almost any team into a WS contender.
Not sure what u mean by return to form. He was pretty much the same old Chris Sale, except for 1-2 starts and never really found his changeup after returning. velocity and slider were there, tho his once pin point command came and went. Something could have been expected for a guy, who hadn’t pitched in 15 months in a competitive situation and even then.. He still did better than most would if take a peek at his numbers.
I have faith, Sale isn’t the type to sit back and take it easy. only some kind of injury (or strike) will stop him from putting up strong numbers during the ’22 season.
Sale is the type of starter every team wants and desires, like Scherzer.
Remember in many ways Sale is worst than Price in October, in the since that he’s usually done by the end of August. Until he gets that monkey off his back, he’s the guy who’ll help drive you there, but can’t show up to the party..
Not so sure because a second TJ surgery is theoretically possible. Add to it he had hip issues in 18 and his thin build, I know I would be leary. On the plus side would be his body has saved years of pitching abuse. Remember, he has never completed a season strongly. If he returns to form, my guess is the team and he try instead to work out an additional extension.
Cannot compare Sake and Scherzer. Big Max is a HOF who has proven himself on the big playoffs stage.
Agreed. Hopefully that monkey goes up a tree. I’m hard on Sale but love him as well. Just want to see him end strongly. Reminds me of a much better Bruce Hurst. Hurst was another lefty who never ended strongly. The one year he did, 1986, he got hurt and started the season in ajune or July. He was the team’s best playoffs’ starter that season and used it to ultimately get a big payday from the Padres.
Sale is an interesting personality with a ferocious loyalty and a laissez faire attitude towards money. I know I will get a lot of static about how players are always ultimately guided by the money in these situations but I can see Sale sticking it out with the Red Sox for the duration of his current contract. I believe he feels strongly that he gave the Red Sox nothing for two years of the deal and I believe that will weigh on him in making any decision to opt out. Let me hear the cynics say……………
dewey – I’m so old I remember a lefty named John Tudor, he was far better than Hurst and even finished runnerup in Cy voting.
…..runner up in Cy voting for the St Louis Cardinals after the Red Sox had him….
Fever, sorry for the late response. Tudor, Hurst and Ojeda came up together. Tudor was traded to the Pirares and Ojeda went to the Mets. At the time, all three showed promise but yes Tudor had the best overall career. Hurst though was usually better in the first half but wore down. Sale has historically been the best in the game April through June but tired out by August Just like Hurst. That was the comparison I was making
That whole thing annoyed me. For some reason, I think the RS suddenly got into a mind set that lefties couldn’t pitch at Fenway. It is not the ideal, but good pitching is good pitching.
Joe in the 50’s & 60’s even the NYY refused to start Whitey Ford at Fenway. The only lefty the Sox had with any success was Mel Parnell. The difference now is the new press box which cuts down on the wind blowing out to left.
JC#1 – Like your handle, I totally agree!!
Yeah if not for the elbow injury, I think he would have had a decent shot at the HOF with 4-5 more good years.
He’s the answer to a good trivia question, which player broke his leg by simply sitting in the dugout.
Dewey – No worries, as you can see I don’t always look back at old article comments right away either.
If I recall correctly, wasn’t Hurst a devout Mormon who didn’t believe in conditioning or working out because it would have altered the body that God gave him?
Ojeda was so fortunate to have survived that accident which killed the other players on the boat. Just another example of how a relaxed body can survive accidents more often than those who tense up at the time of impact.
Joe – I think even you would agree it was another example of a team misusing statistics. The Red Sox had that mindset for a reason, the statistics proved out lefties didn’t fare as well in Fenway.
But one thing they didn’t take into consideration, LHP often took longer to develope.
Tudor was a mediocre pitcher in Boston, putting up a 3.96 ERA and 1.34 WHIP through his Age 29 season. He didn’t even make his MLB debut until Age 25, and didn’t become a legit ML’er until Age 27. Then he put up a 2.66 ERA 1.12 WHIP during his Age 30-36 seasons.
Same thing with Hurst, from Age 22 thru Age 27 he had a 4.59 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. And then during his Age 28 thru Age 34 seasons (prior to the career-ending injury) he had a 3.44 ERA and 1.227 WHIP.
FPG – Happy New Years!
Everything about Tudor was right statistically but for me the huge difference was the league and the ball park. Nobody puts up the same numbers in LA versus Boston. That’s why people like Statcast try to remove the home field impact on numbers. I am not saying they are right but clearly if you pitch the same in LA and BOS your numbers will be far superior in LA.
Also, during that time frame the NL with pitchers hitting also created some of the difference between his Boston and STL/LAD numbers. If you check Hurst’s numbers you see the same truth in his numbers as he changed teams.
FYI… I’m so old I can remember Lefty Grove outperforming Tudor!!
Not if they land Suzuki.
They won’t miss him but taking on Bradley’s contract for the prospects they got was so bad
I agree. I don’t really get that. Over $17 million for guy who couldn’t even hit half as well as the average major leaguer last season. Those prospects better be good. They better be really good. I haven’t heard a lot about them but I don’t think they were super highly ranked or anything. I can’t see trading a decent player in Renfroe while also taking on a terrible contract like Bradley without getting some serious guaranteed above average starters as prospects in return. It looks like the Red Sox expect more from Bradley than anyone else. Maybe they think they can get him turned around again. I wouldn’t have bet Renfroe and over $17 million on it if I were them.
Binelas will likely end up at 1B, has big power/K issues. Hamilton is a fast rising SS/2B prospect. Near 70 grade speed, LHH with good bat to ball skills. Utility floor/lead-off hitter ceiling.
Over $17 million for guy who couldn’t even hit half as well as the average major leaguer last season.
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Part of the equation is that JBJ will return to some semblance of his former self. Over the last 4-5, JBJ and Marte are about equal in overall value. Marte had an excellent 2021, and JBJ had a bad one.
As someone mentioned here, centerfielders are in short supply. With any return to form, JBJ could be a better bargain than Marte.
How many teams use the leadoff spot for a old school fast guy with little power anymore?
Marte and JB equal? lmao. Marte not only resembles a major league hitter, he is a pretty good one too
What was shocking after ’20 season was amount of Sox fans who wanted Bradley resigned then after the short season included 1 of his mini hot streaks. Am thinking most of those posters here will be in very short supply when Bradley’s woes with the bat continue, as I was glad to see him take it elsewhere.
The prospects had to be the key, along with a lack of faith in Renfroe coming close to reproducing his ’21 numbers. A big gamble and hopefully the kids received back from the brew-crew look better next year do better than the guy they got for taking on Ottavino’s 9m (Frank German) who struggled at AA all year.
Money with a new CBA will not likely be the team’s issue. Bloom has so far won me over and I love the trade although I enjoyed Renfroe in 21. I’m anticipating better overall defense in 22 which should save the pitching somewhat. Let’s see what the 22 roster looks like and what happens to the chips we got. They could help down the road or could be used for a trade.
johnsilver: I think you have a very poor memory. Most wanted to let him walk. Its easy to check. Posts from Nov 2020: “Let him walk” “Clean out his locker” “1 year 4mil should do it”. These are the first few comments from story published here at this site, back in November 2020 regarding Bradley. I’m sure there is the occasional keep him. But, the vast majority said ‘let him walk’.
Love my Sox But bringing JBJ wasn’t a good move. He stinks and has for a few years Why trade Renfroe for him? I’d looked for someone else than him. .
I didn’t say they were equal. I said their value was equal Total bWAR and bWAR/650 PAs
Player A 14,6/4.1
Player B 15.8/4.1
If you want to explain wMart’s 4.1 is 10x better than JBJ’s 4.1, I’d be glad to listen. Or maybe write a strongly-worded letter to Baseball Reference explaining why their calculations are incorrect. Who knows, maybe they missed a decimal.
Their WARs being equal over a 5 year span doesn’t have any bearing on 2022. Bradley is the worst hitter in baseball. Marte is well above average. This isn’t even close. Red Sox took on a dead contract for two mid level prospects
And great defense which allows them to potentially play Hernandez at second. Sox need infield defense more than another bat. Renfroe had an exceptional season but obviously Bloom questioned him doing it again and sava Tampa like opportunity to stockpile for the future and maybe also steal the present.
amk1920
Their WARs being equal over a 5 year span doesn’t have any bearing on 2022. Bradley is the worst hitter in baseball.
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And that also, is exactly what I posted.
But one year ago, JBJ was coming off a much better year than Marte. Did that make JBJ a much better player than Marte? Probably not. But the point being, if both players revert to their 2020 stats, then JBJ is a much, much better contract.
The whole crux of your argument, imo, is that you think JBJ cannot revert to his stats from one year ago.
But if JBJ reverts back to his single worst year in the past 6 years, then this will work out for us.
Renfroe tanked in the playoffs; They can get a more consistent bat to replace his offense.
I still see Freddie Freeman as a dark horse, seeing as the Braves have taken too long.
What do you do with Casas, once youve signed Freeman? 18th ranked prospect, and after being best hitter in Arizona Fall League, that number surely has improved. He will be ready to take over 1B by August earliest, next May by the latest.
What do you do with Casas, once youve signed Freeman? 18th ranked prospect, and after being best hitter in Arizona Fall League, that number surely has improved. He will be ready to take over 1B by August earliest, next May by the latest.
You make one a DH assuming you trade or don’t resign JDM. Let Casas prove himself before anointing him the first baseman in 22 or 23. That said, I like most everyone else expect FF to return to Atlanta which is where he belongs. They probably already have an unwritten agreement on five and six years (matching should someone offer it).
Casas is getting 1B in ’22 or ’23, He’s proven it at A, AA, Olympics and Arizona League, with no inconsistency. Sure he could fall off the map at Worcester this year, anything could happen. But then again 32 year old Firstbasemen have been know to do the same. Signing Freeman would be ridiculous considering all the other needs the team has.
As far as returning to Atlanta: Give it a rest, thats been being said for close to a year. If the sides had something worked out, it would’ve been signed before the lockout. Most every FA tried to sign before the lockout, in fear of rule changes and restrictions negotiated in the new CBA. If Freeman had something even close to being worked out, he would’ve signed. He’s as free as any other FA out there.
A year back, I told a number of Red Sox fans I know who were despondent over the upcoming season that they were going to be better than expected, with a chance to challenge for a postseason spot, although they more likely would finish 3rd just outside the playoffs. They outdid even my projections. This year I’m on the opposite side. They’re targeted for 4th unless they make some additional moves. I think they will.
I think they are better than the Yankees. Unless a major move is made, my prediction:
Jays
Rays
Sox
Yanks
Orioles
Rays-Jays-Yankees-Boston-Orioles
Both teams need to make some additional moves, but I’d still slot the Yankees ahead. The two teams tied last year in a season when the Red Sox had a very high degree of health that history says won’t repeat. The Yankees had a high degree of under performance that should correct some. I do expect both teams to make moves coming out of the lockout so my prediction can change.
They will have Sale for a full season, although I doubt he’s going to be peak Sale. The Yankees were deadly quiet prior to the lockout. That indicates they’re waiting to see the terms of the new CBA. They’ll likely be one of the more active teams post lockout. Can’t quite get a read on Bloom yet. He’ll make moves, but will they be big ones?
RobM – His peak price paid is $12M since he became a GM. I’m guessing he doesn’t exceed the number especially with only a little over 6 million left under the cap.
Freddie! Freddie! Freddie!
It will probably be Schwarber though.
They’re more likely to hold 1B for Casas and spend elsewhere.
Yea, but the lineup with Freeman is a nightmare. I agree, it’s a pipe dream
What indications has Bloom made that he is looking to pay $30MM per on any player. Boston sure hasn’t acted like a team with money burning a hole in their pocket.
None. I’m just being a fan
By all means! We all need to be fans. That’s why when the surprise moves happen, we all get to celebrate.
What $30M per year player has actually lived up to that money for the team giving it to them so far?
Max Scherzer. Twice.
Ok, so there’s one out of how many? Still seems like teams are better off not paying $30M+ per year for players. And for the record Scherzer has only paid off once so far, his deal with Washington. We’ll see if he winds up being worth it for the Mets.
Blooms largest deal that he’s put together is with Barnes… he doesn’t have experience in signing blockbuster deals.. I’ll be surprised if he signs any one player to over 4 years 80m
Bloom isn’t signing over 4 years because the owners don’t want him to. Team is taking on a Rays model, where you don’t break the bank and team payroll for 1 or 2 guys. Instead, build from within.
Please expand on the “experience” needed to give out more money. Don’t see how someone could be capable of giving out $80m, but $100m baffles him.
LOL!
I never understood how people come to the conclusion that someone could write a check for $15M. But, if they had to write for $16M, their fingers would shrivel up.
Nor do I understand some people’s fascination with large numbers. In BB particularly, since it is not a single player type of game. I’d much rather have say, Suzuki & Story for $34M, than Seager for $34M.
Nor do I understand how some fans don’t realize that the reason he hasn’t signed anyone huge is because we haven’t had the budget flexibility
I see people explain this constantly, but I’ll give it go. The current Boston Red Sox organization are built on winning. That doesn’t mean it always happens, but that’s the goal. If you lose, get back to winning as quickly as possible. Once everyone knew that Dave D’s model wouldn’t work past the World Series victory they dumped him knowing he’s not the rebuild guy, I believe they also had it with the “win the World Series then implode” model they’ve been on since Theo left and wanted something much more sustainable. Bloom got the job not to spend money, this organization spends. It’s to spend it wisely, balanced. The Angels spend, but don’t make the post season. Why? No balance. Bloom will spend. The Sox will annually be at the top of list in spending, but the days of exceedingly long, fanancially cumbersome contracts, are hopefully over. No more splash for splash sakes contracts. Right now, I’d say the real Bloom model doesn’t start till Casas, Mayer and Yorke show up. His team will be built around them. In the mean time, he’s looking for smart workable contracts that won’t eventually be an albatross to the Sox future. Which is why my prediction money is on Suzuki. Could be a steal, and I believe at worse a solid citizen.
I have said ALL ALONG that Bloom is building this team around those that you mentioned. In the meantime once the DD contracts { Eovaldi, Bogaerts, JD,etc} end Bloom will plug in with 1 or at most 2 yr deals with Renfroe/Hernandez types to keep the Sox competitive and placate the fans until the next wave of prospects arrive on entry level deals. Devers will also likely be dealt for prospects just like Mookie was. Then when those players reach the point where they become expensive they will be dealt for more prospects to keep the Chain going. That is exactly the Tampa model
That is garbage. Not saying we should be signing a high priced FA but to say we don’t have the financial flexibility is crap. Sox have reset their cap TWO years ago and ir’s not like Bloom hasn’t’t spent at all just that he hasn’t really spent wisely overpaying for guys like Perez and Richards last year nd now Wacha and Paxton
Randy = SO TRUE!!
$73M spent by Bloom for mediocre players is not exactly the TB way!!
The TB formula stinks overall and explains why they have no rings. I still prefer building a base with six elite players and the rest sub $5M players. Just like in the past, many of the sub $5M players are farm system guys who graduated and are in various states of pre=arb and arb.
I’d much rather have a Dalbec starting who make $0.575M than a $5M to $12M journeyman that Bloom thinks will have an up year next year. If Dalbec matches the numbers of the Bloom guy then $4M to $11M is saved!!
Without 6 elite players there is NOT ENOUGH foundation to the team to sustain winning through to the World Series as seen by last year’s team and every TB team in it’s history!
Bloom is taking things in the opposite direction thanks to the TB model. At some point the entire team will be players making between $5M and $12M a year. This formula is a necessity in TB where there is little fan support. In Boston, merchandising revenue should fall from a lack of stars, TV revenue should take a hit from fielding teams that have such a small chance of winning a ring and no all-star players In essence, the profits will suffer as the fair weather fans disappear due to the ho hum nature of the team and TV and merchandising revenues will subside as the fair weather fans disappear. That’s a dismal future for the Red Sox diehard fan base. No all-stars, no rings and expensive seats, parking and concessions.
For everyone who hates long term contracts, how do you expect to land talented players that warrant long term contracts if you eliminate them from the scope of players you will contract?
These things confound me about hating long term contracts:
1 Starless teams don’t win rings.
2 Payroll isn’t coming out of your pockets.
3 Ownership still makes over 1/4 of billion per year when the team exceeds the the first threshold of the luxury tax and even the second threshold.
Why support concepts that hurt end results? The Dodgers recently figured this out. The Yankees take no issue with spending on long term contracts and since they got Ruth over 100 years ago they have dominated winning in baseball with half the World Series rings from the time they got Ruth until 1962!! If it wasn’t for their front office ineptitude their rings would have doubled since 1962. Winning and making profits is a good thing but it’s criticized by many fans. That makes no sense to me!
I simply can’t believe the closed minded attitude toward DD and how he spent under the cap, told ownership to behave responsibly and pay for their past mistakes, built a payroll model that had the six pillars of expensive players and the rest dirt cheap farm system guys, used his farm system’s over=rated players to deal for players to fix holes in the roster as if the over-rated farm players were money and then created a logical payroll schedule for farm players to graduate and lessen the overall payroll of the MLB team. His approach is brilliant and worked wonderfully yet ownership moved to an approach that has never yielded a single ring. The results of this approach remind me of another Red Sox era = 1919 to 2003!! Lets hope history doesn’t repeat itself.
I agree with you except for one thing about DD. When Drombowski came to the Red Sox, the Red Sox already had stars. They had the best farm system in baseball, with guys like Devers and Moancada (at the time Swihart was wrongly in the category), with a supporting cast of players like E-ROD and Barnes. Established stars like Xander and Mookie were already on the team. DD inherited a roster with stars, and added complementary pieces. Kimbrel was good, but a good closer means nothing without good offense and pitching; a closer saves games, they don’t win them. Price was a solid #2 or 3 if healthy, but he’s not an ace. The only “star” Drombowski ADDED was Sale. The stars came from the farm, the complementary pieces came from outside.
If you do what you want to do, which is blindly throw money and prospects at MLB players, what you get is a dead farm system with a whole bunch of money on the books. Let’s say you sign 3 elite players in FA and trade for 3 (which you can only do if you have potential stars in the farm like Moncada was). You have nothing from the farm system, so if one of those elite players gets hurt, your team is that much worse. You also are spending about 150 million on a few players. There are 26 players on a baseball team! Even if the other 20 are super cheap ($4 million a year), that’s 80 million. That’s a $230 million payroll, and probably higher, because you can’t fill a roster with 20 pre-arb/arb players from a bare farm. That’s all ok if your stars are performing, but once they are out of their prime, you end up with a bunch of albatrosses that no one wants, so you become a losing team for several years on end, with no stars left in the farm. Three ways to get out of this:
DODGERS WAY: Spend like crazy. The Dodgers used a bunch of highly paid stars to win the division in 2013 and 14, but some of them (Carl Crawford, Jimmy Rollins, etc.) declined. To make up for this, LA ran the highest payroll IN HISTORY, more than 300 million, in 2015, and hit 250 million the next year. They lost the division series in 2015 and in the NLCS in 2016. At the same time however, their farm system improved. Corey Seager, Julio Urias, Joc Pederson, Walker Buehler, Cody Bellinger, etc. all came up and started producing.
ASTROS WAY: Lose. Lose. Lose. Put the worst team on the field every year, get good draft pick, combine with some cheating, and you have a champion!
GIANTS WAY: The Giants used “Even Year Magic” to win three World Series from 2010-14, but then they were stuck with a bunch of massively overpaid veterans who were barely performing. To get out of this, Farhan Zadi dumped a bunch of big contracts and let the others play out. In the meantime, he signed a lot of mediocre players to short term deals to try and make a few into stars. With the Giants, some of his reclamation projects became stars (Gausman, Desclafani, Ruf), and, combined with veteran stars from the previous era (Crawford, Posey, etc), the Giants won 107 games. This is the approach Bloom is using. He dumped Betts and Price because they were expensive and Betts would command a long term deal, and let JD, Devers, Xander, Sale, etc. carry the team. He then signed a bunch of veterans to short term deals to complement those stars and maybe become stars themselves. This keeps the team competitive until the REAL window opens, and maybe finds a few stars that can be used in the next window.
The Red Sox, nor any other team in baseball, cannot create stars out of thin air. Free agents are extremely risky and expensive, and it usually takes top 10 in baseball prospects to get stars in a trade for more than a year. They need to develop the stars, either through their farm system or through reclamation projects. THEN they add to the team. Mayer, Yorke, Casas, etc. will form the foundation of the next Red Sox team. His signings are trying to both a) keep the team competitive while Xander and Devers etc. are still on the team, and b) find a few hidden gems he can take to the next era.
DDs “genius” plan might have involved another division title or even a championship, but like you said, he was planning for a 2022 retool. That meant a few years of losing. Under Bloom, the Red Sox will undertake a smooth transition, continuing to stay competitive and make the playoffs before they get really good. In the playoffs, anything can happen. DD might have made a better team, on paper, for the last few years, but at the cost of several losing years after that. And his better team might not have accomplished anything. Great teams lose in the first round, and borderline playoff teams win the World Series.
I am a Dodgers fan through and true, but if I can say one thing, it is that Bloom is doing a good job.
when i ever say the Red Sox should sign high priced FA’s?
Randy Red Sox
once the DD contracts { Eovaldi, Bogaerts, JD,etc} end Bloom will plug in with 1 or at most 2 yr deals with Renfroe/Hernandez types to keep the Sox competitive
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Once those contracts expire, they will be replaced by other contracts. Bloom will continue to develop the farm, but if we drop $56M in payroll, we will sign $56M in other players. The payroll is not going to drop much below whatever the cap is.
At this point, that’s kind of etched in stone.
yeah maybe Bloom will sign more guys like Wacha, JBJ, Hill, and Paxton with that 56 million
And maybe he signs guys like Kiki, Renfroe, etc.
And then he can trade Renfroe for a guy who makes more than him and hits .163. Bloom has made many moves since he came to Boston over 2 years ago. They can’t ALL fail. He is simply trying to build minor league depth but other than the draft none of the guys he has acquired are blue chip prospects. I would say the success of 2021 was about 70% on what DD left behind and about 30% { AT MOST} what Bloom did.
or sign more Perez and Richards types
Randy Red Sox19 hours ago
I would say the success of 2021 was about 70% on what DD left behind and about 30% { AT MOST} what Bloom did.
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Not really. There are 17 players with a bWAR of 1.0 or greater. Of these, 10 of them came from DD and previous GMs. They totaled 23.9 bWAR. The 7 players that Bloom acquired totaled 17.7. That’s 57.4%.
But more importantly, DD’s contracts were way more expensive, and the reason there was no money left over for Bloom.
DD’s 23.9 bWAR players cost $110M++. Bloom’s guys cost a fraction of that.
DD’s teams achieved 3 1st place finishes and a WS title. Bloom’s years have featured a last place finish and a WC finish
I’m not bashing DD, but simply telling you what the numbers are.
If you want, I can do the same thing with the 2016 RS, and see how much of the team’s success was attributed to DD’s predecessors, and how much of it belonged to DD’s acquisitions.
Neither! Neither! Neither! They have Casas minutes away from the majors, why block his path?
JD is a free agent at the end of the season. No signing will block Casas.
We will hopefully have Casas, Dalbec & Devers for 1st, 3rd, and DH.
Four’s a crowd
it will probably be NEITHER
I will love to see Kris Bryand 3b-RF and Collin McHugh
I think the McHugh ship has sailed after he opted out in the middle of summer camp in 2020. Plus he and his wife have a reputation of starting trouble amongst the clubhouse/WAGs. You’re getting too little for too much with Bryant, pass. They don’t need another infielder with poor defense, and I certainly wouldn’t trust him in the outfield with how tricky Fenway is.
The priorities seem to be on Suzuki–who will be cheaper, younger, and likely better than Bryant–supplanting Renfroe and adding bullpen help, which I think is the direction they should go in.
Hopefully we’ll see Casas, Seabold, Winckowski, Crawford, Bello, and possibly Mata contribute at the major league level this season, as well as Noah Song’s return to the MiLB.
My expectations:
Devers extension
Sign Suzuki
Sign Brad Miller as an infield utility guy so Kike can stay at his best position- CF
Pick up 1 or 2 under the radar(cheap) relief options that could hang on until the propsects eventually get the call in the late summer-September
The 40-man stands at 39 right now, and with Bloom reportedly going for Stallings, I think we could see some prospects/pre-arb guys on the 40 get dealt (Duran, Potts, Bazardo, Valdez, etc.)
“Bryant”
Don’t sleep on this Bryand chap. I hear he’s pretty good.
They need a top of the market rotation option but they’re not going to get one. So next they need an outfielder. They might take on Hosmer if they are willing to go over the tax. Hosmer is more consistent than Dalbec and Bloom loves prospects.
Hosmer?? Please… the only way is if St-Diego send a prospect ( Campusano )
I don’t know who is going to take Hosmer. He still has value, but it in no way matches his contract. A league-average bat at a position that demands higher. Fading glove and he still has four more years on that deal. That’s a tough one. If he was as free agent, would he get more than a year-to-year deal at $5M? He’s still owed $60M.
Exactly that’s what I’m saying: Bloom loves prospects and he’ll take Hosmer if one is attached.
It’d need to be one hell of a prospect
Hosmer Trolls at work. Yeah, and what do the Red Sox do with Casas? Worlds better than Hosmer.
Virtually no chance. Y’all have two issues with Hosmer.
1-You need a team that actually needs a 1B. It’s one thing to gamble that you’ll get 2 WAR back, and you have no one else there. But if you already have a 1B, then there is no upside.
2-The term is too long. If you trade for Cano, for example, there is always a chance you get one good season out of him, and manage to move him. No one will ever want 4 years of Hosmer.
…especially factoring in he’s going to get worse yearly.
dennyd – Happy New Years!
With two 6-4 corner infielders in the near future moving Devers to DH the Red Sox save a ton of money on two key power positions. If Dalbec can’t cut it defensively at 3B and Casas can’t either then maybe the lesser player gets moved in a deal but as of right now with the second half of 2021 going so well for Dalbec and less than 162 games under his belt I see no reason to think about moving him. Casas had a great fall but he still needs to prove he can handle AAA pitching. Once that happens the new CBA will dictate when he gets promoted. At that point one needs to be at 3B and the other at 1B. If Arroyo is the short term answer at 2B until Yorke shows up then Bogey is the only expensive infielder on the team. That will free up money currently spent on JD to get a lead off man center fielder, drop JBJ again and put Verdugo in right and Hernandez in left for now.
That team can eventually grow into a contender if Sale, Eovaldi, Houck and Pivetta stay healthy. I’m not sold on any of the Bloom SPs but spending $5M on Hill as a flyer rather than Perez makes sense. Hopefully, last year was an indication of Whitlock’s future as a stress inning guy so Boston can get a real closer and have a good relief corp.
San Diego don’t want Hosmer. Why would we? Another Travis Shaw
Dodgers – Dalbec hasn’t even played in 162 games yet and was one of the top hitters during the second half of 2021 and you are suggesting a clown like Hosmer who costs at least 30 times as much should be traded for? SeriouslY?
Dalbec second half 2021 – 175 ABs, 47 Hits .269 average .344 oBP .611 SLG
Hosmer second half 2021- 208 ABs 57 Hits .274 average .356 OBP .423 SLG
Dalbec costs $0.575M and Hosmer costs $18M. So roughly 31 times as expensive for nearly identical numbers except Dalbec has much more power!!
Horrible suggestion. Also when you are $6M from the cap trading to get prospects while eating salary is as dumb of a suggestion as I’ve heard.
1) I’m pretty sure Bloom is going over the cap this year,
2) I never said, nor do I believe, that Hosmer is a better hitter than Dalbec. I said he is a more CONSISTENT hitter than Dalbec. Dalbec had a great second half. But that doesn’t mean you can’t ignore his awful first half. If Dalbec is doing well put Hosmer on the bench or DH (or trade JD and put Dalbec at third, Hos at first, and Devers at DH, like you really want) If he’s injured or slumping, play Hosmer.
3) If I were the Red Sox GM I round get a #2 or #3 starter, but Bloom already spent on Hill, Paxton, and Wacha and I don’t see him spending to add a starter when he already has spent 30 mil on 3 of them. I don’t pretend to be a Red Sox expert, but Bloom loves prospects. Taking on Hosmer for prospects sounds like a very Bloom thing to do.
Dodger – Over the cap is virgin territory for Bloom. I see nothing motivating him to do so since ownership told him not to.
If you follow baseball a lot you know the game is about adjustments. Dalbec made adjustments and thrived in the second half. The pitchers will work on his book in the off season and we’ll have to see if he is forced to adjust again. The guy has less than a year under his belt and has already proven he can make adjustments and improve. It took Devers a year and a half and an entire off season to be where Dalbec is in 159 games.
Hosmer is expensive $18M for his abilities. He’s exactly the type of player Bloom said he was going to remove from the Boston roster before he arrived in Boston. Hosmer is a hard NO SALE to me..
Boston has Sale, Eovaldi, Houck, Pivetta and a clown to be named later. Where is the #2 and #3 SP comment coming from? There is no need for a #2 but I will agree that if Bloom hadn’t wasted $22M on Wacha, Paxton and Hill he would have enough to trade or acquire a #2 SP. That opportunity has already come and gone.
If Bloom without money pays for Hosmer and gets prospects he should be fired on the spot. Dozens of mistakes and no division championships with the history of firing in Boston is a very precarious position. Heck, DD had 3 GREAT years and one bad one due to injuries and Cora and he got axed despite having a great payroll plan through 2022.
Bloom should feel the ground shaking below his feet. The Mookie mistake started him down the rabbit hole and he keeps digging deeper as mistake after mistake keeps piling up. If it wasn’t for the players he inherited from DD carrying the load in 2021 he might be out of a job now. Add the three bad choices on SPs and a Hosmer mistake should seal the deal.
I listed the current 2022 roster elsewhere in this blog and it shows as of today two bench players are needed to fill out the 26 player roster and there is slightly over $6M under the first threshold of the luxury tax.
No big contracts are going to happen because Bloom doesn’t contract players for more than $12M per season and ownership wants to stay under the luxury cap. If the cap changes upward Bloom will have more money but I don’t see him exceeding his personal cap of $12M.
Taking on Hosmer for prospects sounds like a very Bloom thing to do.
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It isn’t. We only traded for two prospects. The first was Ottavino, and we needed a good BP arm/#2 closer. The second was with JBJ. Assuming this is a predecessor move to move Kiki back to 2nd, then we need a CF.
But Hosmer is a pure redundancy. That’s a virtual impossibility. Even Myers is a possibility, since we do not currently have a RF. Even Myers as a #4 OF/backup 1B, could be made to fit.
But the chances of trading for a 1B to sit on the bench all year ain’t likely to happen.
i totally agree with almost everything you wrote here.
Note: F off with the ads blocking me posting this. Once or twice is fine but not 10 times
what would you have don with Mookie?
what would you have don with Mookie?
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I’m not sure. At the time, I remember thinking that there were no good options for getting under the cap. And if the boss tells you that you have to get under, then you have to get under.
Disregarding that, we offered him $300M/10. His counter-offer was $420M/12. There is a -0- chance I’d be paying this guy $35M at age 39. That said, this was Betts’ way of saying that he wanted to leave.
Regarding the trade itself, I was hoping we’d trade with SD because Preller adds extra prospects to every trade. But Verdugo/Downs was a fine return. I said, well before the trade, that Verdugo would be a perfectly adequate return. Bloom had the presence of mind to know that Betts was replacing Verdugo, and Lux was going to start of Downs. That made it a great fit.
Bloom is turning this team into the Rays of the north rather than the Dodgers model (which is what I expected initially). He’s using most of the new payroll on salary dumps to boost the farm, signing hit or miss short term deals, and trading players who can help win with more of a outlook for the future. I believe his goal is to build the farm to the point of the Rays – where constant reinforcements of cheap young talent is prevalent and able to replace the outgoing vets. He’s also adapting the Rays pitching model where he’s going for quantity rather than a few big names within our staff, I believe he’ll also move towards more of a closer by committee as well. This strategy is making this team flexible as hell and propelling us to the future without past commitments holding us back as we’ve had before (Hanley, Panda, Price, etc). I’d expect less salary dumps in the future and a consistently top ten farm in the near future. The fact we made it to the ALCS in year two is quite remarkable and has me very excited, however, I do think this next season we will take a step back before being a true contender come 2023 and beyond. On a side note, once this lockout ends I believe Eovaldi and JD will be on the block with another possible salary dump like Hosmer and Will Myers, possibly both these possibilities become one big trade hmmm… Anyways, just wanted to vent my thoughts on this teams outlook please give feedback.. Go Sox!
@NYSox fan
I just don’t see Bloom taking on any large amounts to acquire prospects. Bradley is a short term cost, at a position of scarcity. Hosmer is not. Tampa Bay never did it that way, so I don’t see Bloom getting carried away with it. Bradley may just be a unique circumstance due to his history with the team.
Good point, Bloom’s past salary dumps have been of the shorter term (Ottavino and JBJ) but I think Hosmer can be a left handed platoon with Dalbec and return a great prospect or two.
True, but even though Jackie is still an elite fielder, his bat just continues further below the Mendoza line. Kike can stay in CF, and you can find an adequate 2B, and shuttle him on the infield as needed. $17.5 mil is a waste for a one dimensional player, no matter his team history.
Agree with everything but Hosmer. No way they take on Hosmer’s 4 years, and block Casas.
JD, Eovaldi and Vasquez for Hosmer, Myers, Austin Nola, Paddack and Morejon. Who says no?
The Red Sox that isn’t enough a return to take on that terrible Hosmer contract that would just keep on giving for the next 4 years.
That kind of deal sort of says the Sox are punting on next seaaon.
The Sox have two young First Baseman so what do they really need with Hosmer?
I could see a smaller deal for Wil Myers though. Bloom obviously has ties to Myers from Tampa Bay and the Sox were rumored to be interested in him a couple of years ago
I love and respect Myers ever since his rookie error in front of the Fenway bullpens. He could have lied to save face and said a fan or opponent called him off the ball. After the game the media questioned him and he showed he is a better man than most by taking the blame instead of deflecting it. Classy dude, I’ll always cheer for him no matter what jersey he wears.
The Padres are going to have to get VERY creative to find a taker for Hosmer, and that $60 M still left, despite several teams needing a first baseman. Far too many options out there
(Freeman, Rizzo, Matt Olson-Likely).
Call me crazy, but the ‘Sox can WIN the offseason, once the lockout is over, by trading ( and dont scream) Casas to Oakland with another player and cash, for Matt Olson. His left handed power would put up even bigger numbers in Fenway, than in Oakland, and put a dagger in the Yankees. Olson is still affordable going into his arb years.
Strike while the iron is hot!
The Myers idea has some legs. If we don’t land Suzuki, Myers is not a horrible option for RF. There are names out there like Weathers, Morejon and Paddack that Preller could be convinced to move.
Morejon might be had just for taking on Myers salary. Weathers would require salary + a prospect, and Paddack would cost salary + a good prospect.
But those are live arms that could help a lot in the future, with only a fringy cost in the present.
Starving – YOU ARE CRAZY!!!
The absurdity of your comment deserved this response.
Dalbec is SO much better than Olsen it’s ridiculous.
Casas will be SO much better than Olsen in 2 years.
Keep your day job!!
I agree in general, but see no reason why we can’t compete this year. The obvious issue is that there are four teams in the division with 91+ wins. We could win 92 again and still finish 4th.
But we should have a very good team.
That’s all well and good but ownership and/or Bloom are wasting a very talented core. They should’ve been all in until Devers or Bogaerts wanted to move on. What a shame that the talent on the team is being wasted for an unguaranteed future.
You want to see wasted talent, check out the Angels. The Sox are in transition, have been since the middle of ‘19. Bloom is doing his best to make the team competitive till the next core of young stars finds their way to the bigs.
NYSoxFan – What Bloom is doing was accurately portrayed in your comments. The end result couldn’t be farther from the truth.
FIRST – The farm system boost is solely from Mayer and Yorke and that’s not a Bloom acquisition it’s a bonus for being horrible the season before. I don’t believe that’s a plus in Bloom’s favor I consider it a huge minus.
SECOND – The Red Sox farm system has long been better than TBs. Starting with the graduation of Bogaerts nearly a decade ago it consistently produces excellent talent for the major league team. Rankings are for fans who know nothing about the real purpose of a farm system.
THIRD – There is a huge difference between good commitments and bad commitments and the length of the contract is irrelevant only the quality of the commitment matters. Mentioning Hanley and Price in the same sentence is totally unfair. Hanley was a massive mistake and Price wasn’t. Panda was a massive mistake and Sale wasn’t.
A GM uses data and trending to forecast the future. Price and Sale had massive success leading up to their time in Boston. The fact that two ELITE pitchers have NOT done as well in Boston speaks volumes to the pitching program in Boston not the players. A GM acquires the best possible players and DD did just that. Hanley, Panda and more recently Barnes, Richards, E-Rod and JBJ are all horrible choices by the GM.
FOURTH – The 2021 season was an aberration due to NYY, TOR and even TB under performing. The team has dropped talent significantly due to the loss of Mookie never being replaced. Also, the idea that Mookie’s and half of Price’s money ($43M) has been replaced with $12M to JBJ, $10M to Paxton, $9.375M for Barnes, $7M to Wacha and $5M to Hill ($43.375M) shows how bad Bloom is as a GM. Swapping 1 superstar and 1 fading SP for a one-dimensional CF that has already been cut, an injured SP that hasn’t done well recently, an aging journeyman SP and even more aging SP is a HUGE talent step down and a complete waste of $43M!!
FIFTH – Your last statement about Hosmer and Myers makes no sense. The original plan by DD was to have 2022 the last year before a retool. Core players like Mookie, Sale and Devers would remain and based on performance he would either extend Bogaerts if he had performed well enough to opt out and he would be in a position to bump Benny and Devers. His plan made perfect sense because he would have had a core group to build on based on the environment at the end of 2022.
Now Bloom goes into 2023 with significantly less since there is no Mookie and he hasn’t been replaced. The talent level of the team was planned to be a split between the haves and have nots now the Bloom plan is to expand the middle priced guys and reduce the high cost/high talent guys. In 2023 the haves would be Betts, Sale and Devers and that left 3 more spots for haves and the market would need to be read to determine best fit for 3 high priced players. The have nots were going to all the farm system graduates including Dalbec, Casas, Duran, Mata, Houck and anyone else that developed by the end of 2022. Boston would have been in a far superior position going into 2023 than it will be as of now.
Bloom’s 2023 will have less stars with Sale and Devers being the only all-star level players. Mayer and Yorke will be a year away and it may take a few years for them to be all-star level. So if you think 2022 looks bad as I do, 2023 looks even worse due to the inability of Bloom to land big name stars and also his lack of desire to land big name stars. EVERYONE has seen the TB model doesn’t work unless you enjoy being a bride’s maid and with four rings in 15 years I would hope the Boston fan base would be clamoring for another after Bloom’s 5 year drought.
I think it’s fair to say I’m not close to your viewpoint on the state of the Red Sox. They are in total chaos without a plan. They have a goal that probably isn’t achievable but there is no plan that has been communicated to the fans except that money will not exceed the luxury tax and somehow untalented players who can play multiple positions will create sustained winning while ticket prices, concessions and parking will continue to climb!!
FYI those same Red Sox marketing guys are selling swamp land in Florida!!! hahaha
The pitching wasn’t exceptional last year, but the starters were remarkably healthy, and the team has lost a lot of reliable innings while – so far – only signing volatile/injury risk arms to replace them. ERod/Richards/Perez/Ottavino/Robles is 60% of last year’s first half rotation and amounts to, what, about 500ip? I will take the under, on Wacha, Hill, two months of Paxton, and an extra three months of Sale throwing 500ip between them. I think losing ERod will sting more than expected. They need to add multiple arms and a right fielder.
This FA starting pitching isn’t particularly “wow” must get one. If Red Sox are in need of SP and wouldn’t cost them a ton, a trade would be the best option. If they doesn’t fit the bill, keep what they have. The market for starters in the FA class right now, is no better than what they currently have. Just get some big arms that can eat innings to reduce innings pitched by the back of the rotation. About the second way through a lineup with the backend of the rotation, the guys get beat up badly. Get a few former SP as the major league level that was moved to the bullpen. They are a dime a dozen and even with a trade, it wouldn’t cost much. Like a low A ball player or even cash considerations.
I’m speaking more to the number of more or less league average/slightly below average innings lost from last year’s staff, not necessarily where the arms are coming from. I’d be pretty happy to bring Richards back, actually, although you gotta figure someone else gives him a clearer shot at a rotation spot.
I think a Chad Kuhl could battle for back end rotation spot or end up in long relief in the pen. He’s a free agent and league minimum on a minors contract, he’d be a nice experiment.
If the Sox lose out on Suzuki i expect they will look towards Jorge Soler or Andrew McCutchen on short term deals. I would not expect them to go after Castellanos. Michael Conforto could be interesting (but not a right handed hitter)
Soler yes, Cutch no. His best days are long gone
Rsox – Where does the money come from?
$6.275M isn’t much and surely every player mentioned doesn’t fit the budget and Bloom was hired to not exceed the CAP so if Boston got those players they would have to give up Sale, Bogaerts or Eovaldi since they can’t move Price’s remaining money! hahaha
An outfield of Kris Bryant, Hernandez and Verdugo would be very nice. JBJ as a 4th outfielder.
Arroyo and JBJ makes sense as a platoon. JBJ as a defensive sub option for either corner OF in close/late situations.
How tf is JBJ making 17.5 mil lmao
9 mil JBJ
9.5 million for 2022 then either 12mil or bought out for 8mil in 2023. So in all likelihood he gets 17.5mil for one year which is absolutely absurd and worthy of the lmao and will deserve a lmmfao if they give him the extra 4mil to stick around in 2023.
Bloom views the $17.5M as acceptable, figuring he’ll get some value from JBJ and he purchased two prospects to keep expanding the farm. It’s not a bad deal from the perspective.
He’d have to be a disaster to not be picked up in 2024. So it is likely $21.5M/2.
Apparently that’s what Milwaukee thought he was worth.
Bloom has only added mid level prospects in all the deals he has made.to date. None are blue chippers and the majority will probably never make it to Boston or will have minimal impact. Mayo and Yorke were both very high 1st rd picks. Bloom has failed to add even a single top pitching prospect since he arrived.
Bloom has failed to add even a single top pitching prospect since he arrived.
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I heard that about Theo, Ben, and DD, before Bloom. And I never considered that an issue. It doesn’t matter who you develop, it matters how much you develop.
How do you think DD could afford to sign Price & trade for Sale?
The RS could afford Price because Theo & Ben left DD the best lineup in baseball. They could trade for Sale because they had Moncada & Kopech in the minors.
If Bloom can develop the next generation of Betts, Bogaerts, Devers & JBJ, they will have enough payroll space to afford pitching.
Why do guys like Wacha still get major league deals,, let alone over 5M from “smart” front offices?
Similar to Heaney. If they can stop giving up homers, they’d have good numbers. Big if though
Budget tells me Soler if they miss out on Schwarber.
As they need a RH bat, I’m doubtful Bloom has Schwarber on his wish list.
Kris Bryant makes so much sense.
Why? He’s gonna get bids to play third, where he’s more valuable, and not coincidentally I think he’s said he prefers that. Sox aren’t gonna do that, at least not in 2022.
In ‘22 Bryant plays some 3rd but mostly RF and first. After JD Martinez is gone next year Bryant plays third mostly and Raffy Devers DHs most the time.
Why would Bryant want to play a full year out of position and than “trust” the Red Sox to move him back to 3rd…..he’s clearly out of position and 1st, and don’t believe he prefers the outfield over 3rd……another rumor assuming the player just wants the logo on his shirt and apartment in the city of Boston!
Bottom line, he most likely will have choices as to where he plays and some of those choices will not force him off 3rd base.
Rocky7: For the money. Bryant played 93 games in the OF in 2021 and only 55 at 3B. So he isn’t that adverse to the OF. Secondly, Red Sox don’t want to take on thay much payroll right now, so the only way he gets signed is if they move Martinez or less likely Devers. Point is, he would be the thirdbaseman from the start.
No question the Red Sox have needs but they’re on their way to meeting them. Hill replaces Perez, Wacha replaces Richards, Paxton replaces Sale and Sale replaces Rodriguez. Houck could be rotation, Whitlock bullpen, maybe closer. Dalbec can replace Renfroe, Casas can replace Schwarber, Duran can replace Gonzalez. I’m talking in terms of at bats, not so much position.
Could use another experienced starter/reliever in the mix and some more relievers. I don’t know if they need to make a big purchase for next year.
whyhayzee – Is $6.275M enough to do what you are suggesting?
If you consider the moves made this off season and the money available, Bloom has painted himself into a corner and can’t get out without ruining the paint job.
The line-up is set and there is no money left.
c – Vazquez
1B – Dalbec
2B – Arroyo
SS – Bogaerts
3B = Devers (aka The Butcher)
LF = Hernandez
CF – JBJ
RF – Verdugo
DH = JD
Bench Plawecki, Duran, TBD1 and TBD2
SP1 – Sale
SP2 – Eovaldi
SP3 to SP5 – (pick 3 from Houck, Pivetta, Wacha and Hill)
CL – Barnes
Relievers (pick 6 and include odd man out from above)
Whitlock, Hernandez, Taylor, Sawamura, Brasier, Davis, Valdez
That is the 26 man roster with Paxton on the IL to start the season.
Another season of career years should yield at least 81 wins!!
Money spent yielded Paxton, Wacha, Hill for $22M OUCH!!
Maybe someday the Sox will make sense with their pitching signings. Paxton and Wacha arent upgrades over Richards and Perez.
Bloom thinks they are .I AM NOT NOT NOT INTERESTED IN THIS BAY AD !!!
Freeman is the man ! Bring back Kike, Trade Casas away for Manaea, keep Dalbec, start Jeter Downs at 2B and done!
1.Hernández CF-2B
2.Devers 3B
3.Bogaerts SS
4.Freeman 1B
5.Martínez DH
6.Verdugo LF
7.Vásquez C
8.Duran RF
9.Downs 2B
Plawecki C, Bradley Jr. OF, Arroyo 2B, Dalbec 1B
1.C.Sale
2.Eovaldi
3.Pivetta
4.Manaea
5.T.Houck
Just trade for Manaea, bring back Kikeand sign Freeman!
If the Red Sox traded Casas he would bring back more then Manea.
What are you doing with Hill and Wacha?
The only way the Sox are trading Casas for a rental is at the trade deadline and only if it is the last piece to a championship run. And even then they may not as they didn’t trade him this past summer
Casas is not being dealt.
On paper they could be better than last year but not make the playoffs. Bradley is still a superior defender and the offense can carry him. It is a question of what they can add for a quality or above average starter and a couple of good bullpen arms.
I still think it is the Rays and Blue Jays division with the Sox and Yankees nipping at their heels. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Orioles lose 110+ without breaking a sweat.
Goose – TB rules thanks to Wander and the return of Glasnow as you stated with TOR continuing it’s climb to the top. The Yankees are a wildcard since they have yet to make their moves for 2022 and Baltimore continues to improve with all their draft picks becoming MLB ready. Very tough division and Boston will need key contributions from JD, Bogey and Devers like last year along with Eovaldi, Sale, Houck and Pivetta.
My areas of concern are
1 – Devers remaining at 3B hurting the pitching for a fifth full season
2 – Arroyo playing well and hitting while staying healthy
3 – Hernandez adjusting to left or right field so JBJ can play center
4 – Overall hitting production from the outfield
5 – Barnes as the closer
The other two obvious concerns are Bloom and Cora but that’s a given for me.
I think there is a good chance 4 teams in the division win 81 or more games while one loses close to 100. I think the playoffs will be even tougher in 2022 because the White Sox will be better, Astros will be better, Angels might actually make the playoffs if Trout is healthy. So DIV winners likely will be TB, HOU, CWS leaving a real battle royale among NYY, BOS, LAA and at least one sleeper.
It’s exciting but I’m also concerned the owners will prolong the lockout until August and another 60 game season will result.
I sometimes don’t understand you, KD17. First you say the TB ways sucks, then you say TB is a lock for the AL East. If TB is going to win the East for the second straight season, their way must work!
Dodger – I’m not someone who wants to have good seasons but never win. Boston went through that for 86 years and I spent a good part of my life watching close but no cigar. That’s why I like DD’s approach.
If there are no rings there are no accomplishments. 86 years of frustration built my belief system.
Sign Schwarber and Suzuki and trade Martinez,Schwarber goes to DH and Suzuki in right
I like brinxsoxcelts idea far more than Goose’s.
Goose has Red Sox trading away best prospect for one year of control of a pitcher. And signing a 30something year old to a long term contract. The exact things Red Sox are moving away from.
Brinx commits far less money, and doesn’t lose prospect, maybe even adds a prospect, while filling needs. They can then wait a year and sign Manaea with freed up money.
I don’t see the Sox trading Martinez. He had multiple chances to leave and stayed which means he must realize the market for him is not any better than it was after the 2017 season. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Sox have shopped him just to gauge interest but the fact that he is still here probably means there wasn’t much
Hmmm..Hot take? Xander Bogaerts is a more desirable short stop than Carlos Correa.
Sure Bogaerts has better bat, but do you know how bad defense Bogaerts is?
Defensive Runs Saved: Correa +12, Bogaerts -9. Thats a 21 run swing. Not to mention what that does to pitchers having to face more batters and their psych.
Bogaerts future is not at SS, so the more ‘desirable shortstop’ has to be Correa.
dennyd – Runs Saved is bogus. Put Devers next to Correa and Bogaerts next to Bregman and the numbers flip. It’s not a valid comparison due to the atrocious defense by Devers. His complete lack of fielding acumen destroys Bogaerts numbers. Bogaerts is still is third in fielding percentage of the top 10 hitting SSs.
Lots of key contributors to the metric values rely on the player next to the shortstop. A run can’t be saved if the numbskull next to you cuts it off and doesn’t get the runner or throws it away. Bogey loses an enormous number of Runs Saved opportunities thanks to Devers.
Matt Barnes makes marks than Eovaldi?!?!
Are we exiting another of John Henry’s short-lived shifts in strategy (read: Lester walks, overpay Price)? Not a fan of the Chaim Bloom / Tampa Red Sox era thus far. ‘Building up the farm,’ such a pacifying statement – the JBJ trade is appalling, all pacified by “prospect” hype.
John Henry would respond himself, but he’s too busy building another shelf for more trophies.
It’s time. Sign one of the remaining free agents to play SS, Correa or Story or trade for a glove first SS, move Bogaerts to third, and move Devers to first/DH. Bogaert’s range has been steadily declining, and Devers has had 4 years to prove he was never a third baseman. Chaim Bloom has said the Sox are looking to add an impact RH bat, and there just happen to be two left in free agency who play SS. Now is the time to make the switch.
KD – Happy New Year to you as well, hope we get to see baseball within a couple months.
I’m definitely on board for a Bryant or Correa signing, but I doubt it’ll happen because Bloom is a Henry puppet just like Cherrington was.
Speaking of Cherrington.
Reynolds and Bednar for Meyer plus 2-3more.
As a jays fan I hope they give Carlos Correa 10 years at 40 a year with a no move……
Bryant makes a lot of sense, especially to hedge on Bogaerts opting out. Devers-Bryant-Casas would provide a great offensive combo for the next run.
Casas is a great prospect. As a Yankee fan I’m envious.
I’d rather see the Red Sox make a move in the bullpen than anywhere else. When your go to bullpen arms in the postseason are starters, or guys that you want to be starters, that’s a problem. I think signing Ryan Tepera and Andrew Chafin (a righty and a lefty) are not sexy at all, but are two totally solid moves to make.
Agree. BP and RF are the two area Red Sox are going to add to, in my opinion. Nothing splashy with Suzuki being the biggest name.
So this article is based solely on a group of owners signing off on a big expenditure?
NOT GOING TO HAPPEN!!
The 2022 roster is all but locked until Bloom trades away more talent. There is $6.275M to spend and just a few holes.
The team is basically set.
C – Vazquez
1B – Dalbec
2B – Hernandez
SS – Bogaerts
3B – Devers
RF – Verdugo
CF – JBJ
LF – TBD = unless Hernandez moves to LF and Arroyo to 2B
DH – JD
4 remaining hitters (13 total)
C – Plawecki
2B – Arroyo (could start at 2B if Hernandez plays LF)
OF – TBD maybe Duran
UT – TBD
SP1 – Sale
SP2 – Eovaldi
SP3 – Wacha (based on cost not talent)
SP4 – Houck
SP5 – Pivetta
SP6 – Hill
SP7 – Paxton (On IL to start year)
CL – Barnes
Stress Inning – Whitlock
Other relievers
Set Up 1 – Brasier
Set UP 2 – Sawamura
Set UP 3 – Davis
Set UP 4 = Hernandez
Set UP 5 – Taylor
That’s 13 pitchers since Paxton starts on the IL.
That’s the 26 man roster to begin the year
There is $6.275M to pick up two bench players
So unless Bloom dumps more talent and salary don’t be getting your hopes up that ownership is going to suddenly do yet another 180 and spend over the cap.
If the cap increases because of the new CBA then middle priced players are conceivable. If the cap lessens then Bloom will need to either move his talented players or try to moved the huge new group of middle class players that now dominates the roster. Middle class players cost $5M to $12M and in Bloom’s case have 1/3 or less of the talent the high priced players. There are a few exceptions who are not vets and make good money while in arbitration years.
IF Boston wants to stay under the cap, Hill is probably the number 3 with Wacha number 6. Duran plays center, JBJ on the bench, and Harrison/Villar is signed to play 2b (I’m confident BOS can find a 2B for less than 6 mil). Kike moves to LF.
The. JBJ trade makes no sense unless Bloom is going to go over the cap, so I think he will. A Suzuki signing makes sense.
My guess is that they are going over. None of the other moves make sense otherwise. I doubt we traded Renfroe unless we have another RFer in mind. And we need at least one BP arm.
Dodger – Interesting perspective. Bloom’s actions since he arrived have been nothing short of bizarre starting with the Mookie situation. You may be right because for Boston to go over after giving up their franchise player to go under and the result is adding a foreign player who we have no idea how he will translate to the MLB game qualifies as bizarre.
I just hope Bloom does no more significant damage before he is fired.
JBJ will be starting. Bloom wants the defense.
Everything depends on the new CBA. I’m hoping for a NL DH and a CBT of 216+. The Sox sign either Schwarber or Suzuki to play OF.
In June the Sox could: 1. call up Casas; 2. trade JD for pitching while freeing up 10M: 3. move Dalbec to 3b; 4. Devers to DH;
All good except JD won’t fetch serious trade value unless the Sox eat some of his salary.
I disagree. If a couple of NL teams are in need of a bat in June 1/2 a yr of JD at 10 M will be a bargain. They will be thinking of the JD of 2017 motivated by a need for a new contract.
Sale will be back to 95%. Please stop mentioning sonny gray. God awful
Just go sign Correa it gives Mayer plenty of time to develop, covers a Bogey departure, he’s a right handed bat & it totally swings the defense on the left side of our diamond! Arroyo frank is being overlooked in my opinion he needs ABs & to stay healthy in 2022! Mark it down he’ll do the job if he does! Ya got Kike as a stop gap & if they sign Correa Bogey is at 2b most days for a year. Nick Yorke will be ready by 2023 if Arroyo faltered in a utility role.