Last week, Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic wrote that Seiya Suzuki fielded interest from ten to twelve major league teams before the lockout. The identities of all those clubs aren’t known, but the Giants, Mariners, Rangers, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Yankees had all been tied to the NPB star in the past.
During his conversation with Baggarly, Suzuki also downplayed the possibility he’d return to Japan for another year because of concerns about the lockout. Whenever Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association do reach an accord on the next collective bargaining agreement, Suzuki will have twenty days to hammer out a deal with an MLB team under the terms of his unique cross-lockout posting experience.
One could argue Suzuki’s landing spot is tougher to peg than any other free agent’s. For one, different teams might have disparate evaluations on his projection. The broad consensus MLBTR received when speaking with various team personnel at the outset of the winter was that Suzuki projected as a well-rounded, productive everyday right fielder. Yet there’s likely more team-to-team variance on Suzuki’s outlook than there would be on those of players like Kyle Schwarber or Nick Castellanos, both of whom have lengthy MLB track records to evaluate.
Suzuki is also uncommonly young for a free agent. Having turned 27 years old in August, he should have a few seasons of peak performance ahead of him. That could open an opportunity for an immediate non-contender to jump into the bidding. Even if the club isn’t planning to compete next season, adding Suzuki could be a way for a team currently amidst a rebuild or reboot to proactively land a hopeful first-division regular for a season or two down the line.
Perhaps Suzuki’s asking price could help narrow down the field. There’s not been any indication what he and his representatives are targeting from a financial perspective. MLBTR forecasted a five-year, $55MM contract entering the offseason. That kind of deal could prove too costly for the most payroll-conscious clubs. Yet Baggarly indicated the low-payroll Rays are expected to be involved in Suzuki’s market, so team spending habits alone may not narrow down the field much.
For the purposes of this poll, let’s assume Suzuki makes the jump to MLB this offseason. What does the MLBTR readership think? Where will Suzuki begin his MLB career?
(poll link for app users)
The only way he becomes a fit for the mariners is if they trade Haniger which won’t happen. It’s sox or giants
Might go to the Mariners…heard they had a guy named Suzuki who was pretty decent back in the day…
Their Suzuki was truly great, much better than the version that played for the Marlins.
Ichiro had 200 hits in each of his first ten MLB seasons, but Ichiro and Seiya are as different as Rod Carew and Bobby Abreu.
No, he’s talking about Mac Suzuki. Perennial Cy Young candidate. Never won, but in theory he was elgible. He really put it together in 2000 to have a season that was actually ok
Exactly right. How did you know?
the guardians should do it!
They should, but they never get in on these signings.
Cleveland makes sense to me.
Cleveland always plays it wayyyyy too cautious with these international signings and prefers to stay on the sidelines. I wish they’d still their necks out and take a chance.
As far as a direct signing of Suzuki by the Guardians, that seems doubtful.. He would fit nicely in Seattle but would create a glut that can be exploited. I.O.W., Suzuki would not be the only piece the mariners would be looking for to complete their team & make the playoffs in 2022.. The Mariners will be looking to “keep” their top three or four prospects (julio rodriguez, noelvi marte, emerson hancock and george kirby). Cleveland doesn’t need prospects, but they’ll surely take / add guys their personnel acquisition model fits.. The Mariners next priorities have to be a ML ready / ML SP and a 2B.. Cleveland has what the Mariners want. If it’s Suzuki going to Seattle, then the Guardians would love to have any one or a group that includes Haniger, healthy Lewis &/or White, and a prospect or two from a group that includes a catcher like Ford, a LHRP like Williamson and/or an upside / potential starting pitcher that fits their model (Levi Stoudt).. Tyler Freeman and Zach Plesac might be enough to cover some/most of the Mariner contingent.. Thoughts?..
I hope Boston, because at least that would make the Hunter Renfroe/JBJ trade make sense
I picked the Rangers. I could see them continuing to spend like drunken sailors.
They already have spent like drunken sailors. Yes how bout one more?
Giants really need some more right handed hitters. Been unimpressed with their off season approach so far, but then again I didn’t see them winning the NL West last year either.
Going to a west coast team. Probably the Giants. He’s not signing with the Red Sox.
wrong
Hard to argue with that analysis, LOL
More like KvetcherFan69.
The irony is that I was responding to RJ.
Imma make the case for the Astros.
They need a true OF to play with the young center fielders and the two near DHs on the corners. Use him in all three OF spots primarily center field and give the youngsters chances when guys need the inevitable off day with Yordan inked into the DH spot.
Tstats:
I still think Correa will be back with the Astros (for fewer years than Seager) and that they will have no money left for other expenditures.
Yankees will go with Story, Red Sox will re-do Bogaerts to prevent the opt-out and Phillies will sign Suzuki and trade for Kiermaier.
Yankees are not signing Story or any shortstop for more then one year. They have several upcoming shortstops ( especially Volpe). I could actually see them signing no one at any position for more then a one year contract.
After a year or two, they can move Story to the keystone.
Prospects bust. Plus, if they want to trade for someone like Olson, they’ll have to include one of their SS prospects, which will place even more importance on the other one. There’s plenty of room for either Story or Correa, and one of their SS’s. Collect talent.
The Yankees (and other big-market teams) want to see. the new CBA for two reasons: 1) What’s the new luxury tax thresholds; 2) Will there be an expansion of the postseason.
If there’s an expansion of postseason teams, then 88 wins gets a team in. If they don’t, they’ll need to shoot for over 90 wins. That will impact how big they go on free agency.
Here is something to think about: The Yankees have been linked to Brandon Mayea from Cuba, who is the top ranked IFA player for next year. He could have been eligible this year ( due to his birthday), but is deferring until 2023. If the Yankees sign a Story or Correa they lose $500k that can be set aside for Mayea.
Good thing they didnt’ sign any Free Agent OFers a few years back; otherwise, they wouldn.t have any room for Rob Refsnyder.
There’s always room for Refsnyder…..or Blake Swihart
I can see how you think that but I just don’t think Crane is gonna open the pocket books for this one
Tstats:
Astros: Correa for eight years at $35 million per year, no trade clause, $280 million.
Phillies have too many other needs. Yankees can go with Story and move him to keystone when their prospects are ready. Mariners are not spending that much.
Just saw that Correa moved from Morris to Boras. My eight years $280 million “compromise” theory for Correa and Astros seems a lot less likely now.
He will be a Ranger as he fits perfectly for present and future needs.
Agree
rangers13:
Sure, he’s a fit for the Rangers, but he’s also a good fit for several other teams as well. Just because he a fit on one team doesn’t mean that team will sign him.
I’m really hoping Boston as well. Bloom traded Renfroe right before the lockout it seems he must of been at least pretty sure he was getting Suzuki or at the very least Schwarber. I guess we will find out after the lockout but my guess is Boston or SF.
“Pretty sure”
While I picked the Red Sox as his landing spot, it’s very unlikely Bloom is sure, or pretty sure, he’s going to land him. Too many teams showed interest. Bloom traded Renfroe knowing he got his career year, which he cashed in for some prospects to add more depth to the system. Bloom more likely believes that even if he doesn’t land Suzuki, he can replace Renfroe’s production elsewhere. Most teams have multiple plans to address needs.
It’s possible that is the case. The problem is it weakens the Red Sox next year a year after they made it to the ALCS. I may be wrong but something tells me Bloom is playing chess when a lot of his detractors are playing checkers we shall see after the lockout ends.
If you look at the Sox’ projected starters, there are an awful lot of lefty bats in the OF, And JBJ is kinda iffy at this point, as is Duran.. I know other people like him, but I am pretty sure that if money is an issue, the Sox will be in on this. Especially because for a team like the Sox who talent-wise are on the edge of the playoff race, a couple extra wins might be the edge to get them into the playoffs (like last year…)
If they do not get rhis guy, they will need a trade or maybe a signing of McCutcheon.
tango – I’ll ask the same question I’ve asked others, why does it matter if the entire outfield bats left? What matters is the lineup, no?
And as it stands right now, the Sox will have 5 RHB’s in their everyday lineup:
Vazquez/Plawecki
Xander
Dalbec
Hernandez
Martinez
To complain that 3 of the 4 LHB’s in the lineup are OF’ers is silly.
When the other side starts a lefty, it is more effective to be able to have at least one righty bat out there in addition to the infielders. And also, frankly, Verdugo is the only one of the three that I trust to be a reliable regular — Durran and Bradley were bad at the big league level last year, and injuries happen..
RobM
Bloom more likely believes that even if he doesn’t land Suzuki, he can replace Renfroe’s production elsewhere.
====================================
That’s my thinking as well. He traded Renfroe because he preferred Suzuki.
And if he doesn’t land Suzuki, he turns his attention to Story.
Joe – Why would Bloom sign Story to a 9-figure contract with Mayer knocking on the door within 2-3 years, and especially when Schwarber can be had for approximately half of what Story gets?
Sorry but I think Suzuki is Plan A, Schwarber is Plan B, and Story is Plan C.
Whoever voted “A’s” is clearly not taking this poll seriously.
To be fair, the 74-88 2011 Oakland A’s signed Yoenis Cespedes in the offseason.
Nobody saw that coming.
How about the 1.58% who voted the Pirates!
hopefully its Philly but I doubt it.
Redsox. Easy one
I picked the Red Sox. They could use a replacement for Renfroe, and Suzuki has the potential to be better than Renfroe. He’s young and won’t break the bank. Seems to fit the profile that Bloom would like.
I am guessing it will be either Boston or SF. I went with SF because it is closer to Japan.
Nowhere because they still don’t have a CBA in mid January
I’m seeing comments about teams being outbid, and this team won’t spend enough to get him, etc. But these guys are different from players in the states – sure, money & contract length matter, but he won’t just go to the highest bidder. Comfort factor will be huge. And that will be based on factors other than money. That said, I picked the Red Sox, but I could also see the M’s too.
I like this, and for the same reason I think the Rangers should slide into the comfort zone as well having courted the likes of Yu Darvish in years past.
Really hoping for Philly, but my gut tells me Boston.
I wish I could realistically vote for the White Sox as Suzuki would be a perfect given their RF need, but I would be shocked if they went for it. No one expects them to open up their wallets, and they probably don’t want to block Cespedes/Colas, even though no one really knows if either of those guys will pan out.
At that price rate, and with his batter’s eye, he screams White Sox signing, and they have a need.
Suzuki makes a ton of sense for the Braves if they can’t come to an agreement with Freeman and lose him to another team. Also could see the Tigers going after him pretty hard.
Come to the Malinel
I assumed Japanese prefer West Coast teams. I was surprised when Daiske Matzusaka went to BOS and even more when Yu Darvish went to TEX.
Since Hideo Nomo became a MLB pitcher, you can’t make a full all star position team of Japanese imports. Many of the hyped Japanese players don’t become stars in the MLB. Ichiro Suzuki, Shohei Oktani and Hideki Matsui are the exceptions. C Kenji Jojima, 3B Akinori Iwamura, 2B Tadahito Iguchi and CF Nori Aoki each had two good seasons then played at replacement level afterwards. SS Kazuo Matsui and RF Kosuke Fukudome never played up to their hype.
It would be good for Baseball to have another star player but Seiya Suzuki is not a lock. His defensive numbers need explanation.
Japanese players are like anyone else. Sure, region matters, but money is often the bottom line. It just so happens that West Coast teams actually spend money.
But a number of Japanese players have gone through Chicago, for example. Maybe not the top tier players, but he isn’t really top tier either.
‘His defensive numbers need explanation.’
Seriously? If you’re not going to watch uploaded games or clips, at least read scouting reports.
Nobody is questioning his defense.
Nobody is questioning his defense…in Japan that is….but what about US ballparks that play unquestionably different than anything he has played in during his career…….questioning his defense is a fair and honest comment and you don’t have to watch “uploaded” games, or read scouting reports on Japanese games to question how his glove will actually play especially if he signs with a team that plans on playing him in CF…..
Oh, right, I forgot that dreaded US-ballpark factor.
Disregard everything I said. No need to watch anything or trust scouting reports.
Just makes sense for Seattle. A impact power bat in a area predominantly asian market. Remember icbiro ?? He will be loved like Ichiro here especially if he proves his worth and guides Seattle to the promised land
The A’s came out of nowhere to land Yoenis Cespedes and the A’s outfield is suspect with Piscotty a sunken cost and Laureano suspended for a few more months.
As far as a direct signing of Suzuki by the Guardians, that seems doubtful.. He would fit nicely in Seattle but would create a glut that can be exploited. I.O.W., Suzuki would not be the only piece the mariners would be looking for to complete their team & make the playoffs in 2022.. The Mariners will be looking to “keep” their top three or four prospects (julio rodriguez, noelvi marte, emerson hancock and george kirby). Cleveland doesn’t need prospects, but they’ll surely take / add guys their personnel acquisition model fits.. The Mariners next priorities have to be a ML ready / ML SP and a 2B.. Cleveland has what the Mariners want. If it’s Suzuki going to Seattle, then the Guardians would love to have any one or a group that includes Haniger, healthy Lewis &/or White, and a prospect or two from a group that includes a catcher like Ford, a LHRP like Williamson and/or an upside / potential starting pitcher that fits their model (Levi Stoudt).. Tyler Freeman and Zach Plesac might be enough to cover some/most of the Mariner contingent.. Thoughts?..
Seattle needs a third baseman and they aren’t likely trading first round picks for pitching. Rebuilding clubs just don’t do things like that before they’re actually in contention.
Further, they aren’t likely trading any outfielders slotted for the active roster. Why woukd they trade a healthy Lewis? They need a healthy Lewis! Haniger is the lone veteran in the outfield and one of their only established offensive threats.
There is no ‘glut’ of outfielders in Seattle. Haniger has just a year of control, Lewis might be their DH, Kelenic hasn’t established himself yet and Rodriguez hasn’t even debuted.
@gson
I agree with Stevil. Seattle doesn’t have a glut of OF’s yet. But it is coming in 2023. I expect Kelenic and Julio to establish themselves this year. We will also get another year of Fraley. Hopefully, Trammel’s bat shows up and Lewis gets healthy. I am also a big fan of Deloach. Dipoto has made it clear he isn’t trading his top prospects. I have advocated for a trade with the Guardians, however, to balance out their respective farm rosters. The Guardians have too many middle infielders and the M’s could use one. I would target Deloach the M’s No. 6 prospect if I were Cleveland in a 1 for 1 trade. DeLoach is going to be blocked by Suzuki, Trammel, Lewis and possibly Julio Rodriquez.
Cleveland might be more interested in ready-now players for one last push with Ramirez. This might be his last season in Cleveland, especially if draft pick compensation disappears with the new CBA.
I think a lot of these less-hyped up & coming outfielders for Seattle (Trammell, Deloach, Marlowe, etc.) would be available, but with the ability to option these guys, Seattle would have something they haven’t had in ages: depth.
This lockout leaves plenty of time to overthink everything!
They passed on all of the FA’s that might have improved their roster for this year. In my view, their OF roster is too weak to carry the team far this year. They would be wise to trade Ramirez before he becomes very expensive. They need to be looking a year or two ahead, The Guardians have a lot of young talent and plenty of options to Ramirez at 3B.
DeLoach would be a No. 2 prospect in most teams farm system. The M’s also have Ford who is so talented he could move to outfield. Meanwhile the M’s are shopping for a big bat for the infield because we have nobody on the farm that can hit his weight. This off season is interesting because the M’s could make a number of moves.
I don’t disagree, but I don’t think they’re likely going to kick off a rebuild after the rebranding. Not immediately, anyway. Easy to see them reassessing at the deadline.
I don’t know if we should really look at Deloach and Ford the same way, because their ETAs are likely a few years apart. Marlowe is comparable. Larson is a wild card in all this. He’s a little old for his level, but he could be a solid depth piece before both of them. Then there’s a personal favorite, Alberto Rodriguez. He’s right behind all three.
But this is one of the good things about Seattle’s farm. There’s a wave of talent projected to debut virtually every year, and the international amateur signings are only making things look better.
I think he’d prefer the Giants but will end up a Yankee.
Angels and play short.
The skill set plays anywhere; I’m sure it will be all about the Benjamin’s.
Either the Orioles or Pirates make sense.
Agree man….its always about the money first!
Suzuki: I’m going to sign with Baltimore, so I can travel to the US just to finish in last place? No, thanks.
I’d rather take a chance on Suzuki than Schwarber. Schwarber definitely has a longer track record albeit a sketchy one that consists of a few decent runs but otherwise blah and his fielding is atrocious. You can get what Schwarber offers for a lot less money than he wants.
Suzuki is a much bigger risk, as he could be a complete bust in the MLB, but I think he has a higher ceiling.
Detroit is a city in Michigan.
Koji Uehara is pitching him on Boston.
The Benjamins are and will be pitching him around the league until he signs……Uehara pitching him don’t mean sh_t…if Boston offers the best money he’ll sign there but if they don’t he’s signing somewhere with the 10 teams or so that will be in on him……not to be harsh…..but please don’t bother with the “his buddy/countryman says he’ll love it here” stuff.
Its always about the money!
Just like it was with Ohtani? He went to LA for less than he could have gotten with Texas or Seattle.
We don’t know what’s driving his decision the most, but it isn’t likely just about money. He could get a significant contract with a number of teams. He may very well be considering a number of other things, just like he suggested in The Athletic piece.
Not sure what Ohtani’s motivation was….nor really do you, and if your choice several years ago was either Texas, Seattle, or Orange County Calif…..which would you have chosen (no disrespect to either city) but in most cases, its always about the money….certainly there isn’t any significant attraction to Boston as compared to any other city/team which basically was my point…..of course with all due respect to “the Athletic”.
Actually, we do know, because he stated that his relationship with Billy Eppler played a role, as did the location, the personnel, and what he believed was a winning team that would have sustained success.
At that time, Seattle had their old core in place. Many thought they could make a run. Turned out none of those teams were good enough.
rocky7:
“…if your choice several years ago was either Texas, Seattle, or Orange County Calif…”
Is this sarcasm? You’re talking about Ohtani right? IIRC there were about 28 teams that made viable offers to Ohtani, meaning he actually had way far more choices than just Texas, Seattle and Anaheim. Basically his choices were damn well anywhere he wanted.
I brought up Texas and Seattle because those were the teams that could offer Ohtani more money than LA. Obviously, every team in baseball had interest. Not every team had meetings with him, though.
The point was that his decision wasn’t just money-driven and Suzuki’s choice may not be just about money, either.
I hear about his athleticism but see he’s really only played the corners. Does anyone know if he is a legit option in CF or more in line with a fill in option there?
I was just about to post the same thing. About half the posts in this thread talk about a team signing him to convert him to a CF. Not only would some GMs hesitate to do that, Suzuki might not want to do that.
According to BR- Suzuki has only one game in CF. I’m thinking that moving to the US and playing in the Show is enough pressure, I doubt he is going to want to switch to CF.
For that reason, I think he goes to the RS. There won’t be any issue about where he will play, the RS (probably) have more money, and Koji thinks Suzuki is going to Boston.
And Koji is never wrong. And could probably still make our BP.
Wow not surprised at your prediction as you always pray at the Red Sox alter as as a fan as I do at the Yankee alter….but does Koji have any stock tips we all can use….after all he is never wrong…right?
He only gives stock tips to RS fans.
These comments…
Angels new shortstop!!!!
If the Rays unload Kiermaier, to the Phillies for example, I think the Rays make a serious attempt to sign him.
Champa Bay!!!
West Coast teams definitely have an advantage here. Direct flights home, larger Japanese populations in the cities of Seattle, SF, and parts of LA and OC.
My gut tells me the best combination of fit, dollars, and living conditions for Suzuki add up to SF or Seattle.
I’m going to hope it is SF but put it at even money.
I agree, though there may be other considerations, such as the up & coming prospects and future projections, clubhouse environment, match ups, etc.
There was a report out not too long ago that suggested Seattle was no longer viewed as a sour destination among free agents (this had something to do with the Robbie Ray signing, if I remember correctly). They’re earning a reputation for being a fun team, largely in part due to Scott Servais and the coaching staff.
But of course, nobody knows what he’s thinking. I don’t think anything would really surprise me.
There’s a history with the Yankees Texas and Red Sox signing players coming from Japan.
There’s a history with the Angels, Giants, A’s, and Dodgers as well. Then there’s Seattle.
West coast teams do seem to be more popular with Japanese players,
Oh but that Beantown chowder will turn his head no doubt…after all Koji says!
Koji & Dice-K will be wearing their WS rings as they pitch him on Duck Boat Parades.
Not the Jays, they have been ‘linked” to every single Japanese and Korean international FA for decades..