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I don’t quite understand the logic behind saying Theo earned the 3 rings instead of being lucky, and then immediately (and correctly) acknowledging that he was handed a very talented Red Sox team, and Lucchino/Henry surrounded him with a very talented front office, not to mention the 2nd-highest payroll in MLB.
It was on-the-job training for Theo, most everyone realized that back then, it wasn’t until his childish gorilla suit resignation that he finally broke free from Lucky and began calling his own shots.
I think you’re missing Mark’s main point that it’s extremely difficult to win even one WS title, even when a talented roster is inherited. Look at all the talent that’s been on the Dodger’s rosters over the last decade, the consecutive division titles, and yet have only one title to show for it.
Same for those Braves teams of the 90’s, and early 2000’s. They won 11 straight division titles. They won 14 division titles over 15 seasons, finishing in 2nd place once, and they’ve got only one WS win over that stretch.
Theo took the Cubs job in 2011, and won 5 years later. I think you’re vastly underestimating how hard winning one title is, One is not luck, and three confirms that it isn’t.
Theo built winners in places where Championships were not won in 200 years combined. Thats no small achievement
tad – I agree it’s difficult to win a title, but it’s certainly easier when you have the ability to outspend 28 other teams … which is exactly what the Red Sox did, they had the 2nd-highest payroll in MLB for both 2004 and 2007.
And beyond the talented and highly-paid team Theo inherited, and the brilliant front office people that surrounded him, he also had luck. I don’t understand how any of the writers here could dispute that after repeatedly writing “the postseason is a crapshoot”. So certain GM’s get credit for their team winning championships, but all other GM’s are just “lucky”? Really?
Dave Roberts was safe by a half-second, if he gets called out do the Sox win the WS? Tony Clark’s liner down the right field corner, if the ball had bounced just an inch lower and stayed in play do the Sox win the WS? They got so many lucky breaks it was surreal.
I give Theo all the credit in the world for the Cubs winning a title. It’s just the 2004 championship, and to a lesser degree the 2007 one, that he gets far too much credit for.
Well, of course it’s easier when the team spends money, but it still isn’t easy. Look how many teams that did spend a lot, but still didn’t win. The aforementioned Dodgers were hit with a $150M CBT from 2013 to 2017 with zero titles.
The fact that Theo had a talented FO team should be counted in his favor, not against it. He controlled who worked for him. He could have replaced anyone, but chose to retain people he recognized as talented.
Every WS winner has a certain amount of luck, injuries, or the lack of, is a big factor in winning, but it takes a lot more than having good luck. It’s useless to worry about if Dave Roberts might have been thrown out. The point is he wasn’t. Every PS game has make or break moments, and the teams that come through win.
I don’t think you can question the 2004 title much less the one in 2007. Theo was in player development before becoming GM. He was GM for two years before winning in 2004. He brought Schilling and Mueller to the Sox, And he was only gone for like 3 month before returning in 2006. There was no GM in his absence.
Do you seriously want to give the credit to Mike Port, whom Theo replaced in 2o02? If not him, are you saying those Sox titles happened in a vacuum? There is no one you can credit more than Theo for building those two WS winning teams.
tad – I thought we all agreed luck plays a part in many championships?
Let me give you a bit of background here. Larry Lucchino became Theo’s mentor going all the way back to Theo’s days as an intern with the Orioles. When Larry went to the Padres, he took Theo with him. And when Larry went to the Red Sox, he took Theo with him.
Larry is the one who gave 27-year-old Theo his first Assistant GM job.
And on November 24, 2002 Larry is the one who made 28-year-old Theo the youngest GM in MLB history..
Because Theo had virtually no experience as an Assistant GM, Larry is the one who surrounded him with experienced baseball men in the front office.
espn.com/mlb/news/2002/1126/1467276.html
“The 28-year-old Epstein was promoted to general manager of the Red Sox on Monday, and the team said it would surround him with more experienced baseball people. Mike Port, who had been interim GM in Boston, and former Phillies GM Lee Thomas have also been offered jobs.”
Larry is the one who hired Bill James, on November 5, 2002.
Larry is the one who hired Bill Lajoie.
Mike Port was with the Sox since 1993 and was VP of Baseball Operations during Theo’s first two seasons as GM.
Lee Thomas was with the Sox since 1998 and remained through Theo’s first years as GM.
Ben Cherington was with the Sox since 1999 and of course eventually replaced Theo after the 2011 season.
I’m guessing you probably aren’t familiar with any of those names, but if you research them you’ll see they had a tremendous amount of experience and success. Cherington, Lee Thomas, Bill James, Bill Lajoie, Mike Port, and Larry Lucchino … that’s an All-Star Cast surrounding Theo and he had absolutely NOTHING to do with hiring any of them. Theo was just a kid learning on the job, still under his mentor’s wing.
As for the players he inherited, look up who brought Manny/Pedro/Damon/Nixon/Varitek/Nomar/Lowe/Wakefield/Youkilis/Mirabelli/Lester/etc.
Look up who acquired the prospects (Hanley and others) that were used to trade for Lowell and Beckett.
And it’s well documented the only reason Ortiz came to the Red Sox was because as soon as he was cut loose by the Twins, Pedro immediately called Theo and demanded that Ortiz get signed. Otherwise Ortiz never would have been signed, because Theo already had Hillenbrand, Millar and the infamous Jeremy Giambi.to cover 1B/DH.
Two things you said I find quite fascinating.
One is that you claim it was hard to win a title in Theo’s second year as GM, despite the enormous amount of talent he had. But Cherington had no problem winning in his second year as GM, despite inheriting an absolute mess after the historic 2011 team collapse.
And you give all the credit for the 2004 and 2007 championships to Theo because he was GM at the time, and no credit to President Larry.
But yet for the 2016 Cubs title, you give all the credit to President Theo and none to the GM Jed Hoyer. Seriously?
Theo always gets 100% credit for success no matter what his title?
Look I’m sure you’re a nice guy and all, but please don’t accuse others of being wrong without doing at least some research first.
And BTW most people realize Theo is not a good person. After Larry gave Theo all the opportunities along the way to eventually becoming the youngest GM in MLB history, Theo developed a massive ego and turned on his longtime mentor. You just don’t do that, you don’t spit on the guy who went out of his way to help you advance your career. Without Larry, probably none of us would have ever heard of Theo.
I think the Tampa Bay Rays are the most likely first to worst team. There is a really good chance they finish behind the Blue Jays, Yankees and Red Sox. If Baltimore somehow figures out how to become a 4th place team that could be all it takes for the Rays to finish in last place. I don’t think it’s likely any team goes first to worst but the top 4 in the AL East are all so good it means Baltimore moving up one spot is the only fluke thing that would need to happen for Tampa to finish last because Toronto, Boston and New York could all overtake them right now and no one would be shocked.
Sorry. He hadn’t answered my question yet when I posted it here. I know it’s a long shot but any team going first to worst is a long shot. Baltimore is definitely a terrible team but I don’t think it should be considered impossible for any team to finish in 4th place. They would still have a losing record and miss the playoffs. If some of the Orioles young top prospects like Adley Rustchman hit the scene and go gangbusters I think it’s more likely Baltimore finishes in 4th place than any other defending champion from a different division finishes in last place. If the Orioles do move up just one spot it’s really a flip of the coin if the Rays finish in last.
So the real question is: What’s more likely? One of the White Sox, Brewers, Giants, Astros or Braves finishing in last place? Or the Orioles moving up one spot and finishing in second to last place? I would guess the Orioles moving up one spot is the most likely. If that were to happen, the Rays are easily the most likely candidate to go from first to worst.
You may be onto something. Baltimore will be better “soon” and the Rays could hit the proverbial wall with their pitching. Hypothetically, if Kloobs goes down, Patiño flounders a little, McClanahan stutters, Baz isn’t ready… it will be tough to navigate the East waters on a series-to-series basis. Of course this is all fantasy at this point, but you may be barking up the right tree.
I’d say the white Sox are the closest to go 1st to worst. Everything that could go wrong did for the Twins. Cleveland Indians, I mean Guardians, still have strong rotation (if healthy) & interesting position players on the current squad & in AA & AAA that could contribute next season. The Royals have very interesting rotation, top prospects knocking loudly on the door, need to address the ‘pen. Detroit has improved and are still improving, plus the addition of Spencer Torkelson & Riley Greene.
I still believe that Suzuki ends up in Boston. He has a position wide open for him there, he gets to join a competitive team and apparently Koji Uehara is a close friend who is telling him that Boston is the best city to play in. I understand the west coast is closer to home for him but how many times per year is he really going to travel back to Japan? I don’t see any opportunity for him to go home during the regular given the MLB schedule except maybe for All Star week. Then he can spend his entire offseason in Japan too. So maybe he travels back to Japan a maximum of 3 times per year? (Once more during the offseason if he needs to be part of some team meetings or workouts in the U.S.). Regardless, it’s not I nearly enough to make the west coast a requirement for him to play there. Also, the time difference isn’t a huge factor for Japanese fans to watch his games either. A 7:00pm east coast game would be on at 9:00am in Japan while a 7:00pm west coast game would be on at 12:00pm in Japan. So long as Boston offers him the most money (or close enough to it), I could see him playing in Boston for sure.
I could see him playing in Boston, sure, but I think you’re overestimating some aspects. The Uehara opinion, and the wide open position spot, e.g. I doubt he’s depending on one person’s opinion, and he has position spots wide open to him on multiple teams. If he’s smart he’ll listen to multiple opinions.
Uehara can’t tell him about playing for the M’s, Giants, Philly, etc. Plus there are a lot of teams that have great supportive fanbases, like Boston
If what happened with Ohtani is any indication, he’ll travel to the ballparks of the teams he’s interested in, see the facilities, and meet the coaching staffs. And the feedback he gets on things like the coaching staffs are probably more important, than Uehara’s opinion about Boston being the best city to play in.
I mean Boston has a good shot at him, no doubt, but nothing’s a lock. And other Japanese players have preferred the West Coast, so how much that means to Suzuki is unknown.
One of the reasons some of them like the west coast is for their friends and family to come to him. He might even have some friends in Japan that routinely go to California already. I doubt that’s the case with the East coast and if it were it’s unlikely his friends pick Boston as the place to go. I’m guessing most people that travel from Japan to the East coast are usually going to New York or maybe Florida.
During the season it would be much easier for him to get his friends and family to visit him on the West coast. I think he could sign with Boston if they offer him the most money. I’m guessing all the Giants, Mariners or Dodgers would have to do is match Boston’s offer to get him to change his mind, though. Boston may very well offer top dollar, though. They’ve done it before and that would make them the favorite.
I don’t think we are really going to get any serious idea of where Suzuki will sign until the lockout is over. He could just be releasing all this info just to keep his name in the headlines and get the interested MLB teams to come with bigger offers once the lockout ends. That really is the most likely scenario in this situation. He probably wants the most money first, to play for a serious contender second and play closest to home third.
isn’t the West Coast a thing that allowed for a player’s home games go be easier to watch? I cant imagine flying to, say, New York or Boston is much more a pain than to Seattle or San Fran nowadays.
I think time zone might be underestimated. Respectful culture over there. Friends, family, baseball fans in general. Lots of 3am Japan time games on the East Coast.
I will make my fortune by going around to garage sales and buying TiVos then selling them to the Japanese as the hot new American timesaving gadget that will allow them to watch Suzuki and catch their beauty rest.
In the same time zone. It sucks when the Giants go East.
Hammer:
I agree with everything, except his releasing info to try and get a better deal. Baseball execs aren’t going to be swayed by what happens in the media. They all have their evaluations of him, what they think he’s worth, and what number they’d be unwilling to exceed, if the price gets too high.
Tad: That’s true but if it’s a good exec they will try to sign him for less than their evaluation first if they think they can get away with it. I’m sure Alex Anthopolous valued Acuna at more than $100 million and Albies at more than $35 million but those were the offers he made because he believed they would sign. With the projections guessing Suzuki will get $55 million I’m sure a lot of execs would like to take advantage of that and offer him a salary in that range even though they may evaluate him as being worth a good bit more. This becomes even more important this offseason because players will have a lot less time to negotiate teams due to the lockout (unless they are willing to miss regular season games and the paychecks that come along with them). Considering the short time frame Suzuki has to work with and the seemingly low projection for his next contract it would make a ton of sense for him to advertise how much interest he is getting from other teams. That way he could be hoping that interested teams come with their top offers (closer to their evaluation than to his projection) right off the bat.
$55 million seems really low for what Suzuki may be capable of. I would bet some teams value him at a lot higher than that. Why would that team start the bidding at their evaluation of the projection is way lower? They would probably start the bidding around the projection and then work their way up from there only if nessecary. Considering the lockout, Suzuki isn’t going to have a lot of time to be able to work the teams closer to their actual evaluation so he may be trying to convince them they need to start off with that right now. Make sense?
Hammer:
My issue with your post was Suzuki releasing info for the point of increasing the bidding to drive up the price. The info in the media is not going to have any effect on baseball execs.
Plus, Suzuki’s agent is letting every team know exactly how much interest there is, and how much it’s going to take to sign him. Among the teams Suzuki likes, and those with the highest evaluation of him, the ones with the biggest budgets allocated to sign him are going to be the finalists. What gets said in the media is irrelevant.
Giants first to worst.
Ridiculous. There’s zero chance that the Giants finish behind the Rockies or D’backs.
Have the Diamondbacks and Rockies been contracted or realigned?
Even if the Giants regress drastically they still would probably only fall as far as 3rd in the NL West. I think even with expectrd regression the Giants could still win the division. The Padres will be interesting with an actual MLB manager and the Dodgers depth is not what it was. Still, once the lockout is over there are lots of moves still to be made
Zero teams first to worst or worst to first.
Correct answer.
It probably is zero, but the question was which team was the most likely.
About this if the owners insist on a 14 team playoffs. First round is round robin all 7 teams in each league play each other one game. Best record in the league has all home games. 2nd best all but one. 3rd best all home but 2. 4th best all but 3. 5th best only 2 home games. 6th has only one. The last wildcard has none. The 3 teams with the worst records are thrown out then play resumes as it usually does. If two teams have the same round robin record it reverts back to their league records. Team will the best record gets the most money. Team with the worst, gets the least. So still teams want to make the playoffs with at least a chance to pull an upset. All games should be done in a week to 12 days and should start two days after the regular season ends.
I guess the owners thinking is the play in game will be between wildcard #3 and #4. Division winners #1 and #2 have a bye week. So then that winner will play division winner #3 and wildcard #1 and #2 play each other. Winner of wildcard 1-2 will play Division winner #1. Division winner #3- wildcard (3 or 4) will play division winner #2. 4 wildcards are way too much even three is too much.
Acuña isn’t starting in the Braves outfield until at least June. Ozuna is back too and depending on DH thing he very likely could be in LF where he hasn’t been terrible.
Heard a report that the universal DH has been approved by the players and owners so like it or not it’s coming. So that means Ozuna will be the primary DH. Maybe the Braves resign Rosario to be the primary LF with Duvall as the primary CF. Waters or Pache as backups.
Hopefully AA can find a trade partner for Marcell. I was one of the guys wanting him resigned. After all the legal troubles I’d rather the Braves just cut their loss with Ozuna. I think this is a man with lots of $$$ bought himself out of trouble. I think he has little to no value but I think it’s better he is kept away from the younger impressionable guys on the team.
Not sure where you’re getting “at least June” from. All reports I’ve seen have said late April, early May.
They aren’t going to run him out there 8.5 – 9 months after an ACL surgery. He didn’t even have the surgery until July 21. You have to wait 10-14 days after the injury for the swelling to go down. There’s zero reason to push it. They learned that last year Soroka.
Mark, the question about Atlantas outfield, guess you forgot about Marcell Ozuna as the 3rd outfielder. Also, who is the guy that thinks Atlanta is a first to worst team? They won the world series WITHOUT Acuña. They get him back healthy and whether anyone believes it or not, Marcell is still a decent hitter. Get better mid year in the BP with the Yates signing. Braves are not done making moves either. So first to worst is not happening