Click here to read a transcript of Wednesday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
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By Steve Adams | at
Click here to read a transcript of Wednesday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com
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Contreras for Gallo was one weird proposal. Literally makes less than zero sense.
Before Steve was telling me that no player has ever been paid a $10 million signing bonus when he was drafted. I think he’s technically right but I read on ESPN that Steven Strasburg was guaranteed $15.1 million when he got drafted by the Nationals and before he ever set foot on a minor league field. What is that called then when a player gets that much money guaranteed in the draft? Is that just his combined minor league salary or something? I thought all the money you were guaranteed when you got drafted was the signing bonus?
Also, in a conversation about how much players are paid before they make it to the majors and then before arbitration, does it really matter if all the $15.1 million is technically considered signing bonus or not? Shouldn’t it really only matter that he was guaranteed that amount prior to even playing minor league ball? Not that I’m saying he was overpaid or anything but I’m not sure why people think no player has ever been paid $10 million when they were drafted because ESPN says Strasburg got $15.1 M
I said no player has received a $10MM signing bonus under the current draft rules — i.e. the rules set in place by the 2016-21 collective bargaining agreement.
Strasburg signed a Major League contract out of the draft, which the league eliminated as a possibility under the last CBA. A good portion of the league’s initiatives in the prior CBA sought to narrow the path to amateur talent acquisition. This was done (sincerely or otherwise) under the guise of “competitive balance” — e.g. “the Pirates can’t afford to take that risk on a draftee like the Nats can” — but that and other measures effectively made tanking the only path to stockpiling amateur talent. In doing so, it disincentivized signing free agents and spending money, which has been a talking point for the players in the current wave of negotiations.
To your broader point, the reason I specified “under the current rules” is that a Strasburg-like deal is no longer possible. Even more broadly, the assertion that such bonuses were ever “frequent” is simply incorrect. Strasburg’s deal was a rarity — a reflection of the fact that he was viewed as the best and most polished pitching prospect in recent draft memory.
The main point of my reply, that you’re referencing, was that most players receive nowhere close to that amount of money prior to debuting in the Majors. Most receive $100K or less and then ride that signing bonus for several years while earning just a few thousand dollars annually as a minor leaguer.
I gotcha. I didn’t realize they changed the rules. I do think that’s pretty unfair to the players. I can see maybe doing away with draft picks getting major league deals but they should still be able to get Stras’s $15.1 million if the team is willing to pay it. I don’t think any team should be considered so cash poor they can’t come up with $15 million for a #1 pick. A lot of players make more than twice that every year so if you can’t pay $15 million on a long term deal for a #1 pick you really have no business owning a baseball team.
I was definitely a little confused about the fact they changed the rules. The amount of predraft money (I think the top picks max out at around $8 million right now) had very little to do with my point in that post though. It was just something I mentioned. My main point was spending around twice the Cleveland Guardians entire team payroll just to hand out bonuses to pre-arb players (at least some of whom could already have $8 or 9 million in the bank) could really screw up the arbitration system. If a low payroll team drafts a player #1 overall, then gives him a 385% raise his sophomore season, then gives him another 385% raise his third season it could totally price him out of the team’s payroll in arbitration. After getting multiple raises (or even if it’s just one raise) of 385% he would get another significant raise once he hits arbitration. Then another significant raise his 2nd year of arbitration. That would be followed by another significant raise his 3rd year of arbitration. If he is Super 2 eligible his 4th year of arbitration would absolutely blow the walls off of any salary any player has made prior to free agency. We have already had guys like Betts and maybe Lindor get traded because they were projected to be in the $20+ million salary range before they even became free agents. If the league were to give out 385% raises before arbitration happened, that salary would skyrocket. I could totally see a scenario where a player the caliber of say Vlad Jr would be getting close to a $40 million a year salary before he even became a free agent. We would have lower payroll teams trading top players away after only 3 or 4 years because they couldn’t even come close to affording their arbitration salaries, let alone free agent salaries.
I thought the $10 million offer the league suggested was a nice gesture to pay some of the top players a little more before they finish their 3rd year in the league. The players union asking for more than 10 times that amount (a lot more than some teams spend in their entire roster) would totally change arbitration results and ruin chances for a lot of small market teams to even hold onto their best players for just 4 or 5 seasons.
The union was essentially asking the owners to pay like there is a 31st team in MLB even though there isn’t. That kind of sounds like the league offering to give an inch ($10 million) and the union trying to take a mile ($105 million). I really don’t mind the cost rising as if a 31st team were there. I think the arbitration consequences would really be terrible though. It would seriously hurt the ability of most lower payroll teams to keep their best players even before they hit free agency. In some cases probably 3 or more years before they hit free agency.
Your math is way off. If the league is offering to give an inch, the players are asking for 10-1/2 inches.
Oh, Jesus. You’re one of those. It was a figure of speech. Regardless, imagine how much those 10 and a half inches increase when the player gets in his first year if arb. Then again in his 2nd year if arb. Then even more in his third year. By the 4th year of arbitration the numbers would be outlandish for a player who has never experienced free agency. On top of that, if it’s a player like Adley Rustchman, they could have already been paid over $8 million before that process even started. Even in the current system with no bonuses, if you don’t factor in the minor league years which make teams very little money, Adley Rustchman is going to make over $9.7 million for those 3 years of service time before he even hits arbitration. It’s not really an issue of spreading it out. The biggest issue is the top players (who frequently already have millions if they were high draft picks) being totally priced out of their team’s payroll well before they even sniff the free agent market. No small market teams will even be able to ride out the rookie contracts of their best players.
Oh, Lord. You’re one of those. It was a joke.
Regardless (and using a new paragraph to make things more readable), imagine $10M in bonuses divided among 30 teams: $333k per team. That’s nothing, not even to “poor” teams like Cleveland and Pittsburgh. Now divide $105M among 30 teams. That’s $3.5M per team. Not chump change, but it wouldn’t break the bank. And if the owners and players go forward with this plan, the final number will be somewhere in between, and every team could afford a couple million.
I’m not sure where your 385% raise year over year is coming from. Yes, some players make such a jump going from pre-arb to their first year of arbitration, but there’s no such jump in the second arb year. Typically, players earn about 40%, 60%, and 80% of their free-market value during their three arb years. I imagine Super Two players make more, but it’s still no more than a free agent salary.
The 385% raise is a figure MLBTR came up with. They wouldn’t get the 385% raise in arbitration. They would get the 385% from the pre-arb bonuses. So the 385% raises would come before they even reached arbitration. Then the arbitration numbers would only make it increase from there. I don’t really have any issue with the $105 million being spent or spread out as if there were a 31st team (I said that in my post). The main issue is how that raised pre-arbitration salary is going to also increase the later arbitration salaries. Right now players hit arbitration and get raises from the league minimum. With some players potentially getting 385% of the league minimum before arbitration they would be getting raises on that figure instead. The players wouldn’t just be getting paid more during their pre-arb seasons. They would also be getting paid more during their arbitration seasons as well.
Imagine if a player like Rustchman hits all of his bonuses every year. He would start off with over $8 million in the bank by the time his first year starts. Then he would make 385% of his first year salary. Then 385% again his second year. Then another 385% his third year. Then arbitration kicks in his 4th year and he gets a noticable (though not 385% this time) raise on that 3rd year salary. Then he gets another noticeable raise on that for his 2nd year of arbitration. Then another noticeable raise on that his 3rd year of arbitration. Then, finally, another noticeable raise on that his 4th year of arbitration. Imagine how high that last arbitration year salary could be. There are already guys like Betts and Lindor who were being traded because their arbitration salaries were projected to get so high. At least in the 20 millions. Think about how much higher it would be for a player that maxed out on bonuses every year before the arbitration process of more raises even began. Outside of the $105 million bonuses, teams would have to pay those arbitration players more (possibly a lot more) money than they would have made in arbitration without those pre arb bonuses.
You’re assuming one player would get this theoretical 385% bonus multiple times, when it most likely would be different players getting different bonuses each year. And who’s to say that 385% would apply to each season’s salary? Maybe it’s viable relative to the minimum, but who’s to say it’s 385% of a player’s third-year salary – assuming that salary ends up higher than a first-year player’s?
And if a player was good enough to get such a bonus, he obviously had a tremendous season, so he probably would be worth more than the bonus anyway.
Steve – I totally agree with you, most players don’t receive huge money prior to debuting in the majors.
These are the few I can think of:
Jon Singleton – $10M at Age 22
Scott Kingery – $24M at Age 23
Eloy Jimenez – $43M at Age 22
Evan White – $24M at Age 23
Luis Robert – $50M at Age 22
And these are some young players who signed a huge contract despite being in the majors for a very short time:
Wander Franco – $182M at Age 20 after just 104 days in MLB
Bumgarner – $35M at Age 20 after just 1 year 127 days in MLB
Simmons – $58M at Age 24 after just 1 year 125 days in MLB
Albies – $35M at Age 22 after just 1 year 77 days in MLB
Yelich – $49.5M at Age 23 after just 1 year 69 days in MLB
Goldschmidt – $32M at Age 25 after just 1 year 59 days in MLB
Rizzo – $41M at Age 23 after just 1 year 40 days in MLB
Tulowitzki – $134M at Age 23 after just 1 year 33 days in MLB
Braun – $45M at Age 24 after just 1 year 8 days in MLB
Acuna – $100M at Age 21 after just 165 days in MLB
Archer – $25.5M at Age 25 after just 156 days in MLB
DeJong – $26M at Age 24 after just 124 days in MLB.
Tim Anderson – $25M at Age 24 after just 115 days in MLB
Brandon Lowe – $24M at Age 24 after just 58 days in MLB
Salvador Perez – $7M at Age 21 after just 50 days in MLB
Evan Longoria – $17.5M at Age 22 after just 24 days in MLB
Matt Moore – $14M at Age 22 after just 17 days in MLB
I’m not even including Tatis, who got $365M at Age 21 after just 84 MLB games.
I think we can all agree, those who have the talent can become very wealthy at a very young age by playing baseball.
Deadpool date on Regular Season: before, on or after May 15th? I’m leaning towards after… ridiculous to ponder when the new CBA should already have been ratified by now. Both sides are using the games as leverage and it makes me sad.
I’ll take “before”, Gwynning. No one wants to piss money away. They will settle in February.
I’m normally an eternal optimist… I hope you’re correct!! Be good Duckers!
Yeah…I am kind of a Turbo Optimist. But too much money. Or so I think. You too, man.
Oh. Hey. How did Pham look in CF for you guys? Thanks.
Pham had some troubles all around last year. His glove and routes were suspect, even in LF. His at-bats were borderline atrocious most of the year. His baserunning left a rookie on a pogo stick look like a better alternative. I’m not an Optometrist but I have every reason to believe his eyes were a major problem. He switched contacts multiple times looking for a more clear-cut solution… & yes, all those puns were intended. All that being said, I sure hope he rebounds and has a nice year. Buyer beware though.
May the 4th be with you.
The local men’s softball league (beer league) where the best of the best play and play injured because they are too drunk to know they are hurt is the best entertainment LOL
I dunno, I got hit by a softball in the head by one of those drunks guys, so I will stay with indoor sports.
Maybe catch the ball next time? Hope you’re alright buddy!
Story or Correa are not going to take a pillow(1 year+overpay) contract.
Stop with the idea/suggestion that Sea could trade Rodriguez, Marte, Kirby, Hancock,Ford… 2 years control of a real good veteran player(unless his name is Soto;)
AlienBob
December 19, 2021
The M’s will take Wil Myers and CJ Abrams just to help out the Padres payroll. Myers can play 3B and a little CF for a year before he hits FA. Abrams will be a nice long-term piece next to JP Crawford
As you can see, idiot trade ideas come from Ms fans as well.
6% increase? Not enough of a raise to keep up with inflation??
The MLBPA and Steve should keep tabs on the majority of the population today who would be heads over heels for 5% annually in raises. Or even 4%.
This is another reason why the fans are sick of both the owners and the players. Millionaires and billionaires fighting over money when the rest of the country can hardly afford the current price of a pound of bacon. If the players don’t like they’re employment situation…. Quit and get a real job. If the owners don’t like the business side of operations… sell the team and concentrate on other businesses.
Ridiculous!!! Be it players, management, sports writers, etc….. greed for there own personal sake above the fans
I agree. There should be no real considerations tied to inflation. While everyone is affected by price of goods and services, the 4-6% change only true affects the working class and below.
I’ve never heard someone making 500k+ a year complain about gas or egg prices
Looks like the Red Sox president and CEO made Ted Williams and Yaz into Sawks “nonpersons” yesterday. I mean, whether or not Ortiz is a HOFer is one thing, but guzzling this type of Kool-Aid? socraticgadfly.blogspot.com/2022/01/ted-williams-a…
Sam Kennedy is known to be a major knob
Nice write-up, Gadfly… is Blogspot a good place to set up a tent and pontificate on a podium? I’ve never heard of it but I like your angle. Cheers fellas
I love Steve Adams’ articles and chats. I also love that he thinks the Phillies will take a shot at Correa, and although I hope it’s true, I just don’t see it.
They have to stop wasting Harper’s years and make a push it makes TOO much sense
I agree. And I’d also include Wheeler in the stop wasting prime years. But that’s a lot of money for a team that has historically never gone over the lux tax. I also add that there are more important holes to fill as well…mainly the OF.
VonPurpleHayes:
I’d disagree that the hole in the OF is more important. It will be years before a talent like Correa, at his age, is available as a FA. Any of the OF positions are far less important defensively than SS.
The Braves demonstrated how guys can be found for the OF last season. The Giants won 3 titles with guys like Torres, Rowand, Burrell, Schierholtz, Blanco, and Morse playing a significant amount of time in the OF.
Good points, tad. I more meant the Phillies have internal options at SS, including a talented prospect. But to your point, Correa is a special player. Phillies can sign him and move Stott elsewhere in the IF. The Phils OF options are currently dog doo. Outside of Harper of course.
Starling Marte made too much for the Phillies and now he’ll be playing against them
Well, they spent quite a bit on Wheeler and Harper and now are up against the CBT. Maybe they should have spread out the money instead of sinking $50+MM on two players and being unable to fill the holes. The moment a player signs the big contract, they surely realize the chances of a great team around them just diminished, due to the percentage of the payroll their own salary takes up.
@stymeedone That’s not quite true in the Phillies case, as the promise was to continue spending “stupid money” and Harper took less AAV to allow for that. And the Phillies freed up quite a bit so they have room to spend before brushing up against the tax. The question now should be what do they spend on? Correa would surely put them over the limit, but they can be more creative.
papi belonged. so did bonds, rocket and arod. its the hall of fame…not the hall of aribitrary morals. hall is full racists (cobb) and others of questionable repute. this is a sport that celbrates stories like bill the space man lee, the 86 mets, and the many players played using greenies.
You make more sense than all the almighty BBWAA voters combined.
Yeah, the importance of the HoF is really diminishing for a lot of people. I used to look forward to who was going in. Now, I barely take notice. I couldn’t care less who goes in and who doesn’t. I went to Cooperstown many years ago, but wouldn’t go back.
“Is Oswaldo Cabrera sufficiently in the ‘top tier’ of Yankees prospects to headline an Olson deal?”
Is a limited-to-2B-in-the-shift-by-range-and-glove power-over-hit utility prospect a good shot to headline a trade for an AllStar 1B with 2GG?
NO
Don’t think the Astros are offering Correa 5/225.