The free agent starting pitching market moved incredibly quickly in the run-up to the lockout. Carlos Rodón and Clayton Kershaw are easily the top two unsigned options. Each has some health uncertainty but was excellent in 2021 when able to take the hill. Injury question marks could have held up their respective markets early in the offseason, and Kershaw also seems to have geographical preferences that’ll limit where he might end up. Yet that duo is in a tier of their own in terms of upside, and they’ll be the highest-profile free agent starters coming out of the transactions freeze.
For this exercise, we’ll set Rodón and Kershaw aside and look at the remainder of the rotation market. 26 other current free agents worked at least 50 innings as a starter in 2021. Using a few key pitching categories, we’ll see how they fared to take a look at some potential lower-cost signings for teams in search of back-of-the-rotation depth.
As with Rodón and Kershaw, a few of these pitchers represent unique cases. Yusei Kikuchi reportedly had three-year offers in hand before the lockout, so his market may be beyond “buy-low” status. Matthew Boyd and Danny Duffy each had surgery late in the 2021 season and aren’t expected to be ready for the start of next year. Boyd’s recovery timetable is still unclear; Duffy is targeting a June return.
Most of the pitchers remaining are currently healthy, back-end types at this point of their careers, though. Using FanGraphs’ splits leaderboards, let’s take a look at the top performers in various metrics last year. (All figures cited, including league averages, are looking solely at pitchers’ outings as starters).
ERA (league average — 4.34)
- Danny Duffy, 2.55
- Wily Peralta, 3.12
- Kwang-hyun Kim, 3.63
- Michael Pineda, 3.72
- Matthew Boyd, 3.89
- Johnny Cueto, 4.09
- Zack Greinke, 4.11
- Brett Anderson, 4.22
- Yusei Kikuchi, 4.41
- Chad Kuhl, 4.43
Strikeout Rate (league average — 22.6%)
- Danny Duffy, 25.7%
- Yusei Kikuchi, 24.5%
- Vince Velasquez, 22.8%
- Drew Smyly, 21.8%
- Chad Kuhl, 20.1%
- Matthew Boyd, 19.9%
- Johnny Cueto, 19.8%
- Matt Moore, 19.2%
- Martín Pérez, 19.1%
- Tyler Anderson, 19.1%
Strikeout/Walk Rate Differential (league average — 14.7 percentage points)
- Danny Duffy, 16.9 points
- Yusei Kikuchi, 15.2 points
- Michael Pineda, 14.6 points
- Drew Smyly, 14.2 points
- Johnny Cueto, 13.8 points
- Tyler Anderson, 13.7 points
- Matthew Boyd, 13.1 points
- Vince Velasquez, 12.3 points
- Zack Greinke, 11.8 points
- Martín Pérez, 11.7 points
Ground-Ball Rate (league average — 42.7%)
- Brett Anderson, 57.5%
- José Ureña, 52.7%
- Wily Peralta, 50.8%
- Carlos Martínez, 50.2%
- Yusei Kikuchi, 48.4%
- Garrett Richards, 46.6%
- Chad Kuhl, 46.5%
- Kwang-hyun Kim, 45.6%
- Matt Shoemaker, 45.1%
- Zack Greinke, 44.1%
FIP (league average — 4.30)
- Danny Duffy, 3.44
- Johnny Cueto, 4.10
- Matthew Boyd, 4.10
- Kwang-hyun Kim, 4.27
- Michael Pineda, 4.27
- Tyler Anderson, 4.37
- Brett Anderson, 4.39
- Matt Harvey, 4.60
- Yusei Kikuchi, 4.61
- Zack Greinke, 4.69
Innings Pitched
- Zack Greinke, 168 2/3
- Tyler Anderson, 167
- Yusei Kikuchi, 157
- J.A. Happ, 152 1/3
- Zach Davies, 148
- Jon Lester, 141 1/3
- Mike Foltynewicz, 130
- Matt Harvey, 127 2/3
- Drew Smyly, 115 2/3
- Johnny Cueto, 112 1/3
If I’m a contender looking at SPs, I would really look into Pineda. He was underrated this year and while, yes he was cheating earlier in his career, I still think he is a very strong SP option.
He still has the potential for a big year and at worst he can eat up some innings at the back end of the rotation. I was always waiting for the other shoe to drop with him and have a breakout year but it never happened. I think he generally lacks passion for the game. That’s not to say he is lazy or anything, he still puts in the work. But his body language just doesn’t scream “I love baseball”
Big Mike’s fastball velocity is steadily dropping since his time with the Yankees. He sat at 90.6 mph (average) last season. (Was 95+ in the Bronx.)
That’s a pretty big warning sign to me.
I pass on Pineda.
This list is sooo underwhelming.
I agree on Pineda. His issue has always been health
Duffy is hurt but I could see him coming back to the Royals after recovery. Also, would love to see Geinke back with the Royals to finish his career and go into the HOF in KC blue.
You should do a fantasy draft among the staff. All players eligible. Trades eligible. Snake style draft
Create your own team city + name
All players in the league eligible to be drafted using current contracts
No one allowed to go over the maximum spending limit.
I kind of wanted Greinke for the Phillies but for some reason I’m getting AJ Burnett vibes.
Greinke is much more accomplished than AJ ever was. AJ basically was a disappointment outside of Pittsburgh.
He was good for the Marlins and Toronto as well so hard to agree with you
In the 14 seasons he pitched at least 100 innings, only three he had a sub-100 ERA+. He had an ERA+ over 110 with both Marlins and Jays. Pretty good pitcher.
Yankees Burnett or Pirates Burnett? Because for the Pirates, he was solid and dependable for three of his four years there.
Greinke would be a great pickup for any team. He’s durable and can still pitch pretty well. With all of the injuries to pitchers over the last few years, a dependable guy like Greinke is great to have. You could pencil him in at 3rd (or maybe 4th) starter and not have to worry about it all year.
I’ve always liked Greinke and I was an advocate of adding him for a while. He clearly is more accomplished than Burnett, although Burnett was no slouch.
I’m just concerned that Greinke’s next contract will be his last. He clearly wore down in 2021, with his 6.1 max effort playoff innings being more of an outlier. If he gets 3 years, that third year should be considered a sunk cost. Maybe even halfway through the second year. All of which reminds me of Burnett’s horrible year with the Phillies at the end of his career for some reason.
I don’t think Greinke is even going to get any consideration for a 3 year deal.
It’s going to be a 1 or 2 year deal. I think 1 with a vesting option is really the best he’s going to do. If he wants that. He may only want a 1 year deal at this point.
Any team with an above average infield defense, should take a look at some of the ground ball types. Not too bad 4 or 5 guys in that mix. Good defense can make a pitcher look better than he may be…i.e. LeBlanc, Lester, Happ with the Cardinals last year
If Kikuchi has multi-year offers I hope the Jays aren’t in on him. Maybe Anderson?…Greinke?
Kwang Hyun Kim has a career ERA under 3 in 145.2 career innings, almost all as a starter, and I almost never hear him mentioned.
It’s because his ERA estimators aren’t very good. I understand not wanting to commit a lot of money, or long term time to a guy who is going into his age 33-34 season with a career 4.89 SIERA in the majors, but results are results. If a team is looking just to round out their rotation, then Kim is really the guy they should go after.
Kind of the opposite of of Pineda. He was a peripherals stud. Kim has a Teheran vibe to me. A guy who consistently outperformed his peripherals. Until he – ya know – didn’t.
The Cards defence undoubtedly has something to do with suppressing his ERA, but FIP, xFIP, xERA and SIERA say it should be a run higher.
Definitley. When your have five infielders who could have been finalists for Gold Gloves, and three well above average defensive outfielders, two of which won a GG, then you’re going to prevent a lot of runs.
Kim gets the ball on the ground at a decent clip. 47-50% of the time. I think he’s truly an ~4 ERA guy. But I don’t see him turning into a pumpkin like Teheran. Teheran’s outperformance was really rare.
Tyler Anderson was pretty much what every team wants when they go out and get a relatively cheap innings eater. He wasn’t an ace, but he went 5 innings in every single one of his outings with the Pirates and gave up more than 3 earned runs just 3 times.
The Phillies thought they had him last year – and had they gotten him they might have actually beat out the Braves in the NLE.
Assuming he has something left (only 32) Mr. Anderson would be an excellent #4-5 starter for a contending team in 2022. He played last year for $2.5M. He’d be a bargain at $4-5m for a contending team that has some payroll space. I suspect his agent has fielded numerous calls so far this offseason.
You can’t really ask for more then that in a. #5 starter. He wasn’t sexy, but he got results. I think the phillies problem was the bullpen not SP though.
@ Dusty Baker’s tooth pick;
Part of the problem with the bullpen was that Moore and Velasquez couldn’t get to the 5th inning with the Phillies still in the game. Around early August Harper finally got fed up enough with the situation to say something about it. Anyone watching the games saw it and was a frustrated as anyone associated with the team.
Quite frankly,I was hoping that the Pirates would be smart enough to sign him again and perhaps overpay as they have to start showing a major league inclination..It is difficult every year to see them have to bring up AAAA and forever AAA pitchers to act as injury replacements.
Im a braves fan and for the longest time I thought the phills had us beat. It’s funny that the year they put up there worst record they finally don’t choke and win the WS! Baseball is funny like that and just shows that the playoffs are a crapshoot.
@ Samuel – that made me curious, so I look it up.
Velasquez started 21 games, went 5.0 IP or more 8 times. He had 2 Quality Starts out of 21. Wow
Moore started 13, got to 5.0 IP or more 4 times, 1 QS out of 13 starts.
Combine them 34 starts, 3 QS.
Yeah, that’s a burden for the best of bullpens.
I live near Philadelphia and am con”Vince”d that Vince’s only ML future is as a relief pitcher whether he likes it or not.I think that he has the potential to become a fairly good one.And,yes,I know that the Phillies tried that,but for various reasons did not keep him there.One thing that I do know,though,that although he will tease every four or five starts,he is not a ML starting pitcher.
@ bruno202;
I’m glad you looked that up. A quality start means that they pitched that many innings. So?
Did you look up what the scores were when they departed those games in July and early August as the pennant race was heating up? Velasquez and Moore were left in games because the Phillies bullpen was out of gas and pitchers that were half-decent were held off of being used in games that the Phillies had a slim chance of coming back and winning, with Girardi saving them for games they could win.
Yours is yet another example of a statistic misrepresenting what occurred.
The fact is that Velasquez and Moore were not offered a contract by the Phillies for 2022. Rather, the Phillies went traded for Kyle Gibson at the deadline, and for 2022 are moving Ranger Suarez from the bullpen to starter beginning in 2022.
Apparently Dave Dombrowski puts winning games ahead of the quality start statistic.
As for Velasquez and Moore – I’m sure they’ll catch on with a team sooner or later, but as of today there is no rush by anyone to sign them.
(I watched those games for a while – sometimes they had a good few innings before the roof caved in. I stopped watching the Phillies primarily because of them.)
Velasquez looked awful in SD at the end of last year. I think he’s just all messed up by coaching at this point and needs to go back to the drawing board.
His best pitch is his FB, especially when he pounds the top part of the zone. There was an article I saw where he talked about how Kapler and Chris Young used to tell him to do that and he didn’t like it because he would get tired after like 40 pitches. (Sound like a reliever?) Keep in mind, those were his coaches in 2018, when he had a fWAR of 2.6 and a FIP of 3.75. And if you go back to that hyped up 16K game in 2016, he relied on his fastball to do that.
Despite all that, there’s this been this notion that he can’t be a real successful starter unless he throws his secondary pitches more. So even though his FB works to a certain extent and he’s decent in certain circumstances when he throws mostly that, he’s committed to using it less because there’s a chance he could be an elite pitcher if he mixes in other pitches. Better is the enemy of good with him. He doesn’t need to be an ace, he just needs to be decent.
If you look at his pitch mix and he’s gone from throwing the FB 69% of the time as a rookie down to 50% of the time this past year. He should be throwing his best pitch more, not less and that’s the problem. Ultimately, someone just needs to accept his limitations and have him throw a ton of fastballs while only letting him go through the lineup 2x. To get value out of him, it’s basically that or go to the bullpen at this point.
Did the statistic misrepresent what occurred? 34 starts and 3 QS really paints an accurate pciture. If you looked up Moore & Velasquez’s ERA you wouldn’t really need any more info than that to tell you it was really bad.
J-I think C’s point is that he should be used and pitch in a different manner.My point is that he really has not known how he was going to be used coming into a season.Some guys can be very flexible,and there is real value to them,but many must know their role in order to be consistent.Two times through the order basically means that he is at most a four inning starting pitcher.That is fine on Tampa Bay but most teams have not gone that route.I think that Vince thinks that he is a starter,But I would just tell him that he is not,that he is a mid to long reliever who can be gradually be worked into closing situations.He is not going to get many more big league chances,which would be a waste as he does have big league talent.
@Mendoza I think our points are slightly different but also related. Giving him a defined role would help with his usage. If you move him to the pen he can focus on throwing his best pitches for shorter spurts. Same thing if you define his role a man a 2x through the order ~4 inning guy, which I get why that isn’t ideal.
For RP I look at a guy like Drew Pomeranz. When healthy he’s an elite reliever because he throws 2 pitches now instead of 4+. He’s 75% fastball and 25% curve as a reliever, but he used to throw cutters and change ups as a starter and he wasn’t getting consistently good results until he dropped those pitches and moved to the pen. A transition like that would probably help Velasquez a lot.
C-You obviously know a lot more about the specific pitches than I do.I always go with the opinion of whoever knows the most about a specific subject which quite often is not me.I was remarking more on the macro end of it and the Phillies expecting more out of someone who has proven that he cannot do.We are basically in agreement I think.
The Pirates traded hom
Greinke would be perfect as both an innings eater and role model for the young Tigers and Royals staffs. And of course he has past connections with AJ Hinch and Dayton Moore.
At issue are the salary and years he wants, as well as whether he wants to play for a team that is all but guaranteed a playoff spot.
As I wrote earlier, it might be best if he sat out the beginning 2-3 months of the season. He’d be fresher for the rest of the year, and would have a better understanding of where teams are at that would be interested in him.
Kershaw would be a good lefty for the Mets
Whoever gets Kim is going to get a steal.
I could see him being a landmine actually since he’ll be leaving the Cardinals defence and doesn’t really have the ability to put batters away himself at anywhere near a respectable rate.
If he has a similar stellar defense behind him he should out pitch his FIP. I don’t know I’ve been wrong once before but I’d like to see him on my favorite team or a backend starter for Toronto. (If bichette will improve his defensive metrics.)
I’ve like Duffy signing with the Mets for awhile now. They probably won’t need him early on unless stupid stuff happens again in spring training.
I’m sure by June, almost every single team will be scrambling for starters other than Houston.
Assuming healthy, Mets look pretty deep, but we all know how that works out.
1 deGrom
2 Scherzer
3 Walker
4 Carrasco
5 Megill
6 Peterson
If Carrasco is healthy, Peterson probably starts at AAA to build up his innings.
Nobody is going to start all 32 games. Realistically:
deGrom -28
Scherzer – 30
Walker – 28
Carrasco – 16
Megill – 20
Peterson – 16
That’s 138, leaving another 24 that still need covering. Duffy would be perfect to step in and grab 16-20 of those from June through the end of the season.
I’d love to be this optimistic, too, but I can’t. deGrom has an injury history, Scherzer is getting up there in age, Walker is wildly inconsistent (first and second half splits were brutal) and has his own injury history, Carrasco is coming off extensive injuries, Megill is still a question mark, and Peterson isn’t anything to write home about.
If they signed Duffy, he could end up as their #3 starter.
If he (Duffy) can stay on the field.. Big if.
Right. You’re adding an injury prone starter to an injury prone rotation.
Depending on what happens with the CBA, wouldn’t mind seeing the pirates doing a ‘soft’ run to not be bad in 2022. If so signing a couple low cost starters (and relievers) and hope, would be key.
Players like J.A. Happ, Cueto, B. Anderson, etc ‘should be’ fairly cheap in the 5ish range.
Idea is basically, if the young guys pick it up and get enough offense to at least pretend to be a .500 team then having some pitching experience that doesn’t cost an arm and a lag would be use full.. they picked up one in the way of Quintana who has experience and past success, another signing or two like that could make the difference between .500 and .300.
And hey if they cannot pretend to be .500 then hopefully one or two of them make decent trade targets while not adding ‘too’ much in payroll
in the examples above, getting 2-8m guaranteed deal maybe second option depending on who isn’t near a lowball and if they’re doing well almost a shoe in to be traded to a contender if the pirates are not doing well….. so if they cannot sign with a contender.. pirates seem like a good spot to sign in free agency
Pirates got a lot of Ifs the next couple seasons, providing some support If those Ifs start to turn out ….. they could get to the point where they’re record isn’t so embarrassing.
Joe, we agree again.What I am looking for is another ten win increase,as the prorated 2020 season would have been 51.I think that any number over 70 wins would show a decent and consistent increase in aptitude, but I think that it will take several low to mid level free agent contracts to get them there.They need some winning momentum,not only for the fans,but for the team too.
One or two of these guys would be better off coming out of the pen. Example: Matt Harvey should be allowed to pitch only 1 time through a batting order.
Matt Harvey shouldnt be anywhere near a pitcher’s mound unless he’s doing it as a coach.
Grounds keeper?
Cueto on a low cost 1 yr. deal to whomever. Have escalators inplace for Johnny to achieve and I think you’ll have a good #4 starter.
I think Cueto would be my choice for the Yanks out of this list. I like watching him work too. He has a pretty unique style. I think you could even run him out as a #4 in the postseason too, & not be embarrassed.
Like Cueto also. Pedro has always liked him, which is a significant plus when he gives a nod of approval. if Cueto would take some lowball, or split type contract..
Cool cool.
It’s always good to have some kind of confirmation. Like I said, I like watching him throw. But sometimes I will let that influence me. For example; I wanted the Yanks to re-sign Didi – more or less – because he’s a fun player. Ya know?
But looking at the above list, Cueto is my preference. The writers here keep talking about how we “need” rotation help. However, I don’t see all that acute of an issue. Had Taillon been on track for Opening Day, I think we could have stood pat.
As he will miss a month or so, I think the need is a bit more heightened. It went from “you can never have too much pitching” stuff to “yeah we probably need a hundred or so external innings added”.
He was an honorable mention to the top 50 list. Shouldn’t be all that onerous of a deal.
Cole, Sevie, Monty, Cortes/German/Gil. Garcia & Schmidt are potentially options too. Then you add Taillon back.
I think Rodón would look good there if he’s healthy. I’d rather gamble on the upside and potentially give the Yankees a strong 3 for October. OR see what’s up with Oakland and try to grab one of those 3. They won’t be prohibitively expensive.
Cueto has the name but don’t get yourself stuck. He was looking like a guy who may never get another ML deal til he turned in a decent year this year. GB numbers suck. He only tossed 115 innings and he played in a huge ballpark in SF. I’d take a pass
It appears that Duffy is easily the best of the group so obviously I like others would want him to sign with my team. But I really do think he would be a perfect fit to the Blue Jays rotation. The 1-4 slots are all spoken for, with the fifth one still being up for grabs. Pearson, Stripling, and Hatch can all battle for it during spring, and keep it warm until June when Duffy is ready to return. We still don’t really know if Pearson or Hatch will even become effective rotation guys so it’s hard to pencil them in for 6 months, and Stripling clearly is better in the swing man role. If they could somehow hold down that spot for the 3 or so months it would take, Duffy would be a real nice boost in the arm halfway through the season.
Since his time with the Jays, Stripling has put up a 0.0 fWAR, the definition of a replace player. His projection for an arb award is about 4M. The Jays really need to upgrade the long/swing man position.
Them trade options are looking pretty good after seeing this.
Rays should really sign Greinke and/or Pineda
Kim is too fragile and sickly to be considered as a starter. If it’s not his back, it’s his elbow. If it’s not his elbow it his kidney. Always something. He continues to tout his family man thing so odds are he’ll wind up back in Korea.
I dont see rodon being a top starter with his career metrics. maybe a 9-8 with a 4.5 era at best.
Only good in the walk year.
With the exception of the truly great ones (pitchers and position players) isn’t the walk year always when they are at their best?
A lot of teams will gladly take 9-8 / 4.5
Rodon had an ERA of 8.22 in his previous walk year, so there goes your theory
Not really. Most mlb players have a good year in their walk year, what you’re saying rondon is terrible and not worth much. Rondon had a good walk year last year.
I’d love to see Rodon in Mariner teal on a fat one year “prove it” deal. Let’s solidify the pitching staff and move on to shoring up the offense
Kikuchi gifted the Mariners his $13 million player option for 2022. They should use that money to upgrade the pitching staff. Rodon is the best guy left on the board. The M’s analytic staff has a history of helping pitchers be their best. He should want to pitch with Robbie Ray and the youngsters in waiting.
If a pitching coach could teach Kikuchi how to get more movement on his fastball, he could be an excellent pick up. He tends to get hurt on FBs to RH batters. If he could change his arm angle or spin rate a little to get the ball to move more, he might not get hit as hard and could put up some well above average results. He’s the guy on this with the most upside if you ask me. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Houston trade Odorizzi and take a chance on Kikuchi. The Astros tend to get the absolute best out of most pitchers.
I wish him the best, was my half Japanese girlfriends favorite player, we saw him 4 times last year twice before the all star break and twice after and he was just not the same guy. The fastball was down at 92-93 whereas early in the year he was hitting 97-98 consistently.
Great arm, just a bit of a head case. I agree that the right scenario could see him flourish. I thought it was mind boggling when he declined his 14 mil option
Do you think he might just return to Japan? He can still make a heckuva living over there.
So much of new pitching philosophy centers around simplifying a pitcher’s repertoire. I remember guys used to *add* a pitch to their arsenals pretty frequently. Doesn’t seem to happen very often anymore.
But, I’m with you on Kikuchi, @Mantooth.
I’ve a specific plan (now) though: learn a cut FB like C.C. did at the end of his career. Definitely helped keep RH bats under (more) control.
Look at us! A sox guy & a Yankee guy teaming up to fix a Mariner.
Be interesting to see if Astros pick ups still get huge spin bumps without the sticky icky.
They seemed to have a great concoction
This is making me want the Angels to sign Kikuchi. We desperately need 157 innings of good ball at the end of the rotation.
As terrible as he was last season, Zach Davies could be a nice bounce back candidate for a team, especially a strong defensive team like the Giants or Cardinals that could limit the damage.
Honestly this list is pretty intriguing for the contenders looking for 5th starters. Or even non contenders who are looking for someone that they can shop to a contender at the deadline if he has a great first half.
Would definitely like any of them for the white Sox 5th starter…
Kikuchi was lights out the first half of the season en route to an All-Star appearance. If a new pitching coach can figure out the dude’s headspace and work on a consistent windup, Kikuchi easily has the most upside on this list…perhaps even more than Rodon because Kikuchi doesn’t have the injury history
After looking at this list the only way to add a 1 or 2 is through a trade. And as an Angels fan we are once again on the outside looking in, package Adell asap, sign Suzuki or Bryant for the OF.. Or add two high end relievers for the pen to shorten the game.