If you follow the Reds, you likely know the offseason story by now. It started with Tucker Barnhart being traded as soon as the offseason began. That was followed by this ominous quote from general manager Nick Krall: “Going into 2022, we must align our payroll to our resources and continue focusing on scouting and developing young talent from within our system.” Shortly after that, Nick Castellanos opted out of his contract and entered free agency, and Wade Miley was claimed off waivers by the Cubs.
It’s possible that the departures of Castellanos and Miley mean that the alignment of payroll and resources is now done and that no further salary trimming is required. However, that didn’t stop the rumor mill from grinding up Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle throughout November, as numerous teams were reportedly interested in acquiring them.
Whether they end up finalizing a deal or not, there are still other rotation slots to consider. Castillo, Gray and Mahle have gotten most of the attention in recent months, but the club still needs to think about their fourth and fifth starters. No team gets through a full season with just five starters either, due to injuries and underperformance, meaning the club will need to think about depth as well.
Vladimir Gutierrez should be pencilled into one of the backend spots after making 22 starts in 2021. The righty logged 114 innings with an ERA of 4.74, but strikeout and walk rates of just 17.7% and 9.3%, both of which are worse than league average. There are some reasons for optimism, however, as he’s only 26 and had better results in Triple-A last year. It was only three starts and 17 innings, but his 2.65 ERA was accompanied by a 31.3% strikeout rate, although his 10.4% walk rate was still high.
2021 was an excellent year for Reiver Sanmartin, who started the year in Double-A, getting promoted after logging 18 innings with a 0.50 ERA. In Triple-A, he added another 82 1/3 innings with a 3.94 ERA, 25.9% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk rate. The southpaw was called up to the big leagues as the season was winding down and made a pair of starts, throwing 11 2/3 innings with a 1.54 ERA. In the Dominican Winter League, he added another 31 innings with an ERA of 1.45. He’ll turn 26 in April.
Jeff Hoffman pitched in 31 games for the Reds in 2021, with 11 of those being starts. In those starts, he put up an ERA of 5.20, with an 18.5% strikeout rate and 14.2% walk rate. He was much better out of the ’pen, throwing 28 innings with an ERA of 3.54, 32.3% strikeout rate and 12.1% walk rate. Unlike Gutierrez and Sanmartin, he’s out of options, meaning he’ll likely be on the big league team either way, but it seems like the bullpen might be a better home for the 29-year-old.
Tony Santillan made four starts for the Reds in 2021, along with 22 relief appearances. He was fine enough in those four starts, as evidenced by his 3.78 ERA. But like Hoffman, he was even better out of the ’pen, putting up an ERA of 2.36, with a 33.3% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate. He has one option year remaining and is still young, turning 25 in April, meaning he could be used as Triple-A depth if he’s not needed on the big league club.
Riley O’Brien threw 112 2/3 Triple-A innings last year with an ERA of 4.55. His 24.7% strikeout rate is encouraging but his 11.2% walk rate concerning. He got called up to make one start for the Reds in September, but lasted only an inning and a third. He’ll turn 27 next week but still has options remaining.
Hunter Greene is considered one of the best prospects in baseball, landing in the top 35 on the Top 100 lists of Baseball America, MLB Pipeline and FanGraphs. He started 2021 in Double-A and dominated. Over seven starts and 41 innings, he had a 1.98 ERA, 37% strikeout rate and 8.6% walk rate. After a promotion to Triple-A, he wasn’t quite as dominant but still quite effective. Over 14 starts and 65 1/3 innings, he had a 4.13 ERA, strikeout rate of 28.6% and walk rate of 9.1%. He just turned 22 in August and was added to the 40-man roster in November.
There’s another highly-touted prospect in Nick Lodolo, who also appears on the three aforementioned Top 100 lists. Like Greene, he dominated at Double-A last year, throwing 44 innings over ten starts with an ERA of 1.84, strikeout rate of 39.3% and walk rate of 5.2%. He got promoted to Triple-A and made three starts before a shoulder strain finished his season. He’ll turn 24 this week but isn’t yet on the 40-man.
Further depth options include Graham Ashcraft, who finished 2021 at Double-A, and minor league signees Connor Overton and Ben Lively. Despite that crop of intriguing options, none of them should be considered locks for 2022. Gutierrez and Hoffman are the only ones with more than 45 MLB innings under their belts, and they both come with concerns.
In a vacuum, a team with a rotation consisting of three strong starters and two question marks should be adding and not subtracting, especially if they have designs on competing. The club was connected to Andrew Heaney before he signed with the Dodgers, meaning they have at least considered supplementing this group. However, it’s possible that move would have been combined with one of the oft-rumored trade scenarios of Gray, Castillo or Mahle.
Although the market for free agent starting pitching was largely picked over prior to the lockout, there are still some decent veteran options available, such as Michael Pineda, Tyler Anderson, Drew Smyly and Brett Anderson. A signing of that nature could theoretically add some stability to this highly volatile group without breaking the bank.
The Reds front office seems to be between a rock and a hard place here, as they can’t reasonably consider tearing down the roster at this point. After six straight losing season from 2014 to 2019, which included four straight seasons in the NL Central basement, they’ve recently opened a competitive window. But after two seasons of nudging just beyond the .500 mark, they can’t ask their fans to hold their noses and start the process all over again. However, they don’t seem to have been given the resources necessary to make an impact signing, which might force them to get creative about how they build their rotation for 2022. With that impressive depth, they should be able to navigate it to some degree. But that depth could either be Plan A or Plan B, depending on whether they add or subtract after the lockout is over.
It seems that with Lodolo and Greene so close to being called up that they should hang on to their top 3 and try to compete.
I agree. The BP is where they need to add some pieces. They also need to replace Castellanos. I would seriously consider resigning him if the length of the contract is cut to 3 years at or around 20 million per year.. They have no OF prospects who can remotely carry his load that are anywhere near close to the majors..
Castellanos will not have to settle for 3/60, so he’s not returning to Cincinnati.
100%. They need to “align their resources” to an outfielder.
Not really. Winker, Aquino, Naquin, Akiyama, Senzel, Friedl, and even Barrero give the Reds plenty of OF depth
Rsox – aside from Winker, which of those outfielders can they count on for solid contributions?
I wouldn’t sleep on Senzel and Aquino
Anything’s possible, but so far they haven’t done much.
Maybe. But neither has played a full season yet either
Health is a skill, and some players can’t stay healthy.
Health is not a skill. It’s fortune.
Diet, exercise – there are things people can do to tilt the odds one way or another.
Aquino hasn’t played a full season because he sucks. One trick pony who had a hot 6 weeks to start his ‘career.’
Quite true. Aquino has been bad outside of his start in 2019.
Lots of minor league players would love to have had even that hot six weeks in the majors, but Aquino is not someone the Reds should count on.
His K rate is bad, and many other metrics.
Senzel could be useful if he can stay healthy.
Lodolo & Greene aren’t ready for the bigs yet, and even when they are it will take a couple of years for them to develop into rotation mainstays.
This is not a good way of thinking. You need contributions from your prospects and pre-arb players to win in this league. Lodolo is 24, can’t wait much longer and Greene looks very good. It’s usually an exception if a young guy actually becomes a star after a couple of years if they start off slow.
Greene and Lodolo will probably each get minimum 15 starts in the majors in 2022.
Lodolo could be brought up now but not even on the 40 and Greene may only need 5 starts or so in AAA.
That’s what I scrolled down to write! With a solid staff, playing in mediocre division, and the possibility of expanded playoffs, the Reds are in a decent position to compete.
That’s some enviable talent on the way up. Hoffman could be a long reliever who spot starts. That’s an important role in today’s game.
I’d target whichever back end free agent has the best ground ball rate.
1.Castillo
2.Mahle
3.Gray
4.Greene
5.Lodolo
Make Hoffman your next CL as well !
Gutierrez will be #5. Lodolo won’t get added until later when they need another arm. He’s working his way back from injury and he’s not going to pitch a full season anyway, so no way the Reds will start his service clock early.
And if the season starts on time Greene will get a few “development” starts in AAA before he’s added to the rotation. Unless the rookie service time issue has gotten fixed under the new CBA.
i would consider dealing Vlad if I was them. his minor league numbers suggest that his early returns were probably a fluke.
Do they?
Shame ownership is going in this direction, With a roster that includes Votto, India, and Winker, they should be buying rotation pieces, not selling, The NLC is a weak enough division, that adding a starter and keeping what they have puts them right in the discussion.
Hard to believe Hoffman is only 29. Guess he was pretty young back when he was falling short of high expectations with the Rockies. Was the main piece they got from the Jays in return for Tulo if I remember correctly.
Like to see Hoffman finally put it together. Saw him frequently when he was in college, was there when he whiffed 16 in 8 innings. That was also the game he damaged his elbow, which required TJ surgery right before the draft. He was projected to go top 3, and scouts and baseball VIPs were everywhere (Theo Epstein, Kenny Williams, Charlie Manuel, etc.). Even with the injury Hoffman was drafted 9th overall. Hoffman still felt like he should have been the top pick. That’s how confident he was in himself. Colorado was the worst place for him to be traded to, as his devastating curveball was rendered moot in the high altitude. Reds should try him at closer. He’s got the mentality and the stuff for the role…
I wonder if Cincy could get Michael Conforto for the outfield for under market price. There are multiple options on the market and Conforto’s numbers were dreadful in a walk year, but the entire Mets offense collapsed in 2021 too. That could help bolster the lineup w/o breaking the bank.
Then again, I’d love to see the Mets trade either Cincinatti or Oakland for a mid-level SP w/o breaking the bank.
What the Reds should do and will do are probably 2 different things. I just don’t see them adding anyone significant to the roster. They can play a wait and see game, wait and see if Suarez bat returns, and to see if Stevensons bat continues while playing full time. Too many if’s, not enough dollars. I’d trade any of my top 3 arms and bring in some prospects. Their value will never be better, 2 years of control is a big value.
I like Stephenson but he has had some injury history in the minors.. If he goes down for an extended period, they are in trouble.. Reds management should be adding a few pieces instead of going into rebuild or partial rebuild mode.. It is obvious so far that they are just going through the motions with no real intent of winning.
I agree, this team has a lot of great pieces. They are not however a playoff team. To get there it would require money to add pieces. Bob will not spend money. So if they aren’t going to spend, what’s smarter? Standing pat, have a mediocre season, losing value on trade pieces, or trading pieces to improve the team for 23, 23? I’d go for the latter, the Reds have a lot of young guys coming up and a lot of money coming off the books in the next couple of seasons.
How does anyone call Tyler Anderson “decent?”
Cause he is exactly that, a decent four starter
After watching him pitch for the Giants, I think he’s more of a sixth starter. And not so decent.
It is perfect timing for Greene and Lodolo. Guitierrez was very solid last season. Centerfield and right field should be priority after the lockout.
They need to make a decision on Senzel. The wild card for center field is T.J. Friedel. This guy has some moxie. Reminds me of Ryan Freel.
I wouldn’t rule out the Reds trying to bring in a flipable veteran on either a minor league or low base salary contract.
I know it’s not the place but congrats to Bengals for their Super Bowl appearance for the first time in 40 years. I’m rooting for you guys all the way.
Moves that the Reds made were because of the lockout.
What the Reds will do after a new CBA is in place, has yet to be determined. Most likely the Reds will have a better chance to win their division in 2023.
That’s what I’m thinking. Bring Greene and Lodolo after they’ve mastered AAA, but limit their innings, particularly Greene. Then go all-in in 2023. As someone else mentioned, I might think about signing Conforto for the outfield.