Peyton Pallette, a pitcher at the University of Arkansas, has sustained a UCL injury that’ll require Tommy John surgery, as first reported by Kendall Rogers of D1 Baseball. That’ll obviously end Pallette’s third season in Fayetteville before it begins, with TJS procedures typically requiring a recovery timeline in the 14-16 month range.
It’s a crushing blow for the Razorbacks, as Pallette had been the expected ace of a team with legitimate national championship aspirations. It’s also a very notable development for major league teams, with the 6’1″ right-hander projecting as one of the top pitchers in the upcoming amateur draft. Earlier this week, Baseball America’s Carlos Collazo slotted Pallette as the class’ #13 overall prospect. Among college pitchers, only Tennessee’s Blake Tidwell (#12) ranked higher.
Pallette boasts a power arsenal, with Collazo writing that he typically sits in the 93-95 MPH range and has been clocked up to 99. His top secondary weapon is an impressive curveball with elite raw spin rates, while he also generates some promising arm-side action on his changeup. Pallette only made four relief appearances before the 2020 college season was canceled due to the pandemic, but he emerged as a key member of the Hogs’ starting staff last year.
Across 15 appearances (including 11 starts), Pallette worked 56 innings with a 4.02 ERA. He fanned 27.2% of opposing hitters against an 8.1% walk rate. He suffered a season-ending elbow injury last May, however, missing out on Arkansas’ run to super regionals. While it looked for a while as if he’d be able to rehab from that issue and return to the mound this season, that’ll unfortunately prove not to be the case.
It remains to be seen how significant a blow the surgery will prove to Pallette’s draft stock. Upon learning of the procedure, BA dropped him to 29th in their overall rankings. As that suggests, it’s not out of the question he still comes off the board in the first round. Last summer, the Blue Jays selected Ole Miss righty Gunnar Hoglund 19th overall, despite the fact that he’d undergone his own Tommy John procedure two months prior. Hoglund had a lengthier track record of success as a starting pitcher than Pallette has compiled, though. Perhaps a more apt reference point may be former LSU hurler Jaden Hill, selected 44th overall by the Rockies despite undergoing TJS after seven starts during his first season as a full-time rotation member.
16
Go get em in the second Cubbies!
californiaangels
Lol they did a mock draft and he went to the Angels.. even that is a curse
HalosHeavenJJ
That’s all it takes. A mock draft here and the elbow explodes.
A Seal
This sounds exactly like the kind of pick LAD would make. Top 15 overall talent that makes his way to pick 40? Go ahead!
HalosHeavenJJ
My first thoughts exactly.
Please, Hammer. Don't hurt 'em.
The Dodgers could also draft Kumar Rocker. He was projected better than this guy and he will have been recovering for a full year. I would take Rocker over this guy right now.
jbigz12
You’re assuming Rocker falls that far. This guy is going to fall further than Rocker is.
A Seal
Sure but he probably won’t fall that far and if he does how do they get the money to sign him? Don’t forget the exceeded the third luxury tax threshold so their first pick moves back ten spots and the Mets get an extra pick so the Dodgers don’t pick until #40. With regards to your comment above, to my knowledge a team can’t draft a player in different years after failing to sign them one year without the prior consent of the player.
Dorothy_Mantooth
The money to sign him won’t be an issue. Amateur draft signing bonus money is based off of when you pick and how many picks you have in the first 10 rounds I believe. Each pick has a slot value assigned to it, so they get a pool assigned based on the values of their slots. Teams never have to forfeit any of their amateur draft pool money. The league can only make teams forfeit some of their International Free Agent budget, based on going over the CBT and/or by signing QO free agents.
A Seal
Kumar wanted 6 million. Not sure how much he’ll get now, but no way does he get six million at pick 40. Slot value is something around two million, the Dodgers would basically have to go wayyyyyy underslot on every other pick in the draft to pay him even close to that. Maybe Kumar has fallen to the point where he’s signable for less, I don’t pretend to know anything about the situation and haven’t followed it. Pallette on the other hand should be signable at 40.
JoeBrady
Rocker wanted to get paid #4 money, where he would’ve been had he not been injured.. Whoever drafts Rocker should have an agreement on TJS, assuming you have doctors that agree.
tstats
If rocker falls to the dodgers I’d bet they take him. Big if tho
jbigz12
Rocker also lost all his leverage being a Senior and coming off TJ.
I bet he gets 3MM at the most to sign this year.
Please, Hammer. Don't hurt 'em.
Rocker is projected to go anywhere between 24th-59th in the draft so really an team could take him. A lot of teams might be able to get him in the 2nd round.
My guess is Rocker will just have to take around the slot value of wherever he is drafted. He doesn’t really have any leverage. The cat is out of the bag about his injury. He didn’t pitch at all last season to boost his value. If he doesn’t take whatever is offered he’s just going to have to take another year off which would tank his draft value even more.
There was a pitcher years ago (I forgot his name) who was drafted high in the first round by the Yankees. This was a little while before analytics got huge but he was mostly known for his high velocity fastball. He was very highly touted. The Yankees offered him something like $4 million and he wouldn’t sign because he wanted $6 million or so. He sat out the year and then got drafted again the next year lower and offered even less money. He kept refusing to sign and this went on for several years with him getting offered less and less money each time. I wish I knew his name because it was a great example of what could happen to a player who refuses to sign. Unless you are going to play in Japan like Carter Stewart did it only gets worse and worse every year. The last I heard the pitcher was working at a hardware store and is basically broke. He never got any money. After about 4 or 5 years of him tanking in the draft teams realized he couldn’t even throw as hard anymore and stopped drafting him altogether. The guy could have been a multi-millionair pro baseball player but instead chose to be a broke hardware store employee. Does anyone remember who this guy was? I think the Yankees actually drafted him twice and other teams drafted him as well. He kept asking for more money and kept getting offered less. It cost him his entire career.
Tavares
Matt Harrington?
It was worse than the “$4 million offered and he wanted 6”, he asked for a $4.95 million signing bonus and the Rockies’ final offer was $4 million and a guaranteed major league callup by the end of 2002 (2 years after the draft)
Ron Tingley
Thanks for bringing this guy up..
espn.com/espn/eticket/story?page=090423/harrington
HalosHeavenJJ
Sucks for the kid.
In general, going to college as a pitcher is risky. In the minors clubs will monitor the innings and pitches of the real prospects. At the college level, coaches want to win.
cookmeister 2
to be fair, he didn’t even throw 60 innings last year
jbigz12
Yeah. He would’ve thrown significantly more had that been a professional season.
Pitchers are risky in general. The further you go out—the more risky it’s going to be.
JoeBrady
Rocker had a 131 pitch count in his no-hitter v Duke.
tstats
He will never throw 131 pitches in a single start off the major league mound is my guess
JeffreyChungus
Jaden Hill type beat
Chaim Bloom gonna be all over him at #42
Dorothy_Mantooth
Such a shame, but he has to come out after his Junior year or he won’t get much of a signing bonus as a senior. He should still warrant a bonus of $1M+ even with TJS.
greatgame 2
Very risky to the arm to throw up to 99 mph.
BirdieMan
He left a game last spring with elbow discomfort. Could have had surgery then, and be halfway 5hrough his recovery.
iverbure
If every pitcher got TJ because their elbow was sore every pitcher would have TJ 4 times.
BirdieMan
You really think University of Arkansas didn’t have the facilities to give the kid an MRI last spring? They were probably just hoping they could do platelet rich plasma therapy, and get him on the mound for their upcoming season. I doubt they had the pitcher’s best interest in mind.
everdark81
“Among college pitchers, only Tennessee’s Blake Tidwell (#12) ranked higher.” It’s Blade Tidwell, with a D. Go Vols! utsports.com/sports/baseball/roster/blade-tidwell/…