Almost exactly two years ago, December 30th of 2019, the White Sox signed Dallas Keuchel to a three-year contract that guaranteed him $55.5MM. Keuchel was excellent in the shortened 2020 campaign, throwing 63 1/3 innings with an ERA of 1.99. However, there were reasons to be suspicious of those outcomes, as all of the advanced metrics thought he deserved much worse. (4.30 xERA, 3.98 xFIP, 4.57 SIERA.)
That discrepancy was largely due to his declining strikeout rate, as well as an unsustainable 4.7% HR/FB rate. Keuchel has always been a groundball guy and has never had tremendous strikeout stuff. In his Cy Young season, 2015, he hit his high point with a strikeout rate of 23.7%, just a few ticks above that year’s league average of 20.4%. Since then, the league average has trended north, landing at 23.2% in 2021. Keuchel’s, however, has been steadily dropping and was at 16.3% in 2020.
In 2021, his strikeout rate fell further, landing at 13.2%, and his batted ball luck ran out, sending his ERA soaring up to a career-high 5.28. The advanced metrics felt that was largely deserved, based on the lack of Ks, as evidenced by his 6.20 xERA, 4.74 xFIP and 5.01 SIERA.
With one guaranteed year remaining on his contract, it makes sense for the White Sox to look into trading him for a couple of reasons. First, there’s his diminished effectiveness, as illustrated by those declining strikeout rates and increasing ERA. It’s possible that he could turn things around, but he turns 34 tomorrow, New Year’s Day, meaning he would have to buck traditional aging trends to do it.
Secondly, there’s his salary, as he’ll be paid $18MM in 2022, along with a $1.5MM buyout on a $20MM club option for 2023. The team is in unprecedented payroll territory, for them, having set a franchise record in 2021 by having an Opening Day payroll of $128.7MM. They’re projected to blow way past that in 2022, currently sitting around $180MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource.
However, the problem with that club option is that it’s actually a club/vesting option. It becomes guaranteed if Keuchel pitches at least 160 innings in each of 2021 and 2022. He’s already hit the first of those benchmarks, as he threw 162 innings in 2021. Another season of 160 innings and that $20MM for 2023 becomes guaranteed. That’s not a difficult line for Keuchel to reach as long as he’s healthy. Over the past eight seasons, he reached that threshold in six of them, if we prorate his 2020 innings total. In 2017, he missed some time with neck issues and came just shy, at 145 2/3 innings. And in 2019, he got to 112 2/3, but that was because he lingered on the free agent market until being signed by Atlanta a few months into the season and didn’t make his season debut until June 21st. In other words, apart from that neck issue in 2017, he’s been a fairly reliable innings eater, meaning he has a decent chance of triggering that option.
This is where it gets tricky to line up a trade. A team with some wiggle room in their budget might be willing to take on Keuchel’s $18MM for this coming season, but they would have to also consider the distinct possibility that Keuchel stays healthy and doubles their commitment, both in dollars and in years. It’s possible a team could acquire Keuchel and try to intentionally limit his innings to prevent the option from vesting, but that type of direct manipulation has the potential to lead to a grievance, either an official one or an unofficial one. As an example of how an unofficial grievance could hurt a team, it could reduce their chances of signing or extending players if they have shown themselves to be underhanded in their dealings with players. Perhaps the White Sox could sweeten the pot for the team on the other end of the deal by including a prospect or two, but the trouble is that their farm isn’t in great shape, at least according to Baseball America, who ranked their system dead last in the league in their most recent Organization Talent Rankings.
Perhaps the best move for the White Sox is to stand pat with Keuchel and hope that he has a bounceback campaign. Their starting five rotation looks to be solid, with Keuchel joined by Lance Lynn, Lucas Giolito, Dylan Cease and Michael Kopech. However, teams need more than five starters to get through a season and their depth isn’t terribly strong. Jonathan Stiever and Jimmy Lambert are depth options on the 40-man roster, but neither has more than 15 innings of MLB experience, and even their Triple-A numbers aren’t terribly exciting so far. Even if the club finds the money to add another starter, they might need Keuchel’s help to get through the season in an AL Central that is becoming more competitive.
Don’t know how the Sox would pull it off, maybe add a prospect like in the Jbj trade?
Don’t worry about Dr. Chim. I’ve seen his posts before. All he ever does is complain about people. I’ve personally never read him saying anything about baseball. I’ve only seen him comment about the way he dislikes how other people comment.
I think the White Sox could trade Keuchel if they ate some of his salary. Innings is a valuable commodity in this game. He’s a very serviceable #5 starter and #4 on some teams. His value would be a lot higher if they kept his innings down by 2 and and a third innings last season. Considering he didn’t have a great year the White Sox probably could have been justified in skipping his rotation turn against a right handed heavy lineup once. Or even just pulling him a couple innings earlier in one of his worst games. It might have actually helped the team win to give Kopech one of his starts. Also, that way an acquiring team would be able to pitch him as much as they want. There is no way any team will let him pitch more than 159 and two-thirds innings next season. That vesting option is just too dreadful for a pitcher like him.
I could actually maybe see some team trading something for a combo of Keuchel and Kimbrel. The White Sox would probably have to eat at least half the money though. Pitching is hard to come by and it would be a potential high reward for the acquiring team. It wouldn’t hurt too bad if it flops because it’s just a one year experiment as long as they don’t let Keuchel pitch 160 innings. No one is going to want those guys at that salary though. The White Sox will have to eat a sizeable portion of it or attach some kind of mid-tier prospect. It might just make more sense for the White Sox to hold onto both until the trade deadline. I’m certain someone will at least want Keuchel by then to replace some injured starter like when the Cardinals acquired Jon Lester and JA Happy last year.
I’m excited for next season and really ready for this lockout to be over. I think we still have at least a month or two to go before I get my wish. I’m guessing it ends in February and less than a month before Spring training starts. If that early.
@ Please Hammer, spot on.
I’d love somehow if White Sox & Marlins got together on a trade. Eloy Jimenez, Kimbrel, Zach Collins and Leury Garcia for Jazz Chisholm, one of their young starters & low level prospect (with Sox eating some money). Sox should go sign Soler on like a 3yr/34 mil front loaded deal (14, 12, 8) with opt out after 2nd year.
Vaughn plays LF, Sheets/Soler platoon in RF and DH or Engel plays RF against lefty starters.
Anderson, Chisholm, Robert, Abreu, Grandal, Soler, Moncada, Sheets, Vaughn. Wow!
Eloy is going nowhere. What we saw in 2020 was just a start. His contact hitting makes him top 3 in the lineup behind Robert with Abreu and/or Anderson. Chisholm while talented, will never hit as well as Eloy if he stays healthy, and there’s no reason he should not in 2022. As far as the young starter addition, If they were to trade all of those you mentioned, they should get more than a young arm. behind Lynn and Giolito on the staff.
Leury was given his contract because he will probably be their main 2nd basemen next season, barring a trade for one or a FA signing.
Kimbrel might bring that back himself if the Sox decide to trade him before spring training. Remember, right now he really doesn’t have a role in the Sox bullpen over a 162 game season. He was ineffective I think after being traded to the Sox because he has a Closer mentality, not a 7th-8th inning guy. So unless Hendriks is down, he will not have that job on the Sox in 2022. His $18 million QO is perfect trade bait for a team that needs a quality closer. Not saying they will get someone’s #1-#2 starter, but there are teams who have full staffs of #2-#3 starters. Package him together with a Sheet or Vaughn and you could get a better return in SP. Collins is going nowhere, we need him around with Grandal being injured quite a bit in his first 2 seasons.
Eloy is staying out.
Jazz is staying out.
No one else wants to pay more than 6 million for Kimbrel.
The problem with trading Dallas is that he is no longer very good.
Kimbrel is being paid $18 million this season, so someone will be paying more than $6 million for him this season. Whether or not the Sox get anything of value in return, is debatable. It would be great if they could somehow get a contact hitting RF or 2nd baseman of the future. But I don’t think Rick Hahn has it in him to work that great of a deal. The loss of Madrigal will be felt for years, as he hits .300+ for the next 10 years with the Cubs.
David Fletcher produced 3.2 fWAR for the Angels in his best season. in 2021 he produced .3.
.3 fWAR
You gotta have more than one skill (getting on base) to produce more than replacement value YOY.
Rich Hahn, even on a drunk dare wouldn’t make that trade.
I know White Sox fans are desperate to be rid of Kimbrel, but to throw in Jimenez as a kicker is crazy.
I said no one “else”, meaning other than White Sox.
@Mike169: Kimbrel is only making $16 million next season and he is no longer QO eligible. The Red Sox QO’d Kimbrel before he signed with the Cubs so no one can ever QO him again. I personally don’t see anyone eating more than $10 million of Kimbrel’s contract next season unless the White Sox offer a prospect along with him. Kimbrel just isn’t that highly valued now. I don’t see any way the White Sox get the return you expect unless they either pay virtually all of Kimbrel’s contract or take on another bad contract in return. Picking up Kimbrel’s $16 million option was a mistake. Not as big of a mistake as trading Madrigal to get him but a mistake nonetheless. There is no way Kimbrel would get anything close to $16 million a year on the free agent market so the White Sox are going to have to give up something else just to get rid of his contract. Not the other way around. No team is trading a 2nd baseman of the future or starting outfielder for 1 year of Kimbrel at $16 million. Maybe the outfielder but only if that outfielder is already overpaid and on a bad contract himself. The Mariners might do it for first baseman Evan White but I’m not sure the White Sox should want any part of that deal as it will cost them more money in the long term. It would allow them to eventually move Abreu to DH and get a true defensive first baseman. White isn’t worth the money though and he can’t hit. I think the White Sox are somewhat stuck with Kimbrel because no other team wants him at that price unless the White Sox make their team better in another way on top of that.
That’s assuming fWAR measures the metrics you’re looking for. The team that values something that others are missing, gets what they are looking for cheap.
I am not sure sure that trading for Kimbrel was a mistake by the White Sox. It was a gamble to try to do well in the post-season. But after the gamble failed, the clear mistake was doubling down and picking up Kimbrel’s option. Unless the White Sox intend to keep Kimbrel, they would have done better to spend that money in other ways.
MannyBeingMVP
I am not sure sure that trading for Kimbrel was a mistake by the White Sox. It was a gamble to try to do well in the post-season
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Every deadline trade involves someone trying to get better in the playoffs. But I still don’t know what the WS were trying to accomplish. You almost automatically lose some value trading for a closer, only to make him a setup.
And on the day of the trade Kopech had a 1.52/2.73 ERA/FIP.
If they needed a closer, I would still call it a substantial overpay. But if all they wanted was a good 7th/8th inning guy, someone like Graveman went for a fraction of the price that Kimbrel went for.
Jazz is a not a polished hitter who strikes out constantly, no way would I dish out Eloy for him. Jazz not a player I would be ineterested in. Alcantara is another story.
you would think that hahn checked for who’s interested in getting kinbrel before he exercised the option on him…and that if he wasn’t pretty sure some team would take him off our hands, that he wouldn’t have exercised that option.
For Spring Training to start on time, they’ll need to fundamentally agree to terms by the end of January or first week in February at the latest as it will take a week or two from there to prepare the final CBA documents and get them signed. The first spring training games are scheduled for February 26th. Pitchers and catchers are due to report by February 15th, so they don’t have a lot of time to get this hammered out if they want to start on time. I wouldn’t be surprised if ST ends up getting delayed by a week or two, if not longer.
It’s going to be a tough season for players to get ready for the start of the season. There are going to be a lot of players who haven’t signed by the start of ST so it’s going to give them a very short window to get prepared, especially free agent pitchers. Some will end up being held back for extended spring training so they can build up their arms. It’s time to light a fire under both sides’ rear ends and get this done! If they are close on terms, hopefully the league will end the lockout as a sign of good faith and allow players enough time to sign with a new club and start using team facilities. That’s the best we can hope for at this point.
Kimbrel and Keuchel “combo” is 34M. Unless the White Sox are tossing in Andrew Vaughn and another young player, I see zero reason why a team would just bail them out.
Just throwing this out there …..thoughts on Cano for Kimbrel and Keuchel.
Keuchel gives you an inning eating number 4/5 guy and is a ground ball pitcher with a hopefully improved Mets defense this season. If he stays true to form will give you 160 innings+ and help give the bullpen a little more rest. If he doesnt cut him and let him walk. If he does you have someone there when walker and carrascos contracts are up at the end of the year. This also creates more depth on the roster for pitching which the mets proved last year they really need especially for that 4th and 5th spot.
Kimbrel gives you a co closer with diaz so you can give him a little more rest or rotate around lugo kimbrel and diaz for the 8th and 9th innings depending on which is the highest leverage.
Cano gives the team a regular 2nd baseman or DH and allows Garcia to be the super sub that plays around the diamond like he did last year and give guys rest or fill in for injury or becomes your regular DH. Worst case he splits the money owed to Kimbrel and Keuchel basically into to 2 years instead of one Since their contracts are worth about the same while also removing the potential of the option vesting further hurting their salary next season. This also frees up the little bit of a log jam with McNeil / Davis / Escobar for the mets.
This seems like all 3 need a change of scenery and this might be the way to do this. Rip it to shreds or Add some commentary but seemed a little fitting.
As a Sox fan, I’d do this in a heartbeat, even if we had to throw in some cash. Curious to see what a Mets fan thinks of it.
I am a mets fan 🙂 I think this is one where everyone makes out the only catch is the NTC i know Cano has and if he willing to to move
@Flyby: at first I didn’t like the trade proposal because I thought the Sox would never do it. Cano is older and he will cost the White Sox an extra $20 million in 2023 when Keuchel and Kimbrel would both be totally off the books. That’s on top of the steroid baggage. This deal would definitely hurt the White Sox after next season. When Cano is the payoff that’s not usually a good idea.
I like the deal a little more though now that I’ve thought about it. It would save the White Sox at least $10 million for next season. It also could fill the obvious need they have at second base. Keuchel and Kimbrel combined are probably the better option but Cano can help the White Sox a lot more than he could help most teams. I think the Mets would have to at least kick in the $6 million difference Cano will cost over the next 2 seasons. Then it becomes an even trade. Better yet the White Sox should ask the Mets to cover the last year of Cano’s contract so it will be like the White Sox had Kimbrel and Keuchel leave as free agents anyway.
In terms of players, I think this trade could really help out both teams. I think the Mets become better with Kimbrel and Keuchel. I also think Cano taking over 2nd base could, at least in theory, really help the White Sox. If Cano would accept the trade the two sides would both benefit from coming together to figure out a deal. The Mets get rid of Cano and get more pitching. The White Sox get rid of Keuchel and Kimbrel and get a 2ns baseman. It could work. Any of the 3 players could completely flop though so it’s a roll of the dice for both teams involved. It’s a shame the White Sox even have to consider stuff like this just because they traded Madrigal.
Box #1 had Craig Kimbrel in it. Box #2 had Nick Madrigal and over $16 million cash in it. For some reason the White Sox thought it was a good idea to not pick box #2. Even though they didn’t have a 2nd baseman.
“I like the deal a little more though now that I’ve thought about it. It would save the White Sox at least $10 million for next season. It also could fill the obvious need they have at second base. Keuchel and Kimbrel combined are probably the better option but Cano can help the White Sox a lot more than he could help most teams. I think the Mets would have to at least kick in the $6 million difference Cano will cost over the next 2 seasons. Then it becomes an even trade. Better yet the White Sox should ask the Mets to cover the last year of Cano’s contract so it will be like the White Sox had Kimbrel and Keuchel leave as free agents anyway.”
I think maybe a mil or two could change hands but in the end this is about moving money from glut position to needed positions. The salary the mets take on extra will be taxed so that 6 mil goes down plus lets assume Keuchel doesnt get the vest option there is a buyout which i think is a few mil. Maybe a contingent on if the option vests or not with the mets i would be ok with and what it takes to waive the ntc clause.
There are Keuchel types available for cheaper on the FA market and in other trades and with Kimbrel it is not known which one you going to get especially with him not being the full time closer. On the flip, Cano is the same kind of a wild bag but where Keuchel is pretty consistent in his innings pitched (not necessarily starring in other stats) Cano has been consistent with the hitting and staying on the field (bans not included). Worst worst case he slides into the DH role. Could it have been the steroids that kept him consistent. Its a possibility but he has always been around the same bat for his career. While adding some payroll flexibility to other positions.
We might disagree on what side has the best players but i think there is enough on the plate (assuming cano waives ntc) that should be a conversation and probably just minor adjustments to get something done.
“There are Keuchel types” available in Double and Triple A ball. Last year he looked like he was afraid of putting a pitch anywhere near the strike zone.
@Flyby: I wouldn’t say sliding Cano into the DH is the “worst worst case scenario” at all. Cano is pushing 40 now. 39 years old next season I believe. He hasn’t played baseball in a full year and the last time he did he was on steroids. It’s reasonable to assume Cano was using steroids because he wouldn’t be able to perform anymore as a clean player. When players age it’s not usually a slow decline. They tend to drop hard and fast. At 39 years old having not played in a year and being totally off the juice it’s very possible, almost likely, that Cano’s steep decline started a year ago and no one knows because he hasn’t played. No one would be surprised if Cano shows up opening day a shell of himself and swinging a wet newspaper like Chris Davis. That would be a huge risk for the White Sox with his salary and especially because he is signed for twice as long as Keuchel or Kimbrel. The White Sox wouldn’t just have to endure his terrible performance next year. They would have to deal with it the year after that. By then the Mets would be totally off the hook with Keuchel and Kimbrel.
I’m also not sure the Mets having to pay more of a luxury tax is anything that should even be considered for the White Sox. The Sox don’t have to pay a tax on them because they kept their team salary low enough for that not to be a factor. The Mets will but that’s only because the Mets did that to themselves. It’s also part of the price the Mets would have to pay for getting out of the last year of Cano’s contract. It may hurt Mets with the luxury tax next season but it also saves them over $20 million on their luxury tax hit in 2023 while Cano hurts the White Sox luxury tax line in 2023.
I think the trade could work for both teams but I think you are underestimating how much more of a risk Cano is than the other players involved. Cano hasn’t played in over a year. The last time he did play he was cheating. Cano is 5 years older than any other player in the deal but he’s still under contract for twice as long. Cano could easily already be so bad that any team should release him like many players at his age. We just may have not found out yet since he has been suspended for his entire age 38 season.
That’s kind of why I think it makes more sense if the Mets cover his last year of the contract. Even though the deal could help the White Sox it’s almost just as likely to hurt them a lot. It doesn’t make a whole lot of sense for the White Sox to add more than $20 million to their 2023 payroll for a guy like Cano. It would almost just be better for them to bite the bullet this season so they can have all that free payroll space in 2023 to sign younger, better players who don’t come with baggage.
I like the potential for the deal on paper but based on those things I said I think the Mets are the ones who are going to have to make the bigger sacrifice. No team is going to trade for Cano based on the absolute assumption that he will hit anything at all like he did over a year and a half ago when he was 2 years younger and on steroids.
I hear what you are saying Cano could be on the decline but until i see it i dont think he falls off a cliff. He always had a good eye at the plate and fairly smooth swing throughout his career so i see a more Nelson Cruz with maybe a little less power and less strike outs than a Chris Davis which if i remember right he had deteriorating vision after that monsterous season/run.
Outside of a half season blip of kimbrel with the cub earlier 2021 season Kimbrel is definitely in decline. With a rotating closer (which based on last year the white sox arent doing but could change) i hope he comes back to a 130 era+ form as he and diaz should get regular work but will be rested as you dont automatically have to go straight to the Diaz or straight to Kimbrel every night you have a choice. Then move Lugo to be the high leverage guy or potential opener as needed.
Keuchel was declining before the covid season but i guess the shorter season and extra rest helped but he regressed to his prior form and even worse in 2021. The only thing im hoping is he eats innings and gets back to maybe a mid to high 4 as our 5th starter and go 6 to 7 innings..
If we are to pay cano’s next year contract and then have to pay the additional 14/16 mil for kimbrel and keuchel this year, does this really give the mets much incentive of bad contract swaps? They could go out and get younger options Pineda, maybe blow the difference and get a Kikuchi, or a rebound on Duffy.
The same i dont think can be said for the White Sox, could Cano have fallen off a cliff, maybe, but like i said based on what i have seen he has always had a fairly consistent swing and good eye his whole career. Also who are you getting in the market now that is better than garcia unless you plan on moving someone out of position or playing with the top guys Correa/Story/Bryant. He still played 2nd pretty well in his last time playing and my guess is his steroid use was more for recovery than enhancing similar to clemens.
It’s for this year only, and they’re not in danger of exceeding the luxury threshold. There’s nothing that compels the Sox to move either one. . They both serve useful purposes.
Keuchel is an innings-eater. And they’ll need that as they increase Kopech’s innings. And Kimbrel was just worn out last year. The Cubs overused him and he ran out of gas. If he returns to form, the Sox would have a deep, lockdown pen.
The Sox don’t want Robinson Cano!!
great idea…if the sox can pull that off, you get a job in the front office!
right you are…but they don’t want keuchel or kimbrel, even more! trade 2 “don’t wants” to acquire just one “don’t want” is a huge win!
a big thumbs up for that!
Please Hammer….stop making sense! I say that as a Mets fan. Cano can still hit, but he needs some days off to maximize his abilities. Dude seems to be well liked and if he does juice….it’s win/win because if he gets caught again he is banned, and he won’t be owed any more $$. If he juices and doesn’t get caught…he could stay in that .800+ OPS range, which is definitely worth keeping in a lineup most days.
To other teams, a deal would make less sense…but CWS need a 2B, and Cano does have some upside…but also a downside. The Mets have a crowded infield, though I think they trade McNeil….one of my fav. players, unfortunately. Keuchel….I’d roll the dice w him, same for Kimbrel. I have no idea if Kimbrel will pitch well at all, for half a season, or stay healthy and be a big contributor. I’d be happy w at least half of a season and Kuechel eating innings as the #5. The biggest issue is Cano’s full no trade rights. The jammed infield might be motivation enough because he is <400 hits away from 3000….and playing most games with CWS, as opposed to some games with the Mets will likely hold some appeal.
It kinda is….it frees up a roster spot and fills a need at 2B. Cano might be a cheater by juicing, but dude can rake. 1-2 games off per week, and I think Cano still produces at the plate and plays well enough in the field to not hurt whichever team has him.
I rather see the Yankees going after him, a another lefty starter , ground ball pitcher which the Yankees love having, and a vet to help the young guys out.
The Sox need Keuchel to eat some innings. They’re not trading him now. What would be the point? They need the guy. It’s just a one-year contract.
If you did an article on Mrs Dallas Keuchel, you might get more clicks. Just a thought…
Thank you Bucsfan. You’re smarter than the average bear (or buc).
Didn’t know who is wife/finance/girlfriend was. I checked her out, and yes, you are correct!
Dallas got engaged March 2021.
Messed him up for 2021 season with all of those wedding plans.
Comeback player of year in 2022.
ChiSoxfan, respect brother for your dedication to the toughest franchise in baseball.
Breaking News: Professional Athlete has attractive wife
Personally I think the two of them (Keuchel and Nash) are a pair who deserve each other. Both it seems, are likely high maintenance.
Dogbone- I dare you to post something that isn’t completely negative. Just try it
How about this: Your Chisox could finish in 2nd place in the division this year, with a few breaks.
1st will do just fine, actually.
I don’t see him as particularly moveable based on his 2021 performance. He’s in the J.A. Happ zone, similar to his final year with the Yankees. He also had a pricey vesting option. The White Sox can simply slot him as the 5th starter and make him prove he deserves to move up in the rotation. 5th starters generally don’t reach 160 innings.
I agree. The White Sox made this potential mess and they’d be best to just try and work through it.
I agree. Its funny how they present it like the White Sox have the option to trade him. No one is taking that contract except for a similar bad contract. I doubt TOR would give up Grichuk for Kuechel.
I think the best use of Keuchel would be as 6th starter-swing man. If he shows a dead cat bounce he’d be fine in that role. It would just be a “happy accident” that he didn’t reach 160 innings if they can keep him from regular turns in the rotation.
@Gina agreed. 6 man rotation whenever possible. Keep him on short leash when he does start.
Thanks to MLBTR for awesome site.
At this point Rey Lopez might be a better option as #5. But Dallas could be a long reliever/swing man and be useful to the club.
Maybe it was actually worth extending the QO to Rodon and hoped he accepted, and slotting him in front of Keuchel?
They could move Kopech and/or Crochet into the rotation, pushing Keuchel into the 6th starter role. Isn’t that one of their development goals with those guys? I’m not sure how they’ll do it, but there’s a better chance a supermodel unexpectedly calls me and asks me out on a date than Reinsdorf let’s that option vest!
Rodon is gone at this point, Boras wants at least a 3-year deal in the $60 million range. The Sox should have tried to unload Kuechel after 2020, as a lifelong Sox fan and statistic nut (Fantasy Team since 1985), I could tell that his numbers were askew. They could have gotten a nice piece to the puzzle for 2021 and beyond for him then. Now, and especially with the 2023 guarantee if he hits 160 innings, they would be lucky to get a A or AA level prospect that will not have an impact in 2022, if ever.
If you think you could have seen something askew with Keuchel, don’t you think that pretty much every front office likely saw the same thing and then some because they have over 100 times as many resources as you or I do in terms of player research and statistical analysis? I’m not saying they did or didn’t try and unload Keuchel, but if it was so easy to see what was wrong with him, do you really think the return would have been that much greater then compared to now?
Agreed, but it would not be the first time a team capitalized just on a player’s previous year’s statistics. And not every GM is as statistically advanced as the rest. How else do you describe Big Game James Shield being traded for Tatis Jr? Shields’s numbers were terrible the year the Sox traded for him and he went consistently downhill after the trade. And Tatis JR was the Sox #1 SS prospect at the time, even if he wasn’t that highly touted early on. But you could argue that Rick Hahn and Kenny Williams knew the kid would be special because they signed him at the age of 16.
I think you could make a better argument, that Kenny Williams and Hahn just totally blew it with the Shields trade. I have a feeling that move was Kenny’s fall from grace. Hahn is now making the calls.
Tatis Jr. was nowhere near the talent he is now when he was traded. Also, that was 5-1/2 years ago, and front office knowledge has improved significantly since then. And just about every international free agent signs at age 16. Some work out spectacularly, some go nowhere.
The Tatis story is old and boring.
Get a life!
It’s been beaten to death, but two things can be true at the same time.
The Shields trade was dumb because he wasn’t a good pitcher when they acquired him, but also no one had any idea how good Tatis was going to be, and that he was the throw in piece of a deal that involved a top 100 pitching prospect.
The deal was bad, but the idea they should have known how good Tatis was going to be is false, because he was never seen as a top prospect by anyone.
I find it funny how the numbers he put up in 2020 indicated he would be be in 2021, but actually resulted in great results when he put up those numbers
One additional issue, @Rob, is that Kopech looks to already be slotted in the rotation, I’m guessing as Rodon’s replacement. Considering how exceptionally well Rodon pitched, and that Kopech is both an unknown as a starter and whose innings will likely be limited, then it’s fair to say the White Sox are weaker, particularly factoring in that Kopech is no longer available out of the pen to help the starters. Net result is a weaker starting rotation and a weaker pen. I don’t believe they see Crochet as a starter option. It feels like they always viewed him from the point they drafted him as a potentially dominant bullpen arm. Even if they do see him as a starter, his innings will also be limited, putting further stress on a bullpen that would be without two of their best bullpen arms who are now in the rotation.
I fear the Sox made a shortsighted decision on Rodon based on something that shouldn’t be a factor: money. Outside of NY and LA, the White Sox are in the majorest of major markets. They are a high-revenue team. They have an extremely wealthy owner who is in his 80s. They have just entered a win-now window. At the same time, they are objectively not as good as the Astros, Rays, Yankees, Jays, maybe the Red Sox, teams they’ll have to beat in the postseason. So 2021 was good in that they’ve returned to being a legit contender. They need to build off that. So far the indications are they’re not, but there will be time, although compressed, and players available post the lockout. They’re also probably hoping for full and healthy seasons from Eloy and Robert for help. It should, but they have to address a now weaker starting rotation and potentially weaker pen. That weakness can undo a team over the 162-game grind.
So back to Rodon, they should have offered him the QO. He’s a Boras client with a strong season behind him. He’s not accepting. We’re hearing Boras is shooting for a 3/60, or a $20M AAV. He may not get that, but that’s Boras’s mindset, and there appears to be interest. The Sox should have known that. Take the pick at minimum. If Boras does surprise and accepts, then you got Rodon back on a one-year commitment, after they built up his innings in 2021. He can go further now in 2022. I know Sox fans are concerned his arm is toast, but the more likely explanation was he simply wore down. Boras has his MRIs. Teams will all check his medicals. Boras isn’t concerned.
I could be wrong. I watch the Sox from afar. They’re not my team, so I’d be curious what Sox fans think. I like things they’ve done, but I feel they’re going to manage a strong core into goodness but not greatness.
that’s very perceptive for a non sox fan. which team do you pull for?
I don’t see a high demand, but if the Sox want to swap big contracts, maybe Keuchel to LA for Justin Upton? Gets them out from under Keuchel’s option at least.
Upton has no trade contract and probably wants to finish out his career at home in southrrn California without uprooting his family just to help out Chisox.
Correct answer. He’s not going anywhere away from the US Southwest.
Upton is from Virginia. He has homes in Newport Beach, the Phoenix area and in the Atlanta area.
Keuchel would be a decent match for the Angels, as they use a 6-man rotation which would make it almost impossible for the vesting option to trigger.
Keuchel has always been healthy, and would also give the Halos some “known mediocrity” which might help them as Sandoval, Deitmers, and some of the other young arms continue to establish themselves.
another great idea…if hahn could pull it off.
Reynaldo Lopez is their other option at 5. Crochet will need to be stretched out eventually too. Lot of options for Tony to work with. I don’t see movement of this contract without creating a hole elsewhere on the MLB roster. Can’t wait for post lockout market, gonna be fun.
Crochet is never going to start. He doesn’t have enough pitches, and struggles with command.
And Crochet has a highly suspect injury history.
Lucas Giolito barely has 3 pitches. Chris Sale has 3 pitches. Garrett Crochet has 3 pitches (2 of them are Plus). Carlos Rodon basically has 3 pitches.
To your point on his command – he will be 23 this season. Has not thrown a pitch in the minors.
Crochet is not Sale, Rodon or Giolito. All three were more highly touted prospects with better arsenals and more starting experience.
People keep forgetting he did t even start much in college. And as Dogbone mentioned, he’s had injury concerns.
His change up is not a good pitch, and the velocity on his fastball declined by the end of the season.
Besides, he’s too valuable right now in the bullpen, and could potentially serve as the set up man next season. It makes no sense to move a potentially elite reliever with a questionable outlook as a starter and health issues out of the bullpen on a contending team.
Looks like he walked more batters than usual last year as well. That’s usually a sign of a pitcher who no longer trusts his stuff. Maybe a move to the NL? I don’t see any obvious suitors other than maybe the Cubs. Keuchel for Heyward with the Cubs throwing some money south?
Please no Heyward on the Southside, we already have a light-hitting (who may hit better than Heyward next season and beyond) sub-outfielder in Adam Engel.
I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Heyward is a candidate to rebound if he gets away from the Cubs. I think Chicago has made the same mistake with him that Atlanta did. They look at his size and obvious strength and they can’t resist the urge to try to get more homers out of him. He just looks like a power hitter, but in reality he is a line drive, 10-15 HR a year guy. I believe he had his best season in St. Louis because the Cards just left him alone and let him play his game. He might have declined to the point that it no longer matters, but I think in the right situation he might surprise some people.
I don’t about a significant rebound because his last few years have been the same. He might produce for a time with a new team, just because of a change of scenery. His talent is with the glove, which may get him a few looks from a team that is already loaded at the plate, but is looking for a CF/RF who catches everything hit to him.
DonO, I agree with your thoughts about JHey, and how teams have tried to change him. Cardinals handled him properly.
And he’s still a good right fielder.
The last thing the White Sox need to do is give RF to try another washed up veteran, hoping for a dead cat bounce season. It has never worked.
Heyward has had one good season since joining the Cubs, and is less valuable at the plate than the guys they have on roster currently.
Hard pass on this. Keuchel soaking innings is far more valuable.
Could go with a 6 man rotation. Pull him early when he’s having a bad start.
Thank you MLBTR awesome site.
I dunno, I think he’s pretty tradeable. He’s only 34, which isn’t that old for a low velocity command specialist. Yeah, had a terrible season but these things happen, and are followed by fine seasons often. $18m isn’t crazy, and if he pitches well enough to hit 160 innings I don’t see the problem of having him around in 2023 (if nothing else he’d be quite tradeable on a one year deal).
Actually I doubt the White Sox are even considering a trade. They desperately need the innings he gives them, and have enough offense to handle a 4.5 or even 5.0 ERA guy if he can get them 160-170 innings. I mean, he went 9-9 last year despite being hammered.
The problem is that the Sox already need to add 1-2 starters because they lack the pitching depth to get through the season.
As mentioned, their minor league options (Stiever, Lambert) are unproven and not particularly promising. And while a surprising number of Sox fans seem to suddenly have faith in Reylo after a good six weeks or so in 2021, most of those same fans were ready to shoot him into the sun before the season and are conveniently ignoring his terrible numbers at AAA during the first half of the year and his weak September performance. I hope Reylo has figured it out, but he’s not someone I have a ton of confidence in to shore up the starting pitching.
Add to that the fact that Kopech will be on some sort of innings limit. And you know Lynn and/or Giolito and/or Cease will miss some time due to injury/illness/soreness.
They also lack the farm system depth that would allow them to add prospects to a Keuchel trade in order to get a decent replacement pitcher back in return. And they apparently don’t want to spend any more to improve their starting pitching given their existing salary obligations.
Under these circumstances, they can’t afford to trade Keuchel. They need whatever mediocre innings he can provide just to get through the season.
+1
You’re right in your analysis of why he won’t be moved.
I disagree that anyone is suddenly high on Reynaldo Lopez. He’s just another guy in the mix to eat innings with Keuchel & Lambert. It’s just unfortunate they have to pay one 18M.
Crazy that Keuchel has close to the largest AAV in White Sox history at ~$18 million a year.
Dallas will be fine.
He has a few months to develop a new pitch (knuckleball?) and have a comeback year.
He is a good leader in the clubhouse.
I think you might be into something there. I don’t remember ever seeing a lefty knuckleballer, at least since I began paying attention to MLB in the mid 70s.
Wilbur Wood lefty knuckleballer!
Former White Sox!
Wilbur started both games of a Sox doubleheader bs NYY in 1973. Lost both.
Same year he started a suspended game and also started the regularly scheduled game vs Cleveland and won both!
What in the world makes you think he would develop a MLB knuckle ball in a few months? It’s just as likely he’s going to have an ERA over 6.0, this year.
This made me laugh, but boy would I love to see an effective lefty knuckleballer.
Made u laugh??
This guy’s contract is basically immovable at this point. If it were me I’d just stand pat and hope he bounces back. If he figures it out somehow and gives the team 160+ successful innings then next year’s contract is earned. If he comes out flat and gets shelled then make sure he comes nowhere near 160 innings and cut your losses.
The White Sox need to stand pat and hope he rebounds, because at this point, they don’t have a lot of depth in the rotation.
Reynaldo Lopez is not a full-time starter, people. They need to accept that.
It’s not inconceivable that Keuchel could have enough of a bounce back season to serve as a fifth starter. Soft-tossing LHP have often rebounded from poor seasons (see JA Happ and Rich Hill)
They only way they trade him is to take on another awful contract, like a Wil Myers in San Diego, or giving up a prospect. I have more faith that DK will rebound than to make a bad deal to get rid of him.
Dallas for Wil Myers would be a great deal for White Sox
I’m not so sure about that.
Unless the Pads kicked in money,- and they wouldn’t- Myers would add to the payroll about $5 million. And he’s not that good.
Just used him as an example of the type of deal you would have to take to move Keuchel. It would have to come in the form of swapping terrible contracts for players with so-so futures.
Pretty sure the Padres say no to that. #1, Keuchel is due more money if he hits 160 innings than Myers who is a FA at seasons end. #2 Myers was decent in 2021 (113 OPS+) while Keuchel was awful (5.28 RA and 82 ERA+).
I agree with you 100%.No sense jumping from the pan in to the fire
Think he’s pretty much done and won’t hit the 160 mark. There isn’t much risk as if he’s mowing down the opposition and pitching 6 plus innings a start he would be tradable in the off-season. No one would give much in a trade right now other than a salary swap for a position player. Hard to believe the White Sox have the worst farm. Every player they brought up last year performed well. They have quality where needed to cover DL stints and fill the last roster spot or two. Other than trading Keuchel for an overpaid middle infielder Keuchels in the rotation until he bombs.
The Sox have the weakest farm system in baseball and pitching talent is non-existent. As usual, they will rely on the luck of good health for their success.
This is the White Sox demise. Every year they go into camp hoping every player is 100% healthy the whole season, which we know never happens. Then injuries start piling up, then we see guys like Danny Mendick and Nicky Delmonico getting every-day at bats and then they wonder why they can’t win. Their farm system has some lower level prospects but no real major league ready prospects going into 2022. Ever wondered what happen with Alec Hansen? the pitching prospect who led all the minor in strikeouts??? THEY TURNED HIM INTO A RELIEVER!
Then they wonder why they can’t develop pitching….. because honestly they don’t know how.
To be fair, their recent rebuild has almost all of their high-end prospects, playing for the team this season and for the foreseeable future. Guys like Robert, Eloy, Moncada, Cease, Crochet, Vaughn and Sheets. That being said, they have a few players that are in the early stages and will not offer much help this season. This was a very successful rebuild as of late and what will make it a 100% successful rebuild, is a WS or 3 in the next 4-5 years.
Alec Hansen was turned into a reliever because he turned back into a pumpkin once he had to start commanding secondary pitches in AA. The book on him coming out of college was that he had bad mechanical issues and was in his own head too much. He was able to work through them one season throwing to a bunch of 15th-round picks, but got lost against Better talent, got injured, and was never the same.
@roob, the White Sox had a fair share of success last season despite some pretty bad health… They got unexpected contributions from Brian Goodwin, Billy Hamilton, Gavin Sheets, and Jake Burger… even Jimmy Lambert had a nice start at the end of the season… after two straight playoff appearances, success can only be defined by a World Series, and they will need talent in addition to health
speaking of which, it’s hard to figure out some of the “prospect rankings” you’ll find on other white sox websites…on “southside sox,” the readers there are about to vote yoelqui cespedes a far better prospect than yolbert (no relation to yolmer) sanchez!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
here’s how they stack up…they’re both 24 years old:
cespedes is a 5’9″ pipsqueak who has never shown any power, and is listed as an outfielder. in 2021, at birmingham, cespedes slashed .298/.340/.404…the best he’s ever looked. however, right after that, in the arizona fall league, he slashed
.181/.244/.222.
in 2021, at birmingham, sanchez (also on the small side at 5′ 11″) slashed
.343/.369/.469. right after that, in the arizona fall league, he slashed
.400/.533/.514. in doing so, sanchez earned some of the league hitting honors.
moreover, fielding (2nd base) is supposed to be sanchez’s strong suit…”major league ready,” per scouting reports! here’s the final mystifying comparison of the two: cespedes verges on having strikeout disease a la courtney hawkins, jared mitchell, micker adolfo, zack collins…30% of his at-bats at winston-salem and birmingham in 2021. while sanchez is just the opposite…just 14% of his at-bats resulted in strikeouts at the same two stops in 2021.
i can’t stop scratching my head over this obvious mass idiocy!!!!!!! and my head doesn’t itch.
“as all of the advanced metrics thought he deserved much worse”
Sorry guys, I have to post this.
Apparently, ANALytics isn’t as reliable as you guys claim. Valuable, yes, but not 100%. Thank you Darragh for posting that. Thank you Mr. Kluber for pitching better than your numbers indicate.
Just an old school guy taking his usual jabs. You may now call me the usual names.
TWTW (The Will To Win)
In this case the analytics said he was a worse pitcher than traditional numbers posted in 2020. So… in this case the ANALytics worked. Try again.
Dude, no one on the entire planet has ever said analytics, in any industry, is a 100% certainty. All they are is a predictive tool.
There is nothing wrong with being a ‘back of the baseball card’ fan, but folks with an advanced understanding of analytics are probably going to take your money.
Maybe package Dallas keuchel and Craig kimbrel to the padres for eric hosmer and a prospect or 2.
I agree with you 100%.No sense jumping from the pan in to the fire great suggestion
I’m still predicting a Braves/White Sox World Series soon. Do what it takes to set this epic matchup.
You must like the ENT doctor’s wife.
Nostril damus.
Keuchel and Kimbrel for Ozuna and a prospect.
One guy who hits his wife and two who can’t hit the plate.
He didnt hit his wife…..
He choked her with a broken freaking hand.
My man if he choked his wife I’m sure he’s hit her as well. Are you suggesting that Ozuna would only choke but never strike? I can guarantee he’s put his hands on her more than that one time.
Myers and Profar for keuchel
Both teams get what the need by swapping bad contracts.
Myers and Profar add 12 million to White Sox payroll.
Padres would have to throw in prospects for WS to even think of that.
Not a chance. Keuchel was awful (5.28 ERA) while Myers was above average (113 OPs+). Only way the Sox get rid of Keuchel is to take on an equally bad player.
Hosmer maybe, but not Myers.
You sure about that?
Myers was had a bWAR of 0.8. He he well overall, but not great for a RF, and he can’t field.
Keuchel had a bWAR of 0. Not good. But that wouldn’t have even made him the worst starting pitcher last year on the Padres staff. Assuming he can correct his issues, he also has a better fit Petco as a ground ball pitcher in a bigger park.
Myers is also set to make $5 million more than Keuchel.
The Padres have no need for Myers, because CJ Abrams is ready, and they can move their current 2b to Jake C. To RF, which they did at times anyway last season.
Moving Myers frees up a spot for an elite prospect who is ready, and saves money. Getting Keuchel in return actually improves the rotation.
It’s not that far fetched.
Interestingly enough, BTV has Wil Myers and Dallas Keuchel at exactly equal trade value.
I know you like Myers, but players like him are a dime a dozen. Not something you pay $22.5m/yr for.
Dallas Keuchel isn’t worth what he’s being paid either. But he fills a much bigger need in San Diego than Myers does.
Move him to the bullpen. Need a ‘lefty’ option that can mix it up and throw junk to compliment the other two in the pen.
Maybe they can use Kimbrel as an opener since it did not work as a set up man. LOL
The hitch in a potential Keuchel deal is he wasn’t good last year
Well…if they want Evan Longoria, the Giants could probably use a Longo/Dallas Kuechel swap as an excuse to go for Correa♂️.
If he doesn’t want to play 3B, something tells me Crawford could be excellent at 3B, and after a .295/24HR offensive campaign, he surely hit like a third baseman lmao.
Marco Luciano is another 6’2 SS, like Crawford before him, however scouts think Luciano’s MLB position is likely as a corner outfielder or 3B. Correa can be the SS while Crawford plays 3B until Luciano’s ready to come aboard and contribute. Until then, SF would likely have the best defensive left side of the infield in baseball, and with Estrada/Belt on the right side, likely a top 5 defensive infield altogether.
Correa and Seiya Suzuki would give SF two right handed 27yo’s to replace Posey/Bryant, and the DH replacing Longo’s production with Darin Ruf and LaMonte Wade, ensuring that even if Casali plays catcher for 162 games and hits .225, he’d be an upgrade over our 9th hitter last season(pitchers).
I get that the DH replaces the pitcher’s spot, however if you view it as just replacing offensive production, the position doesn’t matter. Ruf and Wade should be as good a DH platoon as any, and Seiya Suzuki’s NPL stats are ridiculous, but he projects as a .275/.350/.470 type of hitter in MLB, which is similar to the RotY’s slash line. At 27, and with multiple Gold Glove equivalents for RF in Japan, Seiya Suzuki has a solid chance to at least replace Kris Bryant’s 2021 production at just over 3 years younger, and likely for a 1/3 of the money, as KB is projected anywhere from 5yr/$90m, 6yr/$144, and even 8yr/$200m(lol), whereas Suzuki is projected to earn a 4yr/$44m, 5yr/$50m, or 5yr/$60m, really could land anywhere in that $10m-$13m per season for 4-6 years.
If Conforto was a RHB, I’d probably go for him, I wanted Marte before he signed with NYM, but I get SF being cautious about offering a 4th year like NYM did. SF can platoon Yaz/Slater in CF or LF, and while I’m all for Steven Duggar’s defense, perhaps someone like Jonathan Villar can add some infield depth(and finally give Kapler a switch hitter)?
Villar has some speed and a ton of defensive versatility. If he’s still got wheels, I’d prefer a Yaz/Slater platoon in LF>CF, and Villar Duggar can platoon in CF. If Villar’s bat is something Kapler wants in the everyday lineup, then surely he can play 2B vs. RHP’s, which would usually mean La Stella at 2B, but La Stella is coming off an injured Achilles so might start the season on the IL.
Villar would be great, but basically because he’s the player the Giants have failed to turn Mauricio Dubon into, who’s out of minor league options. Trading Dubon and La Stella surely opens things up for Villar and Thairo Estrada, but ofc it depends on how the organization feels about Thairo Estrada. I thought he looked really good, and he could be a relatively cheap option at 2B for a long time, with versatility to fill in all around the infield.
So, trade Longo for really any SP that struggled last year who is in the final year of a somewhat hefty contract so no prospects other than AAA/MLB(AAAA) guys(like Slater/Dubon/Duggar, guys too good for Triple-A, not good enough for the Majors yet but out of minor league options),
sign Villar, Correa, and Seiya Suzuki.
Maybe trade La Stella(if Villar is signed. La Stella might be a better hitter, but Villar is younger and more versatile. I get Farhan/Kapler saw the value in left handed hitting utility infielders, as they’re not super common, but this IS a team that has a LOT of lefty bats, and ZERO switch hitters. Villar could be a nice first step in adding another everyday player, even if one day he’s in the outfield, the next he’s at 2B, then one week a months he spends a day giving each infielder/outfielder a day off, etc.
Just super utility man to the rescue.
Now…ima go check Villar’s platoon splits and probably be disappointed, but hopefully he’s a viable option because it seems like such a Giants thing to do to have over $120m to replace Posey, Cueto, Gausman, and Kris Bryant, yet they do it with Jonathan Villar, Tyler Beede, Alex Cobb, and Seiya Suzuki and hit the next two FA’s looking for Ohtani, Bellinger, Devers, Judge and Boegarts.
Ok, done.
Come up for air and use paragraphs!
Can’t you see, he’s writing a book. Give him a break.
War and Peace
Longoria’s contract is almost over and he’s a league average 3B. The Giants don’t really need to get out from his contract anymore. They do have Mauricio Dubon, though, who is out of options and now redundant to Estrada. If the White Sox ate enough money on Keuchel’s remaining salary, I can see a swap, and Dubon would be a nice pickup to play some 2B/OF.
You absolutely don’t want Keuchel. Let Houston and Chisox fans argue about which team takes him.
What would the Sox want with a worse 3B than they have now?
TL;DR
I like Kopech but assuming he can have a 150+ inning season after only 69 inning total for 2020 and 2021 may be very wishful thinking for a competitive team.
There goes mlbtr chat with Dallas keuchel.
I miss Keuchel in Houston. The Beard was a hero here. Sad to see him declining but I guess time is still undefeated.
How could any grievance be valid if his results look anything like last years? You can’t have a 4.5+ era and have any credibility when it comes to complaining about not getting enough innings.
A starting pitcher has a season where his era is under 2.00 and you bring up his techno stats… come on. The guy had an amazing season. The average clown in the stands knew he would regress. Quit trying to impress us with your hindsight predictions. If you want to impress us, find an obscure player who has these great techno stats and predict they will have a great season. That would be worth reading about.
Who predicted Cedric Mullins having a great season?
Who predicted Salvador perez to have a monster year?
LOL
Just be upfront with the man like a professional to a professional.
He doesn’t have a future there. He should be the spot starter/mid relief swing man type of player.
He isn’t a #2 or #3 anymore.
Trade him to the Rockies. He will beg to be pulled early.
There could be a deal to be made with Atlanta. Kimbrel for Ozuna?
What would the Sox do with Ozuna? They don’t need or want him.
Keuchel won’t get anything in a trade, obviously. If they have to give away prospects to trade him, what’s the point. Their best bet is to keep him and hope he rebounds, which is very possible. Guys have bad years and rebound. He is about to turn 34 and is not a power pitcher, if he gets his command back he might be half way decent. Probably not like he was in 2020 (5th in Cy voting, incredibly), but maybe half way between 2020 and the disaster he was in 2021. That would be decent enough for a 5th starter, and is probably way better than what they are likely to get from Lopez. Lopez got hammered in September and seems to lack the mental makeup to be a successful major league starter. At least I just don’t see it happening, I think he would implode if he got enough innings. I don’t think Keuchel’s career is over and that he will never be effective again, we’ll see.
This is a very easy fix. Send him to the bullpen. He won’t touch 100 innings let alone 160. Plus starters seem to find a new life in the pen when their arm isn’t starter level anymore. He is going to want another contract next year and if he can succeed in the bullpen he could still get decent dollars like many other former starters have done. He would be a good longman with his slower speed and pitching to contact. If he doesn’t succeed in high leverage situations. It’s the only way he stays in MLB for 3-4 more years.
Not a bad suggestion, but $18 million for an innings eating, bullpen long guy? That’s a surrender to a bad contract right and might affect both a cheaper option and effective other bullpen option, or the WS having to sign a starter to take his place.
It’s definitely a big figure to pay a reliever, but they are on the hook for that money either way. Might as well find a passable role for him.
I don’t see the Sox getting anyone’s decent prospects for Keuchel, nor do I see them parting with their own prospects to deal him. However, there could definitely be an opportunity to move him for someone else’s big contracts.
– If the Sox kicked in money, would Tampa take a flyer on Keuchel to move Kiermaier’s contract? KK might have value to Chicago.
– Keuchel to Atlanta for Ozuna? I can’t imagine ATL wants to keep Marcell around and a fresh start seems necessary. Absorbing one year of Dallas’ contract to get out from under Ozuna might be attractive.
– The Mets maybe, in a deal based around McNeil or Smith?
– Keuchel to Reds for the rest of Moustakas’s deal? Moustakas might fit at 2B, 3B, DH for ChiSox.
– This one might be tricky, but Keuchel across town to the Cubs for Jason Heyward? LH bat and good defense.
– To Padres in a Hosmer deal? SD seems interested in moving that contract.
I’m sure there are other big and/or bad contracts out there that could be targets for a Keuchel deal.
The Red Sox would take him he was accompanied by a good enough prospect. The problem the White Sox have is most of their good prospects are already in Chicago.
Keuchel doesn’t fit the RS. Ideally, you would need a team that has no one at their #5 slot, or maybe a team a near-certain need for a #6.
The White Sox have zero depth at any level. They will have injuries. Even a bad Dallas Keuchel will be needed. Trading sell low guys will result in trading one problem for another problem.
I couldn’t stand the way LaRussa used Kopech last year
How about to the Padres in a trade for Hosmer? Padres kick in $10 million to cover half of Hosmer’s 2022 salary. Another $10 million if 2023 doesn’t vest for Keuchel.
There is no fit there. The WS have Abreu at 1st, and either Eloy or Vaughn at DH. To move Hosmer, you need a trade partner with no 1B.
It’s one thing to gamble on Hosmer returning to better days. It’s another thing to make the gamble, and still have nowhere to play him, even if he returns.
Abreu is a FA at years end and better suited to DH. As of today Sheets is penciled in at DH with Vaughn coming off the bench to play 1B and LF. Jimenez will start in LF if healthy. It also gives the Sox some financial flexibility to go after a starter to fill the void left by the innings Rodon and Keuchel ate in 2021 that Kopech will not be able to throw in 2022.
The White Sox plan to use a 6 man rotation on opening day at least, per Hahn and Williams as of November
Why would you expect anyone on this website listen to have Hahn’s plans with the White Sox using a six man rotation of Lynn, Giolitio, Cease, Keuchel, Kopech and Lopez? The White Sox’s main objective for 2022 is having a healthy line up after not having that core playing together all year (Moncada, Jiminez, and Robert). Excluding myself there are some White Sox fans are still mad at the Madigral move but the guy couldn’t stay healthy and hurt himself twice running the bases (separated his shoulder in 2020 with trying to slide into third while beating out a throw and tore his hamstring beating out a throw to first base in 2021). These White Sox fans are going to get upset when the White Sox move on from Anderson and his antics by trading him possibly to the Yankees and Phillies in move involving Kimbrel.
If FZ even just mentions in Dallas Keuchel’s name a conversation, Keuchel will win 25 games in 2022.
Reynaldo Lopez is a better option than Kuechel – I would think the best move is limiting Kuechel’s innings by having him as a “6th starter” and long relief… that avoids the vesting option and keeps depth across the rotation.
Also don’t be shocked if the Sox go up to 190M in payroll for a run at a ring…
Cubs send Happ & Mills in return for Kuechel and Sheets