The Red Sox announced Wednesday that they’ve signed veteran starter Rich Hill to a one-year contract. It’s reportedly a $5MM guarantee that contains up to $3MM more in incentives based on innings pitched. Hill is a client of ACES.
This is remarkably the seventh different contract Hill has signed with the Red Sox. Between various stints, he’s suited up for the Sox in parts of four seasons. After pitching for Boston from 2010-12, Hill returned for a late-season cameo in 2015. That four-start stretch kicked off the remarkable late-career renaissance he has put together over the past six years.
Hill’s showing with the Red Sox earned him a rotation job in Oakland the following season. After continuing to thrive with the A’s, he landed with the Dodgers at the 2016 trade deadline. Hill re-signed with L.A. that winter, ultimately spending the next three seasons in Dodger blue. He has bounced between the Twins, Rays and Mets over the past two years.
Things will come full circle as Hill returns to Boston for his age-42 campaign. It’ll be his 18th year logging at least some major league action, a testament to his incredible longevity and persistence. Of course, that he keeps landing big league opportunities is just as much a reflection of his continued productivity.
Hill hasn’t posted an ERA above 4.00 since his 2016 breakout. This past season’s 3.86 mark was his highest in that time, but Hill also shouldered his heaviest workload in fourteen years. Between Tampa Bay and New York, the southpaw tallied 158 2/3 frames over 32 appearances (31 starts), a top 50 total league-wide. He did so with roughly average strikeout and walk numbers (22.7% and 8.3%, respectively).
Boston has now added three potential rotation arms on one-year guarantees this winter. The Sox signed Michael Wacha for $7MM and are reportedly in agreement with James Paxton on a $10MM guarantee that contains a 2023-24 club option. They join an incumbent group led by Chris Sale, Nathan Eovaldi and Nick Pivetta. Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock could be options for either the rotation or the bullpen as well, giving the front office and manager Alex Cora plenty of moving pieces with which to construct a staff.
Alex Speier of the Boston Globe first reported the Red Sox and Hill were in agreement on a one-year deal. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported the $5MM guarantee and possible incentives.
This dude is still pitching?
Vagisil. Any one of them will give you another two to three inches drop on your curve ball.
You put snot on the ball?
Finally a move I like. Limit his innings but when healthy he can still pitch.
Vagisil is supposed to make you poor and stupid not Rich ball player giving you a few more inches.
Vagisil also eliminates the irritating itch and rash on your fingers from pitching.
If he stops now he’ll have to pay for his own healthcare. Just a few more years and Medicare will kick in!
Hahaha
Hopefully Medicare still exists by then.
He signed as a drafter in 2002.
Shiver me timbers. Ahahahaha!
Good signing ! He had a great year in 2015 with them. Hopefully he can recreate that magic.
….and Dizzy Dean had a great year in 1936.
Yea but Rich Hill pitched better than Dizzy Dean in 2021.
He should have. He signed his first contract before Dizzy was signed.
I like Hill as a person, and his attitude. Always like his time in Boston.
BUT.
There are some red flags to consider, and it makes me say he is the best of the wacha/paxton/hill trifecta as ‘OK’ but not necessarily “good” with the rest of the team as it sits.
His 3.86 ERA and not crossing the 4.xx threshold is misleading. His FIP was in the mid 4.xx last season (4.55 with TB.) His numbers reflects strong defense behind him, something Boston sorely lacks, making him appear stronger than he really is.
Add the age, and the injury pedigree… well, it’s a pretty mixed bag. So, while it’s the best move bloom has made, I don’t think it earns high marks overall. The 2022 rotation will depend more upon luck than player skill, and the bullpen remains shot as does the defense.
After the red sox defense penalty inflation, I’d expect a mid 5s era from him, unless something drastic shakes up the left side of the infield.
He’s one of an ever expanding collection of #5s on a team that needs some #3 calibers.
I’d expect a mid 5s era from him,
=============================
I’d make a friendly wager his ERA is under 5.00.
not at bad deal look at wanio last year @ 40 and both are similar type of pitchers, there not getting you out on there ability but there smarts and willingness to put the ball in play. imo i think a lot of us get caught up in k’s and advanced metrics and we forget that if you can locate and trust your d you can be just as effective. a weak fly or grounder is just as good as a k.
The only way I see his era below 5 is if one of 4 things happens:
1) he isn’t used only as a SP as the signing is presented. I’m operating under the presumption he is used as a traditional SP, not an opener, not a reliever. Used as what he is signed as.
2) he gets hurt before making a reasonable number of appearances and had only faced a small number of very weak teams first. My prediction is based on playing a normal season at the mlb level.
3) similar to number one, he only faces the absolute worst teams in the league for some reason. I’d expect he faces the normal distribution of strong and weak teams like everyone else.
4) the defense in boston sees upgrades. The rest of that quote snippet you made includes the penalty red sox defense inflation of era that has occurred to other SP the last couple seasons.
But if he goes out every 5th day, as a regular SP – normal opponents, 3x through lineups, etc etc etc, and the defensive alignment of 2022 matches what is in place now from last year… I’d stand by him likely being over 5, and no way replicating a 3.xx that’s being touted all over.
Wainwright is better without a doubt but it’s not a bad comparison. The comparison I like is this contract vs Mad Max. Who starts more games in 2022 Hill or Scherzer? Hope Max wins a Cy Young. However kinda believe the dead arm during the playoffs when they needed him is a red flag. Or at least a sign of things to come. Ever the best work horse ages and breaks down eventually. The contract given out by the Mets was foolish.
His highest ERA in the last 8 years is 3.86, and his total ERA over that 8 years is 3.16, with a FIP of 3.67. Anything can happen, but your expectations are pretty far afield.
They’ve basically replaced Richards and Perez with Wacha and Hill and added a 10 million dollar wildcard with Paxton.
I can’t say it’s a huge upgrade but nobody can say they aren’t spending money on pitching. Good money remains to be seen.
Yewed – they’re also replacing erod somewhere in there…
That’s what Sale is for
GASoxFan-You’re right, forgot about Rodriguez.. Still early but so far I’m questioning if this is it. Paxton at that price puzzles me. After next season they basically have almost nothing in contracts if X opts out. Which I think he will. Less if Sale opts out which I don’t think will happen.
Why do people keep acting like FIP measures how good a pitcher is? It measures only what happens on balls not hit in play. Every team has a defense capable of catching most infield flies or soft grounders, but if you judge a pitcher by FIP none of those count as outs and the only thing that matters is how good he is at striking guys out compared to home runs and walks. A double play ball is objectively better than a strikeout, but doesn’t help FIP at all.
There is no single stat in the sports world which will tell a whole story.
IRT specifically FIP, I think OPSa is a better indicator of future success.
Good luck with that.
150 strikeouts in 150 innings last year..not bad for an old man!
People will mock the signing but the dudes been solid every year since 2014
Let’s go, Dick Mountain!
Welcome to the IL. Love the guy when he pitches a third of the time, but still…
Started 31 games last year.
Yes, you are right, but it was the one year where he pitched that much.
Sale, Paxton, and Hill. Those three are usually good when they are healthy, but will any of the three reach 100 IP in 2022? History suggests Boston shouldn’t pin too many hopes on the trio… but I like the signing as I’m a Hill fan and he has had some success with the Red Sox. He has had a nice career, and he was excellent in ’21.
The thing is, with all these added depth pieces you don’t need everyone to throw 250 or even 200 innings. They’re adding interesting arms that could contribute 150 innings or so each.
“will any of the three reach 100 IP in 2022” “History . . ” Sale and Hill should. What history says they wont? Paxton is coming back from TJ surgery, and won’t. Where do these comments come from.
As long as his blisters can hold off until Paxton is ready
(Ben Lindbergh has entered the chat)
Threw 158 innings last year to a 3.86 ERA. Very good signing
He’ll give you innings…
Dude gives you innings. That’s a lot more than a ton of these young guys clubs are throwing out there. To have that longevity in the game, Total respect for Hill.
@bravesnation nc i agree with your point guys 4&5 are just as important as 1-3, the btm guys of a rotation are there to preserve your tor guys. second these guys are important because of experience and they can take the load off the young guys, why burn out your future pieces because there cheap and guys you can build around, when you can get a savvy vet that knows the role he is singing up for and can share knowledge and wisdom to the young arms.
He looks like the uncle no one trusts haha
I don’t like you.
AKA the cool uncle. There’s a reason he got arrested at one of Brady’s final games as a Pat
He’s the Nightman
Nightman Cometh to Boston.
as long as he pay the troll toll to get that boys soul.
Welcome home Rich.
What Bloom has done here is rather genius if it works out: Hill for the first half and Paxton for the second half. If somehow Hill is still pitching well than bonus!
I wanted Hill last year for the same reason. I figured 4 months of Hill plus two months of Sale creates a pretty solid full year pitcher.
Totally agree now I understand the Paxton signing more. This crazy just might work.
He has the stink of LA still on him. That doesn’t wash out.
What?
He’s a pitcher not some Hollywood Hooker
Why?
SP with beaucoup injury risk must be the new ” it” thing in Boston.
the new Minnie Minoso AKA Rich Hill
The hometown ‘kid’ is finally coming back home! Hopefully he can stay healthy a give them 140+ Innings pitches this year. If not, maybe the plan is to pitch Rich Hill to start the season and by the time he gets hurt, James Paxton will be back. Chaim keeps signing former Rays (Wacha, Hill). I wonder why that is?
Probably because he knows these players well and, has great confidence in them.
Bloom’s Rays tenure has zero overlap with Hill and Wacha. It’s more likely he and his former coworkers look for certain attributes in players and have similar methodology
We’re back baby!!!! Bloom comes up with another Dumpster Dive and picked up a 42,year old pitcher. What an off season so far Wacha who should have retired two years ago, Paxton who is recovering from TJ Surgery and now 42 year old Hill. What is going on here?
Notice you only want to mention Hill’s age. You missed his numbers from ’20, that he pitched 158 innings with a 3.86 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Thought I’d help you out.
Denny. Thought I’d help you out too. That 3.86 is misleading and was a product of strong defense behind him.
You know what hill’s FIP was in TB? 4.55. Not 3.86.
You know what the defense bloom has in place does to pitchers ERA? Boosts it a good point, point and a half above FIP.
So you’re looking at the smoke and mirrors 3.86, when reality is a mid 4s, and in fenway likely a mid 5s.
His ERA/FIP was 3.84/4.02 wit the Mets. He finished the season with a 3.38/3.55 in the last two months. You’re trying too hard to find a reason not to like him.
Everything depends on the cost, but assuming we didn’t pay a lot, there are no negatives on this one.
Thanks for you help GA, but let me help you understand how FIP and team defense works. You don’t seem to understand that defense is a whole team concept. The Shortstop and 3rd Baseman don’t do all the fielding. So in reality, not just your opinion, the Red Sox were more middle of the pack, 18th out of 30 teams in defense runs saved.
Let me simplify further, so you can understand.
Tampa Bay Team ERA 3.67, FIP 3.87
Boston Team ERA 4.26, FIP 3.95
Rays did have a better defense. But NO WAY is that a two runs difference. So, I’ll chalk youre “mid 5s” opinion to not understanding how FIP works, or maybe how the Red Sox had more good defenders (C, 2B, LF, RF), than you want to give them credit for.
@joe- let’s delve deeper then.
He threw 63.1 IP to a 3.84era/4.02 FIP with the NYM. He averaged less than 5 IP both after the trade overall, and during the 2 months you mention – including 2 appearances of 3 and 3.2 innings in those 2 months.
He threw 95.1 IP to a 3.87era/4.55 FIP with the TBR. He averaged barely, BARELY 5 IP, to the tune of 5.017IP where 5.33 would be 5 1/3.
While with NY he faced:
TOR 1x; CIN 1x; MIA 3x; WAS 3x; SF 1x; LAD 1x; STL 1x; PHI 1x; MIL 1x;
While with TBR he faced:
MIA 1x; NYY 3x* (early in the year when NY could hit its way out of a wet paper bag if you watched the games); TEX 2x;
KC 2x; OAK 2x; BAL 2x; SEA 1x; BOS 1x; WAS 1x; CLE 1x; TOR 1x; ATL 1x
It’s not about trying too hard not to like him. It’s a case of realistic expectations. He’s a back end rotation piece, of advanced age, and questionable health.
He’s better than wacha and paxton combined, but the rotation moves made this winter aren’t what was really needed. Hopefully something is done about the poor defense and bullpen state of affairs or it will be a rough year.
Denny – it is you who don’t understand FIP if you’re falling back on team statistics.. what you neglect again in your over simplistic views of FIP are that different pitching styles benefit more, or less, from specific positions on the diamond over or under performing.
A groundball pitcher suffers more from a porous infield. How else do you account for erod having a 4.74era but a 3.32 FIP? That doesn’t match your narrative of Boston being a 4.26/3.95 split. Individual players suffer different penalties.
Likewise, in TB, Hill posted a 3.87era against a 4.55 FIP. That doesn’t match your 3.67/3.87 splits.
For FIP to be useful you need to look at how the various errors impacted a specific player, based on how often a specific position player was involved each at bat. That’s why each player on a team received an individual FIP.
Erod was a 43% ground ball rate and hill was a 37% ground ball rate (100% figures of both include K and BB)
So yes. If Hill benefitted by .68 due to the TB defense, amd erod was penalized by 1.44, those numbers easily combine to a discrepancy above 2era difference at 2.12…
Increasing hill’s 3.87 by 2.12 would actually give a 5.99era adjusted, so by saying a mid 5s era that easily covers the 6% difference in GB rate between the two.
You need to learn more and spout off less.
And I spent too long fixing punctuation and auto correct errors that I deleted a piece, it should read ‘various errors and sub-par defense impacted a specific player” but part got deleted.
I hate pecking out on a smartphone sometimes.
dennyd – Mr Knowitall. Get your head out of the meaningless and completely inaccurate world of FIP. They are bs numbers not facts. The assumptions normalize things incorrectly.
Can you attribute the FIP variance from bad defense versus bad planning by the shift guru of your team? If you count the errors you can see the actual impact of the number of balls hit in play that should have been fielded by your team mates but did the player run an extra 20 feet because the shift was bad and did that cause the error? The answer should be it doesn’t matter. Each at bat is a unique experience and the binary outcome is of the utmost importance not the range of the player, the inaccuracy of the alignment nor the conditions of the field or the weather. The binary result of an error or no error determines the ERA and FIP is a WAG. That’s an old school acronym for Wild Ass Guess.
KD17 — I didn’t bring up FIP, GASoxFan did. So shut the f up. Read for 30secs before you comment.
GA === Did you do any research before you commented. Hill has .54 GB/FB rate, last year. He’s not some groundball pitcher. At least not any more. Wow, you found an angle and ran with it with it, without checking his GB rate.
In the National League there is no designated hitter so that is going to add to his ERA my friend.
Just out of curiosity, over the past two years, how many RS acquisitions have you liked?
We have money pick up a good solid pitcher not dumpster signings in an injured pitcher Paxton, a flop in Wacha, and a senior citizen. Non of these guys are better or equal to EROD
Al, you cracked me up!
Feel good story. Rich is a class act and surely knows how to pitch. And, he’s a Massachusetts native coming home. I’m very happy for him, his family and, Red Sox Nation! Great signing!
Seasonal platoon with James Paxton. Both give you half a season of a decent lefty SP.
Exactly what I was thinking! First half Hill; and about the time he gets injured… Paxton will come off the IL.
Still gonna need another couple of signings, really thought Stroman could be an option, but that may be a little pricey for Mr. Bloom…. Hope there’s some scraps left after the lock out
League worst infield in run prevention, groundball pitchers don’t mesh well with the current Sox defense
How did the Mets ever let him go? What are they doing this winter anyway?
Well, I like this more than the Wacha signing at the very least. Now go trade for Manaea and sign at least one good reliever.
That’s pretty expensive for an assistant pitching coach
Is Jamie Moyer next?
Let’s get him his retirement tour here! Not saying I want Hill to hang up the cleats but if there was ever a team for him to do it on it’s this one. Also, amazing image choice AF!
Seems pricey for an assistant pitching coach
Would rather the Cubs signed him than the headcase/diva Stroman.
woah, woah woah…park the car
I wonder if Julian Tavares is still around, he might be a cost effective pick up for Bloom.
Lol, that guy was a headhunter
should just roll with Houck in the rotation over the likes of Wacha and Paxton.
I’m 43, in my lifetime I’d like to catch a game at Fenway Park.
It’s a great time but be prepared to be uncomfortable if you are a tall person. Incredibly tiny seats for 6”4
now I want McHugh…and Brad miller
“Boston has now added three potential rotation arms on one-year guarantees this winter.”
It’s my understanding that Paxton won’t be available for most of the season, if at all before 2023.
TJ typically carries a 14 month recovery timeline. Some earlier, some later, everyone is different. It is my understanding he had surgery in April, so that would put him on track to return in June, which is nearly halfway thru the season.
Rotation is actually looking okay and more balanced now that they’ve added two lefties.
Sale – LHP
Eovaldi – RHP
Pivetta – RHP
Houck/Whitlock/Paxton/Hill – R,R,L,L
Paxton and Hill can provide the same upside as ERod, albeit with more risk. I would even argue Paxton has higher upside and is less expensive, but again, more risk.
I also think just about every one of those contracts can be pushed to the bullpen too if necessary. I doubt you’ll see all 7 healthy at the same time over the course of the season. In fact, if Hill gets hurt before Paxton returns the Sox would still need another lefty to take up innings… Perez on a $2mil deal would be okay with me.
Winnah winnah chicken dinnah
t04 says:
to4
20 hours ago
This why the Jays will never win a WS. How can they pay Gausman the same amount or even slightly more rather than offering this to Ray who became a Cy winner with us !!!!
I really hope Gausman turns out the way that they live for the rest of their live’s regretting it. What a hunch of idiots !
7
REPLYFLAGMUTE
Beat that, Metsfan22.
DICK MOUNTAIN
Someone give jaime moyer a call.
I would have kept Rodriguez. Hill will help, I enjoy watching him pitch, but the Sox need a sure thing in the rotation. Bad defence and mediocre pitching is trouble.
I heard Dick Mountains wife is a Patriots Fan?
150+ innings, 2nd most in career; be $5M
Paxton, hurt again, not available till mid season (hopefully)= gets $8-10M ??
Am I missing something here?
The dudes e.r.a over 4, once since 2009.
Mets lost out… I feel he’s going to be a great pickup this year.
Do you think Babe Ruth might crawl out of the grave to pitch for the Red Sox for $5 million in 2022? Naught!
Rich Hill is a playoff weapon. My guess is that he will be used for a while then go on the DL with a mystery illness, then reappear in September. He is dialed in for the postseason.
Glad Rich Hill got a new contract. What about Wealthy Mountain? Hahaha. We have fun here on MLBTR.