Serving as one of the last free agent rumors of the night before yesterday’s lockout officially commenced, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported that the Padres were “showing strong interest” in free agent Nick Castellanos. An important disclaimer here is that teams are prohibited from contacting players or making any transactions during the duration of this lockout. Ultimately, it remains to be seen how strongly yesterday’s reported interest in Castellanos will persist when the transaction freeze is over. Nonetheless, this is a notable piece of insight into how San Diego may operate when they’re free to bolster their roster again.
The 29-year-old Castellanos should appeal to the Padres and a number of teams for one simple reason: he’s a very good hitter. In 138 games this past season the right fielder posted personal best offensive numbers en route to a .309/.362/.576 slash line (136 OPS+) with 34 home runs. Statcast metrics largely support the output, by virtue of how frequently Castellanos makes hard contact.
One knock on Castellanos over the years is that he’s been something of a free-swinger, waving and missing at balls outside the strike zone. Statcast numbers showed more of the same in that regard during 2021. Castellanos was able to mitigate concerns about being too much of a free-swinger in one notable respect, however, since he cut down his strikeout rate to a better-than-most 20.7%. The ability to be aggressive early in the count but avoid strikeouts is an asset that will likely give teams more confidence in the player than they had in him after a replacement-level 2020 showing.
The other well-documented knock against Castellanos has been his subpar defensive ratings over the years. Despite possessing above average speed, the outfielder continued the trend of uninspiring outfield play in 2021. Any NL team looking to add Castellanos’s bat to a lineup knows they’ll be taking a bit of a hit when he takes his glove out into the field.
Those documented shortcomings, as well as the obvious offensive upside, actually lend some traction to a Padres pursuit. San Diego is a team that clearly values contact skills— they were the 5th best team in baseball at avoiding strikeouts last season. As for the defensive side of things, San Diego (and several other NL teams) may be of the mindset that when the lockout subsides the DH will exist for all 30 teams. Stowing MLBTR’s 10th-ranked free agent at a DH spot, with occasional outfield reps, seems a perfectly reasonable move then for a team whose offense proved surprisingly middling last season. Even without the DH, it’s possible some outfield shuffling can take place to accommodate Castellanos now that incumbent left fielder Tommy Pham is a free agent.
Well the Padres better be thoughtful here and really considering all the options here. Because spending big bucks is not the answer
You can’t buy a World Series with hired guns, it does not work
The 2009 Yankees say hi. They missed the postseason in ‘08 for the first time since ‘93. They then went out and signed Teixiera, Sabathia, and Burnett to add to their all ready purchased roster.
Well Matsui says Hi, he was the real reason they won
Matsui owned Pedro Martinez and that is that
Here’s the funny thing about that World Series. Homefield was determined by the AL winning the All Star game. Matsui could not even play the NL games without a DH. Matsui dominated the games he played becoming the rightful WS MVP. If the NL wins the All Star game, it’s possible the Yanks don’t win that series.
@Von Interesting- even in the regular season he was strictly a DH, not a single inning in LF.
Or if the Phillies started JA Happ
I emailed Mike Missenelli telling him the Phillies should start Happ
He wasn’t buying it, not enough experience. Maybe I should have called lol. I was right though, Matsui owned Martinez that series
A good portion of their roster was still home grown or they signed internationally. Derek Jeter, Robinson Cano, Hideki Matsui, Jorge Posada, Phil Hughes, Mariano Rivera, Joba Chamberlin, Melky Cabrera, Brett Gardner, Alfredo Aceves, and (technically) Andy Pettitte all played a significant amount of time with the Yankees in 2009. A-Rod, Tex, Sabathia, Burnett, Damon, and Swisher were all pieces they technically ‘bought’, but the whole “build from within, supplement from from the outside” has only grown more true as farm systems have become much more advanced.
Look at the Dodgers. They’ve made 3 of the last 5 World Seires, winning one of them (granted 60 game season), but most of their best pieces in these World Series runs are developed from within. Biggest reason their payroll is high is because they retain many of them. The Atlanta Braves’ entire infield, as well as their best outfielder, and a handful of their pitchers were homegrown. Among the Astros’ 6 pitchers with at least 20 starts, 4 were raised through their farmsystem. Among their batters with at least 500 plate appearances, 5 of the 6 were once prospects in the Astros’ minor league system.
Yes. The 2009 Yankees were well “supplemented”.
Swanson was not “homegrown” — I call your bluff
I guess homegrown*. They still acquired him when he was a prospect. The Braves didn’t spend big money to get him.
The 2009 Yankees are still the only team in baseball history to sign a handful of free agents to big contracts and win the following year. It simply doesn’t work.
The Yankees? 2009? Was that the last time they were relevant?
If they are still making articles about big name players teams are interested in, I read something new today. The world champions have “checked in” on Carlos Correa. I was surprised I couldn’t find an article about that here since he is the top player on the market. I think the idea was that they would move their third baseman to first and their shortstop to third. Has anyone else heard this about the Braves “checking in” on Carlos Correa? Trade rumor news is going to be slow now so I thought they would post it since they posted this Castellanos thing.
It doesn’t always work, but sometimes it does. I see someone already mentioned the Yankees, and I would offer the Dodgers as at least debatable. I know some of the players were homegrown players, but we can’t exactly say a team that spends the most money on it’s roster isn’t buying a world series now can we.
If they have the resources to acquire a player and improve the team then why not? Why single out one team when they all sign FAs, makes trades, etc…
Because it blew up on them
Signing Hosmer, Machado, others did not work. It disintegrated
Anyway, time will tell who is right
Really?? You think the Machado signing was bad? You put him in the same group as Hosmer? Wild.
Machado signing doesn’t look bad now. It might in the last 2-3 years though. Methinks that’s why teams adamantly refused to go to 10 years on him when he was a FA.
They’re happy with Machado. Looking at the market now his contact appears to be fitting for 5.0 WAR
Matsui was ‘bought’ too. But regardless, yeah of course good organizations build from within and then supplement with big time free agents when they’re close. Gotta give it to the Tigers, M’s and Rangers putting their money where their mouths are trying to go for it now.
Same with Tatis, he is cheap being a 5 tool player
No serious padre fan is regretting the manny contract one bit.
1997 Marlins
It can work where you pay for the best roster but not always. Doesn’t seem the most probable. When you build rosters and grow team chemistry, that seems to be the better option. You don’t get the same with free agents- chemistry can be inconsistent. It’s easier to play with guys you’ve known year to year.
And all this time they’ve been signing baseball players when they should be recruiting scientists
If I was the Padres, I’ll bring back sign Rosario to play LF, Soler to DH and Rizzo to play 1B and trade and Hosmer away !
1.Croneworth 2B
2.Tatis Jr. SS
3.Rizzo 1B
4.Machado 3B
5.Rosario LF
6.Soler DH-RF
7.Grisham CF
8.Nola C
9.Myers RF/Hosmer DH in the event they decide to keep Hosmer as well !
Much better than what they have now and they wouldn’t be breaking the bank !
That’s a pretty solid team, even with Hos
Well they should have added Scherzer, Ray and Seager too, while we are playing fantasy baseball where the money doesn’t seem to matter and Luxury Tax isn’t a real thing.
Who cant contact players? Can a manager go eat lunch with a player even if the FO doesn’t instruct him to? Can a player arrange lunch with a manager? It says that teams cannot contact players not the other way or teams cannot *come in* contact with players. Thoughts?
The Player can’t talk to the Manager or Coaches
A player under contract of a team cannot yes but a free agent doesn’t have a coach or manager
My sources hear they plan to start him at second base
He is also planning to be their opening day starter
They will reacquire Adam Frazier to get the opening day start
For more prospects and preller will whine
LOL. I see what you did there.
Terrible fit, needs. Hitter friendly park
Interesting point. He’s only played in terrific offensive parks thus far, so perhaps he’s overrated. If only there was a stat for this. Oh wait, his park-adjusted metrics are still good.
It’s completely wrong that he’s only played in terrific offensive parks. More than half his career, 5 full seasons plus, was in Detroit. Baseball Savant gives Comerica a rating of 98. In his last 3 seasons there he had an OPS+ of 120. Wrigley also has a 98 rating, and he absolutely raked there..
I know you’re being sarcastic but he hit pretty well in Detroit and it certainly favors pitchers
Yeah he’s a well established hitter wherever he goes… comerica, wrigley, great American… doesn’t matter, he’s just a very good hitter who tends to be underrated
Did he ever play for the Rangers though?
No one cares. We are planning a boycott of all things MLB. Delete the MLBTR app ASAP.
We?
Maybe he meant Wes, presuming he is Wes in St. Louis?
maybe if the season doesn’t start on time. maybe. haven’t watched a single NFL game since my Chargers left town.
How about the Giants for Castellanos?
No, Castellanos bat would suffer at their park, so he would not be a good choice for them. They need gap hitters.
Petco HR rate is middle of league, it’s not the pitchers park that it once was.
Castellanos is a gap hitter though
Datashark:
He has a wRC+ of 136. That’s a park-adjusted stat. That means he would be an asset with the bat for every team. Now whether his glove plays in a park like Oracle is another thing.
The Giants don’t want a free swinger that can’t play defense.
NO! Check out his home/away splits. Totally different hitter away from that joke of a park. He’d hit .200 with the Giants.
TellItGoodbye:
Home/road splits aren’t that illuminating in Castellanos’ case. Most players hit better at home, so GABP is going to skew to a greater degree. He’s played 9 years but only 2 of those in Cincy. So, more enlightening, I think, is to look at how he hit in different parks.
Comerica is no band box, rated a 98 from Baseball Savant, and in 422 games there he had a .287 BA with an .812 OPS. Progressive, in Cleveland, rates a 100 ranking, which is neutral. In 54 games he it .298 with an .824 OPS. Wrigley has a rating of 98, and was home to Castellanos for 40 games. He hit .364, with an 1.128 OPS there.
And all his park-adjusted numbers suggest he can hit anywhere. And he probably hits well enough to more than compensate for the bad defense.
Yeah it amazes me how many people think he can only hit in hitters parks just bc he raked last year at GABP… he’s not new to the league, he’s been established for years
Padres have not finished collecting Catchers.
They’re like the Reds with third basemen
Which is why they should sign Kyle Scwhwarber who was drafted as a catcher.
If teams are prohibited from contacting players during the MLB lockout, are they still calling them to talk about their extended car warranty?
The fact that Castellanos wasn’t signed before the lockout tells you that Boras’s asking price was too high. I’ve long maintained that he is not getting the $100M contract he wants. Quite simply he is a horrendous defensive outfielder that had a career year in GABP quite possibly the most hitter friendly ballpark in MLB and still only had a bWAR barely above 3.0. In today’s game with advanced metrics this simply does not equate to the contract that Boras wants
Or…all talks before the lockout were exploratory only, because if NL adopts DH as is widely expected, then guys like Castellanos, Cruz, and Schwarber will see their potential landing spots double.
Sometimes, not making a move is strategic.
You want to believe Boras didn’t do his homework because you don’t like him. It’s perfectly ok to dislike him, but give him his due: He is consistently the best prepared agent (team) in the free agent process.
Part of the reason GABP is friendly might be the pitchers that come in to pitch there. Lots of cubs… and pirates. Just worth a note… YES though it is 1000000% a bandbox but with a pitching unit closer to the NLW or ALE, would it be as much as a hitters park?
3 to 4 years, yes. 5 plus years, no.
Actually, pretty extreme home/road splits, which included one of the best hitting parks in the league. Make that 3 to 4 years maybe.
If a FO draws the line at 3 – 4 years, bothering to even consider Castellanos would be a waste of time. He’ll be entering his year 30 season. Multiple teams will offer 5 years, and someone will probably even offer 6. He hit well over 5 full seasons in Detroit, not a hitters park, and his park-adjusted numbers suggest his production is not all about GABP.
They can’t even negotiate though. I’m surprised there’s still rumors of teams and players have interest. Mutual or otherwise.
The rumor came from last night.
I gotcha. I didn’t see it. After the deadline for the new CBA I toned out mostly.
I think he’ll get 4/70 more guaranteed money any more is a over pay imo
I’m curious, given the lack of information available to MLBTR over the coming months, I wonder if they would write some articles on changes most likely to see implemented for ‘22. Similar to FA predictions or season predictions, it would be interesting to see some of the most impactful changes we should be expecting. I assume one is the universal DH, but who knows where that goes from here?
A winter without a Hot Stove is like Christmas without presents!!
More player analysis type articles would be nice. Deep dives into stats, looking for breakout players? Interviews with players/agents/front office peeps?
Hopefully they start a reader’s deadpool on the Lockout end-date! I’ll say Sunday March 27th
that’s cutting it close. I sure hope that’s the worst possible scenario
Yeah what I hear from BB writers is people around the negotiations expect it to be done by February. Let’s hope.
I sure hope you gentlemen are right, I seem to have misplaced my rose-colored glasses. We consistently see these negotiations draw out and butt up against “deadlines”…
Hmmmm, so management can’t talk to players during the lockout.
I wonder what would happen if, say in Miami, where Nick Castellanos lives, and Derek Jeter has a home and Kim Ng has a place, say they all happen to be at one of the prime restaurants with the rest of the millionaires, and Ng and Jeter come across Nick and say, “The food here is great.”
Nick responds, “Yes, it is. My favorite is the arroz con pollo.”
Kim and Jeter mentions, “Yes, it great. But they cook it best from April through October. We enjoy it all the time since we’re down here.”
Would this be talking and negotiating with a player during the lockout? Jeter and Ng may need to ask Pat Riley for some advice…but we know that Pat will say that it doesn’t count.
My thoughts exactly
PAT RILEY LENDS DEREK JETER AND KIM NG A HAND
JETER: Hey, Pat. See that slob over there eating chicken parmesan with his fingers? He’s Nick Castellanos, a free-agent outfielder Kim and I are interested in bringing here. Since we aren’t allowed to talk to him, can you do it for us? Go over, tell him you’re a big fan and ask him if he’s interested in playing for Miami.
A few minutes later.
RILEY: I talked to Castellanos.
JETER: What did he say?
RILEY: He thanked me for asking but said he isn’t interested in coming here to play. Since he hasn’t played basketball since high school, he doesn’t think he’d be much use to the Miami Heat.
LOL!
Are you sure? You know when Pat Riley throws his rings on the table, guys without rings get pulled in. In the very least, Jeter would have offered his or maybe called up Michael Jordan than Pat Riley could go back and throw all three of their rings on the table and let Castellanos know that MJ isn’t much use to the Marlins other than being in the background of ownership, but he’s now in Miami. Just get to Miami Nick!
Rather sign Kyle Schwarber. No QO attached.
Same, and for less money over a shorter time period. Wil stays in RF, Casty or Schwarbs in LF.
Keep in mind that Wil has one year left before a club option with only a $1m buyout. I would picture him in the fold for past this year.
@RicoD Not a chance that option gets exercised lol
They can opt for the buyout at $1m and then immediately open new negotiations… let’s just see what kind of year he has first.
@Gwynning Strictly speaking they could open negotiations the day the lockout ends. If both sides are amenable.
Yes, that’s true but I think Wil is happy enough to watch this year unfold as is… Just my gut, I have no actual basis to the belief. Cheers buddy!
agreed, meant to say “wouldn’t”* he’s gone after this year
Idk if Schwarber numbers would equal out between hitting in LA, SF, Colorado, Arizona for x amount if games than 81 in that RF graveyard in San Diego.
Steven Woods would do anything for this
97.3 The Fan’s Stevie? Just dangle a Klondike in front of him and he’ll do anything! Haha
Man, it’s been slow today around the MLB. What’s going on?
Guys got locked out of their work stations.
It must be time for the annual “Preller’s shown interest in ______ ” garbage. (Fill in the blank with every FA on the market.)
The weirdest aspect of the lockout is MLB.com being unable to use any player names, images. and likenesses on its website. Labor laws forbid it.
mlb.com/
now I have to go check that out. wild
I noticed that this morning, Ron! I changed my Insta pic to a blank shadow in support of the players haha
If it is all the same, I would rather the Padres pressure Kris Bryant. No lose of a draft pick, same age and should come in around the same AAV.
Uh, no. Bryant will cost more. MLBTR predicted him at 6/$160, and Castellanos at 5/$115. That’s $3.67M more per year.
AAV would be $26.6M to $23m. Not exact, but in the same ballpark. And not to be that guy, but what MLBTR predicts, won’t necessarily happen.
Agree that predictions are meaningless, but I doubt that Bryant would get less, and Castellanos would get more than predicted. If they were high on Bryant, they’re probably high on Castellanos as well.
I wouldn’t minimize that $3.67M in difference. I know you were talking AAV, but that’s over 5 or 6 years, so the investment is significant. And that difference is for better defense, not just hitting.
you think? I was seeing Bryant at$23 and casty definitely under $20. 18?
I believe Casty will get 5 and possibly 6 years on a deal and I wouldn’t be surprised if more then one team offers that length of contract.
Agree. I think he gets 5, and if someone really wants him they might offer 6, which would probably do the trick.
No way would I give Castellanos that many years. By the time the lockout ends, he’ll be pushing 35 or 36.
I think he’ll end up at 5-100
The Padres should go for Trevor Story. If Tatis is set for OF work and they have Cronenworth/Kim for 2B, then there is room for Story at SS.
Tatis won’t play the OF until Tatis wants to play the OF.
He’ll play wherever they tell him to play
He played OF for health reasons only. If shoulder permits, he’ll be back at SS. That’s where the team wants him.
Not reported on much, doctors warned him about baserunning especially headfirst slides and he attempted fewer SB. Was on pace for 45 SB. He does seem to strongly consider advice of his med staff.
He’s also not a great SS, so the OF is probably his future either way
Ha Seong Kim is the superior defensive shortstop. And it isn’t close. If Kim is playing, it needs to be at short.
Obviously, you weren’t paying attention last year. He showed his displeasure on the field and in the press. He’s got some growing up to do. And, he’s got to face the reality that he’s not a great SS. Good, but not great.
I’m not so sure the “team” wants him at SS.
@ Observer. Small sample size on Kim’s superior defense, he certainly doesn’t have Tatis’ arm, which is strongest among MLB SSs. And that same sample size showed Kim has yet to figure out MLB as a hitter. But more playing time might change that.
@SDHotDawg. I attended 35 games, followed them all. Outsiders don’t seem to get it. He wanted to play the day after each shoulder tweek but doctors/management convinced him to sit. He wanted to play SS because that’s the position he’s played his entire adult life, but the team recommended OF and he accepted. Any reluctance from a gung-ho 22 year old kid is not “displeasure” that should be criticized. His head-strong desire to play, and be the SS, while also accepting alternatives while his shoulder strengthens, is admirable..
@ Observer. Kim played more games at 3B and 2B last year than at SS. He’s only logged 35 games at SS in the majors, and many of these were as a late inning replacement. His positive dWar was largely due to great defense at 3B, not SS. And if you look at his 6 or so full years at Nexen in Japan his fielding%/error rate at SS was similar to what we’ve seen from Tati in his career 240 games at SS.
I meant Nexen in Korea, not Japan
A strong arm doesn’t matter if you can’t throw it on target. He made a lot of Errors, and most were throwing errors.
@Brewer … yeah, I get it. Everybody loves Tatis. Me too. But you obviously weren’t watching any games where he played in the outfield, or reading any of Acee’s and Lin’s reporting. I like him too, but I can still see he needs to grow the funk up.
“Preller signed a shortstop and that’s me.” — Tatis, when asked about playing in the OF.
He had a rough stretch with throwing errors, and he’s prone to about 15-20 errors per 150 games, going back to minors. But there are a lot of REALLY good SSs that make that many. So not that unusual. Many of his errors are because of this strong arm, which works both ways when you think about it. I’m not saying he’s GG, but he’s accomplished as a MLB SS and gets dissed more than he should after just 240 MLB games.
Preller did sign a SS 10 years $300 mil, what he’s saying isn’t wrong? He had never played OF before this last year. I read everything Acee writes…that’s a old grown man who hasn’t yet grown up if you ask me! He used to rip into SDSU’s coach Fisher at every turn and had to be told by his superiors to get a life or walk
Good shortstops don’t lead the league in errors. C’mon, be realistic. You can still worship a flawed idol.
But, that’s OK. You’ll just attack the sportswriters?
Er..14 years $340 mil
You obviously don’t have access to The Atlantic, nor did you catch his interview wth the TV reporter from DR. He got OVER $300MM because he’s supposed to be a professional baseball player.
Wrong man. His 21 errors didn’t lead the league. See Denver’s, Bichette, Baez, etc…
He got 340 mil because he’s a certain HOFer
Devers
cbssports.com/mlb/stats/player/fielding/nl/regular…
He led the NL in errors at SS.
He probably will be. Which has nothing to do with his play at SS.
OK, I just x-referenced on bbref. You’re right. He was only the THIRD WORST SS in the NL. My bad.
Ok yeah he had a rough year just a kid superstar I cut him some slack with the labrum and all and I need to stop typing into ..fing iphone too many misspells!
HOF will consider his production as a hitter at SS position so yes being a SS (even a flawed one) will play into HOF voting
Well, he also made 18 Errors in 82 games at SS in 2019.
Yeah he’s no Ozzie Smith, though even Oz made 21-25 errors per season in his first 3 seasons. Won his first GG in 3rd season with 24 errors.
Man, I loved watching Oz. But we won with Templeton.
Gary was silk. Though more error-prone than most 40 errors in 78! Still, helped Pads win in 84
Story didn’t hit so well last year
Making him more affordable
We’ll see – the market on SS is up (see Seager, Semien, Baez)
This continues to be a problem for SD. Had he not traded away Reyes, he would still have a good-hitting, poor-fielding LFer. He wouldn’t be as good as Castellanos, but he’d be cheaper by $100M+.
He could have kept Naylor to play LF. He’d be better than Reyes.
Naylor can’t play outfield at all either.
He can’t, but he was better and faster than Reyes. The thing I don’t get is why Preller keeps putting guys who never played the outfield in RIGHT field. You put novice outfielders in LEFT; it’s a lot easier, there’s less to think about, and the arm isn’t as critical. The exception is 12U Little League (which may be the top level of Preller’s expertise).
“Better defender than Franmil Reyes” is not a level one should strive to.
That is true. But as long as we’re scraping from the bottom the bottom of the barrel …. 😉
Preller can play one-person chess and still lose.
Castellanos,no,no,no,plus draft,plus 6 to 8 years. oh I foget, Peller is president, and he overpay.
Tatis and Machado have terrible chemistry. They could sign Jesus Christ to pitch and dh and would still miss the playoffs.
If there’s a clubhouse chemistry problem, I think you have to look at Hosmer.
Well it’s hard to win with a 2000 year old mythological figure as a main component on your team.
Mythological?
Castellanos would definitely strengthen and lengthen that lineup, but is another RH bat what they need? Not being a padre fan but following them loosely, don’t they need a LH bat more to provide a threat opposite tatis and machado? And a SP who can give innings?