Clayton Kershaw is among the most interesting free agents still available. The future Hall of Famer is no longer the best pitcher on the planet, but he’s still highly effective when healthy. He worked 121 2/3 innings over 22 starts this past season, pitching to a 3.55 ERA with a very strong 29.5% strikeout percentage and a tiny 4.3% walk rate. Among pitchers with 100+ frames, only five topped Kershaw’s 25.2 point gap between his strikeout and walk percentages.
Yet the 33-year-old’s status is complicated by a few matters. First and foremost is health. He missed two months with forearm/elbow soreness between July and September. The three-time Cy Young award winner returned to make four starts, but he exited his final regular season appearance with renewed forearm issues. That proved to be season-ending, and while he didn’t require Tommy John surgery, he did undergo a platelet-rich plasma injection.
Kershaw is expected to be ready for the start of Spring Training. Which uniform he’ll don remains up in the air, though. He’s been a career-long Dodger, and the Los Angeles front office has predictably spoken about a desire to bring him back. The Dodgers declined to make him a qualifying offer, a decision president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said last month was out of respect for his accomplishments with the franchise. There’s no doubt the team would welcome a return, but Friedman told reporters the pitcher wanted to take some time to ruminate on his decision with his family.
If he doesn’t return to the Dodgers, it’s widely expected he’d be donning a Rangers uniform. Kershaw’s a Dallas native who has ties to Texas manager Chris Woodward, who previously worked on the Dodgers staff. Woodward is already on record about the Rangers’ desire to bring him aboard this offseason.
Texas probably isn’t going to compete for a playoff spot in 2022, while the Dodgers look like one of the game’s top World Series contenders. Yet the Rangers would welcome both the high-end production Kershaw’s likely to provide if healthy and his veteran leadership for a generally young rotation in Arlington. If Kershaw and his family decide that a move to the Dallas area is desirable, the Rangers would no doubt be happy to add him.
There’d surely be other teams with interest if Kershaw casts a wider geographic net than Los Angeles and Texas. Assuming he’s indeed on track to be ready for the season, the eight-time All-Star would upgrade every team’s rotation. Kershaw himself hasn’t hinted at a decision one way or another, yet it’d register as a surprise to many around the industry if he signed with anyone other than the Dodgers or Rangers.
It’s also at least worth mentioning the possibility Kershaw decides not to play at all. Some may read into Friedman’s November statement that Kershaw “wants to take a little time with (his wife) Ellen and figure out what’s best for them” as a potential hint of retirement. In October, Kershaw had told reporters he hadn’t made any decision about his future (link via Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post). Turning 34 in March and still a well above-average pitcher, Kershaw still looks capable of pitching for multiple seasons beyond 2021, but retirement can’t be completely ruled out until he makes a definitive declaration about his desire to keep playing.
We’ll let the MLBTR readership weigh in with thoughts. Where is Kershaw likely to be in 2022?
(poll link for app users)
Al Hirschen
New York Mets
mannyl101
I’d rather retire!
The Baseball Fan
Dodgers. Can’t see him anywhere else.
User 4245925809
Don’t see him playing anywhere but LAD either. Texas might be home, but he hasn’t seen positively they are ready to win and don’t think myself he wants a year on a middle of the road team, if that’s how they end up.
Only way see him retired and not back at LA is if they try to not spend more money and begin a little cutting payroll.
Vizionaire
The Angels!
aladdinlee
While I believe he’s too injury-risk for my taste, the Angels seem to be a team that would consider it, and Kershaw would remain in LA area. Longshot yet plausible.
PutPeteinthehall
He’s got a date with the knife if he does not retire. All of the classic signs are there.
Ducky Buckin Fent
Tanaka went through what sounds to be a very similar elbow problem in ’14 that Kershaw is going through this year. Tanaka pitched the rest of his contract (+ option = 7 years) & will be throwing his second season for the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles on that same elbow this year.
Sometimes guys dodge it.
Hope Kershaw has the same success with rehab that Tanaka did.
All that being acknowledged; yeah. I hate the sound of it.
tstats
Didn’t Tanaka technically have a deformity in his elbow bones so his UCL like hooked and wouldn’t tear
Ignorant Son-of-a-b
I believe Tanaka was gifted with a very unique and lucky elbow…do we have any similar candidates like him we can add to increase the sample size so we can be more optimistic???
Jeff Zanghi
Supposedly David Price who famously told Boston Reporters he didn’t need Tommy John because he had a “special elbow” … however that didn’t exactly work out as well as Tanaka… lol
SlippinJimmy89
Hey, can someone make sure to get Clayton Kershaw to check out these comments so that Dr. RJNarvick can let him know of his prognosis? We should probably let some front offices know too.
BuyBuyMets
Thanks Doc
stuarthunky
Mets
SeibuLionsNPB
Braves
case
Without much healthy data from the second half of last year the real questions is… how good is he without foreign substances? Did he need them in the first place?
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Case:
In internet slang, a troll is a person who posts inflammatory, insincere, digressive, extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community (such as social media (Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, etc.), a newsgroup, forum, chat room, or blog), with the intent of provoking readers into displaying emotional responses.
Joey Slye-vermectin
Those are some good questions. Itll be interesting to see how he does post substance ban in his advanced age.
Itll be an interesting season to watch pitchers with no substances for a full year and full off season to prepare and practice not using such.
fox471 Dave
Wow! What must it be like to be you?
Chief Two Hands
That is a completely baseless comment from case. Flat-out stupid, quite frankly.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
I predict that Kershaw will start 2022 unsigned (by choice) and join the Dodgers by mid-season.
Samuel
@ MannyBeingMVP;
Very possible.
I feel the same way about Zack Greinke. He’d be most effective playing for 3-4 months instead of 6 – especially if he can get with a playoff team and be at full strength for the post-season.
Both those guys have made hundreds of millions of dollars, and I’d suspect their investments over the years have made as much as well. They can afford to miss a part of the year and come in later. They can wait out the early half of the season to assure they don’t get stuck on a team that’s a clunker.
Rsox
Roger Clemens did that his last two seasons, but he did with organizations he knew (Hou, NYY). Kershaw could probably do that with the Dodgers. Might be a little harder for Grienke
baumann
If Greinke wanted to do that and stayed in shape, I don’t think there would be any shortage of contenders that would be keen to sign him mid-season. Even limiting it to teams he has some experience with, the Dodgers, Brewers, and Angels all will likely be competitive enough at that point to be interested.
citizen
That worked well for kimbrell
TroyVan
Not a bad idea. No long Spring Training. Gives him a little longer to let his arm heal. And, I agree about the Dodgers. Love to have him as a Tiger tho.
Ilovebusch2
St.Louis
andrewv3892
Philly
DarkSide830
there’s barely a nonzero chance that that happens at this point.
5TUNT1N
Giants baby! 1 year reclamation project. Previous ties to Farhan. Kidding obviously! Wish u the best Clayton, won’t be angry if you leave the division!
coolpapabellx
Rangers
charlie 6
As a lifelong Dodger fan, it feels impossible to imagine Kershaw signing anywhere else. If he wants to live in Dallas (all year), he can retire. If he wants to win another WS, who better than the Dodgers?
traveling man
He’s never won a World Series!
fox471 Dave
Right! Astro troll?
traveling man
Who,me?
I’m not an Astros fan but they would have won the World Series without cheating.
amjr
So why did they cheat? That’s exactly the point!
GhostOfChanHo
How about he wants to earn a paycheck and drive his kids to school?
Maybe he stays in LA… but I’m sure it won’t be an easy decision.
SalaryCapMyth
@traveling man. It doesn’t matter whether they would have won without cheating or not. The only true punishment the Astros really got is the fact that no matter what you think, even IF you are correct, the Astros 2017 championship will always have an asterisk next to it, placed their by a consensus of the baseball community. The only way it could have been different is if the Astros hadn’t cheated.
Deleted_User
Still laughing at Friedman’s (alleged) reasoning for not QO’ing Kershaw. Like, that’s the type of thing I’d post on here as a joke/to play Devil’s Advocate.
amk1920
Clayton Kershaw is not playing for any team that’s not named Dodgers. It doesn’t matter at all
Deleted_User
If he doesn’t want to play for another team then QO’ing him wouldn’t hurt him and therefore would not be a showing of respect or goodwill.
Joey Slye-vermectin
It does if he doesnt sign with the Dodgers. Kershaw could very easily sign with the Rangers.
Home state kid, Seager signed there, Woodward was the Dodgers 3B coach, and hired Tim Hyders this off season.
Depending what moves Rangers make once the lockout ends he could very well sign there if the Rangers offer him the right deal.
Nothings official until he signs on the dotted line.
Deleted_User
@Joey Slye-vermectin If he wants to keep his options open he’s clearly not respecting the Dodgers. So why should they respect him?
amk1920
Clayton Kershaw is not leaving a team that’s in the playoffs every year for one that’s eliminated by August. Try again.
Deleted_User
@amk1920 Once again. If that is indeed the case then having a QO attached wouldn’t hurt Kershaw and as such extending the QO wouldn’t qualify as a respect/goodwill move.
Joey Slye-vermectin
Kershaw won his ring and is a clear first ballot HOFer.
At 33 and towards end of his career Kerhsaw could easily take the money and go play closer to home. His home in Dallas is roughly 20 minutes away from the stadium.
Itll be ok if he signs elsewhere man. Youll survive. Kershaw is gonna do whats best for himself and his family.
Deleted_User
@Joey Slye-vermectin…
1. I’m not a Dodgers fan so I’ll be more than OK if he signs elsewhere. In fact I will be laughing my *** off.
2. It’s not about whether the Dodgers would be “OK” with losing both Kershaw and the draft pick. It’s about whether they would be “better off.” I think the answer to that question is pretty simple.
The_Voice_Of_REASON
It’s a fake ring, give me a break. That was not a legitimate World Series.
gbs42
@Eric – The Dodgers dominated the regular season and won all their playoff series in 2020, including the final one. They’re World Series champions. The record books will never have an asterisk. It’s a legit title.
amk1920
If for some crazy reason Kershaw, goes elsewhere, all they were going to get had he had a QO was a 4th round pick. Its pretty hilarious how you comment about the Kershaw non QO on every relevant article. They already have an extra 4th for Seager. No one is losing sleep if they missed out on another.
Deleted_User
@amk1920 WIth as well as the Dodgers develop their draft picks it was all the more important that they get that 4th rounder. Like, I can see the Padres passing up on the draft pick because they’re gonna fail to develop it anyway but for the Dodgers, that’s a potential ROY candidate they just swatted to the ground. And for what?
Again, it isn’t about whether the Dodgers can afford to lose that draft pick. It’s about whether or not they are better off losing it.
Ignorant Son-of-a-b
@gbs It just seems that given one or the other, I would be more proud, satisfied, content, and confident in my team for winning the World Series in the traditional fashion rather than in a hackneyed thrown together 60 game season with a one-off playoff structure. If you had your druthers, wouldn’t you rather see your team win it all in the time honored and respected format??
citizen
Dodgers eliminated many years in lcs or world series.
gbs42
@Ignorant – I agree a championship in a 162-game season would be more satisfying. However, we don’t always get what we want, and a title is a title. If I was a Dodgers fan, I’d be happy about it.
Cam
It’s pretty sound. A QO would have put a lot of pressure on Kershaw to make a decision – something he clearly didn’t want, and something the Dodgers were happy to respect. Validated by the fact that he hasn’t signed, and has publicly spoken about the desire for time.
Fans who can’t understand that shouldn’t measure others by their own limitations.
Deleted_User
@Cam A QO would have put no pressure on Kershaw. If he wanted time he could decline the QO and then come to terms with the Dodgers or whoever when he is ready. All the QO represents for LA is insurance against him leaving. And unlike most forms of insurance it costs them nothing upfront.
GeoKaplan
You’re talking about a business decision. Friedman is talking about respect for Kershaw.
A QO would inhibit the potential market for Kershaw. By not offering Kershaw the QO, he is allowed every opportunity to sign with another team if he wants to, but doesn’t close the door to the Dodgers either. After all those years in the Dodgers organization, it is a respectful thing to do.
Deleted_User
@GeoKaplan…
“You’re talking about a business decision.”
Exactly! MLB is a business above all else.
“Friedman is talking about respect for Kershaw.”
Extending a qualifying offer is affirmatively NOT disrespecting a player. Players, even franchise icons, get QO’d every offseason.
“A QO would inhibit the potential market for Kershaw.”
Yeah I know. That’s the point. Why would they not want to do that?
“By not offering Kershaw the QO, he is allowed every opportunity to sign with another team if he wants to…”
Why would they want to do that? And if Kershaw wants to explore his options there is ZERO need to extend a respect/goodwill gesture, which declining to extend a QO still fails at.
“… but doesn’t close the door to the Dodgers either.”
Doesn’t close the door but it does make it harder.
“After all those years in the Dodgers organization, it is a respectful thing to do.”
It really isn’t. What it is is a stupid thing to do. And respected, tenured players who reach free agency get QO’d all the time. Just this offseason the Braves did it with Freddie Freeman. So are the Braves now a not-classy, disrespectful organization?
Last offseason, I suggested as a joke that the Phillies should do the same thing with J. T. Realmuto and everyone said it was stupid idea. But now that Friedman almighty does it he actually has people defending him.
Stat_head
@Remove Not extending a QO is a liability for the team but a bonus for the player since a signing team doesn’t lose a pick. Friedman’s comment about “respecting Kershaw” is legit because the team is sacrificing a comp pick to make it easier for him to sign elsewhere. This also implies that LA isn’t interested in signing him for the QO amount and that his market value is likely higher than they think he’s worth. His contract was expiring this year before he got hurt and they didn’t extend him so this is an effort to part ways without shackling him with a QO comp.
Deleted_User
@Stat_head Again, why would they WANT to make it easier for him to sign elsewhere? If he is looking to explore his options (or use other teams as leverage to make the Dodgers pay more money) then the Dodgers have ZERO reason to extend a respect/goodwill gesture. Kershaw sure isn’t extending one to them. Why would they not want to shackle him with a QO comp? They lose nothing and gain everything by doing so.
Cam
Because they’re showing him respect, which goes back the part you couldn’t get your head around at the start and made a fuss about. That’s what everyone keeps telling you but you can’t grasp it.
Deleted_User
@Cam Declining to extend a guy a QO isn’t showing him respect.
And extending a guy a QO isn’t not showing him respect.
mrperkins
Kershaw can wait a couple months and sign a prorated contract with a contender that has an arm go down. I could easily see the Cardinals as a destination.
mac1020142
Boston Redsox , they will contend and they have brought in enough fill in starters that if he would need a break he could have it . A rotation of Sale , Nate , Pivetta , Houck , and Kershaw , with Hill and Wacha for long and spot starts and Paxton and all star break arrival we’re looking really good
BlueSkies_LA
Dodgers. It really shouldn’t even be a debate.
Bjoe
ZERO percent change the Dodgers let him get away.
LordD99
There’s two choices: Dodgers or retirement.
lumber and lighting
First ballot Hall of Famer.Kershaw is a stud.But I believe he’s injured.He’s been battling various arm ailments for half a decade.But watching Scherzer and Verlander getting paid large.Maybe he takes a yr off and has TJ surgery and comes back brand new.He’s on a bunch of commercials and he’s beloved by all Dodger fans.With his résumé he can do what he wants and how he wants it.
BlueSkies_LA
This “arm ailment” is his first. The chronic issue that caused him to lose so much playing time for several years running was his back. So we can take your other medical predictions with the same grain of salt.
Poster formerly known as . . .
Just to mix things up, how about south to San Diego?
solaris602
Preller would first have to clear some payroll space (Hosmer and/or Myers) before that can happen.
Ignorant Son-of-a-b
I think Kershaw is done. I would love for him to prove me wrong but those injuries he sustained in 2021 loom very problematic and likely will be recurring until Tommy John is needed. Of course not a doctor but do you ever see injuries like this simply vanish or get better magically at 33 yo??? Ride off into the sunset with a proud satisfied gaze Hall of Famer!!!!
solaris602
If he needs the TJ he should just bite the bullet, get it now, and return in the middle of 2023. Verlander did just that, although we haven’t seen him pitch since recovering. In that scenario I see him returning to LA.
The_Voice_Of_REASON
Never heard of Clayton Kershaw. Assume this article is supposed to be about Clayton Chokeshaw. A fake World Series does not negate his choking.
JoeBrady
Muted.
gravel
Every team in the league wanted that “fake” ring and every team in the league played for the opportunity to win it. It’s only fake if the Dodgers didn’t win the WS in 2020 and claimed they did.
Alternately, fans who claim the title was fake or requires an asterisk have a hard time with reality.
Texas Outlaw
Rangers. He wants to come home
oldschool 15
Clayton will have the rest of his life, after retirement, to call Texas his home. He’s staying in Los Angeles for the remainder of his playing days.
lumber and lighting
It’s my belief that Kershaw didn’t get a QO out of respect.If he wants to go somewhere closer to his ranch he was free and clear.He gave us everything so many times we have nothing but respect.
Bigtimeyankeefan
Dodgers or a surprise team… Yankees?
bobtillman
Rangers. They’re trying to “win” the off-season, and whether it makes baseball sense or not, they’ll sign him. It will probably take an over-pay, but the Rangers have a lot of money, only some of which they’ve spent. And besides, a ‘meh” Kershaw is likely better than any other Range starter.
A'sfaninLondonUK
@bobtillman.
I agree – Rangers – and to be fair to the Rangers they’ve signed Jon Gray – who has somehow survived the Colorado pitchers graveyard….I’d expect him to compete with a “meh” Kershaw.
The elephant in the room is the state of his elbow (btw according to stathead he’s got the lowest home park ERA in live ball history which is nuts) – but can he start 25 – 30 games?
But it’s a match made in heaven – the star coming “home” – and he’d sell seats and jerseys in truckloads. So commercially it’s totally justifiable. He’d command close to Scherzer money – $100m over 3 years?? – could stay at home about 3 months more a year and transition into retirement on an exciting up and coming team. The Rangers have a lot in the prospects bank and have only acted in FA. If I’m Clayton Kershaw there is a lot to like about the Rangers.
jim stem
Ironically Gray’s numbers were better at home than away. Not sure what variables lead to that, but I wouldn’t expect his numbers to be much different.
A'sfaninLondonUK
Yeah @ Jim above – but if he has to make fewer home/away adjustments (I acknowledge there will always be some) – I’m kind of thinking there is room for improvement there.
As usual – glad it’s not my money!
Trey Buchet
Milwaukee.
❤️ MuteButton
My best guess is that he’ll go somewhere that has an opportunity to make the playoffs. I don’t believe Los Angeles is going to invest the money for a possibly/maybe. Seattle would be a wild card to get him. Most likely it’ll be St. Louis or Atlanta
mitchladd
I’m going with St. Louis, Not because I think they’ll spend to that level but because as a Cards fan I would love to see him in Cardinal red. I actually think Anaheim is more likely if he doesn’t re-sign.
BartoloHRball
Him pulling a Clemens or at least have an extended spring training and taking things slowly makes a lot of sense. I wonder if he has an inning limit in mind?
As a lifelong Mets fan, obv I want him to sign w them, but LAD makes so much sense, especially if he plans on slow-rolling.
jim stem
I think smart teams will require multiple onsite auditions to ensure arm health. If his velocity is there with no forearm issues, a fair market guaranteed two year with an option contract loaded with innings pitched and games started incentives can be expected.
Of coarse, as the article alluded, it could be Texas or bust. He’s certainly earned a retirement and family time. Like many of us, this pandemic has shown what we have been missing at home and what is important.
RoastGobot
I heard he was looking for a real organization this time instead of that 2 bit dog and pony show over in Chavez Ravine so if I gotta guess I say the Modesto nuts
fox471 Dave
Speaking of nuts, roast.
tigw
he is a great person a true ace
Fred McGriff
He wants a 161 game ring. He’ll sign with the Braves.
Morton Fried Anderson Kershaw Soroka others.
Comet
PHILLIES!!
yick04
Won’t happen because of geography and whatnot, but this seems like another good Pete Walker project. A 1-year, high AAV deal, and the Jays could use another lefty at the end of their rotation. He wouldn’t need to be “the guy”, plus Charlie’s insistence on managing workloads (whether the pitchers like it or not) would bode well for his durability.
But he’ll end up back in LA, so it’s moot.
tigw
true
BettisHOF
BlueJays are interested… did anyone write that yet?
#LCDad
Angels!
paindonthurt
Angels
Win Cor
A nice 2 year deal with the Cardinals would be good where he can start as the #6 pitcher and how ever it goes…whether he ends up as #1 pitcher or stays at #6, it’s a good thing.
joew
Almost all teams who think they have a real shot at contending will be throwing numbers at him.. I’d say dodgers most likely, but they’ll need to be creative with the Luxury tax…. if they even care about it and if they didn’t already free up room.
miltpappas
Never happen, of course, but I’d love to see the Orioles pull an OMG move and sign him.
Rsox
You have a better chance of them signing Mike Mussina or Ben McDonald…
miltpappas
Well, Eddie Watt will only be 81 on opening day. And I heard he’s only looking for a one-year deal.
texguy
It’s probably going to be the Rangers. The only way he stays with the Dodgers is if he takes a massive pay cut to stay with them. They are looking at trimming a little bit of payroll and to try to get back under the tax.
rich2273
white sox
Humm bumms
Giants, two years 40 mil
cookmeister 2
Angels make some sense. Pitching need, LA area, and can limit innings in a 6 man rotation
Old York
He’s signing with the Red Sox.
nickcage49 2
Giants baby!
Spare Tire Dixon
I agree with the comments re: Kershaw being patient. His market grows as soon as starting pitchers begin hitting the injured list. I think that still includes the Dodgers, who may prefer to wait and see how the Bauer situation shakes out. Also, if prospects can give them something or not. Kershaw still has good leverage even if he waits until the season starts (ala Keuchel in 2019).
GOAT Closer Esteban Yan
Tigers. I think the Rangers also have a good chance. These are the teams eager to spend and are flush with money and payroll room. After the contract debacle with Bauer, I think the Dodgers are going to be thrifty this off-season.
Dave 32
I feel like there’s a nonzero chance he’d sign with the Cardinals if nobody else meets whatever asking price he’s wanting.
The Cardinals have historically been happy to sign a guy who’s had problems or injuries if they can get a good deal. I don’t think he’s going to get 35m/season after last year and if he’s interested in joining a regular contender with some high quality veteran leadership already in place so he doesn’t have to be The Guy on the team, you can’t go wrong with St. Louis.
I could see the Cardinals giving him a very good one year deal to prove himself healthy and if it doesn’t go well for either side, no worries. The Cardinals need one really solid arm and things to just go a bit better than last year to run over the NL Central and I think Kershaw could be the guy to do it. I’d make him a real solid pitch anyway. If he turns out to be as good as years past, it seems like the Cardinals will maybe be in a rebuilding year in 2023 so he could just be around to give 22 a push for Yadi/Waino’s last year.
Of course, I expect the Cardinals to actually do their usual absolutely nothing worth talking about in free agency yet again, so this is just a pipe dream but it’d sure be nice to see them go for it.