The Mariners have made one of the biggest rotation pickups of the offseason already, signing Robbie Ray to a five-year, $115MM guarantee shortly before the lockout. Even after landing the reigning AL Cy Young award winner, Seattle is expected to pursue additional rotation help whenever the transactions freeze is lifted, writes Corey Brock of the Athletic.
The group behind Ray already looks pretty solid. Chris Flexen had a nice 2021 campaign in his return from a stint in South Korea. Marco Gonzales had some uncharacteristic home run struggles this past season, but he’s a reliable mid-rotation arm. Logan Gilbert posted a 4.68 ERA as a rookie, but his peripherals were more impressive and he’s one of the most highly-regarded young arms around the league.
A top four of Ray, Flexen, Gonzales and Gilbert is a solid start, and it seems there’s only one season-opening spot left up for grabs. While the Mariners ran a six-man rotation at points last season, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto suggested earlier this offseason that’s not the plan in 2022. Dipoto noted that last season’s six-man starting staff was primarily a function of the club’s concern about a drastic pitcher workload spike on the heels of a 60-game schedule in 2020. “Now that we are a full season removed from the truncated 2020 season, we feel the five-man rotation is a perfectly reasonable way to go,” Dipoto said (via Brock).
Seattle has a few in-house options for the final spot, albeit none with a whole lot of certainty. Justin Dunn and Justus Sheffield were each well-regarded prospects coming up, but they’ve been up-and-down as big leaguers. Dunn had a 3.75 ERA over 11 starts last season, but neither he nor Sheffield had especially promising peripherals. Nick Margevicius remains on the 40-man roster, but he missed most of last season after being diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome.
Each of Dunn, Sheffield or Margevicius could conceivably hold down a rotation role until one of the Mariners’ top young arms is ready for a call-up. Matt Brash was selected to the active roster during the final week of the regular season, but he didn’t see any major league action. Both Brash and fellow top prospect George Kirby topped out at Double-A in 2021, so it’s possible both righties are in line for a bit of Triple-A time to start next season. That’s also true of southpaw Brandon Williamson, a well-regarded young arm himself who has posted monster strikeout numbers in the minors.
Given the volume of near-MLB options already in the organization, it’s arguable that starting pitching needn’t really be a priority for Seattle. Yet the AL West is seemingly shaping up to be a competitive race, and the Mariners may not be content relying on a breakout from one of Sheffield or Dunn or on immediate success from their top prospects. Acquiring another starter could also kick Sheffield and/or Dunn to the bullpen and give the club some extra depth in the event of injuries that typically affect pitching staffs around the league.
Brock suggests the Mariners could look into either free agency or trade in pursuit of another hurler. The top of the free agent rotation market has already mostly come off the board. Aside from Carlos Rodón and Clayton Kershaw, most of the remaining free agent starters are back-end types. It’s possible Seattle targets a lower-cost veteran stabilizer — speculatively speaking, a reunion with midseason trade acquisition Tyler Anderson could be under consideration — but the trade market presents a broader array of higher-impact options.
Reds’ hurlers Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle and Sonny Gray have been the subject of trade rumors over the offseason, with Gray seemingly most likely to wind up on the move among that trio. The division-rival A’s could make any of Frankie Montas, Chris Bassitt and/or Sean Manaea available. The Marlins are reportedly willing to trade from their surplus of quality young arms. Landing a pitcher of Castillo’s or Mahle’s caliber and remaining club control would likely require surrendering a top prospect, something Dipoto has already suggested Seattle’s not willing to do. Acquiring a rental like Bassitt or Manaea likely wouldn’t require surrendering that kind of young talent, though.
Even after signing Ray, the Mariners’ payroll outlook is fairly clear. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource estimates Seattle’s 2022 player commitments at just under $87MM, including projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players. That’s well shy of the club’s franchise-record outlays in the $155MM range (via Cot’s Baseball Contracts). Dipoto and his staff should have plenty of leeway to pursue multiple upgrades whenever the offseason resumes. In addition to the desire to bolster the rotation, the Mariners are on the hunt for another infielder, a search that has already seen them tied to players like Trevor Story and Kris Bryant.
Wouldn’t mind a Tyler Anderson reunion. He’s a reliable #5, but not so good that he couldn’t be bumped for Brash/Kirby at some point.
Agreed. I think Anderson on a two year deal would be perfect.
Exactly. Sheffield and Dunn are good depth options that way. They shouldn’t go into the spring counting on either to be part of the rotation.
The inconsistency of Sheffield and Dunn, coupled with Hancock and Kirby inconsistently being on the mound in 2021.. Going into 2022 and 2023 with the expectation that they’ll shoulder a full seasons worth of innings is asking for trouble. I wouldn’t mind going after a reclamation project like Carlos Martinez either. Low expectations, but any contribution is welcome.
I think they’ll start Brash, Hancock and Kirby in AA (warmer weather) and limit their innings in the first half. Then, after promoting them to Tacoma once it warms up, they’ll just be a phone call from Seattle. Performance and health permitting, of course.
This is smart!
Anderson on a 2 sounds good. Make the 2nd year a club option that swings to a player option if traded
If the Mariners are willing to reach towards their previous payroll record it would leave over $68 million left to add for next seasons roster. With that kind of money available I’m surprised they haven’t been mentioned as a serious candidate for Correa. They could sign Correa, move Crawford to 3rd and still have enough money to go after a player like Rodon, Bryant or Kershaw. Or pull a Rangers move and just sign both Correa and Story then move someone to the outfield or first base. Are they still counting on Evan White to be their first baseman next year? If that’s the case they could try to get rid of him and sign both Correa and Freeman. I think adding Correa and Freeman to the infield would make the Rangers additions of Seager and Semien almost look like child’s play. That would put a dagger in the heart of some Rangers front office staff who thought they were really gaining ground on them.
Ty France will playing 1B next year. The 2nd half he was the best defensive 1B in the AL. White missed 3/4 of the season injured and will likely start the season in extended spring training and move to AAA later.
I just don’t see the M’s as being players for Correa, I think they would prefer Story and have him play 2nd base(also my preference) or Bryant for 3B and outfield depth. Also the +$300 price tag is pretty hefty for a mid-market team regardless of them having one of the best TV deals in MLB.
I know M’s management wants us to believe that the M’s are a mid-market team…. BUT… Seattle by itself is now the 12th largest market.
Adding in just Portland (roughly 25th) puts the M’s in the top 5, and we have this market to ourselves where New York, Chicago and LA have to divide their markets with 2 teams.
Then adding in Spokane and Boise (in the top 100 by themselves)… not to even mention Vancouver BC, and whatever Alaska adds….
Furthermore, the M’s are owners of a cable network as well.
There is no need for them to say they’re a mid-market team… other than to lower our expectations of their management.
M’s have the largest geographical footprint but that doesn’t necessarily equate to population, their market is not top 5 and are barely over 1/2 the Diamondback’s media share when you include Tucson/Scottsdale/Phoenix which is #5. . M’s don’t own any rights in BC, and they televise more than double the Blue Jay games than Mariner games.
Now that being said, they have one of the best TV deals in MLB. Owning the majority of the RSN which now includes being the carrier for all Portland Trailblazer and now Kraken games. They have positive cash flow throughout the year which other clubs do not have access to.
I don’t envision them going down that road again for the top of the market acquisition which requires a 10 year contract, maybe 7 years max with a higher AAV.
He pitched very well. I hope it’s mutual.
They’d be smart to resign him. He pitched well here and won’t cost much at all
to Manfred and Clark…tick tock
Lol! You think they care?
Sonny Gray would do pretty well in Seattle
Stroman would have fit pretty well into that rotation.
Shoulda..Woulda Coulda.
Was exactly what they needed and even after signing Ray their budget isn’t any higher than it was in 2021….and $75 million below 2018.
Could have probably signed Stroman and Story and Bryant and still been below 2018 budget.
Doesn’t seem like SEA is looking to really complete…just be good enough to sell tickets.
They have a promising core, there is no need to throw money around just to do so this offseason…Stroman would have made sense though
It’s not throwing around money just to do so….it’s signing the guys you need to actually have a shot at making the playoffs for the first time in 2 decades.
promising core that was outscored by 50 runs in 2021 and is projected to win 85 games and miss the playoffs again in 2022.
. Promising? yes….but that alone isn’t going to be enough.
Front office has been talking a big game for a while now, about how they would spend once our window opened……well only reason it’s not open is their refusal to spend. Could have picked up M.Semian or T. Walker last year on reasonable deals and ended a 20-year playoff drought….nope.
Could have picked up Stroman (on a 3-year contract in his prime no less) and Story/Bryant and ended the drought in 2022.
Nope.
Maintain course for 86 wins! Half-steam ahead!
Who are they going to spend the money on that we unexpectedly saved on Kikuichi? Would have went a long way toward paying for Stroman’s 2022 salary. Rodon’s about the only option left. Seems like they are going to pocket it rather than invest back in the team.
Saved 20 million on Seager…and MIGHT slightly upgrade his production IF they sign someone with that money. Replacing Seager with Bryant is only an upgrade of 1 WAR.
Not enough.
The core wasn’t all there yet. Missing pitchers and JRod and marte
Sounds like you’re more concerned with the Mariners trying to be the offseason champions rather than making smart moves
Bearproof –
You’re not going to fix all the problems in one off season, as easy as you apparently think it would be to do so. You need all these players to CHOOSE to sign with Seattle as well….can’t just snap your fingers and they sign on the dotted line. There’s a progression to contention, and considering where they came from a few short years ago, I would be happy with 86 wins last year. Their “window” isn’t exactly wide open right now…wait until some of Kelenic, Rodriguez, Hancock, Kirby and maybe a few others are contributing. Just because they haven’t signed every free agent available already this off season doesn’t mean they won’t make more moves. I’m a Brewer fan…so I went through 20+ years of crap too with an occasional decent season thrown in. The team started spending once our top prospects started making a MLB impact. It’ll come…just relax a little, dude.
@KCJ. – Thing is…this was the offseason to fix those problems. Look at this year’s class compared to the 2022 FA class. This is the one we’ve been primed for for years.
So in 2022…..we’ll be waiting till next year …again.
KCJ – 86 wins this year, not a problem.
86 wins next year? That’s what I’m complaining about. FO seems satisfied settling for that. level.
Bear, you’re complaining about being projected for 86 wins before the offseason is even complete and with a transaction freeze. And for all the projection talk, you’re complaining about not signing 2020 FA when they were predicted for less than 70 wins 12 months ago?
And trust this Phillies fan when I say jumping the gun on your rebuild by signing free agents because they lingered in FA too long isn’t exactly a recipe for success.
Lots of teams could have picked up Semien for cheap last offseason. Like I said, I agree on Stroman, but for the other guys you mentioned, I think they probably get over paid and underperform.
I think the M’s showed with the Ray signing that they are willing to spend on players they think it makes sense to spend on. If you’re an M’s fan and you’ve waited this long I can understand being impatient, but just look around the league at teams that have tried to buy their way out of the rebuild early and how that’s saddled them going forward (as mentioned by above phillies fan).
You know the offseason isn’t over, right? I’d much rather have a Story or Bryant than Stroman, anyway. Ray was the major upgrade in the rotation, now we need a major upgrade in the lineup. Can’t spend all our $ in one offseason. We will have guys to extend in the future.
My account- Exactly! Besides, if a player signed with someone else over Seattle it doesn’t mean Dipoto didn’t try to offer them a contract. Not all players sign just for the highest amount of money.
In fact, one could legitimately argue it’s too early in the rebuild to go “all-in” this year. They’re only 2 seasons plus 60g in 2020 into an overhaul- teams who are this far into their rebuild don’t spend much in FA, or trade from their growing farm system. Of course, I’m glad they’re choosing to improve, I’m positively ecstatic they’re ‘going for it’ this offseason.
This offseason is different from any other: the owners will have seen how T-Mobile was sold out in the last 3 games of 2021, the first time in a very long time. I’m positive that revenue will have a impact on the amount of cash made available for Dipoto. There’s no use casting judgement on what Dipoto has done up until this point- the team will be improved once the lockout is over.
Bearproof has to be the ONLY M’s fan/MLB fan who is not looking forward to the M’s next few seasons. Not counting life’s share of curmudgeons. I mean, look at the facts- they’re a young team that just won 90 games. The INF has a GG SS (and technically a GG 1B,) as well as another 1B who should’ve won a GG last yr. 3B will almost certainly be improved. The OF will improve esp if 2020 ROY K Lewis is healthy, even if he’s not Kelenic should improve. If JK can match or even improve on his last two months of the 2021 season that offense is def going to be better than last yr. The #2 Prospect in all of MLB Julio Rodriguez will be promoted next yr, so will G Kirby, M Brash and others. We have the 2nd best farm system to make a big trade or two AND still have plenty leftover for depth. The current BP is loaded. If we add another solid middle rotation SP2-4 the rotation (and the pitching depth) looks better than anything we’ve had in over a decade. The future is bright in the emerald city.
Do the M’s have the magic dust that made the 2017 & 2021 Robbie Ray? The 2014, 2015, 2016, 2018, 2019, and 2020 Robbie Ray was a back end of the rotation guy.
Wampum- most importantly Seattle doesn’t have the AZ Diamondback Pitching support Staff who were constantly meddling with his foot placement on the rubber and the mechanics of the delivery. Tinkering and moving him away from what gave him success n the first place.
If you don’t know already, you should read about the SF Giants approach to K Gausman: they just left him alone. Much like TOR did to Robbie Ray. Before his move to SF the Orioles constantly tried to change Gausmans mechanics. How did that work out?
Yes it’s proven that they do. Numerous bp arms have turned there careers around. Flexen also. Although Kikuchi couldn’t get his mind right to be aggressive. And was not fixable in there minds.
@ayrbhoy that approach is too radical for most teams. Just letting be what made a player successful in the past? Crazy talk. LOL
Hahaha exactly! I cant remember where I read the bit about Gausman but it literally said when he came to the SF Giants “they just left him alone!”
The adjustment he made in Toronto had to do with the way he was pushing off.
His one bugaboo was dingers, and he’s going to a stadium (and division in general) that suppresses them. And he won the Cy Young in the hitter-friendly AL East.
I don’t think they need magic dust, but Pete Woodworth worked his magic with Gilbert, Kikuchi (first half), and virtually the entire bullpen.
Ray looks like an excellent fit for Seattle.
I’m willing to see how they finish the offseason. Just because you like Stroman doesn’t mean he was ever one of their top targets. Even if he was, I don’t want them to throw money around like Texas.
Sure if they end their offseason with just Reynolds and Ray; it was a failed offseason.
They have more than enough time to add a couple more bats & another starter. It’s a great start, plus plenty of other teams have done far less.
Supposedly have an offer out to Story and seem to have a plan.
I’m like most others & still skeptical.
Yet I didn’t expect Ray. His upside still high; while a bit of a risk, he could be the steal of the offseason.
The only thing I was frustrated with was the lockout it killing some of the momentum from signing Ray.
Hopefully something will be done right when lockout ends to get everyone excited again. There’s definitely many opportunities left to upgrade this team.
@bearproof Dipoto places a high value on character. Stroman has issues, LOTS of ’em!. He’ll trade for a starter or sign a one that will help you forget all about Stroman.
Problem is…. Stroman would’ve had to have wanted to come to Seattle. He probably preferred Chicago
I would of love to see all them sign in Seattle hell we should get The Japanese OF as well
But the problem is we need to resign Mitch and JP and maybe Flexon and Frazier. There is no cap but there is limits
Wish they would have resigned Walker last year. I thought he would have been a better pick up than Paxton. Not saying this as an afterthought of Paxtons injury Walker was one of the guys I would have liked all along. Couple years and some good luck and this rotation should be pretty good.
He tried to sign Walker.
Haha! With one of those “hat-in-hand” deals the M’s were offering. Sure… he tried.
Pinto, Marlow, and Juan Then for Sean Manea
That’s actually a really good and realistic trade proposal… not some The Show stuff like Manaea for Kirby and Marte sort of stuff lol…
Exactly! Fans of other Org’s seem to forget that the Seattle system is so loaded prospects like Juan Then, Cade Marlowe and Matt Brash would be ranked much higher in their teams farm system. Just look at what Cade Marlowe did last year.
So a 24-year-old OF with one game above A ball, a pitcher coming off a 6.46 ERA, and a lottery ticket.
Touché!! Yes A 24yr old prospect who finally put it all together. In one yr he raced through 3 levels while hitting 61 XBH’s 107 RBI’s with 24 SB’s! He is roughly 5th or 6th in the depth chart behind other top prospects! He’s a scrub- no doubt he’ll be selling commercial real estate or insurance in 3 yrs.
21 yr old Juan Then? With his 100 mph FB!? Yes that kid with a 2.98 ERA in 3 different leagues as a 19 yr old. Yes him.
Matt Brash the lottery ticket that multiple contenders tried to acquire at the 2021 deadline? The kid with such a filthy slider it was compared to Kerry Woods nasty slider by the Pitch Ninja. I cant remember seeing one minor league pitcher this yr who made the (much respected) Pitch Ninja’s end of season awards. Yea that guy
I think the lottery ticket he was referring to was Pinto as was suggested in the trade that he was responding to, not Brash.
With Piscotty attached?
That is an underwhelming return for an excellent starter.
It would be nice if they could add one more really good arm in the rotation.
But I really want them to leave the rest of the team alone.
I realize this is a very unpopular stand, but I don’t live or die on the “likes” I get.
Mainly, the Covid-19 pandemic is causing enough stress and craziness without our having to endure a player lockout where everything is “frozen”. Manfred and Clark need to clean up their act!
They also need an impact bat. Last year in the AL, they were next to last in wOBA, OBP, SLG, last in average, OPS, 10th in wRC+, and had the second highest K-rate. They had 5 players with at least 150 plate appearances and a sub-90 OPS+. Upgrading Dylan Moore to Adam Frazier is a step in the right direction, but their offense needs another hitter.
Yes, mlb1225, but the problem for me is who has to step aside to make room for this impact bat?
I like the individual players we have now, and I don’t want to see any of those guys sidelined for any reason.
And I don’t like the idea of some high-priced guy who would only DH, either.
Who has to step aside?
Toro shouldn’t be guarenteed a regular line-up spot. 3B is a hole that is waiting to be filled. Luis Torrens DH’d for a good portion of 2021 and he was only about a league average hitter. Signing either Bryant or Story fills one of the infield holes, then signing an outfielder moves Haniger to DH.
If you want to win, you’re offense can’t rank bottom three in multiple meanginful offensive catergories, no matter how much you like the guys that are on the team.
Not a big follower of the Mariners. The comments above from the 2 of you are interesting and educational. I enjoy reading both of you under other stories as well.
Toro’s 2021 looks an awful lot like Dylan Moore’s 2020. Great in spurts.
You have to add talent whenever you can because there’s no guarantee that players will perform up to expectations, either via injury or poor performance. Hopefully Toro outperforms everyone’s expectations, but relying on that is putting a pretty big season on the shoulders of a 24 year old (almost 25 – happy bday Toro!) career .220 hitter.
By all means, make sure Toro plays, but the time for playing young guys at the expense of wins is over.
I think a big issue with Toro is they put him at 2B for an extended length for the first time in his career and he was out of sorts. He is streaky but when he is locked in he is en fuego. If they decide to keep him a 2B a full ST with Coach Perry will get him much more comfortable. Perry is the best infield coach in MLB, the way he was able to transition France at first base is just short of a miracle, TF was mediocre to start the season and by September was the best in the AL
As of now…. Frazier replaces Jake Bauers on the roster. Moore makes this team unless further moves materialize.
Outside of filling the holes in LF and either 2B or 3B, I’d agree.
Fred- yeah! Who wants the Mariners to acquire more talent!? That’s crazy talk…haha. Hopefully you interpret that sarcastic comment as an attempt at humor, not as disrespect. My point is The Org. is in a fantastic position to add more talent to the current roster.
I understand your perspective on the team being good right now. I agree with your assertion that our young players will improve- Kelenic especially, JP has improved each yr. If (big if) Kyle Lewis can stay healthy the whole OF is better. We missed his power numbers AND his defense in 2021. Ty France (4.3 bWAR last yr) is such a good hitter: his two stroke approach and ability to hit to all fields reminds me of Edgar Martinez. The kid hit .399 in AAA, his AAA numbers were ridiculous- .399/.477/.770 with 27 HRs and 89 RBIs in 118 games!? Wow! He has the talent to be a special player. Logan Gilbert should improve. The BP is absolutely loaded and if Adam Frazier plays 2B/LF he is a big upgrade on Dylan Moore. Toro could also be an upgrade at Utility.
I agree there is a possibility the team (as is,) could be better than the 2021 team. You lose me however with your logic and reasoning behind the decision NOT to use the payroll and prospect capital available to further improve the team. To me, your logic is a bit like being content with your retirement fund then turning down the offer of a trust fund/ free money on top of one’s pension. Does that make sense?
ayrbhoy, If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
Too much adding is too speculative.
In 2021, morale was good, Team attitude was great. That’s how they won 90 games in spite of their low scoring.
They’ve already added two good players in this off season.
That probably didn’t upset things.
Any more will very likely cause upset and regression.
That’s how I see it.
Fred, thanks for explaining your logic. I’ve been struggling to understand it. Of course, I disagree, but much respect.
You skipped over my main point- I agree with you, the 2021 team is a good young team that can improve.
Of course I understand the phrase if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. However, In this context- the mysterious and unpredictable game of baseball, that doesn’t apply. The only thing that stays the same year in and year out in baseball is that the teams and the success of its players change from year to year. Regression and progression. Their production is not linear- it’s more like a Richter scale.
If you’re suggesting the 2021 Mariners will have the same success. You’re suggesting the team will again win many tight one Run games. We no longer have Seager’s production and insanely good hitting w RISP. We saw how Sewald and Misciewicz tired down the stretch from both being in many stressful high leverage spots and being overused. I’m not saying fix the 2021 team rather, that Championship teams constantly try to improve and simultaneously plan for some regression.
I really don’t understand your premise that adding more than two talented players “upsets things.” Upsets what? Team Chemistry? What do you mean by adding more than 2 better players makes current players worse? How? The SF Giants are on a similar time scale with similar payrolls in their rebuild. They were projected to win around 80 games. They practically built a whole new rotation with Gausman DeSclafani, Wood, Smyly. They Signed Daren Ruf and new RPers- then went on to win the most games they have ever won in 138 yrs
I’m a numpty at times- I really don’t understand your logic behind not adding more than 2 quality players but maybe you can educate me.
I don’t mean to badger you by continuing this thread- I’m just starved for FA news/ Mariners news
Yeah. That I understand, ayrbhoy.
Play ball, darn it!
I do everything intuitively regarding baseball. Can’t really explain it. Just a feeling, or hunch.
As you should Fred! Fandom is all about feelings.
Thanks Fred, Indeed Chester- and I’m content to read other M’s fans feelings and enjoy the friendly banter.
Mariners fans have suffered for nearly 20 yrs now. Its finally a fantastic time to be an M’s fan. I love talking with fellow passionate M’s fans
Like many have said through the many years… love your passion and optimism.
However, I know you know and understand stats… so…
Last year, the M’s OF collectively was in the bottom 5 for batting average, on base percentage, OPS. slugging, runs scored, and etc… Further, they were in the bottom 10 for defense whichever system you look at.
Not playoff worthy.
While the OF time divided will probably be something like : 140 games of Kelenic, 100+ games of Mitch, 80+ games with Lewis, 50 games of Fraley and 120+ games of the combination of Frazier, Moore, Trammel, Toro and whomever else… that group will not be drastically different. We can expect an increase to get them up to the bottom 10 offensively and defensively…. maybe reaching middle of the road if Julio actually pulls off being the 3rd best player to ever wear a Seattle uniform in his first year.
This group NEEDS a boost.
Moreover, the infield has lost Mr. Clutch Seager…. and replaced him with Toro and Frazier???.. definitely a loss of HR’s, doubles and RBI’s… and probably worse defensively.
Thus the offense is probably similar to last year. The defense maybe is the same, if not worse than last year.
Lastly, as some have already pointed out, the Angels and Rangers have had multiple additions already, and will probably add even more.
The M’s are not a playoff team as they sit today. Sorry.
Absolutely agree, They need another starter, depth in the outfield and they need to find some left handed hitting. I will say their bullpen should be one of the best in all of MLB. With a full year of Castillo, Munoz, and Giles to the already formidable Sewald, Steckenrider, and Saddler. If they go into the 6th with a lead it will be game over.
I’d be very happy if they signed Bryant and Suzuki for 3B and OF, then swung a deal for a SP. I’m still thinking Oakland, Miami and Cincinnati could be good trade partners for a SP. Adding any of Bassitt, Manaea, Montas, Castillo, Gray or Lopez to a rotation of Ray, Gonzales, Flexen and Gilbert would outstanding.
I have totally expected Seattle to grab another TOR SP after Ray was signed. And I also see them landing one of Bryant or Story. AND I can see them still making a strong push for Seiya Suzuki.
Kershaw AND
Bryant AND
Suzuki
All three signings would still keep Seattle’s payroll under $150m!
Rotation
Kershaw
Ray
Marco
Flexen
Gilbert
(In the wings: Kirby, Williamson, Brash, Hancock)
Lineup
SS Crawford
2B Adam Frazier
DH Haniger
3B Bryant Or Story
OF Seiya Suzuki
1B France
OF Lewis
OF Kelenic
C Raleigh
(In the wings: Julio Rodriguez, Marte)
And we still have the top #1 Farm System
Why bother setting your sights so high when you know none of that is going to happen.
Just so unreasonable.
It’s not unreasonable at all. Seattle has NEVER been in a better position financially all while having the top Farm System in MLB!
Even though I’d love to see Kershaw or Rodon, I think Dipoto will grab Bryant AND Suzuki in FA and wheel a trade for a TOR SP.
And I totally expect Dunn and Sheffield inside a package deal and traded away!
Kershaw will NEVER sign in Seattle. I’ll bet you my house on it.
That would be fun, but I really don’t see Kershaw going to Seattle.
I foresee FA signing of Story or Bryant and still a push for Suzuki…and Dipoto trading for a top SP.
I could see an A’s trade that would send Evan White, Sheffield, Dunn for one of the A’s SPs
I’d like to see Story sign a 1yr deal to play SS, where he wants to play, and enter next year’s market.
Evan White has negative value. Dunn and Sheffield for one the A’s arms is a possibility. I’d think Bassitt for that offer. The other 2 would take more talent added.
No way the A’s are taking bad payroll like White though.
Sheffield and one of their top 15 prospects for Manea. Bassitt will be sold high probably to Yanks or RSox
Are you kidding? White is exactly the kind of player A’s would love. Excellent top Defense, and cheap AAV under long term club control! They take White and his cheap salary for their rebuild process I have know doubt
Manaea is a lefty and has tossed more innings last year and in the past.
I’d think the sticker price on him is slightly higher but perhaps it’s a personal preference deal.
21.5 million dollars over the next 4 years to a negative WAR player.
You get no cost savings if you send him to AAA to workout his offensive problems.
That guy doesn’t have positive value. I’m sorry. The M’s either play him and let him rebuild value or they have to give him away. Possibly with a small prospect attached to do so. Depending on if they can find a team that believes they can turn him around—they may take the shot for free but they aren’t going to give you an asset.
The A’s want to shed as much money as possible so I can damn near guarantee you that they aren’t going to take him.
Even didn’t have positive value in 2021 because he was injured for nearly all (80%) of the season. Evan White was a GG defender in 2020* in his Rookie season, he has a favorable contract and was a good hitter in College and the Minors. You dont measure the value of a young player after 100 career MLB games you factor in the projected value over the length of a cheap contract. The A’s will likely have to replace a GG defender at 1B-Olson also struggled to hit ML pitching after his promotion.
Besides- I really don’t see White being traded since he will be learning to play 2-3 different positions. Jerry values plus defenders
Exactly I really dont see Kershaw going anywhere else other than Chavez Ravine. The Dodgers tend to hold on to a lot of “their own” pitchers.
Besides- They will have to replace Scherzer AND Bauer. As much as I’d love to see a healthy Kershaw spin his curveball in the M’s Sunday cream colored shirt- that is a pipe dream.
@drfelix Kershaw will NOT be a Mariner. Pretty sure he’s a Dodger for life or his next stop is Texas.
@dr
No way Kershaw considers Seattle as a option.
Just like seimien, who wouldn’t even talk to Seattle. Didn’t wanty to come here.
Only way Kershaw signs in Seattle is if he gets the following offers and the player’s union pressures him into taking the money:
LA – 2 years $60 million
Texas – 2 years $70 million
Seattle – 4 years, $140 million
How can the Mariners have the #1 farm? I saw one OF and two SP who may be MLB players.
@Garry- Then you really don’t know the Mariners farm and need to study it more extensively if you care about getting an accurate read of it.
We have 5 guys in the top 100 with more close to breaking the top 100… we had 3 In The top 10 until Kelenic hit the 25 man last year. Have you seen Blash’s stuff WOW. Williamson and Blash are heading higher in the top 10 this year! Marte is only 19 and somehow he advanced to the top 10 last year.
@Garry Harris what are you talking about? They have one of the best SS prospects in all of the minors, multiple SP who would be the #1 prospects on most clubs and Rodriguez arguable the best OF prospect in the last 3 to 5 years.
I don’t get why people have Kelenic so low in the order. I think he blows up spring training and ends up in the top half of the order when the dust settles. Just my opinion.
I agree but until he breaks out they will keep him in the bottom of the order
Mariners prediction:
Mariners receive Sonny Gray
Reds Receive: Adam Macko & a lower level Top 30 prospect.
Mariners sign: Trevor Story 4 years $92 million ($23 million AAV) I could possibly see the M’s add a performance based 5th year option to seal the deal.
Mariners Receive: Brandon Nimmo or Kevin Keirmaier from the Mets or Rays to play CF with the uncertainty of K-Lew.
@bus035 I hear Nikki’s first step and paths to fly balls is not that great. Kiermier;health issues. What about Cain from Brewers? Let kelnic and Fraley share LF-see who rises for the top.
Would be more like Deloach or Williamson for Gray straight up
Kelanik. Kirby and harry ford. To the reds for:
Castillo, moose (and his salary) and jonathon India. Fits both teams timelines better. Reds get younger and cheaper.
Thank God you’re not our GM!
Kelenic and Kirby and Ford ain’t going anywhere!
Ha. For a young cheap ace. And a rookie of the year. U expect to give up garbage prospects?
we don’t want any of those guys if that’s what you are asking for. Mariners say no before you can finish the offer
Castillo has 2 yrs of club control, and you want to give up the next 7-8 yrs of club control on Kirby’s ACE potential. AND Kelenic’s remaining 5 yrs of club control. And then Ford our top C prospect who will be here in a few yrs??!! You are suggesting giving 3 of our top MLB prospects with 17 years of 25-man roster club control for two years of Castillo? …. Unbelievable!
Dipoto has spend so much time building the top farm system in MLB and you want in one trade to dismantle a huge portion of his work… wow.
A more likely trade would be for one of A’s top 3 SPs and kick back Evan White, Sheffield and Dunn to the A’s
@hoyce
They’re not all garbage prospects. Moustakas is an expensive, over the hill, veteran.
Ur reading comp skills aren’t the best I see. India is also in that trade. He is already what kelenic may be. And has 5 years of control w stellar on base skills and defensive projection at a position of need. And moustakos. (Which is not nothing. But close)
Agreed. He said he wouldn’t include any of the mariners players in the trade. And I responded did expect the reds to agree to that trade without including premium prospects.
Reds are not giving up India.
Hoyce –
I don’t think you are thinking clearly. India is a solid player but isn’t really all that great. Moose is over the hill and severely overpaid. Castillo has 2 years left. Kelenic easily has 2X the potential India has. There’s a reason that everyone on here is disagreeing with you.
You think Kelenic easily has ~8 fWAR potential? I guess that’s a take. India had 3.9f WAR in 2021 with a 122 wRC+ while playing valuable defense. Kelenic was a negative for 2021…I can understand dreaming on Kelenic’s potential, but to say that India isn’t all that great and think that Kelenic has 2x the potential *easily* is a ridiculous comment.
India overperformed. I doubt he replicates 3.9 fWAR again. Probably more like a 2 WAR player. For that reason, I could agree with KCJ’s assessment that Kelenic could be double India’s value.
Kelenic was the Mariners best hitter in September. I expect him to continue making leaps.
So if we just pretend reality didn’t happen then you think he could be correct? If he’s already reached 3.9…that’s his potential. So you thinking that he won’t replicate it cuz reasons and that he’s a 2 war player, cuz reasons, so Kelenic could be 2x that standard that you made up based on (?)…isn’t really valid argument to the point that I made.
This idea that the guy who put up 3.9 fwar surely over performed, but the guy who put up -0.7 has *easily* twice the potential is asinine, unless you ignore reality.
You cannot simultaneously bash India and praise Kelenic.
India has performed at the ML level and was a highly regarded prospect in his own right.
Lewis Brinson was once a top 5 prospect too. Kelenic *could* turn out that way. India has already proven he can handle ML pitching. Kelenic may have a bit higher of a ceiling but there’s also a significantly lower floor.
India and Kelenic were also drafted in the same draft with India going #5 one spot ahead of Kelenic. So its not like India wasn’t a top prospect himself. He seems to be preforming as expected, not outperforming his expectations.
This is the most realistic comment I’ve read on this subject. It’s like the mariner faithful are so blinded by kelenics potential they forget to read/comprehend anything else. He very well might be a bust (prob not) and are offended to see him in a trade proposal. I think dipoto would jump all over an India for kelenic straight up trade. Reds fans would want heads to roll.
JD wouldn’t do a straight up trade. Especially after Kelenic’s last 2 months. He will keep his golden child. Good or bad Kelenic isn’t going anywhere.
U overvalue kelenik and undervalue India. U can dream all u want. India is 3Xs the player kelenik is right now. India has proved it. Kelenik has potential. No doubt. Mariner fans are obervaluing prospects what do u think the mariners would have to give up to acquire Castillo and india? Agreed moose is negative value. That’s the reason for the reds to actually make the trade. Maybe reds have to kick in $5 million in mooses contract. Trade simulator has this as a close value trade also. At 112 to 105 kelenic +49 Kirby +46 and ford +15
India +69. Castillo +68 and moose at -33. So it’s not as crazy as u delusional mariners fan
Dude, it’s crazy. Kelenic is 22. When India was 22, he was hitting .259 with 11 HRs between AA/A+ ball. Kelenic has way more potential and looks as if he’s poised to take off after a great September (7 HRs in one month in the mlb comparatively). He is literally one of the cornerstones of this 3-year roster rebuild. Multiple years worth of moves have been made or not made, because he’s pegged to be in the M’s OF for many years to come. Why in the world would the M’s abandon all that planning right when it’s starting to get good just because the Reds have a guy that’s older and also good?
It makes no sense from the Mariners standpoint, which is why they would hang up before you said “Kele….” It really has nothing to do with India’s worth.
The deal isn’t going to happen. Kelenic is staying put. I certainly wouldn’t argue that.
I was just stating the hypocrisy of prasiing Kelenic and dumping on India. India was also a top 5 pick in the draft and was very well regarded. Nonsense to bash him.
@hoyce Dude! Shouldn’t have made any noyce…that was awful bro!
There are some decent lower tier FA SPs. Buy low.
They should get PabLo he could be relatively cheap depending on the new agreement (would have been moving into his arb years)
Kwang hyun Kim seems like a reasonable target with higher upside.
I mean I don’t see anymore SP on the FA side that I see as a solid two (which is what I think we should be shopping for as Flexen and Marcos are more 3/4 type pitchers). I honestly would rather see them give Brash a shot or Williamson even.
I would hate to see them pick up someone meh and take a spot for 2 years when they could use it on one of the many arms we have in the minors.
Honestly I hope if they pick someone up it’s via trade at this point if it’s for the rotation.
From everything I’m reading Story prefers to stay at short. I doubt we get him unless we outbid the other teams. Also story costs a draft pick. I would rather see them get Bryant or somehow convince Seager to come back but I think that ship has sailed.
If not Bryant I hope they go via trade to get a 3rd baseman.
I wonder if Ke’Bryan Hayes is available and what their price for him is.
I would like to see them get a bullpen arm too. I think Munoz will be healthy and hoping for Giles to bounce back from injury too but I think a lot of our pen last year out performed themselves.
@taesamlee
I think Carlos Rondo would be a good FA addition. He and Ray would give the team two LH starting pitchers to anchor the rotation. With our pitching development staff Rondo should perform at a high level. Rumor has it the team has a trade worked out for Sonny Gray.
If we don’t get Story I am okay with Toro at 3B. I expect Toro to take a step up. Last year was really his first full year in MLB. He still has upside offensively. He hit well in the minors. If we lose on Story I would pass on Bryant and trade with Cleveland for one of their AAA infielders.
I think Seiya Suzuki is a good possibility. Kelenic should be better at the plate. Raleigh, too. Dipoto will not take on any bad contracts like Moustakas.
The only issue I see is then we have a rotation with three LH. Not the biggest fan of three lefties but Rodon would be a decent option but again not a two type pitcher.
What do you do in left platoon Kelenic and Lewis? What do you do when Rodriguez is ready for his shot?
I haven’t read up on Suzuki as much as I would want to say I have. I know the numbers look good. Is there any worry in decline of performance in the mlb?
@taesamlee
Three LH pitchers is a luxury. Dunn would drop to the bullpen and we have a lot of RH relievers as well as Brash and Kirby.
Ideally I would put Kelenic in LF and Suzuki in CF. They could alternate since we know Kelenic can play in Center. Julio is also practicing in Center. I think we will be fine.
Suzuki is 27. I expect him to hit. In Seattle he will have his boyhood idol, Ichiro, coaching him up. He also wears No. 51. He will probably love playing CF at Safeco. The issue is his arm is designed for RF.. He can throw guys out at 3B.
Pitching development isn’t going to stop Rodon’s arm from blowing up. Grabbing him isn’t a bad idea if the years are right, but I wouldn’t count on him to anchor anything
F you mariners. Stop trying to be good. The baseball world wants to see mike trout in the playoffs. Same with you, rangers
Marlins and Mariners line up well for a trade. IMO
Marlins need bats, Mariners need arm.
Marlins and send Lopez and his 3 years remaining back
Or Elieser or any combo of our top prospects for one of their ready to play elite controllable OF bats.
The elite, controllable outfielders are not quite ready. They are all bunched up at AAA. Only Kelenic has broken through to MLB.
Trade Elieser Hernández for Jake Fraley or Taylor Trammell.
Pablo Lopez and his career high 111 innings aren’t going to bring back an elite controllable ML ready OF’er. Just not going to happen.
I like Brandon Williamson Seems like a nice guy with good stats .Hope he catches on with the M.s LETS GO BRANDON!!
They should look into a Carlos Martinez signing.
It’s a busy time here I see. Personally I’m finding myself align much the same as this article here. Sure it would be nice to get a high profile pitcher to come in but then at what expense which goes beyond money matters. Being trades, contracts that would expire after one year those so called rental players. I suppose given where this team stands with it’s abundance nothing is off the table it would almost seem in it’s hard to make a mistake only in perhaps miscalculations, and bye that i mean holding on to a strong position in the minor league club, be weary of those trades as I’m not concerned about exacting the talent in exchange.
Could probably get Plesac or Civale and Clase from the Guardians for Jarrod Kelennic and Sheffield. And a few nice throw ins
If the M’s are trading Kelenic to the Guardians the only person they would be looking for is Rameriz(Seattle would have to add a lot more to that as well). There are better pitchers available who would not cost Kelenic..
I’d trade Kelenic all day for Pleasac/Clase/Arias. Probably have to have a few nice toss ins though.
Seattle doesn’t need to spend money on pitching.They have a lot of very talented guys in the minors.