In the wild frenzy of free agent signings that preceded the current MLB lockout, the Toronto Blue Jays bolstered both ends of their pitching staff by signing Kevin Gausman for their rotation and Yimi Garcia to the bullpen. Less than 24 hours after the lockout began, it was reported that there would be more spending to come after the lockout. One week after that, another report revealed that the Blue Jays were “very much” in the Corey Seager sweepstakes, before the star shortstop signed with the Rangers for $325MM over 10 years.
The exact size and shape of the team’s offer to Seager isn’t known, but it stands to reason that it had an average annual value of at least $30MM, given that Seager eventually got himself an AAV of $32.5MM from the Rangers. If the Blue Jays were one of the last teams at the bargaining table, they must have at least been in that vicinity.
The possibility of the club having $30MM remaining in their pocketbook isn’t outlandish. Their opening day payroll for 2022 is currently just under $140MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Although that’s already higher than their $135MM opening day figure from this past season, they have been as high as $163MM in recent years. (Past figures from Cot’s Baseball Contracts.) Adding another $30MM to the ledger would get them around $170MM, which would be a franchise record, but just barely, a justifiable move for a team that’s squarely in a competitive window and wants to take another step forward to compete with the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays, after coming just a hair short of the postseason in 2021.
It’s possible that a signing of Seager would have been followed by the Jays subtracting payroll by sending another contract away in a trade, as there was a report of a deal that would have sent Randal Grichuk to the Brewers for Jackie Bradley Jr. But that trade likely would have been close to revenue-neutral, with Grichuk being owed $10.3MM in each of the next two seasons and Bradley getting $9.5MM in 2021 with a $12MM club option for 2023 that comes with an $8MM buyout. Regardless, any revenue-saving plans the Blue Jays had in mind to go along with a Seager deal could also be combined with whatever other moves they make instead.
With the club coming up just short on Seager, how else can they spend that money? Let’s examine some options, keeping in mind that their biggest needs are more pitching and an upgrade at either second or third base.
One Big Infield Splash
If the Jays were willing to consider a big investment on a player like Seager, it seems reasonable to assume that they would consider doing the same for other players with similar skills. On MLBTR’s list of Top 50 Free Agents, there were two players head-and-shoulders above the rest. One of them was Seager, the other was Carlos Correa. Both are 27-year-old star shortstops who were predicted to get contracts of ten years and over $300MM. Seager ended up beating his prediction slightly, with Correa remaining a free agent.
There are some slight differences, however. Broadly speaking, Seager is a better hitter than Correa, but Correa comes out ahead on the defensive side of things. Since the Blue Jays already have Bo Bichette at shortstop, it’s possible they were interested in Seager’s bat and were comfortable with moving him to either second or third base. If Correa were moved off of shortstop, it would detract from his value to some degree. Bichette has previously expressed a willingness to move off of shortstop, but it’s possible that two further years of development and approaching free agency have changed his mind on that topic. Correa would also further cement the Jays as a right-handed heavy team, with Cavan Biggio the only lefty likely to see significant playing time. Perhaps Seager’s left-handed bat gave him an extra layer of appeal that Correa doesn’t have. However, both players are of such a high caliber that the platoon situation likely only makes marginal difference.
There’s also the elephant in the room of Correa’s involvement in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal, but the Blue Jays don’t seem to be bothered too much about that, given that they’ve already signed George Springer, Correa’s former teammate with the Astros, as well as hiring the Astros’ former hitting coach Dave Hudgens to be their bench coach. Some people in the baseball industry predicted Correa to sign with the Tigers because of the potential to reunite with former Astros’ manager A.J. Hinch, but could the same logic apply to Springer and Hudgens in Toronto?
Just behind Correa and Seager on MLBTR’s Top 50 was Freddie Freeman in the number three slot, predicted to get $180MM over six years, exactly $30MM per year. Although many expected Freeman to quickly re-sign in Atlanta on the heels of their World Series triumph, he remains unsigned and has been connected to other teams in rumors, including the Blue Jays.
Freeman would be something of an awkward fit, given that the Blue Jays already have Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at first base. But Freeman is such an elite hitter that it could make it worthwhile to have them share first base and designated hitter duties. It would lessen the ability of the club to use the DH spot for an injured player, like they did with Springer in 2021, but Freeman’s bat is so good that the team would have to consider it. He’s had 11 straight years with a wRC+ of at least 115 and nine straight years of at least 132.
Coming in at number four on MLBTR’s list was Kris Bryant, predicted to get a contract of $160MM over six years, just a bit below Freeman. Bryant may be a notch below Freeman with the bat, but he’s younger and is a much easier fit for the Blue Jays, as he could slot into third base, with a Cavan Biggio and Santiago Espinal platoon then covering second. He could also function as an emergency outfielder, perhaps making it easier for the club to follow through on a Grichuk deal.
One final option for this category is Trevor Story. Although he is also a shortstop, it has recently been reported some scouts in the industry believe he should be moved to second base due to issues with his throwing, as evidenced by his 11 throwing errors this year. The Blue Jays already showed themselves willing to take a similar chance on moving a shortstop to second base with Marcus Semien, which paid off handsomely. If they were to try again with Story, then Biggio and Espinal could cover third base. MLBTR predicted Story to get a contract of $126MM over six years, which is an AAV of $21MM. That’s a notch below the other options mentioned in this section, leaving them some extra cash to upgrade the pitching staff.
Another Big Rotation Add
After losing Robbie Ray to the Mariners and Steven Matz to the Cardinals, the Blue Jays’ rotation was dealt two serious blows. They made one big addition by signing Gausman, joining Jose Berrios, Hyun Jin Ryu and Alek Manoah to form a solid front four. The fifth spot figures to be a competition between Ross Stripling, Nate Pearson and Thomas Hatch, but the team could also add another starter and bump those options into the bullpen or the minors.
The starting pitching market was the most frenzied prior to the lockout, with many of the top and middle-tier arms flying off the board. The highest-ranked starter from MLBTR’s Top 50 that remains unsigned is Carlos Rodon, predicted to get a one-year, $25MM deal. The lefty’s market is difficult to predict due to his uneven 2021. On the one hand, he showed his ace-level upside for the first few months of the year. But on the other hand, shoulder fatigue limited his workload and velocity down the stretch. MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently took a closer look at his market and identified the Blue Jays as one of many potential fits.
Crowd the Outfield
A few weeks ago, it was reported that Japanese outfielder Seiya Suzuki was garnering a great deal of interest from the AL East, with the Red Sox, Yankees and Blue Jays all listed as his most aggressive suitors. The fit for the Blue Jays is a bit awkward at first glance, as they already have four outfielders in George Springer, Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Randal Grichuk. However, Grichuk has already been discussed in some trade scenarios, as mentioned above, which could make the fit possible.
MLBTR predicted that Suzuki would earn a contract of $55MM over five years. Although that works out to $11MM per year, it would also come with a posting fee of just over $10MM, owed to his former team, the Hiroshima Carp. Still, even with that fee, that’s an outlay of about $20MM for this year, leaving the club with some money leftover to address the pitching staff and infield, in addition to whatever return they could get from a Grichuk deal.
Although this path isn’t as smooth as some others, if they’re willing to consider it with Suzuki, perhaps they would consider it with other corner outfielders as well. Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, Jorge Soler, Michael Conforto and Eddie Rosario are all still available, and all were predicted by MLBTR to get between $23MM and $7.5MM per year.
Spread the Money Around
After Rodon, the other starting pitchers on MLBTR’s Top 50 that remain unsigned are Clayton Kershaw, Yusei Kikuchi, Zack Greinke and Danny Duffy. All the rumors around Kershaw seem to indicate he’s deciding between returning to the Dodgers or joining the Rangers, given his connections to the Dallas area. As for Duffy, he was recently revealed to have had surgery and won’t be an option until June. Greinke’s market has been quiet since the offseason began, making it unclear if he even intends to play in 2022.
The Blue Jays were connected to Kikuchi before the lockout, making him seem like a legitimate option. MLBTR predicted a two-year, $20MM contract for the southpaw. Although he reportedly has received three-year offers, the AAV should still be in the $10MM range. If the Jays have $30MM to play with, they could add Kikuchi and still have plenty leftover for an infield move. Going to the tier below Correa, Freeman, Bryant and Story, there are still some intriguing options, such as Kyle Seager and Jonathan Villar.
Villar has already been a Blue Jay once, having been acquired at the 2020 trade deadline. He had a nice campaign for the Mets in 2021, playing mostly at third, but also seeing some time at second and short. He won’t break the bank, with MLBTR predicting a contract of two years, $14MM. Even with signing Kikuchi and Villar, they could be left with over $10MM to throw at the bullpen, maybe even enough to go after Kenley Jansen, who was predicted to get $26MM over two years.
After missing out on the younger Seager, could the Jays go after the elder? Kyle had a bit of a down year at the plate, seemingly selling out for maximum power, as he had the highest strikeout rate of his career but also set a personal best with 33 homers. That production, combined with his good defense, still amounted to 2.5 fWAR, making him a solid option for an everyday third baseman. MLBTR predicted a two-year contract worth $24MM. With a combined Kikuchi and Seager haul, they could still have enough leftover to bring back former Blue Jay Ryan Tepera, predicted to get $12MM over two years.
There are also many trade candidates that could fit into the team’s plans. The Athletics are expected to undergo a fire sale as soon as the lockout concludes, with many of their trade chips making for nice fits on the Jays’ roster. Starting pitchers Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt and Frankie Montas have been often mentioned as some of the most likely players for Oakland to trade, given their increasing salaries and dwindling club control. Manaea and Bassitt are both heading into their final year before free agency, projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $10.2MM and $8.8MM, respectively. Montas has two years of control and is projected for a salary of $5.2MM in 2022. Matt Chapman is another trade candidate of note here, as he could fit nicely at third base for the Jays. He also has two years of team control remaining, with a projected salary of $9.5MM for the upcoming campaign.
The Reds have also been rumored to be exploring trades for some players in similar positions, with pitchers Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle all having two years of team control remaining. Gray will make $10.7MM in 2022 and has a $12.5MM club option for 2023. Castillo is projected to earn an arbitration salary of $7.6MM, with Mahle projected at $5.6MM. Any of those Athletics or Reds could make sense for the Jays and leave them with money to spend elsewhere, although they would all come with the additional cost of whatever players are sent the other way.
It’s widely expected that the ongoing lockout will persist into the new year, getting close to the scheduled start of spring training and maybe even delaying it. Whenever that conclusion finally arrives, there figures to be a short window between the signing of the new CBA and the resumption of games. With still so many free agents left unsigned and so many teams with trade business remaining, it’s expected that this period will be a wild frenzy of hot stove activity, perhaps rivalling or even surpassing what we saw just before the lockout. If the Blue Jays have $30MM to throw around, they could be one of the most noteworthy players in the mix, with a wide variety of paths available to them.
mikevm3
you rascals
iverbure
The entire reason for the jays being interested in Seager was because he is a LH who would bat in the middle of the lineup, that would fit a position they have open. Freeman doesn’t fit as they can’t afford to have a full time DH when they play on concrete half their games.
deweybelongsinthehall
The problem with this story is it’s not $30m. it’s times the number of years if that’s the AAV. In the near future it’s possible but remember, the young studs the team has also want to get paid.
dw007
Re: Seager …. certainly top $$$ was a factor. But in his news conference, both he and Marcus S. mentioned the fit in TX was more of what they wanted for the next 7-10 yrs for their family/ kids. Also, Corey’s $$$ faces no state income tax in TX allowing him to “make more” than he would have in Canada (or US state) for the same contract.
Vmax
concrete! all NFL games are played on concrete.
ajrodz1335
U should do this with the Rays 0 million. (Sad Rays Fan)
LordD99
Wait. There are actual Rays fans? 🙂
Doug Dueck
he said sad Rays fan ( as in singular )
GETBUCKETS
That would be interesting
How to improve the club with $0 payroll addition
padam
The Rays do that every year. It’s why their front office gets recruited heavily – they have a formula and it works.
I think they’d have a better fan base and attendance number if they actually moved to Tampa and built a new stadium. Add that to their front office and it could be very impressive. Apparently it’s something in the water down there too – the Lightning are another one of those teams that’s just good all the time and draft very well.
Yankee Clipper
GetBuckets: No, not really, the Yankees do it every single damn season. Or at least “add” to it. Not sure there’s marked improvement.
SalaryCapMyth
Rays fans have a garbage situation. The location, drive time and traffic are all very prohibitive.
youtu.be/DeGhcezhvW0
That strange little URL is to a youtuber called Urinating Tree. He does sports commenting and analysis and is also pretty funny. He explains very well why Rays fans aren’t to blame for low attendance.
RodBecksBurnerAccount
I went to the Trop a few years ago as I was in town visiting family in Clearwater and I really didn’t see what the big deal was about the stadium. It could be nicer and a better location but I didn’t think the traffic or the stadium was that bad. It is much more difficult to get in and around the Marlins’ stadium.
Stadiums I’ve been to ranked:
1. Fenway
2. Petco (SD)
3. Oracle (SF)
4. Ballpark in Arlington (Ranger’s old stadium; second stadium)
5. Target Field (Minneapolis)
6. Minute Maid (Houston)
7. New Rangers Stadium
8. Kauffman Stadium (KC)
9. Old Busch Stadium
10. Turner Field (ATL)
11. Tropicana Field (TB)
12. Comiskey (CWS)
13. Marlins Park
Chris Stedron
I assume that’s old Comisky. New Comisky has done wonders for itself in the last few years. It’s middle of the pack for me. (I’ve been to all the current parks – 48 total.)
RodBecksBurnerAccount
Comiskey II. It wasn’t long after it opened up that I went. Haven’t been back since.
Chris Stedron
Go back and check out the craft beer lounge behind the RF fence. You don’t want to be there for the whole game, but it’s a great spot for the 5th, 6th, 7th innings where you get some bullpen action before the really high leverage spots in the 8th and 9th.
afsooner02
If you have Texas old stadium that high….the new one will be #1 then…just being a dome is wonderful. The club level is awesome.
Fever Pitch Guy
These are the ones I’ve been to, ranked most to least favorite:
1) Pittsburgh – Beautiful park, good area, very affordable
2) Baltimore – Beautiful park, nice area heading south, affordable
3) Toronto – Spacious, clean, great location, retractable roof
4) Boston – Awful parking, uncomfortable seats, cramped, expensive
5) Cleveland – Beautiful park, decent area, very affordable
6) New Yankee Stadium – Spacious, clean, good location, very expensive
7) Miami – Beautiful park, awful location, parking is limited and expensive
8) St Louis (old) – Nice park, decent area, friendliest people, affordable
9) Philly (new) – Beautiful park, worst fans, nowhere to go in area
10) Tampa – Cool dome, usually empty, in a bad area, very unclean
11) Old Yankee Stadium – Lots of history, cramped, run down
12) Montreal – Visually ugly, great area, best mascot, best cheerleaders
13) Old Shea Stadium – Visually ugly, poor location, run down
14) Cincy (old) – Cookie cutter stadium, friendly fans, affordable
15) Philly (old) – Cookie cutter stadium, worst fans, nowhere to go in area
fox471 Dave
Loved Comiskey I. Great tradition and seats around the diamond were so close to dugouts, one could literally have a conversation with players. Comiskey II was fine but could not match the old stadium.
Fever Pitch Guy
What stadium doesn’t have seats right behind/next to the dugouts?
Perksy
Good list. I’ve only been to a half dozen, but the #1 stadium for me so far is Camden yards. Such a great blend of old and new.
Monkey’s Uncle
I should get my ex-girlfriend in on this idea, she’s great at spending other people’s money.
Fever Pitch Guy
Post of the year! I can relate, I have my own Peg Bundy.
deweybelongsinthehall
At least you can enjoy some bon-bons on the couch if she shares.
AlienBob
If you like the Sugar Baby type, I should introduce you to my ex-wife.
SalaryCapMyth
Ya well my wife..well, she’s pretty awesome so never mind. =))
DonOsbourne
So I think you have to make some decisions about a couple of existing players first.
Is Springer going to be healthy enough to play a whole season?
Secondly, do you feel confidant that someone other than Grichuk can fill-in in CF if Springer is hurt?
If the answer to both questions is yes, then you have to trade Grichuk to a CF needy team first(Marlins, Phillies). Then offer Rodon $35 million over 2 yrs. Take the remainder of the money plus the savings from the Grichuk trade and offer Story a 1 yr deal to play 2B. He can establish himself at new position, get past the Coors Field questions, and reset his value in a stacked lineup.
seamaholic 2
Several flaws here. While Grichuk can handle CF, he’s not gonna impress a “CF needy” team as their answer at the position. They will likely already have someone who’s that bad — either with the bat or the glove, or both as with Grichuk — to line up there. Grichuk is a bad-contract-swap guy. He did play a lot of center last year due to Spring’s absence, but was very mediocre. And he’s paid a lot.
I have a better chance to flap my wings and fly to the moon than a team has to sign Trevor Story on a one year deal. Least of all the Blue Jays. Teams have offered way more than that already. Finally, Rodon’s getting 3 years very likely, and someone may offer 4. He’s in a great position as the only impact starter (other than Kershaw, who isn’t really available) left.
Vmax
He carried the team for two months Image him locking on for four..
jensan
Jays should consider trading Moreno + Gurriel Jr for Ramirez .( net cost to Jays -$5.1 Million for 2022.)
Jays trade Kay + Smith + Warmouth for Trivino + Tony Kemp ( net salary of $4.3 Million).
Jays trade Groshans+ Kloffenstein + Biggio + Palacios for Marte ($8.4 Million)
Sign Pederson for 2/ $6 Million ($3 Million)
Jays trade Grichuk for David Price ($5.66 Million)..
Jays sign Chafin -2/$10 Million ($5 Million)
Reduction of number pre arbitration required by 3 players ($-2.1 Million)
Net Expenditure- for 2022- $29.3 Million.
Jays lose their #1, #3, #6 Prospects + Gurriel + Biggio +Grichuk ( projected MLB WAR-3.7 )
In the above trades & Free Agent Signings the Jays gain a projected WAR for 2022 totaling 14 WAR.
Kemp, Springer, Hernandez, Joc Pederson
Ramirez, Bichette, Marte, Guerrero Jr, Espinal & Lopez
Berrios, Gausman, Ryu, Manoah, Price
Stripling, Richards, Cimber, Chafin, Mayza, Garcia, Trivino, Romano
Jansen, McGuire, Kirk (C/DH)-$164 Million
slimmycito
Nobody wants Grichuk. Tell me a team that wants Randal Grichuk?
Story would be fine and I think he would hit in the Jays lineup, but let’s not forget the last time they acquired a former Colorado shortstop and how that worked out.
Chapman sounds great, give the A’s Pearson+, maybe even Biggio.
If I was playing OOTP, Story, Chapman and a starter would be the move, but I’m not playing OOTP.
DonOsbourne
Right now I’d say the Brewers, Marlins, Phillies and, Yankees could improve their centerfield situation by acquiring Grichuk. The Giants might also like him depending on what other moves they make. Now none of these teams are going to LIKE him at his current price. In order to move him, the Jays are going to have to attach cash or prospects and that becomes the deciding issue, if they value payroll flexibility more than prospect capital, or vis versa.
Dustyslambchops23
Trading both Pearson and Biggio when their values are so low after last years seems like a terrible move.
jensan
Dodgers trades Price for Grichuk
SalaryCapMyth
I just looked at Grichuks glove work at fangraphs in CF and I have to agree with seamaholic on this one. Grichuk is the kind of answer every team already has who doesn’t already have a real CF.
Even teams like the Yankees who don’t have a CF at the moment because they are lost to free agency would probably be better served resigning Brett Gardner. They would get him for less.
Tomahawk Takeover
And a team signing Gardner would get much less production than from Grichuk.
Down with OBP
I think I read somewhere they may have up to $50 million to spend in the right scenarios.
JonCor
Good article and I don’t mean to be rude when I say this, but I don’t think you’re using the word revenue in the right context, as it pertains to the Grichuk situation.
GETBUCKETS
Good pick up
They’re meaning payroll
LordD99
Correct. It’s not revenue he’s discussing.
jbigz12
Yep. Revenue is not used correctly at all.
None of these moves “save revenue” Grichuk’s salary is an expense.
The Jays and every other MLB team want to increase revenue.
averagejoe15
Nit picking on a free site I know, but it’s inaccurate to refer to salary in a trade in terms of ‘revenue.’ Player salaries have no impact on revenue, they are costs. The trade could be cost/salary/payroll saving/neutral but not revenue saving/neutral.
jbigz12
Very odd to see that. Said the same thing.
Definitely isn’t nitpicking. You know what he’s trying to say but it’s not being said correctly. Revenues and expenses are two different sections of an income statement. Definitely should not be mixing those up in a published article.
GETBUCKETS
Fun little-creative article to mess with during the lockout.
Didn’t mention much bullpen pieces aside from Jensen.
I think that was one of their weakest spots last right?
Dustyslambchops23
To start the year yes but the improved it with pieces that are still around this year. Now of course bullpens are so fickle year to year so they should still look to add another high leverage arm but he majority of the heavy lifting is done
solaris602
I think Jansen is a perfect fit in TOR due to his relative affordability and the fact he’s moving to the AL for the first time. I don’t see LA bringing him back even at a discount because he’s shown signs of decline, and he’s been pitching in the NL West for 12 years, and the hitters know what to expect. 2/20 is a fair offer. I would hate to see them pursue Correa because TOR would have too much payroll tied up in 2 exceptional but injury prone stars.
KamKid
If the 13 pitcher limit that was supposed to come into effect actually does this season, you won’t be able to stock up on arms and short bench it. You’d be able to carry 8 relievers. Technically, Romano,Mayza, Cimber have options but seem like locks to be on the opening day roster. Stripling as a swing man makes 4. Garcia, Richards, Borucki are not optionable so that makes 7. Roster Resource says Merryweather still has an option somehow so you could use that to preserve some depth I guess if you want to sign someone like Tepera or whoever. But I kind of think the way to improve the bullpen is to have more flexibility with optionable guys or the Phelps type minor league contracts. I don’t mind the opening day bullpen on paper. Bullpens take a while to shake out and you’ll always need reinforcements. It’s more about who you are calling on in May and June for me.
jakec77
I wonder with the new Covid variant whether that may impact Toronto’s thinking on payroll. There is no team whose revenue is more vulnerable to continued COVID restrictions. What if they find themselves having to play in Dunedin/Buffalo again because of the border?
Dustyslambchops23
Jays just approved a 250 million dollar plan to renovate the dome.
Plus the availability of vaccines and now treatment, it should alleviate any further travel restrictions. It seems dark now but we’ll hopefully be out of this mess soon
SalaryCapMyth
@Dusty. You live in the U.S.? Not being snarky. It’s just that we have a pretty significant anti-vax movement that’s fueling the new variants.
Between the anti-vaxers and the parts of the world that don’t have the vaccine and can’t afford to buy it in significant enough amounts, the world may struggle with Covid for some time.
jbigz12
Being less likely to contract COVID means you’re less likely to carry COVID and give it to others.
You can’t say the COVID vaccine does nothing to help people around you. That’s an idiotic statement. Trying to statistically argue that the COVID vaccine doesn’t help. Obviously it doesn’t come close to eliminating the spread but you can’t argue data. .
Dustyslambchops23
No I live in Toronto, and I appreciate there is anti vaxx everywhere, I’m not sure you can say that it’s leading to variants.
With treatment and vaccines keeping people out of the hospital we are much closer to the end then the beginning but I appreciate after 2 years it’s hard to think too far ahead (again) let’s hope for the best for a normal season of baseball.
BartoloHRball
Dunedin020306,….not really. Vaccinated people are much less likely to catch COVID than unvaxxed. They are also much less likely to spread it. Yes, they still can be infected, but it passes quicker and is less likely to spread than a newly infected unvaccinated person. If they are infected, they should experience lesser symptoms to no symptoms, while unvaxxed are much more likely to experience harsher symptoms. Unvaccinated are 80-90%+ of those hospitalized, and an even higher % on vents.
So while the COVID vaccines are not 100% (in reality no vaccine is 100%), they provide far better protection than no vaccine. Just for the decreased mortality risk it is worth it. Since vaccinated are less likely to acquire and spread compared to unvaxxed, the more vaccinated ppl decrease the risk to unvaccinated, but more importantly…it helps immunocompromised people to be less risky around them.
Why this matters…condoms are 98% effective if used ideally. If you *KNOW* someone is HIV+….and condoms are 90%-95% effective, do you just skip the condom and roll the dice bc they aren’t 100% effective, or do you take that 90%-95% and try to ALSO mitigate from there? Now think how that applies to COVID+ people. The average person would choose condom or abstain, but when it comes to COVID….cog dissonance.
Lastly, you didn’t touch on this…but I thought it important just to address. The BS talking points of “natural immunity” and “strong immune system* really don’t matter because those don’t do crap when a person is exposed sufficiently. Talks of “herd immunity” are also moot because the contagiousness of the various variants puts reaching “herd immunity” much less likely. The current omicron variant is on par w. the measles in regard to level of contagiousness. Taken that data, the reach heard immunity, an estimated 95% (though likely more) of the population would need to be fully vaccinated WITH booster for herd immunity to matter. Given the # of anti-vaxxers out there, we will likely NEVER reach that level. Even if omicron is overtaken by the origin strain or delta variant, the %’s would still be in the high 80s or more.
So yeah….everyone should get vaccinated, STAT.
Dunedin020306
jbigz12 – “Being less likely to contract COVID means you’re less likely to carry COVID and give it to others.”
What are you talking about? The “vaccine: does not make anyone less likely to contract COVID.. It just makes people who do contract it to be less likely to die from it. The “Vaccine” is not even sold as a shield from the virus; it’s being sold as a drug to ameliorate the symptoms from those who are infected by the virus.
Dunedin020306
@ BartoloHRball – You said “Vaccinated people are much less likely to catch COVID than unvaxxed.”.
There is nothing true in that statement. I think you are confusing mortality rates with infection rates. Being vaccinated does not serve as a shield from the virus, it serves as a buffer to the hammer of the symptoms of the virus. If a vaccinated person is infected by the virus, and the effective immunity of the virus does its’ job, then the person might not even exhibit any symptoms, so outwardly they appear uninfected. But whether an infected person is vaccinated or not, they are infected regardless of whether or not they exhibit symptoms. Also, if someone is not exhibiting symptoms, they are less likely to be tested. I know many people who were only tested because they were exhibiting symptoms. No symptoms often = no testing = no positive result (regardless of whether or not they are actually infected).
And your condom analogy is WAY off-base and is a perfect illustration of the problem with your view on what the “vaccine” is and what it isn’t. The “vaccine” is NOT a physical shield like a condom is.
Tomahawk Takeover
SalaryCapMyth. Are you trying to be as wrong as possible or are you just clueless? Not wanting a vaccine doesn’t make you an anti-vaxxer. I’m up to date on all vaccines but I refuse to get this “vaccine” simply because it isn’t a vaccine and it is not safe. Also, if you haven’t noticed, all off the positive tests we’re seeing across sports are from fully vaccinated players. There is a fully vaccinated Buffalo Bill’s player hospitalized currently that isn’t doing well. Maybe stick with your day job and stop trying to play immunologist.
TurnOffTheTV
Bartolo joined the cult of covid.
fivepoundbass
Because HIV and Covid are the same…that ties your entire argument together. The Covid vaccine doesn’t prevent people from getting infected. It is supposed to lessen the symptoms. There is no evidence that shows that it won’t mutate in vaccinated people. Some say the vaccine will shorten the length of time it takes to run its course. I haven’t seen anything on how long it takes to mutate. I believe that is speculation.
I don’t mean to sound like this virus isn’t extremely serious for a lot of people. It is. But the part that we don’t know is how effective natural immunity is. There is not enough data to show how effective natural antibodies are. We have had these vaccines around for far less time, but people speak about them in absolutes.
Most of these “anti-vaxers” that people talk about it aren’t that at all. They are people who already had and beat Covid, that don’t feel they need to vaccinate on top of their body’s natural response system, that has proven, at least once, to work as designed.
fivepoundbass
Well said Dunedin. My employer has been offering asymptomatic testing for those that want to test, since well before the vaccines were made available (for about 16000 people of all age groups). When you start counting people that don’t have it, the infection and positivity rates go way down. And when you find out about people that are infected and don’t know it, the death rates drop as well.
TalkSomeSense
Actually those vaccinated are less likely to contract the virus to begin with and those with a booster are much much less likely so the Vaccine does help more then the person taking it. Yes those vaccinated can still get it and spread it but it’s a much lower percentage.
This does not even touch on the status of unvaccinated disproportionately filling Hospitals and leading to delays in other procedures.
TalkSomeSense
Tomahawk where is the widespread evidence that it is not safe? Seriously after a year where are all those dropping like flies to the Vaccine while 800K plus have died of the Virus.
The number who have died or had serious health issues is miniscule in relation to those unvaccinated who have died. Seriously its time for the misinformation to stop .
TalkSomeSense
You do know there are peer reviewed studies showing those who had a different variant of covid benefit from getting the vaccine and have much higher levels of antibodies then those who recovered and did not get a shot.
A prime example would be the 50 yr old health guri in the US had it in Jan of 2021 and had it a 2nd time in July and ended up on a ventilator and just barely made it.
Tomahawk Takeover
Talk Some Sense, you’re joking, right? Where’s the evidence? All you have to do is do a little research and you’ll find it. You can start by looking as the VAERS reporting. Then you can look at the information provided by the medicare whistleblower. Then you can look at all the cases of blood clots, Guillain-Barre syndrome, heart attacks, strokes, paralysis, arrythmias, death and all of the countless other risks that were provided before the jab was even released. It’s not hard to find if you actually make an attempt other than listening to MSM and searching biased search engines like Google. Ignorance is no excuse at this point.
Tomahawk Takeover
Talk some Sense, peer reviewed science actually shows that natural immunity is at least 5x more effective than the vaccine. You seem to enjoy being wrong.
TalkSomeSense
Tomahawk
If you go by Vaers which every medical association worth being called Legit has said to ignore because of people lying, over stating conditions etc shows how confused and far down the conspiracy rabbit hole you are. I never said natural immunity was useless i said there are tons of Peer reviewed studies that show the Vaccine shot on top of it will add even more projection. Reading comprehension also a problem with you I see.
There is so much evidence in support of the Vaccine now that I seriously question the intelligence of the anti-vax crowd , there is a reason that fringe movements target the weak minded.
Worked for Cambridge Analytics- those easily influenced by inaccurate or half truths.
Tomahawk Takeover
If you have natural immunity, you don’t need a vaccine. For the love of God you’re dull and VAERS is available for a reason. Also, I see you refuse to touch any of the actual facts that I laid out such as the horrendous side effects and death and the fact that all of these athletes are vaxxed and positive. As far as evidence supporting the vaccine, you’ll only find that on MSM and out of the mouth of Fraudci.
TalkSomeSense
Horrendous side effects? Wow hyperbole runs rampant in you lot . There have been billions of doses given out in the past year and the numbers adversely effected is miniscule. No one in the healthcare field nor anyone with half a brain pays any attention to Vaers because there is no scientific protocol in place to vet the reporting. ” My uncles friends cousin had a heart attack 2 weeks after having the vaccine so it must have caused it ” . Seriously it is a joke, Go read the Peer reviewed studies out of Israel on natural immunity, how long it may or may not last and the benefits of a booster on top of that.
Pointless to discuss this further with someone so far down the anti-vax rabbit-hole as to be blind to the truth.
You sir are proof positive why the US has one of the highest per capita number of deaths in the world.
SMH oh well.
StarvingPiratesFan
Since the Jays are spending $250 mil, to reno the stadium, bring back the Hard Rock Cafe, and rename it SkyDome again. Seriously though, offer Rodon $22m plus an option. Having an arm like his in that rotation would be as good or better than Robbie Ray. They proved what was rumored all along, that pitching all along was more their priority, over re-signinng Semien.
Finding a stud close to the numbers he put up will need to be inserted in the middle of that lineup.
jimmertee
Jays need t o things to be a potential World Series winner: they need a healthy #1 rotation guy and a real talented 3B to replace Semien’s production. Who can do those roles in an elite fashion?
Otherwise it is more of the same old for the Jays.
gson
The Guardians have all of what the Jays are looking for (3B, SP, RP’s)…. but it won’t be cheap.. not cheap at all… but could include Grichuk as long as the remaining time on his contract / AAV is “massaged”, appropriately..
hockeyjohn
Gson, I see you are out to destroy the Guardians again. Boy, am I glad that you are not the Cleveland GM.
gson
You have two eyes.. but see nothing.. don’t let that get in your way of removing all doubt.. merry christmas..
vbcbpt
Seriously, why not “offer the farm” to Cleveland to get what we need. Our window is now, we can rebuild the farm once our window passes. Just do it!
Samuel
@ vbcbpt;
I know this is a fantasy article, and that at least 50% of what is obvious in the offseason is proved wrong by June 1, but I’ll play……
Cleveland has so many prospects that they had trouble cutting down to the 40 man roster.
They don’t need any more prospects. They need affordable veterans such as Rameriz and Plesac.
Down with OBP
Every team could use a #1 rotation guy. There are few aces in the league. The Jays rotation is fine. If “More of the same old Jays” is having 91 wins and an insane run differential (5th best in the league), I think any team would take that.
SalaryCapMyth
The Jays have Gausman. If you don’t feel like he’s ace like enough than I challenge you to find the ace in the Braves rotation.
@gson. I don’t know that I understand your trade idea between the Guardians and the Blue Jays but then I get the impression there is some history between you and hockeyjohn so I’ll just ask. What incentive would the Guardians have to pick up Grichuk? Even of the Jays eat a lot of the money he is owed, I still don’t see how he would contribute any real value in a trade. What’s your idea?
gson
@Salary.. Yes.. he follows me around like a lost puppy.. nipping at my heels.. he offers NOTHING but snarks.. The “I’m glad you’re not the GM” posting is about the fourth time he’s done that…. but back to the deal cryptically suggested…
Overview: The Guardians have lost a starting SS, 2B, 3 SP’s, C etc etc in the last season and a half.. They finish 12 games behind an improving CWSox club and just ahead of a hard spending & improving Tigers team. It’s time to do something. The Guardians have one MVP caliber IF’er in Jose Ramiriez (with two years of cost/control remaining), a CF’er they like and a possible middle of the order slugger in Franmill Reyes.. and not much else as far as position players are concerned… The hope by guys like my puppy is that Jose signs a club friendly extension before he becomes a FA. Just like Lindor didn’t.. just like others who professed their loyalty/wanting to stay w/ the Indians have said in the past, and didn’t happen… *(note: cleveland signs some extensions.. but they only cover club control years and perhaps one or two free agent years.. not one of these outrageous 10 year $ 30-40MM / AAV budget busters)
It can happen.. but at AAV’s exceeding $ 30 MM – $ 36 MM, in the humble opinion of this long term Indians, now Guardians fan.. it’s not very likely.. not very likely at all.
Cleveland always has a good starting pitching staff and a reasonably good bullpen.. The minor leagues are filled with very well thought of middle infield talent, some OF’ers, a couple of very young C’s and a LOT of very good arms.. The Guardians just need some ML ready OF talent, a stud catcher, and, perhaps, a RHH 1B if Bobby Bradley continues to show he can’t hit left handed pitching.
My idea is to make a deal with the jays where an SP (Plesac), 3B (Ramirez) and a bullpen arm (Sandlin/Other) are sent to Toronto.. with the returning headliner being Gabriel Moreno as the headliner along with some cash w/ Grichuk, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and two or three other Jays near ML ready or ML ready prospects like Jordan Groshans, Gunnar Hoglund, Nate Pearson, & Otto Lopez, and others.
The replacement for Jose, Gabriel Arias or Nolan Jones, will not produce as well as Jose Ramirez one to one…. that’s a given.. But If anyone wants to realistically look at the 2021 Cleveland squad: the 2 corner OF’ers in 2021 plus Jose Ramirez will NOT out produce Lourdes + Grichuk + Gabriel Arias/Nolan Jones.. Adding back at least half the starts lost by this more mature young starting staff.. and they’ll compete.. perhaps more than they did in 2021.. and absolutely better in 2023.. or maybe not..
But that’s my opinion.. and it’s not held very highly by the “Save Jose Ramirez or the World Comes to an End” club.. hockeypuppy is the club secretary…
Thanks for the question.. hope the response wasn’t too wordy..
Samuel
@ gson;
Know you put a lot of thought into your post, and I respect that. But…..
Start with the last time there was a trade in MLB with 2 teams moving that many players.
As for Cleveland, they may have “lost” SS’s and a 2B, but they got 2 SS’s from the Mets and have 3 just about ready for the majors. Some will move to 2B. Team leadership also counts – look at the positive influence Rameriz has had on Reyes.
Pleasac is a solid, inexpensive controlled stating pitcher. That’s what Cleveland builds their team on. And I’m all in on the importance of a Catcher to a team (the most important player). But Gabriel Moreno has not played a game at the ML level, and it’ll take years for him to mature enough to handle a staff – which the Guardians are built around. Austin Hedges is fine, they just need a 2nd veteran to split time with him.
I’m all with you on Cleveland’s lack of developing position players the past 5-6 years. It’s atrocious. But they’re a small market team and as such they have to develop their own, or find a guy like Reyes that was mishandled and can be coached up to be productive. Why should they trade their strengths for a bad contract OF, and a bunch of Jays prospects that may well not be as good as the ones the Guardians already have?
They have the best manager in MLB in Francona, and his staff is fine. If they can get something out of all the young, controlled SS’s they can play a few at 2B and always trade the excess for young run producers to play 1B and LF.
Winning teams don’t get that way filling holes by trading their established, controlled players. You take Rameriz and Plesac off that team and it will have them down with the Twins in the ALC basement for years.
hockeyjohn
Gson likes to spout his opinion and always asks for thoughts, but then he will put down anyone who has a different viewpoint than him. He is unable to carry on a conversation because he does not respect anyone but himself.
My comments are always based on how the Cleveland organization tends to act. Every trade Cleveland makes tries to balance the needs of today with that of the future. My problem with many of Gson’s trades is he ignores the now. When called on that, he starts with the putdowns.
The reality is nothing is going to happen with any Ramirez move until the new CBA is adopted (will there be a salary floor), the new minority owner is approved and starting to be involved, and any extension talks are totally exhausted. I doubt that all of those things are able tohappen this offseason. Jose Ramirez will start the 2022 season as a Cleveland Guardian. That is the likely reality.
vbcbpt
Where do we sign? I’m all for this!
TBJ12
The Jays have 3 starters who’ve been among the top 30 in baseball over the past 3 seasons. Manoah himself looks like a potential top 30 starter and Pearson provides some legit upside. Add Stripling and Hatch to the mix and it’s among the best rotations in baseball.
A partial list of the players that can fill the Jays needs are listed in the article a above,
How about you tell us who you want the Jays to go after #scouteyes
Dustyslambchops23
Sprinkle it with another bullpen arm, then look to trade for another starter or another infielder. Take on some payroll that way.
I’m still bullish on how in on Seager they really were, I can’t imagine them wanted to take on another big and long contract at this stage
I Like Big Bunts
This lockout can’t end soon enough.
mylegacy
Amen brother!
StarvingPiratesFan
You have to think the owners will cave first, after reeling from all the lost revenue, minus tv money, in 2020 and part of 2021. Realistically,the owners can only get so much broadcast revenue, before they bankrupt even the huge conglomerates. They keep raising ticket prices, expecting the fans to pay for these exorbitant outlandish contracts. Yes I understand the players are entertainers, but they are WAYYY overpaid ( also the owners fault). Giving out stupid contracts like Pujols, and others is moronic. No player is worth more than a four year contract, north of their age 30 season.
A hard minimum salary floor would keep the Cheapskate owners, in smaller markets, from pocketing the revenue sharing. Scott Boras is spot on, with his comments. You have only 10-12 teams each year, who are legitimately in. When you don’t have different teams being competitive it ruins those fan bases, and waters down the excitement, especially in many markets who used to have winners. The players can afford to hold out for as long as they want, with their ching. The owners make nothing,relatively, letting The lockout drag on.
Samuel
@ StarvingPiratesFan;
I love the comments on here…..
You say it’s the owners fault that players are being paid so well. Other people say it’s the owners fault that players aren’t being paid enough. Plus it’s the owners fault that the lockout is dragging on. Meanwhile, all the owners do all day is pinch their secretaries while putting money in their pocket. The players? Walking injustice recipients.
“You have only 10-12 teams each year, who are legitimately in”
Uh, no.
Maybe 5-7 at most.
No different than the NBA or NFL (I don’t follow the NHL).
Because of free agency most teams only peak as legitimate contenders for 3 or so years. The Astros are the exception to the rule, the Rays and Brewers are close to them as well as the Dodgers and Giants – but those 4 will not be legit contenders each year…injuries, players having unexpected bad seasons, etc.
I’ll tell you what a salary floor will do – it will divert money small market teams spend on scouting, technical equipment, coaching, and other tools to ferrate out candidate players that can be had for reasonable salaries and be coached up to be productive in some ways to help their teams win. In short, it will tie the small market teams hands and be a boon to the large market teams.
vbcbpt
Right. Hockey games postponed, Raptors games postponed. No NHL at Olympics. I starve for some hot stove action to relieve myself from the never ending ominous COVID news. For the sake of humanity just re-up the old CBA for another year and deal with this faithfully over the next 11 months. Please.
mylegacy
Jay’s fan here. After many scotch’s (Scottish single malt of course) I’ve decided to sign Freeman (big of me I know). Here’s why…
Freeman can be the regular DH and spell Vlad at 1st. That would help both. Kirk (for ye non Jay’s heathens) he’s a 5 foot nothing 250+ pound prodigy soon to be a rotational piece at DH and C.
Freeman’s all round bat will replace Semien’s. Oh ye AL Easters be afeard – for a dragon be among you! Go jays!
Doug Dueck
@mylegacy – Freeman is better 1B than Vlad and paying him what it will take to acquire him will not justify him only being a DH. I really don’t see Jays going after Freeman unless they are trading Vlad for pitching or whatever else they want. Springer and even just regular rest requires a DH day for a lot of players especially playing on artificial surface for at least half the season.
Shoguneye
Trade Vladdy to pick up Freeman? That’ll fly
bigfatandugly
i think a big part of vladdys output was his comfort at first. he’s a natural there. when that comfort exists confidence soon follows and it showed in his bat.
i’d be very surprised if the jays move a future gold glover at that position off first.
the jays front office have done an excellent job in the last 3 years of finding talent and making them a piece or two away from a legit AL champ and maybe more.
i think they have a few more tricks up their sleeve but i don’t anticipate freeman being one but anything can happen.
duffys cliff
Trevor Story seems like the direction to go here. They just paid Gausman and Berrios, and they need a replacement for Semien. I can’t see them paying what Correa will want, so Story seems to be the way to go.
hoyce
How bad would a grichuk to reds for sonny gray and moustakus? Bad contract swap w at least a useful pitcher to the jays.
HBan22
This is actually a decent trade proposal. I could see Grichuk and prospects for Moustakas and Sonny Gray. The Reds have an opening in RF with Castellanos leaving, and with India breaking out, Moustakas is sort of a man without a position for the Reds currently. Moustakas is also owed more than Grichuk over the next two seasons, and we all know how much the Reds love to dump salary. I guess it would depend on the prospects Toronto was willing to include, but I think this is a solid proposal.
SpendNuttinWinNuttin
Correa shouldn’t get anything over 200m. If that. He cheated, LIED about it, then was given a pass. Thankfully the Pirates refuse to spend money. Any team who signs this clown is shooting themselves in the foot.
TBJ12
If anyone should be signing Correa it’s the Pirates.
StarvingPiratesFan
As long as Nutting is owner, this once proud franchise is nothing but a perpetual dumpster fire. Even if Cherington drafts well, by the time a solid competitive nucleus arrives, you have 3/4 years, tops, before they’ll become overpriced, and shopped. Pirates fans deserve an owner that is willing to spend,Ike the Blue Jays are. When PNC Park was built, they promised, with the new revenue stream from the park, that they would be competitive and spend money. It has been 20 plus years, and the lie continues. Toronto puts it’s $$$, where it’s mouth is. They went and got Semien, albeit for one year, but they go for it, and watch what happens in’22, ’23 and’24.
GarryHarris
I think Isiah Kiner-Felefa would be a perfect fit in TOR. I’m not sure what it would take to make that trade, however.
TOR needs pitching. Scoop up every low cost pitcher they can and hope one or two have comeback years.
TBJ12
The Jays rotation and bullpen look extremely solid as is. I’d love to see them add some depth but a rotation of Berrios, Gausman, Ryu looks pretty damn good. Pearson, Hatch and Stripling could all be capable #5 or better.
StarvingPiratesFan
Isiah Kiner-Felefa would be an ideal replacement for losing Semien. Make that deal with Texas.
Dexxter
Espinal > IKF. Jays shouldn’t trade for anyone who’s not a clear upgrade.
I also don’t think they will lay out any more big contracts. Seager as a young lefty power hitting SS/3B I think was an outlier for them. Doubt they will take the risk of Story for 6 years with Groshans/Orelvis/Moreno on the way.
Kyle Seager makes a lot of sense. Good defender and some lefty power. Seager, a fifth starter like Kikuchi and a bullpen addition like Chafin costs about $30M. This improves the infield, rotation and bullpen without moving any prospects and keeps your future payroll open for extensions.
jim stem
I do think the Reds are in a positive position here. I mean, it’s a shame for their fans that the organization simply can’t decide what direction to take. The three SP mentioned are all quite inexpensive today as well as talented.
If they wanted to, an actual rebuild shouldn’t take long at all. Trading those three pitchers alone could bring a net return of mlb ready players. Lucas Sims, Tejay Antone, their catchers – all of them could bring nice returns.
Armaments216
The Reds already traded their catcher Barnhart to Detroit before the lockout. The aptly named TJ Antone is out for 2022 after surgery. Best fit for the Jays might be Jesse Winker, left-handed LF/DH.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Rodon, Tapera, Chafin. That’s the way you do it.
jensan
Rodon 4/ $72 + Seagar-3/$30 and trading Borucki + Smith + McGuire for Trivino + Tony Kemp..
Jays spend $31 Million. Jays free agent signings replace 2 pre arbitration players salaries reducing the net effect of $29.6 Million of additional salary expenditures.
Brentquigley02
Just wait till the lockout ends and the Blue Jays are ready to spend but they notice $30,000,000 is missing.
HBan22
They should spend the vast majority of that $ on pitching in my opinion. The offense is looking pretty good even without Semien, and they have a ton of good infield prospects. Jordan Groshans will be ready some time in 2022, and they seem willing to give Biggio another shot at 2B duties. Orelvis Martinez will be ready sooner than later too, and will be a star. A nice stopgap 3B like Kyle Seager makes more sense to me than breaking the bank for a Kris Bryant, when the Jays should clearly be prioritizing pitching over offense at this point.
Dustyslambchops23
Agreed, just not much pitching left on the market.
I think they end up spending half of what they got now maybe through a trade and then save a bit and see what their needs are come the deadline
HBan22
True that there’s not much pitching left through free agency. I could see them possibly giving Rodon a big one year deal, if he was willing to take it. Their better course of action at this point may be to try to trade for pitching. The A’s and Reds have several pitchers each available that would be great additions for them (Sonny Gray, Sean Manaea), without having to trade elite prospects. I know there were some Pablo Lopez for Alejandro Kirk/prospects rumors going around for a while, I probably would have jumped on that one if I was the Jays.
stymeedone
I’m guessing you may be under estimating the demand for pitching. Oakland will want near or at MLB talent back, and will get it. If Cincinnati plans to compete at a reduced payroll, they won’t be giving their pitching away as a salary dump.
HBan22
Well to be fair, I did say that the Jays would have to give up some decent prospects to land a decent starting pitcher. But one year of Sean Manaea will not cost them Nate Pearson or Orelvis Martinez. The Jays could absolutely still put an enticing package together without including their top elite guys.
Dorothy_Mantooth
@Stymee – The Reds already dumped Wade Miley…if payroll is that big of a concern there, they may do it again but will ask for young prospects this time around.
bobtillman
Good article. Yet another interesting speculation is whether the Pirates and Orioles will expand their horizons and add Swiss Cheese to the post-game buffet, and the extra cost of doing same.
Digdugler
I cant possibly think of a player who is less likely to return than Villar. Garbage trade, garbage player.
Let's Be Frank
Absolutely right. He essentially walked out on the team in his last go-round.
vbcbpt
Last player on Earth I’d want to see the Jays sign. Awful POS.
slider32
If the Jays can land Seager for third and Schwarber they would have the lefty bats they need. They might still need another front end relief pitcher.
Rsox
Kyle Seager, Carlos Martinez, and Kenley Jansen. A 3B, a 5th starter/swingman and a Closer
Shoguneye
I havent followed CM but his last couple of years have been forgettable. KJ would work but I’ll take a pitching upgrade over a Seager pickup at third
Dexxter
This is what they should be doing. I like Chafin instead of Jansen and Kikuchi instead of Martinez… but the strategy makes sense.
Especially with expanded playoffs being likely. Don’t trade your future to upgrade an already very strong roster. Spread your payroll around and see where you are at the trade deadline.
Rsox
Realistically they could probably add Chafin to the mix and not really go over the $30 million.
I think Kikuchi in the AL East would probably be bad. He’s already Homer prone and just something makes me think a multi-year commitment would backfire.
Martinez definitely needs a change of scenery and a set role. His stuff isn’t terrible and i think Toronto’s coaching staff could get him back where he was a few years ago
Dexxter
You could be right about Kikuchi and Martinez. Someone of this type though is what I think they’ll do.
Maybe a trade for someone like Manaea. Only one year of control but likely don’t have to move one of their top prospects for him.
Spare Tire Dixon
Sign Kyle Seager for 3B (and LH balance)
Sign Eddie Rosario for corner OF (and LH balance)
See about a SP from Oakland or Cincy. Include some combo of Biggio, C prospect, Pearson, and/or Grichuk if possible
C Jansen
1B Guerrero
2B Espinal
SS Bichette
3B Seager
LF Gurriel
CF Springer
RF Rosario
DH Hernandez
Akakak
Compared to signing a semien or Correa, Kyle seager and Rosario seem anti climactic and a bit cheap-o, but frankly, they would balance out the lineup well and seem like winning moves. Trade for a lefty starter and we’d be golden.
Spare Tire Dixon
Another option:
– Sign a LH bat. Include one of their current OF and prospects in a deal for Hader to solidify the bullpen. Milwaukee needs bats in a bad way
KamKid
In a post season interview, Atkins made it clear that the biggest area they want to improve on is lineup balance. He referred to that being one of the big reasons why they weren’t good in leverage. He stated they were 19th in the league in high leverage situations. I’m not sure what exact metric he was referring to, but that sounds about right. Looking at the Win Probability stats shows they were only 9th in WPA but 4th in WPA/LI and dead last in the league in “clutch”, suggesting they could really knock around the Ryan Weber types but struggled against the high leverage bullpen arms who could attack with their strengths that matched up well against the lineup that often rolled out one after the other of similar types of hitters. Atkins suggested that they need to make opposing managers make tougher decisions and force opposing pitchers to have to do something different. He stated that a return to form from Biggio is an important part of that balance they are after. So Corey Seager fits that bill, but with him off the board, the pivot isn’t Story, Correa or Bryant. At the high end, it’s Freeman even though it’s a really awkward defensive fit. Conforto makes a ton of sense.
Shoguneye
re: Biggio return to form. Does he mean to their best case scenario form or his real capabilities? Even with his mediocre 2nd base D he gives away too many at bats. He’s young and might have some upside but there’s not a decent enough track record to predict future performance.
KamKid
I don’t think Atkins actually said “a return to form” in that interview. I extrapolated that meaning. He was much more enthusiastic about Biggio being a part of that solution. I absolutely don’t think Biggio gives away at bats. I think he sometimes needs to adjust his expectations as to what the best pitches to hit in an at bat are, but he does make the opposing pitcher work for the out. Biggio has more good than bad on his resume, but recency bias really dominates the discussion around him.
At any rate, whether you think Biggio is good or not, the skill set that is his route to being good is what Atkins was referring to as their big need.
Edp007
A pleasure being a fan of a team run by competent management. No one is perfect.
Akakak
I like the Rosario – Seaver combo mentioned above, but for fun, my go for broke alternative would:
Trade Pearson, Kirk and 4 of our 4th through 15th ranked prospects for matt Chapman and Sean Manaea ( big lefty horse).
I’d still sign Seager and have him dh half the time and play third and first the other half.
Chapman is always beat up and if we could keep him fresh by dh-Ing once or twice a week, it might help unleash some of his offensive potential.
C: janssen
1b vlad
2b biggio
Ss bichette
3b chapman
Lf gurriel
Cf springer
Rf hernandez
Dh seager
With Espinol and grichuk heading up the bench, we’re deep everywhere.
Ps: I really really really want the jays to trade for Sean manaea— tones of upside in this guy
Dustyslambchops23
Kirk, Pearson and 4 top 15 prospects??
Akakak
Pearson is destined for the bullpen and two of those prospects will be from the back end of that list — Chapman and manaea come with control and won’t be had cheap.
I think that’s realistically the price for those two, maybe 3 guys from the 4 – 15 range and a couple of a ball lottery tickets, but essentially that’s the same value.
Also don’t see a world where shat-kins trades that much draft capital so it’s a mute point.
Mostly just having fun as I think signing seager as a stopgap while we wait on Martinez and groshans is the right play.
Would love to see us net manaea though!
Akakak
Hmm never mind, manaea only has one year left on his deal, so it would actually be quite a bit less!
Dorothy_Mantooth
@Akakak – You’re actually still not that far off from what Oakland would be looking for if they packaged both Chapman & Manaea. Maybe you drop off (1) of the 4-15 prospects, but Oakland will be asking for a ton to deal Chapman and Manea would cost at least one Top 15 prospect for 1 year, if not more. The only question is if Oakland would be interested in Kirk since they already have an excellent young catcher in Sean Murphy. But you are definitely in the ballpark for what Oakland will be asking for this package of players.
A'sfaninLondonUK
thumbs up @Dorothy @ akakak above….
As an A’s fan I’m pretty sure we’d bite. Chapman has two years of control, Manaea (or Bassitt) have one left. Sean Murphy will need a back up (which is why we acquired Yan Gomes mid season 2021) so a major league ready cost controlled rookie allows the A’s to deal (the very good) Murphy in – say – one or two years. Given how thin on the ground quality catching is at the moment I’d be banking all the decent catching prospects I could.
Similarly (and it’s a point I’ve made repeatedly on other threads) the A’s will want prospects not cast-offs – cost controlled for six years (CBA willing) – the above scenario would save approaching $20 million in payroll.
Merry Christmas and make those stocking fillers future all stars please….
Shoguneye
Mea culpa accepted. That was the definition of giving away the farm 🙂
kellyoubreisgod
The Blue Jays taking the Athletics star 3rd baseman via trade? Where have I seen this?
Braves Butt-Head
I wish the title of this article would have been.
Let’s Spend $30MM Of The Blue Jays’ Money……..
ON HOOKERS AND COCAINE.
retire21
Good idea BB-H! And we should waste some of it too.
Shoguneye
The kids will be staying home that game and I won’t be reading between the lines 🙂
lumber and lighting
Kikuchi & Jensen.They need pitching more then Bryant.
Mystery Team
Actually the Blue Jays won the Corey Seager “sweepstakes” by not being the team that spends over $300 million on an average bat. Can we please stop talking about him like he’s a great player. If he was so great the Dodgers would have re-signed him they have the money and don’t mind spending it. They knew what they were doing when they traded for Trea Turner who by the way is worth the type of contract Seager got.
BuJoBi
@mystery
F**& yeah we got a great deal on Corey Seager, we won’t have to carry a 300 million contract for a guy to play a average of 100 games a year at best.
JoeBrady
Corey Seager “sweepstakes” by not being the team that spends over $300 million on an average bat.
==================================
If you think that Seager is overpaid, I agree 100%.
But when you call Seager ‘an average bat’, you sound like someone that knows nothing about baseball. His wRC+ over the past 4 years ranks #30. At a level of 600+ over the past two years, he ranks #6.
I question a couple of things on his resume, but to call someone an average bat, when he has an OPS+ of .926 over the past two seasons, is beyond ridiculous.
Moonlight Graham
.241/.310/.442
This is Trevor Story’s slash line away from Colorado. Even factoring for the difficulty adjusting from mile-high Coors Field one day to sea-level games the next day, Story will not have a superstar impact. He’s maybe more of a Chris Taylor. Which is fine. But he won’t be worth what he’ll ultimately sign for.
Trading for Jose Ramirez will be costly (in terms of prospect capital) but worth it.
Kyle Seager’s plummeting average concerns me, but I could see him thriving in Toronto’s deep lineup.
Otherwise, just let Espinal handle third, at least until someone like Groshans forces his way into the lineup. Espinal is really solid with the glove, and he gets on base.
In addition to whatever 3B solution they come up with… If they sign Kenley Jansen and trade for Sonny Gray, they’re the team to beat in the East.
Akakak
Ya agreed. As attractive as all the high end free agent options are I think the jays should try to do something similar to what the golden state warriors did last off season and try to round out the roster:
A 4/5th of’er who can play cf
Trade for a lefty starter like sonny gray or manaea
Just sign seager and leave room for Martinez and groshans
An late inning flame thrower
A short term lefty power bat like Eddie Rosario
Veteran Depth is the way to go.
whyhayzee
I have to believe blah blah blah blah blah blah shortstop blah blah blah blah. And most of blah blah blah blah blah for some time now. In terms of blah blah blah blah OPS blah blah blah for next year. But most importantly blah blah blah blah blah blah postseason blah blah blah blah blah blah statically speaking of course. For right now blah blah blah blah blah blah blah defensively and blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah the bullpen. So there you have it.
The Toronto Blah Jays.
Merry Christmas.
Best Screenname Ever
“intriguing options, such as Kyle Seager and Jonathan Villar.”
On behalf of Red Sox fans everywhere, a warm welcome to “intriguing option” Jonathon Villar to the Toronto roster.
kodion
Villar wasn’t as useful as a lump of coal the last time he was in Toronto.
In that role, he’s a better fit in Boston
Skeptical
Typical response: throw money at the problem. Doesn’t matter one’s politics, just throw money. (Political party only determines what problems you throw money at.). Don’t think on how to solve the problem creatively, just throw lots of money at the problem.
TennVol
Interesting fill the gap work while baseball is in a dead period that can spark comments both interesting and head scratching. I thought on this hypothetical scenario and came up with some thoughts that some will like and others not because that is the nature of humanity. Lets say that Toronto is all in right now. Fairly easy assumption due to the last two years of performance and the team composition and what GMs are saying. Most people would agree that starting pitching and elite relief pitchers wins championships and right now what the Jays have is good to very good, but, not great. The biggest game changer for Toronto that would cost them nothing but money and deepen their rotation is Rodon. Dominant before he was hurt but is he healthy? If so, then he can take their rotation to another level. A starting 5 of Gausman, Rodon, Berrios, Ryu, and Manoah would be dominant and give the Jays a chance in every game. If your #5 starter is Ryu or Manoah, you might have a pretty strong staff.
That puts Pearson in as long relief and spot starter for the year to keep him healthy and try and get him 100-120 innings, which really is his max for this year anyway. A 7-person bullpen of Pearson, Cimber, Garcia, Romano, Richards, Mayza, Borrucki, and if you carry 8 you add one of Stripling/Logue/Snead/Saucedo etc on your 40 man and that is a very good bullpen. What would it cost? Most likely a 3 year/75M contract with opt outs for Rodon after first year and a mutual opt out in year 3. You can throw in performance measures to get to that 25M or above that 25M annually depending on how confident you are in his health. What about 2nd base and 3rd base that many are debating. Maybe you start out the year with Biggio at 2B, Espinal as your primary infield sub rotating through positions and playing 4-5 days a week. At 3rd base, I try and sign Kyle Seager to a 1yr contract for a base of 12M with performance objectives that he can reach for an additional 6M or more and give our key prospects a year to develop and hopefully be knocking loudly on the door for 23. Sorry for the long thoughts, but that’s how I would approach the team as a GM leading into the 22 season. Thanks for reading.
AlienBob
@frank
The premise for the article was a limit of $30M in additional spending. You blew $25M on Rodon and $12-18M on Seager. The team payroll is now $175+M before you pay all of the arbitration eligible guys. That is about $90M just for the pitching staff. It is easy when the sky is the limit.
Best Screenname Ever
He thought it was $30MM a month.
jaysfansince1977
How is it at 175 Mil before paying arbitration eligible players? every projected payroll includes projected Arbitration dollars, the only changes likely would be extensions to say Teo. The estimation right now is that the Jays are 50.6 Mil shy of the once existing Luxury tax or total luxury tax payroll of 160 Mil that includes estimated Arbitration figures. (Numbers via Spotrac)
Samuel
@ frankw;
So Rondon is the answer?
The guy had 6 unimpressive years with some hot streaks mixed in. He has a great 1/2 of 2021 before he has a major injury (very possibly by overextending something as he was priming for his walk year). But because of the 1/2 year he’s now worth $20m-plus a year for 2-3 years? Really?
Every offseason the answer for all teams is to pay whatever they have to for last years hot FA’s.
The White Sox had the guy for 7 years. They didn’t extend him a QO. Because they’re “cheap”? I don’t think so. I think they know him better than anyone, and were afraid he’d take the $19m.
Sox are spending fine. They can do much better using that $19m elsewhere.
One would think you guys would have learned from Kirby Yates.
tdotjays
Always wondered if we can move out Grichuk’s contract for Charlie Blackmon. Both very bad contracts but Charlie’s bat will play in the Jay’s lineup unlike Grichuk, a left handed, contact focused bat. Both have two years remaining. If the Jays can somehow also pick up Ryan McMahon in this deal while keep the top prospects, it really kills two birds with one stone.
Out
Grichuk –> -$10.3 million
In
Blackmon –> +$21 million
McMahon –> +$5 million
Net increase in payroll = $15.7 million
Use the the remaining $14/$15 million to get a starter and a reliever. In case of injuries, keep the premium prospects for a mid season trade targetting a need.
jensan
Spending $30 Million
Free Agent Signing- : Rodon -3/$55 Million. ($18 M)
Free Agent Signing – Chacin-3/$15 Million ($5 M)
Trade #1: Jose Ramirez + Reyes . For
Moreno + Pearson + Hernandez ( net $3 Million)
Trade #2 : Tony Kemp + Lou Trivino for Smith + Van Eyk ( net $5 Million)
Removal of 2 pre arbitration slots -$1.4 Million
Less than $30 Million spent ($29.6 M).
jensan
Second Choice of $30 Million Spent
Kikushi (SP) 3-$33 Million ( $11 Million)
Sign Suzuki -5/$55 Million ($11 Million)
Sign Seagar 3/$30 Million ($10 Million)
Less 3 slots for pre arbitration players -$2.1 Million
In the alternative
Sign Kikushi -3/$33 Million ($11 Million)
Sign Chacin -3/$15 Million ($5 Million)
Trade #1 – Ramirez + Framill Reyes for Moreno + Hernandez + Pearson ($3 Million)
Trade #2 – Groshans + Biggio + McGuire + Hatch for Marte ( $6.3 Million)
Trade #4 – Lopez + Borucki + Thornton for Tony Kemp + Trivino ($ 4.1 Million)
Akakak
Really don’t want the jays to trade for Jose Ramirez, he doesn’t look like he’ll age well, think it would be a big mistake for them to end up paying him 30+ million. Year.
If I’m trading the kind of capital it would take to get Ramirez I would much rather them target ketel marte and just sign seager. They could then shop gurriel in a package for a left handed starter.