Bryce Harper gave the Phillies exactly the type of season they hoped for when they signed him to the team’s first $300MM+ deal. Unfortunately, he couldn’t pitch the ninth inning (or the eighth inning), and the Phillies fell short of true contention yet again.
Guaranteed Contract
- Bryce Harper, OF: $263MM through 2031
- Zack Wheeler, RHP: $74MM through 2024
- J.T. Realmuto, C: $95.5MM through 2025
- Jean Segura, 2B:$15.485MM through 2022 (includes $1MM buyout of $17MM club option for 2023)
- Didi Gregorius, SS: $15.25MM in 2022
- Aaron Nola, RHP: $19.75MM in 2022 (includes $4.25MM buyout of $16MM club option for 2023)
- Kyle Gibson, RHP: $7.6MM in 2022
- Scott Kingery, IF/OF: $15.5MM through 2023 (includes $1MM buyout of $13MM team option for 2024)
- 2022 commitments: $130.7MM
- Total long-term commitments: $506MM
Projected Salaries For Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Zach Eflin, RHP: $6.0MM
- Rhys Hoskins, 1B: $7.6MM
- Jose Alvarado, LHP: $1.9MM
- Seranthony Dominguez, RHP: $800K
- Roman Quinn, OF: $700K
Option Decisions
- Andrew McCutchen, OF: Team declined $15MM option in favor of $3MM buyout
- Odubel Herrera, OF: Team declined $11.5MM option in favor of $2.5MM buyout
Free Agents
- McCutchen, Herrera, Freddy Galvis, Brad Miller, Ronald Torreyes, Hector Neris, Travis Jankowski, Archie Bradley, Ian Kennedy, Matt Moore, Chase Anderson, Cam Bedrosian, Brandon Kintzler, Matt Joyce, Andrew Knapp, Ramon Rosso, J.D. Hammer
The Phillies did it: they finished with a better than .500 record. The Bryce Harper era began on the heels of an 80-82 season in 2018, but before the ink was dry, a new era was supposed to have begun in Philadelphia. In the third season of the Harper era, the Phillies finally reversed that record, finished 82-80 and in second place, their first winning season since 2011. It only took three years and an MVP season out of Harper to get them there.
And while it’s nice to be a winning team – well-deserving of a pat on the back – the Phillies fell short of true contention. Instead, Harper watched from home as a division rival won the World Series for the second time in the three years. That has to smart.
Still, there’s no revelation coming to Philadelphia. In terms of strategy, it’s likely to be the same game script for the Phillies moving forward, though they’ll shuffle the cards and hope for a different result. President of Baseball Ops Dave Dombrowski is a fairly well-known commodity throughout the league, so if there’s a wrinkle coming in Philly’s team-building strategy, it might have to come from GM Sam Fuld.
The former outfielder has been with the Phillies for years, but his ascension to Dombrowski’s top lieutenant is less than a year old. As Grima Wormtongue to Dombrowski’s King Théoden, Fuld’s analytical approach should have taken root by now, but the organizational philosophy still seems relatively straight-forward: acquire players to help this team win today.
Looking back to Philly’s deadline moves, dealing five years of control over former top prospect Spencer Howard for a year and a half of Kyle Gibson is an old-school deadline add, though the inclusion of 23-year-old Hans Crouse hints at more nuanced thinking. That said, Crouse made two starts in the Majors after his arrival, so the Phils clearly see him as an option for innings in 2022.
The focus of the front office is putting a winning team on the field ASAP, and in this way, the Phillies are a breath of fresh air in an era popularized by “cute” front offices, constantly balancing short-term value with long-term flexibility. The Phillies may seem to be working with blunter instruments at times, but what sets the apart as an organization right now is that they don’t mind if everyone knows how badly they want to win.
In the dugout, there aren’t nearly as many tea leaves to read. Manager Joe Girardi needs to win baseball games. With whatever 26-and-40-man roster he has at his disposal come opening day, he needs to win games.
Since Charlie Manuel’s departure midway through the 2013 season, managers haven’t stayed overlong in Philadelphia. Each of Ryne Sandberg (278 games, .428 W-L%), Pete Mackanin (412 games, .422 W-L%), or newly-crowned NL Manager of the Year Gabe Kapler (324 games, .497 W-L%) lost their caps in relatively short order. Girardi (222 games, .495 W-L%) may be nearing a tipping point as well.
Girardi isn’t all that close to eclipsing his predecessors’ raw totals in terms of games managed, but if Girardi can make it through 2022, he’ll be the first to last three full seasons since Manuel. Getting sacked before the end of next season is hardly a fait accompli for Girardi, though his disappointing tenure has coincided with a green-lit era of full-go contention for the front office. Needless to say, expectations are high. Don’t be surprised to see Girardi as a high draft pick in your office’s first manager fired pool.
So what do Dombrowski and Fuld need to put Girardi in position to keep his job? The roster is tough to analyze, because in some regards, 2021 went exactly as planned. Harper won his second MVP award after slashing .309/.429/.615 with a league-leading 42 doubles, 35 home runs, 101 runs scored, and a robust 170 wRC+. Zack Wheeler led the Majors with 213 1/3 innings pitched, he was second among hurlers with 7.3 fWAR, and his 2.78 ERA/2.59 FIP were among the best marks in the game. He faced more batters than any other pitcher in the NL, and he struck out more of them (247) than any other pitcher in the NL. He finished second in voting for NL Cy Young.
If baseball were a two-man game, the Phillies might be the champs. Unfortunately, Harper and Wheeler’s outlandish success in 2021 is as much a cause for skepticism as it is optimism. After all, even with those stellar campaigns, the Phillies barely broke an even record. Harper and Wheeler should continue to be good, but it’s not fair to expect MVP and Cy Young seasons every year. That said, the duo forms a pretty solid foundation.
You can add J.T. Realmuto and Aaron Nola to that solid core. Nola tossed 180 innings, and though his bottom-line run-prevention numbers were sub-optimal (4.63 ERA), his 3.37 FIP, 29.8 percent strikeout rate, and 5.2 percent walk rate fall in line with career expectations and suggest Nola continues to be a solid front-of-the-rotation arm.
In the first year of his new five-year contract, Realmuto posted 3.5 rWAR and played his role as Harper’s running mate to perfection. He was a little nicked-up down the stretch, forcing a tad more playing time for Andrew Knapp and Rafael Marchan, but he still managed to play in 134 games and step to the plate 537 times. The catchers’ room already looks a little different with Garrett Stubbs and Donny Sands joining Realmuto and Marchan, but the bottom line here is that so long as Realmuto stays healthy, the Phillies ought to be a top-10 team in cacher fWAR again (they were 8th by fWAR in 2021).
At the risk of turning this into a bit of a ho-down, let’s keep two-stepping through the roster, where Rhys Hoskins and Kyle Gibson appear next. Hoskins and Gibson aren’t nearly the talents of the names above, but they ought to be solid contributors to a contending team.
Hoskins’ footspeed and defensive ability make him a limited player, but if he’s healthy, his bat belongs in the middle of the order. He is a career 122 wRC+ bat coming off a .247/.334/.530 batting line across 443 plate appearances. His peripherals are remarkably steady, even if his walk rate did fall a touch to a career-low 10.6% in 2021. Hoskins should plan to inch that number even a tad closer to his 14.3% career walk rate and let his power do the rest. As a designated hitter, he’s a grand option, but even wearing his first baseman’s glove, Hoskins figured to continue to be a 2-2.5 fWAR player. In brief, there’s nothing wrong with Hoskins’ roster spot.
If Hoskins is a bronze level bat, then Gibson is more-or-less the rotation equivalent. Where Hoskins brings power to the plate, Gibson’s value proposition is an uncanny ability to keep the ball on the ground. His 51.7% groundball rate in 2021 was right near his career average of 51.5% – well above the 41.2% league average mark. Keeping the ball on the ground helps Gibson keep the ball in the yard, which Gibson accomplished at rates he hadn’t hit since his late-twenties (0.84 HR/9, 11.1% HR/FB). Gibson’s 3.0 fWAR was the best mark of his career, and his 3.71 ERA/3.87 FIP were close.
Beyond worm killing, Gibson’s calling card has been his reliability. A starter that takes the ball every five turns will start about 20% of his team’s games, and Gibson’s never started less than 15% of his. He’s a textbook first division number four starter, even entering his age-34 season.
One problem in team-building, of course, is asking players to move up a rung. If Gibson is your best starter, as he was with the Rangers last year, that’s not going to be a very good team. And if he’s your number three, as he was with the Phillies, that’s probably an average-ish team. That’s a simplistic take, as there are many ways to build a winning club, but the point here is a broader one about the depth of recent Phillies’ ballclubs: they don’t have it, and they need it. The six players above get a lot of guff for this Philly club, but they aren’t the problem. If anything, reliance on this sextet is the problem.
Bottom line, the Phillies have holes to fill, and they don’t have the talent pipeline to do so internally. So where to begin? The obvious place is the bullpen, which was a disaster: 27th with 1.1 fWAR, 25th with a 4.60 ERA, 27th with a 4.61 FIP, 21st with 36 saves, and of course, ripped from the headlines, tied with the Nats for the most blown saves in the game with 34. The bullpen was bad. Or rather, the bullpen pitched poorly. But bullpens are fickle, and they’re easier to turn around year-to-year than any other aspect of a roster.
So let’s start with fixing the offense, which should be a more urgent priority for Dombrowski. They need a centerfielder, and after declining McCutchen’s option, they need a left fielder as well. They could, conceivably, take the field on opening day with Alec Bohm and Didi Gregorius on the left side of the infield, but based on their 2021 production alone – ignoring their prospect pedigree and contract, respectively – both should be replaced. That’s half of the starting lineup that could use an upgrade. And yet, the Phillies remained one of the most inactive teams in the game prior to the roster freeze.
Centerfield remains the biggest hole on the Philadelphia roster, no less so after declining their option on Odubel Herrera, who led the team with 104 games in center last year. Herrera rebounded from his long layoff relatively well, posting 1.8 rWAR/1.1 fWAR in 492 plate appearances. He walks at a below-average rate (5.9%) and he puts the ball in play more often than most (15.9% strikeout rate), but that contact had little pop behind it in 2021 as Herrera managed just a .156 ISO. He didn’t embarrass himself out there, but he didn’t add much value for a Philly squad that needs bit of production it can get.
They need to turn centerfield into a better-than average spot, and there aren’t a plethora of options available. Mickey Moniak and Adam Haseley would be penciled in as the starters in center and left, respectively, though the Phils probably want both coming off the bench in 2022. ’
That means scouring the market, where there aren’t lot of true centerfielders available. Starling Marte would be option A in free agency, had he not signed with the rival Mets, and Byron Buxton is the highest-ceiling potential trade target, had he not signed an extension with the Twins. They might check in with Oakland about their available position players, whether that be Ramon Laureano for center or Matt Chapman for third.
As for the bullpen, it already looks a little different than at the end of last season. Hector Neris signed a two-year deal with the Astros, while Corey Knebel has joined the Phillies on a one-year deal. Knebel will be a closing option for Girardi. Jose Alvarado from the left side should also get plenty of high leverage opportunities. They claimed southpaw Ryan Sherriff off waivers from the Rays as well. Sherriff has been seen spotty action for the Cardinals and Rays, but he’s never spent a full season on the Major League roster.
The Phillies have a lot of work to do. They signed Johan Camargo just before the lockout, and while Camargo adds valuable versatility, he hasn’t been productive at the plate since 2018. He can be a part of the bench, but he’s not a solution for the left side of the infield. Nor does he solve the problems in the outfield. Nor will he close games. At this stage, however, it’s important to remember that the addition of Camargo and Knebel represent the beginning of the Phillies’ offseason, not the end of it.
true
I see Roman Quinn was listed on for a projected salary of 700K. Last I heard he was DFA’d right before the lockout to make room for the Phillies new project Camargo.
The Phillies need outfielders but they want Moniak off the bench? I’ve been out of touch on some prospects for awhile but why would they want Moniak in a bench role? I thought he was one of the best prospects. Wasn’t he the #1 pick a few years ago?
He’s been unable to adjust to major-league pitching.
I didn’t know he had ever been in the majors. When did the Phillies call him up?
did he ever adjust to minor league pitching? ich no think so.
Major and minor dude flopped immediately
I don’t understand why some teams never understand the value of defense, Phillies angels and Mets consistently awful defensive teams and fall short of expectations every year. All these teams have large Gaps in between pitchers peripheral stats and the teams bottoms line runs allowed.
You’re totally right, and sorry about your dad. In the Phillies case, a series of unfortunate and unlikely events lead to the defensive demise. Scott Kingery falling apart. Adam Haseley rightfully needing time off. Herrera’s domestic abuse issues. Quinn’s injuries. Moniak’s failure to develop. Every team can expect a few of these things to happen, but for all of them to happen seems unthinkable. People point to the Phillies spending as if that’s causing problems, but that’s not the issue. It’s decades of bad development and scouting.
Ok I’m not normally a nitpicker but what does “that has to smart” mean?
tstats,
It’s an old school phrase that means that something hurts or stings. So in the context of the article, he is saying that Harper had to feel pretty crappy not making it to the postseason despite having one of best seasons of his career.
Huh I didn’t know that, thank you!
Anytime!
That has to hurt.
You’re not alone. I said that phrase to someone last week and they looked at me like I had antlers coming out of my head.
I’m just here for the Lord of the Rings references.
And this one didn’t even make sense? Love the idea to try to include but this analogy is suggesting Sam Fuld is trying to ultimately destroy the Phillies from within at the behest of an all powerful wizard…
You never know…
Eomer would have been a better choice to pair with Theoden King; if you want to stay on the dark side with Grima Wormtoungue, pair him with Saruman.. Or perhaps choose Samwise (!) Gamgee and Frodo Baggins. Given that Sam Fuld will be doing the official horse trading, how about Shadowfax and Gandalf?
“As Grima Wormtongue to Dombrowski’s King Théoden…” LOTR references are great. Except when they aren’t.
I wonder if Harper would have been the it-factor to get the Giants past the Dodgers and into another championship last year. I was hoping they’d land him during the Harper sweepstakes, but not for the ridiculous length he signed with the Phillies. I wish Harper many more years of prime baseball, but the Phils are going to be eating a lot of money in that deal.
As much as I despise Bryce Harper, you definitely can’t argue that he is one of the best players in the game. That said I would never trade Aaron Judge for him. Judge will definitely be cheaper to lock up to an extension. I think Judge gets 7 years.
What do you think he gets total $ ? With those 7 years
3 years he shouldn’t.
He def has seasons where he’s one of the best. He also has seasons where he’s very average.
Please point out the average seasons to me. Haven’t seen them yet.
By OPS+ standards Harper has not had even one season of being average.
2014, 2016, 2018 and 2020. Average WAR 1.5. An average MLB full-time position player is worth about 2 WAR.
Again, people thinking WAR is the be all and end all.
Harper is talented but the Nationals never won a single postseason series with him. The same goes for Trout with the Angels. You’re better off filling multiple needs with good players than spending such a ridiculous amount of money on one superstar player. The Mets have experienced this same issue…but they would probably be better off just relocating.
Despise? Strong words. Excessively so, I think. He’s a baseball player…
@Scottn59c With all the recent signings, the Harper deal looks like an absolute steal, and I bet a lot of teams regret not pulling the trigger. 25 AAV for those numbers is a bargain even if the final few years are bad.
World Series Champions live forever, while those on the porch tend to stay on the porch.
Not a Phillies fan, but it would be a bit sad if, after making that commitment to spend the rest of his career in Philadelphia, a front office flush with cash is too incompetent to surround him with a winning roster.
Happens all the time to us in Seattle: Felix Hernandez and Kyle Seager never even made the playoffs.
Final few seasons? Sure, if you define ‘few’ as something like 6 or 7?
He’s only 29 years old. I think 6 or 7 is a bit of an exaggeration, especially seeing how 25MM AAV will likely be league average at the current rate of FA signings.
He was such an “it factor” in Philly huh. Good players aren’t always good teammates.
He was actually. He legit carried the team for extended stretches. That is the legitimate definition of the ‘It’ factor. His presence on this team changes the make up of most games.
let’s not forget that he was remarkably average in the first half of the season. he was only ‘it’ if he was playing tag and got caught standing around looking at the grass, which kind of describes how well he plays right field.
Wrong. He was great from the start of the season. Slumped a bit after getting pegged in the face, but picked it up again. His defense was fine too. People just make up their own opinions of this guy and ignore reality.
Haven’t we noticed that signing the elite players of the game tends to tac on negative value seasons toward the end? Its
expected and built in. Harpers contract isn’t even among the more friendly compared to others. His AAV doesn’t even reach $30m.
“As Grima Wormtongue to Dombrowski’s King Théoden, Fuld’s analytical approach should have taken root by now.” Two things:
1) Dang, that is a sick burn. As a LOTR fan, I greatly appreciate it
2) NERRRRRRD!
Thank you for clearing that up. I honestly had no idea who those people were and thought I missed a history lesson at some point.
TC your references are always out of the box and lights out awesome!
is it just me, or the whole “pat on the back” for improving 4 games in 3 years sounded a little (a lot) condescending?
It very well might be intentional
Yes the entire article was condescending.
I just skimmed the article after the way it started. Very condescending. Obviously baseball writers can be fans of baseball teams, but temper the snide comments of teams you don’t like in these type of review/preview articles. It’s not an opinion column. This goes beyond spelling/grammar errors. Yes, I’m a Phillies fan, but I would’ve just stopped reading altogether if this was another team’s review. It’s just a bad read, honestly. It’s unprofessional.
Not to mention, they listed Gibson as the #3 starter, omitted the Phils’ 2nd best pitcher in ’21 (Suarez) and Stott from the article, and still have Quinn as part of the team. Just disappointing, as I usually enjoys these articles over the offseason.
The Phillies expected a lot more from their homegrown talent. It’s almost impossible to conceive how little they got in that regard. Even Nola, the best of the homegrown talent, regressed. They need to add pieces to make up for that lack of production and to do that they need to be willing to go over the luxury tax, something they have never done. Ironically the Mets are in a very similar situation and they’re spending their way out of it.
They are spending. It remains to be seen if it’s “out of it” …or in deeper!
They hardly spent at all this offseason, but of course it’s still very early. It seems odd that they were abnormally quiet before the Knebel signing. Lots of talent off the board, but they still have time to make a splash after the CBA.
Sorry. By they, I meant the Mets.
Oh yea. I see what you mean now. My apologies.
I mentioned this at the time the Phillies signed Harper and when the Mets choose Brodie as their gm. The hardest way to win in baseball currently is to take a middling team and thread the needle to major contender. For several reasons. Generally the teams below you are tanking so in a year or two they’re going to have impactful young cheap players outperforming your aging roster. Teams above you are loaded with better depth than you so in order to compete you’ve gotta either sign expensive free agents or make trades. Either way your borrowing in the future to pay for today and today even spending money and or trades the braves are still better than you. Phillies and Mets have both spent a ton of money the last couple years to not be very good. That’s a epic fail in today’s baseball. Both still might need a tank and the longer they avoided it, might mean the longer they go without winning. Now if you say well the Phillies did tank and didn’t have anything to show for it. Excellent point. That’s why management shouldn’t ever have been given the ok for the Harper or Realmuto deal in the first place. If you’ve gotta increase your budget by 25-50 million just to get to .500% than you failed and don’t have any business in signing any muti year free agents.
For all the hate teams get for wanting to build the best farm systems there seems to be a direct correlation to going to the World Series shortly after having number 1 farm. See Astros, Cubs, Redsox, Rays, Braves for recent examples.
Y’all in trouble.
Last time Sleepy Joe won his division was 2012. Most overrated mgr in baseball.
Not a fan of Girardi, but I also think a manger’s influence is often overrated. You’re limited by the talent on your roster.
I’m a Joe G guy.
The Yanks – with many of the same players – are a brutal club to watch when it comes to fundamentals under Boone as opposed to when Girardi was managing us. Terrible fielding, horrific base running
Also, Boone lets the front office dictate his bullpen use. Whereas Girardi did not. Cost us too. Example: in ’17 when Chapman went through a meltdown, Joe G promptly took him out of the closers role. Last year when he imploded for awhile, the computer guys insisted he keep pitching the 9th. Lost a few games due to just that.
Finally my personal semi-sketchy HOTTAKE: Yanks played harder under him. Unprovable, but it’s my take.
Tl;dr: Joe G > Aaron Boone.
The Phil’s fundamentals last year were pretty bad.
Ducky, we could very well help the Phillies. I mean taking JTR and Nola off their hands would free up money for them to pursue whomever they feel they need. They can reset. I really want to help the Phillies in this way.
I will always remember Joe apparently getting fired by the Marlins for telling Loria to stop arguing with the umpire
Girardi, like his former boss Cashman, was stuck with bad rosters from 2013-16 but always found a way to finish with a winning record. Upper management would not let them commit to a rebuild of any kind while Jeter was still playing. Then they had the fool’s gold wild card appearance in 2015 which made them think they could contend in 2016. Unfortunately for Girardi, once the Yankees got back on track he was let go
He got let go after losing to the Astros in 7 games in 2017. The cheating from the Astros may have cost Joe his job in hindsight because if he makes the WS and won it then he would still be the Yankees manager.
Hate the Yankees, but ya might have a good point here. Fired before anyone knew about it. Good take man.
While I wish they would give Camargo a shot at 3B, a trade with the A’s for Chapman with Bohm and prospects going to Oakland makes too much sense and feels like the kind of Trade Billy Bean would make.
Camargo probably gets that shot, even if Bohm is on the roster.
No thanks. You’re probably gonna have to out together a package better than Bohm as the center-piece for Chapman. There will be better offers in place than that I’m sure.
Ummm wasn’t Bohm like a former top 10 prospect? Wasn’t Bohm like a leading candidate for rookie of the year? Has he regressed, sure but it’s not uncommon for a soph slump. I can guarantee you nobody in baseball is giving up a top 30 prospect for Chapman. Bohm by all accounts has stone hands so a move to 1st seems inevitable. Vlad jr move to first seemed to help a young struggling slugger with defending problems.
Bohm would be a fine centerpiece that Oakland would be silly to over look just because he had a poor season. Even if you do look at it like that, Chapman had a down season of his own so you would think that would level the playing field a bit.
Chapman who batted whole .210?? After all the crying and whining people did last year about the batting averages of McCutchen and Gregorious?
I’m surprised they haven’t pulled the trigger on a kiermier trade yet. If they take on his salary he shouldn’t cost them too much in prospects.
Totally agree
I think if we can sign Correa for ss, Bryant for 3B, Schwarber for LF, trade for Reynolds for CF, then maybe see what it takes to get Kimbrel we should be in decent shape.
I mean sure, but there’s no way they’re doing all that.
I can see Dombrowski doing 3 out of 5 suggestions that you mentioned, max. I can see him signing Bryant and Schwarber, and trading for Kimbrel. I highly, highly doubt that the Phils will sign Correa (I just don’t see Middleton giving another $300 million contract) or trading for Reynolds (Phils just don’t have prospect capital that the Pirates are looking for).
If a team needs to make 5 totally unrealistic trades or signings just to be in decent shape they’re probably closer to tanking than winning.
Hey Brian. You made th classic mistake of posting a real hot take off-season plan there. The Phillies already have some large commitments so I really struggle to see the Phillies land Correa.
Landing Reynolds might actually be less possible. The Pirates are not interested in trading him so the Phillies would have to motivate them. Not exactly warm sales. Reynolds would be so expensive, it would probably hurt your feelings how much he would cost. Keep in mind that though maybe you could think up a fair trade, the Pirates aren’t interested in that. They have to be blown away with an offer.
Skip Correa (why overpay for him with Stott on the horizon?), Schwarber (might as well just kept McCutchen. No big improvement offensively or defensively), and Kimbrel (washed up). The other 2 sound good.
The trouble is rooted in poor drafting/player development. There’s just no homegrown core to add expensive FAs to. Just look at first round pick history. I know it’s a crap shoot most times, but Nola in 2013 is the last good pick… maybe the only good pick since 2004.
@some guy This is it exactly. It’s unreal how little talent they squeezed out of their own system. They acquired Harper and Wheeler with the expectation that guys like Kingery, Velazquez, Pivetta, Moniak and Howard would develop. None of them have and they’re forced to plug holes with money and trades. Only way out is more spending or just blowing up the whole thing, but I think they’re too close to go that route. You have Harper, Realmuto, Wheeler, Nola…etc. Get some extra pieces. Go over the luxury tax for a year or two to see what works.
Heh, I now see you said the exact same thing as me 30 minutes earlier. But I kind of think it’s impossible rot win without an inexpensive homegrown core. No team can win exclusively with expensive FAs, and frankly, it’s not fair to Harper and Wheeler who expected to be signing with a contender. I say blow it up and start over.
Phillies might want to trade one of their top players like Wheeler
for multiple top young major league talent and almost major league ready top prospects.
Wheeler would land a King’s ransom.
OR JT.
They’re not trading Wheeler. Too much invested in top talent not to go for it. They missed the playoffs by what? 5 games? They lost the division to the WS champs. Phillies are a mess, but it’s not all doom and gloom.
JT wouldn’t bring a King’s Ransom, lol. No team is going to trade for a declining injury prone 30 something year old catcher with a bad 25+ million a year contract. The Phillies would be lucky to get a mid level prospect for some team to take on that albatross of a contract.
That has to smart?
@carlos15 It was explained earlier. I’ll quote it here.
Sir Gradesalot
December 4, 2021
tstats,
It’s an old school phrase that means that something hurts or stings. So in the context of the article, he is saying that Harper had to feel pretty crappy not making it to the postseason despite having one of best seasons of his career.
They spent so much on King Harper and all their prized position players that the Phillies didn’t prioritize pitching, the one ingredient necessary to win games. Unless they start investing in good pitching, they will remain a .500 team.
And it’s not just about buying the best players; that seldom works.
This just isn’t true. They signed Wheeler after Harper and “king” Harper makes 25MM a year, leaving them plenty of room to spend elsewhere. Really the only bad contracts they gave out were for Arrieta and McCutchen. Both off the books now.
Bryce Harper’s deal was specifically structured to give the team flexibility to spend elsewhere. Their rotation is actually pretty solid, in fact it’s actually the least of their concerns. It’s the bullpen that needs major work. After the bullpen, hitting and defense are weak spots. To put it simply, Harper’s contract is not the root of the Phillies’ problems
Bryce Harper’s deal is bad mostly because of years of control. They’ll be paying him forever. As for the rotation, I only know of Nola. Anyone else hasn’t sustainably been well. Wheeler had a good couple years but not thinking he’s sustainable.
I call them the .500 Phil’s. Predicted they’d be .500 and I was off by two games but close.
I still say the Marlins have the best rotation and young core going into 2022.
Harper will be 39 when that contract is ends. Not too far off from guys like Seager and Semien who just signed and Harper has a much better track record than both of them. Wheeler has always been good he just had health issues with the Mets. At this point in time he’s clearly the Phillies best pitcher and one of the handful of legit aces in the league. The rest of the team is mediocre but those two are definitely not to blame. In fact the Phillies probably would have been a 90 loss team without them
Yeah, Wheeler is good now that I looked up his stats. Still, outside him and Nola, not sure what.
Gibson, Efflin, and Suarez are all solid options behind Wheeler and Nola. It’s not a great rotation but it’s pretty solid and probably the best the Phillies have had in about a decade
Stale, tired, inaccurate take on this team.
That has to smart was a common phrase from older people in the 90s. crazy that younger people don’t remember it
Younger people may not have been born in the 20th century. Someone who was a single digit in the 90s likely wouldn’t remember it either.
Phrases tend to live on in a way. Kids have parents, grandparents, etc. It’s actually odd if people don’t know something like that. Not impossible, just odd.
Roman Quinn was DFA’d. He should be removed from projected arbitration section.
I guess MLB Trade Rumors is bored. So they write boring ass stories
This is part of their outseason outlook series. Every team gets one. Phillies have done very little this offseason so their outlook is what it is.
I mean you have to at least MENTION Ranger Suarez in this article, shouldn’t you?
I will never understand why so many people don’t like Bryce Harper and think he is overrated. 2 x MVP, a steady 30 HR – 100RBI player, stays relatively healthy most of the time and has a canon of an arm. Plus, he is one of the most patient hitter in the game and a top 10 OBP league wide. Why is he considered overrated ?
People love to hate when you’re on top. And he has nice hair. Haters gonna hate.
He’s one of the top talents in the game. I think they get frustrated because he doesn’t perform to the same level every year (a la Trout). Reality is that he’s still a superstar, he’s just not the top performer every year.
No team is stuck in neutral more than the Phillies. Their rebuild was a massive failure because they can’t develop homegrown talent at all. Gotta spend your way to relevanc and that’s not a formula for success. Harper and Wheeler were fantastic signings and it’s done nothing to move their contention needle.
They destroyed it with trades
The Mets did it in 2015. Padres just botched everything. And now the Marlins are doing it with the trades they just made
Look at what the Braves did. Nothing. No trades
Who did the Phillies trade that would have made a difference? The trades were not that bad. Their problem has been drafting and development.
Phillies haven’t really traded anyone of value outside of Spencer Howard who didn’t seem to pan out yet, and they got a prospect back for him. So it really hasn’t been bad trades. Just bad drafting and development.
Would you rather JP Crawford back instead of Jean? I wonder if our SS woes would have been solved. Of course then we would have kept Rhys in LF because of Santana…eek.
Hard to say. Segura is a better hitter and a plus defender at 2B. Crawford is a better defender at a premium position. The more I look at the trade, the more it feels like push. The lower salary commitment and control would be nice, but they’ll be free of Jean’s contract in a year and Stott could conceivably slide over to second if they make another addition at SS.
Actually, the Braves made several trades that ended up saving their season.
Howard looked like the top pitching prospect in the game last spring training
And then they banished him to minor league camp instead of putting him into a rotation spot which he clearly earned coming out of spring
Then when they finally did call him up they didn’t even let him pitch because of innings limitations policies
After ruining him, they then trade him for Kyle Gibson
Total mismanagement of a top pitching prospect
That’s definitely not what happened. It wasn’t innings limits. He couldn’t pitch past the second losing all velocity and control. You should look up the trade because they got more than that…
After the first inning, Howard looked like shlt.
Yeah because of the quick hook nonsense. It’s exactly my point. They never gave him a fair chance. The quick hook was coming either way
He was throwing an effortless 98 in spring training. Looked utterly dominant. Was never given a chance to compete
This is the problem in today’s game. It’s regressing the other way. If you’re not trying to pitch 7+ then it regresses to 5, then 4.
Guys can no longer pitch more than 4 innings now
Another talent ruined by nerd managing and fear managing
Camden, not sure you were paying attention..something very wrong with him..His first innings were always dominant…then, he’d start the second just as good and then suddenly he lost his velocity..it was a major drop off…I think something is seriously wrong heath wise…it was like his tank suddenly became empty..they took him out because he had nothing..
I’d sure would have loved watching Bryce Harper play for the Giants.
They should probably offer Milwaukee whatever they want for Josh Hader.
I wouldn’t. Hader is a max effort pitcher with some miles. It’s really a matter of when, not if, he breaks down. Even a minor injury that drains a couple mph from his fastball could make a huge difference in his effectiveness.
Are the minor league prospects really poor? Do Vierling, Luke Williams or Jhailyn Ortiz have the ability to play LF, is Stott an eventual everyday player, how fast can Abel be ready to move up, and O’Hoppe a trade candidate to a catcher needy team?
Stott and O’Hoppe are future players..We might see Stott sometime next season..depends on health of Segura or whoever they have at short
Vierling and Williams profile more as utility guys. Vierling has a better overall hit tool and is more of an OF/1B, Williams can handle all positions outside of C/P. Ortiz is boom/bust, power is only elite tool, sells out way too much and has major K problems in the minors. Pitch recognition is poor, would likely struggle mightily at the MLB level. I think if they don’t sign a major FA LF, I see them going with Vierling in LF and possibly signing a LH platoon partner like Corey Dickerson unless they platoon him and Moniak.
Stott is an everyday player. Can handle 2B/SS/3B, has decent not great range at SS but has a strong arm and could move to 3rd. His bat will play, little pull heavy. Depending on what the CBA agreement is, if the season starts on time, PHI will likely delay his calling up to have an extra year of control unless he’s unstoppable in spring training.
Abel is a true #1 probably the best pitching prospect they’ve had since Hamels. They’ll likely take it easy since he’s a power pitcher and so young. 2024 is probably the earliest we see him, maybe 2025. Delivery and stuff is a lot like prime Mark Prior, hopefully he stays healthy.
O’Hoppe is a year or two away. With acquiring Sands & Stubbs, it’s likely they move Marchan instead. If O’Hoppe has another similar season next year plus his performance in the AFL, he’ll rise quick and high in the prospect rankings. I think it’s a fair risk to take.
I can see the Phillies picking up a few more players and finishing 82-80 in 2022.
Kyle Gibson was NOT the third starter on the Phillies last year. He slotted in behind Wheeler, Nola, and Suarez. With Eflin healthy, Gibson is actually the fifth starter. That’s not to say that the Phils don’t have depth issues…
Nice hit piece. You lost all credibility when you left out Ranger Suarez. Suarez pitched like a front line ace down the stretch. 5.6 bWAR. That would place him among the top 10 starters in the NL. The Philllies will enter 2022 with one of the best starting staffs in the game.
It’s a bit weird to have a preview and not mention Ranger Suarez, the team’s best pitcher in 2021. If Wheeler weren’t the Cy Young runner-up Suarez would be the opening day starter. It’s also weird to not mention top prospect SS Bryson Stott. Dombrowski has said that he should be planning on winning the job in spring training.
While Alec Bohm has been terrible at 3B he’s a young hitter with enormous upside. He fits in somewhere.
Ranger as the Opening Day starter would still be a stretch, but yeah, I agree.
This article read pretty uninformed, (I don’t know how Gibson is/was the #3) and even condescending at times.
Bohm is a bust!!! Sandy Alcantara is a future Cy Young Award winner.
DH?
Nice LOTR reference
The Phillies are victims of a farm system that has produced nothing, or at least very little the last ten years.. The revamping has just begun under Dombroski and it will take a while.
In the meantime it will take cash and a whole lot of the right trades to become competitive.
So far this off season I’ve seen none of it from the Phillies front office.
Even if the Braves fail to re-sign Freddy Freeman the Phillies will have to rely on a down season by the Braves to finish ahead of them and that’s not even considering the Mets who really improved despite having no manager yet.
As a Phillies fan I say it will take signing like Kris Bryant and like trading for Kevin Kiermaier (knowing full well it’s only for his glove) to stabilize CF) and adding 2 good relief pieces and even then it might not be enough.
Hey that farm system produced Rhys Hoskins and Aaron Nola
How does Kris Bryant improve the Phillies roster???? You do realize that Kris Bryant usually sits out more games than he actually plays in. Half the games he actually plays in, he is banged up which has made his numbers at times horrific in the past few years. Don’t let last year fool you with Kris Bryant. It was a contract year, so he played more than usual. The ink won’t be dry on his new contract before he tweaks or injures something.
Watch for Dombrowski to sign a number of “pillow contracts” also working the free agent “bargain bin” in addition to making a few big signings like Kris Bryant for 3B/LF
PHI is dumping underperforming players they will never miss.
I think the IF will make a comeback but the OF does need work.
The pen is atrocious.
Phillies remain one of the worst run organizations in baseball. Should have opted for a rebuild 2 years ago instead of signing Harper. Still haven’t made the playoffs. Roster has no depth. Franchise is void of talent in the minor leagues. Spending a huge amount of $$$$ on just 5 dudes. Holes everywhere. Only way to improve is to spend more big $$$$. Team is slowly going through the process of being average to being really bad. Process will take 2-3 years.
Harper is the best outfielder in baseball. Unfortunately the Phillies only suck 7 of 8 years.
This article was poorly informed outside of the broadest strokes. I know MLBTR is kind of their own thing but I think they should really consult with or do collaborations with sites that cover these teams. It feels like the author only got his information from the comments sections this year and half of them were troll comments. No mention of Stott, Kyle Gibson as the #2?
Phillies are in better shape than this article portrays.
Just signing and trading for 2-3 relievers will make Philly a much better team going forward, Find another innings eating starter who can go 6-7 innings every 5th day will take more pressure off the maligned bullpen.
A few free agent signings like Kris Bryant 3b/LF drives their stock up.
A handful of “pillow contracts” for players looking to rebuild their value are probably in the cards.
Remember, the Braves were struggling and until very late in the season, it was debatable if they could even win their Division or make the playoffs.
The Phillies do have identifiable depth problems, but “pillow contracts” and minor league deals with invites to Spring Training can take care of some of their holes and depth issues until they can reestablish the farm system as a legitimate, yearly pipeline for the major league club.
And, it is not unreasonable to expect better production from Gregorious and/or Stott promoted to big league job. Also, Phillies could move 3B defensive issues to LF or DH.
What about signing someone like Story to play CF?!
The Phillies have signed or traded for at least 30 relievers the past 5 years. How has that worked out? Other than Coonrod and Alvarado (still on the team, for now anyway), where are all the rest of them?
Philly should’ve already have traded for Kiermaier.
And the problem with trying to short-cut the rebuild, by buying free agents, is that you nevr find out if guys like Moniak, Bohm, Spencer, and Crawford can play. If you are .400, you can throw everyone out there and not care. Once you get your $200M payroll, you can’t afford to let these learn on the job.
None of the guys you mentioned were ever really blocked from locking down a role on the team.
Only moves they made that blocked anyone was the Carlos Santana signing,which then turned into the Jean Segura deal.Those moves forced Hoskins into left,and Kingery all over the place.The other mistake they made was Moniak.Getting the first pick,and then using it on a guy who could save them a extra buck to sign their later draft picks.They tried outsmarting everyone,but ended up only outsmarting themselves.
They need a #2 Pitcher then get the outfielder or 1b.Hoskins act we have seen before same with Nola they need to be replaced.Sign top closer and trade for some other pieces.If Hoskins and Nola are so great then we should be able to get a decent return in a trade.